Beyond Technical Analysis
Weekly Market Analysis - 29th March 2025 (DXY & EURUSD Only)Here is my DXY & EURUSD analysis for the upcoming week and month.
I share what I think will happen in terms of anticipating price using the concepts of liquidity and efficiency as mostly taught by ICT.
I hope you find it useful in your perspective of the market.
- R2F Trading
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast | Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish MoveIntroduction
This Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 1-Day Chart Analysis highlights a critical market development: the breakdown of a Rising Wedge pattern, signaling a potential bearish trend. After reaching a new all-time high (ATH) resistance, BTC has shown weakness, confirming a possible reversal. This analysis covers key levels, trend structure, trading setups, and market psychology for traders looking to capitalize on this move.
1️⃣ Understanding the Chart Structure
Rising Wedge Pattern – A Classic Bearish Reversal
A Rising Wedge is a bearish technical formation that develops when prices rise within a narrowing range. It typically features:
✅ Higher Highs & Higher Lows: Suggesting bullish momentum, but the price action becomes weaker over time.
✅ Converging Trendlines: Showing a loss of buyer strength as each rally fails to make significant new highs.
✅ Volume Decline: As the wedge matures, volume decreases, confirming reduced buying interest.
✅ Breakdown Confirmation: A sharp drop below the lower trendline validates the bearish move.
In this case, BTC followed all the classic wedge characteristics, and its breakdown has initiated a potential major correction.
2️⃣ Key Levels & Market Dynamics
🔵 Resistance Level + All-Time High (ATH) (~$110K-$115K)
BTC reached its ATH resistance zone but failed to hold above it.
The red arrow indicates the rejection at the top, where strong selling pressure emerged.
Bulls attempted multiple breakouts but failed, leading to a reversal.
🟢 Support Zone (~$78K-$80K) – Weak Retest Before Breakdown
The price initially bounced off this support but struggled to hold gains.
The blue support level highlights a key zone where BTC found temporary stability.
A weak rally followed, but the price got rejected again, confirming the bearish trend.
🔻 Major Bearish Target (~$48,920)
Using the measured move theory, the projected drop extends to $48,920, a strong historical support.
The black arrow points to the expected downward trajectory.
3️⃣ Trading Setup & Risk Management
🔽 Bearish Trade Setup (Short Position Strategy)
For traders looking to short BTC based on this pattern, here’s an optimal trade setup:
🔸 Entry Point: Around $85K-$90K (post-retest of breakdown)
🔸 Stop Loss: Above $100K (invalidation of the bearish setup)
🔸 Take Profit Targets:
TP1: $75K (minor support)
TP2: $60K (psychological level)
TP3: $48,920 (final bearish target)
Alternative Scenario – Bullish Recovery?
If BTC reclaims $100K+ with high volume, the bearish thesis is invalidated, signaling a continuation of the uptrend.
A break above ATH ($115K) would confirm new bullish strength.
4️⃣ Market Sentiment & Psychological Factors
📉 Bearish Sentiment Strengthens:
Rising Wedges often cause a bull trap, where buyers expect new highs but get caught in a reversal.
Current price action suggests sellers are gaining control.
⚠️ Key Risks for Traders:
False breakdowns can occur if BTC sees unexpected bullish news.
Keeping an eye on fundamental developments (ETF approvals, macroeconomic conditions, etc.) is essential.
Conclusion – BTC Heading for a Deeper Correction?
Bitcoin’s Rising Wedge breakdown strongly suggests a continued bearish trend.
Short opportunities are ideal below $90K, with downside targets near GETTEX:48K -$50K.
If BTC regains $100K+, bearish outlook is invalid.
📊 Trading Recommendation: Monitor price action closely and adjust risk management accordingly!
Would you like me to tweak any part of this analysis? 😊
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis – Next Week Big Move?The daily chart of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) presents a well-structured triangle pattern breakout, a strong uptrend, and a critical resistance zone near all-time highs (ATH). The price action suggests that gold is in a bullish phase but approaching a key decision point where it could either break higher or face a temporary pullback.
This analysis provides a detailed breakdown of the pattern, key levels, potential scenarios, and trading strategies for the coming week.
