Beyond Technical Analysis
IBEX 35: Strengthening on the International StageBy Ion Jáuregui – Senior Analyst, ActivTrades
Today the Ibex 35 kicked off with strength, surpassing 12,882 points within its first trading hour and leaving behind yesterday’s close of 12,847.40. It was a Friday session marked by the ongoing tension between the U.S. executive branch and the Federal Reserve, which dragged Wall Street lower and spread caution among European investors. Despite this adverse backdrop, the Spanish benchmark held up relatively well, underscoring why so many regard it as one of the strongest markets on the global stage. Meanwhile, the Euro Stoxx 50® dipped 0.40% to 4,915.74 after brushing the upward trendline drawn from the 2020 and 2022 lows around 4,545 points.
During the week of April 14–18, the Ibex 35 moved forcefully higher. It opened at 12,609.80 and, after two days of gains exceeding 2%, closed the week at 12,918.00—posting a roughly 2.5% advance. That momentum persisted even as the second half of the week cooled off, highlighting the index’s capacity to rebound amid neutral or slightly negative news.
Technical Analysis
The index continues to press higher today. Its RSI sits in neutral territory at 59%, having shed overbought readings from Friday’s session and retraced just above the 12,701 support level. The trading range borne of U.S. tariff headlines seems to be in the rearview mirror, and the Ibex now appears intent on consolidating around current prices before challenging its highs again. On the one-hour chart, the Point of Control lies at 13,275—right in the middle of the prior 13,025–13,495 range. Meanwhile, moving average crossovers are flashing bullish signals: the 200 period average is about to cross above the 100 period, and the 50 period remains firmly sloped upward. With scarcely any new macroeconomic catalysts on the immediate horizon, last week’s momentum may well carry the index back toward its previous trading zone.
With few fresh data points ahead, it’s likely that inertia from last week will extend gains toward earlier price levels. At ActivTrades, we advise waiting for a clean consolidation in the 12,000–12,180 area before adding new positions—using that opportunity to place protective stops below 11,589 on the Ibex and 4,545 on the Euro Stoxx. This approach limits risk while providing clear visibility, in a market environment that favors highly liquid, dividend paying stocks typically leading the recovery phases.
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Bitcoin price increaseAfter the tensions between traders in the United States and the strong price fluctuations in the dollar and other stocks, and after the 3-month increase in gold, this time it will be the turn of digital currencies to increase again and there are signs of their increase in the market. For Bitcoin, two increase targets can be considered: $110,000 - $120,000.
Sasha Charkhchian
The Day Ahead Tuesday 22 April - Macro Data to Watch
US
Philadelphia Fed (non-manufacturing) – Insight into regional services sector strength.
Richmond Fed Index – Regional manufacturing pulse; can affect rate expectations.
Business Conditions – Sentiment read, relevant for short-term economic momentum.
Eurozone
Consumer Confidence (April) – A leading indicator for consumer spending.
Debt-to-GDP (2024) – Helps assess fiscal sustainability/risk premium.
Canada
March Industrial Product Price Index & Raw Materials Price Index – Key inflation inputs, may influence BoC policy outlook.
Central Bank Speakers (Potential Market Movers)
Fed
Jefferson, Kashkari, Harker – Watch for any guidance on rate cuts/timing.
ECB
Knot speaks; ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters also out – Insight into inflation/monetary policy expectations.
Earnings (Market Impact: High)
Big Names Reporting:
Tesla – Retail/institutional focus; moves broad market + sentiment.
SAP – Tech/enterprise software sector read.
GE, RTX, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman – Defense/industrial tone-setters.
Verizon, Intuitive Surgical, Danaher, Chubb – Broad sector coverage; healthcare, telecom, insurance.
Elevance Health, MSCI, Moody's, Equifax – Key reads on health insurers, financials, and credit conditions.
Enphase Energy, EQT, Baker Hughes – Energy sector sentiment, especially in renewables/oil services.
