Beyond Technical Analysis
Dollar - Coming back into Consolidation (Short Term Bullish)Been following dollar with videos for over a month and we have been in sync from the highs highlited in the video. We hit our target last week and now looking for a short term bullish run on stops at 94.40s
Give us a follow. Support the channel. Videos are regular
Current BTC Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsThe daily candlestick chart of BTC shows a three - day consecutive bearish retracement, having fallen back to the vicinity of the starting point of the previous pinbar rebound and currently remaining in a recent low - level sideways consolidation zone. However, the 4 - hour trend is pressured by the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, staying within a downward channel and forming a rebound - retracement wave pattern.
For short - term strategies, anticipate a further retracement first. Long positions should be initiated only after the support level is confirmed valid. This retracement represents a necessary consolidation phase before the bullish trend continues, and the current adjustment range does not pose a substantial threat of trend reversal to the overall uptrend. With the core upward trend intact and the direction remaining clear, BTC is expected to resume its upward momentum after a brief consolidation. The operational approach remains to go long on retracements.
BTCUSD
buy@103500-104000
tp:105500-106500
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
Current BTC Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsThe daily candlestick chart of BTC shows a three - day consecutive bearish retracement, having fallen back to the vicinity of the starting point of the previous pinbar rebound and currently remaining in a recent low - level sideways consolidation zone. However, the 4 - hour trend is pressured by the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, staying within a downward channel and forming a rebound - retracement wave pattern.
For short - term strategies, anticipate a further retracement first. Long positions should be initiated only after the support level is confirmed valid. This retracement represents a necessary consolidation phase before the bullish trend continues, and the current adjustment range does not pose a substantial threat of trend reversal to the overall uptrend. With the core upward trend intact and the direction remaining clear, BTC is expected to resume its upward momentum after a brief consolidation. The operational approach remains to go long on retracements.
BTCUSD
buy@103500-104000
tp:105500-106500
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
BTC Accumulated Over 104K💎 BTC PLAN UPDATE (June 16)
NOTABLE BITCOIN (BTC) NEWS:
At least four publicly listed U.S. companies announced plans on Tuesday to significantly increase their cryptocurrency exposure, committing a combined $844 million in new investments. The move reflects a growing corporate appetite for Bitcoin and other digital assets as alternative stores of value and growth opportunities.
The most substantial commitment came from Hong Kong-based ready-meal provider DDC Enterprise Ltd, which disclosed three separate purchase agreements totaling $528 million. The entire sum is earmarked for expanding the company’s Bitcoin reserves.
Technical analysis angle
DAY DAY: Bitcoin is united when uncertainty takes root
Bitcoin price moves widely at about $ 106,300 at the time of writing the article after failing to reach the $ 107,000 resistance threshold on Monday. Its technical structure, as observed from the daily chart below, shows the trend of price increases.
The dynamic convergence indicator (MACD) has maintained the signal to be confirmed on Thursday when the blue MACD line cut under the red signal line. This signal often encourages traders to consider reducing exposure to Bitcoin, thereby creating a dynamic motivation.
The relative power index (RSI) highlights the discount trend when it is sloping, approaching the middle line 50. The movement is below this important neutral level that can catalyze the downtrend, bringing the average exponent dynamic line of 50 days (EMA) at $ 103,064, the 100 -day EMA road at $ 98,783 and the 200 -day EMA road at $ 93,083 to become expected targets.
==> Comments for trend reference. Wishing investors successfully trading
Trading the VIX – Part 2Trading the VIX – Part 2: VIX ETPs and Strategic Applications
In Part 1 of this series, we explored the structure of VIX Futures, focusing on the roll-down effect in a contango VIX futures curve—common in calm market conditions.
In Part 2, we turn our attention to VIX-related Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs)—specifically, the popular and liquid:
• VXX – unleveraged long VIX ETP
• UVXY – leveraged long VIX ETP
• SVXY – inverse VIX ETP
Each of these products is based on a specific VIX futures strategy, the “S&P500 VIX Short Term Futures Index” , which is maintained by S&P, Dow Jones (the “SPDJ-Index”). The Fact Sheet and Methodology can be obtained from the S&P Global website.
What is the SPDJ Index that these ETPs track?
The SPDJ-Index is a strategy index that maintains a rolling long position in the first- and second-month VIX futures to maintain a constant 30-day weighted average maturity.
Key Features of the SPDJ Index:
• Starts with 100% exposure to VX1 (the front-month future) when it’s 30 days from expiration.
