Compounders: 5 Simple Rules to Build Long-Term WealthImagine this:
…it’s 18 years ago. The very first iPhone has just hit the market.
Meanwhile, Nokia’s legendary “Snake” game, once the height of mobile fun, was starting to feel… dated.
⚡ And you can sense it: something big is coming. You don’t know exactly what, but something is about to shake the system.
So, you invest €1,000 into Apple stock. No fancy moves, no day trading. You don’t check the price every morning, you don’t sell at the first dip. You just hold and go about your life, using their products as always.
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Fast forward to today: the iPhone has evolved quite a bit, and so has your bank account, “a bit”.
That modest €1,000 investment would now be worth roughly €70,000. For context, if you had simply invested in the S&P 500 instead, your total profit would be €3,300.
This is what happens when you hold a real compounder. Apple: +6,942%. S&P 500: +334%. Time doesn’t just pass, it compounds!
Big difference, right?
And the craziest part? You didn’t need a crystal ball. Looking back, everything makes perfect sense.
The real question is:
Can you spot the next one before it becomes obvious?
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📈 Compounders: The slow, steady, and surprisingly effective path to wealth
A compounder is a company that steadily grows your investment over time, powered by a strong business model and consistent value creation.
These stocks don’t need to chase headlines. They don’t create drama, and they certainly don’t swing wildly every week on the stock exchange. They simply keep building value.
Strong financials, good products, and a clear direction—like a snowball quietly rolling downhill, gathering momentum with every meter.
As Warren Buffett once said:
That’s exactly what compounders allow you to do. While you rest, they keep working.
It’s definitely not a get-rich-quick strategy. It’s more like a slow, somewhat boring, and failry a “safer” route. But in return, it might just give you something far more valuable than fast gains: financial peace of mind, and perhaps even financial freedom.
🔍 So how do you spot one?
Now, let’s be clear: compounders are not bulletproof. Market crashes, disruptive competitors, and economic shocks can still shake them.But when the foundation is solid, these companies tend to stand strong, even in a storm.
Here are five key traits that define a true compounder. From consistent growth to an unshakable competitive edge.
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📈 1. Steady Growth
What you want to see is a steady upward trend in both revenue and earnings per share (EPS). Not a rollercoaster. A clean, reliable trend.
A strong compounder doesn’t explode one year and crash the next. It grows year after year. It grows calmly, consistently, and predictably…
Microsoft EPS Q Source: TradingView
That’s usually a sign of solid management and sticky customer demand.
Let’s look at a key metric here:
EPS CAGR (5-year) – the compound annual growth rate of earnings per share.
5% = solid → reliable and steady progress
10% = good → suggests a strong business model and real market demand
15%+ = great → this is where the snowball effect really kicks in, fast and orderly
📌 The higher the CAGR, the faster your investment compounds. But it’s not just about speed, it’s about repeatability. If that growth is not random but repeatable and sustainable, you don’t just have a growth stock → you’ve got a true compounder.
⚠️ Always consider the sector: A 15% CAGR might be normal in tech, but in a consumer brand or industrial company, that’s an exceptionally strong result.
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💡 2. Efficient Capital Allocation
A good compounder doesn’t just grow a lot—it grows wisely.
That means every dollar the company reinvests into its business generates more than a dollar in return.
Think of it like a business where every $1 invested turns into $1.20 or more in profit. The more efficiently it can put capital to work, the faster it compounds over time.
🎯 ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) tells you how effectively a company is using all its invested capital—including both equity and debt.
ROIC shows how much profit the company earns after taxes and costs for every dollar it has invested, regardless of where that money came from.It’s broader than ROE, which only considers shareholder equity.
>10% = solid
>15% = good
>20% = great
🎯 ROE (Return on Equity) measures how well the company generates returns specifically on shareholder money:
>15% = solid
>20% = good
>25% = great
📌 In most cases, ROIC is more important than ROE , since it doesn’t get distorted by how much debt the company is using. But when both numbers are high, you’ve got something that creates a lot of value - a true compounding engine.
Just imagine you give a chef $10 to make a dish. If they can turn that into a $15 meal, their ROIC is 50%. That’s the kind of capital efficiency we want to see in companies too, where every dollar invested pulls serious weight.
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💰 3. High Profit Margins
Selling stuff isn’t hard. Any company can sell something, even at a loss.