US Treasury Auctions
2-Year Note Auction – Short-end yield focus; critical for curve shape and rate expectations.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Gold Reaction Zones for April 22XAUUSD – Intraday Reaction Zones
Smart Money Concepts | 1H + 4H Structure
NY Session Focus
🔻 SELL ZONES (Above Price)
1️⃣ 3500 – 3503
🔸 Psychological round number
🔸 Inefficiency + liquidity magnet
🔸 Watch for reversal wick or M15 CHoCH
2️⃣ 3472 – 3478
🔸 1H supply + previous rejection wick
🔸 Already caused a strong move down
🔸 Valid for short on second test with confirmation
3️⃣ 3564 – 3568
🔸 4H unmitigated supply zone
🔸 High-impact reversal area
🔸 Only in play if NY breaks out with strength
🟢 BUY ZONES (Below Price)
1️⃣ 3440 – 3447 (Currently in play)
🔹 1H OB + imbalance combo
🔹 First support zone for potential bullish reaction
🔹 Watch for rejection or confirmation before entry
2️⃣ 3410 – 3416
🔹 BOS origin zone on 1H
🔹 Imbalance + clean structural base
🔹 Stronger foundation for longs if 3440 breaks
3️⃣ 3350 – 3362
🔹 4H demand
🔹 Multiple rejections and accumulation in past sessions
🔹 Valid for bounce if deeper selloff continues
🧠 Market Context
Price broke below 1H HL at 3462 → currently pulling back
HTF structure still bullish, but intraday flow is bearish
NY may hunt liquidity into lower zones before reversal
Confirmation is key — no blind entries
📌 Important Notice!!!
The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action.
I'm selling EURUSDI think we will see a retracement before we continue higher.
We trade what we see, not what we think. All target to the upside has been met, let's grab liquidity before continuing up
It has a potential of selling to 1.089 level but let's take it one step at a time.
TP 1 at 1.135
TP 2 at 1.12
Follow me as my trades are market orders so you'll see them on time and enter on time
Mara Like a Phoenix Reborn #USA Gann's Law of Vibration showing us what's to come.
The vibration has reset and new highs will be made.
On balance volume about to go parabolic.
Implied Volatility follows.
Time to make money.
"Time is the most important factor in determining market movements and by studying the past records of the averages or individual stocks you will be able to prove for yourself that history does repeat and that by knowing the past you can tell the future. There is a definite relation between time and price. Now, by a study of the time periods and time cycles you will learn why tops and bottoms are found at certain times and why resistance levels are so strong at certain times and bottoms and tops hold around them. The most money is made when fast moves and extreme fluctuations occur at the end of major cycles.” - W.D. Gann
EURCAD Short 4/21/2025EUR/CAD Short Setup – Stop Run and Weekly Reversal in Play
We started the week with a burst of bullish activity on EUR/CAD — but it’s looking more like a liquidity grab than genuine strength.
Sunday Open: Within 12 hours of the weekly open (during thin liquidity), price broke last week’s high — a level that held all of last week — hinting at a possible engineered stop run.
Backdrop: The ECB’s 25bps rate cut last Thursday (April 17) continues to pressure the euro fundamentally. This morning's move likely reflects faux volume aimed at clearing out late sellers before a reversal.
Session Structure:
Asia: Extended the highs slightly.
London: Delivered a sharp drive up, breaking the weekly high mid-session — likely the final liquidity tap before reversing.
Now: London has closed. We’re heading into New York with momentum slowing and key reversal patterns forming.
Technical Confluence:
15-Min Chart: Clear double top.
1H Chart: Inside bar fakeout forming — breakout failed, candle about to close bearish.
These formations align with a classic market maker reversal model following a stop raid.
Bias: Bearish.
Targeting a move down to 1.53319 — a clean demand zone and structural target.
Stops above 1.6000 would be ideal for institutions to aim at, but I don’t believe we’ll reach that high. The signs of exhaustion are already visible.
Macro View: With euro weakness post-ECB and potential dollar strength building this week (especially with Trump pressuring global trade again), this may be the start of a decisive trend move to the downside.
Let’s see how New York handles this. If momentum confirms, we may be at the very beginning of a significant shift.
