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Bearmarket

Why I have not yet recommended short trades.Traders, As you know, when you are bullish, you go long. And when you’re bearish, you short. Many of you have noticed that my bullish sentiment has quieted down a bit. It may even appear that I have become bearish in the crypto space. Short-term, maybe a bit bearish. Longer-term? Not yet. So, why have I not taken any short trades during this drawback? Well, the answer is actually threefold: 1) I don’t actually know how long this drawback will last. I have an idea. Yes. But, as with any analysis, these are just best guesses at this point. 2) You all know that for whatever reason, Coinbase has locked down my trading account. They won’t tell me why but I think I may have an idea - more on that another time. This means that I cannot transfer crypto out to an exchange that offers shorting opportunities even if I wanted to. But do I really want to? Not really. And this brings me to my last reason. 3) I just don’t have enough bearish conviction at this point to short the market. To go long, you must have conviction that your investment will pay dividends. To go short, you must have conviction that the bears are in complete control and you will be able to complete your trade at a lower price. I just don’t have that kind of conviction. …Yet (this could change). At this point, I am simply undecided with a slight bearish sentiment. This is not enough for me to short this market. Again, my sentiment would become more bearish especially if we drop below that black ascending trendline I continue to reference in my video updates. But even then, my current trading portfolio is restricted. Therefore, under my circumstances and with my lackluster bearish conviction, it does not make sense to short. At this point, I would rather simply offload into stable coins if I become more bearish and then look to re-enter at the lowest price possible. These are mainly the reasons my paid subs have not seen any short trading from me. Hope this helps you to understand my current perspective a bit. Take care traders, - Stew
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
The Great Fall began in February 2021The market has entered in a correction phase from the mid of February ‘21. Although the indexes continued their rising course, many stocks began falling from then. In February ‘21 90% of the stocks were above their 200 days SMA and now this percentage has fallen to 30% (See the Percent of stocks above 200-days average chart – the decline began in Feb 11, '21). With this movement the market entrapped the vast majority of novice traders and led their portfolios to heavy losses. As I’ve written in my post of Apr 3, 2021: «1) The indexes may sometimes be lying. The indexes may rise but the majority of the stocks will fall. This happens with the rise of selected index-heavy stocks. 2) The Advance Decline Line may be lying because it measures how many stocks go up or down, not how much they go up or down. So, for 3 days the Advance-Decline difference may be positive and these stocks will rise 1% each day and one day the Advance-Decline difference could be negative and the same stocks could fall 6%. The Advance Decline Line will ignore the 3% fall and keep on rising. 3) Therefore the only criterion that we should trust completely is whether our own portfolio goes up or down and we have to make our investment decisions based on this criterion. For example, the HERCULES portfolio has so far not followed the rise of indexes, as shown below. 4) Concluding, we can place ourselves in stocks with as good fundamentals as possible by strictly following the rules I describe in my post "You can’t beat the market". However, from now on we must be on high alert and be prepared to hit the sell button anytime (or with nearby stop losses), because the situation can change abruptly and may lead us to big losses». As seen in the charts above, the market is, now, entering in that phase where the indexes start to fall amid the correction of the leader, index-heavy stocks like FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, MS etc. Whether the indexes technically react from these levels and even reaches their all-time highs or not, we are entering a catastrophic bear market which may last many months, even years. During that period I predict that most of the heavy portfolios will have big losses. Only the institutional investors that move the markets and the very experienced individual investors will survive and even raise their profits. Whoever tries to catch the ‘falling knife’ will be cut. The traders have become addicted to tactics of 'buy the dip'. This tactic was so far successful because the next dip of the indexes and the index-heavy stocks was higher, but from now on may the next dip be lower, leading to bigger losses each time. In the above charts notice that, 1) In the monthly IXIC chart the MACD indicator has given a selling sign and possibly the prices will reach the 200 months SMA – bold black line - in the next time period (months or years). See also the GOLD/IXIC chart which may be rising in the next time period. 2) In the weekly Crypto Total Market index chart the MACD indicator has given a selling sign a long time ago and possibly the prices will reach the 200 weeks SMA – bold black line - in the next time period (months or years). 3) The whole market index DSIR has given a MACD sell signal since Feb 16, 2021. 4) Both the VIX index 30 and 200 months SMAs are rising. In the following snapshot you can see the course of the stocks of a typical micro investor’s portfolio, the HERCULES portfolio. In the next snapshot you can see the course of the FAANGT stocks. Notice the impressive entrapping ‘sudden fall’ movements of AMZN and NFLX stocks. In the next snapshot you can see the course of various selected stocks. Notice that stocks with bad fundamentals like JUMIA have already huge losses (-90%). Whoever wants to protect his capital may read my posts "How we deal with fall" and "You can’t beat the market" and strictly follow the rules I describe there in. I wish everyone good luck and over all good health. Disclaimer The author of this idea is not an investment advisor. The preceding content is intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. It is not an advice or inducement for the purchase or sale of the products mentioned. Before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances, it is very important to do your own research and analysis and also take independent financial advice from a professional to verify any information provided here.
