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S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.3-28.3 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 11th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13. We are in the second phase, which appears bearish by all indications. This is a significant bear market completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels are outlined in my previous posts. My preliminary timeline projections for the base cycle completion were mentioned in the previous post. ⚠️ The extreme forecast on March 24 – the midpoint of retrograde Mercury – turned the market downward after a small bullish correction. This was anticipated last week. The market lacked the strength even to reach the resistance level at 5850. A short position has been opened. The next extreme forecast is April 7.
CBOE:SPX
by irinawest
Buy now BTCUSDFibonacci Retracement Levels The chart uses Fibonacci retracement from a low of around $60,290 to a high of $107,187 to find potential support and resistance levels. Key levels: 0.236 (23.6%) at $96,119 (resistance) 0.382 (38.2%) at $89,272 0.5 (50%) at $83,738 (current price zone) 0.618 (61.8%) at $78,205 (strong support) 0.786 (78.6%) at $70,326 Current Price Action BTC is currently trading around $83,361. It has retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level, which is often seen as a critical zone for trend continuation. Trend Projection A downward trendline was broken, suggesting a possible trend reversal. A bullish move (red arrow) is projected, targeting the green resistance box around $116,000 - $120,000. The price needs to break above $89,272 and $96,119 to confirm this upward move. Key Takeaway If BTC holds above the 50% retracement level and continues upward, it could be aiming for a new high. If it fails, it may retest the $78,205 or $70,326 support levels before another attempt at breaking out.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by wealthsmith23
Chaos to Clarity: Mastering the Discipline Mindset5min read Looking back on my journey as an investor, I can see how much my mindset shaped my path. When I first started, I was a mess—chasing every hot tip, jumping into trades without a plan, and letting my emotions call the shots. I’d feel a surge of excitement when price spiked, but the moment it dipped, I’d panic and sell, locking in losses. It was a chaotic rollercoaster, and I was losing more than I was gaining. I knew something had to change, but I wasn’t sure where to begin. One day, I took a step back and really looked at myself. I realized the market wasn’t my biggest problem—I was. I was reacting to every little fluctuation, letting fear and greed drive my decisions. I started paying close attention to how I felt when I made trades. Was I anxious? Overconfident? I began noticing patterns. When I was stressed, I’d make impulsive moves that almost never worked out. But when I was calm and focused, my choices were better, and I’d often come out ahead. That was my first big revelation: my state of mind was the key to everything. I decided to get serious about controlling my emotions. I started small, setting strict rules for myself. I’d only trade when I was in a good headspace—calm, clear, and ready to stick to my plan. If I felt off, I’d step away from the screen, no exceptions. It was tough at first. I’d catch myself itching to jump into a trade just because everyone else was talking about it. But I learned to pause, take a deep breath, and check in with myself. Over time, I got better at staying steady, even when the market was a whirlwind. I also realized how much my beliefs were holding me back. I used to think I had to be in the market constantly to make money. If I wasn’t trading, I felt like I was missing out. But that mindset just led to burnout and bad calls. I started to change my thinking—I told myself it was okay to sit on the sidelines if the conditions weren’t right. I began to see that success wasn’t about being the busiest; it was about being the smartest. I focused on quality over quantity, and that shift made a huge difference. My wins started to outnumber my losses, and I felt more in control than I ever had. One of the toughest lessons came when I stopped blaming external factors for my failures. If a trade went south, I’d point the finger at the market, the news, or even the system I was using. But deep down, I knew that wasn’t the whole truth. I had to take responsibility for my own actions. I started treating every loss as a chance to learn. What was I feeling when I made that trade? Was I following my rules, or did I let my emotions take over? By owning my mistakes, I began to grow. I became more disciplined, more aware of my own patterns, and better at sticking to what worked. I’m not going to pretend I’m perfect now—I still make mistakes, plenty of them. At the beginning of this week, I came into trading loaded with personal problems from real life. I didn’t even pause to clear my head; I just dove straight into the charts and started opening