Looking for downside :)IMO the most likely path is the one highlighted in red. But something I've noticed is that there has been a lot of impulsive buying recently which has led to those big green candles.
I personally dont have any position in this rn, so i want it to go down because I wanna go long on this.
Although there is plenty of impulsive buying (and the market seems to be in a bear market rally) I think its best to watch it closely and be skeptical because honestly too many people talking about the bear market rally and I think these guys are gonna trap us bulls.
Yeah but if this ends up closing above 200 (204-206) area then it should rally to 230 range. But im thinking itll reject 200
Also this is my first chart so lmk what u think, anything missing? Anything should be moved around? Just let me know lol thanks.
Bearmarketrally
Retail Rally to 10 June Then Summer of PainBars fit pretty neatly, eh? Just a notion. Wouldn't bet the farm on this countertrend move. Get high enough to stop out bears for loss then plunge.
Fibo at 4300 probably be the end of this bearmarket rally. Might get higher, might not. Prior rallies in Jan, Mar failed. This will too imo.
Gamblers' Game; Vicious beast.
NASDAQ 100From the last post, I updated it on 20th may, that it looked like a bear market rally was about to take place, which was a correct call. the target for the bear market rally is set to about 13200 and 13600. This is approximately an increase of 15 pct. and 18 pct. respectively.
These levels should spark a euphoric feeling in traders, where everybody starts to rebuy assets. But who are they buying from? the fund managers are offloading their holdings in every sharp spike and retail are buying them. This traps retail, and saves the big boiz, while retail gets f***t. Also a lot of people shorted at the bottom or between the area 11500 and 12500, so this rally is about a stop loss hunt. I expect some choppy trading to the upside.
I am hedged to the upside, but I am still net short, so if the bear market rally call goes against me, I am still short. and if the call for the downside also goes against me, I am hedged to the upside.
a win-win situation.
the economic situation is not changing soon. China and Russia are further fueling the macroeconomic crisis, and for now, we will see some relief rallies, but when the rally ends, we will go to the first down target level of 10700 as posted earlier.
BTCUSDT short continuesBTCUSDT short continues. All we have to do is hold shorts till the local support. A pullbacck will occurs from that and then the market shall fall from this consolidation, so-called bearflag on intraday timeframes. Down is the way on the road of a bearmarket. Put your money in risk in small pullback on the mid location between supply and demand will ruins your wallet. Minds we have a major highly reliable Head and Shoulders to expect for the correction.
Don't be a moonboi.
Oscillator: Ehlers' Stochastic CG
BTCUSDT Double Top in formationBTCUSDT has made a retest to peak of the channel, local supply zone. Now we can see a potential double top. The target remains the same for a 2-D zigzag swing downward. This pattern will be confirmed if price action breaks the neckline in the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
BTCUSDT one more leg down nowPrice action has been rejected from 88.6% - 78.6% range, 15M overbought. Ttarget at 14.6% of Fibonacci retracement (28.7k).
Why 14.6% (.146) and 88.6% (.886) are important levels on Fibonacci retracement? The 14.6 Fibonacci ratio, wich has a high mean of assertivity, is mirroned by 88.6, which has become an important entry level and stop loss in the market. 88.6 = 1 - X, X = 14.6. These are hidden levels on the standard scale. But you can add them manually.
As you can see on chart, my fave way to use the Fibonacci Retracement is setting the .50 level at the pivot point** that precedes a pullback, i.e. the lowest low of the first downtrend. The price generally tends to retrace at least to the 0.707* level, which is another hidden level. The most common case in the crypto market, according to my experiences, is the price going into the zone between 0.886 and 0.786. In many cases touching 88.6, which can be considered a conservative point for a stop loss. If the price does not retrace from this zone, then a potential trend reversal can be considered. I have considered the range between 88.6 and 78.6 to be a 'short zone', that is, a zone where I usually wait for a reversive price action, or you could say a potential reversal zone.
When price follows the trend after retracing then I consider 14.6% as my potential target. Means that tendence continues.
This complete zig zag movement is what we call a swing, upward or downward.
*0.707 (70.7%) is the square root of 0.5 Fibonacci ratio, wich is a ratio between 1 and 2.
**Pivot points (some call them "swing points") are those areas where important short term reversals take place.
Okay, let's see what happens during this trade.
Thanks for your attention.
