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Beyond Technical Analysis

[ TimeLine ] Gold 14 April 2025Hello everyone, 📅 Today is Monday, April 14, 2025 I will be using the High-Low price levels formed on the following dates as key reference points for potential trade entries: 📌 April 14, 2025 (Monday) 📌 April 14 & 15, 2025 (Monday & Tuesday) 🧠 Trading Plan: ✅ Wait for the price range to form from the above candles (marked with green lines). ✅ Trade entry will be triggered if price breaks out of the range , including a 60-pip buffer. ✅ If price reverses and hits Stop Loss (SL) , we will cut/switch the position and double the size to recover losses on the next entry. 📉📈 Chart Reference: 🔗 Copy and paste this code in your TradingView URL: TV/x/ZYrPFZTC/
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
Short term high QQQ tgt $434I had a great day with dowsing the highs & lows on QQQ today, and since hitting this high, I asked what's next & keep getting breakdown. I did a week by week reading at the beginning of the month, and this week is supposed to take a bit of a dive & be "bottoming out". The weekly readings have been pretty helpful, so I hope this continues. Anyway, this could be absolutely incorrect, but twice I've gotten a move to the downside on QQQ of around 5.6-.7%. I also got some figures lower, but I'm not confident they are prices. They were 425-22. Sometimes numbers come that are something other than what I ask or expect, so it can get confusing. It's possible there's another little pop first, but It seems like a drop is imminent according to my work. Watch for a low on Wed./Thurs? I have lots of dates for this week including for a high today.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by JenRz
SOLUSDT soon again 200$We are looking for rise and pump here like the green arrows mentioned on the chart also we can consider new Head & Shoulders pattern which is cooking here and it can easily reverse market and stop it from more fall and then next phase of pump would be ahead to the targets like 200$. Also two major daily supports now are extremely strong and can stop price from fall and these supports are 115$ & 80$. DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision)) <<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
Long
by MMBTtrader
1
SPY short targets for this weekI expect this area to offer at least a bounce. There may be something like that on Thursday. This is based on my dowsing work. I also left my prior idea, which was done at the beginning of the month to see how things shake out with projecting week by week with my work. Obviously, the standout dates were very relevant. I don't get that there are any new dates to add. Intuitively, I will say I heard the word, "floor". So where we land may be support for a bit? We'll see. I'm still very new at intuitively hearing/receiving messages & things.
AMEX:SPYShort
by JenRz
This Chart Screams Strength — Are You Positioned?The total crypto market cap is currently showing a very strong technical setup. It’s holding firm at a major long-term rising trendline, which has historically acted as a launchpad for massive bullish moves across the market. Additionally, the 100 EMA is providing solid support, further reinforcing this zone as a key demand area. We’re also seeing a bottomed-out Stochastic RSI, now starting to curl upward — a classic early signal of momentum shifting back to the bulls. Although the market is still sitting just below the long-term resistance line, this type of structure often leads to strong breakouts once confidence returns. If this trendline support continues to hold and the market cap begins pushing back toward the $3 trillion mark, we could see a major surge in altcoin strength. Historically, this is when altcoin capital rotation picks up and narratives gain momentum. Overall, the crypto market is flashing strength — and this might just be the calm before a powerful altcoin rally. Thanks for reading! Please do like and follow us for more updates.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by unichartz
2
NAS100USD: Bearish Momentum Likely to Extend in NY SessionGreetings Traders! At present, NAS100USD continues to reflect clear bearish institutional order flow. This is evidenced by the consistent formation of lower lows and the way bearish arrays—such as fair value gaps and order blocks—continue to hold as effective resistance zones. Key Observations: Sustained Bearish Structure: The market has maintained a downward trajectory, with each rally being absorbed by bearish arrays. This behavior reinforces the dominance of institutional selling pressure. High Volatility Window – New York Session: With the New York session now underway, heightened volatility is expected. This presents a favorable environment for bearish continuation trades, particularly if price respects the key supply zones. Trading Strategy: Entry Consideration: I am awaiting a retracement into a key bearish array—either a fair value gap or a bearish order block. Upon confirmation of rejection from these zones, I will seek to enter short positions. Profit Targets: The primary objective will be to target liquidity pools residing at lower discount levels. These areas represent external liquidity where institutional participants are likely to complete order execution. By aligning with the prevailing bearish institutional narrative and waiting for high-probability confirmations within premium zones, we can strategically position ourselves to benefit from further downside momentum during this high-impact session. Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
2