long positions without much thought. By Friday, I realized what I’d done—I’d let my distracted, emotional state drive my decisions. So, I closed all my positions except one, cutting my losses quickly and stepping back to reassess. That’s what’s changed: I recognize those mistakes almost immediately now. I don’t hang on to them or let them spiral. I catch myself, fix the problem fast, and move on without beating myself up. That ability to pivot quickly has been a game-changer. I’m not stuck in the past anymore—I’m focused on getting better with every step. Over time, I learned to tune out the noise and focus on what I could control. I stopped worrying about what other people were doing and started trusting my own process. I’d remind myself that investing isn’t just about the numbers—it’s about the person behind the trades. The more I worked on my mindset, the more consistent my results became. I learned to stay present, keep my emotions in check, and approach every decision with a clear head. That’s what turned me into the investor I am today—someone who’s not just chasing profits, but building a sustainable, successful approach to the markets, mistakes and all.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALEducation
by vagada
Reciprocal tariffs - gold continues to rise✍️ NOVA hello everyone, Let's comment on gold price next week from 03/31/2025 - 04/04/2025 🔥 World situation: Gold prices surged on Friday, reaching a new all-time high of $3,086 as uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and an uptick in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge fueled demand for the safe-haven metal. Following this, market sentiment suggests growing confidence that the Fed will implement two rate cuts in 2025. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,079, up 0.79%. Investor sentiment remains cautious as markets brace for April 2, dubbed “Liberation Day” by US President Donald Trump, who has signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all imported automobiles. This move has sparked global reactions, particularly from Canada and the European Union (EU), both of which are preparing retaliatory measures in response to the tariffs. 🔥 Identify: Gold price moves up, early April will continue to explode to NEW Ath 🔥 Technically: Based on the resistance and support areas of the gold price according to the H4 frame, NOVA identifies the important key areas as follows: Resistance: $3100, $3132, $3150 Support : $3002, $2957 🔥 NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account - The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Nova-Scalper
3
Threads of Volatility: A DOTM Conexity Play on PVHStitched for a Breakout: A DOTM Conexity Thesis on PVH Ahead of Earnings Thesis Overview PVH Corp. (NYSE: PVH) presents a compelling high-convexity options play as it approaches a long-term ascending support line ahead of its Q4 earnings release on March 31, 2025. With the stock trading at $64.34, technical indicators suggest a potential inflection point — and options markets have yet to fully price in the magnitude of a possible breakout or breakdown. This creates an opportunity to structure a limited-risk, asymmetric payoff using a Deep Out-of-the-Money (DOTM) strangle. Technical & Volatility Context Multi-year trendline support remains intact, historically leading to outsized reversals or continuations. RSI near 37 suggests oversold conditions with potential mean reversion. Implied Volatility (IV) on April options is hovering around 48–52%, modest given PVH’s history of 7–15% single-day moves post-earnings. Strategy: DOTM Strangle Expiration: April 17, 2025 (17 days after earnings) Position: Long 3x $60 Calls @ $2.30 Long 3x $55 Puts @ $1.10 Total Premium Outlay: $1,020 This strangle positions the trader for a large directional move without bias, capitalizing on any post-earnings volatility expansion. Breakeven & Move Requirements Strike/Target Price % Move from Current Call Strike $60.00 –6.75% Upper Breakeven $63.40 –1.46% Put Strike $55.00 –14.52% Lower Breakeven $51.60 –19.80% This structure reflects an attractive skew, as the stock is already below the call strike, reducing the upside breakeven distance. On the downside, the wider move required is offset by stronger historical downside volatility patterns. Payoff Dynamics The maximum loss is capped at $1,020, while gains are uncapped if PVH exhibits a strong directional reaction to earnings. The trade benefits from: A breakout above $63.40, where the calls gain exponentially. A breakdown below $51.60, where the puts pay out. Any unexpected catalyst or revaluation that increases realized volatility relative to the current IV curve. Conclusion With earnings serving as the primary catalyst, PVH is poised at a technically and psychologically critical level. The DOTM strangle offers an elegant, defined-risk play on the stock’s volatility expansion, with significant upside potential. For traders seeking asymmetric setups into earnings season, this is a thesis worth stitching into your watchlist.
