BTCUSDT Double Top in formationBTCUSDT has made a retest to peak of the channel, local supply zone. Now we can see a potential double top. The target remains the same for a 2-D zigzag swing downward. This pattern will be confirmed if price action breaks the neckline in the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Bearmarket
The Ultimate Falling Wedge! Here's a quick look at the weekly chart for BTC. As we can see, the price broke below 30k and is currently struggling to get a daily close above 30k. A weekly close below 30k would be a further confirmation of the bear market and will probably lead to further price dump. There's next to no support betweek 29k and 20k and if the price doesn't manage to get back above 30k a trip down to 20k is very likely.
Is this giong to be the pattern in which the price will continue to oscillate for the upcoming months? - Definitely one to keep an eye on!
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What Is a Wedge in the context of trading?:
"A wedge is a price pattern marked by converging trend lines on a price chart. The two trend lines are drawn to connect the respective highs and lows of a price series over the course of 10 to 50 periods. The lines show that the highs and the lows are either rising or falling and differing rates, giving the appearance of a wedge as the lines approach a convergence. Wedge-shaped trend lines are considered useful indicators of a potential reversal in price action by technical analysts.
Key Takeaways for Falling wedges:
1. Wedge patterns are usually characterized by converging trend lines over 10 to 50 trading periods.
2. The patterns may be considered rising or falling wedges depending on their direction.
3. These patterns have an unusually good track record for forecasting price reversals."
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BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will fall as well. Trade safe!
BTC more market turmoil in the make [short] We expect more market turmoil?
First a bit sunny weather coming days... However.. We keep our bias pretty bearisch,
BTC needs to reclaim at least 34K to get some bullish outlooks for the longer term.
Still we can see in elliot wave perspective, that the premium cycle is not over yet. Therefore I strongly believe we are going to trade below 30's very soon!
So This weekend and early next week, retail fomo buyers will absorb the liquidity, and push price in the B wave higher.. However, we strongly believe that the rally will fail.. and price will go back south!
Retest ATH? What do you think? Comment below :)
Bitcoin to Test $26.8k SupportBitcoin's correction has been swift, breaking down cleanly through $30k and finding support ~$27k.
Strong rejection on 6hr chart at 20 EMA (approx $31k)
Expecting some sideways action and retest of that support given the rapid connection of the crypto total market cap and broader economic headwinds.
CPI (consumer inflation) remains extremely high, it fell within expectations (finally). Unfortunately PPI (producer inflation) came in higher than expected and increased 11% year over year.
The Fed's approach with another 50 bps rate hike is imminent in June as they look at lagging economic indicators that reflect a "healthy" economy with low unemployment.
MACD reflecting bullish divergence, which is likely setting up a bull trap, as market bearish fundamentals remain firmly in place.
While a relief rally is likely following the $26.8k test, the markets are not reversing so long as the Fed remains hawkish as it attempts to rein inflation in.
Price action tending to move in $3k chunks, so expecting a bounce from $27k back to $33k seems likely. If BTC continues its bear market rally past $33k, look for probable rejection at $36k.
SPY, ESBattle of the 20d SMA (blue line) is inevitable going into OPEX and even beyond.
The old adage of "Sell in May, Go away" has been in full effect since the week after April OPEX. Failure of the bulls to recapture the 20sma with two consecutive closes has contributed to the decline (one of many factors).
Again, price will be a combination of many things:
technicals (what we're pointing out)
liquidity
sentiment
fundamentals
macro
Fundamentals are starting to matter in an age where the FED is not providing endless liquidity anymore (QE).
They are actually decreasing liquidity (QT) and reducing balance sheet of assets.
So we know the big picture here.
The 20d sma is declining, but that does not mean price cannot quickly move upwards from here.
If anything, we can expect a game of chicken at the 20d sma (as jam croissant would say) - where bulls and bears alike are battling for control.
We are reaching a critical window here for bulls heading into OPEX. Supportive flows will help bulls IF they can get some kind of rally above the 20d sma on two consecutive closes. That will kick start bear rally #2.
If bulls cannot regain control and there are continued closes below the 20d sma by 05/27/22, then we may be in for more decline.
Even with the big picture in mind, counter-trend rallies will be brutal, taking out stops on both sides.
Be careful here in the short term friends.
Long term, as said - until FED pivots, nothing has changed macro wise. Trend is down until proven otherwise.
The 20d sma and price is just one piece of the puzzle.
Ultimately, price is truth and has to be respected though.
Levels are posted for supports.
For ES: 4040 --> 3980 --> 3850 --> 3720 --> 3640 --> 3500 per Wifey on Twitter. Give him a Follow @ WifeyAlpha.
Rough spy levels 404 --> 398 --> 385-383 --> 375-372 --> 365-363 --> 352-350.
Upside will be 4040 --> 4125 --> 4270 --> 4360 -->4410 --> 4500 on ES
404 --> 410 --> 425 --> 435 --> 440 --> 448-450 on SPY relatively
TLDR:
Bulls need to regain control of 20sma at levels posted above in the next couple weeks (ESPECIALLY week after OPEX). If not, big trouble and more decline incoming til June OPEX.
Best of luck traders.
BNB LONG TERM OUTLOOKSo we are officially in a bear market, the divergence is enough proof followed by a break in the ichimoku cloud. All we can do now is to wait for another divergence or a strong break out to the top side for a next bull run. We do not suggest anyone to buy and hold long term. Short term buys ahead of draw backs. WE DO NOT SUGGEST BUYING NOW
#Notafinancialadvice
Is the DAX toast?Chart features:
1 - It's a bear market at this time.
