DEFENSE EU vs USEU defense massively outperforming the US up 50% from the lows.
Lockheed Martin is forced to console American allies, convincing them not to abandon the US Defense industry as Trump completely destroys it with his pro-Russia behavior.
I don't see any way back to NATO normal. Trump has weaponized the US defense industry against our (former allies?) allies and that is unacceptable. The US defense industry mostly sells $107 billion annually to NATO, EU nations.
This win-win EU-US relationship between our allies has made it possible for the US to develope and sustain military technology we would otherwise not have been able to afford alone.
So America first? Not really. More like America last!
At any rate, should a downturn occur and need to be long. #EUAD is a good place to be.
Beyond Technical Analysis
BNB Bull Flag Activated — Watching for $794 CRYPTOCAP:BNB is showing strong bullish momentum after rebounding off the marked support zone. This level, which previously acted as resistance, is now holding firmly as support following the breakout.
As long as BNB sustains above this zone, the bullish structure remains intact — and the path toward a new All-Time High (ATH) around $794 is wide open. The 50 EMA continues to act as dynamic support, further strengthening the setup.
DYOR, NFA
BTCUSDTLooks like BTCUSDT wants to make us smile again 🙂 A new opportunity for a Sell signal has emerged, and I’ll be taking advantage of it. However, don’t forget that in 35 minutes**, the *U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)* data will be released — and that could cause some market volatility. I’m opening the trade with that in mind, so make sure you adjust your risk accordingly.
🔍 Criteria:
✔️ Timeframe: 15M
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:1.60
✔️ Trade Direction: Sell
✔️ Entry Price: 94333.33
✔️ Take Profit: 93908.54
✔️ Stop Loss: 94598.39
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It's a trade I’m taking based on my own system, shared purely for educational purposes.
📌 If you're also interested in systematic and data-driven trading strategies:
💡 Don’t forget to follow the page and subscribe to stay updated on future analyses."
$SPX / $SP500 – China Deal or Global Meltdown? The Risk/Reward 📉 The S&P 500 ( SP:SPX / VANTAGE:SP500 / $ES_F) is at a geopolitical crossroads.
After the Global Pause, the index rebounded, but only to retest resistance near the 200-day EMA. Now it faces a binary outcome:
Scenario A: ✅ Deal with China
Estimated probability: 20%
Potential upside: +10%
Expected value: +2%
Scenario B: ❌ No Deal with China
Estimated probability: 80%
Potential downside: -50%
Expected value: -40%
📉 Expected move: -38% net Markets are not priced for this. Volatility ( TVC:VIX ) is quietly coiling under the surface (chart 2), ready to explode if the no-deal scenario materializes.
BTC Poised for Bullish continution / Smart money long setup🟢 BTCUSD | Long Setup Based on Smart Money Concepts (4H Timeframe)
Bitcoin is showing a potential bullish continuation after tapping into a key demand zone (Order Block) aligned with Smart Money Concepts.
🔍 Breakdown:
BOS (Break of Structure) confirms a shift in market structure, indicating bullish intent.
Price formed a new Higher High (HH) followed by a retracement into a 4H Bullish Order Block, highlighted in orange.
Liquidity below internal range lows has been swept, grabbing sell-side liquidity before reversing.
Strong bullish reaction from the OB zone suggests smart money accumulation.
📈 Anticipated Scenario:
Price is expected to form a new Higher Low (HL) and continue its bullish trend by breaking above recent highs — targeting levels near $97.7K, $96.1K (minor retracement), and ultimately $99.5K.
🎯 Entry Idea:
Long from the OB zone with confirmations (e.g., bullish engulfing or LTF BOS).
SL below the OB.
TP at key liquidity zones & imbalance fills.
🧠 Smart Money Bias: Bullish
Timeframe: 4H
Confirmation: Break of internal structure + bullish reaction from demand
ALT COIN SEASON IS JUST WEEKS AWAY, HOPE YOU HAVE YOUR BAGS FULLHey Traders,
We’ve been watching this Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart closely — and it’s heating up again!
