FTSE Uk100 is at interesting point, I think next week we could see a nice move. S o far it indicates a bearish move - broken current trendline , retested and rejected 61.8% on fib . I will observe yellow zone for a breakout
Beyond Technical Analysis
Strategy testing //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ //| Daily 10% Profit EA with 5% Max Drawdown | //| Uses RSI, Bollinger Bands, ADX, Fibonacci, Grid System | //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ //@version=5 strategy("Daily 10% Profit EA", overlay=true, default_qty_type=strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value=10)
// Input Parameters RSI_Period = input(14, "RSI Period") ADX_Period = input(14, "ADX Period") BB_Period = input(20, "Bollinger Bands Period") BB_Deviation = input(2, "Bollinger Bands Deviation") MaxDrawdownPercent = input(5, "Max Daily Drawdown (%)") DailyProfitTargetPercent = input(10, "Daily Profit Target (%)")
// Indicators rsi = ta.rsi(close, RSI_Period) adx = ta.adx(ADX_Period) bb_upper = ta.sma(close, BB_Period) + BB_Deviation * ta.stdev(close, BB_Period) bb_lower = ta.sma(close, BB_Period) - BB_Deviation * ta.stdev(close, BB_Period)
// Fibonacci Retracement Calculation highestHigh = ta.highest(high, 50) lowestLow = ta.lowest(low, 50) fibLevel = lowestLow + (highestHigh - lowestLow) * 0.382
// Strategy Conditions longCondition = (rsi < 30 and adx > 20 and close < bb_lower) shortCondition = (rsi > 70 and adx > 20 and close > bb_upper)
// Risk Management initialBalance = strategy.equity currentEquity = strategy.equity DailyProfit = ((currentEquity - initialBalance) / initialBalance) * 100 DailyDrawdown = ((initialBalance - currentEquity) / initialBalance) * 100
dailyLimitReached = (DailyProfit >= DailyProfitTargetPercent or DailyDrawdown >= MaxDrawdownPercent)
if longCondition and not dailyLimitReached strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long) if shortCondition and not dailyLimitReached strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short)
// Close trades when daily limits are reached if dailyLimitReached strategy.close_all()
DAX 30th Marz 2025 - Recovering but not really! 20% Loss ahead!
The German DAX did an impressive rally during the last weeks. The Index has less losses than the SPX.
But- in the past, the DAX was never able, to hold his relative advantage to main indexes.
Technically side, the 3 Week Chart shows a special situation in RSI and Slow Stochastic, with predictable losses in the past.
All in all: Short recovery even with new highs possible, bu
t expect the Dax within the next 6 months much lower - price area around 17000 EUR:
3/30 $RXRXAccum, how long will it take? Funnymentals will determine if/when this will take off. Something something great stonk, moreover better accum pattern
3/30 ALEXLABR Test likely, need to see if we get an accu/distro before determining next R level(S is given)
"ETH/USD: Breakout Incoming? Buy Signal from Falling Wedge!"It illustrates a downward trend with a falling wedge pattern, which is a bullish reversal pattern.
Key Observations:
Falling Wedge Pattern:
The price has been trading within a downward-sloping channel.
The wedge pattern suggests a potential breakout to the upside.
Breakout Opportunity:
The price is currently near the lower boundary of the wedge, suggesting a potential buying opportunity.
A buy signal is indicated at a key support level.
Target Price:
The chart has a target zone around $2,531 – $2,562, which suggests an expected upward move.
Technical Indicators:
The price is currently around $1,815, indicating a possible bottom formation.
A bullish move from this level is expected.
Trading Idea:
Entry: Buy near the current price ($1,815).
Target: $2,531 – $2,562.
Stop-Loss: Below $1,723 for risk management.
This analysis suggests a bullish reversal with a potential breakout from the falling wedge. However, traders should confirm with volume and other indicators before entering a trade.
EUR/GBP Bullish Breakout from Falling Wedge – Buy Setup!Introduction
This EUR/GBP 4-hour chart analysis presents a high-probability bullish trading setup based on a falling wedge breakout. A falling wedge is a reliable bullish reversal pattern, signaling that selling pressure is fading, and buyers are regaining control. The price has now broken out of the wedge, confirming potential upside momentum.