2- A clear death cross is seen.
3- Now a parallel channel has emerged.
To become bullish again the DAX would need to get above 14712 and stay above.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 5/13/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2022
- PR High: 11947.00
- PR Low: 11890.00
- NZ Spread: 127.00
Evening Stats (As of 1:30 AM)
- Gap: = N/A
- Session Open ATR: 461.97
- Volume: 43k
- Open Int: 252k
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From ATH: -27.75% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 14105
- Mid: 12960
- Short: 11820
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
$ETH RISING WEDGE? (DT/ST) Are we looking at another rising wedge on ETH 1H?
Non financial advice but i'm going to be looking closely to the continuation of this trend.
NonFinancialAdvice
Please remember to factor in if the trade posted is a DayTrade (DT) or SwingTrade (ST). To eliminate any confusion, all of the Title's should include one or both DT / ST.
PLEASE REMEMBER TO NEVER FOMO IN!
I'm here to share my thoughts and also receive feedback so please leave a comment if you agree/ disagree/ or just wanted to talk about a different setup.
Thanks,
QoverQ
Ethereum: weekly analysis overviewWhat I found out in Ethereum price it's crashing too their price and it's below of $1,900 USD.
I hope a crash to $1,100 USD approximately in their price, that will be the first support, And to take note, we could to see a chance to see Ethereum price round to $785 USD if the key and first support breaking down the zone of $1,100 USD.
And then, this it's the monthly analysis timeframe and I see a bearish perspective in the price showing this model of chart that I draw.
Also, Ethereum price it's very key to look their rally in the next year and starting to accumulate Ethereum to make compound interest by year to accumulate enough Ethereum by long term and use them Ethereum to create another portfolio in cryptocurrencies.
One of my favortie altcoin that I want to accumulate it's Cardano by long term.
NEO/USD: Update tradeI'm in this trade from $16.28 USD approx and during the past days, we see a crash in the price and right now, the price it's around $9.41 USD. So, I put a break even at $15.60 USD and target to $6.70 USD in this trade.
So guys, we're in profit.
Remember, during this crash, save or accumulate cash and then, buy asset and save asset or accumulate it when pass the bear market. Because I have planned to buy XRP to accumulate more.
NEO/USD: Overview!!!As I'm in this trade, NEO continue to the downside and I see a more sell-off that the price could to reach $6.50 USD
This it's the weekly timeframe and we see a sell-off and I thinking that NEO could to reach their minimum historical maximum around of $6 dollar approx.
That it's what I think!!!
I hope that this analysis support you!!!
BUY ZONE IS ALMOST HERE Ups and downs could be pretty huge and dramatic, but if we look at them from the bigger perspective, they aren't that important. BTC has been slowly moving down thru these MA lines just by going sideways. And as we can see good buy zone was always between 1st and 2nd line (for the long term of course). The best buy zone would be below the 1st line. Will we get there? I dont know and nobody does, but it would not be a bad idea start to DCA, when the weekly candle close below the 2nd line.
Maybe you can catch the bottom and go all in, but safer would be slowly buy into your favorite coins, while btc would be consolidate between 1st and 2nd zone. Or I am wrong?
BITCOIN HTF OUTLOOK (BEARMARKET)Here come my thoughts on the Bitcoin situation at a macro scale. 3 deviations (65k, 67k, 69k) to bait longs and tap liquidity in the market. We are clearly in a bear market on the HTF and I don't expect it to be over any time soon. Many sucker rallies happening but don't forget that these easily fade quickly in a bear market.
Since the beginning of 2022 Bitcoin has been trading in a range that looks like a redistribution range, again 2 deviations might be going for a third and final deviation in this range before finally seeing 30k's. Obviously order book showing lots of buy orders resting at 30k, there is no doubt we go below here to get everyone to exit their positions. This is where you will see the "bear market has started" news which was happening already before their eyes.
Now reasons as to why I'm calling 24-20k bottom:
CME Gap on Bitcoin futures
Daily and weekly demand zones
20k would be a retest of the old ATH from late 2017 that never got backtested
I want to entertain the idea that 2021 was the beginning of a big accumulation range/structure as we have been trading in a range on the HTF. If that is truly the case we have yet to see the "super cycle" everyone is talking about which will be something we truly have not seen before. Do with this information as you will!
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE [
SPX, End of half of century bull run? Lets hope not !Today, I finally decided to publish what I have in mind for several weeks ! End of half of century bull run? Lets follow !
I really did not want to publish this idea since it is really terrifying but, as it is a possible scenario right now I decided to warn readers to just keep this in mind . This will help us to be cautious when opening long positions, to set our stop loss carefully, to not consider every new low as a ((buy the dip chance )) and to try to manage the risks.
As shown on the chart , Elliott wave count on monthly time frame suggests a possible scenario which is not a good one at all !. This scenario shows that a bull cycle started on 1974 may have been completed and we are just at the beginning of the huge correction down to the territory of shown wave IV. This is one of the Elliott waves guidelines which suggests the end of larger degree wave 4 correction in the territory of smaller degree wave 4.
There is one more pessimistic scenario which gives a chance to completion of a 90 years bull run which if true, may GOD bless the market!.
Lest hope this sell of to be just the correction of bull run started after pandemic low . In this case we will see a new ATH after end of correction but we have to keep it in mind that even in this optimistic scenario we are in final leg up of this long term bull cycle shown on the chart and the collapse of the market is inevitable soon or later.
We have FED Meeting in next two days , decision the will make and the path that they will show probably will direct the market in upcoming months.
There is no way to be successful in trading except being realistic and following facts and figures not hopes and wishes !