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GLD-Double top formation , AlphaOverBeta Trade AlertHello traders, GLD was spotted on the AlphaOverBeta radar as forming ( Asymmetric) double top bearish formation, this usually means that the next move is to the downside, The formation is incomplete and will be completed once the price pattern goes below the 145.5$ level , watch out for this formation since its a high probability trigger, once formed, which may trigger a bearish move in GLD for the short term, Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:GLDShort
by Alon_AOB
SPY-How important was yesterday ? , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, Yesterday (Feb 4, 2020) was a technically significant day for the S&P500 - a breakout day after some time in which the market showed signs of building a downtrend (which is a part of a natural market price action). You may see in the chart that since the definition of a downtrend is lower lows and lower highs we have been confirming that definition until yesterday, then a breakout candle broke through and invalidated the downtrend, at least for the short term. The significance of yesterday is in the fact that price action managed to break the downtrend to the upside, after touching the 320 level as indicated by Fibonacci and our forecast models (see our previous forecast), We usually provide clear forecast for the rest of the week, only in this case our models are sitting quietly on this decision point, we may see the return of the downtrend but in case the market forms an uptrend in the coming days, we will declare the correction as over and increase our risk, as our modeled strategies suggest. Trade smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
1
SPY Are we done correcting ? , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, Looking at the markets in this and last week, Many traders ask themselves two basic questions this week: Is the market in correction mode? Is the market on a bearish cycle? According to our models the market is in correction mode, so answer your question #1 is: Yes We are definitely not in a bearish cycle, the market had a correction that is not anywhere near bearish talk, so the answer to question #2 is NO! According to our forecasting models, we still have some more downside risk all the way to 315 , in case the market reaches 315, equity valuations will be very attractive to many buyers and we forecast that a new up wave will start again. Trade Safely Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alon_AOB
Is it time to SHORT BA ? AlphaOverBeta Trade AlertsHello traders, BA just touched a very significant support level of 310$, the company has been in trouble ever since launching the 737 MAX , the crashes and the way the company handles the issues, the company grounded it's 737 MAX fleet and is losing millions daily because of the failing design of the aircraft. With all its problems , current and in the future, the price crashed (pan intended..) to 310$ as the company is about to announce its earnings on Jan 31. If the earnings are going to be lower than expectations, we estimate a meltdown in price all the way to the 200$ levels, Our handling for BA is a Sell Stop @ 300$ with Stop Loss at 320$ Trade safely, Alon (AlphaOverBeta)
NYSE:BAShort
by Alon_AOB
1
Is the SPY about to correct ? AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, The market continues to fly high without looking back , this is supported by a number of important factors such as the positive messages from the white house and china regarding phase I agreement and the future of the trade war, strong economic numbers , and some technical factors as well. as we can see in the chart, the RSI has reached a peak above 70, this means that we are again slightly overbought and the market is about to face some range trading soon, this is a healthy move by the market as it prepares for a charge at our next milestone which is 345 This is the perfect market to cherry-pick investment assets as this market hides the real gems that may fly as the market stays in consolidation mode. Trade Safely, Alon (AlphaOverBeta)
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alon_AOB
Strategies to Buy This Value Automobile StockFCAU has seen considerable improvement under its new management, and with the recent cleaning up of debt, they announced last month that they will be giving out dividends. FCAU has not paid a dividend since 2016, so this is incredible news for what I believe to be a very valuable stock to own in the next few years. Despite positive earnings, FCAU has seen a tremendous drop. Historically, this is followed by a drop in sentiment and an eventual rebound. Though a "cup and handle" rebound attempt was seen, it was immediately followed by a descending triangle pattern, breaking out into new lows. The average RSI-26 on the 30min candles seems to be descending linearly to the 30 line, where it historically picks up again. This is suspected to take place between March 14th to March 16th 2019. My suggestion is to pyramid in your buys once the latest low is tested and stop around a 5.5% low from the initial low after the earnings announcement. This gives you the following target buy points: $14.34 $14.22 $14.13 $14.07 $14.01 $13.93 $13.80 There is, however, a possibility that the best time to buy will be sooner than later. This, I believe, is largely dependent upon the current overall market trends. The S&P and Nasdaq Composite Indexes have been shaky lately. If the overall market rises, we will see this stock recover much more quickly, since it's Beta is close to a 2. In which case, jump on anytime and ride that bull.
