Get started

Beyond Technical Analysis

USDJPYUSD (DXY-based futures): ➤ +1,402 → modest net-long position (buying bias) JPY (Japanese Yen futures): ➤ +144,595 → extremely net-long, near record levels What This Means: USD +1,402 = Mild bullish sentiment — large traders are slightly buying USD, but not aggressively. JPY +144,595 = Very strong bullish sentiment — hedge funds and institutions are heavily buying JPY, suggesting they expect it to strengthen. This gives a bearish bias for USD/JPY: If JPY buying continues, USD/JPY may decline. Bias: Short USD/JPY
Short
by Primus0725
Oooh MolinaMolina has a safe and clean looking chart. I don't see price getting much below the marked level of ~$250, if it even goes there. The longer it consolidates the lesser the chance of price going there which I think is already the case here (as the consolidation 'washes' out the strength of the downtrend). From here to $250 is a ~17% drop, meaning low risk meaning higher position size. As always no investment advice, but I see this platform a bit like my investment diary so you already now what I'm going to do.
NYSE:MOHLong
by EyyJasper
Brent Crude Oil's Defining Moments: Analyzing the Top 5 MovesThe oil market has experienced unprecedented volatility over the past two years, with five pivotal moments generating the most significant price movements in Brent crude. The Top 5 Market Movers: 1. June 13, 2025 (+7.02%): Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and oil facilities triggered the largest single-day surge to $74.23/barrel, demonstrating how geopolitical events can instantly drive supply disruption fears. 2. April 8, 2025 (-15.67% over 5 days): Trump's tariff escalation and US-China trade war intensification caused the most severe multi-day decline, ending at $62.82/barrel as traders priced in global economic slowdown. 3. October 7, 2024 (+12.76% over 5 days): Escalating Israel-Iran tensions drove a significant rally to $80.93/barrel as markets built in geopolitical risk premiums ahead of expected retaliatory strikes. 4. September 3, 2024 (-6.41%): Libya's oil dispute resolution combined with weak global demand outlook caused a sharp drop to $73.75/barrel, showing how supply resolutions can trigger selloffs. 5. October 6, 2023 (-11% weekly crash): The end of driving season combined with demand concerns and interest rate fears triggered the biggest weekly decline since March 2023, with Brent falling to $84.07/barrel as gasoline demand hit yearly lows. Current Fundamental Landscape and Path Forward The EIA forecasts Brent averaging $66/barrel in 2025 and $59/barrel in 2026, below recent levels due to trade uncertainties and slower growth. Three key factors will drive future prices: US-China trade resolution, Middle East geopolitical risks, and OPEC+'s production strategy. Recent volatility shows that while fundamental supply-demand dynamics remain important, geopolitical events, trade policies, and seasonal demand patterns can generate dramatic price swings that overwhelm traditional market forces.
TVC:UKOIL
by Jacques1000
continue to move accumulation: below 109,000💎 Update Plan BTC (June 20) Notable news about BTC: Semler Scientific (SMLR) unveiled an ambitious three-year strategy on Thursday aimed at significantly expanding its Bitcoin holdings to 105,000 BTC by the end of 2027. The announcement coincided with the appointment of a new executive to lead the firm’s digital asset initiative. The Nasdaq-listed healthcare firm has named Joe Burnett as its Director of Bitcoin Strategy, a move it believes will strengthen its long-term treasury vision and enhance shareholder value. As part of this strategic shift, Semler Scientific plans to accumulate Bitcoin through a mix of equity and debt financing, alongside reinvested cash flows from its core business operations. Technical analysis angle BTC as well as XauUSD are trapped in the channel price 104k to 110k these are also two important milestones of BTC. Also congratulations to investors when detecting the bottom of 104k. The next expectation within the price channel is still maintained at 110k landmark But with the recent moves of investors, the community is afraid that BTC will continue to adjust in the future. ==> Comments for trend reference. Wishing investors successfully trading
