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Bearmarket

NDQ prepare for a BEAR market Slightly passing the previous peak to make people beliave and go long as much as possible, but i will be horrifying for all who are long at this time. There will be an event or monitary policy error or move from the goverment for an excuse for this that is going to happen. Right now there are factors that are precursors to the recession, but no one will believe that it is happening and it is coming. My prediction is that the stock market will be in a bear market for 2-2,5 years with target of 4100 of NDQ.
TVC:NDQShort
by sylvestertsochev26
2
The Anatomy of a Bear MarketRecently, a lot of people have been talking about the possibility of a multi-year recession. I don't think that is a clear depiction of the current situation, but I am aware that the idea stems from a lack of understanding of bear market structures, and influence of market sentiment. So in this post, I'll be going over Ken Fishers' rules and conditions that must be met in order for a market to be clarified as a bear market, and how you can best position yourself to minimize downside risk. This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. The Four Rules of a Bear Market - The first rule is the two percent rule: a bear market typically declines by about 2% per month. - Sometimes it declines by more than 2%, sometimes it’s less—but overall and on average, bear markets don’t often begin with the sharp, sudden drop some anticipate. - If a bear does drop by more than 2% per month, there’s often a market counter-rally that can provide better opportunities for investors to sell. - The three month rule: This rule advocates waiting three months after you suspect a peak has happened before calling a bear market. - Rather than trying to guess when a market top might come, this rule ensures one has passed before taking defensive investment action. - It provides a window of time to assess fundamental investment data, market action and possible bear market drivers. - I often see lots of people call market tops and bottoms, and time the market perfectly, but it needs to be clearly understood that this isn't the right approach to understanding the market. - Next, we have the the two-thirds / one-third rule. - About one-third of the stock market’s decline occurs in the first two-thirds of a bear’s duration, and about two-thirds of the decline occurs in the final one-third. - This was the case in the bear market caused by the financial crisis, as well as many other bear markets including that of 1973. - Combining this with the three month rule, it also implies that if you have identified that a market has indeed begun its bear run, you might be better off taking profits/losses on your position, managing risk by increasing your cash holdings, and buying back when capitulation has happened. - And finally, we have the 18-month rule. - While bull market durations vary considerably, statistics demonstrate that the average bear market duration, since 1946, has only been 16 months. - Very few in modern history last fully two years or longer. - If you’re engaging a defensive investment strategy, you probably shouldn’t bet on one lasting so long. - The longer a bear market runs, the more likely you’re waiting too long to re-invest. - If you remain bearish for longer than 18 months, you may miss out on the rocket-like market ride that is almost always the beginning of the next bull run. - Missing that can be very costly for investors. So are we currently in a bear market? - Based on the four rules above, there's a high probability that we are not in a bear market. - Since I've uploaded this post, the market has bounced swiftly off the 100 moving average on the weekly. - Just as the covid-induced drop of March 2020 turned out to be a 'buy the dip' opportunity, as opposed to the beginning of a bear market, the sharp correction we have seen since the beginning of this year goes against the first rule of the bear market. - It’s critical not to call a bear market falsely, and this is a huge mistake that a lot of people make. - If the market is just going through a correction (a short, sentiment-driven downturn of -10% to -20%), you’re better off riding through it and maintaining your portfolio. - It is impossible to accurately and consistently time market corrections because of the way they behave. - A correction can start for any reason or no reason. So if you believe that the economy is strong, and the fundamentals of the company you invest in remain solid, there's no need to sell off your holdings, especially when your actions are motivated by fear. Conclusion Bull market corrections are not fun, but it's important as an investor for you to be able to distinguish bear markets/recessions from bull market corrections. Choosing to undertake a bear market investment strategy and go defensive should be rare and shouldn’t be done by gut feel or by your neighbor’s opinion. Exiting the market is among the biggest investment risks you can take—if you’re wrong and you have a need for portfolio growth, missing bull market returns can be extremely costly. If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
Editors' picks
TVC:SPXEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
54
SPX-S&P 500 CRIES FOR HELP AND STILL IN PAIN!No evidence of a market correction on the SPX. Further indicating that tech stocks will still continue to feel the pain and the 401k Portfolios invested in tech general stocks will still be hurting. I am in commodities for the time being since Jan 1st and that has been very profitable for almost 3 months now. But that is starting to change too and I have already sold some of my oil positions which did great. I also sold my Gold and Silver and will be buying them back when it gets cheaper. For now this is a reminder that after interest rate hikes from the FEDS we are still in BEAR TERRITORY and I believe we will remain in bear territory for a while. PS: Disclaimer I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this TA,(Technical Analysis) are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, trading, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using or reading this technical analysis or site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this analysis, post or newsletter.