NYSE:PVHShort
by TheHouseofTrade
No Tech Stock Should Trade at a Higher PE Than Apple or NvidiaWhy No Tech Stock Should Trade at a Higher PE Than Apple or Nvidia — A Case for Shorting Analog Devices (ADI) No technology company should be trading at a higher price-to-earnings (PE) ratio than industry giants like Nvidia or Apple. That principle applies directly to Analog Devices (ADI), which is currently overvalued relative to its peers. As long as ADI's price stays below $216, I believe it presents a compelling short opportunity. My short targets are as follows: - Target 1: $190 - Target 2: $168 - Target 3: $146 These price levels not only offer solid exit points for short positions but also serve as attractive long-term entry points for those looking to hold ADI shares at more reasonable valuations. For traders, these levels can be leveraged effectively through option strategies to maximize risk-reward potential.
NASDAQ:ADIShort
by Golfistry
Great Uncertainty with a Dramatic Twist: Intel’s Recent ShakeupIn a surprising move last December, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger abruptly stepped down following a tense board meeting that revealed growing dissatisfaction with his turnaround strategy. The sudden exit—on a quiet Sunday—left the tech world stunned and set off a chain of dramatic leadership changes. To stabilize the company, Intel temporarily appointed CFO David Zinsner and Executive VP Michelle Johnston Holthaus as interim co-CEOs. But the real twist came in March 2025, when the company announced the return of Lip-Bu Tan as the new CEO—a figure whose reappearance adds serious dramatic flair to the story. Tan had previously resigned from Intel’s board in August 2024, seemingly stepping away from the company for good. His unexpected return just months later, this time as CEO, feels like a corporate plotline worthy of an Emmy—or even an Oscar—nomination. Adding intrigue, Tan had reportedly clashed with Gelsinger on Intel’s direction, making his comeback a powerful statement about the board’s new vision. Meanwhile, both Gelsinger and Zinsner were named in a shareholder lawsuit filed in August 2024, alleging securities fraud tied to concealed operational setbacks. The case, however, was dismissed in March 2025 after a judge ruled there wasn’t enough evidence to prove the company misled investors. But beyond the boardroom drama lies a more sobering concern: Intel’s financial health. To me, the situation increasingly mirrors that of Lehman Brothers before its collapse—over-leveraged, burdened by mounting obligations, and heading straight into intensifying macroeconomic and sector-specific headwinds. The semiconductor industry is cyclical, and as the winds shift, Intel may simply not be financially equipped to weather the storm. Unless it secures a major loan or receives a government bailout, I believe Intel’s stock is significantly overvalued at its current price of $22. Based on its deteriorating fundamentals, market sentiment, and leverage risk, a fairer valuation could be as low as $2 per share. Ironically, that $2 level roughly aligns with a 30x price-to-earnings ratio—where many mature tech companies are trading—if one accounts for where Intel’s true earnings power might settle after the dust clears. My Fibonacci levels also suggest a sharp dip toward $12 in the near term. And even if Intel does hit that level, I suspect it may only be a dead cat bounce—temporary relief before a deeper plunge. With leadership drama, legal clouds, and financial fragility all colliding, Intel isn’t just facing a tough quarter—it’s staring down a full-blown existential crisis.
NASDAQ:INTCShort
by Golfistry
warning dji huge correction incomingThis is whats going on,Trumps tariffs are a catalyst for whats happening.we are going back down to the 0.618 level and are in an abc correction at this time, a 3 month bearish Div on the macd,also,we only have seen dji only down 2+ percent and people are freaking out about there 401k and how the richer are going to get richer by buying this dip. i agree if you have no free cash you are stuck. if this plays out its going to be painful,but after this correction we will be shooting vertical,and is your best opportunity to buy low and get rich.
