It's been a bad week for ADI, but that's what makes it tastyLong today after the close at 210.40.
Historically, ADI has been a top 20 performer for my trading system, so a 1 week slump doesn't faze (NOT phase) me a bit. Long term, it has a dazzling track record for what I do, so short term struggles just look like an opportunity for me.
Historically, this particular setup is 359-1 (the one would be a trade from late February that would be down about 12% right now. Including that loser, the median trade in ADI has produced a return of 1.9% and taken 2 trading days. Some of these trades CAN take a very long time. Included in that data are 2 trades that would have taken over 15 YEARS to become profitable after the dot.com crash. But those are EXTREME anomalies. 90% of the trades closed in 3 weeks or less, and 77% closed in one week or less. That covers every trade going all the way back to 1970.
I don't anticipate the signal occurring multiple times before the trade closes, but it does happen occasionally. If it does, I will add to the position. I will generally close the trade at the first profitable close, as long as the profit is > 0.10%.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
Beyond Technical Analysis
Nothing to love about this chart - but I'm a quant trader...If you've been following me for any length of time, you know what a trader-crush I have on TSCO. The success I've had with it over time has been about as good as any stock I trade.
This is a sad chart, when you look at it. There's really nothing here that screams buy right now. But the chart doesn't tell the whole story. While I'm not using my typical algo for this trade, I still have data on my side, and for me, that is what matters.
This situation has occurred 210 times in the history of TSCO and has paid off every single time. The results are even better, historically, than with the algo I usually use. The average gain is 2.14% in an average of 6.2 days. That's .34% per day held, or 86% annualized, and nearly 8x the average daily return of the market. But that's not the best part. Almost 80% of trades closed in 1 week or less, 92% in 3 weeks or less, and over 50% closed in one day.
I entered long at today's closing price of 49.67. The entry situation doesn't usually stick around for multiple days, but should it do so, I'll add to the position. While in this case, I usually close the trade on the close of the first bar the trade becomes profitable, if the gain is less than 0.1%, I will extend the trade.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
KASPA wave C of Expanding Flat. Bullish!This is my bullish elliott wave scenario for kaspa, currently beginning wave 3/3/5 of wave C so should be a nice ride up to clear our extreme of wave A at 0.12012. Conservative invalidation at the bottom of wave B 0.10159. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Its simply my opinion based on Elliott Wave Theory
I like, not love, META on a quick flip - long at 640.34As a short term mean reversion trader, I don't like charts that go straight up. Since late April, that's what META has done. With just a small pullback from its recent highs, this is a spot where if the trade works, it should work quickly, playing off the stock's recent momentum. But if it doesn't pay off quickly, the risk is that I'm getting in near the top of a 35% run in under a month and those trades typically take a LONG time to pay off when that happens. So more so than usual, I'd suggest spectating on this one.
When my biggest reason for taking the trade is that there just weren't any other options today, that's not a position I like to be in. That said, META has some things going for it.
1) momentum. the same momo that scares me would have scared me half of this run ago.
2) it hasn't yet closed below the trendline in place since the beginning of this run.
3) it bounced off of support today from the March 25 intermediate high.
4) it's trading above its 200d MA - always a good thing.
5) the signal has been nearly infallible to this point. it has produced a 91%+ win rate (1.8 profit factor) on 373 trades since last June that I've posted on here.
All of that is great, but I won't stop being nervous about this one until the trade is closed. This will definitely be a FPC exit on this one.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
Nasdaq 100. Mistakes and Daily Orderflow 27.05.25Covered the mistakes that I have made while reading the price. Wanted the shorts although the daily and the 4H suggested bullish price action. The good think was didn't forced. Just left the market after booking partials and breakeven
Post that took one long towards the Volume Imbalance
USDCHF Expected to find there SupportUSD/CHF is currently losing momentum in the background as the U.S. dollar weakens. The pair is testing the support zone within its consolidation range. Although the overall structure is ranging, a local descending channel is forming, indicating a potential short-term bearish bias.
Short-Term Outlook:
The price is expected to find support within the channel, possibly leading to a short-term bounce or consolidation near key levels. A break below the current support could accelerate bearish momentum.
Key Support Levels:
1sT Support 0.82007
2nd Support 0.81500
you can find more details in the chart, Ps support with like and comments for more better analysis.