1. Technical Chart Breakdown
A. Triangle Pattern Breakout (Bullish Continuation)
The chart shows a symmetrical triangle formation, which typically signals a consolidation phase before a major price movement.
After a period of accumulation within the triangle, gold broke out upwards, confirming a bullish continuation pattern.
This breakout was supported by strong volume and buying pressure, reinforcing the trend strength.
B. Trendline & Support Levels (Key Areas for Buyers)
A rising trendline has been acting as dynamic support, confirming that the market remains in a bullish structure.
Major Support Levels:
$3,000 – A psychological support level that may act as a bounce zone in case of rejection at resistance.
$2,885 – A well-defined horizontal support level, previously tested multiple times.
If the price falls below $2,885, it could signal a trend reversal or a deeper correction.
2. Key Price Levels & Market Sentiment
A. Resistance & Target Levels (Where Sellers Might Step In)
Primary Resistance Zone: $3,137 - $3,150
This level represents a combination of all-time high (ATH), historical resistance, and a key breakout target.
If the price breaks and holds above this zone, it could trigger further upside towards $3,200 - $3,250.
However, if sellers dominate at this level, a pullback or correction could occur.
B. Stop-Loss & Risk Management Considerations
Traders should be cautious around the resistance zone and place stop-loss levels strategically to manage risk.
Stop-Loss Suggestions:
For Long Trades: Below $3,000 (to protect against fake breakouts).
For Short Trades: Above $3,150 (if price rejects resistance and starts a reversal).
3. Trading Strategy for Next Week
Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout & Continuation
If gold breaks and sustains above $3,137, it will confirm a bullish continuation.
Entry Strategy: Look for a retest of the breakout level ($3,100 - $3,137) before entering long positions.
Profit Targets:
First Target: $3,200
Second Target: $3,250+
Stop-Loss: Below $3,000, to protect against sudden reversals.
Scenario 2: Rejection at Resistance & Pullback
If gold fails to break $3,137 and forms a bearish rejection candle, it may indicate a short-term pullback.
Short Entry Strategy: Wait for confirmation of rejection with bearish price action signals (e.g., bearish engulfing, long upper wick).
Downside Targets:
First Target: $3,000
Second Target: $2,885 (major support)
Stop-Loss: Above $3,150, to avoid being trapped in a false breakdown.
Scenario 3: Bearish Reversal (Break Below $2,885)
If gold falls below $2,885, it could signal a potential trend reversal.
Short Trade Setup: Enter below $2,885, targeting $2,800 - $2,750 in the medium term.
Stop-Loss: Above $2,900, in case of a false breakdown.
4. Indicators & Confirmation Signals
A. Volume & Candlestick Patterns
Watch for high volume during breakouts to confirm strength.
Candlestick patterns such as bullish engulfing, hammer (for support bounces), or shooting star (for resistance rejection) can provide strong confirmation signals.
B. RSI (Relative Strength Index) & Overbought Conditions
If RSI is above 70, it could indicate that gold is overbought, increasing the likelihood of a pullback.
If RSI stays above 50 but below 70, it confirms bullish strength.
C. Moving Averages for Trend Confirmation
50-day and 200-day moving averages can act as additional support and resistance zones.
If the price is above both moving averages, it confirms the bullish trend.
5. Conclusion – What to Watch for Next Week?
✅ If price breaks and holds above $3,137 → Expect continuation towards $3,200 - $3,250.
✅ If price rejects at $3,137 → Watch for a pullback towards $3,000 or $2,885 for re-entry.
✅ If price drops below $2,885 → Expect deeper correction with a shift in trend structure.
📌 Key Takeaway: Gold remains bullish, but traders should watch the resistance level at $3,137 closely for confirmation of a breakout or a possible reversal. Risk management is crucial in case of unexpected market shifts.
Would you like me to add more insights using Fibonacci levels or historical trends? 📊🚀
BTCUSDT Confirmed Bearish Break – Eyeing $82,500 SupportDescription:
Bitcoin has confirmed a bearish breakdown from the rising trendline support on the 1-hour chart, suggesting potential downside continuation. The price broke below the key ascending structure and retested the zone, which now appears to be acting as resistance. This bearish retest + rejection adds confluence to a sell setup.