A true compounder doesn’t just generate revenue, it earns real profit from it.
That’s where operating margins come into play. They show how much money is actually left over after covering everything: salaries, logistics, rent, office coffee, stolen toilet paper, and all the other lovely overhead costs.
⚙️ Operating Margin – the percentage of revenue that turns into operating profit:
10% = solid → stable profitability, usually driven by volume or efficiency
20%+ = great → often signals strong pricing power, lean cost structure, or a dominant brand
📌 Why does this matter?
Because the more profit a company retains after expenses, the more it can:
- reinvest in new products or markets
- pay dividends to shareholders
- or buy back shares (which automatically increases your ownership per share)
All of these create real, recurring value for you as an investor—not just once, but year after year.
⚠️ One important note: What qualifies as a “high” margin depends on the industry. A software company might easily run at 30% margins, while a retail chain or car manufacturer might be thrilled with 5%.
So don’t judge the number in isolation. Always consider the type of business—in some sectors, profits come from volume, not margin.
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🧱 4. Debt Matters
Even if a company is growing fast and making money, it still doesn’t qualify as a true compounder if it’s drowning in debt.
A real compounder moves forward mostly(!) under its own power, not thanks to borrowed money.
Financially strong companies have a healthy buffer, so they’re not in trouble the moment the economy slows down or credit tightens.
📉 Debt-to-Equity (D/E) – how much of the company is financed with debt versus equity:
Under 1 = solid → reasonable leverage
Under 0.5 = great → very strong and conservative balance sheet
📈 Interest Coverage Ratio – how easily the company can pay its interest expenses:
5× = solid
10×+ = great → very safe, meaning debt costs won’t threaten profitability
📌 The lower the debt and the higher the buffer, the lower the risk.A company with a strong balance sheet doesn’t need to refinance debt in a panic or rely on costly tricks to survive downturns.
Think of it like the foundation of a house. Without it, even the most beautiful structure can collapse.
⚠️ Some industries (like real estate or utilities) naturally operate with higher debt levels. But even in those cases, you want to see a business that controls its debt, rather than living “one day at a time.”
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🏰 5. Durable Competitive Advantage (a.k.a. Moat)
Back in the Middle Ages, a moat was a water-filled trench that protected a castle.Today, in investing, a “moat” is what protects great businesses from competition.
It’s a business that others can’t easily reach or replicate.
💪 When a company has a wide moat, it can:
- Defend its market share even when others try to attack
- Command higher prices—because customers stay loyal
- And if a competitor starts gaining ground, it often has enough capital to... just buy them out
Here are some classic moat types with examples:
- Brand Loyalty – People pay more for something familiarExample: Coca-Cola. There are hundreds of alternatives, but the taste, logo, and brand feel... irreplaceable.
- Network Effects – Every new user strengthens the product or platformExample: Visa, Mastercard. The more they’re used, the harder it is for any new player to break in.
- Technological Edge – The company is simply too far aheadExample: Nvidia, ASML. You can throw money at the problem, but patents and experience aren’t things you copy overnight.
- Ecosystem Lock-in / Habitual Consumption – Customers get “stuck,” and switching feels like a hassleExample: Apple. Once you have the iPhone, AirPods, and MacBook… switching to Android just sounds like a lot of work.Or take Procter & Gamble. If your baby’s used to Pampers, you’re not going back to cloth diapers anytime soon. (To be fair—Huggies might actually be better 😄 That’s Kimberly-Clark, ticker KMB.)
📌 A strong moat allows a company to maintain both profitability and growth for the next 10+ years—because no one else can get close enough to steal it.It’s not fighting tooth and nail for every dollar. It rules its niche quietly and efficiently.
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Now that we’ve covered what makes a business a compounder, the next question naturally follows:
“Okay, but if it’s such a great company... is it still a great price?”
That’s where valuation comes in.P/E ratio: how to know whether you’re paying a fair price or just a premium for the brand.
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👉 In my April article, I clearly broke down P/E along with eight other key fundamental metrics: straightforward, real-world explanations designed to help you actually use them…
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💵 P/E (Price-to-Earnings Ratio)
The P/E ratio tells you how much you’re paying for every $1 of a company’s earnings.
Think of it like this: are you buying solid value for $20… or paying $70 just because the brand sounds familiar?
