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Bearrally

Cryptos and bitcoin are crashing 69K was the high back in 2021 that was awesome. But the crash is coming. The big crash is coming and major crash.. the Feds are still going aggressive to fight off the inflation… soooooooo what’s next? When to buy: I suggest buy at 12K or around 10K possible we will see lower than that because 12-9500 area has stronger support and floors.. also please stop saying 17600 or 18K is a the bottom please don’t. The sellers are going under pressure from the economic reset so on the 13th of October should expect the inflation to drop if not will go higher and everything will crash a lot further.. US economy is still slowing down. When is the Feds pivot?: Feds pivot is a choice when the Feds will save the market or not we should expect it around the 2nd of November also December 12th. We are still in a bear market the huge crash everything broke the June lows and especially S&P500,NAS100 and US30 broke the June lows as well, we aren’t going to recovery if the Feds pivot happens. Please becareful and don’t trust the short buys because it will drop even lower. Like , comment I appreciate the support and reputation as you all know I’m only 21 years old I had 2 years experience of these. Enjoy your day and happy crashing.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by JoyBoyVegae
3
ETH's Response to Support Levels Should Offer More CluesPrimary Chart: ETH's Key Support Levels Approaching Based on Fibonacci and a Measured Move ETH's Recent Rally since June 2022 ETH made its YTD low on June 18, 2022, a day or two after many equity indices. Since then it has rallied, albeit not in a straight line, significantly. The rally has carried ETH approximately 1149 points higher so far, which is approximately a 130% gain. This rally has now reversed at least in the short term with the minor swing high made on August 14, 2022 at $2029.90. Whether the recent rally constitutes a trend reversal or a mere bear rally remains uncertain. As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke yesterday at an economic summit at Jackson Hole, Wyoming (US), he communicated the need for continuing restrictive monetary policy and tightened financial conditions until persistent inflation eases back to the 2% target. So macroeconomic headwinds suggest cryptocurrencies, equities and other risk assets may struggle at best or have more downside at worst. While not making a call for a bottom in ETH or any other risk asset , this article notes that markets can bottom even when macroeconomic news remains quite bleak. Having identified the fundamental arguments relating to whether ETH may have reversed its downtrend, this article will not spend additional time forecasting the primary or longer-term trend in ETH. Instead, key price action and support levels will be discussed that may help evaluate the nature of ETH's trend in coming weeks. If the rally from the June 2022 low constitutes a major trend reversal (back to an uptrend), then the support levels identified will likely hold when tested. Sometimes a test can include a break that fails and quickly recovers back above the support, which is also called a whipsaw or false break. ETH's Critical Support Levels for the Current Decline The primary chart above shows key support levels using Fibonacci proportions. The Fibonacci retracements cover the range from the June 18, 2022, low to the August 14, 2022, high. These support levels lie nearby given ETH's significant decline on August 26, 2022. Interestingly, some of these key levels also align with important price supports at significant lows or consolidations. Two examples are described in the following list: The .618 retracement (yellow line) of the two-month rally coincides with the price support (dark blue line) at swing highs in late June and early July 2022. The .50 retracement (green line) aligns with lower end of a mid-July 2022 consolidation as well as the low on August 26, 2022 at 1488.00. The concept of a measured move may also be relevant to the current multi-day decline. For a measured move, a corrective wave A is projected from the start of a projected wave C. Where A equals C is where the measured move zone begins. The measured move zone ends where wave C of a correction equals wave A times a Fibonacci proportion of 1.272. These two support levels lie at $1217.53 (lighter blue line) and $1080.02 (teal line), which are shown beneath the .618 retracement line on the Primary Chart above. Note that this article does not presume a measured move is underway—that would require predicting that the current decline will constitute a corrective pullback within an uptrend. As mentioned, no position is taken on whether the current decline resumes the downtrend or corrects a newly started uptrend. In short, a measured-move level provides an area of support to watch to determine the nature of the recent decline. If price reverses at the measured move zone, then this increases the odds