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FED FUNDS Rate Inflation Adjusted Remains TightFED FUNDS Rate Inflation Adjusted for core inflation remains in the tightening area. As inflation rises over the next few months, thanks to Trump's liberating all Americans with higher taxes and less discretionary income to spend. I expect this chart to drop as inflation rises and Fed holds rates steady. Alternatively, FED lowers rates bc we will be in a recession, and it is trying to make private money creation cheaper to pump the economy. Which of the two will occur first, I could not tell you. However, it is important to keep a close eye on this chart in the months ahead. Click like, follow, subscribe.
FRED:FEDFUNDSShort
by RealMacro
3
UTF up from here to 27.23ishMy dowsing suggested I ask for a stock from a screener I use. This list has many thousands of tickers & it's always interesting what I get. This was neat because I asked what price I'm looking for BEFORE looking at the stock & the pendulum went to $26-27. So when I found it trading under $25 if felt like some validation. There was a mention of a spike down & reversal up. Idk if that means this morning it already happened, or is yet to, but I'm pretty confident we hit the target, which is $27.23. It shouldn't go under $24 & I asked what date we meet the target by and got March 28th. There's no options on this fyi. We'll see how it shakes out!
NLong
by JenRz
Long at 131.61 for a quick flipNothing special about this trade except that it was one of only 6 large cap stocks that registered as a buy for me today and was the best of the bunch, technically, imo. Historically, the returns here are only about 20% better than an average market return per day, but using this trading technique, it has never lost money - 1027 wins, 0 losses (real and backtested) going all the way back to January of 1968. Having been through everything that 50+ year trading history threw at it and coming out perfect, I'm comfortable making this trade now. Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position periodically at the close on and I will likely use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit, though I have been playing around with a new exit strategy, so FPC may or may not be used - I'll have to see how things play out. As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
NYSE:KMBLong
by redwingcoach
5
$CVNA - 260CallHi all, My ai pinged me suggesting a 260 Call expiring around the 6'th of June on CVNA. This model's performance is not terrible, but i;m not comfortable listening to my own AI which is suggesting to buy a call literally just before earnings. 2.6 Sharpe isn't bad but it's no 3.6 meaning it's not a guaranteed win. imgur.com I am more keen on seeing whether the AI right or wrong and letting you guys know about the trade. Now my AI also suggests that other CAR sector related stocks may experience moves as well, maybe more than CVNA itself. Unfortunately i do not know which ones those are. I just know the CAR sector good.
NYSE:CVNALong
by leenixusu
5
Tesla - Don't get confused right here!Tesla - NASDAQ:TSLA - is about to create the bullish reversal: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) 2025 has been a rough year for Tesla so far. With a drop of about -50%, Tesla is clearly breaking the average retail trader. But the underlying trend is still quite bullish and if position strategy, risk execution and mindset control are all mastered, Tesla is a quite rewarding stock. Levels to watch: $275, $400 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by basictradingtv
5
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Trend Reversal + AI Compute DemandOverview Summary Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD is testing a structurally critical support zone following a prolonged correction from all-time highs. While short-term price action reflects macro uncertainty, long-term positioning across AI, data centers, and gaming chips sets AMD up for an asymmetric risk/reward play—especially as we head into a new semiconductor investment super-cycle. Key Drivers of the Thesis Fundamentals & Financial Positioning Revenue: $22.7B (TTM), down YoY due to cyclical headwinds in PC and gaming sectors. Gross Margin: Healthy at 47%, reflecting resilience in high-margin data center and embedded segments. Cash & Liquidity: $5.8B in cash with manageable debt, giving AMD dry powder to continue R\&D and M\&A without over-leveraging. Valuation: P/E 39, slightly elevated, but forward P/E compresses into the 20s on 2025 estimates as AI revenue kicks in. Guidance: Focused on high-growth verticals—AI, HPC (high-performance computing), and adaptive SoCs. Industry & Competitive Landscape Tailwinds: Global AI boom, sovereign chip independence (U.S. Chips Act), hyper-scaled demand. Competition: NVIDIA dominates GPU/AI