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A Few Notes for Crypto Winter First-TimersThe crypto market is in "free fall" today, as some of you may have heard. Decided to write something from the perspective of someone who's been through a few "crypto winters" over the last 8 years or so. mirror.xyz -- I feel like a million years old writing in this tone - though everyone in crypto knows that a week in this industry is equivalent to a year in “normal” time so being inside crypto-lala-land long enough does warp your sense of time. (The last few years of insanity in the world itself doesn’t help too, of course.) But it’s also true that I've been through 3 crypto bull/bear cycles at this point (I was in the ETH ICO in 14’ - divested most of it since then, for the record) and may have a useful perspective to some - not that these dips don't hurt, but I was relatively fortunate to have survived the last few ones through a combination of planning ahead and a few strokes of good luck. But I will say again what I say to almost everyone: crypto is a 3-4 year play at minimum, and you need to have the patience to wait at least that long. Life is short, yes; but at the same time it’s also very, very long. The first few hype cycles (14-16') I literally wasn't aware of anything because crypto was just an obscure, zany idea back then and people held them largely for fun. There were no exchanges - or ones you’d want to trust your money with, anyway. (Mt. Gox, yikes.) The easiest way to get Bitcoin was to mine them yourself or find some guy on the internet who you could exchange it with a pizza or some other type of bartering deal. My wallet was worth so little at the time that I forgot about it and almost lost my private key, in fact. 🤣 The second one (16-18') I worked "regular" jobs and did dollar cost averaging so I didn't have to touch my investments for day-to-day needs. I cashed out only when I needed it, for emergencies and unexpected expenses. My decision to sell was need-based, rather than speculation-based, in other words. (This one did really pay off and I wish more people would do it, honestly.) To prep for the "winter" today I've spent an excessive amount of time doing research on projects that are focused on utility and community-building…and re-allocated my portfolio accordingly. I may have made a few mistakes but after being burned a few times I think I’ve gotten better at picking assets that will survive for the longer-term. The market is still in free-fall so we'll see if that pays off. As a general observation, I’ve seen lots of projects go through problems that many would consider catastrophic - but survived out of sheer perseverance. There were a few projects started with great ambitions but eventually found success by finding and refining their niche. Finding product-market-fit isn’t easy - these things do take time to figure out, even on a human level. (You can see glimpses of potential future successes when people “buy the dip” during downturns - a sign that enough people care about the project to help it stay afloat.) I have never, however, seen a project start off as a money-making scheme then successfully “pivot” onto making something useful later. Like a song that people find catchy, projects usually start and end the same way; with the same chorus, and the same tone. If you’re still holding onto those hype coins, you may want to look at your portfolio a little closer this time because if the team isn’t actually working on anything serious there’s a good chance it will never come back up ever again. (Although I gotta say, the way Ethereum Classic was able to continue to scam people despite its protocol layer being completely compromised was impressive in its zombie-like way.) I gained a lot of respect for the Ethereum team during the last few drops because they seemed unconcerned and continued to do what they love - building tech. That and they had the support of a development community that genuinely cared about the product enough to keep it afloat during the “hard times” - the #1 resource of any project, in my opinion. But the hype of 20-21’ really brought in a lot of grifters into the ETH ecosystem and the gas-fee problem really toxified the culture there, which I think its unfortunate. (Bitcoin leaned hard into the scarcity model and might be beyond repair at this point.) We'll see if the bear market + Consensys/ETH2 merge will fix that - at this point implementing the tech itself should be a pretty straightforward process - but culture is much harder to fix once it goes sour. If people are hanging around each other solely because they think they might rich, when the money’s gone it doesn’t take very long before they start turning on each other. In