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Bearmarket

Bitcoin "Normal" Bear Market TargetingTLDR: We have at least another 40-50% downside if the pattern holds Introduction Bitcoin and crypto has some fierce bear markets that can really affect people's psychology. To that end I think it would be helpful to show people a general pattern I have noticed and have been using to help me do my personal battle planning. Two Simple Indicators The NVT by aamonkey This version of the NVT dynamically paints zones on the NVT so you can recognize when the price of bitcoin is high or low compared to the number of transactions it is pushing through. Despite all the noise about what bitcoin is, the blockchain is a decentralized payment network and the currency of that network can either be expensive or cheap compared to the number of transactions being run on the network. When the NVT enters the red area it is a sign that a bubble is going to form and there are going to be a lot of of higher highs inbound. Once price has gotten above the upper red limit the party is about over. When it reenters the yellow band the bear market begins in earnest. Lots of trades can happen but ultimately the direction is down. Historically accumulation begins when the NVT is in the green. When the NTV starts to make its way out of the green area accumulation is broadly done and the cycle begins again. The Gaussian Channel The Gaussian channel default has a look back period of over 144, which means it is a very slow and very lagging indicator for what the average price was. So if price is at the center line of the the channel then the average price of bitcoin was roughly the same over 144 periods. Price is now below the centerline, which means that it is roughly down over the last 144 periods. When price falls out the bottom of the channel the channel turns red and we can expect a 40-50% drop. Limited Conclusions First, my conclusions are limited by the short life span of Bitcoin and the lookback periods of the indicators being used. The NVT can be used on lower time frames to find moments where the network is undervalued and therefor a buy to value investors but it still doesn't look proper on the first two years of available data. Second, there is this disturbing rising wedge formation on bitcoin as shown in purple. Since these wedges break down the majority of the time my assumption is that this one will likewise break down. That means that investors looking to use what has worked the last two cycles could be in for a nasty surprise. more indecision comes because bitcoin could have a melt up once it What I am doing and why I believe in charts and patterns. As such I am only taking shorts on crypto and have only had 3-4 long margin trades over the last year and some of them were absolute busts. One reason I became bearish is consolidation patterns did not resolve themselves bullishly or they turned out to be reversal patterns and when that happens it takes a while for the bearish energy to work its way out of the system. I am taking the portion of my paycheck that I use for crypto trading and using it to fund shorts and I don't have any crypto other than stable coins. I am going to be using my targeting on the double top pattern to stop me from being too greedy on my shorts. Once the price gets close to the 1.618 to 2 level on the fib retracement, which is near wedge support it would be reckless to short open new shorts considering a bounce would be very likely. A move from 15,000 to 35,000 is very doable with a short squeeze. Until I see a bullish pattern that is bigger than the purple rising wedge I am going to watch for the weekly NVT to go through the cycle and I don't feel like accumulating, I will wait for price to fight its way into the Gaussian channel and for the NVT to get out of the green. Here is a key point: rising wegdes that don't break down fully often were part of a channel. If I see price action finding support on the channel then that would be a larger chart pattern than the rising wedge and I can play that. Likewise the Keltner Channel and 200 week SMA have been great support before. If they appear to be working then I will look at putting on some long margin trades, but I don't see myself investing and holding crypto for a while. [b/Abnormal Bear Market The bottom of the wedge is the target for a mega bear market. This would probably mean that the Nasdaq bubble pops again and loses over 90% of its value. Commodities soar and people spend a fortune on making sure they can afford the bottom layer of Maslows Hierarchy of needs. If you don't need it for food or shelter, and it isn't addictive it will be sold off. Linked Ideas A broader view on why I am so bearish.
