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Opening (IRA): UNG March 21st 18/June 20th 35 LPD*... for a 15.04 debit. Comments: Fading this natural gas move here with a long put diagonal, buying the back month -90 delta put and selling the front month 25. The 35 long put is shown at the 21 strike due to the 35 being off the chart. Metrics: Max Profit: 1.96 Buying Power Effect: 15.04 ROC at Max: 13.03% Break Even: 19.96 relative to 19.68 spot Will generally look to take profit at 110% of what I put it on for, roll out the short put on approaching worthless. * -- Long put diagonal.
AMEX:UNGShort
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TQQQ April 17th 60 Covered Call... for a 57.91 debit. Comments: Adding at strikes better than what I currently have on ... . Here, going lower net delta by selling the -84 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 2 x expected move 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 57.91/share Max Profit: 2.09 ROC at Max: 3.61% 50% Max: 1.05 ROC at 50% Max: 1.82% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TNA March 28th 35 Covered Call... for a 34.04 debit. Comments: Adding at strikes better than what I currently have on, selling the -84 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Going lower net delta here as a personal choice, since I've already made goal for February, so don't see the need to take on my normal amount of risk. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 34.04/share Max Profit: .96 ROC at Max: 2.82% 50% Max: .48 ROC at 50% Max: 1.41% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add to the position at intervals if I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out my short call on approaching worthless if my take profit hasn't hit.
AMEX:TNALong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TNA April 17th 31 Covered Call... for a 29.98 debit. Comments: Starting a run at April (56 DTE) at strikes better than what I currently have on. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 29.98/share Max Profit: 1.02 ROC at Max: 3.40% 50% Max: .51 ROC at 50% Max: 1.70% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals assuming I can get in at strike prices better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
AMEX:TNALong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TNA April 17th 29 Covered Call... for a 28.28 debit. Comments: Adding at strikes better than what I currently have on. Selling the -84 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 28.28/share Max Profit: .72 ROC at Max: 2.55% 50% Max: .36 ROC at 50% Max: 1.28% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, roll out short call in the event my take profit is not hit.
AMEX:TNALong
by NaughtyPines
EURGBP is ready to take off ... the week of 07 Apr 2025Weekly chart – strongly bullish, broke above previous structure Daily chart – strongly bullish, broke above previous structure H4 chart – bullish, now pulling back towards previous resistance, now turned support. The formation of a higher low on the daily adds to my confidence that we are headed higher. This is actually a breakout-retest setup. When/If price reaches this zone, I will be monitoring PA on H4 and H1 timeframes with a view to find evidence of a bullish continuation. We could easily have a much deeper retracement too. In the current uncertain world economic situation, it is vital to establish that control of the market has returned to the bulls, before taking a trade. Stop may be larger than what I would like, but it will need to be below the nearest swing low. Target can be generous too – at 0.8613 or anywhere higher right up to 0.8750. This is not a trade recommendation; it’s merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk, only trade with money you can afford to lose and carefully manage your capital and risk. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!! It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
Long
by Trading_Vista
BTC short setup for the coming weeksHi Everyone, In today's market update, I’m analyzing a potential short setup that I plan to take in the coming weeks. While we are currently experiencing an upward rally, the broader macroeconomic environment remains uncertain. This leads me to believe that the current move is merely a relief rally, with further downside likely ahead. I will begin building my short position once we enter the red zone between 90,654.73 - 94,366.47. For invalidation, I am watching the 95,500 level—if the price breaks and holds above this level, I will exit the trade, as it would invalidate my setup. Stay tuned for updates on my trading plan!
CRYPTOCOM:BTCUSDShort
by YungZkittlez
APPLE: There's Only One Relevant Level Safe chart as there's no breakdown PA at the top: - No SFP at the highs; - No MSB possible as there's no relevant HL structure because price never significantly pushed out of any structure. Basically: 2021-2025 PA is still one big structure; ---------------------------- $124.17 is the only clean level for an SFP: it's the most outstanding out of all the PA, but still not that outstanding. Therefore: the faster price gets to it, the stronger the level will be. Increased horizontality and the degree to which it stands out will diminish (it gets lost in time as time moves on...).
NASDAQ:AAPL
by EyyJasper
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 4, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Euro has experienced a notable increase, surpassing resistance levels at 1.086 and 1.095 in the current trading session, thereby completing the Inner Currency Rally of 1.114. However, an intermediate price reversal has been observed, suggesting that the Eurodollar will continue to decline towards the support level at 1.090, with a potential extension down to 1.075. An upward momentum could emerge from either of these support levels.
by TradeSelecter
GBPJPY next week bias Good day traders, hope we all made money following the resent market volatility but regardless we back again on the job. GBPJPY on the daily TF we had a market structure shift lower falling in line with the weekly structure, going into the new week we’d like to see the market open higher and give up ICT’s power of 3 which basically means we wanna see price go against our bias(sells) Monday and Tuesday and maybe till morning Wednesday. On the TF shown here 4hour TF we can also see that price shifted lower now using the OTE that ICT explains in his 2022 model, we will only consider taking our sells once price starts rejecting the FIB levels above.