This setup provides a well-defined entry, stop-loss, and target level, allowing traders to capitalize on the bullish breakout while maintaining a proper risk management strategy.
1. Chart Pattern: Falling Wedge (Bullish Reversal)
The primary pattern on the chart is a falling wedge, which is a bullish reversal pattern that forms after a downtrend. It is characterized by converging downward-sloping trendlines, indicating that sellers are gradually losing momentum.
🔹 Key Characteristics of the Falling Wedge Pattern:
Lower highs & lower lows within a narrowing price range.
Decreasing selling pressure, indicating a potential shift in trend.
A bullish breakout above the upper trendline confirms a reversal.
Typically followed by a strong price surge, aiming for previous resistance levels.
The price action confirms this pattern as it broke above the wedge's upper boundary, signaling the start of a bullish trend.
2. Key Technical Levels & Market Structure
🔹 Resistance Level (Target) – 0.84183
This level marks a previous strong resistance zone, where the price faced rejection multiple times.
It serves as the primary profit-taking area for this setup.
A successful breakout and close above this level could lead to further upside movement.
🔹 Support Level – 0.83154
This is the major demand zone where price previously bounced.
Strong buying pressure emerged at this level, leading to the recent breakout.
It serves as an important level to define risk and set stop-loss orders.
🔹 Stop-Loss Placement – Below 0.83154
A stop-loss is placed slightly below the support zone, ensuring a logical exit if the market reverses.
This prevents unnecessary losses while allowing room for normal price fluctuations.
🔹 Entry Point Consideration
Ideal entry: Around 0.83700, just after the breakout confirmation.
Confirmation: A strong bullish candle closing above the wedge.
3. Trade Execution Plan: Long Setup
📌 Trade Idea – Bullish Setup
📈 Buy Entry: 0.83600 – 0.83700 (After wedge breakout)
🎯 Target: 0.84183 (Major resistance level)
❌ Stop-Loss: 0.83154 (Below support level)
🔄 Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR): ~1:1
📊 Risk Management Strategy
Trade with discipline: Never risk more than 1-2% of your capital per trade.
Adjust position size: Based on risk tolerance and account balance.
Use trailing stops: To secure profits if price continues upward.
4. Market Sentiment & Price Action Analysis
Prior Uptrend: The price previously had a strong bullish rally, indicating overall bullish strength.
Corrective Move: The market entered a falling wedge correction, allowing for a healthy pullback before resuming the trend.
Breakout Confirmation: The breakout above the wedge's upper trendline confirms bullish momentum.
📊 Factors Supporting a Bullish Move:
✅ Breakout confirmation above the wedge pattern.
✅ Higher buying volume supporting the move.
✅ Support level holds strong, preventing further downside.
5. Trading Psychology & Risk Considerations
⚠️ Key Considerations Before Entering the Trade:
✔ Wait for confirmation – Ensure a strong breakout candle before entering.
✔ Avoid chasing the price – Enter at a reasonable pullback level post-breakout.
✔ Monitor economic events – Watch for news that could impact EUR/GBP volatility.
✔ Follow a strict risk-reward ratio – Stick to your predefined stop-loss and target.
6. Conclusion – Bullish Outlook
This falling wedge breakout on EUR/GBP suggests a bullish reversal, offering a high-probability long trade setup. The price is expected to move towards the 0.84183 resistance level, with 0.83154 as the key stop-loss level.
✅ Bias: Bullish
🎯 Target: 0.84183
❌ Stop Loss: 0.83154
📊 Risk-to-Reward: ~1:1
📌 TradingView Idea Title & Description
Title:
🚀 EUR/GBP Falling Wedge Breakout – Bullish Move Incoming!
Description:
📈 Bullish breakout confirmed! EUR/GBP has broken out of a falling wedge, signaling a trend reversal. A long position above 0.83600 targets the 0.84183 resistance level with a stop-loss at 0.83154. Watch for strong bullish momentum! 📊💹
💡 Risk Management: Stick to your stop-loss, and don’t chase price action. Manage your trade wisely! 🔥
EUR/USD Double Top Analysis - Bearish Reversal Trade Setup This analysis highlights a Double Top pattern forming on the EUR/USD 4-hour timeframe, which is a classic bearish reversal pattern. The pattern signals a potential shift from a bullish trend to a downtrend, providing traders with a well-defined entry, stop loss, and target levels.