• Gradually it rolls from VX1 to VX2 (next-month future) each day to maintain a 30-day average expiration.
• At all times, the index is long either one or both VX1 and VX2, with exposure shifting daily from VX1 to VX2.
• This roll mechanism causes value erosion in contango (normal markets) and gains in backwardation (during volatility spikes).
• Since contango is the dominant market state, the index loses value over time—with occasional short-lived gains during sharp volatility increases.
Importantly, the SPDJ Index does not represent the VIX or any other volatility level, it simply reflects the value of this futures-based rolling strategy.
________________________________________
Breakdown of the ETPs: VXX, UVXY, and SVXY
VXX – Long SPDJ Index (1x)
• Tracks the SPDJ Index directly
• Suffers from the roll-down drag in contango environments.
• Useful only for short-term exposure during expected volatility spikes.
• Timing for long positions is critical
UVXY – Leveraged Long (Currently +1.5x)
• Replicates a strategy that maintains a constant leverage of 1.5 to the SPDJ Index.
• Formerly +2x leverage; reduced in April 2024.
• Highly sensitive to VIX moves; underperforms long term due to both roll-down drag and leverage decay (see below). Timing for long positions is even more important than for the VXX.
SVXY – Inverse (-0.5x)
• Replicates a strategy that maintains a constant exposure of -0.5 to the SPDJ Index.
• Benefits from falling VIX levels as well as from contango in the front part of the VIX futures curve.
• Formerly -1x before the Feb 2018 volatility spike triggered massive losses (XIV, a competing ETP, collapsed at that time).
• Performs well in calm conditions but is vulnerable to sharp volatility spikes.
Leveraged & Inverse ETPs – Important Notes affecting the UVXY and SVXY (without going into details):
• Daily resetting for the replicating strategies to maintain constant exposure factors (different from 1x) are pro-cyclical and can cause compounding errors, specifically in turbulent markets (e.g. Feb 2018).
• The real volatility of the VIX futures itself acts as a drag on returns, independent of the index’s direction.
• Risk management is essential—especially with inverse products like SVXY.
All three of these ETPs track a VIX futures strategy, they are not levered or unlevered versions of the original VIX index. Each of these ETPs benefits from liquid option markets, enhancing the toolkit for volatility trading.
Trading Strategies Using VIX ETPs
Here are several practical approaches to trading these products:
VXX and UVXY
• Best used for short-term trades aiming to capture volatility spikes.
• Options strategies such as zero-cost collars, vertical and calendar spreads can help mitigate the challenge of precise timing.
• Avoid long-term holds due to erosion from roll-down and leverage decay (see historical performance!).
SVXY – The Carry Trade Proxy
• Ideal for profiting from prolonged calm periods and the contango structure.
• Acts like a carry trade, offering a positive drift—but must be paired with robust stop-loss rules or exit strategy to guard against sharp spikes in volatility.
Switching Strategies
• Tactically rotate in/out of SVXY based on short-term volatility indicators.
• One common signal: VIX9D crossing above or below VIX, i.e. long SVXY if VIX9D crosses under VIX, staying long while VIX9D < VIX, closing long SVXY position when VIX9D crosses over VIX. Some traders also use crossovers with VIX3M or the individual expirations of the VIX futures curve to manage entries.
• Switching between SVXY and VXX based on crossover triggers through the VIX futures curve is often advertised, but very hard to get working in practice due to the importance of timing the VXX entry and exit – signals from the VIX curve may not signal VXX entries and exits timely enough.
Term Structure-Based Combinations
• Combine short VXX with long VXZ (an ETP tracking longer-dated VIX futures, balancing the 4th to 7th VIX contracts to achieve a constant expiration of 60days).
• Weighting is determined by the Implied Volatility Term Structure (IVTS), calculated as VIX / VIX3M. This approach adjusts positions based on the shape of the VIX futures curve, indicated by the IVTS. For instance, when the VIX futures curve shifts from contango (where near-term futures are cheaper than longer-term ones) to backwardation (where near-term futures are more expensive), it involves reducing short positions in VXX and increasing long positions in VXZ.
• This approach mimics the spirit of a calendar spread strategy in VIX futures and reflects the “S&P 500 Dynamic VIX Futures Index” , with weightings backed by research from Donninger (2011) and Sinclair (2013) - see performance chart and weighting-matrix enclosed in the introductory chart).