inference, but AMD’s MI300X (AI accelerator) has gained traction with Microsoft and Meta. Moat: Advanced chip architecture (Zen 5 roadmap), Xilinx acquisition, and new FPGA/AI product launches. Risk: Intel rebounds, and Arm-based chip innovation is catching up. However, AMD remains competitively priced and positioned between Intel (volume) and NVIDIA (premium AI). Trade Setup (If Support Holds) Entry Zone: $90.00–$100.00 Target 1: $150.00 Target 2: $220.00 Invalidation: Weekly Close Below $80.00 Technical Analysis (Refer to Chart) Long-Term Channel: AMD is currently bouncing from the lower trend-line of a multi-year ascending channel. Demand Zones: Strong confluence around $80–$94 (historical support + psychological + FVG fill zone). Volume Profile: Heavy accumulation volume around $90–100—likely smart money positioning. Forecast Path: If this zone holds, AMD could revisit prior highs ($150), with $180–200 as a mid-term target and long-term possibility towards $250+ with broader tech rally continuation. Market Sentiment & Macro Factors U.S. Interest Rates: Peak rate environment could signal risk-on appetite ahead, benefitting tech. AI Capital Flows: Institutional investors are rotating into semiconductor enablers of AI infrastructure—AMD is a clear beneficiary. Global Supply Chain Stability: Any future China–Taiwan tensions could raise AMD’s premium due to U.S.-based diversification. Risks & Challenges to Monitor AI revenue upside may already be partially priced in short term. Fierce pricing pressure from NVIDIA, Intel’s foundry expansion, and custom silicon from Apple/Google. Continued weakness in PC market segment may drag performance despite data center tailwinds. Technical invalidation below $80 would suggest structure weakness or macro risk-off phase. Final Take AMD offers a fundamentally sound, technically discounted, and thematically aligned play for investors looking to gain exposure to AI, HPC, and the broader semiconductor growth thesis. With structurally significant support aligning with longer-term mega trends, this is a forward-thinking asymmetric setup with intelligent risk controls and multi-year upside potential.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by GreenZoneCapital
1
Zarvān Map | XRP/USDT – 1H Field Scenario Update🧠 Zarvān Map | XRP/USDT – 1H Field Scenario Update Layered Entry Logic + Smart Field Readout XRP is currently trading near $2.11, navigating a pivotal structure with 3 potential paths shaped by demand zones, momentum flow, and hybrid field behavior. Using Zarvān's internal indicators, we map out clear reactive steps for both short-term and mid-term positioning. 🔹 Bullish Scenario A breakout above the $2.20 zone may trigger acceleration toward: $2.43 → minor structural gap $2.80 → prior high zone $3.20 – $3.95 → major liquidity vacuum (macro target) Confirmation requires a strong close + retest above 2.20. 🔸 Reload Scenario If rejected below $2.20, price may revisit $1.90–$1.98 demand zone. A reaction there (with divergence/absorption) could provide a cleaner long with better R:R toward upper targets. 🔻 Breakdown Scenario Losing $1.90 invalidates the setup short-term. Watch for fakeouts or news-driven flushes — low probability but must be tracked. 📊 Strategy Table Path Entry Zone Target(s) Condition Long > 2.20 2.43 → 2.80 → 3.95 Break & hold Reload 1.90–1.98 2.43+ Reversal setup from demand Avoid Below 1.90 ⚠️ Wait for re-setup 🧬 System Note – Zarvān Field Tools This chart is powered by Zarvān Hybrid Indicators, including: BiasCombo (Composite Field Sentiment) Adaptive Pulse & Fracture Layer RSI & MACD with internal reversal logic These indicators are private-use only and not publicly visible. 💬 Share your take — which zone do you trust most for long exposure?
Long
by abtinpezhman
EUR/USD: Current Trend Analysis & Trading AdviceThe EUR/USD pair remains confined to familiar levels, lacking directional momentum, yet with a well - limited bearish potential. In the daily chart, the pair seesaws around a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), showing sellers and buyers are battling for direction. At the same time, the Momentum indicator turned marginally lower at around its 100 line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads nowhere at around 58, in line with the limited intraday movements. In the near - term and according to the 4 - hour chart, the EUR/USD pair is neutral. A flat 100 SMA provides resistance at around 1.1370, while the 20 and 200 SMAs remain below the current level with no clear directional strength. At the same time, technical indicators stand pat just above their midlines, in line with the ongoing range - trading. EUR/USD sell@1.1350-1.1360 tp:1.1320-1.1280 Investment itself is not risky; it is only when investment is out of control that risks occur. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment.