Key Observations:
🔹 Trendline Break: Clear violation of the ascending trendline.
🔹 Retest & Rejection: Price rejected near $85,500–$86,000 (previous support turned resistance).
🔹 Bearish Market Structure: Lower highs and lower lows forming after the breakdown.
🔹 Bearish Target: Next key support lies near $82,500.
Bias: Bearish
Trade Setup:
📉 Entry: Below $84,200
📉 Target 1: $82,500
📉 Target 2 (Aggressive): $81,000
🛑 Stop Loss: Above $86,000 (retest zone)
Conclusion:
BTCUSDT has shifted its structure from bullish to bearish with a confirmed trendline breakdown and retest. Unless bulls reclaim $86K+, downside continuation seems likely.
$DXY IdeaWhen analyzing the weekly DXY chart, we identify the presence of two CRTs: one bullish and one bearish. However, the bearish CRT has a low probability of success due to the candle formation and the fact that the price is still in a discounted region within the range.
Given this, our initial expectation is for the price to drop at the beginning of the week to seek liquidity in the equilibrium region of the daily range, which coincides with the 50% level of the bearish CRT. This movement may act as a correction within the predominant trend, pushing the price up toward the premium region of the weekly range. From that point, we will once again look for selling opportunities, as the market may resume its downward movement.
Based on this analysis, we initially seek selling opportunities down to the equilibrium region. Once this level is reached, we will wait for confirmation of a bullish reversal to look for buying opportunities up to the 50% mark of the bullish CRT.
Same price as dot com bubble $VRSNSame price as dot com bubble $VRSN. Cup and handle? TD9? Break out or break down?
Bearish Divergence Across Multiple Timeframes on XAUUSD – PotentGold (XAUUSD) has shown strong bullish momentum recently, reaching an all-time high of $3,085.345. However, there are clear signs of bearish divergence forming across the daily, 1-hour, and 15-minute timeframes, suggesting the bullish momentum may be weakening.
Technical Breakdown:
📅 Daily Chart (1D)
Price is making higher highs.
RSI is making lower highs – a classic bearish divergence.
RSI currently at 73.87, in the overbought zone, indicating exhaustion.
🕐 1-Hour Chart (1H)
Similar structure: price climbing while RSI is trending downward.
RSI around 62.27, showing divergence from the new highs in price action.
🕒 15-Minute Chart (15M)
Intraday bearish divergence continues.
Price is riding an upward trendline, while RSI forms lower highs.
If the trendline breaks, it could lead to a swift correction.
Bias: Bearish (Short-Term)
Trade Idea:
If price breaks below the $3,070–$3,060 support zone (trendline on lower timeframes), we could see a pullback toward the following levels:
📉 Target 1: $3,032
📉 Target 2: $3,003
📉 Target 3: $2,980 (Previous consolidation area)
🛑 Stop Loss: Above the recent high at $3,090
Conclusion:
While the macro trend is bullish, the confluence of RSI bearish divergence across multiple timeframes hints at a potential short-term reversal or correction. Risk management is key as Gold remains fundamentally strong.
Let the price action confirm the divergence via a breakdown before entering a short position.
Market Breakdown for OliA run through NZDCAD that I stayed out of and also losses I avoided. General update.
Will Ethereum Survive This Critical Level?Ethereum (ETH/USDT) on the 12-hour timeframe is currently displaying a strong downtrend structure, highlighted by a well-defined rounded top pattern and a descending arc acting as dynamic resistance. Since reaching its peak above $4,000, ETH has consistently printed lower highs and lower lows, respecting this curved resistance line.
The price is currently trading around $1,887, testing a significant horizontal support zone near $1,880–$1,900. This level has held multiple times in the past and now serves as a crucial line in the sand for bulls. If this support fails to hold, Ethereum could see further downside toward the next demand zones around $1,700 or even $1,600.
The RSI indicator stands at 36.11, which suggests that momentum is weak and the asset is nearing oversold territory. While this can often lead to short-term relief bounces, the overall trend remains bearish unless ETH breaks above the descending arc and reclaims key resistance levels near $2,050. A bullish scenario would require strong buying volume and a structure shift to higher highs
A meme stock, at value prices?It’s not often that you see a meme tier stock trading at deep enough value to attract the attention of highly successful long term investors. This is a classic euthanasia coaster stock from well before Covid, with massive pump & dump patterns all the way back to 2002 that continue to echo in the price chart and are absolutely going to continue appearing. The company made its meme status official by acquiring the intellectual property assets of Bed Bath & Beyond in mid 2023.
