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BTC is in strong support area based Fib RetracementHi again, for a long time I don't share my ideas here, so I'm trying to consistent share my thought here. Technical BINANCE:BTCUSD in strong support line based Fib Retracement on $76,113.25 (on daily Timeframe) The price currently below the EMA 200 MACD still doesn't give the sign to long BTC Dominance still high (60.39% based on Coinstast ) Macro Based on similiar correlation with S&P500, it's still give no good sign to bounce back (it maybe going deeper) About the global economy, US Tariff still give the global uncertainty and cold vibes haha Summary If you going long term, maybe you can go buy BTC in small size, is a good price to add the collection If you going short term, I think it will be go deeper first Thanks for your time! I hope everyone have a good time and good health!
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by kepinworks
4
(BTC) bitcoin "signs"the blue/green line is crossing the purple dotted line. This is a sign representing a transitional phase between moving averages where the short line begins to cross over the patterns of longer time frames. I was looking at this today and though any indicator is never 100% accurate it is always better to see positive signs rather than no signs at all. Could this be the summer of crypto? A positive crypto summer unlike so many previous years? I'm well aware the second quarter just started and summer is not close by 3 months time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CryptocurrencyBlot
Déjà Vu: 2025 Tariffs Mirror 2018 Trade War PlaybookThe economic strategy behind the new wave of tariffs bears an unmistakable resemblance to the 2018–2020 U.S.–China trade conflict. That’s no coincidence. Peter Navarro, the architect of the 2018 tariff playbook under President Trump, has once again stepped into a key role shaping trade policy in Trump’s second term. In 2018, the Trump administration launched a phased escalation of tariffs, starting with targeted duties on Chinese imports and expanding into broader measures that disrupted global supply chains. By Q4 2018, the S&P 500 had fallen nearly 20%, while tech-heavy names like NVIDIA plunged over 50% amid valuation compression, supply chain fears, and geopolitical stress. Peter Navarro’s re-emergence signals that this isn’t just about political posturing. Known for his hardline stance on China and focus on economic nationalism, Navarro treats tariffs not as negotiation tools but as long-term policy. In 2018, that posture drove escalation until the market forced a pause. Now in 2025, we’re watching the same script unfold almost beat for beat: 1. Start with China 2. Expand globally 3. Soften the global rhetoric to isolate China 4. Target key sectors (semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, energy) 5. Start the media misdirection to work behind the scenes with China 6. Set up a “deal” under market pressure In 2025, the market again entered bear territory but staged a brief recovery after a pause in reciprocal tariffs. As of April 21, 2025, the index sits 16% off its February high and still in a downtrend. Now, looking at the charts, here where things begin to take shape. Let’s start with the 2018 chart (figure 1). Like previously mentioned, back in 2018, the S&P 500 dropped over 20% between September and December, finding the bottom at a key support from 20 months prior (Q1 2017). The first gray box represents 10 weeks from the 2018 high. The 10 weeks is important because we are currently 10 weeks off the 2025 high, so this first gray box shows historically where we are today relative to the 2018 prices. The second gray box represents the 3 remaining weeks of drawdown, which was roughly 10%. Figure 1 Now looking at the 2025 chart (figure 2), we have the same 10-week gray box marked up, and the additional 3-week, 10% drawdown, gray box that follows. Coincidentally, or not, the bottom of the second gray box aligns almost perfectly with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the 2022 swing low to the 2025 high (figure 3). Even more interesting, that support level also ties back to the September 2023 high—roughly 20 months prior. Sound familiar? Figure 2 Figure 3 I will be watching that 4500 level for SPX over the next few weeks as Trump and Navarro are preparing to roll out more sector-specific tariffs in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell is facing renewed pressure, including calls to step down—again, nearly identical to the rhetoric from late 2018. Currently, markets are pricing in just a 10% chance of a rate cut, according to Kalshi. But if the market continues to slide, Navarro and Trump may dial up pressure on the Fed to act. A rate cut in early May could mark the market bottom—just like Powell’s dovish pivot did in early 2019. If the 2018 blueprint holds, we’re in the middle innings. Tariffs are broadening, the market is reacting, and the Fed is being boxed in. The coming weeks may test the 0.618 Fib level on the S&P 500. If Powell pivots and rhetoric softens, we may find a low—and history will have rhymed, if not outright repeated. If Powell stays strong, then Trump and Navarro may publicly pull back and take negotiations behind closed doors. I don’t see this is being just being coincidental. This seems to be following a very familiar playbook.