Now, for compounders, a high P/E (say, 25–40) can actually be fine, IF(!) the company is growing fast and has a strong moat.
Here’s a quick cheat sheet:
* Under 15 → generally cheap (might be a bargain… or a trap)
* 15–25 → fair price for a traditional business
* 25–35 → reasonable if the company is growing consistently
* 35–45 → starting to look expensive, must be justified by fundamentals
* 45+ → expensive, and the market expects big things. One slip-up and the stock could drop fast.
⚠️ A P/E over 40–45 means the market expects strong, sustainable growth.If that growth doesn’t show up, the stock won’t just stumble—it could crash.
But here’s the key: P/E doesn’t work well in isolation. Context is everything.
Before judging the number, always ask:
- What sector is this company in?
- What’s the sector average?
- How fast is the company growing?
- Are the profits stable and sustainable?
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Real-World Examples:
✅ Visa – P/E around 37The average for financial stocks? Usually 10–15.But Visa grows quickly, is highly profitable, and has an ironclad moat.Is it expensive? Yes. But in this case, justifiably so.
✅ Microsoft – P/E around 35Tech-sector average tends to sit between 25–35.Microsoft has consistent growth, high margins, and clear market leadership.A P/E of 35 is absolutely reasonable—as long as the growth story continues.
🤔 But what if Microsoft trades at P/E 50+?
Then you have to ask:Is earnings growth truly supporting that price?Or are you just paying for the brand... and a bit of FOMO?
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Leave a comment:
What’s the highest P/E you’ve ever paid, and was it worth it?
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📘 Compounder Cheat Sheet
Don’t just stare at absolute numbers. Always compare within the sector, consider the company’s growth pace and business model. Ask yourself:
“How much am I paying today for what this company will earn tomorrow?”
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🧩 Summary
Compounders are like good wine, they get better with time.
Find companies that grow steadily, generate profits, keep debt low, and dominate their niche. Hold tight. Stay patient. Let the snowball roll.
Thanks for reading!
If this article was helpful or resonated with you, feel free to like, comment, or share it with a friend! It motivates me more than you’d think. 🙏
And if you’re new here:
🍷 Like good wine, this channel only gets better with time. Follow and let the ideas compound slowly, steadily, and deliciously.
Cheers
Vaido
Beyond Technical Analysis
XAUUSD - Breakdown: - RISK ON/Gold Pullback - Continued IIFrom a technical perspective, if the pre-breakout structure remains intact and gold prices continue to hit resistance and support in the 3344-3330 range, the probability of further gains is high, we need to wait for price stabilization to determine whether the next move is higher toward $3400, or if gold will face a strong rejection from these levels
The global macro trend is upward, with downside pressure on the Dollar, we also have Optimistic Markets so this makes investors want to go into RISK ON, where they move investments from Safe Havens to Riskier investments.
If we maintain the current macro trend and break through the resistance at 3347 and hold it, the next target will be higher targets. I do not rule out a pullback to 3325-3320 or lower (liquidity chasing) before we look for a higher push.
We have important Fundamentals this week, the main driver being NFP, typically NFP week sees all kinds of manipulated and range moves, so trade accordingly.
Higher targets are 3352-3355-3367-33375
Lower targets are 3320-3308
When Holding is Suicide, Hope Is a KillerStill holding… just waiting for it to come back?
You’re not alone. Most traders enter with confidence and exit with fear. But in some situations, holding isn’t strategy — it’s just slow motion account suicide.
If you’ve ever lost sleep after refusing to close a position, this one’s for you.
Hello✌
Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material.
🎯 Analytical Insight on XRP:
XRP is approaching a major daily support zone, aligned with the psychological level of $2.00. This area has historically provided strong buying interest. A potential rebound from this level could lead to a minimum upside of 16%, with a medium-term target around $2.55. 📈
Now , let's dive into the educational section,
🚩 Still Holding? It’s Probably Not About the Chart Anymore
The biggest lie traders tell themselves:
“It’ll bounce back… just give it time.”
But in reality:
Holding a loser drains your mental capital more than your actual balance
The longer you wait without data, the more emotional your decisions get
The market doesn't care about your entry, your hope, or your patience
As they say in trading:
Hope is not a strategy.
And often, it’s the fastest way to wreck your capital quietly.