XAUUSD H1 Outlook – April 21, 2025🧭 Market Overview: XAUUSD just printed new ATH at 3396, with price now pushing again into premium, currently testing 3392.7–3393.6 — a zone with weak high inducement. Price action is extremely vertical, with no clear pullback since 3285. 📈 H1 Structure: Bullish CHoCH and BOS series from April 9 Trend is vertical, clean impulsive waves No internal sign of exhaustion — yet 🧠 Context: H1 candles show price slowing slightly around the weak high area. Smart money will look to trap late buyers above 3396 if price does not break cleanly. 🔼 Key Levels ABOVE Price Type Zone Notes 🧲 Weak High Zone 3393.6–3396.0 Current zone – may act as final inducement trap 🎯 Fibo 1.0 Extension 3405–3415 First proper extension level for late buyers’ liquidation 🚨 Fibo 1.272 Zone 3445–3455 If we spike irrationally → this zone becomes the macro reversal trap 🔽 Key Levels BELOW Price Type Zone Notes 🔵 Micro Demand 3340–3345 Small M15 OB zone – valid for reaction scalps only 🟢 Confirmed OB Zone 3284–3288 Last valid H1 OB + FVG confluence → strong buy reentry ⚓️ Macro Demand Base 3220–3235 Institutional reaccumulation zone from previous rally 🎯 H1 Bias: Still bullish — but close to final exhaustion levels. 📌 Look for LTF reversal signs around 3393–3405 to consider safe short entries.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
Solid Q1 Earnings amid Tariff Turbulence Spike S&P500 VolatilityAs Q1 earnings roll in, Wall Street is digesting a rare divergence: strong fundamentals across much of corporate America paired with deepening investor anxiety. While companies are largely beating expectations, looming tariff shocks and tech sector fragility are suppressing sentiment—and returns. Tactical positioning is crucial at times like this. This paper describes the outlook for the coming earnings season and posits options strategies that astute portfolio managers can deploy to generate solid yield with fixed downside. Resilient Earnings Growth in the Current Season The Q1 2025 earnings season is underway, and early results show resilient growth despite an unsettled backdrop. According to a Factset report , with about 12% of S&P 500 firms reporting so far, 71% have beaten earnings estimates and 61% have topped revenue forecasts. Blended earnings are tracking about +7.2% year-over-year, on pace for a seventh-straight quarter of growth. However, only two sectors have seen improved earnings outlook since the quarter began (led by Financials), while most others have faced modest downgrades. Forward guidance is also skewing cautious – roughly 59% of S&P companies issuing full-year EPS forecasts have guided below prior consensus, reflecting corporate wariness amid macro uncertainty. Source: Factset as of 17/April Financials Front-Load the Upside The first wave of reports was dominated by major banks, which largely delivered strong profits and upside surprises. Volatile markets proved a boon to trading desks: JPMorgan’s equities trading revenue surged 48% to a record $3.8 billion, and Bank of America’s stock traders hauled in a record $2.2 billion as clients repositioned portfolios around tariff news. Source: Factset as of 17/April These tailwinds – along with still-solid net interest income – helped lenders like JPMorgan and Citigroup post double-digit profit growth (JPM’s Q1 earnings up 9% to $5.07/share; Citi’s up 21% to $1.96). FactSet notes that positive surprises from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and peers have boosted the Financials sector’s blended earnings growth rate to 6.1% (from 2.6% as of March 31), making it a key contributor to the S&P 500’s overall gains. Even so, bank executives struck a wary tone. JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that “considerable turbulence” from geopolitics and trade tensions is weighing on client sentiment. Wells Fargo likewise warned that U.S. tariffs could slow the economy and trimmed its full-year net interest income outlook to the low end of its range. Across Wall Street, management teams indicated they are shoring up reserves and bracing for potential credit headwinds if import levies drive up inflation or dent growth. Tech Titans Under Scrutiny Attention now turns to the yet-to-report mega-cap tech firms, which face a very different set of challenges. Stocks like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet – collectively heavyweights in the index – have been battered by the escalating trade war, eroding some of their premium valuations. Apple’s share price plunged over 20% in early April on fears that new tariffs could jack up the cost of an iPhone to nearly $2,300, underscoring these companies’ exposure to global supply chains. The tech sector’s forward P/E remains about 23 (well above the market’s 19), leaving little room for error if earnings guidance disappoints. With Washington’s tariff barrage and retaliatory threats casting a long shadow, Big Tech finds itself on the front line of the global trade war, suddenly vulnerable on multiple fronts. Any cautious outlook from these giants – which account for an outsized share of S&P 500 profits – could heavily sway overall forward earnings sentiment. Market Context and Reaction Despite solid Q1 fundamentals, equity markets have been whipsawed by macro headlines. The S&P 500 slid into correction territory, falling roughly 10% since the start of April and about 14% below its February peak, as investors de-rated stocks in anticipation of tariff fallout and a potential economic slowdown. Consumer inflation expectations have skyrocketed with risk delaying rate cuts in the near-term. This pullback has tempered valuations somewhat – the index’s forward P/E has eased to ~19 (down from ~20 at quarter-end) – even though consensus earnings estimate for 2025 have only inched down. Notably, the high-flying “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap stocks that led last year’s rally are all sharply lower year-to-date (Alphabet –20%, Tesla –40%), a stark reversal that has dented market breadth and sentiment. Source: Factset as of 17/April Investors are rewarding only the strong earnings winners: for instance, Bank of America’s stock jumped over 4% after its earnings beat, and JPMorgan rose 3% on its results. Such reactions imply the market is discriminating – strong execution is being acknowledged even as the broader mood remains cautious. Source: Factset as of 17/April Hypothetical Trade Setup Solid corporate performance is offset by significant macro risks, warranting a nimble and selective approach. While recent positive earnings may provide a short-term boost, downbeat sentiment and concerns over future tech earnings could limit gains. In this uncertain environment, investors may adopt a fundamentally driven view that the S&P 500 could rise in the near term due to strong earnings. However, the upside appears limited, supporting the case for a bullish call spread. Earnings release dates for the Super 7 With major tech firms set to report earnings in early May, investors can consider the 2nd May MES Friday weekly options. A narrow bull call spread offers a higher probability of profitability. In this hypothetical setup, the long call is at 5,250 and the short call at 5,390, resulting in a breakeven point of 5,312 at expiry. This position requires net premium of USD 315/contract (USD 62.5/index point x 5). The position returns a max profit of USD 385/contract for all strikes > 5,390 and a max loss of USD 315/contract for all strikes < 5,250. This strategy is most successful when the S&P 500 rises slowly. A simulation of this scenario using the CME QuikStrike Strategy Simulator has been provided below. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by mintdotfinance
GBPUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on GBPUSD? GBPUSD has reached a resistance zone, where a correction is expected. We anticipate a pullback toward the specified support level, which could act as a launchpad for the next bullish move. After completing the correction, the pair is expected to resume its upward movement toward the specified targets. Will GBPUSD use the pullback as a springboard for further gains? Share your thoughts below! Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Long
by HAMED_AZ
11
Bitcoin Analysis: Macro Tailwinds + Tape Reading = The Perfect B🌍 Bitcoin Analysis: Macro Tailwinds + Tape Reading = The Perfect Bulltrap (or a Historic Breakout) Published by: Pôncio Pacífico — The Portuguese God of Derivatives ⚡ Macro Context: Global Instability Is Pushing Bitcoin Up (For Now) In the last 48 hours, Bitcoin has surged nearly 3%, hitting $87,500. This happened while: The U.S. dollar weakened amid political instability (Trump challenging the Fed's authority) Gold hit a new all-time high above $3,370/oz Global equity markets corrected and bond yields declined 🔎 Sources: Bloomberg & Reuters Bitcoin is behaving like a risk-off asset. Bullish at first glance, but the tape tells a more sinister story... 🕵️ On-Chain & Order Flow Analysis (last 5 days) Delta: Negative delta candles with price still rising → classic short squeeze behavior Open Interest: Increased during the pump, then flattened → sign of trapped FOMO longs Volume: Strong at the beginning of the move, now fading while price still climbs → exhaustion? Conclusion: we’re seeing short liquidations + late long entries = DANGER ZONE. 📊 Institutional Trading Scenarios (Macro + Tape Reading) 🚑 SCENARIO A: Bulltrap in Progress (most likely) Short entry: $87,850–$88,000 Stop loss: $88,200 Target 1: $87,100 Target 2: $86,200 Trigger: Weak volume + flat delta + rising OI (FOMO) 🌪 SCENARIO B: Controlled Pullback, Institutional Re-entry Long entry: $86,300 Stop: $85,800 Target 1: $87,500 Target 2: $88,800 Trigger: Volume spike + positive delta + stable OI ⚡ SCENARIO C: Authentic Breakout Entry: $88,100 Stop: $87,600 Target: $89,800–90,000 Trigger: Aggressive delta + visible liquidations + strong volume breakout 💭 Final Pôncio Proclamation "Macro says buy. Tape says wait. Combine both and you realize: whoever buys now without a plan... is paying for the market makers' champagne brunch." Share this if you don’t want your gym buddy to long the top again. #BTC #Futures #TapeReading #CryptoAnalysis #MacroTrading #InstitutionalTools #VolumeProfile #OpenInterest #ShortSqueeze
by NunoSid
surpassing the old peak, gold price will reach above 3400 soon⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold price (XAU/USD) resumes its upward momentum, climbing to a fresh all-time high around $3,375 during Monday’s early Asian session, as markets reopen following the extended holiday weekend. The surge comes amid renewed investor appetite for safe-haven assets, fueled by ongoing geopolitical tensions and lingering uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda. With fears mounting over the broader economic fallout from escalating trade conflicts, gold has soared over 25% year-to-date. “In today’s environment of intensifying tariff ambiguity, slowing global growth, sticky inflation, and rising geopolitical risks, the strategic case for increasing gold exposure has never been stronger,” noted analysts at UBS, emphasizing a shift toward diversification away from US assets and the US Dollar. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Big increase, gold price continues to rise thanks to tariff momentum ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3404- 3406 SL 3409 scalping TP1: $3395 TP2: $3380 TP3: $3370 🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3415- 3417 SL 3422 TP1: $3405 TP2: $3390 TP3: $3370 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3357 - $3355 SL $3350 TP1: $3365 TP2: $3380 TP3: $3405 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Nova-Scalper
3