1. Understanding the Double Top Pattern
A Double Top is a trend reversal pattern that forms after an extended uptrend. It consists of two peaks (Top 1 and Top 2) at approximately the same resistance level, followed by a break below the neckline (support level), confirming the pattern.
Pattern Breakdown:
Top 1 & Top 2: These peaks represent failed attempts to break higher, showing strong selling pressure at resistance.
Support (Neckline): The price found support at a key level, where buyers initially stepped in, but eventually, this level was broken, triggering a potential downtrend.
2. Key Levels & Trading Setup
📌 Resistance Level (Bearish Rejection Zone)
The resistance level is marked in the 1.09500 - 1.09600 range.
Price action tested this zone twice (Top 1 & Top 2) but failed to sustain above it.
The repeated rejection indicates that sellers are dominant in this zone.
📌 Support Level (Neckline Breakout Confirmation)
The support level is marked in the 1.07700 - 1.07800 zone.
The price bounced off this area initially, but later broke below it, confirming a bearish move.
The breakout suggests selling momentum is increasing.
3. Trading Strategy – Bearish Setup
🔴 Entry Point (Sell Trigger)
A short trade is confirmed when the price breaks below the neckline (support level) after forming the Double Top.
The breakout confirms seller dominance and signals potential downside movement.
🚨 Stop Loss Placement
Stop Loss is placed slightly above the resistance level at 1.09575.
This ensures protection against false breakouts or price retracements.
🎯 Target (Take Profit Projection)
The price target is calculated based on the height of the Double Top pattern.
Target Level: 1.06639, aligning with the measured move from the resistance to the neckline.
4. Market Outlook & Risk Management
📉 Bearish Scenario (High Probability Move)
✔️ The market structure shows a strong bearish reversal with price failing to break above resistance.
✔️ The confirmed neckline break indicates sellers have taken control.
✔️ If the price continues lower, we can expect a move toward 1.06639.
📈 Bullish Scenario (Invalidation of Trade)
❌ If price closes back above resistance (1.09575), it would invalidate the bearish setup.
❌ This would indicate that buyers are regaining control, and the trade setup should be re-evaluated.
5. Final Thoughts & TradingView Tags
Summary of Trading Setup:
✅ Pattern: Double Top (Bearish Reversal)
✅ Sell Entry: Below the support neckline
✅ Stop Loss: Above 1.09575
✅ Target: 1.06639
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: Favorable
📌 Tags for TradingView Idea:
#EURUSD #DoubleTop #ForexTrading #BearishReversal #SupportResistance #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexSetup #TradingStrategy
JPY/USD 4H Chart Analysis – Head & Shoulders Breakdown & BearishThis detailed technical analysis covers a Head & Shoulders pattern formation on the 4-hour chart of JPY/USD, highlighting a potential bearish reversal setup. The pattern suggests a shift from an uptrend to a downtrend, supported by a trendline breakdown and key resistance & support levels.
1️⃣ Understanding the Chart Pattern: Head & Shoulders (H&S)
📉 What is the Head & Shoulders Pattern?
The Head & Shoulders (H&S) is a classic bearish reversal pattern that appears after a prolonged uptrend, signaling a shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. It consists of three main parts:
Left Shoulder: A peak followed by a retracement.
Head: A higher peak, indicating the last strong bullish attempt.
Right Shoulder: A lower peak, failing to reach the height of the head, showing weakening momentum.
Neckline: A crucial support level that connects the lows of the shoulders. A confirmed break below this neckline is the trigger for a bearish continuation.
📊 Breakdown of the Pattern in This Chart
Left Shoulder (First Peak): The price made a high and then pulled back.
Head (Higher Peak): The market made another higher high but failed to sustain it, indicating exhaustion.
Right Shoulder (Lower Peak): A weaker attempt to push higher, but price failed to break previous highs, confirming the loss of bullish strength.