both Bitcoin and Ethereum we saw the raw ugliness that came from the Proof-of-Work scarcity model - which incentivizes selfish and toxic behaviors in ways that even its founders couldn’t have anticipated. As Ethereum moves away from Proof-of-Work and into the worlds of Proof-of-Stake, is this the end of the Proof-of-Work era for crypto? Let us hope so. (The military dictatorship in El Salvador, which dared to make Bitcoin its reserve currency is in danger of defaulting now, by the way.) For the record, I own 0 Bitcoin - I sold them off a few years ago after seeing how they’ve basically given up on making any meaningful improvements on the protocol itself - gated off by an off-chain governance process controlled by a small group of miners out there. If you’re comfortable with that setup by all means, but hope you at least understand what you’re getting yourself into. -- What Comes Next? Interest Rates and Proof-of-Stake -- Last time it was Crypto Kitties, this time it was Bored Apes - in a weird way the way we talked about crypto tech hadn't really evolved much since then - probably why 2021 became the era of the (adjective)-(animal) NFTs, rather than a triumph for humanity itself. Web3 was supposed to be about scalable partnerships, not about cattle auctions of imaginary animals - but somehow we all collectively missed the point of why the technology was created to begin with. Some ideas in Web3 that I think still has some long-term potential: "useful" Proof-of-Work , Proof-of-Storage , the metaverse , DAOs, Proof-of-Identity , decentralized video , and of course, NFTs - after it becomes more “useful” to everyone. What these projects all have in common, though, is that they’re not quite production ready and are all in their alpha/beta stages right now. Great potential and great upside? Yes - still, yes. Are we there yet? No - not even close. Despite the hype, the tech behind crypto and Web3 systems haven’t evolved that much in the last few years - mostly because Web3’s biggest issue right now isn’t technical, it’s organizational/cultural: for the blockchain to have any use, the community needs to convince everyday businesses and people to adopt practices like ledger validations, using wallets for building social profiles, trackable and authoritative reputation/action/credit scores, etc. - all which are doable now on a technical level, but needs the cooperation of multiple organizations working in tandem with each other. Since crypto doesn’t deal with physical assets directly, it needs to validate itself through the utility of a service that is actually tangible to the average person out there. Most of that involves bridging social/cultural/industrial divides that Web2 companies never dared to cross. There’s a lot to be unlearned first before we can move onto the next phases of the crypto experiment itself. For now, though, there’s one obvious “utility” that I’ve been saving for last - interest rates from staking rewards. What makes this crypto cycle different from the others is that fiat systems and many government institutions around the globe are in big trouble this year: Bitcoin/crypto was “invented” sometime after 08’ as a direct response to the economic crisis then - but has largely existed in a 0% interest rate environment up until now. When interest rates start going up in fiat - possibly to 1970s levels, even - we have no idea how the coins themselves are going to respond. As the federal reserve continues to increase interest rates in response to inflation (they have no choice at this point), the general public’s attention will undoubtedly shift from a speculative mindset to a savings-based one - as it typically happens during recessionary times. Mortgage and loan rates have undoubtedly risen, but the banks have been slow to offer higher savings rates to people as a whole. Who’s actually paying out interest rates right now? Crypto. If the banks continue to drag its feet, coins that offer staking rewards (Tezos, Ethereum , Algorand, even Cardano) actually have a real competitive advantage to what fiat is offering right now. One number is higher than the other number - it’s pretty straightforward and an easier sell than trying to get people to buy animal jpgs, honestly. If crypto adapts faster than the banks do this year, this may actually when people finally begin to see the “utility” behind the technology itself. -- A Fork-in-the-Road - Which Do You Choose? -- 22’ is likely going to be an insane year for more reasons than one: we’re going to face economic, social, and political turmoil all at the same time, with crypto mixed into that chaos somewhere in the middle. But a reminder that money is relative - a market crash isn’t necessarily a bad thing if the result is