SP:SPXLong
by NotAFinancialAdvisor1
2
BTC.D: 1M chart still looking bullish for nowAs above. BTC.D still looking to continue to slowly inch higher in the near future. No ALT season yet, unfortunately for those anticipating this event. Stronger case for BTC.D to get to 70% range once 65% range is entered. I am not sure this is going to be a rapid BTC.D event given the historic trend and current economic climate. Might see ALTs bleed again a little more than BTC to achieve this 70% level rather than BTC going parabolic. Would have cash on hand for potential start of ALT season to get those basement discount prices on ALTs if that should happen as I anticipate some kind of ALT season down the road..the question is when and how big... Will follow. Good luck traders!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by Ambassadorj
3
GBP/USD bulls to mitigate @1.32500 handle as we start the month with trade wars which the cable possibly will not be part of, optimism has grown around a potential Ukraine peace plan reinforcing Britain’s support. Sterling also has gained strength from the expectations that UK interest rates will remain higher for longer. Bank of England Deputy Governor Ramsden highlighted that persistent wage pressures could keep inflation above target, though he noted future rate cuts may not be gradual. This outlook, combined with geopolitical developments, has boosted investor confidence in the pound and so am hoping for a retest to my fair value price @ 1.27000 handle before the bulls comes in and drives the price to my unmitigated zone 1st Tp @1.32500
Long
by que
ES Daily Indicator UpdateI think the market is gonna go oversold on the daily again. It broke the wrong way out of the pennant-like structure, we still haven't heard about the electronics tariff, and we've got a slew of earnings coming up where every conf call will talk about tariffs and recession. Long on gold at least until we hit that bottom again, not shorting because of the open gaps above. I think the only hope of filling those gaps is a deal with China. Even if that happens, it'll probably be a few weeks or months. If daily indicators go oversold, I plan on going long on index or sector ETFs. Too risky right now to bet on individual stocks.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
10
GC UpdateNot sure if this is a melt up or not, bit strange that RSI and MFI are moving in opposite directions. I have a long term position set up, but I'm not planning on doing big options plays unless MFI hits the red line or if I expect the stock market to drop. I might play a little tomorrow for TSLA earnings, lol. (TSLA has dropped so much it's only 2.6% of QQQ, it won't be able to tank the market on its own.) I think the next big gold movement happens when the China electronics tariff is announced. No idea when that happens. The market is just a guessing game with Orange Man in charge. In any case, I have a EUROTLX:4K target for gold, don't really care if I have to wait a few months or a year or whatever. This seems like a safer bet than anything else.
COMEX:GC1!
by hungry_hippo
ES UpdateSorry, I don't have time to post during work hours, I did comment on my last ES post though. As I mentioned, RSI hit oversold mid day on my 3hr chart with positive MFI divergence. So here's an updated plot. I can't watch the market continuously, so I didn't play the bounce. Thought about some calls EOD, but if you hold a long position overnight, you're basically betting on TRump keeping his mouth shut for a day. Didn't like the odds, lol. Futures are green so far though. Just keep in mind TSLA reports tomorrow after hours (AH). I'm not planning on going long on the stock market until the daily gets oversold. At least that'll give me bigger bounce where I don;t have to pay attention every minute, lol.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
GBP/USD Ready for Takeoff!Hi Traders ! Price action remains strong within the uptrend channel, supported by the 20 EMA, while the 200 EMA stays well below—confirming bullish momentum. Target zone: 1.34234 RSI shows strength with more room to rise. Stay sharp, traders! If the price continues to respect the channel, we might see a strong bullish push soon. 📌 Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own analysis and consult with a professional before making trading decisions.