Neckline Breakout: The dotted trendline shows the ascending support that was eventually broken, confirming bearish momentum.
2️⃣ Key Technical Levels & Market Structure
Understanding the important levels in the market is crucial for setting up an effective trade.
🟧 Resistance Zone (Supply Area)
The resistance level, marked in a beige box, is located around 0.006800.
Price was rejected multiple times from this zone, confirming strong selling pressure.
The head of the pattern was formed in this region before a sharp drop.
🔵 Support Level (Neckline & Demand Area)
The neckline of the Head & Shoulders pattern was acting as support before being broken.
This level was tested multiple times before the final breakdown.
Once broken, it turned into a resistance level, meaning price may pull back to this area before continuing downward.
📉 Trendline Breakout (Bearish Confirmation)
A dashed trendline was previously supporting the uptrend but was broken, confirming the bearish shift in market structure.
This signals a trend reversal and a possible extended move lower.
3️⃣ Trading Strategy & Execution
A well-planned entry, stop loss, and take-profit strategy is essential for managing risk effectively.
📌 Entry Strategy (Short Setup)
Ideal Entry: Look for price to pull back to the neckline (previous support turned resistance).
Confirmation: Watch for bearish candlestick patterns such as:
Bearish engulfing
Pin bar rejection
Shooting star
Lower highs forming near the neckline
A rejection in this zone confirms seller dominance and a high-probability short setup.
📌 Stop Loss Placement
The Stop Loss is placed above the right shoulder at 0.006725.
This ensures protection from false breakouts or unexpected bullish moves.
📌 Profit Target Projection
Take-Profit Target: The projected move suggests a target at 0.006493.
This aligns with previous structural support, increasing its significance.
The measured move for Head & Shoulders suggests that price could fall further after confirmation.
Risk-Reward Ratio
The Risk (Stop Loss): Around 50 pips.
The Reward (Profit Target): Around 180 pips.
This results in a Risk-Reward Ratio of approximately 1:3, making it an attractive trade.
4️⃣ Market Sentiment & Expected Price Movement
📉 Bearish Scenario (Most Likely)
Price retests the neckline but fails to break above it.
Sellers step in, rejecting the resistance level, leading to further downside.
Price targets the next major support at 0.006493, completing the Head & Shoulders move.
📈 Bullish Scenario (Alternative)
If price reclaims the neckline and moves back above 0.006725, the pattern is invalidated.
This could lead to a bullish continuation back toward previous highs.
In this case, traders should cut losses early and avoid forcing a short trade.
5️⃣ Risk Management & Best Practices
1️⃣ Position Sizing:
Risk only 1-2% of your account per trade to maintain long-term profitability.
2️⃣ Confirmation Before Entry:
Wait for price to reject the neckline resistance before entering short.
Avoid entering too early without clear bearish signs.
3️⃣ Monitor News & Fundamentals:
Major economic events, interest rate decisions, or central bank announcements could impact JPY/USD price action.
🔎 Final Conclusion: Bearish Outlook on JPY/USD
The Head & Shoulders breakdown signals a trend reversal from bullish to bearish.
The neckline breakout confirms seller control over the market.
The best short entry is on a pullback to previous support (now resistance).
Target at 0.006493, with a Stop Loss at 0.006725 ensures controlled risk.
📢 Trading Bias: Bearish 📉
💡 Watch for a retest & rejection before entering short.
"Bitcoin Breakout Setup: Potential Rally Towards $94K!"Key Observations:
Support Zone: A crucial support level is marked below the broken channel, indicating a potential area for a price reversal.
Bullish Projection: A breakout above this support level could push BTC higher towards the target price of 94,101.24 USD.
Technical Patterns: The price initially showed a strong downtrend, followed by a recovery forming an ascending channel, and now a potential bullish breakout is expected.
Trading Plan:
Bullish Scenario: If BTC holds above the support level, a strong move upwards toward 94,101.24 USD could be expected.
Bearish Scenario: A failure to hold support could result in further downside toward lower key levels.