BNC:BLXShort
by This_Guhy
9
DON'T IGNORE THIS ETHEREUM CHART!Hi everyone, I figured it would be a good idea to share this find with the community. I'll explain below what I'm seeing: RSI - Matches the same pattern as Ethereum during "consolidation" in 2016 before the euphoric 2017 bull cycle MACD - Oversold levels not seen in years Duration of Consolidation - As you can see, the duration of the phases circled in white both span about 90 (270 days) Retracement - Both ranges circled in white had similar pullbacks of about +50% Bull Market Support Band - Right before the start of a new bull phase in 2016, the PA trended below the BMSB before breaking out (we are currently at this point when comparing the two) Obviously this isn't to be taken as FA, but it could be a very unique and rare opportunity to enter the market/add to your position as a bull/long term holder. Let me know your thoughts! Twitter @illusivetrades
BINANCE:ETHUSDLong
by acocellaphotography
US30 Daily TF Analysis. More Bearish Momentum!Price has been bearish all month. There is a high chance that it can continue to the major level of support. Daily Candle has closed below the 200EMA which indicates that price has a higher probability of continuing its down trend. Whenever candles start printing below the 200EMA, this is usually a sign of a trend reversal. Anticipating a pull back early in the week but then a continuation to 33600. If price breaks the market structure and fails to form support, there could be more bearish momentum heading towards the end of the month and going into February. 1. Price has been bearish all month. There is a high chance that it can continue to the major level of support 2. Daily Candle has closed below the 200EMA which indicates that price has a higher probability of continuing its down trend. Whenever candles start printing below the 200EMA, this is usually a sign of a trend reversal. Anticipating a pull back early in the week but then a continuation to 33600 3. If price breaks the market structure and fails to form support, there could be more bearish momentum heading towards the end of the month and going into February
UShort
by dreadhead4_life
We Go Down Together, Up Separately - How Crypto Winters WorkHaving been through a few crypto bear markets before, weeks like these ones don't really come across as a surprise anymore. Yes, crypto goes up a lot, but down a lot, too. It's part of the process. But bear and "winter" markets are actually the best time to do research since the grifters get quiet and there's a lot less noise out there to deal with. The chart above shows the diverging patterns of returns of various coins out there over the last few months. The idea of everything crypto being pegged to Bitcoin or Ethereum has largely been debunked -- which is also a sign of the market maturing as people become more familiar with the functions of different cryptocurrencies out there. Although this week we saw a uniform drop in pretty much everything -- including the stock market. Possible explanations include: Federal Reserve suggesting interest rate hikes signals the end of "easy money", Russia's ban on crypto trading and mining, hints at COVID-related lockdowns lifting, etc. Downturns like these are called "corrections" because it's a way for the market to flush out projects that were never viable to begin with, or were running purely on marketing hype to keep pricing going high. That money gets re-circulated back into the system eventually, after a cycle or two to recuperate their losses. The idea is that after having sold, the money will go into projects that are more substantial, after a period of reflection. (Why it's important to have enough patience to at least wait a cycle or two -- which are usually measured in months, not days or weeks.) Crypto investors need to be particularly careful because right now it is very trendy to be an "online marketer" since the bar of entry for said roles is very low -- and there's an outsized amount of people who have gotten into that line of work since lockdowns have went into effect. But in the end, having a product that solves a real problem is what gives coins their staying power -- as it stands now, the most obvious products (not services) of the crypto markets are: - NFTs - Metaverse Plots - Decentralized Storage (TBD) Time will tell where things will go, but given the trends of the last year or so, the idea that coins will recover together in a uniform manner (as it's done in the past) seems unlikely. It's a good time to DYOR, if anything, imo.
Long
by RyanTanaka
Bitcoin Quick AnalysisHello everyone, let´s have a look at the monthly chart of Bitcoin. You can see logarithmic trend line and the price was swimming in the comfort zone and we´re STILL in this comfort zone!!! ( Now take a deep breath and go on reading) What I have drawn are the last two bear seasons. The Price went down up to 86 % and it took about 3 years to see reach that level again. The downtrend phase took about 1,5 - 2 years, before the bulls slowly could take over. Now drawing the fibonacci levels shows us that the price always went under the .786 level and bounced back for a trend reversal. The current cycle or last ( whatever you want to call it) has the interesting fact, that we have seen two close aths with short correction period. With both aths Bitcoin has built a so called double top, which is supported by the fact, that the MACD made a bearish crossover. I would say, that the bear have finished winter sleep early and I will not be surprised on lower price levels down to 20 k ish... Th bullish scenario was a maximum oif 76-79 k USD before dipping down, but the market is exhausted, inflation, corona and many other different impacts made the market lose money. I am sure, that a lot of whales and others cashed out in profit, which is good. Never forget to realize your wins! Give me a like, tell me your point of view and don´t forget to follow me on my social channels :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Cryptopias_World
1
BTC/USD Bull Market PredictionBased on the chart history of BTC, the initial flash crash of 30% - 40% indicates a more than likely bear market. If so, BTC should bounce off the next support range and retrace to the .5 - .702 fib. After the retrace we should expect an 80% - 90% crash during the bear market. This similar structure can be seen in the past and I am strictly copying the historical data. This should be expected until new events and data prove otherwise. This bull run has been similar to the past bull runs.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by RudeDude90
1
BTC technical analysis for next weeksTough days. This is one of the most bearish price action I've seen in the last 2 years there is litterally no retracement only dump even in low uts. And what is even more concerning is that open interest is still very high and fundings are almost no negative after a 50% correction, you can easily guess oi is mostly high because of longs considering of the timings where oi pumped and cause of the funding showing that there is not that much volume in short in comparison to longs. In addition as I showed in my last ta SP500 is pretty bearish and as we know how much its correlate to BTC... I'm pretty scared that we slow dump till we trigger a major liquidation cascade because of the lack of buyers and of the bulls being too leveraged. So I think a retest of the "2021 biggest support" is very likely at this point I almost want to say inevitable but it would be disrespecting a major trading rule "nothing is 100% sure". After we've retested the support I think there is 2 possibilities it's difficult to say which one is the most likely at this point we'll see in the next weeks but the 2 possibilities in my opinion are : -we trigger a major liquidation cascade and goes below the major support but smart money is using liquidity to massively market buying, making a sfp and bull market can resume. -we trigger a major liquidation cascade and goes below the support but sadly price is still considered too high for the institutions so we just pullback and then continue to dump till the next major support where the demand should be very high. Have a good day and good luck is this hard market.