BTC Passing Through the CRAB's MouthThis is the awesome adventure of BTC facing the terrible weekly Bearish Crab 's Mouth, Gartley Pattern XABCD. We know what will occur soon. A mega increase of shorts 'coming. Especting a big Marubozu Candlestick in the daily time frame after. ☕ Thanks for your attention!
TOP WAVE STRUCTURE I AM A MEGA BEAHISH NOW 5TH WAVE TOP I AM MOVING BACK TO A 90 % NET SHORT ACROSS THE BOARD !!!!! STAGFLATION FORCES TO BE HEADLINE .The wave structure is in the final advance . as the ten yr yield would be seeing 1.82 or better and the breakout in the US $ At this point I feel it is not a place to be net long any stock indexes .You should be moving to cash at 100% and as well looking at puts at the money for mid 2022 to oct 2022 NOTHING will be moving up outside of short term paper .best of trades wavetimer!
Elliott Wave Analysis: Crypto Market Nearing Strong ResistanceHello Crypto traders and investors!
We have seen a bigger recovery in the Crypto market, but mostly due to BTC and ETH, while other ALTcoins remain quite slow and weak. The main reason is BTC.dominance which is kicking back in.
Now that cryptocurrencies are in the mixed recovery, some stronger, some weaker, it's important to keep an eye on Crypto Total Market Cap chart. As you can see, Crypto market dropped with five waves from the all-time highs, which is first leg (A) of a three-wave correction. Currently it's approaching important June highs resistance within a three-wave A-B-C corrective recovery for wave (B) that can stop around 50%-61,8% Fibo. retracement, from where we should be aware of another decline for wave (C).
All that being said, as long as Crypto market cap is trading below or around 2.0T, watch out for another sell-off that can push the price back to June lows.
It's not about being right or wrong. This is normal. The point is not to lose the money, when you are wrong. That's why confirmation are very important.
In this case, if Crypto market cap starts dropping below channel support line and 1.5T, then we can easily confirm that bears are back in the game.
Be humble and trade smart!
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Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
SPX near ending diagonal EW structure; More Pain AheadEW labels as charted suggest an ABC is unfolding in a Zig-Zag corrective structure:
The 5-3-5 pattern is emerging, with the C wave 5-impulse remaining to fill;
Bear market rally 'B' wave has taken form of a WXYXZ 3-3-3 minute wave pattern, 3 counter waves each in turn consisting of 3 minute waves (minute labels omitted for clarity); the double topping ending diagonal near the 0.62 Fibo is ominous;
100% extension of A wave by 'C' is shown; the 0.62 extension would bottom at ~2140; the 1.24 extension would reach 1400 index price; NB, below: IF 'C' wave reaches 1.62 extension of A, then it likely represents the Third wave of an impulsive 5-wave correction, which would imply a crash to extreme low prices:
This is just an idea for your amusement and education; trade at your own risk; reference:
Education; from elliottwave-forecast.com
5.1 Zigzag
Elliott Wave Theory Zig zag
Guidelines
• Zigzag is a corrective 3 waves structure labelled as ABC
• Subdivision of wave A and C is 5 waves, either impulse or diagonal
• Wave B can be any corrective structure
• Zigzag is a 5-3-5 structure
Fibonacci Ratio Relationship
• Wave B = 50%, 61.8%, 76.4% or 85.4% of wave A
• Wave C = 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave A
• If wave C = 161.8% of wave A, wave C can be a wave 3 of a 5 waves impulse. Thus, one way to label between ABC and impulse is whether the third swing has extension or not
Bear Market Rally PredictionHere is a short term prediction for a short lived bull rally on SPY. It will bounce around the 220-240 levels for a week or so before breaking below and continuing lower to the downside.
Short term good news on the economic stimulus package etc will give the market a slight boost, (many will be trying to "buy the dip" after the huge 4 week sell-off) although the underlying market conditions will remain the same regarding the increase in COVID-19 cases and contraction of businesses (primarily retail/service industry), which cannot be combated effectively enough for the market to have a major bounce back. Unfortunately, the bears will prevail.
Altcoins in DesperationOther than some wicky price action on the weekly, there aren't many signs of a turnaround for the tumbling altcoin market.
Altcoins never retraced past the .236 at about $140bn from their all time high to the bear market low. This is a bear market rally with no convincing signs of a macro trend reversal yet.
A bounce of 10-20% this month is possible. There is a hint of an upcoming Stoch RSI cross although no signs of divergence or bullishness on the regular RSI. We would likely find resistance at the 21 EMA or 200 EMA which have been respected recently.