TVC:DJIShort
by Mrbigman
Bitcoin Dominance Keeps Climbing Despite Bearish Divergence📉 Bitcoin Dominance Keeps Climbing Despite Bearish Divergence 🚨 Since January 29, 2025, a massive bearish divergence on Bitcoin dominance ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D ) has been forming... yet it never materialized! 🔍 Even worse—this divergence keeps growing, meaning CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D is overbought but still pushing higher, defying all technical indicators. 💡 The March 19, 2025 FOMC Pump: Bitcoin jumped +6% from GETTEX:82K to $86K 📈 Altcoins barely moved—most stayed stable or had a minor push 📉 This was not an organic move—it was institutional & political manipulation ⚠️ The Consequences: Altcoins are getting wrecked—again 😤 When Bitcoin corrects, altcoins will crash harder 🚨 Bitcoin maximalists (Saylor, politicians, whales) are pushing Bitcoin at the expense of the entire crypto industry 🎭 Reality Check: Bitcoin maximalists don’t care about crypto—they care about their own bags 💰. Their goal? Kill altcoins & centralize wealth in Bitcoin. ⏳ Until the crypto industry wakes up to this war between Bitcoin maximalists & the rest of the market, nothing will change. Another altseason cancelled, another liquidity funnel into Bitcoin to protect institutional & banking interests. Hopefully this bearish divergeance will finally plays out and we will see this very welcome altseason. Until then, altcoins are struggling. #Bitcoin #Crypto #Altcoins #BTC #BearishDivergence #CryptoManipulation #AltseasonCancelled #BTCMaximalists #CryptoNews #Saylor #InstitutionalManipulation
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by CryptoNikkoid
11
ETH/USDT | Potential Trend Reversal from Monthly Demand Zone📉 Market Overview: ETH/USDT is currently holding within a strong monthly demand zone, showing signs of possible accumulation. Price has tested this level and indicating a potential reaction. 🔍 Key Trading Conditions: ✅ Liquidity Sweep: If price sweeps the daily previous low, this could be a liquidity grab to trap sellers. ✅ Market Structure Shift (MSS): If price breaks a key lower high to the upside, it would confirm a short term bullish structure shift, signaling a potential trend reversal. 📊 Trade Plan: 🎯 Bullish Confirmation: Wait for a clear MSS to the upside on lower timeframes (4H/1H). 🔹 Entry: After a successful daily low sweep & bullish confirmation. 🔹 SL: Below the liquidity sweep low. 🔹 TP1: Mid-range supply zone. 🔹 TP2: Previous structural highs. 🚨 Risk Management: Always wait for confirmation before entering. Monitor price action around key levels. Manage risk with proper stop-loss placement. 📌 Conclusion: If ETH sweeps liquidity and shifts structure bullishly, we can expect a potential reversal. Stay patient and let price confirm the move! 📈 Like & Follow for More Market Updates! 🚀
BINANCE:ETHUSDLong
by Naveed_Azam_Zarrar
1
EUR/USD Long setup from the 3hr demand zoneSimilar to GBP/USD, I’m looking for long opportunities on EU. My key area of interest is the 3-hour demand zone, where I will wait for price to mitigate and accumulate before entering a position. Price has also changed character to the upside, further validating this demand zone as a strong point of interest. Additionally, there is a significant amount of liquidity to the upside that needs to be taken. The next major supply zone I have marked out is the 23-hour supply zone, which is further away. For now, my focus remains on the demand zone—unless price breaks below, creating a new supply level. Confluences for EU Buys: - Bullish market structure shift, with a clean demand zone left behind. - Unmitigated 3-hour demand zone, making it a strong area of interest. - Liquidity resting above, which price is likely to target. - DXY has been bearish, aligning with a bullish outlook for EU. Note: If price breaks structure to the upside without tapping my nearby demand zone, I will either wait for a new demand zone to form or look for a sell-to-buy opportunity from supply.