DJ:DJIShort
by Gnothisafton
6
Market update - Usdt dominance chartReady for massive market drop? We have 4 main indicators that we will soon break up and this time with even more momentum then previous drop We have not one but two cup and handles (one inside a triangle and a larger cup&handle overlapping the triangle up to the key resistance level (red line)And then as well we have these formations close to main resistance yellow trendline very dangerous setup because we breakout of trinagle we break main resistance and then we break key resistance most certainloy as well and we have to powerful catalysts for powerful momentum one cup&handle after the other - this current formation structure could be strong enough to led us to the bottom which could be 28 - 32k Stay safe do proper risk analysis - prepare to have usd to buy lower - and if you want to short only do with low leverage and stop losses and do it from resistance and now from support and put stop loss above support
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by Mr_TAFA
The rocket is almost refueled! I'm in and you ? 🚀🚀🤠Hello everyone, Cardano entered the NFT world. This shows that the developers are doing something with this project. It is no longer a HYPE project that adds nothing. I loaded my wallet in the first shopping zone and will be adding it in the next buyzone. If we get there and all the signs in the sky tell me YES. We have a very strong downtrend. If bearmarket is waiting for us. I will buy cryptocurrencies, which will wait calmly until 2k24. However, I'm counting on a quick rebound from the second line (1W CANDLEWICK) and start to $10 per coin. Comment and like, Greetings
BITFINEX:ADAUSDLong
by SayMoney
7
Bitcoin "Normal" Bear Market TargetingTLDR: We have at least another 40-50% downside if the pattern holds Introduction Bitcoin and crypto has some fierce bear markets that can really affect people's psychology. To that end I think it would be helpful to show people a general pattern I have noticed and have been using to help me do my personal battle planning. Two Simple Indicators The NVT by aamonkey This version of the NVT dynamically paints zones on the NVT so you can recognize when the price of bitcoin is high or low compared to the number of transactions it is pushing through. Despite all the noise about what bitcoin is, the blockchain is a decentralized payment network and the currency of that network can either be expensive or cheap compared to the number of transactions being run on the network. When the NVT enters the red area it is a sign that a bubble is going to form and there are going to be a lot of of higher highs inbound. Once price has gotten above the upper red limit the party is about over. When it reenters the yellow band the bear market begins in earnest. Lots of trades can happen but ultimately the direction is down. Historically accumulation begins when the NVT is in the green. When the NTV starts to make its way out of the green area accumulation is broadly done and the cycle begins again. The Gaussian Channel The Gaussian channel default has a look back period of over 144, which means it is a very slow and very lagging indicator for what the average price was. So if price is at the center line of the the channel then the average price of bitcoin was roughly the same over 144 periods. Price is now below the centerline, which means that it is roughly down over the last 144 periods. When price falls out the bottom of the channel the channel turns red and we can expect a 40-50% drop. Limited Conclusions First, my conclusions are limited by the short life span of Bitcoin and the lookback periods of the indicators being used. The NVT can be used on lower time frames to find moments where the network is undervalued and therefor a buy to value investors but it still doesn't look proper on the first two years of available data. Second, there is this disturbing rising wedge formation on bitcoin as shown in purple. Since these wedges break down the majority of the time my assumption is that this one will likewise break down. That means that investors looking to use what has worked the last two cycles could be in for a nasty surprise. more indecision comes because bitcoin could have a melt up once it What I am doing and why I believe in charts and patterns. As such I am only taking shorts on crypto and have only had 3-4 long margin trades over the last year and some of them were absolute busts. One reason I became bearish is consolidation patterns did not resolve themselves bullishly or they turned out to be reversal patterns and when that happens it takes a while for the bearish energy to work its way out of the system. I am taking the portion of my paycheck that I use for crypto trading and using it to fund shorts and I don't have any crypto other than stable coins. I am going to be using my targeting on the double top pattern to stop me from being too greedy on my shorts. Once the price gets close to the 1.618 to 2 level on the fib retracement, which is near wedge support it would be reckless to short open new shorts considering a bounce would be very likely. A move from 15,000 to 35,000 is very doable with a short squeeze. Until I see a bullish pattern that is bigger than the purple rising wedge I am going to watch for the weekly NVT to go through the cycle and I don't feel like accumulating, I will wait for price to fight its way into the Gaussian channel and for the NVT to get out of the green. Here is a key point: rising wegdes that don't break down fully often were part of a channel. If I see price action finding support on the channel then that would be a larger chart pattern than the rising wedge and I can play that. Likewise the Keltner Channel and 200 week SMA have been great support before. If they appear to be working then I will look at putting on some long margin trades, but I don't see myself investing and holding crypto for a while. [b/Abnormal Bear Market The bottom of the wedge is the target for a mega bear market. This would probably mean that the Nasdaq bubble pops again and loses over 90% of its value. Commodities soar and people spend a fortune on making sure they can afford the bottom layer of Maslows Hierarchy of needs. If you don't need it for food or shelter, and it isn't addictive it will be sold off. Linked Ideas A broader view on why I am so bearish.