BTCUSD 4/22/2025Come Tap into the mind of SnipeGoat, as he gives you an update of current Price Action based on his previous analysis & call outs. You've NEVER seen transparency like this. You've NEVER seen Precision like this.
_SnipeGoat_
_TheeCandleReadingGURU_
#PriceAction #MarketStructure #TechnicalAnalysis #Bearish #Bullish #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTCUSD #Forex #NakedChartReader #ZEROindicators #PreciseLevels #ProperTiming #PerfectDirection #ScalpingTrader #IntradayTrader #DayTrader #SwingTrader #PositionalTrader #HighLevelTrader #MambaMentality #GodMode #UltraInstinct #TheeBibleStrategy
Where is the liquidity ?BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:BTC COINBASE:BTCEUR
Here I present you the chart that shows the dominance of CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D and the major stablecoins CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D and CRYPTOCAP:USDC.D is in the crypto market. These assets now hold 68% of the total market cap. This means :
" For every $1 coming into crypto, about $0.60 goes into BTC and stablecoins, but only $0.40 goes into thousands of other cryptos."
Will this dominance decrease?
At some point, yes. The fall of BTC and stablecoin domination together with new money coming into the market is often the precursor for an Altseason. If fresh money do not flow into the market, altseason may be underwhelming as funds would merely rotate between BTC and stablecoins in addition to other assets, rather than growing the market.
But why does BTC tend to hold relatively well during market corrections while altcoins face harsh drops?
This is a function of market structure and liquidity distribution, something you can read about in my article "Portfolio Stability" , a must read to better your understanding of crypto market dynamics.
DXY TO RETRACE, BUYMy yearly target for DXY has been smashed in April, not even 6 months in, lol. The move was fast and brutal, many were left out.
Now I think we will see some cool off, a retracement or a range, dont hold trades as the market may range after such big move and I don't like holding a ranging market.
Learn to let your profit run, stop chasing few pips. Dxy fell thousands pips and you caught only 100 pips due to day trading, it doesn't make sense. Learn to see the bigger picture
My TP 1 is 99
TP 2 = 101.3
Enjoy
Follow me as my trades are market order, so you'll see it on time and enter at premium
XAUUSD Weekly IdeaGold Prices Surge Amid Inflation Concerns and Increased Tariffs
- Gold prices have formed new ATH. The driving forces behind this ascent include escalating inflation concerns and intensified trade tensions, notably the U.S. administration’s recent increase of tariffs on Chinese imports from 104% to 125%.
- These heightened tariffs have amplified fears of rising consumer prices, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold as a traditional hedge against inflation. Complicating the economic landscape, the Federal Reserve faces the delicate task of balancing surging inflation with slowing economic growth, making near-term interest rate cuts increasingly uncertain.
Technical standpoint
A decisive move beyond the $3,167.84 peak could signal further upside targeting $3400 potential, while a drop below this moving average might prompt a reassessment of the bullish outlook.
CTMI Strategy Spotting the Move Early – DG ExampleCTMI Strategy – Clean Entry. Strong Setup.
Another clear Buy Signal with 100% alignment, solid trend score, and a forecast target mapped out.
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GBP/USD London Session
📌 Timeframe:1H
📌 Bias: Bullish
📌 Key Levels:
- Sell-side Liquidity Target: 1H SIBI at 1.33930
- Bullish Entry Zone: Consequent Encroachment of the imbalance
- Final Target: 1.34300
Market Context & Analysis
- Asian Session Recap: Price opened and traded higher, leaving behind a **1H SIBI**, which was later tapped into.
- Liquidity Sweep: Price made a higher high before pulling back, now targeting sell-side liquidity at 1.33930.
- Bullish Setup Plan: Expecting price to sweep the **sell-side liquidity**, tap into the Consequent Encroachment of the imbalance, and confirm bullish momentum.
- Final Target: Anticipating a rally toward 1.34300, which aligns with a strong resistance level.
Execution Strategy
1. Wait for Price Action Confirmation
- Look for bullish rejection wicks or strong engulfing candles at the Consequent Encroachment zone.
- Avoid early entries; wait for liquidity grab and clear directional shift.