cheaper goods on your money, and visa versa. The truth is that most people have been losing money every year even during these “good times” - the feeling of numbers getting higher in your bank account means nothing if the goods you pay for is rising higher than what you earn. So we already know that holding fiat is already a loss, and the one thing that made it worth it - stocks and housing - is about to tumble now, too. Crypto doesn’t need to be perfect, in other words: all it needs to do is prove itself better than fiat, which, in theory, shouldn’t be too hard to do as the Bernie Madoff 2.0s start emerging in the wake of a growth market gone sour. Whether or not crypto will go up or down during the recession this year has been a long-standing debate within the crypto community, and only time will tell which way it will go. But there’s basically two different ways to look at it - When the economy goes into a recession, so will crypto, because: - Buyers of crypto and stocks are more overlapped than not, and the two asset classes have historically always moved in parallel. - The idea that Bitcoin/crypto is a hedge against inflation has not panned out as hoped. - During recessions when budgets become tighter, people are less likely to put money into speculative assets, like crypto. - Crypto existed in a 0% interest rate environment for the most part and if you take that away, so will the momentum behind it as well. Or - when the economy goes into a recession, crypto will go up, because: - Total crypto adoption is ~10% of the world, at best. Still lots of room to grow. - Crypto adoption tends to be higher in countries with severe inflation - the loss of confidence in the banking and financial systems (which is happening already) often forces people to consider alternatives. - Staking rewards currently offer more interest than the banks and will be very appealing to some people as they shop around for competitive interest rates. - Bitcoin was created in 08’ financial crisis as a response to the problems leading up to it, so the emotional response to the next downturn will likely be more pro-crypto than not. So there’s a fork in the road here, and people HODLing crypto right now will have to make a choice regarding which path they want to take. I suggest that people take a hard look at their portfolio in the upcoming months and think about what they’re comfortable with and how they think things will unfold over the course of the next few years. The good news is that regardless of what happens, the inflation-fueled 1970s era was known for a lot of structural uncertainty but it was also the period of good music/art and great social change - something that I think will be a boon to the long-term health of the NFT markets as a whole. I get that we live in a very anti-social era right now, but at the end of the day, crypto is money, and money is about people. You can’t make real money unless you make some effort at understanding how people think. There’s plenty of reasons to think that the industry will do well in the long run, but it will take a lot of work to get there. If the community puts in the work, it will succeed because the opportunity is still definitely there - if not, it will fail. It’s pretty simple, really. Good luck and good fortune, folks. If you need me, I’ll be working on my next project, Teia Surf, in building the types of incentive structures that had always been the dream of Web3. As a lot of the veterans of the crypto industry would say - the best time to build, is now. 🤞🍀
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
1
No Bearish Volume WEEKLYJust to check again, after this month's CPI report, I looked at the Weekly chart & there's STILL no Bearish Volume. Whales are accumulating HODLing & REMOVING coins from exchanges. If you DCA NOW might be your chance to get your stack however you do so, whether through a shopping app, exchange or P2P. Not FA, but if you ever want a whole Bitcoin now is your chance. Should you wait for lower? Perhaps if we've blasted through 28K support below 2020 levels we may see lower. Will you DCA at 20K? 15K? Or will you flee back to the safety of dinosaur dollars?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoQue
BTC/USDWhy is this a buyer's market? 1. Moving averages in the past were bought (200MA, 300MA) 2. Everyone is looking at 200MA. This can break down also. 3. Great support at 13-16k if capitulation is not over at 24k levels. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Next will analyze RSI to spot rare occasions to DCA Bitcoin. This analysis is for long-term investors not for traders. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Have a plan and respect it until making profits. Emotions always will fool human beings. Mindset + Patience = Succes --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by cryptoforevery1