Conclusion:
Traders might look for buying opportunities near the support zone with a potential upside target of 94,101.24 USD while managing risk in case of further breakdown.
Would you like to refine this further or add specific indicators? 🚀
XAG/USD Rising Wedge Breakdown To Bearish Trade Setup1. Overview of the Chart
This chart represents Silver (XAG/USD) on the 4-hour timeframe from the OANDA exchange. The price action has formed a Rising Wedge pattern, which is a classic bearish reversal formation. This suggests that a potential breakdown could lead to a significant decline in price.
2. Chart Pattern: Rising Wedge Formation
A Rising Wedge consists of a narrowing price range with higher highs and higher lows, but the slope of the support line (bottom trendline) is steeper than the resistance line (top trendline).
This signals weakening bullish momentum, as buyers are struggling to push the price higher, and sellers are stepping in.
Rising Wedges typically break downward due to the loss of buying strength.
3. Key Technical Levels and Market Structure
A. Resistance Level (Highlighted in Beige Box - $34.50 to $34.80)
This zone has acted as a supply area, where price struggles to break higher.
The price touched this level multiple times, failing to hold above it, which increases the probability of a reversal.
B. Support Level (Highlighted in Blue Box - Around $33.50)
This is a critical short-term support where buyers previously stepped in.
A break below this zone would indicate a confirmation of the wedge breakdown and further downside potential.
C. Stop Loss Level (Marked at $34.80)
Placed above the resistance zone, ensuring protection if price invalidates the pattern and moves higher instead.
This aligns with a logical risk-management strategy to minimize losses if the setup fails.
D. Bearish Breakdown Projection & Target (Marked at $30.46)
The projected target aligns with previous structure support, meaning price may find buyers around this level.
This level is determined by measuring the height of the wedge and projecting it downward from the breakout point.
4. Trading Strategy & Execution Plan
📌 Short (Sell) Trade Setup:
Entry:
Enter a short position once price breaks below the lower trendline of the wedge with strong bearish momentum (e.g., a big red candle closing below support).
A possible retest of the broken support could provide a second entry opportunity.
Stop Loss:
Set at $34.80, above resistance, to ensure the trade is protected against invalidation.
Take Profit (Target):
First target: $32.50 (psychological level and minor support).
Final target: $30.46 (major support and full pattern breakdown projection).
5. Market Psychology & Confirmation Signals
Why This Setup is Bearish?
Price action shows higher highs but with decreasing strength, signaling bull exhaustion.
The Rising Wedge is a well-known bearish structure, and its breakdown typically leads to a strong sell-off.
Volume confirmation: If the breakdown happens with high volume, it strengthens the bearish case.
What to Watch For?
A decisive bearish candle closing below the wedge support confirms the short setup.
If price retests the broken trendline and fails to reclaim it, it provides a second opportunity for entry.
Avoid entering if price consolidates near resistance instead of breaking down.
6. Conclusion: Bearish Bias & Trading Edge
The Rising Wedge formation suggests that Silver is losing bullish momentum and could break down.
Key levels and structure provide a well-defined trade setup, ensuring a good risk-to-reward ratio.
Traders should wait for a confirmed breakdown before entering a short position.
📉 Bearish Outlook – Price likely to drop toward $30.46 target
⚠️ Risk Management is crucial – Stop Loss at $34.80
🎯 Breakdown confirmation needed before entering short positions
Would you like me to refine any part or add more insights? 😊
Setting Support and Resistance Levels on a ChartIdentifying support and resistance levels helps pinpoint potential points of price growth or decline for an asset.
I’ve tried various methods, such as Fibonacci levels and Gann fan, but they tend to be inconsistent—sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. In practice, marking previous highs and lows on the chart and using them as reference points has proven to be much more effective.
If the price confidently breaks through a previous peak, it strongly suggests a trend continuation. However, it’s important to understand that support and resistance levels are not impenetrable barriers but rather guidelines indicating where the price might move. These levels are useful for:
setting stop-losses,
calculating the risk-reward ratio,
providing additional confirmation for entering a position.
When the price approaches a previous high, it’s crucial to observe market reactions. Jumping into a long position expecting a breakout or shorting in anticipation of a pullback isn’t always the best approach. It’s more rational to wait, see how the price interacts with the level, and then make a trading decision.