Long
by FXOnTop
Gold Hits 3430 – Time to Hunt the Reversal or Reload the Bull?💥 “3430 Cracked – Is Gold Flexing or Faking?” 📍 XAUUSD Sniper Plan | April 21 NY Session | ATH Game On 🧾 Macro Overview – Why Gold Is on Fire Gold just pierced through ATH 3430.34, fueled by: 🔥 Escalating US–China trade tensions (145% US tariffs, 125% China response) 📉 Weakening USD (Dollar Index down 5.2% YTD) 🏦 China’s strategic gold accumulation (tripled reserves to 8%) 📊 Rate cut expectations from the Fed & bond volatility 📈 Goldman Sachs target upgrade: $3700 → $4500 if tensions persist In short: gold isn’t just bullish—it’s a magnet for global fear, positioning, and central bank demand. But after a vertical sprint, even bulls need to breathe. 🔻 SELL ZONES (Only from Premium + Confirmed Trap Structures) 🔴 Sell Zone 1 – ATH Rejection Trap 🎯 Entry: 3430–3434 🛑 SL: 3440 ✅ TP1: 3412 ✅ TP2: 3390 ✅ TP3: 3360 📌 Key Confluences: – Final sweep zone above ATH – H1 OB + M15 FVG – RSI divergence building – Psychological exhaustion at major round number 🔴 Sell Zone 2 – Parabolic Extension Fade 🎯 Entry: 3444–3448 🛑 SL: 3455 ✅ TP1: 3420 ✅ TP2: 3400 ✅ TP3: 3375 📌 Key Confluences: – Fibonacci 1.618 extension – Unmitigated imbalance – Microstructure overextension (use only with M5/M15 CHoCH) 🟢 BUY ZONES (Only from Real OB + FVG Zones, No Bounce Traps) 🟢 Buy Zone 1 – Mid-Structure Reentry (FVG/OB Confluence) 🎯 Entry: 3395–3398 🛑 SL: 3386 ✅ TP1: 3420 ✅ TP2: 3432 ✅ TP3: 3444 📌 Key Confluences: – Clean M15 OB – FVG support from previous impulse – Trendline touch + EMA21/50 base – RSI reset at mid-levels 🟢 Buy Zone 2 – H1 Demand + Deep Discount Opportunity 🎯 Entry: 3360–3365 🛑 SL: 3345 ✅ TP1: 3390 ✅ TP2: 3412 ✅ TP3: 3430 📌 Key Confluences: – Strong H1 OB zone (unmitigated) – 38.2–50% Fibonacci retracement – High-probability trap zone if price flushes aggressively 🧠 Final Thoughts Don't chase the top. Gold has no problem dragging traders up the hill, then letting gravity take over. Sniper entries only. No emotion. No FOMO. Just structure, logic, and patience. 💬 Caught the 3430 sweep? Ready to reload or reverse? 👇 Drop your thoughts below — or just leave a 🧠 if this plan helps keep you focused. Let’s keep trading smart, precise, and together. — GoldMindsFX Team ✨
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
Tears of Liberty. Lets Make America Sell Again.Over the past decade, the U.S. stock market has significantly outperformed global stock markets excluding the United States. This divergence in returns has been one of the defining features of global investing since 2015, with U.S. equities—especially large-cap technology stocks—driving much of the outperformance. Annualized Returns (2015–2025) AMEX:SPY , S&P 500 Index(U.S.): The S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 13.8% over the past ten years. NASDAQ:ACWX , MSCI All World ex U.S. (Rest of World): Global stocks outside the U.S. returned an average of 4.9% annually over the same period Year-by-Year Breakdown Year | SPX | World ex U.S. | U.S. Surplus 2024 23.9% 4.7% +19.2% 2023 23.8% 17.9% +5.8% 2022 -19.6% -14.3% -5.4% (!) 2021 26.6% 12.6% +14.0% 2020 15.8% 7.6% +8.2% 2019 30.4% 22.5% +7.9% 2018 -6.6% -14.1% +7.5% 2017 18.7% 24.2% -5.5% (!) 