BNC:BLXShort
by This_Guhy
9
DON'T IGNORE THIS ETHEREUM CHART!Hi everyone, I figured it would be a good idea to share this find with the community. I'll explain below what I'm seeing: RSI - Matches the same pattern as Ethereum during "consolidation" in 2016 before the euphoric 2017 bull cycle MACD - Oversold levels not seen in years Duration of Consolidation - As you can see, the duration of the phases circled in white both span about 90 (270 days) Retracement - Both ranges circled in white had similar pullbacks of about +50% Bull Market Support Band - Right before the start of a new bull phase in 2016, the PA trended below the BMSB before breaking out (we are currently at this point when comparing the two) Obviously this isn't to be taken as FA, but it could be a very unique and rare opportunity to enter the market/add to your position as a bull/long term holder. Let me know your thoughts! Twitter @illusivetrades
BINANCE:ETHUSDLong
by acocellaphotography
US30 Daily TF Analysis. More Bearish Momentum!Price has been bearish all month. There is a high chance that it can continue to the major level of support. Daily Candle has closed below the 200EMA which indicates that price has a higher probability of continuing its down trend. Whenever candles start printing below the 200EMA, this is usually a sign of a trend reversal. Anticipating a pull back early in the week but then a continuation to 33600. If price breaks the market structure and fails to form support, there could be more bearish momentum heading towards the end of the month and going into February. 1. Price has been bearish all month. There is a high chance that it can continue to the major level of support 2. Daily Candle has closed below the 200EMA which indicates that price has a higher probability of continuing its down trend. Whenever candles start printing below the 200EMA, this is usually a sign of a trend reversal. Anticipating a pull back early in the week but then a continuation to 33600 3. If price breaks the market structure and fails to form support, there could be more bearish momentum heading towards the end of the month and going into February
UShort
by dreadhead4_life
We Go Down Together, Up Separately - How Crypto Winters WorkHaving been through a few crypto bear markets before, weeks like these ones don't really come across as a surprise anymore. Yes, crypto goes up a lot, but down a lot, too. It's part of the process. But bear and "winter" markets are actually the best time to do research since the grifters get quiet and there's a lot less noise out there to deal with. The chart above shows the diverging patterns of returns of various coins out there over the last few months. The idea of everything crypto being pegged to Bitcoin or Ethereum has largely been debunked -- which is also a sign of the market maturing as people become more familiar with the functions of different cryptocurrencies out there. Although this week we saw a uniform drop in pretty much everything -- including the stock market. Possible explanations include: Federal Reserve suggesting interest rate hikes signals the end of "easy money", Russia's ban on crypto trading and mining, hints at COVID-related lockdowns lifting, etc. Downturns like these are called "corrections" because it's a way for the market to flush out projects that were never viable to begin with, or were running purely on marketing hype to keep pricing going high. That money gets re-circulated back into the system eventually, after a cycle or two to recuperate their losses. The idea is that after having sold, the money will go into projects that are more substantial, after a period of reflection. (Why it's important to have enough patience to at least wait a cycle or two -- which are usually measured in months, not days or weeks.) Crypto investors need to be particularly careful because right now it is very trendy to be an "online marketer" since the bar of entry for said roles is very low -- and there's an outsized amount of people who have gotten into that line of work since lockdowns have went into effect. But in the end, having a product that solves a real problem is what gives coins their staying power -- as it stands now, the most obvious products (not services) of the crypto markets are: - NFTs - Metaverse Plots - Decentralized Storage (TBD) Time will tell where things will go, but given the trends of the last year or so, the idea that coins will recover together in a uniform manner (as it's done in the past) seems unlikely. It's a good time to DYOR, if anything, imo.