Short
by Nova-Scalper
1
Market next move 🔻 Disruptive Analysis – Bearish Scenario 1. Resistance Rejection: Price has stalled around 145.40, showing hesitation. The target area (~148.000) hasn't been tested yet, and prior attempts to break higher may face heavy resistance from institutional sell orders or prior supply zones. 2. Range-Bound Structure: Current price action shows consolidation — multiple small-bodied candles. Lack of volume or momentum may indicate accumulation or distribution — not necessarily a bullish breakout setup. 3. Potential Bearish Triggers: If price breaks below 145.00, a short-term bearish move could occur toward: 144.30 – recent swing low support. 143.80 – demand zone based on prior accumulation. 4. Macro Disruptors: Surprise BoJ intervention or hawkish policy tone could strengthen the Yen. A dovish Fed statement or poor U.S. economic data could drag USD down sharply. --- 📉 Alternate Scenario Chart Sketch (Hypothetical): 148.000 ──────── (Target denied - strong resistance) ↑ Rejection ↓ 145.000 ──────── (Breaks support) ↓ 144.300 ──────── (First bearish target) ↓ 143.800 ──────── (Deeper retracement zone)
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
Gold Formation as Growing trendXAUUSD (Gold) Price Analysis Gold is currently testing trend support, undergoing a deep correction amid a complex fundamental backdrop. Several key factors are influencing market sentiment: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East Comments from the Federal Reserve Former President Trump's expressed desire for lower interest rates These developments are contributing to market uncertainty, which typically supports gold as a safe haven. 🔍 Technical Outlook Support Zone: 3350 Resistance Levels: 3400 and 3420 Before further upside, a retest of the 3350 support zone is possible. You can see more details in the Chart Ps Support with like and comments for more analysis.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MrMartin_11
1
XAUUSD - Breakdown: Israel-Iran Conflict - RISK OFF Part III missed to Publish my Idea here, I frequently share charts on my X handle for those who would like to follow, @JOHNDOUGHFX OK let get into it.. I will publish my entire Idea as I did from the start of the sells, it has been quiet accurate but with terrible choppy PA. FOMC likely a no move event. Rates to stay high due to tariff risks, Gold has been sentiment driven from last week-so Risk ON/OFF dominates. Israel-Iran talks ongoing → expect noise + fake escalations before a “Deal" Gold Order Flow zones at 3409 / 3450 Israel–Iran conflict = main wildcard. Expect sudden headline moves: escalation threats → quick spikes. But watch for fake outs followed by a “deal” headlines. That’s your Risk ON trigger. Buy the rumor, sell the news. Key levels for OANDA:XAUUSD : ⚠️ Liquidity trap zone: 3409–3415 ⚠️ Double top watch: 3448–3450 (psy level) Below 3400, we could fade toward: 🔻 3350 🔻 3330 🔻 3322 Plan both sides, don’t chase breakouts. For today's Analysis, Yesterday we have closed a bullish Doji Candle, signaling buyers, even though we broke below today, there was no selling pressure breaking the previous Daily low, and it has reacted close to As we have tapped the 39 Area, and pulled back, 43-45 if defended, will see price push higher into the high 65-70-75 extended Price Points before we can look for sells again. As Iran - US tensions are now extended for 2 weeks, I believe the typical news escalations will keep price action on the edge, at present the market is sentiment driven with Risk OFF, so plan your trades accordingly. Risk ON can come with any optimistic news, especially a "DEAL" Cheers and have a good last trading day!!