For those unfamiliar, BTC Dominance tracks the percentage of total crypto market cap that belongs to Bitcoin. When BTC.D rises, it typically means altcoins are underperforming compared to BTC — either due to their market caps falling, or BTC’s increasing. When it drops, altcoins are gaining ground.
While this chart won’t tell you whether markets go up or down, it’s critical for spotting where to diversify and when. It’s a must-have tool in your crypto trading utility belt.
⸻
Why This Chart Matters Now:
We’re nearing the top resistance trendline of a long-term triangle formation that dates all the way back to 2017. This line has rejected BTC.D multiple times in the past — and we’re back to test it again, hovering between 63% and 66% dominance.
Each of these rejections previously led to a drop in BTC Dominance — which triggered powerful altcoin seasons.
⸻
Key Bearish Signals:
• Bearish Divergence on the MACD
• MAJOR Bearish Divergence on the RSI
(Just like before previous alt seasons!)
• TOTAL2 (the white line representing all altcoins) looks poised to spike if history repeats.
Altseason Clue: When BTC.D forms bearish divergences on these indicators, it’s often followed by a surge in altcoin market cap — a key early signal we may be close to another one.
⸻
BUT… This Isn’t 2021 Anymore:
Let’s be real — the market has changed. Solana-based launchpads like Pump.fun and Jupiter DEX have revolutionized how easily tokens are created and traded. That’s new capital flow and speculative behavior we didn’t see last cycle.
Plus, the geopolitical landscape is shifting fast. With President Donald J. Trump calling for crypto regulation frameworks within 180 days, we may soon see an influx of institutional money — but it could come with strings attached.
⸻
Final Thoughts:
A breakdown in BTC.D could mean a major rotation into alts — but don’t bet the farm.
Markets could still dump. We may even skip altseason altogether this cycle.
However, this chart gives you a crucial edge — so use it wisely. Know your tools. Zoom out. Plan ahead.
As always — stay sharp, stay safe, and stay profitable out there.
— Savvy
MSTR Bull Trap!In my BKC charting, I’ve identified a pattern I call "tight! tight! tight!" typically paired with a bull trap. Prices surge as traders FOMO in, then collapse. It’s a straightforward trade: enter on the breakdown, set a stop above the prior high. Offers solid risk/reward.
Click like, follow, subscribe! Let me help you navigate these crazy markets. Lets get to 5,000 followers,
NFLX: Bearish Reversal Setup - Macro Pressure & Volume Gap Risk🕒 15 min & Daily Charts | 📅 May 5, 2025
Ticker: NASDAQ:NFLX
Netflix (NFLX) is flashing warning signs after a steep rally from the April lows. Price action has now rejected the $1,150–$1,155 zone, confirming a local top with divergence and bearish engulfing on the daily. On the 15-minute chart, we see clear Fibonacci levels being respected with a break below 0.382 followed by a rejection of the 0.236 zone.
🧠 Confluence of Bearish Factors:
Macro Headwind: Trump's proposed 100% tariff on foreign film production hits Netflix's cost model hard. This geopolitical risk could reduce margins (source: The Guardian, May 2025).
Volume Profile Analysis: Price is above a thin volume node with little support until the $1,000–$1,030 zone, increasing vulnerability to sharp drops.
Fibonacci Targets: Measured move from $1,151.68 → $1,107.08 gives downside Fibonacci extensions to:
🔻 1.236 – $1,094.76
🔻 1.382 – $1,087.13
🔻 1.786 – $1,066.04
🔻 2.0 – $1,054.85
Daily Rejection Candle: Today's -1.74% bearish candle completes a rising wedge breakdown.
🎯 30-Day Probabilistic Outlook:
🟢 Bull Case: $1,290 (20% probability, if tariffs fail or are watered down)
🟡 Base Case: $1,066.58 (50% probability – Fib target + volume support)
🔴 Bear Case: $979.59 or lower (30% probability – volume gap fill and macro fear)
💡 Playbook:
Intraday scalpers can short retests of $1,143–$1,146 (golden pocket).
Swing traders can target $1,066 and trail with 3-bar structure.