📊 TradingView Tools to Know When Holding Is Dangerous
Sometimes, charts whisper before they scream. These 4 tools on TradingView help you see when "holding on" is no longer a smart move but a trap. Let’s break them down and make them practical:
1. Volume Profile
This shows you exactly where most buying and selling occurred. If price drops below the highest volume zone, it means conviction is gone.
How to use it:
Right click the chart → Add Indicator → Select "Volume Profile Fixed Range" → Drag across the last trend leg.
2. RSI Divergence
Still holding while RSI shows bearish divergence? That’s a red flag. It signals trend exhaustion.
How to check:
Apply RSI 14. If price makes a higher high but RSI makes a lower high, you're likely holding into weakness.
3. Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
Look for Liquidity Grabs, Breaker Blocks, or Order Blocks. These reveal where big players exit often while you're still hoping.
How to find it:
Go to Indicators → Search “Smart Money Concepts” → Pick a high rated free version.
4. Session Volume / Ranges
If you’re stuck holding during sideways chop, your money is freezing.
How to identify it:
Add Session Volume or Range indicators. If you see price compressing without expansion, it’s not worth staying in.
🪤 5 Situations Where Holding Is Silent Suicide
The market is ranging with no true breakout in sight
Indicators are flashing weakness but you're still “waiting”
You’re only holding because exiting would feel like admitting failure
You missed the exit and now you’re emotionally attached
You fell in love with the fundamentals of a coin and lost objectivity
🧲 Greed vs Hope — Know the Difference
Greed wants more.
Hope just doesn’t want to lose.
Both will blind you from the truth on your chart.
📉 Real World Case: Holding Through a Pumped Altcoin
Last week, thousands held on to a hyped altcoin.
But here’s what the chart said:
RSI was overbought for 3 days straight
Momentum was fading on every push
Smart money exited and left retail praying
Result?
A 48 percent drop in 5 days.
The ones who held are still "hoping" today.
🧘 The Golden Rule of Holding
Before you decide to hold a losing position, ask yourself:
Is this based on actual chart structure or just denial?
Am I trying to avoid the pain of realizing a loss?
If I had no position, would I open this trade right now?
If the answer is no, it’s probably time to get out.
🧭 Final Take
Sometimes holding is wisdom.
Other times, it’s just avoidance wrapped in hope.
Use real data. Use real tools. Make real decisions.
And if it’s time to close that trade, do it before it drags you down deeper.
✨ Need a little love!
We put so much love and time into bringing you useful content & your support truly keeps us going. don’t be shy—drop a comment below. We’d love to hear from you! 💛
Big thanks , Mad Whale 🐋
📜Please remember to do your own research before making any investment decisions. Also, don’t forget to check the disclaimer at the bottom of each post for more details.
EURUSD Bearish ideaWe are in a weekly fair value gap that we have balance and potentially collected orders to prepare for a potential drop in price. We are anticipating a quarterly shift for the month of July were we could be targeting downside liquidity that is in open float.
* Fundamentals:
-Interest rate differentials shows us that USD interest rate of 4.5 is higher than the interest rate EUR 2.15 which lead to the longer fundamental frame work of price correcting to the higher dollar rate to the euro.
-The COT report also indicates to us that there is huge buying of Dollar by the commercials and a huge amount of selling of the EUR by commercials which can lead us to assume potential weaker dollar.
*Targeting:
-We are looking for the low of last month (June) to be taken out as well as even potentially reaching to the implied weekly fair value gap.
GJ: 50 pip bear leg forecastHi everyone,
I'm forecasting a 50 pip bearish leg on GBPJPY from 197.5 down to 197.0
Looking at price to sweep the highs first (liquidity sweep), before then waiting for the right confirmations to take it lower... IF the price says so.
Kind regards,
Aman | SMC Wolf FX
1-1 student onboarding is currently open (website in my signature & profile)
GU: Asian highs > Previous Day Low?Hi everyone,
Here is my forecast this morning for GBPUSD. Overall I'm thinking bearish, but I reckon that price could take out the Asian range highs first and then give us a bearish leg towards the previous day low.
Regards,
Aman | SMC Wolf FX
1-1 student onboarding is currently open (website in my signature & profile)
Quietly Building: A Major Options Position in August AUDEye-catching activity in August AUD options with a strike at 0.67 .
The break-even point for this portfolio sits slightly higher, at 0.674 — and judging by open interest, this is the largest position in play.