Long
by Hassan_fx
2
GBP/USD Longs from 1.28900 back up to 1.30000I’m looking for long opportunities around the 5-hour demand zone, aiming to take price back up to the 6-hour supply zone, where I will then look for potential sell setups. Since price is currently positioned between these key levels, I will wait to see where it starts to slow down and how it reacts. Ideally, I want to see accumulation in the demand zone and distribution in the supply zone before making any decisions. However, overall, my bias for GU remains bullish, especially as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken. Confluences for GU Buys: - A clear 5-hour demand zone presents a potential buying opportunity. - Liquidity remains to the upside, which price may target before a reversal. - DXY has shifted bearish, indicating a potential bullish move for GBP/USD. - Price has been consistently bullish on the higher timeframe over the past few weeks. Note: If price breaks below the nearby demand zone, I will expect a temporary bearish trend to form.
Long
by Hassan_fx
2
NVDA Silicon Slippage: The Bearish Case for NVDA in 5 ContractsNVDA Bearish Options Thesis — “AI’s Reality Check” A $500 Bet Against Hype, Headwinds, and a Tired Rally Underlying: NVIDIA (NVDA) Current Price: $109.67 Strategy: Buy 5x $90 PUTs expiring May 2, 2025 @ $1.00 Total Cost (Risk): $500 Breakeven: $89.00 Max Value at Expiry: $45,000 (if NVDA → $0) Target Zone: $85–$95 Risk/Reward Profile: Asymmetric 1:9+ 🧠 Thesis Summary: Why NVDA Could Drop NVIDIA, the undisputed champion of the AI GPU race, now finds itself under increasing pressure from macro forces, competition, and sentiment. This trade capitalizes on a short-term reversal thesis into earnings season and macro repricing. 🚨 Key Catalysts for Downside: 🧬 1. AI Hype Fatigue The market is cooling on generative AI names after 12+ months of hype. Investor sentiment is shifting toward monetization over narrative — which hits NVDA’s high-multiple story. 💥 2. DeepSeek & Chinese Competition The emergence of DeepSeek (a competitive LLM) raises the risk of a hardware shift in the East. China accelerating self-sufficiency in chips = reduced NVDA demand. 📉 3. Macro Headwinds & Tariffs Renewed trade war tensions threaten advanced chip exports. Tariffs and tighter regulations = real demand compression for NVDA’s top-line growth. 📊 4. Technical Breakdown Confirmed Weekly close below Fib 0.382 ($109.44) — now resistance. RSI at 41.44 — weak and trending down. Below VWAP ($113.65), signaling momentum shift. "NVIDIA isn't breaking down because it's bad — it's breaking down because the market is waking up." 💰 Trade Breakdown: 5x $90 PUTs @ $1.00 (May 2, 2025) Metric Value Contracts 5 Cost per Contract $100 Total Premium $500 Breakeven $89.00 Max Gain $45,000 Max Loss $500 (premium only) 📊 P&L Scenarios (5 Contracts) NVDA Price Drop % Intrinsic Value Total Payout Net Profit ROI (%) $100 -8.8% $0.00 $0 -$500 -100% $95 -13.4% $0.00 $0 -$500 -100% $90 -17.9% $0.00 $0 -$500 -100% $85 -22.5% $5.00 $2,500 $2,000 400% $82.70 -24.6% $7.30 $3,650 $3,150 630% $80 -27.1% $10.00 $5,000 $4,500 900% 🧮 Technical Levels to Watch Level Price Notes VWAP $113.65 Rejected 0.382 Fib $109.44 Just breached 0.5 Fib $96.07 Strong support 0.618 Fib $82.70 Bearish target RSI 41.44 Weak momentum ✅ Summary Factor Insight Total Spent $500 (5x $90 PUTs @ $1.00) Breakeven $89.00 Risk Fully capped at $500 Potential Return Up to $4,500 (900%) if NVDA → $80 Catalyst Market re-rating AI, earnings unknowns, regulatory clouds Trade Horizon 33 days — high velocity post-breakdown possible
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by TheHouseofTrade