GOLD HUNTER MODE: XAUUSD H1 OUTLOOK + DAILY PLAN (May 26, 2025)Hey GoldFxMinds crew! 🌟 Hope you’re ready for a fresh week with the kind of sniper focus that turns confusion into clarity. Let’s break down Monday’s key levels and structure, so you trade with confidence, not hope.
Current price: ~3358
Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish, but caution is king as price sits at the top of a major H1 range.
🟤 PREMIUM ZONES – SELL INTEREST
🔻 3358–3368
H1 premium supply zone (last week’s local high + FVG unfilled)
Price hit premium, strong reactions likely
🦅 Eyes on — watch this area for potential sharp rejections or fakeout spikes!
🔻 3380–3395
M15/M30 extension, just above the current HH, in unmitigated OB + FVG
High risk for wicks and “bull trap” inducement
🦅 Aggressive sellers: this is your upper defense — don’t get faked!
🟢 DISCOUNT ZONES – BUY INTEREST
🟩 3325–3335
H1 demand/FVG + retest zone, previous breakout base
CHoCH confirmed, so first bounce possible here
🦅 Eyes on — look for bullish PA or quick rebounds, but wait for confirmation!
🟩 3295–3312
M15/M30 deep demand, oversold last week, zone of confluence with 50 EMA
If price nukes through first demand, this is the next major long trigger
🦅 This is where real buyers step in — be patient, don’t rush!
🟠 INTRADAY MID-ZONE
⚡ 3340–3348
Intraday equilibrium, lots of chop expected
Not ideal for entries; instead, use this zone to judge direction after NY open
🦅 Eyes on — let price tell the story, don’t force trades in the middle!
📊 STRUCTURE RECAP (H1 + M15/M30 Confluence)
Bullish structure intact above 3325–3330, but buyers need to defend each demand zone or we retrace lower.
Premium zones above 3358 are loaded with liquidity and can reverse fast. If price fakes out above 3368–3395 and rejects hard, expect a selloff to next demand.
If buyers defend 3325–3335 with a strong CHoCH/BOS, we can see a new impulse leg higher.
👋 Final Note: Watch, Don’t Chase!
This is a week for patient, sniper-style entries. Watch the 3358–3368 zone like a hawk — every wick, every fakeout counts!
Don’t get trapped in the chop; let price come to your key POIs and wait for confirmation.
If you found this plan helpful, smash that like, follow, and drop your questions or thoughts below! Your feedback fuels the next level of analysis.
Let’s crush the week, team! 🚀
— GoldFxMinds
Market next move
1. Misleading Bullish Label
Issue: The chart marks the latest price action as "Bullish" based on a short-term recovery.
Disruption: This could be a dead-cat bounce — a temporary recovery in a downtrend. The overall trend from the prior candles is bearish, and a few green candles don’t confirm a reversal without volume or structural confirmation.
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2. Volume Analysis Ignored
Issue: The volume spike accompanying the recent green candles is not fully analyzed.
Disruption: Although there's higher volume, it could be short covering or a reaction to news, not organic buying interest. No volume divergence or institutional footprint confirmation is given.
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3. No Confirmation Pattern
Issue: No mention of chart patterns (e.g., double bottom, inverse head and shoulders, etc.).
Disruption: Calling it “bullish” without a clear technical pattern or confirmation (like a break of resistance or retest) is speculative.
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4. Vague Target
Issue: The “Target” is labeled without specifics.
Disruption: There's no price level, Fibonacci retracement, or resistance level justification. A target without rationale lacks credibility.
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5. No Risk Management
Issue: No stop-loss or risk level is discussed.
Disruption: Without defined risk-reward ratio, the analysis is incomplete and not tradable. Every strategy needs downside planning.
Market next target Disruption of the Analysis
1. Weak Confirmation of Reversal: The chart shows a possible target zone after a recent small bullish move, but the candlestick reversal pattern is weak and lacks a strong confirmation candle. Without a bullish engulfing or a high-volume breakout, this “Target” may be premature.
2. Downtrend Momentum Intact: Despite the slight bounce, the broader trend remains bearish (visible by the previous lower lows and lower highs). No trendline break or structural shift supports a move toward the target.
3. Volume Does Not Support Breakout: Although there is a small spike in green volume, it does not exceed previous bearish volume, which suggests that buyers are not yet in control.
4. Over-reliance on Visual Targeting: The “Target” label appears to be placed based on a subjective expectation, not on a clear technical structure like a resistance level, Fibonacci retracement, or moving average. This makes it speculative.
