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Bearmarketsignal

Nvidia - Consolidation Before -50% Drop!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is preparing for the correction: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Nvidia is still creating pretty clear market structure and price action and therefore there is no reason to change direction or opinion. Following the previous cycles, a correction of roughly -55% is likely and Nvidia's recent consolidation is a first strong sign of bearish weakness. Levels to watch: $120. $60 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by basictradingtv
48
Bitcoin - Another sign that Fed credibility is waning.A Sick Feeling in the Belly of the Yield Curve Another sign that Fed credibility is waning. The socioeconomic point of view is that, as the Supercycle bear market develops, central banks will lose their mantle as being omnipotent directors of markets. Whereas in the bull market, central bankers like Alan “the Maestro” Greenspan were lauded because positive social mood was driving the stock market higher, in the bear market central bankers will be vilified as negative social mood causes a downtrend in stock prices. Yesterday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sought to reassure Americans that the series of interest rate hikes that the central bank is embarking on would not tip the U.S. economy into recession. The bond market promptly ignored those soothing words and the yield curve flattened. A flattening yield curve, whereby the positive gap between short-dated bonds and long-dated bonds is narrowing, is a sign that the market is anticipating slower economic growth. When the yield curve inverts, with long-dated yields below short-dated, it has historically been a signal that an economic recession is on the horizon. That historical relationship is most generally related to the yield spread between 2-year yields and 10-year yields, and that yield curve has been flattening over the past year from 1.50% to around 0.20% where it is currently hovering. So, not quite inverted yet, but trending in that direction. However, in the so-called belly of the yield curve, the area between 5 and 10-year maturity, the message is already here. The chart below shows that the yield spread between 5 and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields has declined precipitously over the last year and, yesterday, turned negative. This yield curve inversion is a clue that a 2-yr /10-yr (2s 10s in industry vernacular) inversion is probably on its way. Despite what the Fed says, a beast of a recession may be approaching. U.S. Treasury 10-Year Yield Minus 5-Year Yield
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ferGOD
307
Nvidia - The tide is (finally) turning!NASDAQ:NVDA is about to create a bearish reversal which will lead to a -60% correction! Charts just don't lie at all - instead fundamentals are always an illusion. Nvidia was retesting a major resistance trendline and is starting a significant bearish reversal. Nothing changed fundamentally but Nvidia is already down -25% over the past couple of days. This is just the beginning of another potential bear market, like we saw it back in 2018 and 2021... Levels to watch: $55 Keep your long term vision, Philip - BasicTrading
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by basictradingtv
6
S&P500 - The beginning of the bear market?SP:SPX potentially created a top and is starting to head lower for the next months. We have patterns, cycles and market structure and if everything is lining up nicely, there is a high chance you will be right. The S&P500 is currently retesting a major multi-year resistance trendling, is starting to shift bearish on the smaller timeframes and just rallied +50% without any noticeable correction. In a couple of months, we will trade at lower levels! Levels to watch: $5.500, $4.500 Keep your long term vision, Philip - BasicTrading
TVC:SPXShort
by basictradingtv
8
Major clues in USD indicate Bear market Late summer/ early fallHi guys. When trading its always important to learn/educate to find an edge on the markets. There are so many charts you can access to analyze/compare, etc. Its known that many ticker symbols can be used in certain ways to help understand markets in a deeper way. The DXY or U.S. Dollar Index is an asset that i use to assess Risk mentality. So keeping it simple: If dollar RISES -> it indicates a RISK OFF mentality -> so people leave risky investments to enter the safety that is cash If dollar FALLS in price -> it indicates a RISK ON mentality -> this means peoplpe are leaving the safety of the dollar to take risk in other investments. Im bringing you this analysis to assess the health of the broader markets and whether or not we are at risk of a down fall/ recession especially with tensions significantly rising in the Middle east. So jumping right in. I got 3 Red resistance trend lines drawn. This trendline, in part reflects Bull runs in broader markets. 2 from past history 1 which is associated with our current Price action. As you can see, this Resistance begins at the TOP price of DXY. Price is then supressed from a certain amount of time, before a breakout back ABOVE. Everytime we have broken the resistance trendline. The dollar starts a massive Bull run when measured: The 1st one lasted about 700 days The 2nd one lasted about 460 days. So the question i asked was how does this relate to the S&P and other markets. Does the breakout above resistance from the start cause drops in all markets? When i looked, i was surprised. Fall in other markets does NOT happen right off the breakout. In fact, when i measured after the resistance breakouts it takes roughly 133-189 days before S&P begins a BEAR market. As indicated by black lines. 