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by JOHNDOUGHFX
2
Report – June 20, 2025EU–US Trade Dynamics: Strategic Delay, Political Risk, and Economic Recalibration The European Union is now pivoting toward a “UK-style” deal with the United States, marking a key shift in strategy as the July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline imposed by President Trump looms. At stake is a potential escalation of U.S. tariffs from 10% to 50% on EU goods, including wine, whiskey, cars, and steel — products vital to EU member states’ exports. Senior German and Commission officials now favor deferring a full trade deal in favor of a staged agreement, keeping some tariffs in place while avoiding immediate retaliation. This aligns with internal division within the EU: France favors reciprocal retaliation, while Italy and Hungary prefer maintaining dialogue to avoid a trade war. From a macro perspective, the EU appears willing to accept sectoral trade-offs and quota adjustments, including concessions in sensitive areas like autos and agricultural exports. The €198 billion EU goods surplus with the U.S. remains a political flashpoint, with Brussels offering increased LNG and defense purchases to placate the U.S. Market Implications: Avoid positioning in European exporters heavily exposed to U.S. retaliatory risk (autos, wine, luxury). Monitor USD/EUR, as any tariff escalation would hurt the euro short-term. Watch defense and LNG stocks for inflows tied to strategic purchases. ----------------------------- SNB Rate Cut to 0%: FX Stabilization Over Stimulus The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its policy rate to 0.00%, citing deflationary pressures and a surging franc, which is up 10% YTD versus the U.S. dollar. Swiss CPI came in at -0.1% YoY in May, a rare and politically sensitive contraction. The SNB stopped short of reintroducing negative rates but left the door open if the deflationary impulse persists. Traders had priced in a deeper cut, prompting a franc rally on the decision and a 10Y yield rebound to -0.09%. Chair Martin Schlegel emphasized caution, citing saver impact and pension fund distortions as constraints on policy innovation. The SNB’s stance is now materially diverging from the Fed’s hawkish hold and the BoE’s slow easing path. Market Implications: CHF strength likely capped unless further easing surprises. Short Swiss sovereigns (2–5Y) could be tactical shorts if inflation turns up. Supports EUR/CHF tactical longs as the ECB eyes dovish alignment. ---------------------------- Biofuels Surge: Strategic Rotation From Crude Amid Iran–Israel Escalation Biofuel feedstocks, especially soybean oil (+11%) and palm oil (+6%) are spiking amid the Israel–Iran conflict, rising Brent prices, and U.S. political support for agricultural energy substitutes. Trump’s EPA proposal calls for a 67% increase in biomass diesel mandates, benefiting U.S. farmers and biofuel refiners. This proposal, combined with reduced compliance credit access for foreign feedstocks, advantages domestic production over imports (notably Canadian rapeseed and Chinese used oil). It also aligns with a swing-state election strategy, as soybean growers in Iowa remain key to Trump’s base. Market Implications: Long soy/palm oil and related ETFs (e.g., SOYB). Long U.S. agricultural input and biofuel refiners (ADM, BG, REGI). Monitor Brent–biofuel spread for continued divergence on geopolitical headlines. ---------------------- Tanker Markets Signal Energy Supply Risk Premium Rates to charter oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles ~20% of the world’s seaborne oil have more than doubled since Israel’s attack on Iran. VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates from the Gulf to China rose from $19,998 to $47,609/day, far outpacing the broader 12% rise in global tanker indices. Shipping firms are hesitant to transit the strait, with many demanding “risk premiums” or re-routing. Compounding the issue, Iran’s sanctioned “dark fleet” may now be avoided altogether, forcing buyers to seek compliant vessels, tightening supply. A reported collision between Frontline’s Front Eagle and a dark fleet tanker underscored the operational risks in this vital corridor. Traders are increasingly pricing in oil flow bottlenecks, which, if realized, could push Brent well above $85–90/bbl. Implications: Long tanker stocks (e.g., Frontline, Euronav) on rising charter rates. Risk-off hedges in Brent futures, oil volatility, and Gulf-exposed equities. Long pipeline or refined product ETFs in event of sustained disruption. --------------------------------- U.S. Steel “Golden Share”: Strategic M&A Gets Political The Trump administration’s decision to insert a “golden share” into Nippon Steel’s $14.9B acquisition of U.S. Steel sets a critical precedent. The U.S. now retains veto rights over major operational decisions without owning equity, a move unseen since Cold War-era defense deals. While framed as a one-off, lawyers and multinationals are sounding the alarm. The “golden share” gives the government leverage over plant closures, sourcing policy, and capital expenditures, highly unusual for an open market economy. Investors are worried this introduces deal uncertainty, foreign policy risk, and precedent creep into future M&A, particularly in critical sectors (defense, semiconductors, energy). Implications: Watch CFIUS-sensitive sectors: materials, semis, strategic tech. Increased political risk premium for inbound foreign investment. Traders may discount foreign bids or value