Add-on confirmation with VIX > 18 and Fed staying hawkish on May 7th.
📌 Not financial advice. For institutional and strategic educational use under the Wavervanir DSS framework.
#NFLX #ShortSetup #Fibonacci #MacroTrading #VolumeProfile #BearishReversal #WavervanirDSS #TradingView #AITrading
UPS Longvery very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very nice trade
GOLD - The Timeless Standard Bitcoin Can Only Dream Of ✨💰
1/ Bitcoin’s Aspirations vs. Gold’s Reality
Bitcoin proclaims to be “digital gold” , promising decentralization and stability. But the truth is clear: while Bitcoin is shaken by extreme wealth concentration and constant media hype, gold has built a centuries-long reputation for trust and enduring value. 🔥🏆
2/ The Digital Gold Revolution
Gold isn’t a relic—it's evolved! 🚀 Today, through blockchain tokenization, you can own digital gold that’s 100% backed by physical gold safely stored in vaults. 🏦🔐 This fusion of ancient value and modern tech shows that gold means business, while Bitcoin just tries to copy its legacy.
3/ Concentration vs. Distribution
Check this out: over 90% of Bitcoin is hoarded by a few whales 🐋, leaving everyday holders with crumbs. In contrast, gold’s market has naturally spread out over centuries of global trade. 🌍📈 This organic distribution reinforces stability and genuine market confidence.
4/ Liquidity, Custody & Security
🔹 Gold Is Easy to Custody
Gold is already stored securely in banks and reputable vaults all over the world, and its ownership transfers digitally. You can withdraw or trade anytime without relying on untrustworthy crypto exchanges or wallets vulnerable to hacks . 🔓💼 Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s security is often subject to risks and platform issues.
5/ Real-World Utility vs. Speculative Hype
Gold isn’t just an asset—it’s a workhorse! ⚙️ From use in electronics to medicine and aerospace, gold’s real-world applications generate organic demand. No aggressive, 24/7 hype machine is needed here. In contrast, Bitcoin runs on media-fueled life support, with bots and influencers relentlessly (and tediously) pushing its narrative . 😴📢
6/ Stability You Can Count On
Gold has weathered economic storms with calm resilience 🌪️➡️☀️, proving itself as the ultimate safe haven. Bitcoin, however, is notorious for its wild 80%+ price crashes, making it a volatile bet for long-term wealth preservation. 🏛️💚
7/ Finite Supply: Strength or Vulnerability?
Bitcoin’s fixed supply is often touted as a key advantage. Yet this scarcity makes it vulnerable to manipulation by a few major holders. 😬 Gold, on the other hand, sees a natural and gradual expansion through mining, ensuring a balanced, organic market flow. ⚖️🌿
8/ Institutional Adoption: Not the Magic Fix
State and corporate Bitcoin deals are usually quiet, behind-the-scenes OTC transactions that rarely impact open market prices. 🤫 Gold’s widespread institutional acceptance is built on centuries of trust and real-world use—no constant screaming into the void required. 📣🚫
9/ Gold: No Need for Hype, Just Legacy
Gold stands proudly without the constant need for promotion. 🌟 Its legacy of stability, digital adaptability, and secure custody speaks volumes. Bitcoin, burdened by relentless crypto spam and hype, can only watch from the sidelines. 🎭🗣️
10/ Invest in Timeless Security
When it comes to long-term wealth preservation, gold is your steadfast asset. It offers proven security, with both digital tokenization and secure physical storage, ensuring smooth withdrawals and trades every step of the way. 🏦🔐 Bitcoin, by contrast, survives on a steady diet of media noise and desperate promotions. 🚑🤖
Gold remains the reliable, time-tested choice in today’s fast-paced world of trends and fleeting hype. Whether you’re safeguarding your wealth or seeking an asset that seamlessly bridges digital innovation with physical security, gold’s enduring legacy is the real deal. 🌟💎
If you’d like to explore how tokenized gold is revolutionizing traditional finance or uncover more about its industrial applications and secure custody mechanisms, there’s always another layer of brilliance waiting to be discovered. 🚀🔍
TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER INDEX:BTCUSD NASDAQ:MSTR NASDAQ:MARA NASDAQ:COIN CRYPTO:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
EUR_GBP WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅EUR_GBP has hit a key structure level of 0.8540
Which implies a high likelihood of a move down
As some market participants will be taking profit from their long positions
While others will find this price level to be good for selling
So as usual we will have a chance to ride the wave of a bearish correction
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DXYDXY 99.418 Bearish Target – Summary:
99.418 is likely a key support level or technical target based on chart patterns or retracement levels.