Quick reminder:
A break-even level like this could act as a synthetic put building zone by adding short futures to their positions. That means profit from downside moves — with limited risk .
But here’s the catch:
This setup alone doesn’t scream “buy” or suggest strong bullish conviction toward 0.674.
However, it’s definitely worth watching — especially if price starts moving in that direction.
Also keep an eye on option unwinds or roll-overs — they often tell us more about how big players see the future path of the asset.
📈 Bottom line:
Not a clear signal yet — but definitely a pattern forming. Stay tuned.
Follow for more edge-driven breakdowns!
LCrude Oil: Bearish Pressure as Brazil Emerges as an Energy PHLCrude Oil: Bearish Pressure as Brazil Emerges as an Energy Powerhouse
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
LCrude (Ticker AT:Lcrude), which replicates the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contract, has been one of the most volatile assets in 2025. It faces mounting pressure from a growing global supply, cautious demand, and a renewed wave of investment in Latin America—especially in Brazil.
Technical Analysis
Technically, LCrude has lost momentum since the April 2024 highs near $87 per barrel. After breaking the upward trendline in late June, the same daily candle triggered a corrective move toward the $64–$65 range, where it has been trading since. The price entered a downward channel, and the key $66 support was broken decisively. Losing that level opens the door for a drop toward $60 per barrel. On the upside, a recovery above $73 would reignite buying pressure, targeting $78 near the long-term point of control. The support around the $54.72 lows reinforces the view that LCrude is now trading around its mean. Moving average crossovers—where the 200-period MA sits above the 50-period—suggest that price corrections may continue.
Fundamental Analysis
On the macroeconomic front, concerns over economic slowdowns in China and Europe are weighing on demand expectations. At the same time, the outlook for a supply surplus is solidifying, particularly with signals coming from emerging producer countries. One of the most significant developments is the resurgence of Brazilian oil—a silent revolution that could shift the global energy power balance. Brazil, now an external member of OPEC+, has impressed with record discoveries and licensing rounds. Its offshore projects offer an internal rate of return (IRR) close to 26%, among the highest in the world. Sector Experts project that by 2030, Brazil could surpass 5 million barrels per day, placing it among the global top five, just behind the U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia.
However, the sustainability of this growth will depend on the exploration of new frontiers, such as the Foz do Amazonas basin. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that without new discoveries, production could begin to decline after 2030.
Conclusion
LCrude's performance will depend on both technical patterns and fundamental factors tied to geopolitics and the global supply-demand balance. Brazil’s rise on the global energy map and the context of oversupply exert structural bearish pressure on the market. Nonetheless, current levels continue to offer opportunities for traders focused on range strategies and momentum.
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La información facilitada no constituye un análisis de inversiones. El material no se ha elaborado de conformidad con los requisitos legales destinados a promover la independencia de los informes de inversiones y, como tal, debe considerarse una comunicación comercial.
Toda la información ha sido preparada por ActivTrades ("AT"). La información no contiene un registro de los precios de AT, o una oferta o solicitud de una transacción en cualquier instrumento financiero. Ninguna representación o garantía se da en cuanto a la exactitud o integridad de esta información.
Cualquier material proporcionado no tiene en cuenta el objetivo específico de inversión y la situación financiera de cualquier persona que pueda recibirlo. La rentabilidad pasada no es un indicador fiable de la rentabilidad futura. AT presta un servicio exclusivamente de ejecución. En consecuencia, toda persona que actúe sobre la base de la información facilitada lo hace por su cuenta y riesgo.
Trade Idea: WES.ASX – VCP Breakout Play (Buy Setup)🔹 Entry:
✅ Bought @ $85.45
📍 VCP-style setup with tight consolidation above 21EMA/50MA
📈 Early signs of breakout with volume confirmation
🔹 Stop Loss:
🚨 Initial Stop @ $81.56 (Below supertrend support)
⚖️ Risk defined at ~4.6% from entry
🔹 Target Zones:
🎯 T1: $89.30 (1R)
🎯 T2: $91.80–92.50 (2R zone & prior resistance extension)
🔹 Technical Notes:
• Strong uptrend intact
• Supertrend, 21EMA, and 50MA all stacked bullish
• Recent consolidation near highs = strength
• Clean structure with volume dry-up prior to breakout
• RSI holding above 50, MACD positive crossover
🔹 Trade Management Plan:
• Take partial profits at +1R (~$89.30)
• Move stop to breakeven after 1R achieved
• Trail remainder using short-term moving average or price structure
🧠 Context:
WES shows strong leadership within ASX discretionary retail. This breakout could signal the next leg higher if volume expands and price holds above $85.60–86.00.