Short
by JuicY-trading
BTC hodlers dont want to see thisToday I want to poke my BTC friends a bit. This is a BTC supercycle count and we can clearly identify large five waves. Keep in mind that this chart completely avoids fundamentals. We all know that as long as there is a demand for BTC it will go up thanks to the tokenomics (halving events = fixed supply cap). Moreover, this is long-term chart and it may take a while to truly come true. However, currently it is valid so we should keep it at least at the back in our heads. Is HODL a lifestyle?
BNC:BLXShort
by Tradern53
3
BTC 2021 bull run post mortem BTCUSD vs TOTALMKT CAPHere is my run down from the 2020/21 crypto bull market cycle, this cycle followed the classic bitcoin post-halving bull run . Part 1: Bull run- - classic BTC/crypto rally (huge% gains, mass euphoria, lots of new investors, parabolic curve) - however, the top was unlike previous cycles with a distribution range compared with the highly anticipated and previously clear blow off tops - Increased institutional involvement in the market compared with '13/'17 bull runs. - Increased retail involvement in the market - (diamond hands mentality amongst masses= stubborn market liquidity) - no need for blow off top in 2021 run due to relatively stubborn market liquidity + more efficient and controlled order flow/price action due to institutional presence in market EFFICIENT + OPTIMAL ORANGE JUICING INVOLVES APPLYING CONSISTENT FORCE, NOT INSTANT FORCE-(hitting it with a hammer) EFFICIENT + OPTIMAL MARKET LIQUIDITY EXTRACTION INVOLVES CONSISTENT FORCE, NOT INSTANT FORCE-(crashing prices down rapidly) SMART MONEY MAKES(TAKES) MONEY IN AN ORGANISED, CONTROLLED AND EFFICIENT MANNER Part 2: Re Accumulation-ALT season SMART MONEY LOCATES ORANGES WAITING TO BE JUICED - after the major may '21 sell off, the market moved low and sideways for 2 months whilst the NFT hype was boiling up - NFT hype goes crazy, and the market runs it up again - Entire crypto market grows and reaches beyond BTC/ETH APRIL ATHs in a unprecedented (diverging double top-style) manner What next?? - The bull run for this cycle is over - As we saw in the bull run, the bear market of this cycle is likely to display new chart and trend characteristics due to the mass influx of both new institutional and retail investors and the widespread adoption of NFTS and cryptocurrencies. - I held positions in various crypto throughout various stages of this cycle and have taken all positions off of the table as of mid november. I firmly believe in the future market growth of BTC and crypto as an investment vehicle but wether you are retail or institutional: THE GOAL IS TO SQUEEZE YOUR ORANGES IN THE MOST EFFICIENT WAY POSSIBLE Peace people, enjoy your profits 🚀🌚
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by charlitostrades
3
Will History repeat itself? With uncertainty in the air the market not just AMC and other memestock in general is panic selling. Major general market as well is bearish, such as the SPY for example and including stocks like NFLX had recently suffers a lot downside. However I think this is the perfect catalyst for AMC short squeeze imo. Will 2008 Volkswagen occur again this year? Nobody knows. If we are to fall to $14, or $7, AMC may experience a long consolidation before a rally again. Bad for swing trader, daytrader that are bullish, but good for shares buying at lower price.
NYSE:AMC
by gojira91
1