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Beartrap

BTC's Downward Breakout May Trap BearsChart 1 : BTCUSD's Downward Breakout From Bear-Flag Channel (Chart 1 also includes a hypothetical price path showing one probable way that price could retest the channel and the downward trendline that has held as resistance since November 2021. BTC's Downward Breakout from Parallel Channel/b] On August 19, 2022, BTC fell over -10%, breaking out below its upward sloping bear-flag channel. This parallel channel has contained price since the June 18, 2022, low at $17,592. The breakout below the channel was also decisive with a taller bearish candle that closed very near the low for the day. As price has continued to rally, volume has dwindled. This represents lack of conviction in the rally when volume does not support each subsequent push higher. Potential Retest of the Parallel Channel In weighing the likelihood of a potential retest of the parallel channel that has defined this bear rally, consider the following points: 1. No one can say with certainty whether the bear rally is finished or whether the downtrend is complete. However, the bear rally may not be complete, and bears opening shorts on this breakout may be trapped in the coming days / weeks. Bull and bear traps have been a common occurrence in this bear market. Note that this is a short-term view only—the longer-term price action and trend structure remain quite bearish, and this author does not advocate a long investment strategy at this time in BTC . 2. Even though the macroeconomic environment remains poor with sticky inflation and tightening financial policy likely to continue in the intermediate term or long term, corrective rallies can push higher and longer than most expect. Markets can remain irrational longer than traders can remain solvent. Market research studies have shown that some of the strongest, sharpest rallies in equity markets have occurred during prolonged bear markets. Look no further than the recent rally: the macroeconomic picture has remained relatively unchanged, but equity indices and cryptocurrencies have rallied significantly in the past two months. 3. While the bear rally may constitute an upward correction within the downtrend, consider that the recent decline on August 19, 2022, may simply constitute a correction within a correction. Stated differently, today's decline may represent a retracement within an ongoing bear rally that has already pushed over 40% higher from June 2022 lows. And the ongoing bear rally is itself a larger-degree retracement within a ten-month downtrend. 4. Breakouts above / below trendlines or channels commonly lead to short-term reversals that (at a minimum) retest the breakout point. In this case, a retest of the channel would lead price to the $23,000 to $24,000 range. Like every common price pattern, whipsaws involving retests of breakout points do not always occur. 5. Currently, price has declined to just above the .618 retracement of its entire rally off the June 2022 low near $17,592. This .618 retracement level frequently holds as initial support or resistance when price corrects a recent price move. The zone between the .618 retracement and the .786 retracement should be watched carefully over the coming week. If it holds firmly as support, this could indicate that the decline is part of a correction within an ongoing larger bear rally off June 2022 lows. (Note that the .618 retracement can be important both during corrective rallies within uptrends and corrective bounces within downtrends.) Supplementary Chart: BTC's Recent Decline May Pause or Reverse at the Zone between the .618 and .786 Retracement Levels Potential Test of the Ten-Month Down Trendline Corrective price patterns frequently work havoc on bears and bulls who want to see consistent trendlike price action in one direction or the other. Note that corrective patterns can be upward, as in the current bear rally within BTC's downtrend, or they can be downward, as the In the short term, price has chopped back and forth within the corrective parallel channel shown in Chart 1. Further, corrections can unfold in complex combinations as Elliott Wave theory teaches. For BTC, the current bear rally is an upward correction. This upward correction And a two-month bear rally could be the first segment of a complex correction—alternatively, it could be the end of the corrective retracement. The primary chart, Chart 1, shows in blue the major down trendline that has defined this downtrend in BTCUSD. This down trendline has contained price since early November 2021 may still be tagged in the coming days or weeks. Important levels of support or resistance tend to act as a magnet for price when price approaches them. The retest of the parallel channel could in theory coincide with a test of the down trendline in early September 2022. If this happened, the test would occur at a price of approximately $23,500 to $24,000. Finally, while many have concluded the final lows were made and others see this as a bear rally, this bear rally still constitutes an upward correction within a downtrend until the weight of the evidence proves otherwise . So this article posits that price could continue the upward correction (retracement) higher or sideways over the next few weeks, and that today's decline might be a downward correction within the corrective bear rally. And any rally may trap bulls with another sharp move lower. After all, markets in equities and crypto have continued to confound bears and bulls alike leaving market makers with bulging pockets full of profits. NOTE: This article is intended to present a relatively objective view of BTC's current price action and key levels using technical analysis. The author has no open position at the time of publication (August 19-20, 2022) on BTCUSD or BTC-related investment products such as BTC futures , BTC ETFs (BITO) or BTC derivatives. DISCLAIMER: This post is published solely for educational / entertainment purposes and does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation and cannot account for any person's particular financial circumstances. The author would not want other investors / traders to lose money by relying *solely* on this idea rather than doing their own due diligence. Before entering any trade, please evaluate the risks of (i) the instrument / security being traded, (ii) the type of trade and its timeframe, (iii) risks inherent in that type of trade and its time frame, (iv) the inherent risks of shorting securities (presenting unlimited risk without hard stops in place), (v) the inherent risks of trading options, leveraged ETFs, and cryptocurrencies, and (vi) all financial risks arising each person's personal financial circumstances. CME:BTC1! BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT FTX:BITOUSD SP:SPX OANDA:SPX500USD VANTAGE:SP500