Short
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
US500 Panic sell, Major support, psychological level LONG Hello fellow traders, Yesterday was one of the darkest days for some of you who invested in market and had high hopes and once the price gone over certain levels the machines started selling selling selling and who knows what Monday will bring? Maybe on Sunday some salvation will come from USA! hahaha! Anyway, trading and chart wise- this is a major support zone for sp500 5000!! and look how the price has hit the trend line and look how the RSI is oversold and look...this is a Daily chart! I like going from daily to 4h and 1h intervals, Daily oversold is a good signal for a reversal at least for NOW, correction faze to 5400 perhaps and will see, for now my bet is on the Long position with the target 5,400 This is not a trading advise, just an idea and wait!- s/l advisable here I would say below 4650 being win to loss ratio slightly above 1:1
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by lb-counts
Tariffs Didn’t Cause the Correction — It Was Coming Anyway🚩 Intro: Markets Correct — They Don’t Need Permission Every time the market drops hard, the headlines rush in to explain it. This time, it was President Trump’s dramatic tariff announcement on April 2nd. The media called it a shock. I didn’t. I’ve been calling for S&P 500 to drop to 5,200, and NASDAQ-100 to 17,500, since early January. Not because I predicted tariffs. But because the charts told the story. The market didn’t fall because of politics — it fell because it had to. ________________________________________ 🔥 The Spark: Trump’s “Liberation Day” Tariffs On April 2, 2025, Trump rolled out an aggressive trade agenda: • 10% blanket tariff on all imports • Up to 54% tariffs on Chinese goods • 25% tariffs on imported cars and parts • With limited exemptions for USMCA-aligned countries Markets reacted instantly: • S&P 500 dropped 4.8% — worst day since 2020 • NASDAQ-100 plunged over 6% • Tech mega caps lost 5–14% in a day Sounds like cause and effect, right? Wrong. ________________________________________ 🧠 The Real Cause: A Market That Was Ready to Fall Let’s talk technicals: • S&P 500 had printed a textbook double top at the 6100–6150 zone • NASDAQ-100 had formed a rising wedge, with volume divergence and momentum fading • RSI divergence was in place since February • MACD had crossed bearish and also deverging • Breadth was weakening while indices were still pushing highs • Sentiment was euphoric, volatility crushed — a classic setup You didn’t need to guess the news. The structure was screaming reversal. SP500 CHART: NASDAQ CHART: ________________________________________ 🧩 Why Tariffs Made a Convenient Narrative Markets love clean stories. And Trump’s tariffs offered everything: • Emotional trigger • Economic fear factor • Political drama • Global implications But smart traders know better: markets correct based on positioning, not politics. As soon as the wedge broke on NAS100 and SPX broke the double top's neck line the path was clear — risk off. ________________________________________ 📉 I Was Calling This Since Q1 The targets were public: SPX = 5,200. NAS100 = 17,500. And the logic was simple: • Overextension in AI-led tech • Complacent VIX environment • Crowded long positioning • Bearish divergences and fading momentum Double Top and Rising Wedge on SPX and Nas100 We didn’t need a reason to drop. The market had been levitating without support. All we needed was a trigger — and we got one. ________________________________________ 🧭 Lesson: Trade the Structure, Not the Story Here’s what I hope you take away: ✅ Setups come first. News comes later. ✅ If it wasn’t tariffs, it would’ve been CPI, earnings, Fed minutes, or a bird on a wire ✅ Don’t chase headlines. Anticipate setups. The best trades aren’t reactive. They’re built on structure, sentiment, and timing — not waiting for CNBC to tell them what’s happening. ________________________________________ 🔚 Conclusion: It Was Never About Tariffs Tariffs were the match. But the market was already soaked in gasoline. This correction was technical, predictable, and clean. 📝 Post Scriptum — The Setup Shapes the Narrative Let me be clear: I’m not a Trump fan. Hoho — not by far. But I’ll swear this on any chart: If the setup had been the opposite — double bottom, falling wedge, positive divergences, and improving momentum — these exact same tariffs would’ve been interpreted as “bold leadership,” “pro-growth protectionism,” or “markets pricing in a stronger America.” That’s how it works. Price action leads. Narrative follows. When structure is bullish, traders celebrate even bad news. When structure is bearish, even good news becomes a reason to sell. So no — it wasn’t about Trump. It never is. It’s about where the market wants to go. The rest is storytelling. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:US30Education
by Mihai_Iacob
43
Real Reason Most Strategies Fail–“Overfitting” Explained Simply!Hello Traders! Have you ever seen a strategy work amazingly on historical charts, but fail badly in live markets? You’re not alone. One of the biggest reasons this happens is due to something called Overfitting . Today, let’s understand this concept in the simplest way — so you can avoid falling into this trap and build smarter strategies. What is Overfitting in Trading? Overfitting means your strategy is too perfect for past data: It works great on old charts, but only because it was made to match that exact data. It fails in real-time because the market changes: The strategy doesn’t adapt well to new price behavior — it’s not flexible. Example: A strategy with 10 indicators giving perfect backtest results may be too specific and only fits that period — not future ones. Signs Your Strategy Might Be Overfitted Too many rules or filters: If your strategy has too many conditions just to improve past results, that’s a red flag. Works only on one stock or timeframe: A good strategy should work on different stocks and market conditions. Great backtest, bad live performance: If your real trades don’t match the backtest, it might be too customized to the past. How to Avoid Overfitting in Trading Keep it simple: Use fewer indicators and rules. Focus on clean price action and proven setups. Test on different stocks/timeframes: See if your setup works across Nifty, Bank Nifty, stocks, or different timeframes. Use forward testing: Try the strategy on live charts (paper trade) before putting real money into it. Rahul’s Tip A perfect backtest doesn’t mean a perfect future. Build your strategy to be reliable — not just impressive on history. Conclusion Overfitting is like memorizing old exam answers and failing the new paper. Don’t build strategies that only look good on past data. Make them strong, simple, and adaptable to real market conditions. Have you faced this issue before? Let’s discuss in the comments and help each other improve!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TraderRahulPal