Goldman Sachs (GS): Long Position Opportunity Amid Stabilizing V
-Key Insights: Goldman Sachs (GS) stands to benefit from stabilizing market
volatility, as reflected by the declining VIX. While macroeconomic uncertainties
and earnings season pressures persist, GS has room for recovery with strong
potential upside driven by resilience in financial services and liquidity
movements.
-Price Targets:
-Next Week Targets (Long): T1=$515, T2=$530
-Stop Levels: S1=$500, S2=$485
-Recent Performance: GS has experienced mixed sentiment, with broader pressure
on financials underscoring recent trading activity. Although current price
information is unavailable, GS analysts are optimistic about near-term recovery
potential. Elevated market volatility weighing on sectors like healthcare and
technology continues to influence financial equities indirectly.
-Expert Analysis: Analysts suggest GS may see bullish action in the short term
as markets stabilize and corporations deliver earnings guidance. With the VIX
trending lower and macro risks easing, GS has a positive outlook tied to sector
earnings. However, caution remains due to broader geopolitical risks and
lingering effects from trade restrictions and inflation pressures.
-News Impact: Key events such as United Healthcare’s earnings revisions have
rippled across Dow components, pressuring financial stocks. Additionally,
Nvidia’s export control challenges highlight vulnerabilities in global markets,
which could indirectly affect GS’s portfolio exposure to related industries.
Anticipated volatility from Tesla and Alphabet’s earnings next week may also
influence market sentiment tied to GS’s stock movement.
Beyond Technical Analysis
Long-Term Opportunity Amid Volatility: Buy DIS on Weakness for R
-Key Insights: Disney faces near-term headwinds from weak consumer discretionary
performance, inflation risks, and macroeconomic uncertainties. However, its
strong intellectual property portfolio, diversified revenue streams, and
historical resilience in downturns make it an attractive long-term investment.
Investors should consider dollar-cost averaging to build positions during
valuation dips while monitoring quarterly updates for operational strategies and
park performance.
-Price Targets: Based on current market conditions and professional insights,
next week trading levels are as follows:
T1 (Target 1): $85.50
T2 (Target 2): $88.50
S1 (Stop 1): $78.50
S2 (Stop 2): $76.00
-Recent Performance: Disney has historically traded in line with consumer
discretionary sector trends, which have been under pressure due to inflation,
geopolitical risks, and reduced discretionary spending. Although recent
performance is not explicitly noted in the transcript, its stock tends to lag
during recessions before regaining momentum as macroeconomic conditions improve.
-Expert Analysis: Analysts emphasize quality stocks with durable fundamentals
amid volatility; Disney fits this profile due to its global brand dominance and
vast intellectual property portfolio. Recession expectations and housing
weakness may dampen consumer spending, affecting theme park attendance and
streaming subscriptions. Long-term investors will likely benefit from Disney’s
recovery driven by international market growth, cost management improvements,
and strong franchise popularity.
-News Impact: Trade wars and tariffs, especially in China, pose operational
challenges for merchandise and streaming expansion. Rising costs and consumer
spending constraints could impact hospitality revenues and park attendance,
particularly in key domestic locations like Florida and Texas. Geopolitical
developments and earnings updates will play a crucial role in dictating near-
term stock movement.
Amazon (AMZN): Long-Term Opportunity or Short-Term Risk?
-Key Insights: Amazon faces headwinds from bearish market sentiment, trade
issues, and cloud service competition. Near-term challenges stem from tariffs
impacting goods sold on its platform and slowing momentum in Amazon Web
Services. The upcoming earnings report may provide clarity on its resilience.
Valuation metrics suggest potential upside, but caution is advised.
-Price Targets: Next week price levels suggest possible long entry points near
support zones.
- Target 1 (T1): $180
- Target 2 (T2): $185
- Stop Level 1 (S1): $170
- Stop Level 2 (S2): $167
-Recent Performance: Amazon has recently underperformed, trading 1% lower amid
overall large-cap tech weakness. Broader market struggles, particularly in the
Nasdaq index, reflect bearish sentiment affecting growth-focused sectors. Trade
tensions and increased competition in cloud services are significant factors
weighing on its performance.
-Expert Analysis: Analysts highlight Amazon’s vulnerability to tariffs, which
could squeeze margins and affect merchants relying on imported goods from China.
AWS growth faces slowing dynamics as Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure gain
ground. While some experts argue Amazon’s valuation is becoming attractive with
a P/E ratio near 30, its risks warrant cautious optimism ahead of earnings.
-News Impact: The upcoming earnings report will be pivotal for assessing
Amazon’s adaptability to macroeconomic pressures. Tariff-related disruptions
could reveal more pain points in its retail segment. Simultaneously, competition
in cloud services and shifts in consumer demand may paint a clearer picture of
long-term growth potential. Competitive pressures from Google Cloud, which grew
30% year-over-year, indicate AWS’s dominance is under threat.
Apple Inc.: A Long Trade Opportunity for Next Week
- Key Insights: Apple has demonstrated relative strength amid broader market
weakness. Buyers have shown interest at key support levels ($193-$190),
reinforcing a bullish setup. Speculative interest in the options market
between $200-$220 indicates potential upside. The stock remains a promising
long trade idea, contingent on breaking resistance above $210-$221.
- Price Targets:
- T1: $210
- T2: $219
- S1: $190
- S2: $185
- Recent Performance: Apple continues to outperform peers like Amazon, Tesla,
and Nvidia as sector-wide weakness persists. The stock has rebounded off
critical support around $193, signaling accumulating buyer interest.
However, it remains capped below resistance at $210-$219, holding potential
for further upside.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts maintain long-term optimism for Apple, citing its
strong fundamentals, operational flexibility, and premium brand positioning.
Technical experts identify Apple as a speculative long idea, with gamma
exposure in the options market signaling interest between $200-$220.
- News Impact: Geopolitical concerns, including U.S.-China trade tensions, weigh
on Apple’s sentiment. Production costs have increased due to tariffs, yet
temporary exemptions highlight Apple's strategic resilience. Analysts advise
monitoring macro trends, including shifts in sector rotation, for continued
price momentum.
BTCUSDT- a double hunting!hello guys!
Bitcoin has been trading within a well-defined range, showing signs of consolidation after a sharp upward move. The price has recently broken below the range support (~$85,000), suggesting a liquidity hunt or fakeout scenario.
The sharp move down indicates a potential stop-loss sweep, targeting liquidity below the range. This is a classic "range bottom hunt" where smart money often drives the price lower to trigger retail stop-losses before a possible bounce back into the range or even continuation upwards.
📌 Key Zone to Watch:
– Support area around $83,000 – $82,500
– A strong reaction from this zone could confirm the liquidity grab and initiate a bullish reversal.
Outlook: Watching for a bottom wick and strong recovery as confirmation of a false breakdown. If buyers step in, we could see BTC reclaim the range and retest mid or upper boundaries.
SMR: The Nuclear Renaissance in Europe and the U.S.By Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
Following the impact of the war in Ukraine and the volatility of Russian gas supplies, Europe has accelerated its transition toward clean energy sources. By 2024, 48% of the EU's electricity mix already comes from renewables, 24% from nuclear power, and only 28% from fossil fuels. Spain is even further ahead, with renewables accounting for 55.8% of its electricity system. This evolution has led to a 59% reduction in CO₂ emissions and a 16% annual drop in the average price of electricity. However, the green transition faces challenges such as renewable intermittency, technological dependency, and a shortage of skilled personnel. In response, both Europe and the U.S. are reinforcing their commitment to nuclear energy, particularly through Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), a safer, more flexible, and more efficient technology.
SMRs offer key advantages: compact design, lower costs, and the ability to be installed near industrial centers or remote communities. In Europe, France is leading the charge through EDF, which expects to have its first NUWARD prototype operational before 2030. In the UK, Rolls-Royce is developing 470 MWe reactors with both public and private support, aiming to build up to 10 units by 2035. Meanwhile, Tractebel (ENGIE) is working on SMR engineering projects across Central and Eastern Europe.
In the U.S., SMR technology has gained momentum with support from the Department of Energy. NuScale Power was the first company to receive design approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and although its Utah project was canceled, it maintains agreements with Canada, Romania, and Ukraine. Also notable is Oklo Inc., backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, which went public in 2024 with an innovative compact reactor. Other key players include Constellation Energy and Vistra Corp., which operate nuclear facilities, as well as private firms TerraPower (founded by Bill Gates) and X-energy—both federally funded. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has funneled billions in incentives toward clean energy in the U.S., supporting both renewable and nuclear technologies. The transatlantic approach is clear: combine solar, wind, storage, and SMRs to achieve a clean, resilient, and competitive energy supply.
NuScale Power Corp. Analysis
On the hourly chart, NuScale entered an accumulation phase starting on October 24, 2024, pushing its price up to a peak of $32.30 by March 25, 2025. However, it has since lost momentum, largely due to the uncertainty triggered by U.S. tariff policies.
Currently, the stock is trending toward a key support zone around $16.75, a level that previously acted as resistance multiple times. The firmest support lies at $11.02, marking a recent low. The Point of Control (POC), which indicates the price level with the highest traded volume, currently stands at around $18.36—just above immediate resistance. The most active trading range is between $17.24 and $25.60.
Technical indicators show an RSI at 48.18%, suggesting slight overselling, though not extreme. Moving average crossovers are unclear, reflecting market indecision. This lack of bullish strength may prolong the current sideways movement. In the long term, if market sentiment improves and regulatory tensions ease, the stock could recover toward the mid-range zone of around $21.00.
Publicly Traded Energy Companies: Renewables and SMRs
Nuclear Energy and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
• EDF – 🇫🇷 Euronext Paris: EDF
• Tractebel (ENGIE) – 🇧🇪 Euronext Paris: ENGI
• Rolls-Royce SMR – 🇬🇧 LSE: RR
• NuScale Power – 🇺🇸 NYSE: SMR
• Oklo Inc. – 🇺🇸 NYSE: OKLO
• Constellation Energy – 🇺🇸 NASDAQ: CEG
• Vistra Corp. – 🇺🇸 NYSE: VST
• Cameco Corp (Uranium) – 🇨🇦 NYSE: CCJ
Private Companies to Watch
• TerraPower – 🇺🇸 (Bill Gates, Natrium Reactor)
• X-energy – 🇺🇸 (Xe-100 Reactor, DOE-funded)
Renewables and Energy Storage
• Iberdrola – 🇪🇸 BME: IBE
• Acciona Energía – 🇪🇸 BME: ANE
• Ørsted – 🇩🇰 CPH: ORSTED
• Enel – 🇮🇹 BIT: ENEL
• Siemens Energy – 🇩🇪 ETR: ENR
• Vestas Wind Systems – 🇩🇰 CPH: VWS
• First Solar – 🇺🇸 NASDAQ: FSLR
• NextEra Energy – 🇺🇸 NYSE: NEE
• Plug Power – 🇺🇸 NASDAQ: PLUG
• Bloom Energy – 🇺🇸 NYSE: BE
In this context, investment opportunities are expanding rapidly. Companies like EDF, Rolls-Royce, NuScale, Oklo, and Iberdrola are well positioned to lead the energy transition. The green revolution is no longer just about renewables—the new energy era is also nuclear.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
NAS100USD: Bearish Continuation After FVG RebalanceGreetings Traders!
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, the institutional order flow remains bearish, continuing the momentum established during last week’s trading sessions. In alignment with this directional bias, we are strategically focused on identifying high-probability bearish opportunities.
KEY OBSERVATIONS:
Sustained Bearish Order Flow:
Institutional behavior continues to reflect a bearish narrative, suggesting that smart money remains committed to driving price lower.
Rebalancing a Fair Value Gap (FVG):
Price is currently rebalancing a notable fair value gap—an internal range inefficiency—providing the perfect confluence zone for bearish setups. This rebalancing typically precedes a draw on external liquidity.
Targeting External Range Liquidity:
As the market rebalances internal inefficiencies (FVGs, order blocks), it subsequently seeks external range liquidity such as sell stops, liquidity pools, and engineered lows. This is a fundamental principle of institutional price delivery.
TRADING PLAN:
Entry Consideration:
Monitor price action within the fair value gap for confirmation of bearish intent. This zone serves as an internal liquidity area, optimal for institutional order execution.
Profit Targets:
Focus on external liquidity resting below previous lows—particularly sell stops and liquidity pools. These levels represent the logical draw where institutions aim to finalize order pairing and take profit.
By following the institutional flow, we align ourselves with smart money practices, improving our precision and probability of success. Stay patient and disciplined—confirmation is key!
Its good to be back,
The_Architect
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CTMI Strategy – Early Access AlertLooking for clean, confident, and consistent signals?
The CTMI Strategy is now LIVE !
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First 10 users to comment “ CTMI Access ” get 7-days free access.
See chart for real results.
Let the strategy do the heavy lifting.
CTMI Strategy – Early Access AlertLooking for clean, confident, and consistent signals?
The CTMI Strategy is now LIVE !
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See chart for real results.
Let the strategy do the heavy lifting.
COLLECTING CONFLUENCE across multiple timeframes is your job!!!!All the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!!
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Bitcoin crash back to $74,000I hope the chart is self explanatory as don't want to make this long. I added some trendlines for the visual learners.
Bitcoin did not meets its monthly correction target of $74000, we pump right before...Its not very wise to buy randomly- You want to buy at a key level for higher probability...If the bull run ought to continue. Don't you think for such a big move its more likely to react from important key levels where most the demand is waiting?
2ndly the weekly tf is still bearish. We flipped bullish on daily but price is high and struggling to clear 85k.
4hr already flipped back bearish.
Next point is that there is still a lot of uncertainty around tariffs, while market is not reacting to tariffs news as strongly as it did before its still factor of uncertainty. An important factor
Next point. In yesterdays Speech by Jerome powell he clearly stated that inflation likely to rise due to tariffs he also clearly stated they not ready to jump in and 'save the stock market' And he said they not looking to make any adjustments to interest rates at the moment. They still playing it cautious-waiting on more data.
For me the likely bottom signal when it comes to fundamental will be the lowering of interest rates.
On the bullish side, gold been making ATHs on a regular now and many are starting to speculate that bitcoin is next...that's a possibility but so far we haven't seen any strong sign of that narrative playing out in the chart.
I think this is 1 final trap before the actual continuation of the bull-run. For invalidation -I would like to see a very clear breakout out on the day and weekly closing above 89k with volume confirmation.
I called bitcoin top from December of last year with target of $74000. And its still in effect.
Now, let's see if am right again. I believe I am.
AUDUSD Wyckoff RedistributionThe pair seems as if it may be looking to continue the downtrend. I have identified a possible redistribution pattern. The recent "upthrust" could be the last up move that is typically used to trap buyers. Could be too soon to tell but keep an eye on price falling back under resistance and preliminary supply on strong sell volume for confirmation.
Can AI Forge America's Next Shield?Palantir Technologies finds itself strategically positioned at the forefront of a potentially transformative U.S. defense initiative, the "Golden Dome" missile defense system. As a crucial partner in a consortium reportedly led by SpaceX and including Anduril Industries, Palantir is a leading contender for significant involvement in this multi-billion-dollar project. Golden Dome aims to establish a next-generation, networked shield against advanced missile threats, emphasizing rapid development and integration of space-based sensors and diverse defensive capabilities, moving beyond traditional procurement timelines.
Within this ambitious framework, Palantir's role leverages its core expertise in AI and large-scale data analytics. The company is anticipated to provide the essential software platform required to process and interpret data from potentially hundreds or thousands of tracking satellites, creating real-time situational awareness and enabling coordinated responses across the complex defense network. This involvement could also benefit from innovative procurement approaches, such as SpaceX's proposed subscription model, potentially securing stable, long-term revenue streams for Palantir.
Recent successes underscore Palantir's readiness for such a demanding role. The rapid adoption of its Maven Smart System by NATO validates its AI capabilities in high-stakes military environments, while its partnership with Vatn Systems demonstrates the utility of its platform in scaling and modernizing defense manufacturing. Securing a key position in the Golden Dome would represent a major strategic victory, solidifying Palantir's ascent as a disruptive force in the defense technology sector and signaling significant growth potential as it helps shape the future of national security.
Behind the Curtain: Bitcoin’s Surprising Macro Triggers1. Introduction
Bitcoin Futures (BTC), once viewed as a niche or speculative product, have now entered the macroeconomic spotlight. Traded on the CME and embraced by institutions through ETF exposure, BTC Futures reflect not only digital asset sentiment—but also evolving reactions to traditional economic forces.
While many traders still associate Bitcoin with crypto-native catalysts, machine learning reveals a different story. Today, BTC responds dynamically to macro indicators like Treasury yields, labor data, and liquidity trends.
In this article, we apply a Random Forest Regressor to historical data to uncover the top economic signals impacting Bitcoin Futures returns across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes—some of which may surprise even seasoned macro traders.
2. Understanding Bitcoin Futures Contracts
Bitcoin Futures provide institutional-grade access to BTC price movements—with efficient clearing and capital flexibility.
o Standard BTC Futures (BTC):
Tick Size: $5 per tick = $25 per tick per contract
Initial Margin: ≈ $102,000 (subject to volatility)
o Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT):
Contract Size: 1/50th the BTC size
Tick Size: $5 = $0.50 per tick per contract
Initial Margin: ≈ $2,000
BTC and MBT trade nearly 24 hours per day, five days a week, offering deep liquidity and expanding participation across hedge funds, asset managers, and active retail traders.
3. Daily Timeframe: Short-Term Macro Sensitivity
Bitcoin’s volatility makes it highly reactive to daily data surprises, especially those affecting liquidity and rates.
Velocity of Money (M2): This lesser-watched indicator captures how quickly money circulates. Rising velocity can signal renewed risk-taking, often leading to short-term BTC movements. A declining M2 velocity implies tightening conditions, potentially pressuring BTC as risk appetite contracts.
10-Year Treasury Yield: One of the most sensitive intraday indicators for BTC. Yield spikes make holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin potentially less attractive. Declining yields could signal easing financial conditions, inviting capital back into crypto.
Labor Force Participation Rate: While not a headline number, sudden shifts in labor force data can affect consumer confidence and policy tone—especially if they suggest a weakening economy. Bitcoin could react positively when data implies future easing.
4. Weekly Timeframe: Labor-Driven Market Reactions
As BTC increasingly correlates with traditional markets, weekly economic data—especially related to labor—has become a mid-term directional driver.
Initial Jobless Claims: Spikes in this metric can indicate rising economic stress. BTC could react defensively to rising claims, but may rally on drops, especially when seen as signs of stability returning.
ISM Manufacturing Employment: This metric reflects hiring strength in the manufacturing sector. Slowing employment growth here could correlate with broader economic softening—something BTC traders can track as part of their risk sentiment gauge.
Continuing Jobless Claims: Tracks the persistence of unemployment. Sustained increases can shake risk markets and pull BTC lower, while ongoing declines suggest an improving outlook, which could help BTC resume upward movement.
5. Monthly Timeframe: Macro Structural Themes
Institutional positioning in Bitcoin increasingly aligns with high-impact monthly data. These indicators help shape longer-term views on liquidity, rate policy, and capital allocation:
Unemployment Rate: A rising unemployment rate could shift market expectations toward a more accommodative monetary policy. Bitcoin, often viewed as a hedge against fiat debasement and monetary easing, can benefit from this shift. In contrast, a low and steady unemployment rate may pressure BTC as it reinforces the case for higher interest rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield (again): On a monthly basis, this repeats and become a cornerstone macro theme.
Initial Jobless Claims (again): Rather than individual weekly prints, the broader trend reveals structural shifts in the labor market.
6. Style-Based Strategy Insights
Bitcoin traders often span a wide range of styles—from short-term volatility hunters to long-duration macro allocators. Aligning indicator focus by style is essential:
o Day Traders
Zero in on M2 velocity and 10-Year Yield to time intraday reversals or continuation setups.
Quick pivots in bond yields or liquidity metrics could coincide with BTC spikes.
o Swing Traders
Use Initial Jobless Claims and ISM Employment trends to track momentum for 3–10 day moves.
Weekly data may help catch directional shifts before they appear in price charts.
o Position Traders
Monitor macro structure via Unemployment Rate, 10Y Yield, and Initial Claims.
These traders align portfolios based on broader economic trends, often holding exposure through cycles.
7. Risk Management Commentary
Bitcoin Futures demand tactical risk management:
Use Micro BTC Contracts (MBT) to scale in or out of trades precisely.
Expect volatility around macro data releases—set wider stops with volatility-adjusted sizing.
Avoid over-positioning near major Fed meetings, CPI prints, or labor reports.
Unlike legacy markets, BTC can make multi-percent intraday moves. A robust risk plan isn’t optional—it’s survival.
8. Conclusion
Bitcoin has matured into a macro-responsive asset. What once moved on hype now responds to the pulse of the global economy. From M2 liquidity flows and interest rate expectations, to labor market stability, BTC Futures reflect institutional sentiment shaped by data.
BTC’s role in the modern portfolio is still evolving. But one thing is clear: macro matters. And those who understand which indicators truly move Bitcoin can trade with more confidence and precision.
Stay tuned for the next edition of the "Behind the Curtain" series as we decode the economic machinery behind another CME futures product.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.