TVC:SPXShort
by CryptoBuzzAnalyst
Bitcoin 2021 Bear MarketThe current Bitcoin sentiment is very bullish, the majority of people are expecting the new mega bull run to start now, and are laughing at the idea of prices below 6k (hell, they are laughing at the idea below 20k too). There are 3 main features of any market peak: Good News (PayPal and Banks started to use Crypto, institutions buying crypto, etc) Parabolic increase in price (just look at the chart) FOMO / People irrationally bullish (We got that too) I am expecting the bottom to hit around the end of 2021 / early 2022 at $2,400 . If the drop takes too long to happen, BTC can make a higher low (6k-ish). Timing will be key here. You may be thinking that 2.4k is absurd, but aside from all the Elliott Wave and Fibonacci calculations I used, let's have a look at the underlying psychological aspect. Around late 2017, the masses were exposed to Bitcoin. This is when the major hype began. Tons of people have been opening longs during the last 3 years while Bitcoin ranged sideways with fake FOMO rallies, further accumulating the retail longs. Now, you gotta ask yourself - if the masses are opening longs, and the price will indeed rally now, who is going to pay out their profits later? The world just doesn't work that way, there's no free money. Which is why, I believe that all those retail 'investors' that bought Bitcoin for the long term, and have been very patiently waiting for the bull run - are going to get liquidated once they see new lows.They will simply lose it, sell everything and proclaim Bitcoin a dead scam. If your argument is that "institutions are buying BTC", then all I have to say on the matter is: They are most likely hedging even bigger shorts in private, leading the masses onto the slaughter to profit in billions from it. Remember, they aren't here to make you rich, they are here to make themselves rich. Once Bitcoin gets rid of the extra baggage (those longs accumulated over 3/4 years), it will proceed with the great bull run of 2022-2024, reaching $100,000 and more. Now, of course, they can't just crash the market without an excuse. Which is why the media will probably blame COVID-21 and/or Tether imploding. -Hawk If you are interested in more frequent analysis, feel free to visit the Alien Crew Discord community, link below.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Alien_Algorithms
17
SPY Update! Looking attractive here. The trend is a good friend.SPY had been on this strong up trend since the COVID plummet in March 2020. On this chart you can see how it broke the regression trend to the downside. How low... can you go...? Notable things to watch: - The gap that MAY! fill at $400 that can be seen on the daily & weekly time frames. - FOMC this week; for shits n' giggles. - Short term outlook - on the Daily time frame the 200 sma (in red) is sitting in the $400 area where the gap MAY! fill. - Long term outlook - on the weekly time frame you can see that the 200sma (in red) is coming up on the 61.80% ($318.17). (chart attached below) Just ride the trend & enjoy the ride but use proper risk management. Its all about the journey & the mulah is a by product of it all. This is not financial advice. This is to be taken as my opinion only!