🔔 Watching for breakout continuation above $86.50 with strength.
DISCLAIMER : The content and materials featured are for your information and education only and are not attended to address your particular personal requirements. The information does not constitute financial advice or recommendation and should not be considered as such. Risk Management is Your Shield! Always prioritise risk management. It’s your best defence against losses.
TCB Checklist Score: 95%🧠 TCB Strategy Breakdown:
This is a textbook example of a TCB Flow setup:
🔹 Trend Phase
The market had been in a strong bullish trend leading into the end of June, topping near 198.800. That bullish impulse set the directional context — the market is overall bullish on the higher timeframe.
Even though price pulled back from those highs, no structural break to the downside occurred. So we still treat the overall flow as bullish.
🔹 Countertrend Phase
From the highs, price began a clean descending channel — the typical correction we look for. It wasn’t random chop — it had defined boundaries, touchpoints, and aligned with the psychology of a cooling market before the next push.
The countertrend ended with a false breakdown below 197.00, quickly rejecting off the 196.850 support zone. That created the final “spring” setup to trap early sellers.
🔹 Breakout Phase
We then get the breakout — price slices through the countertrend channel and closes strongly above it, just above 197.350–197.500 — which also acted as an earlier support–turned–resistance zone. That dual confluence makes this breakout high probability.
The best part? After the breakout, price dipped back into the zone, gave a clean retest wick, and showed bullish rejection — our TCB-style entry trigger.
🧭 Why This Trade Stands Out:
✅ Structure is clear — trend, pullback, breakout all line up visually
✅ No conflicting zones — clean path to TP (198.627)
✅ Risk–Reward solid — SL below last reaction low, TP back to major resistance
✅ Session timing — breakout happening around NY session, ideal for momentum
Clean TCB structure unfolding:
🔹 Trend Phase: Bullish move into 198.800 zone
🔹 Countertrend: Descending channel formed from highs
🔹 Breakout: Price broke above the countertrend channel with confluence at 197.35–197.50 support
✅ TCB Checklist Score: 95%
🎯 Entry: 197.50
🛡️ SL: 196.95
🏁 TP: 198.627
📈 R-Multiple: Projected 2.25R
NY session momentum could push this clean breakout toward target.
Trade the Flow. Master the Market – #TCBFlow
Bitcoin May Break Higher if $108K Clears📊 Market:
BTC trades around $106,860, driven by strong ETF inflows and weaker USD ahead of Fed rate decisions.
📉 Technical:
• Resistance: $107,400–108,000 → breakout may target $110,000+
• Support: $106,500–106,800 → next at $105,500
• EMA: Price above EMA9 → short-term uptrend
• Momentum: RSI > 80, Stoch high → upside potential but overbought
📌 Outlook:
BTC could rise if $108K breaks. If not, expect a pullback to $106,800.
💡 Trade Setup:
🔺 BUY BTC/USD: $107,000–107,200
🎯 TP: 1000–2000 pts
❌ SL: $106,500
🔻 SELL BTC/USD: $108,000–108,200
🎯 TP: $106,800–107,000
❌ SL: $108,500
Is Japan's Economic Future at a Tariff Crossroads?The Nikkei 225, Japan's benchmark stock index, stands at a critical juncture, facing significant pressure from potential US tariffs of up to 35% on Japanese imports. This assertive stance by US President Donald Trump has already triggered a notable decline in Japanese equities, with the Nikkei 225 experiencing a 1.1% drop and the broader Topix Index falling 0.6% on Wednesday, marking consecutive days of losses. This immediate market reaction, characterized by a broad-based selloff across all sectors, underscores profound investor concern and a pre-emptive pricing-in of negative outcomes, particularly for the highly vulnerable automotive and agricultural sectors.