________________________________________
VIX Curves as Market Indicators
Beyond trading, VIX instruments and their term structure are widely used as market sentiment gauges. For instance:
Signs of Market Calm:
• VIX9D < VIX
• VIX < VIX3M
• VIX < VX1
• VX1 < VX2
These relationships imply that short-term volatility is lower than longer-term expectations, indicating near-term calmness in markets, occasionally leading to market complacency.
Traders and institutions use these signals to:
• Adjust positioning in broad market indices
• Determine hedging requirements
• Evaluate suitability of selling naked options
________________________________________
Final Thoughts
VIX ETPs offer a powerful toolkit for traders seeking to profit from or hedge against volatility. But they come with structural decay, leverage dynamics, and curve risk. Timing, strategy, and risk control are key.
DXY bullish here, sell XXXUSD! Do miss this trade plsAs per my previous post on dxy, I'm looking for higher prices now. I dont know the news or war or tariff or rate cut that will push it up. I'm just reporting what I'm seeing on the charts, most times, it doesn't lie. Just when everyone was bullish back in Jan, 2025. I turned bearish, now I'm telling you that we go up slowly or range.
This means you have to sell EURUSD, GBPUSD etc
TP1 @ 98.9
TP2 @ 99.4
Enjoy
Follow me and turn on notification so you'll see my trades on time and enter them on time
Gold May Dip Slightly Before Rebounding📊 Market Dynamics
• Gold is supported by ongoing Israel–Iran tensions and a weaker USD, despite a slight pullback as some investors take profits.
• Citi has revised its short-term outlook for gold to around $3,300, citing potential for deeper correction in the mid-to-long term if investment demand weakens.
📉 Technical Analysis
• Key Resistance: $3,440 – $3,450 (recent highs)
• $3,420 – minor resistance (psychological mid-level)
• Nearest Support: $3,374 – $3,380 (accumulation zone)
•$3,365 – deeper support, in case $3,374 is breached
• EMA 09: Price remains above both EMA09 and EMA20, signaling that short-term bullish momentum is still intact.
• Candle/Volume/Momentum:
RSI (H1): Currently at 46.8, indicating weakening momentum and potential for further pullback unless a rebound occurs soon. This is a neutral zone – neither overbought nor oversold.
📌 Outlook
With RSI below 50 and buying momentum fading, gold may undergo a mild correction toward the $3,374–3,380 zone before a clearer trend emerges. A break below $3,365 would likely trigger a short-term bearish shift. Conversely, if support holds and RSI climbs above 50, a bullish reversal could follow.
💡 Suggested Scalping Setup
• SELL XAU/USD at: $3,440–3,445
🎯 TP: $3,420
❌ SL: $3,451
• BUY XAU/USD at: $3,374–3,380
🎯 TP: $3,395
❌ SL: $3,365
Sterling Flat Before BoE and Fed Policy DecisionsGBP/USD trades near 1.3435 on Wednesday, steadying after a 1.2% drop Tuesday amid rising geopolitical tensions and safe-haven dollar demand.
The pound stays under pressure ahead of today’s UK inflation report and tomorrow’s BoE decision, where rates are expected to remain at 4.25%. Any inflation surprise could shift market expectations.
Ongoing Middle East conflict continues to support the dollar, while traders also await the Fed’s policy announcement later today, which could influence GBP/USD further.
Resistance is at 1.3600, with support around 1.3425.
Why the Sudden Surge in Soybean Oil Prices?Recent sharp increases in Chicago soybean oil prices reflect a confluence of dynamic global and domestic factors. Geopolitical tensions, particularly those impacting crude oil markets, have played a significant role, as evidenced by the recent surge in Brent crude futures following events in the Middle East. This volatility in the broader energy complex directly influences the cost and strategic value of alternative fuels, positioning soybean oil at the forefront of this market shift.
A primary driver of this ascent is the transformative policy initiatives from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The EPA's proposed Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volume requirements for 2026 and 2027 represent an aggressive push towards increased domestic biofuel production. These mandates, significantly exceeding previous targets, aim to bolster U.S. energy security and provide substantial support for American agriculture by boosting demand for soybeans and their derivatives. Key changes, such as the transition to RIN equivalents and reduced RIN costs for imports, are designed to further incentivize domestic consumption and reshape market dynamics.