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnthonyGarciaEth
Bitcoin Explosive Breakout Target#Bitcoin appearing to be gearing up for an for explosive breakout breaking out of a MASSIVE rising wedge patern favoring price targets nearing 1.618 fininachi extension putting the BTC Price at around 90k to complete wave 5. Won't be long until we have an ABC correction before we start attacking the 100k & 200k BTC levels. These things take time but I do beleive with so much adoption and with regularoty clarity BTC and other charts like XRP, XLM that have not hit their 4.326 Fib targets they too should go on to set new all time highs. Don't sleep on these dips. It's hard not to be bullish when it's written in the charts.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by mattpickstone
3
BTC BEARMARKET BOTTOM 2022Hey everyone Today i show you my BTC Prediction for the bottom of the current 2022 Bear market. Where is the bottom? - I expect the bottom of this bear market to be at around $22000 - $25000 Where will i buy again? - I sold all my crypto coins when BTC broke the old ATH at 65k-70k because i knew that wont last long because of the low volume we had. I will buy in again from $22000 - $25000 I talked about this 2022 bear market since october 2021 for everyone who not knows. This is just my opinion!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by MM_TRADEZ
6
QQQ Retracement Projection: Is $180 Realistic?$QQQ is heavily weighted towards risk-on technologies. Inflation is soaring, dovish Fed with loose monetary policies is not sustainable in the face of CPI/PPI/Commodities/etcetera reflecting an unhealthy market with price increases not seen in 40 years. Previous significant correction benchmarks: 1. 2020 global pandemic from local high to bottom took 30 days with a -30% retracement. The recovery was limited in depth and and time due to fast stimulus response by government that has led to part of this inflation challenge 2. 2008 housing market bubble took 390 days to bottom out with approx 55% retracement 3. 2001 dot.com took 930 days to bottom with 84% retrace Of note, the dot.com recovery for NASDAQ took 15 years and was supported by unfettered government quantitative easing. The long-term channel bottom for QQQ aligns with the 55% correction level that took 390 days for the housing market. QQQ Price Target at this level is approx. $180
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by R0MM3LL
SPX EMA Buying IndicationSPX has seen 6 instances since 2003 where the 100 EMA has crossed below the 200 EMA. With the majority of these identifying an optimal buy/entry point, with the strategy to look consider the depth of retracement and to scale into positions for optimal ROI once the market recovers. The only major time where this was not close to the lowest retracement point was follwoing the housing market bubble which saw the 100 EMA remain below the 200 EMA for approx. 600 days with the optimal buy zone occurring 2/3 of the way through around 190 days before the 100 EMA crossed above. #1. 20% Oct-Dec 2018, 100 EMA below 200 EMA approx 80 days from mid-Dec 2018 to mid-Mar 2019 #2. -35% Feb to Mar 2020, 100 EMA below 200 EMA approx 80 days late-Mar 2020 to mid-June #3. -58% Oct 2007 to Mar 2009, 100 EMA below 200 EMA approx 600 days from Jan 2008 to Sep 2009. Lowest point was approx 190 days from 100 EMA crossing back above 200 EMA Other periods to consider where 100 EMA crossed below 200 EMA: Jan to Apr 2016 Sep to Nov 2015 Sep 2011 to Jan 2012 NOTE: - THE CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT REFLECTS A DEEP RECESSION IS LIKELY BASED ON COMMODITIES AS WELL AS THE BREADTH OF ASSETS & EQUITIES WITH VALUATIONS AT OR NEAR ATH'S. - Correction likely to be similar if not deeper than what was realized when the housing market collapsed in 2008 given the more widespread high prices driven by absurd amounts of excess money supply with rates at/near zero.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by R0MM3LL
US100: read the descriptionFrom previous posts i expected a spike to 14500, 14400 was hit instead before pukking lower. Shorting all spikes have worked great. Still expecting the 12.000 level. I will keep shorting the spikes. Inflation expectation (green line) is exploding and no signs of mean reverting for now. Put/call ratio on the rise which indicates a more bearish sentiment. High gas prises which will give less disposable income which means that less money are available for buying goods. this will spill over to companies in the sense of less revenue. Tech stocks highly overpriced and are mean reverting = nasdaq100 goes lower. Also we have the War which is still ongoing and FED have yet to hike rates. over all, i see a downward trend. This is a bear market. summarize: shorting all spikes. First level lower is 12000. (keep in mind that spikes are fast and painfull in a bear market, in the sense that we easily can get a spike of a couple of 100 point in short time on the day)