I mark key levels retrospectively, using data from several decades if available.
Example: Silver
Let’s see how this method works with silver.
In January 1980, the price peaked at $47.97, followed by a global decline.
In May 2011, 30 years later, the price approached $47.97 again, slightly surpassing it but failing to reach $50. After that, a major downtrend began.
This example clearly demonstrates the strength of support and resistance levels—even without considering inflation. And it's not the only one.
How to Apply This Method?
Open a chart of your chosen asset on higher timeframes (1D, 1W, 1M), study historical data, and mark key high and low levels. This will help you better understand the market and make more informed trading decisions.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Breakdown – Rising Wedge Signals Further Drop!1. Chart Overview
This 4-hour BTC/USD chart from BITSTAMP presents a well-defined Rising Wedge pattern, which is a bearish reversal structure typically signaling an upcoming price decline. After a strong upward movement, Bitcoin formed a wedge pattern with higher highs and higher lows converging. This indicates weakening bullish momentum, leading to a confirmed breakdown.
2. Key Technical Elements & Market Structure
A. Rising Wedge Formation (Bearish Pattern)
A rising wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that appears after an uptrend, showing gradually weakening buying pressure.
The chart shows that price action was following an upward sloping support and resistance trendline.
The higher highs and higher lows formed within the wedge indicate a loss of bullish momentum.
Eventually, the price broke below the lower trendline, confirming a bearish breakdown.
B. Breakdown Confirmation
A decisive bearish candle broke below the wedge's lower trendline, confirming the downward move.
After breaking down, the price attempted a small retest of the wedge’s support, which has now turned into resistance.
This successful rejection from the previous support adds to the bearish confirmation.
C. Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance Level ($88,547):
This zone acted as a strong supply area, where previous bullish moves were rejected.
If BTC/USD attempts to recover, this area may provide selling opportunities.
Support Level ($79,193):
This is the next downside target, aligned with previous price consolidation zones.
A break below this support could trigger further selling pressure.
3. Trading Setup & Strategy
A. Short Trade Setup
Entry Point: After BTC/USD confirmed the breakdown of the rising wedge.
Stop Loss: Placed slightly above the $88,547 resistance level to limit risk.
Target Price: A decline towards $79,193, which aligns with the previous major support zone.
B. Bearish Market Sentiment
BTC/USD is currently trading below the wedge, reinforcing bearish bias.
A successful retest of the broken wedge support would validate further downside continuation.
If price remains below the $85,000 level, sellers are likely to maintain control.
4. Market Outlook & Next Price Action
Bearish Scenario
If BTC fails to reclaim the wedge breakdown level, further downside is expected.
A breakdown below $80,000 psychological level could increase selling momentum toward $75,000-$77,000 levels.
Volume analysis suggests that selling pressure is increasing.
Bullish Scenario (Invalidation)
If BTC/USD reclaims the $88,547 resistance and closes above it, the bearish bias could weaken.
Bulls need to break above the rising wedge resistance trendline for a reversal.
5. Conclusion & Trading Plan
The Rising Wedge pattern breakdown confirms a bearish outlook for BTC/USD.
The risk-reward ratio for a short trade is favorable, targeting a move down to $79,193.
Traders should watch for volume confirmation and trend continuation signals before entering.
Key Takeaways
✅ Bearish Bias confirmed after the Rising Wedge breakdown.
✅ Short Position setup with entry, stop loss, and target defined.
✅ Resistance at $88,547 - Failure to break above it strengthens the bearish case.
✅ Target at $79,193 - A strong support area where buyers may step in.
6. Tags for TradingView Post
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #TradingSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoTrading #BearishPattern #RisingWedge #Breakdown #ShortTrade #PriceAction #SupportResistance #MarketAnalysis
Would you like any further refinements or additional insights? 🚀
"Gold (XAU/USD) Approaching 3,110 – Sell Setup in Play?"The price is in an uptrend, making higher highs and higher lows.
A potential reversal zone is identified around $3,110, marked as a possible sell entry.