1st example it took 133 days after breakout 2nd example took 189 days after breakout. We have recently broken out ABOVE the red resistance trendline. So if you consider previous history, our next Bear market i believe will begin sometime late Summer or early Fall. Now remember previous history does not have to repeat. It just helps us find patterns and consider things. It is however possible, if actual war does breakout. Things may change, as it would be considered a Black swan event. However, until it happens this is the likely scenario in my OPINION. Our current movements i think is just a pullback before continuing higher. __________________________________________________________________________________ Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again. Stay tuned for more updates on DXY in the near future. If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again. DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
TVC:DXYLong
by SafofAllTrades
META to $455Overview META is approaching a possible landslide that may take the share price to around $455. An influx of insider liquidation paired with healthy market skepticism supports the possible correction. Fundamentals Overall the company appears healthy according to their 2023 Annual Report. The only filings that I found concerning was the abundance of 144s that indicate insider liquidation. As of late, insider liquidation has been heavily present amongst most of the Magnificent Seven companies (GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, and TSLA) Technicals A bear flag is forming after the rally momentum rounded out and is now beginning to develop a descending triangle. The oscillators don't support a breakdown at the current time so a possible bounce back to the triangle's resistance line around $505-510 is possible as the pattern continues to develop.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by Shepherd_Investor
Nasdaq - Time To SellHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: For more than 14 years the nasdaq has been trading in a super obvious bullish parallel rising channel. In the beginning of 2023 we had another retest of the lower support which was followed by a +65% rally. If the Nasdaq rejects the current resistance towards the donwside and retests the support mentioned in the analysis, I will then be looking for long setups again. -------- I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied. Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. Keep your long term vision.
TVC:NDQ
by basictradingtv
4
BTC: The price getting rejected from the 200D SMA! It's no surprise that the price has been rejected from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) multiple times. Historically, the 200-day SMA has acted as either a support or resistance level, depending on whether the price is above or below it. Since the current price is below the 200-day SMA, there is a high likelihood that the price will continue to move lower at some point. Another bearish sign is that the price broke below the rising channel, which suggests a further decline. Here's the previous post: " Here's a Quick outlook for BTC. This week, there hasn't been much movement, and the price continues within the rising channel. Previously, we saw a move below the 200D SMA, and the price hasn't managed to break back above it as the SMA is now acting as resistance. One way to predict market changes is by using the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). If the closing price drops below the 200-day SMA, it's likely that the market will continue to decline, and the opposite is also true. Currently, the price is below the 200-day SMA, which suggests that it may fall further until it rises above the SMA. It is also worth mentioning that a rising channel often breaks to the downside. Given the current situation where the price is below the 200D SMA and touching significant resistance while within a rising channel, it is expected that the price may experience a decline in the coming weeks. " There are several indicators and global economic events that suggest the market will continue to decline. For example, median home prices are contracting sharply, reaching levels last seen in 1970 and 2008, both years which experienced severe economic downturns. It's important to note that there are many unfilled gaps below the current price. These gaps can act as magnets and pull the price down to fill them at some point. Therefore, it's recommended to keep a close eye on them. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on current market sentiment, it appears that a more significant downturn is on the horizon. This could result in revisiting prior lows (15k-16k) or even reaching new lows within the range of 10k-13k. However, after this decline, there is a good chance that the market will shift towards a bullish phase. My prediction is that BTC will reach its lowest point within the next six months, but recovery is expected by Summer 2024. It is recommended to have a strategy in place for this potential downturn. Many are optimistic about BTC's price, yet it's crucial to recognize that the occasional rallies are creating lower highs. For a robust bullish case, establishing a higher high and higher low is essential. Beyond BTC's price action, numerous indicators suggest a substantial market drop is looming. Consider, for instance, the rate of permanent job losses; each spike in this metric has been followed by a recession, and it’s escalating sharply.