When a meme stock becomes a value stock, it’s time to bid.
If the company can start to turn around its failing business, which is very possible in this cyclical furniture industry, this will ignite a retail trader mania that will create massive momentum and continue rising at faster and faster speeds. The long term target for Byon is $30. This trade could take a few years to play out but I think it's a great idea if you can be patient. I don't have too much of a position yet, and I will only be buying more if the price can start going up fast and confirming that I'm correct.
Gold dropping expectancythe same pattern golds did the last trading month, is the same im expecting around new month opening price (april), sellsideliquidity drop and then a pretty good distribution on po3
sell-buy-Great Sell!Hello all. market needs at least a new historical low. lets see what happen. do you agree? leave a comment of ur idea (wink)
GOLD Long opportunity from 3,050 or 3,020 back to ATH'sThis week, my outlook on gold remains strongly bullish. Price has once again reached its all-time high (ATH) and broken structure to the upside, leaving behind new demand zones that present potential buying opportunities.
The first key area of interest is the nearby 6-hour demand zone. While not the most ideal setup, I will be monitoring how price reacts once it mitigates this level.
Additionally, there is a 15-hour demand zone positioned lower, offering a more favorable entry at a discounted price. This zone was responsible for the break of structure to the upside, making it a strong area of interest. If price reaches this level, I expect a slowdown followed by a buildup of bullish momentum.
Confluences for XAU/USD Buys:
Price has broken structure to the upside on the higher timeframes.
Clean 6-hour and 15-hour demand zones remain unmitigated.
Gold has been consistently bullish across both lower and higher timeframes.
DXY is trending bearish, reinforcing gold’s bullish bias due to their inverse correlation.
Note: There is some liquidity resting below in the form of an equal low and a small trendline. I will wait for confirmation in these areas before making any decisions.
I Cracked The Bearish Code on Copper Using COTCopper is setup for sells based on fundamental underlying conditions.
We also see confirmations from accumulation measurements, seasonals & cycle analysis.
[ TimeLine ] Gold 24-25 March 2025Hello everyone,
I will be using the high and low price levels formed on March 24 and 25 , 2025 (Monday and Tuesday), as entry points for my trades.
We will wait for the price range from these candles to form, as indicated by the green lines.
The trade entry will be triggered if the price breaks out of this range, with an additional buffer of 60 pips.
If the price moves against the initial position and hits the stop loss (SL), we will cut or switch the trade accordingly and double the position size to recover losses.
📉📈 Below is the chart with the estimated Hi-Lo range of March 24 and 25, 2025. You can copy the unique code and add it to the TradingView URL.
TV/x/hjaa6bzW/
TIA: 40% Crash in Sight – What's Next?TIA recently lost its strong $4 support, and that level is now acting as resistance. For the past two months, the price hasn’t been able to climb back above $4, leaving us with one burning question: Is more blood on the table?
Broken Support: TIA has given up its $4 support, which now serves as resistance.
Looking at November 2024: The low from November 2024 was around $1.9. Revisiting that level could provide us with a high-probability long trade.
Trade Setup Opportunity
Entry Point: Set an alarm for the $1.9 low. A successful bounce here would signal a potential long trade opportunity.
Target & Reward: With the goal of targeting the $3 level, this trade could offer a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 5:1.
Implication: If the $1.9 level is revisited and holds, we could be looking at a scenario with roughly 40% more downside in the current trend—but also a setup for a low-risk long if the bounce holds.
XAUUSD/GOLD PROJECTIONXAUUSD/GOLD projection in the near term: Be cautious of a fast correction, as the price hasn't touched the $3,059 area of strong support.
They Shut Down the AlgosYou can see in the chart that during the initial Feb/March drop that the algos were still running, and we'd see at least a small bounce when MFI/RSI got oversold, however you can see that they shut the algos down yesterday, MFI totally flatlined for 2 days which is something that did not happen on the initial drop.