The chart suggests that after reaching $3,110, the price may decline towards the support zone at $3,010 - $2,999.
Confirmation of the sell trade can be considered if price action forms a bearish structure around resistance.
Key support levels are at $3,010, $2,999, and $2,981, which could act as potential take profit targets for short positions.
Trading Strategy:
Sell Entry: Around $3,110, if resistance holds.
Target: $3,010 - $2,999 zone.
Stop Loss: Above $3,120 to manage risk.
This idea follows technical price action, making it crucial to watch for confirmation signals before executing a trade. 🚀📉
Gold Spot (XAU/USD) Analysis: Bullish Pennant Breakout to Target1. Overview of the Chart
This 4-hour chart of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) presents a bullish pennant pattern, which is a strong continuation formation, indicating that the price is likely to continue its upward trajectory. The price action has followed a clear trend structure, and we can identify key support and resistance levels, breakout points, and potential profit targets.
This analysis provides a comprehensive breakdown of the chart setup, including:
The technical pattern formation
Key support and resistance zones
Trade setup with an ideal entry, stop loss, and profit target
Risk management considerations
Market conditions and external factors to monitor
2. Breakdown of the Chart Pattern: Bullish Pennant Formation
Understanding the Bullish Pennant Pattern
A bullish pennant is a continuation pattern that occurs after a strong upward movement (known as the "flagpole"). The market then consolidates within a small triangular shape, forming the pennant. This consolidation is seen as a temporary pause before the next bullish move.
Key Characteristics of the Pennant in this Chart
Flagpole Formation:
The steep rally before the pennant formed represents a strong bullish impulse, driven by increased buying pressure.
This rapid price increase set the foundation for the pennant pattern.
Consolidation (Pennant Formation):
Price action moved within converging trendlines, forming a symmetrical triangular pattern.
The market temporarily paused, as some traders took profits while others awaited further momentum.
This type of consolidation is common before the price resumes its trend.
Breakout from the Pennant:
The bullish breakout above the upper trendline of the pennant confirms the continuation of the uptrend.
A strong breakout suggests renewed buying interest, likely pushing prices toward the next resistance level.
3. Key Technical Levels on the Chart
A. Resistance Level (Potential Selling Zone)
A critical resistance zone is marked between $3,100 - $3,125, where selling pressure could emerge.
If the price faces rejection in this zone, a temporary retracement could occur before another push higher.
A breakout above this resistance level would further strengthen the bullish case, possibly pushing gold toward the $3,175 - $3,200 range.
B. Support Level (Demand Zone)
The support zone is around $3,025 - $3,017, which is the last significant swing low.
This level represents a strong buying area where traders may look for re-entry on a pullback.
A break below this support could invalidate the bullish setup, signaling a shift in market sentiment.
C. Trendline Support (Dynamic Support)
The dashed black trendline represents an uptrend support.
If price retraces toward this level and holds, it may offer another buying opportunity before resuming its uptrend.
A break below this trendline would be a warning signal, suggesting a weakening of bullish momentum.
4. Trade Setup and Execution Strategy
A. Entry Strategy
The ideal entry point was upon the confirmed breakout above the pennant, around $3,075 - $3,085.
Aggressive traders may have entered at the breakout itself.
Conservative traders may wait for a pullback to retest the breakout zone before entering, ensuring confirmation.
B. Stop Loss Placement (Risk Management)
A stop loss is placed below the support zone at $3,017 to minimize downside risk.
This placement protects against false breakouts or unexpected market reversals.
Keeping a tight stop loss allows for a higher risk-to-reward ratio while maintaining a disciplined approach.
C. Profit Target Projection (Expected Price Movement)
The target price is determined using the measured move approach, where the height of the flagpole is added to the breakout point.
The expected profit target is in the range of $3,175 - $3,200, offering a potential upside of 4.29% from the breakout level.
If price maintains its bullish momentum, further gains could be expected beyond the target zone.
5. Risk Management & Considerations
A. Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR)
This trade setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (RRR).
With an entry near $3,085, a stop loss at $3,017, and a target around $3,175, the trade offers a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 3:1.
This ensures that even if the trade does not succeed, the risk is controlled while allowing significant upside potential.