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SquishTrade
12
BITCOIN AT IMPORTANT AREA HI TRADERS For bitcoin holders and traders which has waited for bullish run these days are difficult and maybe forgot the days that we could see green market BUT before all of the major bullish run we had the side way moves like now. PINK AREA IS VERY IMPORTANT and could be the area which bulls come to the market again and start to fill their bags .because of the war and US market no one can see start of a bullish run but i think the end of this month they all think different. We can not see any sign for start a bullish run right now but we are very close to the major SUPPORT LINES. for first step we need a good volume and keep the price above 39k for couple days. be careful in these days ,in my experience the BEAR TRAP normally occur in the satiation like this. BEST WISHES AND GOOD LUCK
by miladniki
BTC: BEAR TRAP??Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. Welcome to this BTC analysis. BTC did a nasty sell-off and dumped hard. I'm expecting a bounce from $37k but it didn't happen that's why my previous chart is invalidated. Now, BTC breaks below the bear flag in the daily time frame. So if this pattern going to be played out perfectly then we have seen a 50% more drop from here according to this pattern. But as you know the market is not going according to chart patterns these days. Recently we have seen a clear breakout of the falling wedge and what happens after that you all know. So I'm expecting here that Market makers trap everyone in this range and a sudden pump comes anytime soon. Invalidation level:- If BTC daily closes below $32,800 then this analysis becomes invalidated. What do you think about this? Do you also think this is a bear trap or do you think that we are heading towards $20k? Share your views in the comment section. If you like this idea then do support it with like and follow. Thank You!
Long
by CoreCrypto1
14
SPX: Complete trend analysis (H, D and W charts).Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the SPX is doing today! First, in the 1h chart, it lost the support level we mentioned yesterday (4,200), and it dropped a little bit more after that. However, we see some reaction right now, and if the index closes above the 4,200, the market might understand it as a false breakout from a previous support, making this a possible bear trap. This would be a good bullish sign, but we don’t see any clear bullish reversal structure yet. We are still doing lower highs/lows, and the 21 ema is pointing down, and to me, we must see more confirmation in order to call it a buy again. If the index is about to reverse, now is the best time for it: In the daily chart, we see that the index is trying to stabilize at a very important support level around the 4,167, which supported the price at least 5 times in the past. What’s more, this support level could be the neckline of a Head & Shoulders chart pattern in the weekly chart: This tells us that this the last chance the SPX will have to react, otherwise, it’ll engage a bear trend for good. It is important to notice that it is dropping in the last 4 weeks, but the volume was below the average, and this gives me the impression that the market is dropping because people are just afraid and aren’t buying, instead of actually selling (or shorting) at this level. The moment couldn’t be more complex and crucial. Regardless of what the SPX will do next, it seems we’ll have our answer soon, in the next few days. I’ll keep you guys updated on this every day, so, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
3
Was Bitcoin’s Dip Below $40,000 The Ultimate Bear Trap?Bitcoin's (BTC) price had a sudden break below the $40,000 significant psychological level, but the sell-off was short-lived, and the decline was quickly reversed. Investors are now asking whether the dip below the round number was the ultimate bear trap. Bitcoin Bear Trap? In technical analysis, the bear trap occurs when the market sells-off traps traders in believing that the uptrend is over and a possible reversal is underway. In a bear trap scenario, the price often breaks below a support level or a key technical point. The bears got the break below the $40,000 critical level, but so far, they definitely got burned by betting on the Bitcoin price crash. The technical landscape can give us more clues about whether BTC can hold above $40,000. Stochastic Oversold First, the stochastic oscillator bounced from oversold reading, and it expanded higher along with the price. Secondly, we have a hidden bullish divergence between the stochastic oscillator and the price. The hidden bullish divergence is a bullish reversal signal that occurs when the price makes a higher low while the indicator makes a lower low. Should BTC's price continue to rally out of its low, the following essential resistance level lies closer to March's high of $48,240, followed by the $50,000, the next significant milestone.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by cryptohopper