U.S. corporates at a control-adjusted premium. ---------------------------------- FSB Flags Commercial Real Estate Systemic Risks The Financial Stability Board (FSB) released a report warning of hidden fragility in the $12 trillion global commercial real estate market, citing: 12.6% delinquency rates in U.S. office CMBS Debt-to-assets ratios >45% High leverage in REITs and property funds across U.S., Canada, Germany, and Singapore FSB warned of liquidity mismatches in property funds, growing non-performing loans at banks, and “complex interlinkages” between banks and shadow real estate lenders. The Board’s message is clear: CRE remains a slow-burning systemic threat, and a shock such as a rate spike, recession, or refinancing wall, could catalyze contagion. Implications: Bearish CRE-focused REITs (office, retail), neutral industrial. Long protection via CMBS CDS indexes or synthetic shorts. Monitor banking exposure (esp. regional U.S., EU banks with high real estate leverage). ----------------------------------- Microsoft–OpenAI: Strategic AI Rift Emerging Microsoft may walk away from renegotiations with OpenAI over its transition to a for-profit structure. Discussions have stalled over equity allocation (debated range: 20–49%), revenue rights, and infrastructure priorities. Microsoft currently enjoys: 20% rev share up to $92B Exclusive rights to Azure deployment Priority IP access before AGI However, Microsoft’s growing skepticism and pivot toward xAI’s Grok model indicates a broader strategic hedge against OpenAI dominance. Microsoft believes AI models will become commoditized, and value will shift to apps and agents. OpenAI, meanwhile, risks violating investor terms if it fails to convert. A delay could cause SoftBank to claw back up to $10B in committed capital. Implications: Monitor MSFT valuation for AI execution risk. Long AI infra (NVDA, AMD) vs. short high-burn LLM firms if OpenAI deal stalls. OpenAI IPO prospects now depend on rapid renegotiation or new lead investors.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Buranku
Will Middle East Flames Ignite Winter Gas Prices?The global natural gas market is currently navigating a period of profound volatility, with prices surging and defying typical seasonal trends. This significant upward movement is primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically the intensifying conflict between Iran and Israel, coupled with the looming potential for direct US military intervention. This complex interplay of factors is fundamentally reshaping perceptions of global energy supply and influencing investor sentiment, pushing natural gas prices towards critical psychological and technical thresholds. Direct military strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure, including the world's largest gas field, the South Pars, have introduced a tangible threat to supply at the source. This is compounded by the strategic vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint through which a significant portion of the world's liquefied natural gas (LNG) transits. Despite Iran possessing the world's second-largest natural gas reserves and being the third-largest producer, international sanctions and high domestic consumption severely limit its export capabilities, making its existing, albeit modest, export volumes disproportionately sensitive to disruption. Europe, having strategically pivoted to LNG imports following the reduction of Russian pipeline gas, finds its energy security increasingly tied to the stability of Middle Eastern supply routes. A prolonged conflict, especially one extending into the crucial winter months, would necessitate substantial LNG volumes to meet storage targets, intensifying competition and potentially driving European gas prices higher. This environment of heightened risk and volatility also attracts speculative trading, which can amplify price movements beyond fundamental supply-demand dynamics, embedding a significant geopolitical risk premium into current market valuations. This confluence of direct infrastructure threats, critical chokepoint risks, and Europe's structural reliance on global LNG flows creates a highly sensitive market. The trajectory of natural gas prices remains inextricably linked to geopolitical developments, with potential for further substantial increases in an escalation scenario, or sharp reversals should de-escalation occur. Navigating this landscape requires a keen understanding of both energy fundamentals and the intricate, often unpredictable, currents of international relations.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by UDIS_View
Market next target 🔻 Bearish Disruption Analysis 1. Overbought Conditions / RSI Exhaustion The recent bullish momentum appears strong, but it could be entering overbought territory, especially on the 1-hour chart. A correction may follow if technical indicators like RSI or MACD start diverging. 2. Resistance Zone at 1.35000 - 1.35500 The price is nearing a historical resistance area around 1.3500–1.3550, where sellers have previously stepped in. Without strong volume or a news catalyst, this zone may reject further upside movement. 3. Low Volume Breakout The breakout visible before the arrows is accompanied by relatively moderate volume, which can indicate a false breakout or bull trap. 4. Fundamental Uncertainty Upcoming U.S. or UK economic data (indicated by the flags on the chart) could disrupt the expected bullish move. Example: A strong USD labor report or hawkish Fed comment could reverse the GBP/USD rally.