B. Factors That Could Invalidate the Setup
Failure to sustain the breakout: If price falls back below the pennant, the setup may be invalid.
Break below the support zone ($3,017): This would signal a possible trend reversal.
Weak volume on breakout: A lack of volume could indicate a false breakout, leading to price retracement.
C. Alternative Trade Scenarios
Scenario 1: Retest & Continuation:
If price pulls back to retest the breakout zone ($3,075 - $3,085) and holds, traders can look for another buying opportunity.
Scenario 2: False Breakout & Reversal:
If price falls below the support level ($3,017), traders should exit long positions and re-evaluate market conditions.
6. Market Conditions & External Factors to Monitor
A. Gold’s Correlation with USD & Interest Rates
Stronger USD → Downward Pressure on Gold
Weaker USD → Bullish Gold Trend
Interest rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve play a significant role in gold prices.
B. Economic Events & News Impact
Inflation Reports: Higher inflation often supports gold prices.
Geopolitical Tensions: Political instability can lead to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Stock Market Movements: A weaker stock market can drive capital into gold.
7. Conclusion: Bullish Outlook with Cautious Optimism
Key Takeaways:
✔ Bullish pennant breakout confirmed – strong continuation signal.
✔ Price is above key support & trendline – maintaining bullish structure.
✔ Clear trade plan with entry, stop loss, and target levels.
Trading Plan Summary:
Entry Stop Loss Target Risk-Reward Ratio
$3,075 - $3,085 $3,017 $3,175 - $3,200 3:1
📌 Final Recommendation:
Maintain a bullish bias as long as price holds above the support zone ($3,017).
Watch for volume confirmation to ensure the breakout is valid.
Adjust stop loss or secure profits if price reaches key resistance levels ($3,100 - $3,125).
If you need further clarification or alternative trade scenarios, let me know! 🚀
DXY's bearish shift confirmed First bearish targets outlined on the chart.
- reacting from a Weekly and Daily fvg
- Lower timeframe orderflow has shifted bearish
- I expect lower price from the 4h fvg, first to the equal lows, but ofc we have targets way lower.
OK be safe byyyy
XRP USDXRP/USD Short Position Update
Currently tracking a short setup on XRP/USD, with an entry at 2.17554, stop loss at 2.22573, and a target of 2.10437.
Market Structure: Price rejected a key resistance level, showing signs of exhaustion.
Bearish Confluence: Increased selling pressure with wicks forming at the highs, indicating potential downside continuation.
Risk Perspective: The trade aligns with the broader trend, respecting liquidity zones and key support levels.
Watching for a decisive move toward the TP, with risk management in place should momentum shift. Let’s see how price action unfolds.
#XRP #Crypto #Trading #PriceAction
$BTC for Next week (31st March - 4th April)Given out all the ideas, Will react to the market based on which idea presents itself.
If Yellow line - Its better to stay out of the markets.
With the other wait for MSS (Market Structure Shift) and then take the trade and target the other side of the liquidity.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD , BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Overall I'm neutral on CRYPTOCAP:BTC but SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ and NYSE:ES look bearish to me, and CRYPTOCAP:BTC could follow.
DYDX USDT – 100x soon Yes, it is dull to make predictions, so I will make one.
DYDX USDT
First the last drop of the cycle -50%
Then moon
Something like this
Start $0,5 -> $2,5
Reversal $2,5 -> $1
Extension $1 -> $10
Reversal $10 -> $5
End $5 -> $55
This post is for entertainment only.
The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. Always seek the guidance of a qualified financial advisor before making any financial decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and any investment involves risks. We are not responsible for any actions taken based on this information."
Repeatable and replicableCrypto isn’t sitting out the hunt for the holy grail — it’s loudly asking to be part of my trading journey.
CRUDE - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.3-28.3 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 17th week of the base cycle (28 weeks), second phase. The extreme forecast on March 27 halted the second phase’s upward movement at the 70 resistance level and reversed the trend. This forecast was specifically highlighted for crude at the beginning of the year. A short position has been opened. The next universal extreme forecast is April 7. The next crude-specific extreme forecast is May 5.