It marks a potential bounce zone or short-term bearish goal before deeper levels like 98 or 95.
Break below 100 and weak momentum indicators support the move toward 99.418.
If DXY holds above 99.418, it may trigger a short-term rebound.
Crude Oil's Bearish Trend Continues: Intraday Trading StrategiesDuring the US trading session on Monday, crude oil recovered part of the losses from the sharp decline at the opening of this week. Previously, OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production again, causing crude oil to continue the bearish trend that has been gradually taking shape since March.
Today, the price of crude oil first rose and then fell. After hitting a new low, the upward trend continued, but when it reached around $57.7, it encountered significant resistance. Looking ahead, it is expected that crude oil will experience an oscillation phase first, and then continue its downward trend.
Currently, crude oil is still in a bear - dominated trend. For intraday trading strategies, it is recommended to focus on short - selling on rallies and use buying on dips as a secondary approach. Pay close attention to the resistance range of $57.7 - $58.5 on the upside and the support range of $55.5 - $54.0 on the downside.
USOIL
sell@57.30-57.50
tp:56.50-56.00
Investment itself is not risky; it is only when investment is out of control that risks occur. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment.
ID: 2025 - 0095.5.2025
Trade #9 of 2025 executed.
Trade entry at 137 DTE (days to expiration).
Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 15 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 15. Overlapping short strikes give it the "unbalanced" butterfly nomenclature.
Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved.
OF NOTE: This trade opened at EXCELLENT fills, and there is zero risk to the upside. The danger is of a catastrophic move to the downside, which will bring in phenomenal gains for ID 006 and 008. 😊
Happy Trading!
-kevin
EUR/USD Bearish Setup: QM + Breakout Play Targeting Demand Zone!Hello guys!
I think eurusd is bearish! why?
A Range: Market consolidated in a tight horizontal range before breaking out.
QM Pattern: A lower high and lower low structure indicates potential for a trend reversal.
Neckline Break: Bearish confirmation with a strong break and close below neckline support.
Retest Zone: Price is now revisiting the QM supply zone, offering a high-probability short setup.
Bearish Projection: The next expected move is a drop toward the S&D (Support & Demand) zone between 1.12640 and 1.11900, which aligns with historical demand and previous accumulation.
________________________
🎯 Bearish Target Zone:
First TP: 1.12640
Final TP: 1.11900 - 1.12080 (Demand Zone)
NAS100USD: SMT Divergence Hints at Potential ReversalGreetings Traders,
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, although the current market structure reflects bearish institutional order flow, there are growing signs that a potential reversal may be forming.
Key Observations:
1. Smart Money Technique (SMT) Divergence:
We are currently observing SMT divergence—a strategy where the underlying asset (NAS100) is compared against its benchmark (US500). These indices typically maintain a 90–100% correlation. However, when this correlation breaks down, it often signals that a reversal may be imminent. In this case, while NAS100 continues to show bearish momentum, the divergence from US500 suggests the possibility of bullish interest building.
2. Institutional Support at the Rejection Block:
Further confluence for a potential reversal lies in the presence of a rejection block acting as a strong institutional support level. This is a zone where smart money previously defended price, and if confirmed, it could provide an optimal entry for long positions.
Trading Plan:
We will monitor the rejection block for confirmation of bullish intent before entering any trades. If confirmed, the idea is to target the buy-side liquidity residing in premium pricing zones.
Invalidation Level : This reversal idea will be invalidated if NAS500 breaks below its most recent swing low.
Stay alert for confirmation, and always ensure the idea fits within your broader trading framework.
Kind regards,
The Architect