Short
by VolatilityWise
Layer/Usdt LONGI entered a position in LAYER at 1.40 USDT. This level was previously a strong support zone, both horizontally and within the ascending channel, making it a technically sound entry point. My target is a potential move back to the 2.50 – 3.00 USDT range. However, I’m prioritizing risk management. That’s why I’ve set my stop-loss at 1.20 USDT, which is just below a key support level. If the price breaks below this, it could indicate further downside, so I’m prepared to exit the position. My strategy: Entry: 1.40 USDT Target: 2.50 – 3.00 USDT Stop-Loss: 1.20 USDT Based on my technical analysis, there is a high probability of a rebound from this area. But in case of further breakdown, I’ll manage my risk accordingly with this plan.
Long
by enesay9881
SNP500/EquitiesThe current macroeconomic backdrop, shaped by the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, highlights growing concerns over economic risks, particularly stemming from trade tensions and inflationary pressures triggered by tariffs. Despite a strong April jobs report, the Fed is signaling increased caution, warning that the risks of both higher inflation and higher unemployment have risen. Treasury yields are reflecting this shift in sentiment, with the 2-year yield falling to 3.76% and the 10-year yield at 4.29%, suggesting that markets are beginning to price in a slower growth environment and potential future rate cuts. In this environment, real estate investments are proving resilient. The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) is up +3.14% year-to-date, outperforming broader equity indices such as the S&P 500 (SPX), down –4.69%, and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), down –6.19%. Real estate typically benefits from a stable or declining interest rate environment, as lower yields reduce the discount rate applied to property cash flows and enhance the appeal of steady income-generating assets like REITs. Additionally, real estate assets—especially in sectors like multi-family housing and industrial logistics—can provide some inflation protection through lease repricing and consistent demand. By contrast, the broader equity markets are showing signs of strain. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have delivered negative returns year-to-date, reflecting investor unease around earnings growth, margin pressures from tariffs, and general macroeconomic uncertainty. Defensive equity sectors are faring better—Financials (XLF) are up +2.75%, and Consumer Staples and Health Care are showing modest gains. Technology and cyclical sectors such as Materials (XLB –0.39%) and Energy (XLE –0.30%) are underperforming, indicating a rotation into safer assets. The VIX (Volatility Index) at 24.72 confirms heightened risk aversion among investors. Given this backdrop, a prudent portfolio strategy for the next three to six months would prioritize capital preservation, income generation, and inflation protection. A recommended tactical allocation might include 30–35% in real estate, leveraging XLRE and potentially private REITs in stable segments. Allocating 25–30% to defensive equity sectors, such as financials and consumer staples, can provide exposure to more stable earnings. Exposure to high-beta sectors like technology should be limited to 10–15%, given continued volatility and valuation risks. Holding 20–25% in cash or short-term Treasuries provides flexibility, especially with yields still elevated, while a 5–10% allocation to alternatives such as gold (XAUUSD +28.90% YTD) or inflation-protected securities like TIPs adds a useful macro hedge. Looking forward, real estate is likely to remain attractive if the Fed maintains a dovish tilt or initiates rate cuts later in the year. Sectors with strong fundamentals, such as housing and logistics, should continue to perform well. Equities, however, are expected to remain volatile, with upside capped unless trade uncertainty is resolved or corporate earnings show resilience. Investors should favor value-oriented, dividend-paying stocks with lower volatility. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar may soften gradually as rate expectations fall and inflation hedges rise in importance, further supporting real asset classes.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Buranku
XAUUSDThe Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%–4.50% for the third consecutive meeting underscores a cautious stance in light of rising economic uncertainties. While the U.S. labor market remains strong—evidenced by robust non-farm payroll figures in April—the Fed has pivoted its tone. Policymakers now highlight increasing risks of both higher inflation and higher unemployment, largely driven by the Trump administration’s expansive tariff threats. As stated by the FOMC, “uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further.” This warning reflects not only concern over direct cost pressures from tariffs but also the broader economic impact on business investment and consumer confidence. The gold market (XAUUSD) is currently reflecting investor anxiety and hedging behavior. With a current price of $3,382.91, despite a slight daily decline of –$46.00 (–1.3%), gold is up a remarkable +28.90% year-to-date, making it the best-performing major asset shown in the dashboard. This performance aligns with expectations