The looming July 9 deadline for a trade agreement is pivotal, with President Trump explicitly stating his intention not to extend the current tariff pause. These proposed tariffs would far exceed previous rates, adding substantial financial burdens to industries already facing existing levies. Japan's economy, already struggling with a recent contraction in GDP and persistent declines in real wages, is particularly susceptible to such external shocks. This pre-existing economic fragility implies that the tariffs could amplify existing weaknesses, pushing the nation closer to recession and intensifying domestic discontent.
Beyond immediate trade concerns, Washington appears to be leveraging the tariff threat to compel allies like Japan to increase military spending, aiming for 5% of GDP amidst rising geopolitical tensions. This demand strains the "ironclad" US-Japan military alliance, as evidenced by diplomatic setbacks and Japan's internal political challenges in meeting such ambitious defense targets. The unpredictable nature of US trade policy, coupled with these geopolitical undercurrents, creates a complex environment where Japan's economic stability and strategic autonomy are simultaneously challenged, necessitating significant strategic adjustments in its international relationships.
Bearish continuationI am expecting price to continue lower from here for the short term. Since we have already mitigated the HTF bullish continuation demand zone this is a medium probability setup. Often this types of setup works best when applied with the LTF confirmation. Also there is a strong spike after the mitigation of daily demand zone so that is a good indication of big money buying pressure.
Weekly Uptrend, Daily Uptrend, H4 Uptrend - It's a BUY????All the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!!
www.tradingview.com
Euro Dollar, institutions are still bullish ($1.20 this summer?)There's one constant on the floating exchange market (Forex) this year, the US dollar is by far the weakest currency. It's the same scenario as the first months of Donald Trump's first term in office in 2017 repeating itself. The US President's stated aim is to give US exporters a competitive exchange rate.
The Euro exchange rate is also being supported higher by a combination of fundamental factors, notably a relative catch-up of European assets against US stock market assets. It is the sum of these fundamentals that is enabling a well-constructed uptrend in the EUR/USD rate on FX this year 2025. A new monthly technical close was recorded on the evening of Monday June 30, and with technical resistances breached, it looks as if the euro-dollar rate is on course to reach $1.20 this summer.
1) A new monthly technical close (June technical close) continues to support the euro-dollar's annual uptrend
The June technical close has been in place for the euro-dollar since the start of the week, providing further bullish chart confirmation. The euro-dollar price has confirmed that it has broken through a descending resistance line in place since the 2008 financial crisis. The price is converging with its momentum (represented here by the RSI and LMACD technical indicators) and the next natural technical target lies at $1.20. This is a technical target for the summer, bearing in mind that in the short term, a move back towards support at $1.15 and $1.17 remains possible.
The chart below shows monthly Japanese candlesticks for the EUR/USD rate, with the Ichimoku, RSI and LMACD technical indicators
2) Institutional traders are still bullish on the euro-dollar rate, according to the CFTC's COT report
What's most interesting about the overall analytical approach is the convergence between technical analysis signals and institutional positioning signals on the EUR/USD rate.
According to the CFTC's COT (Commitment Of Traders) report, institutional traders (hedge funds + asset managers) became net buyers of the euro dollar at the start of 2025, and weekly updates of this positioning data show that their buying exposure is increasing as the EUR/USD price rises. This bullish convergence between chartism and institutional investor positioning lends credibility to a scenario that would see the euro dollar reach resistance at $1.20 this summer. This market view would be invalidated if support at $1.14 were broken.
The two charts below show institutional traders' positions on Euro Dollar futures. Institutional traders were predominantly bullish at the start of the year, and month after month, they are increasing their buying exposure.
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Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Wednesday, 2nd July 2024)Bias: Bullish
USD News(Red Folder):
-ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Notes:
- Strong bullish closure on daily
-Looking continuation buy
after a solid pullback
- Potential BUY if there's
confirmation on lower timeframe
- Pivot point: 3300
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
EMA SystemThe system of Moving Averages I started out using is the 9-21-50 SMA. I would use the Fast EMA as a trailing stop loss and only trade long when it's above the 50 SMA. The 21 SMA is often a zone where price can bounce back.
12-21 EMA—EMA of EMA can work as well. So can 50-200 SMA or EMA of EMA for telling the larger trend if you want to enter an Option, then trading against it can be fatal.
SHORT AUS200/ASX200 - TIME TO SHORT THE AUSSIETeam, over the last few days, we have been successfully SHORT BOTH UK100/AUS200, but I did not post the chart
Today is a good time to post.