Long
by RyanTanaka
Bitcoin Quick AnalysisHello everyone, let´s have a look at the monthly chart of Bitcoin. You can see logarithmic trend line and the price was swimming in the comfort zone and we´re STILL in this comfort zone!!! ( Now take a deep breath and go on reading) What I have drawn are the last two bear seasons. The Price went down up to 86 % and it took about 3 years to see reach that level again. The downtrend phase took about 1,5 - 2 years, before the bulls slowly could take over. Now drawing the fibonacci levels shows us that the price always went under the .786 level and bounced back for a trend reversal. The current cycle or last ( whatever you want to call it) has the interesting fact, that we have seen two close aths with short correction period. With both aths Bitcoin has built a so called double top, which is supported by the fact, that the MACD made a bearish crossover. I would say, that the bear have finished winter sleep early and I will not be surprised on lower price levels down to 20 k ish... Th bullish scenario was a maximum oif 76-79 k USD before dipping down, but the market is exhausted, inflation, corona and many other different impacts made the market lose money. I am sure, that a lot of whales and others cashed out in profit, which is good. Never forget to realize your wins! Give me a like, tell me your point of view and don´t forget to follow me on my social channels :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Cryptopias_World
1
BTC/USD Bull Market PredictionBased on the chart history of BTC, the initial flash crash of 30% - 40% indicates a more than likely bear market. If so, BTC should bounce off the next support range and retrace to the .5 - .702 fib. After the retrace we should expect an 80% - 90% crash during the bear market. This similar structure can be seen in the past and I am strictly copying the historical data. This should be expected until new events and data prove otherwise. This bull run has been similar to the past bull runs.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by RudeDude90
1
BTC technical analysis for next weeksTough days. This is one of the most bearish price action I've seen in the last 2 years there is litterally no retracement only dump even in low uts. And what is even more concerning is that open interest is still very high and fundings are almost no negative after a 50% correction, you can easily guess oi is mostly high because of longs considering of the timings where oi pumped and cause of the funding showing that there is not that much volume in short in comparison to longs. In addition as I showed in my last ta SP500 is pretty bearish and as we know how much its correlate to BTC... I'm pretty scared that we slow dump till we trigger a major liquidation cascade because of the lack of buyers and of the bulls being too leveraged. So I think a retest of the "2021 biggest support" is very likely at this point I almost want to say inevitable but it would be disrespecting a major trading rule "nothing is 100% sure". After we've retested the support I think there is 2 possibilities it's difficult to say which one is the most likely at this point we'll see in the next weeks but the 2 possibilities in my opinion are : -we trigger a major liquidation cascade and goes below the major support but smart money is using liquidity to massively market buying, making a sfp and bull market can resume. -we trigger a major liquidation cascade and goes below the support but sadly price is still considered too high for the institutions so we just pullback and then continue to dump till the next major support where the demand should be very high. Have a good day and good luck is this hard market.
Short
by JuicY-trading
BTC hodlers dont want to see thisToday I want to poke my BTC friends a bit. This is a BTC supercycle count and we can clearly identify large five waves. Keep in mind that this chart completely avoids fundamentals. We all know that as long as there is a demand for BTC it will go up thanks to the tokenomics (halving events = fixed supply cap). Moreover, this is long-term chart and it may take a while to truly come true. However, currently it is valid so we should keep it at least at the back in our heads. Is HODL a lifestyle?