2. Entry & Stop-Loss Considerations
- Ideal Entry: Once bullish confirmations are observed post-liquidity sweep.
- Stop-Loss: Below the recent **liquidity sweep low** to ensure risk protection.
3. Risk-to-Reward & Position Management
- Aim for R:R ratio of at least 1:3, securing partial profits as price approaches 1.34300
- Monitor market conditions and adjust if necessary based on order flow dynamics.
GBP/USD – Breakout Retest Setup🔍 Macro Fundamentals
LEI improving → 86.8 → 90
Exo + LEI score = 78.5 → Healthy trend continuation bias
Exogenous factors: April score 4.5 → positive skew
USD macro weak & dovish, GBP maintaining hawkish tone
📅 Seasonality
📈 GBP bullish from April 24 onward
📉 USD bearish all month
✅ Perfect seasonality window for bullish GBP/USD swing
📊 COT Sentiment
Both GBP and USD = ⚖️ Neutral
→ No positioning pressure, clean technical entry expected
📈 Technical Setup (4H Chart)
Price has broken out of structure, now retesting resistance as support
Structure forming above 1.32312, with a solid upside trend
🔁 Plan: Enter on breakout retest for trend continuation
📥 Entry: 1.32312
⛔ Stop Loss: 1.31581 (below structure)
🎯 Take Profit: Trail or target based on 1.3550–1.3600 zone
🧮 R:R ≈ 1:2+
simple chart of what I seeAnyone who knows me know I like to make simple charts that get to the point. Nothing fancy. Just lots of lines. Anyway, I did a ghost feed so you can get an idea of where I think we go from here. I seriously doubt we see any big changes until earnings. Unless China gets their heads out of the you know what, we will trade like this for a little while. I do feel there is hoppe. If NVIDIA has strong earnings , it could be enough push it to new highs. I would use caution. You will see by my chart we started off with an ascending wedge, moved right into a descending wedge and now I feel we will rinse and repeat. All the while ultimately creating new highs and new lows. Anywhere you see horizontal lines is where I see resistance. And yes, I do still think we could drop below 100 again, so get your buy fingers ready :) Not financial advice! Just an old trader's ideas. If we break above 130 before now and earnings, consider it could be a nice ride up!!
Global Liquidity PL Model of Bitcoin Price We have created a BTC price model based on the observed relationship between Global Liquidity (GL) and price, a power law with power 9.2.
There is an empirical delay of about 85 days, making Global Liquidity a leading indicator of price.
Global Liquidity has been rising steadily in the last few months, and finally, close to the predicted time of the turning BTC price, is following the recent run-up of GL.
We are monitoring this behavior closely to confirm the two time series match over the long term and in major structural features.
The lower panel indicates the winning rate of both time series. This is a useful indicator able to track structural changes independently of scaling (which can be variable when comparing GL and BTC price).
For now, it seems BTC is following closely the recent explosive upward movement of GL.
Will Dry Soil Lift Wheat's Price?Global wheat markets are currently experiencing significant attention as traders and analysts weigh various factors influencing their future price trajectory. Recent activity, particularly in key futures markets, suggests a growing consensus towards potential upward price movements. While numerous elements contribute to the complex dynamics of the grain trade, current indicators highlight specific supply-side concerns as the primary catalyst for this outlook.
A major force behind the anticipation of higher wheat prices stems from challenging agricultural conditions in significant production areas. The United States, a crucial global supplier, faces concerns regarding its winter wheat crop. Persistent dryness across key growing regions is directly impacting crop development and posing a material threat to achieving expected yields. This environmental pressure is viewed by market participants as a fundamental constraint on forthcoming supply.
Further reinforcing these concerns, official assessments of crop health have underscored the severity of the situation. Recent data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture revealed a winter wheat condition rating below both the previous year's level and average analyst expectations. This shortfall in anticipated crop health indicates a less robust supply picture than previously factored into market pricing, thereby increasing the likelihood of price appreciation as supply tightens relative to demand, even as other global factors like shifts in export prices from other regions introduce different market crosscurrents.