Short
by MBM_Crypto
12
Massive Bearish Signal - Expect a big move to the downside! The present circumstances clearly indicate that the closing price has descended below the 20-week simple moving average (WSMA), a historical signifier of notable bearish market trends. While it is acknowledged that the 20 WSMA is not an infallible indicator, observing its historical behavior reveals a consistent pattern of significant downward movements in price. Consequently, it is logical to anticipate a substantial downward shift based on this historical precedent. The bear market probability index is currently at an all-time high, which suggests that the ongoing rally could be considered the biggest bull trap ever witnessed in the history of Bitcoin. While relying on a solitary model is insufficient for drawing definitive conclusions, numerous indicators suggest a downward price trend in this case. The US interest rate has reached the same level as it was during the onset of the 2008 Financial Crisis market decline. This should be taken into consideration. Despite this, on Twitter, someone claims almost every other day that BTC will reach 100k soon. However, in my opinion, this is complete nonsense. Given the current state of the financial market, it's not ready for a sustained uptrend. Lastly, the market is experiencing a notable increase in fear, likely due to multiple factors simultaneously impacting the market. Based on historical precedent, it is reasonable to anticipate significant downward market movements should prior trends repeat themselves. With regards to DXY The current market analysis indicates a significant double-bottom reversal in the DXY index, with expectations of reaching a minimum index level of 105 soon. Moreover, should resistance zone 1 be surpassed, a subsequent movement towards resistance zone 3 is expected! It is crucial to note that if the DXY index maintains its upward momentum, it may exert considerable downward pressure on both the stock and cryptocurrency markets. Consequently, it is advisable to closely monitor the movements of the DXY index, particularly for those involved in stock or cryptocurrency investments.
Short
by MBM_Crypto
46
Tricks for Reading the VIXUnderstanding VIX Generally VIX measures the pricing of at-the-money options on the S&P 500 SP:SPX FOREXCOM:SPXUSD where such options have about 30 days until expiration. Higher VIX readings mean that demand for at-the-money options on SPX has risen through hedging or bearish positioning (usually both)—meaning that fear and uncertainty has arisen along with expectations of greater price movement (price declines) and volatility. In essence VIX tends to jump during major sell-offs in the S&P 500 and other global equity indices, and it also tends to fall back during long, gradual rallies. Its historic average is about 20. The average of all VIX closing numbers is about 19.4. Further, a VIX reading at 27–28 is at the upper end of one standard deviation from its mean. At the height of the 2008 recession, VIX peaked around 89.5 (intraday) and closed just above 80 several times. In March 2020 amid the Covid-19 pandemic, it surged to about 82. During the dot-com market from 1997-2000, the VIX held above its historical average (above 20) even though equity markets continued to drive higher for years. This was not a typical period for the relationship between VIX and markets with above average VIX readings coinciding with higher S&P 500 returns (33.1% in 1997, 28.3% in 1998, 20.9% in 1999). Understanding VIX Readings In General, High VIX Readings Help Spot Trading Lows or Lasting Market Bottoms VIX helps spot market bottoms. Some market experts assert that VIX is a measure of stress in the system, a measure of worry and fear as defined by various formulas derived from SPX puts and calls. Readings above 40 on the VIX tend to signal pure panic and indicate either an interim low (e.g., a temporary trading low followed by a bear rally) or a final bottom for a bear market or correction. The VIX measures implied volatility from a basket of at-the-money front-month SPX options. Ordinarily, VIX and SPX are supposed to