that the rally has further to run. If the measured-move zone fails, then this increases the odds of retest and break of the 879-880 lows in June. This is why the $1080 to $1217 area is important to watch over the coming days to weeks. ETH's Shift in Shorter-Term Momentum ETH's shorter term momentum has shifted to negative in the past two weeks. The shorter-term EMAs provide a good starting point for evaluating shorter-term momentum. Shorter-term in this context means several days to several weeks. Price has broken back below, and held below, the 8-day EMA for about 10 days. Over the past week, ETH's price tried at least twice to recover the 8-day EMA but failed back below by the close at the end of day. The 21-day EMA has now been broken too. Both EMAs slope downward and the 8 EMA has crossed below the 21 EMA, confirming the ongoing bearish momentum in the short-term. Supplementary Chart A: ETH's 8-Day and 21-Day EMAs Show Short-Term Bearish Momentum ETH's RSI on the daily chart confirms near-term shift in momentum. Note how RSI peaked towards the end of the recent bear rally around 71.42 on the daily time frame. This level is fairly overbought for a daily chart especially considering that the YTD price action has been largely bearish and choppy. Supplementary Chart B: ETH's RSI Shows Short-Term Bearish Momentum Note the sharp downtrend in RSI on the chart above as evidence by RSI remaining well below its EMA on the daily chart and RSI remaining within a well-defined, steep downtrend. Inferences from ETH's Technicals In conclusion, ETH's technicals do not provide an answer about whether the intermediate-term or long-term trends have reversed from this year's bear market. They do, however, help see that the near-term path of least resistance is somewhat lower. And they give us price levels and zones to watch to help determine what ETH's next move may be. And such levels may also help traders analyze whether the multi-week uptrend from June 2022 lows will continue further or whether it will be deemed a powerful bear rally within a remarkable downtrend. Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction. CME:ETH1! BINANCE:ETHUSDT BITSTAMP:ETHUSD COINBASE:ETHUSD BINANCE:ETHUSDT
KRAKEN:ETHUSD
by SquishTrade
17
Structural Progress Remains Elusive for BTCUSDPrimary Chart: Showing Major Retracement Levels for BTCUSD's Entire Bear-Market Decline with Accompanying Down Trendline Since November 2021 to early January 2022, equities and cryptocurrencies have experienced a bear market. The selloff has been more pronounced in crypto assets than in equities generally, although certain segments of equity markets have paralleled (in percentage terms) the massive declines seen in crypto. BTCUSD Has Not Reached Key Fibonacci Retracements Like Equity Indices Have The Primary Chart at the top of this article shows the major retracement levels for BTC's entire bear-market decline. Note how BTC's 43% rally from June 2022 lows has still not meaningfully approached its .382 retracement level of its entire bear-market decline. By inference, if BTC hasn't been able to approach its lowest .382 retracement level, it has come nowhere near its .50 or .618 retracement levels, labeled on the Primary Chart above. Supplementary Chart A below shows an example of one of the world's leading equity indices, the US S&P 500, having reached and even surpassed critical retracement levels in the powerful rally off June 2022 lows. Whether this rally is a bear rally or an actual trend reversal is hotly debated in the financial media, but the outcome remains uncertain despite confident forecasts in both directions. More importantly, note how the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) has exceeded both its .382 retracement and its .50 retracement of its bear-market decline. In fact, it is approaching its .618 retracement of its YTD decline. When price closes in on a key level of multi-month importance, it often will find a way to touch that level given the magnetic effect it has. Supplementary Chart A: Two Key Fibonacci Retracement Levels for the YTD Decline in S&P 500 ( OANDA:SPX500USD ) Key Levels in Proximity to BTCUSD's Current Price As shown in Supplementary Chart B, BTC has remained in a parallel channel off the June 17, 2022 lows. Some might argue this technically works as a bear flag pattern—confirmation would be a downward breakout that holds below the upward trendline forming the base of the channel. In any event, this channel has contained price since mid-June 2022 lows. The return line (top line of the channel) lies near $25,700 to $26,282. This should prove to be strong resistance in the coming week. The lower line ranges from about $22,200 to $23,100, which should prove to be support—and given that the downtrend line remains intact, this should also be watched for a break. The .382 retracement of the second leg of this bear market lies at $29,297. If BTC can break above its downward trendline —indeed, this would be a feat should it occur—the .382 should