5. Lack of Indicator Confluence: There are no visible indicators (like RSI, MACD, or EMA crossovers) shown to justify a reversal. Trading solely on price action without confirmation from indicators reduces reliability.
Market Outlook and Entry Strategy for UPLBased on the daily chart structure, the current market trend is bullish, evidenced by a Break of Structure (BOS). The price has already retraced to the 70% Fibonacci level on the same timeframe, indicating a healthy pullback within the ongoing trend.
However, despite this bullish context, this is not yet an ideal high-probability entry for either swing or short-term positional trading. The reason is that there remains an unmitigated Fair Value Gap (FVG) located near an extreme order block. This inefficiency could draw price lower before a continuation move.
Recommended Strategy:
Wait for price to revisit the order block that aligns with the FVG.
Upon reaching this zone, look for confirmation via:
A Change of Character (CHoCH) or
A Flip zone formation on a lower timeframe.
Entry Confirmation:
For swing trading, monitor the 15-minute timeframe for a CHoCH or flip as confirmation.
For short-term positional entries, use the 1-hour timeframe to confirm a reversal or structure shift.
Once confirmation is observed at the order block zone, this will provide a high-probability entry aligned with the prevailing bullish trend and refined institutional order flow concepts.
Market next move
Bullish Disruption Scenario
1. False Resistance Breakdown:
The red zone marked as resistance may fail to hold. The recent strong bullish candle and volume spike hint at possible accumulation rather than rejection.
2. Breakout and Retest Play:
Price could break above the resistance zone, retest it as new support, and then continue higher—invalidating the expected red and blue downward paths.
3. Volume Behavior:
The most recent green volume spike could signal strong institutional buying, which often precedes a breakout.
4. Higher Lows Formation:
Price structure is creating higher lows, which is a bullish signal in consolidation before breakout.
5. Market Sentiment:
If upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data (see flag icons) is dovish or supportive of crypto risk-on assets, BTC could rally sharply.
Market next move Bearish Disruption Scenario
1. Resistance Zone Holding (Red Box):
The current price is testing a strong resistance zone (highlighted in red).
There’s a chance that this level won't be broken easily due to historical supply or institutional sell orders.
2. Volume Spike Warning:
The recent green volume bars show increased buying, but this could signal buyer exhaustion if no significant breakout follows.
3. Fake Breakout Potential:
Price may perform a false breakout above the resistance, trapping late buyers before reversing down sharply.
4. Bearish Candlestick Confirmation:
If the next few candles form a reversal pattern (like a bearish engulfing or shooting star), it would support a short-term correction or drop.
5. Macro & News Risk:
Note the upcoming economic events (flag icons). U.S. or Japan economic data could disrupt the technical setup.
SCGBHD TO CONT MARK UPThis is a continuation trade idea from my prev post
***refer to link below
Since the BUEC , Price advancing for about 45%..
Not qualified for a Power Play by the way
**(Or can consider Semi Power Play)
With a formation of Feather's Weight (Red Line)
SpringBoard sign prompted me to initiate position as attached
Tight Risk
PURE WYCKOFF
NZDUSD higher falls expecting
OANDA:NZDUSD ASCENDING CHANNEL visible, we are have break of same on 23.5, price is start pushing but on first res zone (0.60200), price is start making reverse.
Currently again in ASCENDING CHANNEL expectations for this week are to see break and bearish push.
SUP zone: 0.59800
RES zone: 0.58450, 0.58200
ETH >>> Inverse Head & Shoulders Breakout Sets Stage for RallyHello guys!
Ethereum has formed a textbook inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 15-minute timeframe and just confirmed a breakout above the neckline. This bullish reversal formation comes after a sharp downtrend, signaling a potential shift in short-term momentum.
📌 Breakout Level: ~$2,645
🎯 Potential Target: ~$2,730–$2,750 based on the pattern height
🟦 Retest Zone: ~$2,620–$2,640
We’re currently seeing a healthy breakout followed by a possible retest of the neckline, which could offer a solid entry for continuation toward the upper boundary of the channel.
If bulls hold this structure, ETH could accelerate higher in the coming sessions.
ETH ANALYSIS🔴 #ETH Analysis : ❓❓
🔮There is a formation of "Bullish Pennant Pattern" in #ETH in 4HR time frame. We can expect around $2800 bullish move if the price break the pattern.📈
⚡️What to do ?
👀Keep an eye on #ETH price action. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits. ⚡️⚡️
#ETH #Cryptocurrency #Breakout #DYOR