head in opposite directions , meaning VIX climbs (or remains elevated) as SPX falls, and VIX falls (or remains low) as SPX rises. At least some other global indices that correlate to some extent with SPX would typically head in the same direction as SPX, but since VIX is derived from SPX derivatives (options), SPX will be discussed primarily. So the ordinary relationship between VIX and SPX is inverse as shown in the example on the main chart above for the 2000-2002 bear market. Lower SPX lows often coincide with even higher VIX highs. In the chart below, note how the VIX and SPX held to their usual inverse relationship during the 1998 SPX correction, which involving a decline of about -22% from the pre-correction high. As the market fell, the VIX continued to rise. Each SPX interim low was marked by a higher VIX high. Importantly, each VIX high was a "lower high" relative to the final VIX high that coincided with the final SPX low on October 8, 1998. Supplementary Chart 1: SPX 1998 Correction Shows Usual Relationship between VIX and SPX Divergences from the Usual Inverse Relationship between VIX and SPX May Distinguish Lasting Market Bottoms from Temporary Trading Lows But divergences from the usual inverse relationship between VIX and SPX can sometimes appear, and they may signal a lasting market bottom as distinguished from a temporary trading low . In particular, VIX will start to diverge from the usual pattern of higher VIX highs that coincide with lower VIX lows, meaning that SPX will make a new low but VIX will make a lower high rather than a new and higher high. This can be a helpful trick to understanding how VIX behaves at some major bear market bottoms and corrections. The primary chart above shows an excellent example from the 2000-2002 bear market. Consider the penultimate interim SPX low in July 2002. The highest VIX close of the entire bear market printed at 48.46 the day before this major interim low on July 24, 2002. (On the actual day of this interim low, VIX fell slightly to close at 39.86). Corrections also sometimes show this divergence from the usual SPX-VIX relationship. The chart below shows the 1990 correction in SPX where this equity market fell about -20%. Note the divergence between the major interim low in August 1990 and the final correction low in September 1990. Supplementary Chart 2: SPX 1990 Correction Shows Divergence from the Usual Inverse Relationship between VIX and SPX Although not shown in an additional chart, the bear market of 2008-2009 following the Great Financial Crisis contains another useful case study. During this bear market, the VIX peaked with closing highs above 80 in October 2008 and an intraday high of 89.53 on October 24, 2008. These were the highest VIX readings of the entire bear market occurring months before the final bear-market low. A VIX divergence appeared at the final bear-market low—VIX made a lower high of 49.33 and an intraday high of 51.90 on March 6, 2009. This is similar to the VIX divergence that was seen in the final stages of the 2000-2002 bear market (shown in the chart above). Broader Application of VIX-SPX Divergences This phenomenon of VIX and SPX diverging from their usual inverse relationship also may be stated more broadly as follows: when the VIX moves in tandem with the S&P 500, it’s a usually a sign that the trend may reverse . This occurs whenever VIX and SPX fall together or whenever they rise together. When the VIX and the S&P are both going down in tandem, this could present a good long-term buy signal especially when combined with other technical or fundamental evidence of a bottom. Furthermore this divergence from the usual inverse relationship can appear at market peaks as well. For example, when the market rallies higher, but the VIX remains elevated (it rises, does not decline significantly, and holds support), this indicates the rally could soon fail. A rally with elevated VIX shows persistently higher implied volatility / fear—increased demand for 30-day options based on expected volatility / demand for option hedges as downside insurance. This could be a sign the rally is fleeting.