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
Trade Ideas For GOLD: Long and Short TRADE IDEA FOR SHORTS: Price may try to sell at Previous Day's High. It may reject PDH following the order flow. US involvement will boost the metals. Trump may announce or strike on the weekend. TRADE IDEA FOR LONGS: The unmitigated demand level has broken structure. Buyers here created new highs. So there may be a willingness to buy again from this level, considering the looming US involvement in Iran Israel war. I would be targeting the unmitigated sellers' block at 3.410.21
EASYMARKETS:XAUUSD
by simplestupid
BITCOIN, trend outlook for this summerWhile the fundamentals are still very complicated on the stock market at present, with the FED intransigent, trade war/diplomacy (deadline set for July 9 to reach trade agreements) and extreme geopolitical tensions, can the bitcoin price withstand all these challenges and continue its annual bull run over the summer? Let's take a look at a number of elements, including a major technical risk and two factors that are, on the contrary, favorable to a new record this summer. 1) Bitcoin's bullish cycle linked to the spring 2024 halving is still long Let's start with the cyclical aspect of bitcoin, the famous 4-year cycle built around the quadrennial halving. The last halving took place in April 2024, and if the cycle repetition works again, then the current cycle is due to end at the end of 2025. So there's still time for bitcoin to set a new record, even if it comes under short-term pressure - it still has 5 months to go. The first chart below summarizes the 4-year cycle by averaging the time and price of all previous cycles since 2009. Our current cycle is represented by the red curve, and in terms of probability, the end of the cycle is expected between October and December 2025. There's still time, and this is the first major piece of information in our article. 2) A bearish technical divergence in weekly data calls for great caution On the other hand, technical analysis of the bitcoin price in weekly data gives a warning signal with the presence of a bearish price/momentum divergence, market momentum being represented here by the RSI technical indicator. This bearish divergence resembles that at the end of the previous cycle in November 2021, but the comparison stops here. At that time, all end-of-cycle models were on alert, but this is not the case today. Nevertheless, we must be aware that this bearish divergence could be a pressure factor this summer. 3) Global liquidity as represented by the M2 monetary aggregate gives grounds for optimism about bitcoin's summer trend Global M2 deploys a strong positive correlation with the bitcoin price, and it takes an average of 12 weeks for this liquidity to act on BTC. This monetary aggregate measures the sum of the money supply (M2) of the major economies - USA, China, Eurozone - converted into US dollars. It includes sight deposits, savings accounts and certain short-term instruments, representing the gross liquidity immediately available in the global economy. This level of liquidity is directly influenced by monetary (key rates, QE/QT), fiscal and wage policies. The evolution of the US dollar plays a crucial role: a strong dollar mechanically reduces global M2 in USD, while a weak dollar increases it. In this respect, Chinese and US dynamics are often divergent, as they are driven by different credit logics (centralized planning on the Chinese side, rate-based adjustment on the US side). Since the beginning of April, Bitcoin has been on a marked uptrend. This progression, which we have followed step by step, raises an essential question: can this momentum be maintained this summer, despite the fundamental challenges of the moment? Such a hypothesis is plausible, provided that a key - and often underestimated - driver continues to act: the unprecedented increase in global liquidity, as measured by the M2 monetary aggregate. According to the latest available data, global M2 has set a new all-time record, and this is a factor supporting the BTC trend for the first part of the summer. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Swissquote
INDUSTOWER BULLISH PATTERN📡 "Tower Break! Signal Caught at ₹400" 🚀 Chart Pattern: Falling Trendline Breakout + Range Break 📈 Current Price: ₹400.25 🎯 Target: ₹448.80 🛡️ Stoploss: ₹388.15 📊 Risk:Reward ≈ 1:3.75 🔍 Volume Spike confirms breakout 🔻 Accumulation between ₹360–₹395 now acting as base 💡 Trade Setup: After a long consolidation in a rectangular range, the price has broken out of both horizontal and descending resistance lines with strong volume. The price is above the breakout zone and retesting the level.
NSE:INDUSTOWERLong
by MyT_Trader
Safe Entry Zone BTCBTC Current Movement Ranging. P.High's (Previous Highs) acts as good Support and resistance level. 4hh & 1D Green Zone Is Buying Zone. 4h Red Zone is Selling Zone. If No Buying Power showed at 4h Zone BTC will target 1D is safest Entry Zone. if price went above Red Zone BTC Movement will change to Up-Movement and Vice Versa Note: 1- Potentional of Strong Buying Zone: We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone: Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle. Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone. Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up. 2- How to Buy Stock: On 15M/1h TF when Marubozu/Doji Candle show up which indicate strong buyers stepping-in. Buy on 0.5/1h Fibo Level of the Marubozu/Doji Candle, because price will always and always re-test the imbalance.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Faisalzor