Great Uncertainty with a Dramatic Twist: Intel’s Recent ShakeupIn a surprising move last December, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger abruptly stepped down following a tense board meeting that revealed growing dissatisfaction with his turnaround strategy. The sudden exit—on a quiet Sunday—left the tech world stunned and set off a chain of dramatic leadership changes.
To stabilize the company, Intel temporarily appointed CFO David Zinsner and Executive VP Michelle Johnston Holthaus as interim co-CEOs. But the real twist came in March 2025, when the company announced the return of Lip-Bu Tan as the new CEO—a figure whose reappearance adds serious dramatic flair to the story.
Tan had previously resigned from Intel’s board in August 2024, seemingly stepping away from the company for good. His unexpected return just months later, this time as CEO, feels like a corporate plotline worthy of an Emmy—or even an Oscar—nomination. Adding intrigue, Tan had reportedly clashed with Gelsinger on Intel’s direction, making his comeback a powerful statement about the board’s new vision.
Meanwhile, both Gelsinger and Zinsner were named in a shareholder lawsuit filed in August 2024, alleging securities fraud tied to concealed operational setbacks. The case, however, was dismissed in March 2025 after a judge ruled there wasn’t enough evidence to prove the company misled investors.
But beyond the boardroom drama lies a more sobering concern: Intel’s financial health. To me, the situation increasingly mirrors that of Lehman Brothers before its collapse—over-leveraged, burdened by mounting obligations, and heading straight into intensifying macroeconomic and sector-specific headwinds. The semiconductor industry is cyclical, and as the winds shift, Intel may simply not be financially equipped to weather the storm.
Unless it secures a major loan or receives a government bailout, I believe Intel’s stock is significantly overvalued at its current price of $22. Based on its deteriorating fundamentals, market sentiment, and leverage risk, a fairer valuation could be as low as $2 per share. Ironically, that $2 level roughly aligns with a 30x price-to-earnings ratio—where many mature tech companies are trading—if one accounts for where Intel’s true earnings power might settle after the dust clears.
My Fibonacci levels also suggest a sharp dip toward $12 in the near term. And even if Intel does hit that level, I suspect it may only be a dead cat bounce—temporary relief before a deeper plunge.
With leadership drama, legal clouds, and financial fragility all colliding, Intel isn’t just facing a tough quarter—it’s staring down a full-blown existential crisis.