then also be watched to determine how price responds. This should serve as decent resistance at least on any initial attempt to push above it. but traders and market watchers should remain open-minded and flexible to see whether BTC could break above this level as equity indices have done. With FOMC minutes being published Wednesday Supplementary Chart B: BTCUSD's Down Trendline and Fibonacci Retracements for the Second Leg of This Bear-Market Decline Starting at March 28, 2022, Swing Highs Ichimoku Cloud Remains Bearish with a Hint of a Change The Ichimoku Cloud can sometimes offer an additional perspective. The cloud remains bearish—red and downward sloping. (The mechanics of the cloud's color changes are beyond the scope of this article.) The could twists and turns green, however, in late August 2022 / early September 2022. Such cloud formations can suggest the potential for a shift in trend—but no guarantee. Currently, price is meeting powerful resistance along the upper edge of the cloud's SSB (Senkou Span B) line. See Supplementary Chart C (below). This line works as resistance from about $24,700 to $25,000. This SSB line represents the mid-point of a 52-day period on the daily chart. Several candles have touched, briefly pierced, and then failed back below this key level. This shows that the level is holding a strong resistance for now. Supplementary Chart C: BTCUSD's Ichimoku Cloud Chart on the Daily Time Frame The weekly Ichimoku Chart remains more bearish in appearance. The cloud remains thick and red with no trace of a bullish twist in the future that could imply a possibility for clear skies ahead for BTC. The weekly chart also shows price significantly below the cloud, and even well below the Kijun line (blue), while having risen above the Tenkan line (gold). See Supplementary Chart D (below). Supplementary Chart D: BTCUSD's Ichimoku Cloud Chart on the Weekly Time Frame The author has no open position at the time of publication (August 17, 2022) on BTCUSD or BTC-related investment products such as BTC futures, BTC ETFs (BITO) or BTC derivatives. This article is intended to present a relatively unbiased technical analysis of BTC's DISCLAIMER: This post is published solely for educational / entertainment purposes and does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation and cannot account for any person's particular financial circumstances. The author would not want other investors / traders to lose money by relying *solely* on this idea rather than doing their own due diligence. Before entering any trade, please evaluate the risks of (i) the instrument / security being traded, (ii) the type of trade and its timeframe, (iii) risks inherent in that type of trade and its time frame, (iv) the inherent risks of shorting securities (presenting unlimited risk without hard stops in place), (v) the inherent risks of trading options, leveraged ETFs, and cryptocurrencies, and (vi) all financial risks arising each person's personal financial circumstances. CME:BTC1! BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT FTX:BITOUSD SP:SPX OANDA:SPX500USD VANTAGE:SP500
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SquishTrade
4
Do not listen blindly to the Top Callers on SPX (SPY)Plenty of experts on Twitter were calling for a top in SPX today as it rallied up to the daily 200ma. On SPY there was a market dump that can be seen on the 5-min chart today (after 2pm). However there are two points of caution for immediately jumping into swing puts: 1 - price has yet to touch the light blue downtrend line, which would be around 4335-4340 2 - RSI is still elevated without divergence (green oval), which often occurs at major turning points The yellow zigzag shows a possible pattern that would also create bearish divergence with RSI. Upon hitting the daily 200, first round of sellers come in and market pulls back to 10 or 20ma. Buyers return and move SPX up the blue line, and that's when the downturn really begins. Note that I am sharing the possibilities that I see, and I am not married to any one idea. This rally could even go higher than that blue line. Traders usually lose when they become too insistent and expectant on one idea. We likely are at or near the end of this rally, yet you can see by all the rangebound chunks of days that you may not want to go all in puts/short. While those calling for a serious downturn may be correct, it does not have to happen tomorrow, or this week even, and holding time matters in option trades. Repeat - TIME matters! Have you been correct on a directional trade but lost money or made little gain because your option expiry was not far enough away? Been there done that. Now when I execute a trade I think about how long it may take for the price move to happen and then choose an appropriate expiry. Please please please do not predict or expect price action to follow any pattern because others are showing a historic similarity! There is way too much of this "history repeating" commentary on Twitter.