Bitcoin, Determined to Test Low $20Ks | Digital Surf TradingAfter finishing a time-killing move within its recent Expanded Flat formation, Bitcoin has now entered what seems to be an Extended Diagonal/Wedge/Wyckoff/Wolfe Wave pattern down to the lows between $21K-$25K. The internal Wolfe Wave in the pending Wave 5 is not shown on this chart however waves have confirmed that this is already in motion (the DSTC will deliver updates on this internal action). The pending fractal will not allow for new entries to remain profitable for too much time as the waves are due to overlap in volatile fashion. For traders who are determined to jump in on the waves, its best to get in and get out relatively quick. An even better idea would be to use the near real-time analysis which I'll be sharing within the DSTC. As for macro moves, this should be the main takeaway, "Bitcoin has not bottomed out until it reaches the levels of $21-$25K. Lastly, Wyckoff and Wolfe Waves are both knockoffs as the great Ralph Nelson Elliott first outlined this concept :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DigitalSurfTrading
3
Bitcoin to 16k this week!In this video i am explaining where i think we are going to go from here and also i'm looking at the 4 hourly, daily, weekly and monthly chart, as well i am looking at inflation rate chart and DXY. This is my second video and i hope you'll like it. Also i'm sorry for my speaking mistakes, I'm trying to improve my english. And also i forgot to mention that i am still in my short position from the top of the range at 32400k. What do you think about my second video and analysis ? Feel free to leave a comment. If you like my ideas please follow me and like because you can always find something interesting on my profile, i am new to Treadingview but i have 6 years expirience in trading. DON'T SELL YOUR CRYPTO BTC TO THE MOON!!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Mladen94
3
SPX Daily TA BearishSPX/USD Daily bearish. *Inflation produced a higher high (.60% increase in CPI growth from April-May compared to March-April) at .83% FFR which essentially means that the Fed will probably consider ramping up rate increases by more than 50bp (75bp likely) in their meeting next week (06/14-06/15) to stay true to their "do whatever it takes to ring in inflation" promise. This is bearish for equities and cryptos as we will likely start to see more significant layoffs in corporations and less liquidity in capital markets.* Recommended ratio: 5% SPX, 95% Cash. Price is currently forming a Bearish Engulfing pattern as it trends down at 3900; it is still technically retesting $3938 minor support after breaking down below the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3981. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored sellers for three consecutive sessions (and seven of the last ten sessions). Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4175 resistance, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down and retesting 38.06 support; if it breaks below this level then it will likely retest both the uptrend line from August 2015 and the uptrend line from 01/26/22 at ~31. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 40, the next support is at 18.32. MACD remains bullish and is currently on the verge of a bearish crossover as it trends down at -32; it would complete the crossover if it falls below -34. ADX formed a trough at 17 and is currently trending up at 19 as Price breaks down, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to defend $3938 minor support then it will have to recapture the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2020 at $3981 if it is to resist a steeper downfall. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $3706.52 minor support for the first time since January 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3981.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
2
Super Rare chart on the False Top theorySo this is just for fun, but even our "just for fun" charts usually turn out to be partial truths. Sometimes they are eerily accurate. According to the past cycles where we got our "real top" and then double peaked with the "false top" that many analysts believe was due to market/geopolitical and inflation conditions- we should see something similar to this for the next cycle. I call this the "Banana Arc" graph. Nobody else in the crypto analysis space has anything close to this and it is purely speculative. I am sure as BTC starts to move with these arcs you will start seeing more people using it, but for now you got it here first. ENJOY!!!