This policy-driven demand fundamentally reorients the U.S. soybean oil market, causing Chicago Board of Trade futures to increasingly reflect internal American forces rather than global trends. This necessitates a shift in focus for traders towards physical market prices in other regions for international insights. The market has reacted swiftly, with notable increases in futures prices, a surge in open interest, and record trading volumes, indicating strong investor confidence in soybean oil's role within this evolving landscape. Concurrently, the new mandates exert pressure on imported biofuel feedstocks, further solidifying the emphasis on domestic supply.
Ultimately, the rise of soybean oil prices signifies more than just market speculation; it marks a pivotal transformation. It positions soybean oil as an essential commodity within the U.S.'s energy independence strategy, where robust domestic demand, shaped by forward-looking policy, becomes the prevailing force. This transition underscores how intertwined agricultural markets now are with national energy objectives and global geopolitical stability.
Gold June 18, 2025As of today, global financial markets are grappling with synchronized pressures from weak equity sentiment, elevated Treasury yields, central bank guidance, and commodity driven inflation expectations. The backdrop is heavily influenced by geopolitical volatility, a wave of global economic prints (Japan, Eurozone, and the U.S.), and FOMC projections signaling that the Federal Reserve remains cautious despite signs of inflation easing.
In Japan, economic data pointed to a mixed recovery. The Reuters Tankan Index declined from 8 to 6, reflecting some weakness in manufacturing sentiment. However, Core Machinery Orders YoY posted a robust +6.6% vs. 4.0% forecast, while Exports contracted -1.7% and Imports plunged -7.7%, reducing the trade deficit significantly to -637.6B yen from -893B. These readings signal that despite external weakness, Japanese internal machinery demand remains resilient.
Turning to Europe, the eurozone’s inflation data supports a growing disinflation trend. Headline CPI fell to 1.9% YoY from 2.2%, and Core CPI came in at 2.3% YoY vs. 2.7% prior. MoM readings for all CPI measures printed 0.0%, reinforcing that price momentum has stalled. The ECB’s Elderson and Lane both acknowledged this trend, setting the tone for a more dovish summer if wage data aligns.
In the United States, today's schedule was dense with economic catalysts. Housing data was relatively firm: Building Permits came in near expectations (1.42M) and Housing Starts rose to 1.35M, up 1.6%. The labor market remains tight, with Initial Jobless Claims at 246K and the 4-week average holding steady at 240K. These numbers suggest continued economic resilience but not acceleration. The MBA Mortgage Rate stands at 6.93%, continuing to weigh on affordability. The EIA’s oil stock report showed a moderate -2.3M draw in crude, alongside a surprise +1.5M build in gasoline inventories, reflecting downstream bottlenecks more than demand weakness.
The FOMC kept rates at 4.50% as expected, but the new dot plot projects only one cut in 2025, compared to the two previously expected. The Fed’s projections still assume inflation gradually moderating but highlight the risk of delaying easing into late Q4. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 was unchanged at 3.5%, supporting the narrative of a soft landing without the urgency for rate relief.
Equity markets reacted negatively to this macro landscape. The Dow fell -299 points (-0.70%), the S&P 500 lost -50.3 points (-0.83%), and the Nasdaq 100 dropped -218 points (-1.0%). The VIX spiked 12% to 21.40, pushing back into risk-off territory. All 11 S&P sectors closed lower, with Technology (-1.72%), Healthcare (-1.66%), and Consumer Discretionary (-1.72%) leading the decline. Energy (XLE) was the most resilient sector, closing flat as crude prices held firm. On a YTD basis, Technology still leads at +23.7%, followed by Communications (+25.4%) and Real Estate (+12.7%), but momentum is clearly weakening.
Equity factor performance confirmed the defensive tone. All core size/value/growth matrices were negative, with small-cap value and growth both down -1.1%. Among qualitative factors, only Buybacks (+0.3%) and IPOs (unchanged) showed stability. Private equity, quality, and hedge fund proxies all underperformed. Momentum and low volatility outperformed slightly intraday, which often precedes late cycle rotations into capital preservation.
In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields remained firm. The 2Y yield was at 3.956%, 10Y at 4.410%, and 30Y at 4.910%, maintaining a deeply inverted curve. This inversion continues to reflect recession hedging, although long-end yields are now rising on supply pressure. Treasury ETFs showed a modest recovery: TLT +1.22%, TLH +1.12%, and TIPs +0.52%, benefiting from short-covering after recent oversold levels. Investment-grade credit was strong: LQD +0.36%, Senior Loans +0.37%, and High Yield (HYG) was flat. Convertible bonds (CWB) remained under pressure at -0.50%, consistent with the growth unwind.