Editors' picks
SP:SPXEducation
by SquishTrade
69
BTC - Soon there will be a breakout!Here's a brief update on BTC. The current price has been fluctuating within an ascending triangle, and the low trading volume suggests a more substantial movement is likely to occur soon. The trend appears to be weakening, and during retests of the significant resistance at 29k, trading volume has remained low. In addition, the CME and Fair value gaps below the current price indicate a potential downward movement. Therefore, it may be wise to brace yourself for a possible return to 20k soon. Considering the unfilled CME- and Fair value gaps below the current price is crucial. Typically, these gaps are eventually filled, making a price retracement to those levels a reasonable expectation. However, it is worth noting that filling such gaps could take some time, although they are usually filled relatively quickly. ------------------------------------------- BTC - Don't turn bullish until this zone is broken! ------------------------------------------- With regards to ALTs: The Altcoin market cap is struggling to break the $620B mark. If breached, expect a surge in Altcoin activity. But remember, Altcoin performance is closely tied to BTC, so a dip in BTC price will hurt Altcoins too. Keep an eye on the $620B mark if you're looking to trade some ALTs ------------------------------------------- Recent Altcoin trades: ARB / USDT: 5% profit DOGE / USDT: 20% profit XRP / USDT: 9% profit ------------------------------------------- What's a Fair Value Gap?: A fair value gap is the difference between a financial instrument's theoretical value and market value, such as a derivative or security. It can indicate a misprizing opportunity for traders to profit by buying or selling at the misprized level. In other words, there is a gap in the price in which some open orders still need to be filled. The price will return to fill the orders. ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups. BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
Short
by MBM_Crypto
8
BTC Outlook - The Trend is weakening!Trend weakening, low volume during retests of major resistance ( 29k ), plus CME and Fair value gap below current price - all pointing towards the downside. Brace yourself for a possible return to 20k soon! It's important to consider the unfilled CME- and Fair value gaps located below the current price. Typically, these gaps are eventually filled, so expecting a price retracement to those levels is reasonable. However, it's worth noting that filling such gaps could take a while, although they are usually filled relatively quickly. ------------------------------------------- BTC - Dont turn bullish until this zone is broken! ------------------------------------------- With regards to ALTs: The Altcoin market cap is struggling to break the $620B mark. If breached, expect a surge in Altcoin activity. But remember, Altcoin performance is closely tied to BTC , so a dip in BTC price will hurt Altcoins too. Keep an eye on the $620B mark if you're looking to trade some ALTs ------------------------------------------- What's a Fair Value Gap?: A fair value gap is the difference between a financial instrument's theoretical value and market value, such as a derivative or security. It can indicate a misprizing opportunity for traders to profit by buying or selling at the misprized level. In other words, there is a gap in the price in which some open orders still need to be filled. The price will return to fill the orders. ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups. BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
Short
by MBM_Crypto
2
BTC - Dont turn bullish until this zone is broken! Here's a quick look at the Daily BTC chart. As we can see, the zone between 29k to 30k is a critically important price range that requires close attention. It has played a pivotal role in differentiating between the bull and bear market. As soon as the price broke below this zone, the market was deemed to have entered a bear market, while staying above it signaled a continuation of the bullish trend . Currently, the price is once again testing this critical zone, and its behavior here will be a determining factor for the market's future trajectory. A hard rejection from this level could result in a sharp decline in price, while a breakthrough could propel the price upwards to the range of 40k to 47k . Thus, investors and traders alike should closely monitor the price action around this zone to make informed decisions regarding their investments. Trend weakening, low volume during retests of major resistance (29k), plus CME and Fair value gap below current price - all pointing towards the downside. Brace yourself for a possible return to 20k soon! ------------------------------------------- With regards to ALTs: The Altcoin market cap is struggling to break the $620B mark. If breached, expect a surge in Altcoin activity. But remember, Altcoin performance is closely tied to BTC , so a dip in BTC price will hurt Altcoins too. Keep an eye on the $620B mark if you're looking to trade some ALTs ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups. BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
Short
by MBM_Crypto
4