SP:SPX
by OptionsRising
1
A Perfect StormMy August prediction may be toast now. 420 on spy puts us right at 0.5 reversal from Jan 2022 High of 479.98 CPI came in lower than expected and the reaction was a gap in RTH at 411.35. Volume has been really low during this move higher as shown by volume bubbles (size and transparency) RSI is approaching overbought on daily. Still, I haven’t been looking at both Bear and Bull Cases lately so I’m going to start again. Best case we see .618 retrace before the next CPI. I’m watching to see a close above the 420 before thinking about a move to 434. Otherwise we could fill the CPI gap sooner than later and consolidation at 410. VIX is compressing and continue to compress as low as 16 at this rate. 10Y dropped with yesterdays CPI print and DXY is breaking down. Seems like a perfect storm. September being the next set of events that could bring this low volume bear rally to an end.
AMEX:SPY
by SPYvsGME
2
SPX Approaches Major Resistance at 4090-4177 after FOMCSPX Approaches Major Resistance at 4090 - 4177 Fast approaching a major resistance zone where plentiful supply resides, SPX has rallied hard since the presser after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, July 27, 2022. SPX rallied about 2.62% that day, with the Nasdaq 100 rallying nearly 4.5%. Conflicting interpretations of unscripted remarks at the FOMC presser have led many to interpret the Fed Chair's comments as more dovish than expected, which has been widely attributed as the reason for the bullish turn in major indices. Key Resistance Levels Just Overhead The blue rectangle on the published chart above shows where price had consolidated for about eight days from May 27 to June 8 of this year. This level also aligns with major swing highs and lows including the swing lows on February 24, March 8, March 14, and May 2, and the swing high on May 17. So one may reasonable expect that price could be rejected at such levels, even if temporarily, and pullback from such levels to consolidate the recent gains. Important Fibonacci targets also are approaching. These include the following Fibonacci-derived resistance levels: 4227: the .50 retracement of the entire decline from the all-time high on January 4, 2022, to the low on June 17, 2022 4221: the 1.618 projection of the first wave off the lows starting June 17 4137: the .50 retracement of the March 29 to June 17 decline 4114: the 1.272 projection of the first wave off the June 17 low as projected from the low on July 14 Key Fibonacci Resistance Levels on SPX daily chart as of July 28, 2022 Momentum Nears the March 29, 2022 Level Yesterday, July 28, 2022, RSI reached 62.61 on the daily chart. It will likely reach the 64-66 range on the same time frame on July 29, 2022. This is very near March 29, 2022 peaks where RSI topped at 65.27 after turning all the key moving averages on the daily time frame upward again. The March 2022 bear rally even turned the weekly 21 EMA to upward sloping as well for a 2-3 weeks. RSI hit 65.27 on March 29, 2022 after a powerful 11.56% rally off the March 8, 2022 low. The chart below highlights RSI resistance based on the March 29, 2022 peaks. RSI on SPX daily chart as of July 28, 2022 Near-Term Trends Have Shifted Upward While SPX is approaching major resistance, short-term and intermediate term trends have turned upward. On the daily chart, the 8, 21 and 34 EMAs are now sloping upwards with price well above them all, the 8 EMA has crossed above the 21 EMA, and the 21 EMA appears likely to cross the 34 EMA within a day. The chart below shows these three key moving averages. 