during periods of rising inflation concerns and geopolitical tension, both of which are now compounded by uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. The Federal Reserve’s dovish shift—combined with falling real interest rates and weaker equity sentiment—continues to support the appeal of gold as a hedge. Unless we see an unexpected acceleration in Fed tightening or a dramatic de-escalation in global risks, gold is likely to remain elevated and could potentially test new highs over the coming months, especially if inflation prints come in above expectations. Conversely, the U.S. equity market—particularly the S&P 500 (SPX)—is showing signs of stress. As of now, the S&P 500 sits at 5,605.67, down –13.41 points (–0.2%) on the day, and –4.69% year-to-date. The broader equity picture reflects caution, with high-growth sectors like Technology (XLK –0.12%) and Communications (XLC –0.52%) dragging down the Nasdaq 100, which is down –6.19% YTD. Investors appear to be rotating into more defensive sectors, such as Real Estate (XLRE +3.14%) and Financials (XLF +2.75%), which tend to perform better when interest rates stabilize and volatility rises. With the Volatility Index (VIX) at 24.72, market participants are bracing for more turbulence ahead. Given the Fed’s policy pause and corporate earnings risks tied to unpredictable tariff policies, we are likely to see continued choppiness in the equity markets. The S&P 500 may struggle to gain significant traction unless there is a material policy shift or strong upside surprises in earnings. The U.S. dollar is showing short-term resilience but is under structural pressure. The USD/JPY pair is trading at 143.7235, up +1.3215 (+0.9%), indicating near-term strength. However, the broader context points to a potential weakening trend. U.S. Treasury yields are declining—2-year at 3.76%, 10-year at 4.292%, and 30-year at 4.785%—which signals markets are pricing in slower growth and a higher probability of rate cuts later in the year. The Fed’s dovish tone and concerns about future inflation have also led to increased demand for inflation-protected assets, as shown by the modest gain in TIPs (TIP ETF at 109.33, +0.05%). Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is slipping against other major currencies like the euro (EUR/USD at 1.1326, –0.0044) and the pound (GBP/USD at 1.3306, –0.0062). These dynamics suggest that the dollar may face renewed weakness over the next several months, particularly if the Fed signals a pivot to rate cuts or if geopolitical tensions ease, diminishing safe-haven demand. Market sentiment overall remains fragile. The commodity space is softening, with Crude Oil (CL1) down –1.6% to $81.02, and Brent Crude (CO1) off –1.5% to $61.13, reflecting cooling global demand expectations. On the equity factors front, growth stocks are underperforming across all size classes, while value and core stocks are faring better—a classic defensive setup as investors prepare for a lower-growth regime. Outlook for the Next Few Months: Looking ahead, we can expect gold to remain well-supported, potentially pushing toward new highs if inflation data accelerates or geopolitical risks persist. Its performance will also benefit from any further softening in the dollar or Fed rate cut signals. For the S&P 500, the outlook is neutral to bearish in the near term. Without clear resolution on trade policy or a shift in Fed strategy, earnings uncertainty and cautious sentiment are likely to weigh on equity valuations. Defensive sectors may outperform, while growth sectors could continue to lag. As for the U.S. dollar, while it could see short-term support from relatively higher yields compared to Europe or Japan, the broader direction over the coming months is likely to tilt downward, especially if the Fed becomes more openly accommodative.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Buranku
CX | Long | Triangle Breakout & Value Entry | (May 2025)CX | Long | Watching for Triangle Breakout & Value Entry | (May 2025) 1️⃣ Short Insight Summary: CX has been stuck in a long-term consolidation pattern since 2008, but now it’s approaching a key decision point. We’re seeing signs of potential breakout movement, especially as price compresses within a triangle formation. 2️⃣ Trade Parameters: Bias: Long Entry: Watching for retracement into $5.95–$5.75 zone (near value area high) Stop Loss: $5.33 TP1: $6.70 TP2: $7.91 Final TP: $9.00 3️⃣ Key Notes: ✅ Daily and 4H charts show upward momentum, but 1H and 2H charts suggest short-term selling pressure (money flowing out). ✅ Weekly timeframe shows money inflow—bullish signal. ❌ Monthly chart shows money flowing out, signaling caution for long-term holders. 📉 Fundamentals show mixed signals: strong free cash flow ($1.6B), low P/E (6.3), and solid market position—but future EPS forecasts are trending lower, which could weigh on sentiment. 🏗️ CX operates globally in construction materials (cement, concrete, aggregates) with exposure across U.S., Mexico, Europe, and Asia. 4️⃣ Optional Follow-up Note: This setup is worth watching closely. If the triangle breaks upward with volume, I’ll update the post and potentially scale into the trade further. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. Disclaimer: This is not a financial advise. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
NYSE:CXLong
by Risk_Adj_Return