Ensure you understand your RISK - can always discuss with us in the room
Let's SHORT UK100/FTSE100, I still expect the market to be volatile even though the US expect a rate cut. on the 9th JULY, there will be a tariff announcement, and it could also extend towards September
We are SHORTING AUS200 at 8586 toward 8616 - SLOWLY
with target at 8562-47
DOUBLE THE SHORT AT 8632-56
Target at 8608-8592
Gold (XAUUSD) – Bias for July 2Yesterday, price broke above the key H4 Lower High zone (3348–3350) with strong bullish momentum.
This breakout suggests a possible shift in the higher timeframe structure — indicating that the market may now be building toward a larger uptrend.
But we don’t chase breakouts — we prepare for the pullback phase .
🔍 What to Watch:
At present, M15 remains in a clean uptrend , fully in sync with the new H4 structure.
This multi-timeframe alignment gives us a clear bullish bias — but not an entry by itself.
We now need to see how price develops the pullback.
The best trades come when structure retraces with clarity — and confirms before continuation.
📍 Key M15 Level to Track:
• 3302 – Current M15 Higher Low
→ If this level holds, we may see a continuation of the uptrend from here.
→ If it breaks, the next potential reversal zone is around 3290 , where demand may reappear.
🎯 Execution Plan:
The trend is now clearly bullish across HTF and LTF.
We will only look for long setups , and only where structure confirms — either at the current HL or at deeper demand zones.
No confirmation = No trade.
No alignment = No edge.
Let price come to you. Our job is not to anticipate, but to align.
📖 From the Mirror Philosophy:
“In trend-following, the edge lies in waiting — not in chasing.
The market will reflect your patience back at you.”
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
Author of The Chart Is The Mirror — a structure-first, mindset-grounded book for traders
UK100/FTSE100 - TIME TO SEND UK100 TO RECESSIONTeam, we are setting two strategies to the SHORT UK100/FTSE100
Ensure you understand your RISK - can always discuss with us in the room
Let's SHORT UK100/FTSE100, I still expect the market to be volatile even though the US expect a rate cut. on the 9th JULY, there will be a tariff announcement, and it could also extend towards September
We are SHORTING UK100 at 8789 toward 8816
Target at 8762-8745
I will DOUBLE the short at 8836-8862
Target at 8816-8805
SPY Stuck at Gamma Ceiling! Will Bulls Break 619 or Get Rejected Again? 🎯
🔍 GEX Option Flow Outlook
SPY is grinding right under the heavy call wall at 619, which aligns with the highest NET GEX resistance zone. The flow is dominated by calls, and GEX is flashing 4 green dots, meaning dealer hedging could drive price higher if 619 breaks cleanly.
* GEX Resistance Wall:
* 🔹 $619–$620 = stacked resistance (Call Wall + GEX7 + GEX8 + GEX9)
* 🚫 Historically acts like a magnet & rejection zone
* GEX Support Wall:
* 🔸 $614 = HVL support (strong bounce zone for 0DTE plays)
* 🔻 $610–$608 = Put Wall danger zone
💡 Based on the current GEX map, if bulls can break above 619 with volume, the path to 623 opens. But failure to do so likely triggers a pullback to 614.
🧠 Smart Money Price Action (1H Chart)
SPY remains in a bullish rising channel, printing higher lows. However, price is stuck inside a CHoCH zone (consolidation under resistance) right under the 619 level.
* BOS from June 27 confirms structure shift
* CHoCH zone holding short-term price action
* 📦 Demand zone: 615–614 → where bulls stepped in before
* Volume dropping = market waiting for catalyst
🎯 Trade Setups:
📈 Bullish Breakout Plan:
* Trigger: Above 619.50 with momentum
* Target: 621 → 623
* Stop: Below 617.50
* Trade Idea: Buy 620C or 622C (0DTE/1DTE) for a quick breakout scalp
📉 Bearish Rejection Plan:
* Trigger: Rejection below 619 with spike in volume
* Target: 614 → 610
* Stop: Above 620
* Trade Idea: Buy 615P or 612P (1–2 DTE) on failed breakout
🧠 My Take:
SPY is at a critical pressure point. If dealers are forced to hedge more delta due to call buying, we could see a breakout. But the Gamma Wall at 619 is real — bulls must break it with force or risk another fade.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. For educational purposes only. Always manage your risk. 🎯