FLong
by ValueMyAsk
GVT: dont get caught with your pants down...im getting real good feels towards GVT at the moment. can feel the beta release creeping in and know this ship is about to truly take off. as with all mainnet/full release we will see buying up until the date but i have a feeling we wont see as much selling as we think with this one. gvt; amazing community who have full belief in the every proving dev team, anyone whos hodl'd strong until now wont be selling and anyone who 'buys the rumor, sells the news' will regret it by Q1 2019. like the title says dont get caught with your pants down pissing into the wind at the top of fomo mountain.
G
by cooper_5e
2
Study: Crypto Mentality Shift - Potential Bull Market Trigger?Hello and welcome to the revision of my working theory regarding market patterns in cryptocurrencies. This analysis follows my previous write-up regarding why intra-day traders in cryptomarkets should focus on alt-usd pairs as opposed to BTCUSD, found below: In this analysis, I focus on the 4-hour timeframe as opposed to the daily timeframe found in the original. This is due to my impression of a change in market mentality, rendered by BTCUSD's most recent upward thrust from 6,750 to 7,350. During this movement, many alt-usd pairs followed BTCUSD, although some lagged in performance. However, in the following days - as BTCUSD consolidated at the 7,300 level following a rejection of the 1.618 Fibonacci level from the previous week's range, many alt-usd pairs retraced the majority of their upward movements that mimicked BTCUSD. I have been closely watching beta and correlation levels in this scenario, as I believe this is an important signal and should not be discounted by traders in the space. What we are seeing is a weakening of a long correlation pattern between BTCUSD and alt-usd pairs, with a weakening beta on alts. It was always my belief that this correlation would break, as per the previous study. However, in the current state of the market, we see the correlation break favoring BTCUSD, meaning that BTCUSD is maintaining its new-found value at the expense of alts. Given this developing relationship, a strengthening BTCUSD will attract more alt-traders, while alts will continue to lose strength and therefore value. In addition to this, as the trading volume in BTCUSD has been declining over the majority of the YTD, it is very possible that we will see a large volume breakout on a daily level, which again - will be funded by declining alt coins. Overall, this would give BTCUSD a good push for further uptrend progression. I believe that BTCUSD has a high possibility of reaching levels between 7,700-7,850 in the near term, but this will be a painful journey for alts, as traders of the previous mindset (high correlations, high betas) will attempt to push alts. I strongly doubt most alts will exceed their local highs, which were developed on BTCUSD's push to 7,350. This is simply because the alt-usd retraces seen during BTCUSD's consolidation are simply too large, which deter the confidence in the alt market. Those who did not take profit on the initial rise will be anxious to get out, keeping the selling pressure on alts strong. See chart below for my BTCUSD targets: My theory is further reinforced through an analysis of 4-hour betas and correlations on an individual basis between large cap alt-usd pairs on Bitfinex. This collection of low 4-hour betas (SMA-smoothed on a 3-period basis) amongst the entire grouping has not been seen since February/March. If this trend continues, we will begin to see negative betas (negative correlations). In conclusion, my theory is that a market mentality shift is taking place . Traders are willing to remain bullish in one asset class (BTCUSD or alts-usd) while the other asset class is declining. In our case, this currently favors BTCUSD. While this shift may be painful in the short term for alt-usd pairs, this is a very bullish sign for the market. This means that people are able to maintain their confidence in cryptocurrency as a whole. Previously I noted high correlation and high beta patterns, that implied that sideline money was coming into alts-usd and BTCUSD simultaneously, as well as exiting both markets simultaneously. This change implies that the money will begin to flow in a cycle, from one asset class to another, allowing the market strength to develop and gradually begin a bullish cycle. tl;dr: Times are changing - we are potentially entering Timespan D. Thank you :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by checkm8