Globally, developed markets declined broadly. The U.K. (EWU -1.2%), France (EWQ -1.4%), and Germany (EWG -1.3%) fell in tandem, echoing weak eurozone demand. Japan (EWJ -0.82%) and Australia (EWA -0.92%) also pulled back. Emerging markets underperformed significantly: China (FXI -1.6%), Brazil (EWZ -0.70%), and South Korea (EWY -2.60%) declined on risk aversion and a stronger U.S. dollar.
Commodities provided a mixed signal. Crude oil spiked intraday, with WTI at $74.94 (+4.4%) and Brent at $73.71 (+4.6%), as geopolitical risk flared and stockpiles tightened. Heating oil rose +2.27%, while gasoline gained +1.34%. Natural gas added +0.81% on weather and storage expectations. Gold remained flat at $3,387.83, while silver outperformed with a +0.32% move. In agriculture, soybeans and wheat bounced, but corn (-0.88%) and sugar (-3.64%) slid on oversupply concerns.
Yields globally show differentiated behavior. The U.S. 10Y yield is 4.41%, Germany’s 10Y stands at 2.53%, and the U.K. 10Y trades at 4.56%. The yield spread between U.S. and Japan remains wide, supporting USD/JPY structurally. The U.S. 30Y yield has stabilized at 4.91%, while Japan’s 30Y is at 2.93%. This spread continues to support carry trades and reinforces the need for Japan to intervene if the yen weakens past 145.
All in all, markets are shifting into a cautious consolidation phase. The Fed's steady hand, modest disinflation in Europe, firm labor data, and rising real yields all point to a delicate balance. Investors should stay underweight long-duration bonds unless auction demand improves. Sector-wise, focus should remain on energy and defensives, while trimming growth and discretionary exposure. Commodities offer upside potential amid geopolitical risk, and real assets remain in favor.
a comparison or integration of two trading concepts: 📉📈
The image presentsElliott Wave Theory and Smart Money Concepts (SMC), often associated with Wyckoff distribution/accumulation.
🌟 On the left side, there's an illustration of Elliott Wave Theory, showing a typical 5-wave impulse (labeled 1-2-3-4-5, presumably wave A) followed by a 3-wave corrective structure (labeled A-B-C). Within this, there's a smaller "Accumulation" phase depicted.
✅ On the right side, there's a diagram illustrating Smart Money Concepts/Wyckoff phases, specifically "Accumulation," "Manipulation," and "Distribution." This diagram shows how price moves through these phases, often with a false breakout (manipulation) before the true move.
🟢The overall implication of the image and its central text is that SMC principles, such as accumulation and distribution, can be observed or understood within the larger framework of Elliott Wave patterns. It suggests that SMC provides a more granular view of market behavior (identifying smart money footprints) that aligns with or unfolds within the Elliott Wave structures.
USD_CHF SHORT SIGNAL|
✅USD_CHF made a nice
Rebound from the support
Below just as we predicted in
Our previous analysis but is now
About to retest the horizontal
Resistance of 0.8200 from where
We can go short with the TP
Of 0.8124 and the SL of 0.8207
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XRP: You Have What it Takes, Success is Yours!It seems XRP has been trading at the same price for more than 7 months. The mean price since XRP broke above $2 back in December 2024.
Can you see what I am referring to? Good if you do.
If you don't, continue reading, everything will be clear in a few seconds.
Price action
Is neutral price action at this point bearish or bullish?
Bullish.
Most of the action has been happening above $2 and this is clearly bullish.
The upswings are bigger than the down-swings.
Buy volume is higher than sell volume.
The main move is an advance that started in November 2024.
The bigger picture and major trend is bullish.
The fundamentals are getting better everyday; there is nothing bearish on this chart.
Where to next?
New all-time high and higher prices.
How to approach the market
Start with 3-5X. When the bullish action is fully confirmed, the market starts to move higher supported by high volume and marketwide wide action, go all-in. That's the only way to win.
Make the winners pay big. Keep the losers small.
If you don't take risk you can't win in this or any other game.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Trading tips
Only risk money you can afford to lose and make sure to do a calculated risk. Not crazy risk nor gamblers risk. 2-3X. As the market advances, 3-5X. When the trend is confirmed, go higher and continue to increase until you max everything out. When our target hits sell everything and never look back. You can buy again when there is a crash or a retrace. Opportunities are endless.