BNC:BLXShort
by Tradern53
3
BTC 2021 bull run post mortem BTCUSD vs TOTALMKT CAPHere is my run down from the 2020/21 crypto bull market cycle, this cycle followed the classic bitcoin post-halving bull run . Part 1: Bull run- - classic BTC/crypto rally (huge% gains, mass euphoria, lots of new investors, parabolic curve) - however, the top was unlike previous cycles with a distribution range compared with the highly anticipated and previously clear blow off tops - Increased institutional involvement in the market compared with '13/'17 bull runs. - Increased retail involvement in the market - (diamond hands mentality amongst masses= stubborn market liquidity) - no need for blow off top in 2021 run due to relatively stubborn market liquidity + more efficient and controlled order flow/price action due to institutional presence in market EFFICIENT + OPTIMAL ORANGE JUICING INVOLVES APPLYING CONSISTENT FORCE, NOT INSTANT FORCE-(hitting it with a hammer) EFFICIENT + OPTIMAL MARKET LIQUIDITY EXTRACTION INVOLVES CONSISTENT FORCE, NOT INSTANT FORCE-(crashing prices down rapidly) SMART MONEY MAKES(TAKES) MONEY IN AN ORGANISED, CONTROLLED AND EFFICIENT MANNER Part 2: Re Accumulation-ALT season SMART MONEY LOCATES ORANGES WAITING TO BE JUICED - after the major may '21 sell off, the market moved low and sideways for 2 months whilst the NFT hype was boiling up - NFT hype goes crazy, and the market runs it up again - Entire crypto market grows and reaches beyond BTC/ETH APRIL ATHs in a unprecedented (diverging double top-style) manner What next?? - The bull run for this cycle is over - As we saw in the bull run, the bear market of this cycle is likely to display new chart and trend characteristics due to the mass influx of both new institutional and retail investors and the widespread adoption of NFTS and cryptocurrencies. - I held positions in various crypto throughout various stages of this cycle and have taken all positions off of the table as of mid november. I firmly believe in the future market growth of BTC and crypto as an investment vehicle but wether you are retail or institutional: THE GOAL IS TO SQUEEZE YOUR ORANGES IN THE MOST EFFICIENT WAY POSSIBLE Peace people, enjoy your profits 🚀🌚
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by charlitostrades
3
Will History repeat itself? With uncertainty in the air the market not just AMC and other memestock in general is panic selling. Major general market as well is bearish, such as the SPY for example and including stocks like NFLX had recently suffers a lot downside. However I think this is the perfect catalyst for AMC short squeeze imo. Will 2008 Volkswagen occur again this year? Nobody knows. If we are to fall to $14, or $7, AMC may experience a long consolidation before a rally again. Bad for swing trader, daytrader that are bullish, but good for shares buying at lower price.
NYSE:AMC
by gojira91
1
"Get in on time and get out on time"This post marks about my 1 year anniversary on Tradingview and my first year of crypto trading. I have spent over 80% of the last year analysing charts, researching projects and learning the ins and outs of trading... It's been a wild ride! From catching the Ethereum and Bitcoin tops back in April and May and shorting till the depths of fear and capitulation to the resurgence of crypto towards the upthrust after distribution back in November 2021. It was a steep learning curve but I've made to become a profitable trader and paying my bills from these magic internet currencies - and above all; I think it's a lot of fun! Reflecting on everything I've learned, I think I can summarize it to one rule and one rule only: "Get in on time and get out on time." The time to get out came for me back in early December, when I launched my first warning for a potential bear market. A scenario that seems to unfold right in front of our eyes at this very moment. If you cut through the noise and the hype, you see a clear picture: We have been in a mega bull market since December 2018 and we were catapulted off the March 2020 spring. Monetary expansion and the shift towards the fourth industrial revolution - where data will be the new oil - have created the reappearance of crypto on the mainstage. The future for the crypto industry is bright and we are onto the next stage of mass adoption for the next decade to come. However technology changes fast. What is obvious today, might be irrelevant tomorrow. The transition towards day to day use cases and adoption of the "no-coiners" has yet to come to fruition. A narrative for the future. The narrative of today is exhaustion. The central banks have exhausted their ability for monetary expansion and have been hit with record inflation, the corporations have exhausted any more reason for higher valuations - many CEO's have jumped ship at all time highs - retail exhausted their bank accounts, the dips have been bought and thus institutions have exhausted their exit liquidity. Market makers were not shy in their mark up phase and they won't be shy in their mark down phase. They have come prepared, striking everyone at surprise - again. Currently, there is nothing left for them than the play the dirty game and chop around to hunt for liquidity before they continue the trend. With the surprise pump of over 100% on European yields, the quarterly interest hikes and the tapering of the federal reserve as well as the peak formations on most stocks, indexes and cryptocurrencies, uncertainty and disbelief are here. Where the world's richest CEO has already jumped ship together with many of his fellow competitors, we are waiting for who is next - the market is not waiting for; if the trigger gets pulled, but when - who will pull the trigger? Who is the first to get a margin call? What will Michael Saylor do when Bitcoin creeps towards his average buy in price? How will investors react when yearly reports fall behind expectations? And how do governments and central banks manage their balances in a economy floating on depth and inflation? As always in trading, we don't know anything for sure but what we do know is that the market is hot - and historically speaking - it is not a bad time for a cool off period. So, ask yourself: "is it a good time to get in or to get out?" You will know the answer... IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
SP:SPXShort
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
2