6
Study: Why you should stop trading BTCUSDHello all and welcome to my analysis of trading patterns in crypto markets! Before we begin, there are several key assumptions we must establish: The reference data is based on trading prices and volumes on Bitfinex. This is because I believe that Bitfinex is the leading exchange in the cryptocurrency market due to its popularity, despite higher recent BTCUSD volumes on Binance. Only USD-based pairs are examined The index is a dollar-volume weighted aggregate of margin-tradeable alt coins on Bitfinex, excluding BTCUSD The correlation and beta calculations are on a 14-period basis, which are benchmarked against BTCUSD Given limitations with the data, the index is examined only on a range from October. An second index, consisting of only ETHUSD and LTCUSD will be provided to show the longer timespan In this snapshot, I have split the frame into three timeframes (A, B, C), which highlight a changing market dynamic over time. Timespan A captures the peak of bitcoin's 2017 hype. The lowest correlation point is -0.65 which was accompanied by a beta of -1.65, while the highest correlation was 0.80 with an index beta of 3.44. During this span, a relatively volatile correlation (refer to the standard deviation of correlation oscillator) between the altcoin index and BTCUSD can be examined, with similar volatility patterns in the beta. The interesting component here is that, during the price rise, alts would follow BTCUSD when BTCUSD was rising, but experience inflows of money from BTCUSD when the latter was falling. As such, the market mentality was bullish - the money would flow from BTCUSD to alts and then back around. By examining the index beta over this period, you can see how alts outperformed BTCUSD when times were good and when times were bad. Timespan B begins to paint a different picture, where the volatility in correlation and beta measurements is far less drastic. Over this span, the lowest correlation was 0.28, showing that directional movement between the index of altcoins and BTCUSD remained positive, even when weak. It is important to note the longer duration of high correlations during this period, which were accompanied by similar movements in beta. Timespan C is where we currently are and, in my opinion, this is a very interesting setting in the market. As the chart shows, the lowest correlation was 0.50, while beta almost consistently remained above 1. The standard deviation of correlation had been only trending downwards from Timespan A , which is reflected in the relatively consistent correlation measurements over the period. The conclusion to be made is that altcoins, in aggregate, have become strongly correlated to BTCUSD, while a beta above 1 indicates higher performance in alts than BTCUSD. TL;DR: chart BTCUSD and trade altcoins based on BTCUSD momentum. As the statistics show, the market mentality has shifted away from moving money from one crypto to another, but rather buying/selling alts and BTCUSD simultaneously. Furthermore, we can examine a longer timeframe in the chart below: In this chart, the correlation and beta, as well as the standard deviation of correlation, are based on a dollar weighted aggregate of ETHUSD and LTCUSD, which were the longest standing altcoins on Bitfinex. The narrative described above remains the same, where the correlations have become far stronger in recent times compared to their historical trends, while the beta has become stronger over time, gaining more ground above a measure of 1 during the high correlation periods. The final point is an examination of dollar volume in BTCUSD compared against altcoin dollar volume: As can be seen from the chart, the dollar volume in BTCUSD has been losing ground to the dollar volume in USD-based alt pairs (on Bitfinex)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by checkm8
13
NFLX head&shouldersHigh-beta names feels a bit heavy at this point after a big run since mid of May. In Netflix, after it borke up bear chanel, it had a nice and clear move following the 8-day EMA from $350 to $475. It failed to hold above previous high $458. Right Shoulder was re-test of this resistance that is still in tact. Entry Short on break of neckline around $433-$434 could give us high-probability trade. For trader with different risk parametres you can use earlier entries with tighter stops. This time I don't have well-defined target, reasonable level is $417.20 base support. I will measure and update.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by andrew.berg
1