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 34 EMA on SPX daily chart as of July 28, 2022 On the weekly chart, the weekly trend remains neutral to bearish still, with price just below the 21-week and 34-week EMAs, which have been flattening out given the recent rally and are no longer previously downward sloping. Bear Rallies and Major Trend Reversals May Appear Similar Powerful bear rallies and major trend reversals off of long-term lows can appear quite similar. The current rally from June 16, 2022, to July 29, 2022, has gained over 12%, and likely may reach a 13% gain tomorrow. This has exceeded almost everyone's expectations and once again caused many experts to pronounce that the bottom has been made in equity markets this year and that lasting bull markets lie ahead. While a bull market may come, it remains unclear whether a powerful bear rally definitely signals the start of another extended bull, especially with inflation remaining persistently high, negative GDP prints, and Federal Reserve rate hikes continuing even if at a slower pace. Even if it were to retrace over half the decline since January 2022's all-time high, such a rally would remain typical of bear markets and insufficient to draw any serious conclusions. The 2-year bear market of 2000-2002 saw bear rallies in the Nasdaq 100 that reached 32-60% on four separate occasions. For the time being, it remains prudent to follow price, which is showing that near-term trends have shifted. But at this extended level, going long does not make sense give the key resistance levels just overhead. Note: This post is not intended to present a trade idea but rather to present technical analysis of the current price action in this security. DISCLAIMER: This post is published solely for educational / entertainment purposes and does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation and cannot account for any person's particular financial circumstances. The author would not want other investors / traders to lose money by relying *solely* on this idea rather than doing their own due diligence. Before entering any trade, please evaluate the risks of (i) the instrument / security being traded, (ii) the type of trade and its timeframe, (iii) risks inherent in that type of trade and its time frame, (iv) the inherent risks of shorting securities (presenting unlimited risk without hard stops in place), (v) the inherent risks of trading options, leveraged ETFs, and cryptocurrencies, and (vi) all financial risks arising each person's personal financial circumstances. SP:SPX OANDA:SPX500USD VANTAGE:SP500 AMEX:SPY CME_MINI:ES1!
SP:SPX
by SquishTrade
9
US100: read the descriptionAs previously posted ideas. - Inflation is still high (check) - Rates keep increasing. (check) - bear market rally (check) Keep shorts, reduce leverage, and short every spike. The first target of 12.000 ish is soon to print. Next would be a bear market rally, then we are vomiting again. If you look at what happened at NASDAQ nordic, we got a flash crash because one market participant accidentally sold all positions at once. It reversed back quickly, but it gave an indication of what is about to come. This means that market participants are selling positions quietly, but accidentally revealing themselves. I take this as a clear indication of market participants positioning themselves to reduce their holdings, while retail buys up. This will end badly. Short every spike and do not buy the dip.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Fx-AlphaStrats
1
Trading Edge 2020 Portfolio -Trade #10- SPY - Another Leg Down?Ticker: SPY Position: ~ May 15th expiry ~ $275 Strike Put (looking to book an order for $10-$11.00, since the futures are looking to be up) ~ Delta = 0.50 ~ Run 1x contract Exit/ Profit targets: ~ Close above the swing high $287.50 = exit the trade ~ Initial target = $261.23 (38.2% fib) ~ Secondary target = $253.04 (50% fib) Rationale: ~ Bearish MACD cross on the daily ~ Price appears to be stalling within the moving average bands (particularly the 55 and 89) ~ Potential RSI rejection at the 60 mark (typically acts as a line between bullish and bearish) ~ Overall market condition is still weak, this appears to be the relief rally that i considered in my prior analysis (although i am open to a melt up scenario) P.S. I will also be watching WES for a potential inverse H+S pattern -TradingEdge
AMEX:SPYShort
by Profit_Link
1