B
by hbayatne
1
ETH/USD Daily TA Cautiously BearishETH/USD Daily cautiously bearish. *CPI report came out today... 8.6% inflation reading sent both equity and crypto markets lower, Gold is slightly up on the day.* Recommended ratio: 20% ETH, 80% Cash. Price is currently breaking down below $1711 minor support (still technically retesting it) and looks like it wants to test the lower trendline of the descending channel from 05/11/22 at $1575. Volume remains Moderate (high) and is on track to favor sellers for four consecutive sessions if it can close today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1941 resistance. RSI is currently trending down at 34 and is still technically testing 36.91 support; the next support is the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at 27. Stochastic is on day two of being bearish and is currently retesting 46.76 support. MACD remains bullish but has formed a soft peak and is currently trending down slightly at -125; it would have to break below -140 to cross over bearish. ADX is currently forming a trough and is trending up slightly at 38 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce from $1711 minor support then it will likely retest the upper trendline of the descending channel at $1815 as resistance. However, if Price continue to break down here, it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel at $1575 before potentially testing $1426 support (which would also coincide with the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021). Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1812.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC LOGARITHIMIC CHART EXT./RETRACEMENTExtension/Part 2 of my BTC's Logarithmic Chart. Looking at past retracement pattern we see btc retraces 30-40% after every bull market, so if we follow that btc's bottom will be 20k or more, but for that we might need a push back upwards, above the 70k range, around 80k which can be possible if we get a reversal from this current consolidating range, but keeping the macro economic conditions in place a 50% or more retracement is quite possible
INDEX:BTCUSD
by abdulganibareen
1
s&P ELLIOT WAVE FORCAST HEllo guys this forcast bulid depened on Elliot way in forcasting the marketing let's dive in ============================================ the big cycle is i we start the first wave from 2$ until it hit 33$ and them we had a nice ocrrection to 5$ it end on 1933 may we start the big biggest impulsive wave 3 it had a pretty nice move to the up and nice correction every we got 5 waves inside wave 3 now we see the 5 waves end so excpect a down move and big correction on s&P all the way down i d k where we could stop but the idea is this doing lower we finished nice 5 samll waves inside the cycle ( ii ) - ( iii ) now we in correction wave ( IV ) ================================================================== RSI IS BEARISH ON THE monthly that a nice reason to dump this down as we see in the chart every time we havea davergence it's just a time until we see a nice down more correction and this small correction was for the small waves inside the big cycle now we finished them all we enterting the big cycle IV correction . ================================================================== from the start off the wave ii to iii s&P have so big divergence u can check it in the chart
SP:SPX
by moad-legend
2
StoneCo (STNE) following exactly: Wall street Cheat sheet Hello Traders / Investors Seems like Wall st. Cheat sheet is CORRECT. Sad for me I realized it too late and missed some profits in last weeks. Considering my DXY Elliot Wave coun, my expectation is another drop of STNE price where wave C will be 1.618 of A = Price around 5.5 USD. (Best place to buy some shares + Also watch Konvergence of RSI on 1D/1W TF). ritholtz.com Learning every day. Trade safe, take care and enjoy the ride.
NASDAQ:STNEShort
by Longevity_Contrarian
2
btc daily btc made double top in monthly and 2 head and shoulders in daily, followed by a bullish channel after 1st and before 2nd. How am i so sure regarding the double top in monthly? because of 2 retest in daily which is at a perfect angle to the double top. btc will make corrections at 34400 level to before going to 19.4, which might be followed by a short term relief rally but will ultimately end up to 11900 level. 98% of retailers will be out by then and big institions like always fill their bags up which will end up btc to 52k . it will get rejected from that level again and will go to 29k level . it will grab so much liquidity again that the retailers will fomo once again and btc will end up in 72k - 78k range.
by abdulganibareen
1
BTC/USD Daily TA Cautiously BullishBTC/USD Daily cautiously bullish. *BTC has been consolidating around $30k for thirty consecutive sessions now.* Recommended ratio: 70% BTC, 30% Cash. Price is currently attempting to close above $30507 for a second consecutive session after defending support at the 50/50 uptrend line from March 2017 ($29.5k). Volume remains Moderate (high) and is on track to favor buyers for a fourth consecutive session if it can close today in the green. RSI is currently testing the descending trendline from January 2021 at 52 after defending support at the uptrend line from January 2022 at 45; the next resistance is the uptrend line from November 2018. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 87 as it is still technically testing 77.95 resistance; the next resistance is max top at 102.07. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -542, the next resistance is at 312.67. ADX is currently trending down at 28 as Price continues pushing higher; this is mildly bullish and would become bullish if ADX formed a trough as Price continued to appreciate. If Price is able to break above the 30-day high at 32696 minor resistance, the next likely target is a retest of the 50 MA at $33347 (before potentially heading higher). However, if Price breaks back down below $30507 support then it will likely retest the 50/50 uptrend line from March 2017 at $29.5k before potentially falling lower ($24180 minor support). Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $29273.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy