Will Russia’s New Dawn Reshape Global Finance?As the Russo-Ukrainian War edges toward a hypothetical resolution, Russia stands poised for an economic renaissance that could redefine its place in the global arena. Retaining control over resource-laden regions like Crimea and Donbas, Russia secures access to coal, natural gas, and vital maritime routes—assets that promise a surge in national wealth. The potential lifting of U.S. sanctions further amplifies this prospect, reconnecting Russian enterprises to international markets and unleashing energy exports. Yet, this resurgence is shadowed by complexity: Russian oligarchs, architects of influence, are primed to extend their reach into these territories, striking resource deals with the U.S. at mutually beneficial rates. This presents a tantalizing yet treacherous frontier for investors—where opportunity dances with ethical and geopolitical uncertainties.
The implications ripple outward, poised to recalibrate global economic currents. Lower commodity prices could ease inflationary pressures in the West, offering relief to consumers while challenging energy titans like Saudi Arabia and Canada to adapt. Foreign investors might find allure in Russia’s undervalued assets and a strengthening ruble, but caution is paramount. The oligarchs’ deft maneuvering—exploiting political leverage to secure advantageous contracts—casts an enigmatic shadow over this revival. Their pragmatic pivot toward U.S. partnerships hints at a new economic pragmatism, yet it prompts a deeper question: Can such arrangements endure, and at what cost to global stability? The stakes are high, and the outcomes remain tantalizingly uncertain.
This unfolding scenario challenges us to ponder the broader horizon. How will investors weigh the promise of profit against the moral quandaries of engaging with a resurgent Russia? What might the global financial order become if Russia’s economic ascent gains momentum? The answers elude easy resolution, but the potential is undeniable—Russia’s trajectory could anchor or upend markets, depending on the world’s response. Herein lies the inspiration and the test: to navigate this landscape demands not just foresight, but a bold reckoning with the interplay of economics, ethics, and power.
Beyond Technical Analysis
BPR with Directional Momentum-Filtered Breakouts – PerformanceThe BPR with Directional Momentum-Filtered Breakouts indicator identifies breakout opportunities by filtering momentum shifts and trend strength. The script integrates Balance Price Range (BPR) with an EMA-based trend filter and a cooldown mechanism to refine signal accuracy.
Performance Analysis
📉 Bearish Signals Effectiveness
• The indicator effectively captured multiple shorting opportunities during the downtrend.
• Sell signals aligned with price staying below the EMA, confirming trend direction.
• Momentum-based filtering reduced false signals in sideways conditions.
📈 Bullish Signals Efficiency
• Buy signals appeared in early trend reversal phases, indicating potential bullish setups.
• Some bullish breakouts led to trend continuation, while others encountered resistance.
• A trendline breakout confirmation helped validate certain long entries.
📊 Trade Cooldown & Noise Reduction
• Cooldown mechanism prevented excessive signals in choppy price action.
• Volume-based breakouts helped distinguish strong breakouts from false moves.
Key Observations
✅ Works best in trending markets – Strong trend direction improves signal reliability.
✅ Momentum filtering enhances breakout accuracy – Reduces unnecessary entries.
⚠️ Certain bullish breakouts lacked strength – Additional confirmation may help.
Conclusion
The BPR with Directional Momentum-Filtered Breakouts indicator provides a structured approach to breakout trading by leveraging momentum shifts, EMA-based trend validation, and a cooldown filter to avoid false signals. The script performs effectively in clear trending conditions while reducing noise in ranging markets.
GBP/USD: Bullish Short-Term Move Towards Liquidity at 1.2700📊 Market Structure & Key Levels
GBP/USD is currently trading around 1.2650, sitting at a key demand zone while maintaining a bullish structure on the 4H timeframe. The pair has been showing signs of accumulation and could be setting up for a liquidity grab towards 1.2700 - 1.2708 before any potential reaction.
🔍 Trade Setup: Bullish Bias Towards Liquidity Pool
BUY Entry Zone: 1.2640 - 1.2650
Target 1 (TP1): 1.2690 (Minor Liquidity Grab)
Target 2 (TP2): 1.2700 - 1.2708 (Institutional Resistance)
Stop Loss (SL): 1.2625 (Below Demand Zone & Fibonacci Support)
📈 Why Take This Trade?
✔️ Bullish Structure Intact – Price is above key moving averages (6 EMA, 24 EMA, 72 EMA), and the Supertrend remains bullish.
✔️ Institutional Liquidity at 1.2700+ – Major market players have orders sitting above this level, making it a prime target.
✔️ Demand Zone & Fibonacci Support – Price is reacting from 1.2640-1.2650, aligning with Fibonacci retracement and historical demand zones.
✔️ Order Flow Confirms Strength – Market depth shows strong buy-side interest at current levels, supporting a push higher.
📰 High-Impact News to Watch
⚠️ Fed Chair Powell Testimony (Feb 27, 2025) – Powell's remarks on inflation and future rate hikes could bring volatility to GBP/USD. Any hints of a hawkish Fed stance may strengthen the USD, leading to potential pullbacks.
⚠️ UK GDP Data (Feb 29, 2025) – A weaker-than-expected print could weigh on GBP, while a positive surprise might fuel further upside.
📌 Final Thoughts: Trade Smart & Manage Risk!
I’m keeping a close eye on the reaction at 1.2700-1.2708. Bulls have the upper hand, and liquidity above should get taken. Let’s see how price action unfolds!
🔥 What’s your bias? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 🔥
EUR/JPY – High-Probability Short Setup 1️⃣ Market Overview – Bearish Bias Confirmation
EUR/JPY remains in a strong downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. Currently, the price is retracing into a critical Fibonacci resistance zone, making this a prime opportunity to short the pair in line with institutional sentiment and seasonality trends.
2️⃣ Fibonacci Levels – Identifying Key Resistance
The Fibonacci retracement is drawn from the most recent bearish impulse.
Resistance Zone: 0.5 (156.888) to 0.786 (157.107) – a high-probability rejection area.
If price fails to break above this zone, a continuation to the downside is expected.
Prime Seasonality Insights – Historical Data Supports the Short Bias
📊 Seasonality trends over 15 years indicate that EUR/JPY historically declines in late February and early March.
🔻 February seasonality performance: -0.7% average return
🔻 Next 3-5 day forecast: Bearish probabilities (-0.06% to -0.21%)
🔻 Seasonality prediction candles show a short-term retracement, followed by downside continuation.
💡 This aligns with the technical setup, reinforcing a short bias.
4️⃣ Retail Sentiment – Smart Money Edge
🚨 79% of retail traders are LONG on EUR/JPY – a contrarian signal for a short trade.
🔻 Institutions (Smart Money) are aggressively shorting EUR/JPY, as seen in COT data.
🔻 Commitment of Traders (COT) Report shows increased institutional short positioning.
🔻 Retail traders trapped in longs will likely get stopped out, fueling further downside.
5️⃣ Technical Confirmation – Trendline & Indicators
✅ Price is below all major EMAs (6, 24, 72, 288) on the 4-hour chart.
✅ Supertrend remains bearish on the 4-hour timeframe.
✅ A downward sloping trendline aligns with the Fibonacci resistance zone.
💡 I will wait for confirmation (rejection wick, bearish engulfing candle) before entering a short position.
6️⃣ Conclusion – Trade Plan for EUR/JPY
🔹 Bias: Bearish due to downtrend, Fibonacci resistance, seasonality, and institutional short positioning.
🔹 Trade Setup:
Sell EUR/JPY at 156.88 - 157.10 (Upon rejection)
Stop Loss: Above 157.26
Take Profit Targets: 156.30, 156.04, 156.00
🔹 Key Confirmation: Retail traders are trapped in longs, seasonality supports further downside, and institutions are short.
🚀 This is a prime example of how combining Seasonality, Smart Money Positioning, and Technicals can create a powerful trade setup.
📌 What’s your outlook on EUR/JPY? Let’s discuss in the comments!
AUD/USD – High Probability Long Setup1️⃣ Trade Execution – Why I Took the Long Position
Today's AUD/USD trade was a perfect setup combining Fibonacci retracements, institutional order flow, and seasonality trends from Prime Market Terminal. The confluences aligned well for a high-probability long entry.
💡 Entry Details:
✅ Entry: 0.6380 (Key demand zone + Fibonacci golden zone)
✅ Stop Loss: 0.6365 (Below market structure)
✅ Take Profit: 0.6429 - 0.6450 (Previous supply zone & liquidity target)
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: 3:1
🎯 Result: Currently in profit, monitoring for further upside! ✅
2️⃣ Why This Trade Worked – A Breakdown of the Confluences
📊 Fibonacci Retracement – Textbook Pullback & Bounce
Price retraced into the 61.8%-78.6% Fibonacci zone (0.6380 - 0.6365) and bounced perfectly.
The bullish move followed an impulse leg, suggesting smart money accumulation in this zone.
📈 Smart Money & Order Flow – Trading with Institutions
🔹 Order flow from Prime Market Terminal shows major liquidity pools accumulating long positions.
🔹 DMX Data: 43% long vs. 57% short, indicating potential for a reversal as shorts get trapped.
🔹 COT Data: Institutional traders increasing their net long exposure on AUD.
🕵️♂️ Seasonality & Historical Trends Supported the Long
📊 Seasonal Prime data indicates AUD/USD historically trends higher in late February & March.
📅 Next 3-5 day forecast shows bullish probability, reinforcing the long bias.
📉 Technical Confirmation – Structure & Momentum
✅ SuperTrend flipped bullish on the 4H chart
✅ Price is trading above key moving averages (EMA 6, 24, 72, 288)
✅ Broke above short-term resistance, confirming upward momentum
3️⃣ Key Takeaways from This Trade
🔹 Trading with smart money flow and against retail sentiment increases trade probability.
🔹 Seasonality trends aligned perfectly, adding confidence in the setup.
🔹 Fibonacci, EMAs, and Prime Market Terminal data provided a precise entry.
🔹 Patience and risk management ensured a well-executed trade.
📌 Final Thoughts – What’s Next for AUD/USD?
🚀 With this bullish breakout, I’m looking for further longs on dips, targeting the 0.6450 - 0.6480 zone.
👀 What’s your outlook on AUD/USD? Are you long or short? Let’s discuss in the comments!
🔗 Follow me for more institutional trade setups & contrarian trading ideas!
Are you ready for a short squeeze?39.47% short interest while 98.8% of shares held by institutions sounds like pure madness of the short sellers when the stock is down 97%.
RenTech (The Famous Quantitative Hedge Fund by Jim Simons) increased its position in the last F13 by 79%.
I opened my position at 10.76 and closed 47% at 23! I have free exposure to a potential squeeze!
Is the Bull Run Over? BTC to $70K? (#7)Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility in recent days, dropping to the first major support level at $85K. Let’s analyze the key fundamental drivers behind this decline, upcoming triggers, and finally, share a few words for those who faced liquidation or major losses.
Fundamental Factors Behind Bitcoin’s Decline
In recent days, Bitcoin has suffered a sharp correction, declining approximately 7.1% over the past week, falling from $99,244 to $86,776 . This February 25, 2025, market downturn—dubbed a “market bloodbath”—was driven by a combination of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and crypto-specific factors. Here’s a breakdown:
1. Capital Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs 📉
One of the primary reasons for Bitcoin’s recent decline has been significant capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. Reports indicate that over $1 billion exited these funds in the past two weeks, with the worst single-day outflow reaching $583 million . This reduced demand exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
2. Strengthening US Dollar (DXY Index) 💵
The DXY index , a measure of the US dollar’s strength, has surged to 106.4385 , its highest level in recent years. Historically, a stronger dollar diminishes the appeal of risk-on assets like Bitcoin. This inverse correlation was a key factor in Bitcoin’s recent selloff.
3. Geopolitical Tensions & Economic Uncertainty 🌎
Recent decisions by Donald Trump’s administration , such as imposing trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico and investment restrictions on China, have fueled market uncertainty. As a result, investors are flocking to safe-haven assets, which has further pressured Bitcoin.
4. Broader Market Volatility & Crypto-Specific Events
Stock Market Turbulence: The S&P 500 recorded its worst week since Trump’s inauguration, and the Nasdaq is down 5% from its December 2024 highs. This increased risk aversion has negatively impacted Bitcoin.
Bybit Hack & Trust Issues: The recent Bybit hack , where $1.5 billion was stolen, has shaken confidence in centralized exchanges, prompting mass withdrawals.
Mass Liquidations: Over the past 24 hours, more than $650 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, amplifying the price drop.
Technical Analysis: Where is Bitcoin Headed?
1. Daily Time Frame Analysis 🕵️♂️
Bitcoin is now testing a key support zone at $85K. The next critical support lies at $80K–82K, which aligns with major demand zones and historical price action.
Bullish Case: If Bitcoin holds above $85K, it could resume the major uptrend and reclaim higher levels.
Bearish Case: A break and close below $80K–82K would invalidate the bull run, shifting the major trend to bearish and signaling a deeper correction.
2. Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) & Altcoin Market 📊
BTC.D remains elevated, meaning capital is concentrated in Bitcoin rather than altcoins. However, if BTC consolidates while BTC.D drops, it could trigger an altcoin season. In contrast, if Bitcoin breaks below $85K, short setups on altcoins become highly attractive.
3. Trading Strategy & Next Steps
For Bulls 🐂: Look for bullish confirmations above $85K with proper risk management.
For Bears 🐻: Wait for a confirmed breakdown below $80K–82K before entering short positions.
Altcoin Traders 💎: If BTC finds support, focus on potential altcoin bounces; if BTC breaks down, short weak altcoins.
Final Thoughts: A Message for Those Facing Losses
Many traders faced liquidations or heavy losses during this drop. If you’re among them, take a deep breath— this is part of the trading journey. Every successful trader has gone through periods of adversity. Learn from your mistakes, refine your risk management , and move forward smarter.
This is not the end—it’s just another phase of the market cycle. Stay patient, stay disciplined, and keep growing.
I’m Skeptic , and I’ll see you in the next analysis! 🔥
APPLE- bear spread because Grandpa Buffett is taking profitsApple has 33 PE but is growing 8-10% per year and just laid off people because of potential TRUMP tariff issues.
RSI is high enough me to take a bear put spread on. credit call spread should work just as well.
any deep dips in apple below the 200 moving averages are worth buying in my opnion with unlevered shares.
analysts expect apple to earn 20.85 by 2031, and will make apple worth 400-500 in future.
but for now, its worth a bear spread for me. market is looking like a sellers market in short term. if Im wrong, i have defined risk by using the spread.
GBPUSD low of the week.Today, the GBP/USD price opened and traded lower into a 1-hour Bullish Imbalance (BISI) from yesterday, after sweeping Monday's liquidity. The DXY confirmed this move, with its price tapping into the daily Sell-side Imbalance (SIBI). The GBP/USD took out the Asian session low, and my target is the buy-side liquidity resting above the Asian session high at 1.26776 & 1.27000
NZD/USD is approaching a significant support zonemarked with a blue area, aligning closely with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This suggests a potential reaction from buyers in this region. If the price holds above this support, we might see a bullish reversal. However, if the level fails, further downside movement could follow. Keep an eye on price action signals around this area to confirm a possible bounce.
Opening (IRA): HIMS April 17th 28 Covered Call... for a 26.33 debit.
Comments: Throwing a few bones at this high IVR/IV (57.5/109.4) single name post-earnings, selling the ~84 delta, 2 x expected move call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 26.33/share
Max Profit: 1.67
ROC at Max: 6.34%
50% Max: .84
ROC at 50% Max: 3.17%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max/roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
PLUG- book value is 2x higher- Asset PlayPLUG has a stated tangible book value 2x from current price.
Fundamentals:
Its still a cashflow negative, money loser.
Analysts expect the loss to be only -0.60 this year, down from -1.22 last year.
Analysts dont expect positive earnings until 2029.
Technicals:
Rsi is low, and possible bullish divergence, because momentum trend my be shifting neutral from its bearish trend.
Sentiment:
sentiment is low, meme stock players dont seem to care about PLUG like they used to, and TRUMP has definitely switched the energy narrative to pro oil vs alternatives.
TRADE-
long low rsi, and target tangible book value. 100% exit if target or partial met.
I wont be in this one for a decade like Celsius or other growth stocks, because this is an asset play.
I tend to avoid money losing businesses, unless they are deeply below tangible book value. Ive done this trade before on PLUG, it worked, so Im happy to try it again.
Im long options in the money, target tangible book value around 3.00 price.
TLT longer term high...I do dowsing and checked on TLT today. My work is suggesting this is a longer term high and that TLT will move down to around $85.
I'm not the best at getting time frames for things to occur, but I ask anyway. At a minimum dates more often than not signal some kind of reversal - though it may only be short term. Anyway, I get $85 in about 21 days, or 3/19. I like TLT options. They're cheap and if TLT can keep from any close higher than these highs, I think good odds for down.
[ TimeLine ] Gold 20 February 2025Hello everyone,
I will be using the high and low price levels formed on the following dates as entry points for my trades:
February 20, 2025
We will wait for the price range from these candles to form as indicated with blue box. The trade entry will be triggered if the price breaks out of this range, with an additional buffer of 60 pips.
If the price moves against the initial position and hits the stop loss (SL), we will cut or switch the trade accordingly.
Renko percent//@version=5
indicator("Renko Percentage Change", overlay=true)
// Get the Renko brick size
brick_size = request.security(syminfo.ticker, "1D", high - low)
// Calculate percentage change
perc_change = (brick_size / close) * 100
// Plot the percentage change as a label
label.new(bar_index, high, text=str.tostring(perc_change, "#.##") + "%", color=color.green, textcolor=color.white, size=size.small)
BTC USD UPDATEWe have seen an excellent drop to lower levels. Now, we're waiting to reload some spot trades. We're looking for a clear bullish shift before entering any spot positions. However, short positions taken into these levels have performed well, as indicated by the green on the screen. Currently, we're observing market reactions. If market makers are genuinely bullish at these levels, we should see a rapid price delivery. This means we have potentially long weeks ahead, and we need to be v [atient to avoid missing any smoves. Wait for safe trading opportunities.