US 30 in Bear Market: Bears don't Bounce!Lotta ppl thinking this is gonna repeat Jan 2019. That was a Bull Corrrection. This is a Bear. Bears grind for a Long Time. Median expected ~7-9 months. CV19 will take ~3-4 months to burn thru US population. April will be the Cruelest Month IMO, tens or even hundreds of thousands of cases. A Fool's Rally to the 0.50 Fibo around 24K will likely provoke a second bottom. Geopolitics will take center stage after the viral epidemic abates this summer. ERs will be lousy in Q3 after the viral lockdown, there can be no massive rally. Tankoff should be mostly over by election day. Trump re-election will spark rally, not because Trump is beloved, but because it will resolve uncertainty. This isn't advice; trade at your own risk; GLTA!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
10
Trading Edge 2020 Portfolio -Trade #8- SPY - Time to ShortTicker: SPY Position: ~ April 17th expiry ~ $255 Strike Puts ~ Cost 12.32/ Contract ~ Delta = 0.41 ~ Break even at expiry = $242.68 ~ Run 1x contract ~ Total cost = $1,232 (there may be variance in price) Profit/ Exit: ~ Initial target is a gap fill around $230, at this point i will roll the position to remove some of the risk and retain exposure to a further fall, which i believe is likely. ~ Due to the insane implied volatility at press time, a stop is likely to be triggered prematurely, therefore, i will not be running a stop on this particular position, and will instead look at rolling to a later date, should the expected move not occur by expiration. Rationale: ~ For a multitude of reason i expect further downside to persist, largely driven from a macro perspective, i.e. Covid19, supply chain disruptions, lockdowns affecting production etc. ~ Technically, i favor the setup due to the move to the 21 ema, which during a bear market, often serves as a good entry point for shorts. ~ We are currently at the 38.2% fib retracement, although i think a move to the 50% is also on the cards, if anything i would look at entering an additional short position at that point, so this position may be considered "tranche 1" of that overall position. -TradingEdge
AMEX:SPYShort
by Profit_Link
2
SPX - Relief Rally - Stimulus to the Rescue + Bonds/ Gold UpdateQuick SPX update: ~ Expecting a brief relief rally (haven't we all) ~ Target is in between the 38.2% and the 50% Fib retracement (2,650 - 2,800) ~ Looking for a potential move to the 21 daily ema, at which point i will be looking to go bearish again ~ The move will likely be on the back of the "positive" stimulus news, but i am very skeptical of how the markets will respond to this, which ultimately amounts to an admission that Covid19 is crippling the US economy and that one should expect higher inflation moving forward Additional Analysis: Gold ---> I believe that there are many key factors moving forward (i will elaborate in a further post), these include the demand for physical beginning to outstrip supply (premiums are reflecting this), the issue of the futures contracts being used to drive prices down as a policy tool (to prevent a further erosion of confidence) and the fundamental drive of higher inflation expectations. Overall i am very bullish on Gold going forward, but i also am expecting to see some near-term weakness. US Bonds ---> The end goal is zero, make no mistake, US10Y and a host of other maturities will hit the "zero bound" within 12 months or even sooner. This will present a host of challenges, namely it will significantly reduce the attractiveness of US Treasuries as a safe haven, this will most likely drive capital into gold, leaving the only buyers as the Federal Reserve, thus the US will enter a death spiral, furthering their dependence on low/ negative rates. I believe the best way to play this macro outlook, is to leave US bonds alone, yes there will be capital gains to make, but the yields are already so low, better to let that train leave the station without you, the USD will appreciate, at least in the near-term, so a play on DXY is on the cards. But the better play in my opinion is to use the yields as an indicator as to when to shift focus to gold, as when US bonds hit the zero bound, the carry cost for gold is now a non-issue and the yellow metal is now a much more attractive safe haven. In fact, this may very well be a contributing factor to the growing strength of gold, as other investors will also be keenly watching the yields on US Treasuries. - TradingEdge