2016 9.8% 2.7% +7.1% 2015 -0.7% -3.0% +2.3% Key Drivers of Performance U.S. Outperformance The U.S. market’s dominance was driven largely by the rapid growth of technology giants (such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet), which benefited from strong earnings growth, global market reach, and significant investor inflows. International Underperformance Non-U.S. markets faced headwinds such as multiply choking sanctions and tariffs, slower economic growth, political uncertainty (notably in Europe), a stronger U.S. dollar, and less exposure to high-growth technology sectors. Valuation Gap By 2025, U.S. stocks are considered relatively expensive compared to their international counterparts, which may offer more attractive valuations going forward. Recent Shifts (2025 Trend): As of early 2025, international stocks have started to outperform the S&P 500, with European and Asian equities seeing renewed investor interest. Factors include optimism over economic recovery in China and strong performance in European defense and technology sectors. Long-Term Perspective Historical Context While the past decade favored U.S. equities, this has not always been the case. For example, during the 2000s, international stocks outperformed the U.S. following the dot-com bust. Market Weight The U.S. accounts for roughly 60% of global stock market capitalization and about 25% of global GDP, so its performance has a substantial impact on global indices. Conclusion From 2015 to 2025, the U.S. stock market delivered nearly triple the annualized returns of global markets excluding the U.S., primarily due to the outperformance of large-cap technology stocks. While this trend has persisted for most of the decade, early 2025 shows signs of a potential shift, with international equities beginning to close the performance gap. Investors should remain aware of valuation differences and the cyclical nature of global market leadership. The main technical chart for U.S./ ex U.S. ratio indicates the epic reversal is in progress.
AMEX:SPY
by PandorraResearch
2
XAUUSD Market Recap – April 21, 2025 | NY Close Review🟨 XAUUSD Market Recap – April 21, 2025 | NY Close Review 🔹 Price Action: Gold made another aggressive high into ATH 3430, reaching full premium territory with strong upside momentum through London into NY. But the reaction near 3430 was sharp — indicating potential short-term exhaustion. 🔍 What Worked Today ✅ Liquidity sweep complete – Price ran clean through the previous weak high and liquidity above 3425, grabbing the top before rejecting. ✅ Bullish BOS confirmed – Structure remained bullish on all timeframes, with no valid CHoCH break on H1 or H4. ✅ Sniper bias confirmed – Directional buys played perfectly from lower OBs (especially the ones marked pre-Asia and pre-London). 🔍 What Didn’t Happen ❌ No mitigation of lower H1/H4 FVGs – Zones between 3361 and 3387 remain completely untouched. ❌ The 3305–3315 OB area wasn’t retested – Meaning any breakout traders looking for retests were left hanging. ❌ No real signs of reversal structure – Despite the reaction off ATH, we’ve yet to see a proper CHoCH + BOS sequence on H1 or H4. ⚠️ Unmitigated Key Zones 🟦 H1 FVG – 3361 🟦 H4 FVG – 3285.00–3300.00 🟧 H4 OB block – 3224 (untouched, still a strong magnet if sell momentum kicks in) These levels remain high interest for any future discount buy setups if price starts pulling back. 📉 What Was Rejected Today 🔼 3430 – New ATH. Price wicked into this level and rejected instantly with visible CHoCH on M15 and M5, leaving a clear bearish reaction. 🔼 M15 OB – The supply zone around 3425–3430 acted as short-term resistance with an intraday bearish sequence into NY close. 🧠 Market Sentiment 🔸 Still bullish on HTF, but intraday shows clear profit-taking behavior. 🔸 Dollar weakness and geopolitical premium still holding gold up — but overextension risk is real above 3425. 📍 Summary Gold remains in a strong uptrend but may be showing short-term exhaustion after hitting ATH 3430. With unmitigated OBs and FVGs below, any deeper pullback will be liquidity-driven, not structural bearishness… yet. We'll prep the sniper plan separately soon — stay ready. 🧠⚔️
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds