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Beyond Technical Analysis

Spring is ComingThe last months in crypto markets have been firmly in the shadow of the looming US presidential elections. Whatever one's political stance, it was hard to argue that a Donald Trump victory would not be immensely positive for the crypto industry. The ongoing legal fights between US regulators such as the SEC and the crypto industry and the Biden administration's open hostility to the industry were a constant backdrop of the past years. In sharp contract, Republican candidate Trump had embraced the industry in early 2024. His appearance at a large Bitcoin conference in Nashville, his announcement to fire SEC chairman Gary Gensler on day 1 of a Trump administration and also his promise to build a national US Bitcoin reserve have been music to the ears of many a crypto trader. No wonder that as soon as Trump started to take the lead on election night, Bitcoin rallied sharply. A new all-time-high of $75,000 per one Bitcoin was reached nearly effortlessly. Bitcoin has been trading above $76,000 for most of the post-election days. Across the industry, the drop in tension is almost palpable. No longer will a bad faith regulator pursue legitimate companies such as Coinbase, Uniswap or Consensys at will. No longer will Senate block common-sense crypto regulatory frameworks. The possibilities now seem almost limitless. Coins of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) projects have seen some of the largest rallies since election days. Not only will these projects benefit from regulatory clarity, but their tokens might also start to receive genuine utility such as revenue shares. The fundraising environment for projects should become more open. Maybe more onchain projects will open up to American users. It is common practice for projects to geo-block American users for fear of the long arms of US law enforcement. It is nearly poetic justice that mainstream pollsters predicting a tight election were outperformed by Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market that continuously showed Trump well ahead of his Democrat opponent Kamala Harris. What will the next months hold? US presidential elections tend to be bullish for crypto markets. After Obama’s 2012 victory, Bitcoin rose nearly 2,400% within a year. In 2016, following Trump’s success, Bitcoin soared 960% over the following 12 months. One year after Biden’s 2020 win, Bitcoin rose another 360%. Of course, Bitcoin's large market cap means that much more new capital must enter to move the price substantially. Yet, the optimism in the industry right now makes everything seem possible. Sure, disappointment could always come next year, but for now, Spring has arrived early. Let's enjoy the party while it lasts.
Long
by Coinrule
2
Gold's Game: Bouncing Back from Key LevelsLet’s talk about Gold for a sec. I mentioned before that this level would be attractive for Gold because there’s liquidity and a local minimum that traders all over the world are eyeing and will be trading around. And that’s pretty much what happened. But then Gold dipped lower and 'knocked' on another level of accumulated liquidity—what some folks call the 'triangle,' or whatever works for you. It knocked and then bounced back up, leaving those bears who got stuck in short positions in a bit of a tough spot. So, bottom line, the sentiment is bullish for now, but it’s more like a 'borderline' bullish vibe, to be honest..
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by ClashChartsTeam
SPY/SPX: Top's probably not in. Hey everyone, Excited to do this post. This is a new approach to looking at things that I found super insightful and excited to share my findings with the community! As the title suggests, the top is likely not in. How can we know this? Well, besides the very obvious bullish price action and the fact that buyers won’t let anything drop 1$ without aggressively buying, there are other, more objective ways to measure tops and such. One approach that many would use would be using the ATR range. However, ATR ranges are a little flawed, especially when looking at larger picture stuff (like annual levels). This is because ATR has limitations, such as: a) It is not inflation adjusted, b) It requires a moving average of at least 14 periods, which, in some cases, are beyond the stock’s life time, c) Is a trailing average that does not correct for bearish years and bullish years. Thus, the results are skewed if bearish years fell within the ATR trailing range. You can correct for this by doing what I do, which is creating models that look at the entire life span of a stock and correct for bullish and bearish years. However, this also has some limitations, some of the same as ATR, such as: a) Over-correcting for Bullish and Bearish years, b) Insufficient history on most stocks to have a very rigorous model, c) Difficulty accounting for fundamental and other economic catalysts. Models tend to be unbiased and so omit periods where economic circumstances propped stocks up or down. So how can we account for this, simplify it and come up with useable data? Well, the easiest way to do it, is to do a cross between an ATR and a model, using scaled data (to control for inflation) and looking at ATR of the scaled data and comparing current moves to averages as well as other times where there were similar economic and fundamental circumstances. To do this, we can use stats software such as R, SPSS, SAS, Excel or MATLAB, pull the data, standardize it and get our results. Let us do this for SPX, as it has more history. Here we have SPX’s annual returns. Converting the Close to Open difference to a percent return is a simple way of standardizing data. Now, on its own, this doesn’t tell us much, because returns are dynamic and ever changing, influenced by a combination of fundamental, economic and investor sentiment catalysts. However, we can begin to make sense of things if we start applying some concepts of ATR, most notably if we take the average gains the SPX does in a year. Doing this, we get 6% average annual return since the 1800s. However, if we isolate for ONLY bullish years, or years where SPX’s gains were >0, our average becomes 16%. Currently, SPX is at a 14% gain on the year. We can hone in a bit more, by isolation SPX’s Max gain. Doing this, we see that SPX’s biggest gain in 1 year happened in 1933, when it gained 46%. How about normal, bull market years? To figure this out, the easiest way is to rank the data from highest to lowest or lowest to highest. Then, we can take the mean, median and mode of the ranked data. We already have the mean, which is 16%, but with ranked data we can get the median and mode. First, the mode. Remember, mode is the value that occurs the most frequently. For SPX, the mode is interestingly enough 14%. Which means, of all of SPX’s bullish years, more times than not they ended at a 14% gain. Now for the median. Remember, the median is the middle value of ranked data. And surprise! Its also 14%! Its difficult to interpret what this could mean. It does tell us that we don’t have a perfect, normal distribution, because, despite the median and mode being the same, the mean is not the same (remember its 16%). But, it is close! So what does this tell us? Before we make inferences about this data, I think its important that we look at a few other things first. Most notably, the standardized version of the high to low value. The gains that we have looked at only represent the open to close. However, very rarely if ever has SPX ever closed on a high or low. So we would anticipate, looking at the actual range from high to low, we would get some different values. So let’s take a look at this on SPX’s bullish years: Looking at this, the average high to low is 25%. Currently, SPX is sitting at 16%. Exciting right? This is very far from where we are now! The MAX High to Low percent was 121% and the min was 4%. The max happened in 1933, the same year that the SPX gained a whopping 46%. For interest sake, let’s rank this data from low to high and calculate the median and mode. Doing this gives us the following: The mode is 15% and the median is 24%. So how can we use this data to make predictions about SPX? Well, we can actually calculate the targets based on the average of these values. So let’s get into it. Assuming that SPX is going to close at the average, between 14% and 16%, that would convert to a price target of 5409.53 - 5504.43. So, provided this is a bullish year (which it looks like it will be), we can expect our close to fall somewhere between 5400 and 5500, which is the average closing range of bullish years. However, SPX is still trailing below the expected high to low range, with an average range of 25% which is also the median (roughly). So with SPX’s YTD low of 4682.11, that would convert to a high of 5852.64. I don’t want to make this post too long, but I have replicated this with SPY as well and here is the data in a nutshell: SPY’s average gain on bullish years is 18%. SPY’s average high to low range on bullish years is 29%. SPY’s current gain on the year is 15%, and SPY’s current high to low range on the year is 16%. This gives the following price targets on SPY: Expected close (assuming we close at the annual average): 557.15 Expected High (assuming we meet the average high to low range): 601.67. One final note about SPY, interestingly, SPY’s largest gain was in 1995 at the start of the tech bubble where it gained a whopping 35%! Imagine SPY closing this year around 637.42?! Unthinkable! But .. possible? This is not trading advice, just trying to put things into perspective for people. I see a lot of short biased ideas continually popping up. For us to meet the average high to open range by selling, would require a HUGE tank from this position. I find the most likely and realistic is a continuation up from here to meet the average move. Safe trades everyone!
SP:SPXLong
by Steversteves
3
buy 153 oxy and sell 100 xle or 1530 long oxy 1000 short xlei expect oxy to outperform xle i made my own ratio based on my own proprietary means of making a ratio that i thought worked. you pay 215 a year in dividends on 100 xle minues the oxy gains of 85 you pay 2100 a year in xle dividends on 1000 xle minus the oxy dividend gain of 850 per year this trade is very near its all time low. i expect the trade to work out and i will exit half when the trade gets to zero netting 500 on 50 units and netting 5k on 500 units the second 50 units i would run until about +1000 and exit this would net 20 x50= 1000 so total gain would be 500 plus 1000 or 1500 on 1000 units this would net $ 15,000 i am putting this trade on tomorrow is my mathe corect?
NYSE:OXY
by cutlossking
4
$ARKK caught a #Whale in $55C 1/17/2024 (Profit Target @ $69)5,000 Open Interest on this contract until this morning when we found a whale/institution buying up probably 10k 55C contracts for Jan 17... This is a HIGH RISK HIGH REWARD PLAY given the holdings in AMEX:ARKK , but something tells me it can get to MONKEY ie $69 , and some whale or some bank also believes the juice could be worth the squeeze on this former high flyer... Past All Time Highs at $158 ... $53 now = Buy Low? - Probabilities_R_Us
AMEX:ARKKLong
by Prophecies_R_Us
USD/ JPY ! 11/8 ! oversold , support , BUY nowUSDJPY trend forecast November 8, 2024 The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to gain traction on Friday, fluctuating with minor gains and losses against the US Dollar (USD) as the European session nears. Support for the JPY comes from recent comments by Japanese authorities, though concerns about the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) capacity for further rate hikes limit its upward momentum. Meanwhile, optimism around Trump’s growth and inflation policies largely overshadows the Fed’s dovish outlook, boosting US Treasury yields, which in turn weighs on the lower-yielding JPY. Additionally, renewed USD buying helps restrict any significant downside for the USD/JPY pair. Trump as president with more strict foreign policies, mainly helps the dollar stronger. This will help USD/xxx currency pairs to increase in value. /// BUY USD/JPY : zone 152.300 - 152.100 SL: 151.700 TP: 40 - 100 - 200 pips (154.100) Safe and profitable trading
Long
by Moon-ForexAcademy
3
Trading minute impulseOn the minute timeframe of XAUUSD at the moment we have the completion of the impulse formation. If the price continues to move in the direction of the impulse and the support zones do not allow it to overcome the base of the impulse, it may reach the targets 1 and 2. If the price fails to advance in the direction of the momentum and overcomes the support zone at the base of the momentum, it is very likely that the price will move sideways or against the direction of the momentum.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by syomking76418
Opening (IRA): TAN Jan 17th 33 Short Put... for a 1.01 credit. Comments: Adding to my TAN position at a strike/break even better than what I currently have on. Here, going Plain Jane short put, since there isn't a great advantage to going monied covered call here because the IV skew isn't between the call and put sides isn't significant. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 31.99 Max Profit: 1.01 ROC at Max: 3.16% 50% Max: .52 ROC at 50% Max: 1.58% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.
AMEX:TANLong
by NaughtyPines
DOGS/USDT: Persistent Bearish Momentum with No Bullish Signalshello guys. Consistent Downtrend: Price remains confined within a strong descending channel, repeatedly failing to break above the channel's upper boundary. No Bullish Signals: There are no signs of bullish divergence or reversal patterns, which suggests that the downtrend is likely to continue in the near term. Weak Support: Although there’s minor support around 0.0005400 - 0.0005300, the lack of bullish reaction at this level implies weak buyer interest. Potential for Further Decline: Without any bullish signals, the price is likely to test lower support levels within the channel.
Short
by melikatrader94
4
ELLKTOR’s Strategic Share Buyback: Boosting ConfidenceELLKTOR’s Strategic Share Buyback: Boosting Confidence in Long-Term Value ELLKTOR has recently taken a decisive step to support its stock, highlighting transparency and reliability. On November 7, 2024, the company purchased 20,000 shares at €1.7222 each, for a total transaction of €34,443.24. This strategic move brings its total share buyback to 40,000 shares, accounting for 0.011% of its total share capital. Demonstrating Confidence in Underlying Value The decision underscores management’s belief that the stock is trading well below its intrinsic value, reinforcing ELLKTOR’s image as a company that understands its potential and invests in its growth. This action aims to inspire confidence among shareholders and the broader market. Approval and Execution This share buyback program was approved during the Annual General Meeting on June 22, 2023, and ratified by the Board of Directors on September 14, 2023. The transaction was executed through Optima Bank S.A., one of ELLKTOR’s trusted financial partners. Valuation Insights ELLKTOR’s assets reflect an attractive valuation of approximately €1.2 billion, suggesting a significant underestimation of its market price. The company boasts cash reserves of €700 million, providing a robust foundation for future growth and financial stability. Additionally, Elector, under the Vardinogiannis family’s control, is valued at €200 million, while concessions like Moreas, the Rio-Antirrio Bridge, Olympia Odos, and Aegean Motorways exceed €200 million in total value. The company is set to receive €80 million from Attiki Odos, with another €80 million pending from the sale of Aktor. These inflows bolster ELLKTOR’s already solid financial position, emphasizing its substantial intrinsic value. Stock Performance: A Potential Investment Opportunity Despite these favorable indicators, ELLKTOR’s stock remains heavily discounted. This misalignment between its market price and true value presents an intriguing investment opportunity. The company’s strategic buyback demonstrates its confidence in future growth, signaling to investors that the current stock price may not reflect its genuine potential. Shareholder Dynamics and Market Impact A key reason for ELLKTOR’s exclusion from MSCI indices is the limited stock float due to significant shareholder concentration. Notably, Dutch company REGGEBORGH INVEST B.V. holds 48.155% (167,672,350 shares), MOTOR OIL (HELLAS) S.A. holds 26.882% (93,600,000 shares), and Atlas NV owns 9.798% (34,114,860 shares), leaving only 15.165% in the hands of smaller investors. Even with its MSCI removal, these major shareholders continue to show strong strategic commitment. This backing could support future stock price movements, especially as market distortions eventually correct themselves. Looking Ahead With the release of nine-month financial results on the horizon, analysts and investors will gain a clearer picture of ELLKTOR’s financial performance and potential. The expectation is that the stock will begin to reflect its true value, drawing the investor attention it warrants. ELLKTOR’s strategic buyback is more than just a corporate maneuver; it’s a testament to the company’s unwavering belief in its future and intrinsic value. As the market recalibrates to recognize these strengths, ELLKTOR stands poised for potential upward momentum, making it an intriguing option for value-focused investors.
ATHEX:ELLAKTORLong
by kgougakis
Opening (IRA): TQQQ August 16th 73 Monied Covered Call... for a 70.80 debit. Comments: High IV at 55%. Buying a one lot and selling a -75 call against in the August 16th monthly to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. I looked at doing something in the 45 DTE wheelhouse, which would be the August 30th expiry, but it was less liquid than the monthly, so opted to go shorter duration, with the plan being to roll out to the September monthly should we get further weakness and/or a test of 73. Otherwise, I'll look to just take profit at my standard 50% max. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 70.80 Max Profit: 2.20 ROC at Max: 3.11% 50% Max: 1.10 ROC at 50% Max: 1.55%
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
SOL/TetherUS _ Quarter 4 (2024) + Q2(2025) _ Distribution _ PricSOL/TetherUS _ Quarter 4 (2024) + Q2(2025) _ Distribution _ Prices _ Under _ Trading _ Venue _ Binance. Note: USDT (Not USD) as rate are not the same! Numbers remain the same as previous publication = 100% accuracy! I hate 99.99 sometime! I will now tidy up the Quarter 3 area and cover the drop! $153.35 will be the drop after $196 range! ______________________ Previous Distribution prices (Happened) $154.46 $158.15 $160.46 $167.48 ____________ $173.11 ( Happened) $177.03 $177.06 $179.67 $186.85 _____________ $187.05 $192.07 $196.68 _____________ $203.53 $217.95 $241.57 $254.87 $258.61 __________ $286.96 $312.35 $344.48
Short
by Skill-Knowledge-Conduct
XAUUSD - BUY Panic over Looks Like NY is Buying they do on a Friday especially. With Elon on Trump's advisory panel America may have a chance that is good. Inflation is still the main thorn in the side of everyone especially investors I would Suggest. Interest rates ticking down step by step so interest rates-Bonds are not as attractive as they were so might as well Buy Gold, especially in inflationary times and has there been much talk about inflation over the last couple of years ??? Oh yer so there has. Trump will be spending hard out he loves spending so Inflation again = Nightmare. He was one of the the primary causes of all this inflation the world has seen since the so called Pandemic (lol) and giving out Excessive Stimulus Cheques to everyone and his dog, far more than anyone needed. So they will remember and also dive back into the Stock Market. All Trump ever wanted was for people to remember how much the stock market rallied while he was Presidento and bugger the consequences, not surprising for such a vain man, but it has worked in his favour with the majority of the people voting him back in. So all looks good for all assets I would say without a doubt he will find away to make everything go up regardless mark my words.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by NZ_Shareman
FED lowers interest rates! Gold recovers in the short term⭐️Smart investment, Strong finance ⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold (XAU/USD) faces challenges building on Thursday’s strong rebound from the 50-day SMA support near $2,643, with some selling pressure emerging in the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar has regained strength, partly recovering from its recent slide, and a generally optimistic risk tone weighs on the safe-haven appeal of gold. Meanwhile, the fading “Trump trade” and a lack of hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve keep US Treasury yields lower, potentially limiting USD bullish momentum and offering some support for gold. Traders are now focused on the upcoming Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations for near-term trading cues. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: As expected by the market, the FED cut interest rates by 0.25%, bringing positivity and optimism to XAU in the short term. Currently, other financial sectors are starting to become vibrant again, and it will be very difficult for gold to compete. The downtrend will continue ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2727 - $2729 SL $2734 TP1: $2720 TP2: $2710 TP3: $2700 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2668 - $2670 SL $2663 TP1: $2675 TP2: $2688 TP3: $2700 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Nova-Scalper
1
What About Election Year; How Will It Affect Bitcoin?We have experience with 2018 (mid), 2020 (pre), 2022 (mid) and now 2024 (pre). Ok... I will need your help because this is all speculative opinion and we have no experience with politics... How is Bitcoin likely to be affected by the USA elections? ➖ We have experience with a capitulation process matching the 2018 midterm election (bearish-negative). ➖ The 2020 presidential election resulted in a continuation of a major bullish cycle. Capitulation happened much earlier but in the same year (March 2020). ➖ In 2022 the midterm election matched another capitulation process and bottom (bearish-negative). ➖ In 2024, we can assume that Bitcoin will be in a bullish phase when election time comes; based on previous patterns and price dynamics. 👉 Since Bitcoin is shaking now, we can say that the current market situation supports our main bias. Rather than Bitcoin producing a low now, June/July, and then moving to produce a lower low in November to then proceed to perform its major bull-market bull-run bullish rally, instead, Bitcoin can easily produce whatever bearish/negative action it needs to produce now, June-August, to grow straight up all the way to the new ATH in 2025. 👉 Based on past history, we can assume that this election year will be positive for Bitcoin. Not that I am biased to my own projection, but that a correction is needed sooner rather than later for the historical patterns to hold. Please, share your own views and opinions in the comments section below. Namaste.
Long
by AlanSantana
16