SP:SPXLong
by Profit_Link
3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Is Going DownAs an intro I'd like to remind everyone that we are in a bear market. I see many people claiming we are in a bull market, but it's not true. We are trading below the 200 Daily moving average and the 50 DMA is below the 200 DMA, so technically we are officially still in a bear market. Also, we have not made any higher high. I'd like to give you 3 reasons why this could have been a bear market rally and we are just continuing going down the stairs on the way of making a lower low: 1. If you look at the last week of July in 2018 we had the same bear market rally which ended by a rejection of the 200 Daily Moving Average around the price of 8.6k and we kept going down until we bottomed at 3.2k. (It took us ~230 days to get there) 2. The CryptoVN_Trend gave us a second sell signal on the daily chart which always leads to the price going down 3. If you look at Heikin Ashi candles the last daily candle was a doji candle with long wicks on each side - this is a trend reversal candle, so we can expect at the minimum a few days of red candles. We do however see a ton of bullish signs as well, but right now I believe we will see a minimum of 8.2k, likely at least 7.5k ... but don't be surprised if 1-2 months from now we are in the 6k region again.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Crypto_Burger
2
SPY Ending wave v of (3) Bearish Reaction: Relief Rally (4) TBDMerry Christmas Traders! We find SPY near the termination of a minor fifth subwave v of Intermediate wave (3), which in turn is part of a larger primary wave One. Primary Wave One should terminate near SPY ETF price 219 on/about 31 Dec 18, after a 28-day decline from 3 Dec wave origin. Chart describes constituent components of Primary Wave One, including a i-ii-iii-iv-v minor negative impulse wave terminating in an A-B-C flat correction, and the subsequent steep decline to the "Christmas Crash" on 24 Dec, consisting of (so far) a wave 1-2-3- incomplete impulse. It seems likely that minor wave v of Intermediate (3) has terminated at Monday 24 Dec prices, given Fib extension of wave iii in price and time after four down days; however, a real possibility of a v wave Extension Path exists, shown as Alternate Path in chart. Given weak price action, panic-level selling could drive price to 226.5 before a 4th wave bounce. Intermediate Wave (5) target is 219.5, possible extension shown could drive prices as low as 211.5 or less. NB: Minor wave iii dropped ETF 10 pips, minor v has taken 7 more. Third waves are never the shortest waves. Selling waves typically last 3-5 days. Should get a turn on either 26 or 27 Dec for a likely 0.382 Fib retracement. A higher lift is possible but unlikely, given EW alternating wave theory, we already had a strong lift in 2nd reaction wave with a 0.50 Fibo retrace (noted on chart), ergo, expect this 4th wave will be relatively weak. A more robust Retracement Bear Rally of the entire December impulse would be expected after the completion of the (5) Intermediate Wave in December's bearish impulse, target shown in blue box as a rough possible estimate of ~ 254 - 265. Following that countertrend Secondary Rally, expect a powerful and severe Secondary Bearish Reaction with another 5-wave Impulse down to price levels reaching back to 2016, or even lower, should Panic and Despair prevail. Longer-term, I expect only more Bearishness. In 2008, NAS lost 80%, Dow lost 45% and SPX went off over half. This one will be worse. After 86 years since the Crash ended in August 1932, prices reached astronomical new highs in September 2018. There is a distinct possibility that this represents the culmination of a Grand Elliott Wave Supercycle, postulating Grand Wave V completed on 3 Sep 2018; if so, the Great Bear may finally be coming out of hibernation. Of course, this is speculative theory and remains unproved, nonetheless, it is a fascinating concept: en.wikipedia.org As always, these posts are purely informative ideas, and do not constitute investment advice. GLTA!
AMEX:SPYShort
by DaddySawbucks
19