If you secure profits and the pair continues to grow; who cares! Buy one that is safe and secure. Buy a new one that is trading low. Don't go back to the same pair just because you won. Detach. Take some time out. Secure profits. Comeback refreshed and the market will bless you with endless opportunities, it is not going away.
Motivation
Just make sure to win-win-win.
If you can win small, you will eventually win big.
Win, win, win. Make a habit of winning.
Go step by step.
Many people overestimate what they can do in a year but underestimate what they can achieve in a decade. Think long-term.
Instead of tomorrow, next week or next month, think how much money you are going to make in a decade if you start preparing now. What if everything you are doing does not need to yield an instant result? Now you can relax your mind. It will all come to you, but let it come, there is no rush.
Even if you hurry, life will continue to give you what you need, what you earned and not what you think is best. Whatever situation you are in right now is the result of past action. Take responsibility and watch everything grow.
Your future can change if you make the right choices today. You can change everything, start now; what can I do today to make my day better? What is the best action to take? Should I go out and get drunk, sniff a bunch of drugs, or, should I exercise and eat clean, do what it takes to reach my goals?
Choose wisely and watch your profits grow.
Whatever results you get when trading is just a reflection of your mind and the choices you make in your day to day live. Belief and take control.
You have what it takes.
Success is yours.
Namaste.
NZDUSD BUY SETUP – GLOBAL HORNS 🇳🇿 NZDUSD BUY SETUP – GLOBAL HORNS
🕐 Timeframe: 1H
📈 Direction: BUY
📍 Entry: 0.6012 (active)
🎯 Target: 0.6033
📊 Context:
Price swept the lows and tapped into a prior structural zone. I’m positioned for a short-term rebound into the 0.6033 area, where liquidity likely sits from previous consolidations.
📌 As always, I manage these trades based on price action and time — not using traditional stops.
#GlobalHorns #NZDUSD #ForexTrade
$NVDA JADE LIZARD 7/11 expirationNASDAQ:NVDA JADE LIZARD
+1 $150 Call 7/11
-1 $148 Call 7/11
-1 $139 Put 7/11
Total Credit ~$400
Collateral required: $13,900
AT EXPIRATION:
PRICE > $150 = profit of $200
PRICE between $139 - $150 = profit of $400 (max)
PRICE < $139 = Assigned to purchase 100 shares of NASDAQ:NVDA @ $135 per share, (avg cost).
(No risk to upside)
Accumulate around 3400, Keep interest rate today⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices slipped below the $3,400 threshold on Tuesday, weighed down by renewed strength in the US Dollar (USD), despite a worsening global risk sentiment. The resilience of the greenback limited gains in the safe-haven asset, though mounting tensions between Israel and Iran continue to offer underlying support. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $3,380, down 0.05%.
Although risk appetite remains subdued, gold has struggled to rally, as the US Dollar regains ground. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the currency against a basket of six major peers, climbed 0.46% to 98.58.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions intensified after US President Donald Trump abruptly departed the G7 summit in Canada on Monday in response to unfolding events in the Middle East. In a stark warning posted to his social platform, he urged, “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran,” signaling a sharp escalation in the conflict that began last Friday.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price is moving in accumulation zone below 3400 - 3365. Break and return above 3400, continue to accumulate.
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3437- 3439 SL 3444
TP1: $3425
TP2: $3410
TP3: $3395
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3338-$3340 SL $3333
TP1: $3346
TP2: $3355
TP3: $3370
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
What's Nifty Next?With rising tensions between countries, market sentiment is becoming increasingly cautious. This geopolitical uncertainty is likely to weigh heavily on investor confidence in the coming weeks.
Based on the current scenario, a realistic target for Nifty seems to be around 21,000 by July, especially if the negative sentiment continues and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remain net sellers. Global cues, crude oil prices, and currency fluctuations could further impact the index's performance.
📌 However, if by any chance Nifty manages to close above 25,500, it would indicate an extremely strong bullish breakout, defying current market fundamentals. Given the present conditions, this seems highly unlikely, unless there is a sudden positive catalyst such as:
A major resolution in geopolitical issues
Strong corporate earnings
Aggressive policy support from the government or RBI
🧠 My Take:
For now, it’s wise to remain cautious and watch key support/resistance levels. Volatility may remain high, and short-term traders should manage their positions carefully.
💬 Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Do you think 21k is coming soon, or can the bulls surprise us all?