SPX: This could trigger a REVERSAL!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the SPX is doing today! The index is reacting nicely today, after what seems to be a false breakout from the previous support level, and a bear trap. This is expected, as we still are in our “danger zone”, and now the sellers are being squeezed. The 4,456 is still the most important resistance for us, and as long as we remain below this price level, the trend won’t reverse for good. But I agree that today’s reaction was good, and just in time, since the index is dancing around its support level in the daily chart: The index did a false breakout from the 4,400 (March’s Top and the 50% retracement), another sign of a bear trap, and it is heading to the next resistance. The 4,456 is the most important resistance seen in the 1h chart, but in the chart we see the 21 ema at 4,453 and the 38.2% retracement at 4,458. Clearly, the area around 4,450s is not going to be easy, and this is the area the index needs to break in order to fly again. For now, we see the beginning of a good reaction, but it is too soon to tell if it’ll reverse or not. Either way, I’ll keep you guys updated on this, so remember to follow me to not miss any of my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
3
EicherMotors Bear trapEducational Idea: Most of the Novice conventional traders use support and resistance levels. If the support breaks, they tend to short-sell the scrip & try to profit out of it. And, if the resistance breaks, they go long. But the majority of the time, they become a victim. Let me get this straight. Let's take an example, in this case, Eicher Motors. When Eicher Motors is close to the support pivot, let's say, everyone(Traders and Investors) will take a long position. Since everyone is buying the stock, there will be a lack of sellers & the price will shoot up suddenly in search of the sellers, and the investors will have no choice but to buy for a higher price since there is a huge demand. But the thing is, the investors are much smarter than that. When everyone is long at the pivot (or Support Point), they will just short the stock, using all the buy orders provided by the traders and drive the price down, breaking the pivot (Support). This will create a panic for the traders as the support is broken. In a panic, they will square off their position for a loss, and to cover their loss (creating sell orders), they will just short the stock. (Again Creating new sell orders, at a lower price) Now, the investors got what they wanted, i.e, fresh sell orders at a lower cost. They will just unload their short positions to the traders who are taking fresh short positions and will start accumulating the quantities they want for their portfolio at a much better & lower cost. And then, the stock price goes up, giving investors their returns and traders, well, their losses. Please Note, This is just an Educational Idea. Trading involves risking capital. Always protect your capital by keeping a strict stop-loss. Happy Trading & Investing.
NSE:EICHERMOTLong
by corestrategytrader
Perfect Bitcoin Ascending triangleBTC has formed this beautiful ascending triangle and as we know is bullish pattern so i am trading it to the levels of 47.5k whith is going to be 6% profit. At 47.5k i am pulling out my profits because of the strong resistance, one of them is point of control but i am going to post about that when we get there. I am also very confident in this trade because of the high volume spicke, that is always a good sign. What do you think about my opinion? If you like my ideas please follow me and like the post because i am posting every day my trading strategys, i am new to Treadingview but i have 6 years expirience in trading. BTC TO THE MOON!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Mladen94
TSLA: Complete Multiple Time Frame Analysis (H, D and W charts).Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how TSLA is doing today! It has been a while, so we have a lot to catch up on. First, in the 1h chart, TSLA is just doing a sideways correction, dancing around the 21 ema. Both Fibonacci’s Retracements, the 38.2 and 50% are doing a good job holding the price, however, even if it lost its retracements and fill the last gap at $ 847 I wouldn’t be surprised. It is important for TSLA to do a bullish structure in the 1h chart, and this would happen the moment it breaks the $ 943.70 (purple line). This will trigger a pivot point that could lead the price above the $ 995, which is the next resistance to work with. In the daily chart, TSLA is in a bottom area, and it is trying to react, however, I would wait for a breakout of the $ 943 just for confirmation's sake. In the last few days, it has been dropping with low volume, indicating that there’s no real sell pressure. In addition, we see better why the $ 995 is so important, as it was a top/support level in the past, and since it is so close to the $ 1k, which is a very emblematic price for TSLA, we can assume it is an important resistance for the short/mid-term. In the weekly chart, TSLA is trying to do a bullish candlestick pattern just above its support level at $ 900.40 (Jan 21 top), making last week drop a false breakout and a bear trap. The $ 943.70 is this week’s high too, and this is the most key point to watch on TSLA for now. If you want to keep in touch with my daily analysis, remember to follow me and I’ll keep you updated.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
Khans SPY-Update for KW04 - 25.01For now, Futures are red - a bit understandable after yesterday's run. The day prior to an FOMC-Meeting could be a bit of green, according to historical data. But none of the macroeconomic/political issues has vanished, therefore the sentiment of the market is still bearish . We could see a flush down at Market Open, possible finding support, and creating a bear trap - then reverse from there and end the day slightly green ahead of FOMC tomorrow. Watch how VIX will react and trade accordingly if you want to trade at all. Volatility will be still very high
AMEX:SPY
by KhanPhelan
2