BTC - The trend is weakening! Here's a quick look at the 8 hr. BTC chart. The bearish divergence on the RSI suggests that the trend is losing momentum, and a downward move could be expected. Additionally, the low volume indicates that a substantial movement could occur at any moment. With the bearish divergence on the RSI and the low volume, it's highly likely that a move to the downside could happen soon. It's important to consider the unfilled CME- and Fair value gaps located below the current price. Typically, these gaps are eventually filled, so expecting a price retracement to those levels is reasonable. However, it's worth noting that filling such gaps could take a while, although they are usually filled relatively quickly. ------------------------------------------- What's a Fair Value Gap?: A fair value gap is the difference between a financial instrument's theoretical value and market value, such as a derivative or security. It can indicate a misprizing opportunity for traders to profit by buying or selling at the misprized level. In other words, there is a gap in the price in which some open orders still need to be filled. The price will return to fill the orders. ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups. BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
Short
by MBM_Crypto
10
BTC - The price will eventually come back down!Here's a quick look at the BTC 4 hr . chart. As we can see, the price has formed a descending triangle, and a break, either way, will happen soon! It is important to note that there exist significant unfilled CME- and Fair value gaps situated below the current price. As a general trend, these gaps are known to be filled eventually. Thus, it would be reasonable to anticipate a price retracement to those levels. It is worth mentioning, however, that such gaps may take an extended period to be filled, though in most cases, they are filled relatively promptly. Also, the current volume is very low, indicating that a more significant move is coming! ------------------------------------------- Key Dates to Watch in March: 30 Mar: GDP Report ------------------------------------------- What's a Fair Value Gap?: A fair value gap is the difference between a financial instrument's theoretical value and market value, such as a derivative or security. It can indicate a misprizing opportunity for traders to profit by buying or selling at the misprized level. In other words, there is a gap in the price in which some open orders still need to be filled. The price will return to fill the orders. ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups. BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
by MBM_Crypto
8
BTC - The price will eventually come back down!Here's a quick look at the 8 hr BTC chart. As we can see, the price has been oscillating within the bigger broadening wedge. This kind of price action is tough to predict. The CPI data came in low at 6.0%, which pumped the whole market. With a series of lower lows and higher highs, the bulls and bears are getting rekt simultaneously! If the price stays within the broadening wedge , the next logical move would be to the downside! But you never know! Also, watch the history of CME gaps - They've always been filled! The overall sentiment isn't bullish, so these gaps are expected to get filled in the short term! ------------------------------------------- Key Dates to Watch in March: 21/22 Mar: FOMC Meeting 30 Mar: GDP Report ------------------------------------------- What's a Fair Value Gap?: A fair value gap is the difference between a financial instrument's theoretical value and market value, such as a derivative or security. It can indicate a misprizing opportunity for traders to profit by buying or selling at the misprized level. In other words, there is a gap in the price in which some open orders still need to be filled. The price will return to fill the orders. ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups. BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
Short
by MBM_Crypto
30
Is it the end of the bear-market rally on the S&P 500?Volatility was high during the Asian and US session yesterday, which saw a reversal of fortunes for the Japanese yen and the US dollar track Wall Street lower by the close on concerns the US is already in a recession. The yen originally weakened and sent USD/JPY over 250 pips higher as the BOJ did absolutely nothing, catching pre-emptive hawkish bets off guard. Yes with US retail sales sinking to a 12-month low at -1.1% m/m, then industrial production and manufacturing output falling –0.7% m/m and -1.3% respectively, it seems ‘happy new year’ is a distant memory and bears are coming out of hibernation. The Dow Jones led Wall Street lower (-1.8%) followed by the S&P 500 (-1.56%) and the Nasdaq (-1.3%). It also dragged the dollar lower as traders bet on a lower terminal Fed rate, seeing USD/JPY hand back most of its earlier gains. AUD, CAD and oil were also dragged lower as recession concerns dominated sentiment. S&P 500 daily chart: The S&P has stalled at an interesting juncture, and one that may prove to be a major swing high, during its worst session in 21. A large bearish ingulfing candle formed following an intraday false break of 4,000, trend resistance and the 200-day MA. Also note how the S&P has struggled previously at the 50-day MA back in August and twice in December. Volume was also above average to show conviction in the down-day, and the OBV (on balance volume) has been trending lower since November, despite the S&P’s rally since October, to show that bearish volume is dominating overall. Have we just seen the end of a bear-market rally? Possibly, perhaps not. But it does appear that a prominent swing high has formed • Our bias remains bearish below 4016 with an initial target at 3800 • Bears could either enter a break of yesterday’s low, or seek to fade into rallies with yesterday’s bearish candle (this potentially increases the reward to risk ratio) • If confident this is the end of a bear-market rally, bears could keep an open downside target and manage with a wider stop as it moves lower to managed the inevitable whipsaws along the way
SP:SPXShort
by CityIndex