UShort
by Fx-AlphaStrats
3
Is NVDA heading toward 162$?The past few weeks, the markets have been extremely volatile. Some are arguing we are in a bear marker, others still convinced on this being a correction. Regardless your side on that, NVDA is in a clear descending triangle, which is text book bearish, and you can argue almost every tech stock including qqq and spy have formed a major head and shoulders topping pattern. The sentiment is very bearish right now and today we closed in bear market territory(down 20% from the high). We also closed the day, on multiple tech stocks including the etfs, with a death cross on the daily. Textbook profit target based on the base of the triangle would be about a 50$ move to 162$. There are multiple stocks forming this pattern and I will upload some of them after this.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by anamaly
BITCOIN BTC-USD DEATHCROSS SIGNALS BEARS HAVE WON!Major sell off of bitcoin STILL LOOMING..I have also seen multiple death crosses on many other benchmarks. The feds and algorithms on our manipulated and rigged markets is trying really hard to rally and prop of all markets not just cryptocurrencies. These rallies will not hold in my opinion. The BEARS HAVE WON and i am seeing confirmed signals of a permanent bearish reversal that is leading to a possible recession globally. All other major worldwide benchmarks are being affected and suffering equally as well. BITCOIN ACTS MORE LIKE A BENCHMARK THAN A HEDGE. IT SEEMS TO FOLLOW THE SIMILIAR BEHAVIOR IM READING ON OTHER BENCHMARK CHARTS. IT IS NOT A HEDGE ANYMORE AND MORE THAN LIKELY NEVER REALLY WAS. WE HAVE THE TULIP MANIA ALL OVER AGAIN. IT ACTS LIKE THE DOW, NASDAQ OR S&P. Just my theoretical analysis of what i see. Take it with a grain of salt. Thank You, Cryptobuzzanalyst Disclaimer I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this TA,(Technical Analysis) is for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, trading, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using or reading this technical analysis or site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this analysis.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CryptoBuzzAnalyst
What I can see playing out in the next few weeks DOWN TRENDAs we know we have been in a down trend. Ended the year and started new year with a bang and than literally a BANG! First few weeks of the year had some people shook. It has been in a down trend since and continues down its channel pretty clean. not perfect I think we need to fill that 400 gap before we see highs again. With inflation, war and everything going on most of it is priced in but it could still get crazy. I am not a finical advisor I'm just guessing this is what will happen. The last few weeks has been very good (short side) Some people only play one side ( i my self at a time did as well and lost out big because of it! ) I don't think were in full fledge bear mode and not "crashing" yet atleast... When spy is in the low 300s ill say ok we crashed! Anyways Safe trading people! Super volatile :)
AMEX:SPYShort
by ArmaanOG
WHEN THE BULL MARKET WILL START?Hi guys, This is CryptoMojo, One of the most active trading view authors and fastest-growing communities. Do consider following me for the latest updates and Long /Short calls on almost every exchange. I post short mid and long-term trade setups too. Let’s get to the chart! I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome in this chart, Do not consider it as an I higher timeframe USDT DOMINANCE has broken out this triangle pattern now we can expect a bounce up to 5.17% level so if it conforms this pattern then I will post some short call. I higher timeframe USDT DOMINANCE has broken out this triangle pattern now we can expect a bounce up to 5.17% level so if it conforms this pattern then I will post some short call. so, let's see how the market reacts in a few hours This chart is likely to help you in making better trade decisions, if it did do consider upvoting this chart. Would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section. Thank you
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
Bull Market Highs To Bear Market Lows Similarities This will be a quick simple analysis. When we go back and look at the previous bull runs highs and the bear market lows that follow, there seems to be a similarity in the percent that the market tends to correct. When looking at the chart you can see there's about an average 84% sell-off from new all-time highs. If this is the end of the bull market and we are in a slow sell-off to bear market lows, based on the history of bitcoin an 84% drop would bring bitcoin to the 12k zone. Times are different now for sure in the crypto market but this is just a quick analysis to think about. Do you think it'll happen? Your guess is as good as mine. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading, Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by rnaofs