So basically, there's no point for me to plot 3 hr charts until they turn the algos back on. I will post when that happens.
Made a bunch of mistakes this week, but managed to break even daytrading XLF puts twice today. XLF was lagging the market a bit which made it easier to trade.
NZD_CHF BEARISH BREAKOUT|
✅NZD_CHF made a bearish
Breakout of the key horizontal level
and the breakout is confirmed so we
are bearish biased and we will be expecting a
Further bearish move down
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
ETH Did his last kiss! Huge upmove inComing I share my thoughts and ideas rarely
I always draw my lines to find out how the majority of people see the charts.
dont want to explain more , but now I think market makers tried their best to show market is bearish , ( as a prove check the fear and greed index ) which made wounder if these prices really are fairly valued or not ?!
anyway , maybe its time for eth to reclaim some shares from market dominance :)
will update this soon ...
The short-term short positions in gold are now yielding profits!Currently, the market continues to maintain a range - bound oscillation pattern. In the short term, there are no conditions for a significant unilateral upward or downward movement. In terms of short - term trading, the price is currently trading at $3032. From the perspective of intraday trading strategies, this price level can be regarded as an entry point for short positions. Today, special attention should be paid to the $3020 level, which serves as the daily demarcation line between bulls and bears. If the price drops from a high level as expected, effectively breaks below the $3020 level and closes below this price, the short - side is expected to witness a sharp acceleration in the bottom - seeking trend.
Since the week began, considering global economic trends and gold market volatility, we've steadily shorted gold. All signals, from our in - depth analyses, have proven accurate. I'll keep giving accurate signals, factoring in market changes.
XAUUSD
sell@3030-3035
tp:3025-3015
I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate for a whole month in a row. If you also need them, please click on the link below the article to obtain them.
Nike (NKE) Game Plan: Is Now the Perfect Time to Buy?1. Technical Analysis March 2025
Nike’s stock ( NYSE:NKE ) is currently trading near a 52-week low of $63.19, signaling a bearish trend driven by weak earnings and macroeconomic challenges.
• Moving Averages: The 50-day MA is below the 200-day MA (death cross), confirming a long-term downtrend.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Near 30, indicating oversold conditions and a possible short-term rebound.
• Support & Resistance:
• Key support: ~$60 (historical demand zone)
• Key resistance: ~$75–$80 (previous consolidation area)
• Volume Analysis: High selling pressure, but institutional investors may step in at lower levels.
2. Fundamental Analysis March 2025
Nike remains a global leader in the sportswear industry, but recent headwinds have impacted on its financial performance.
Key Financial Metrics (Q3 2025)
• Revenue: $11.3 billion (-9% YoY)
• Net Income: Declining due to lower sales and margin compression
• EPS: Lower than expected, prompting downward revisions by analysts
• Dividend Yield: ~2.3%, with 23 consecutive years of dividend increases
• Debt-to-Equity Ratio: ~0.6, indicating moderate leverage
• Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Lower than historical averages (~18–22x), making it relatively undervalued compared to its long-term trends
📈 Strengths:
• Brand Power & Innovation: Nike’s brand remains dominant, and new product lines (e.g., Pegasus Premium, Vomero 18) are receiving positive feedback.
• Global Reach & Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Shift: Strong e-commerce presence, which could improve margins over time.
• Dividend Growth: 23 consecutive years of increases make Nike attractive to long-term income investors.
📉 Weaknesses & Risks:
• Declining Sales: A 9% revenue drop YoY, with a 17% decline in China—a crucial market.
• Tariff Concerns: New U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports could impact profit margins.
• Competitive Landscape: Adidas, Puma, and newer brands (On Running, Hoka) are gaining market share.
• Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Consumer spending on discretionary goods remains weak.
3. 5-Year Price Prediction (2025–2030)
Year Price Range Prediction
2025 $55 – $85 (high volatility, potential recovery)
2026 $75 – $100 (rebound if sales improve)
2027 $90 – $120 (growth phase, innovation & DTC strategy gains traction)
2028 $110 – $140 (bullish market conditions, brand strength)
2029 $130 – $170 (potential all-time highs if fundamentals align)
2030 $150 – $200 (long-term upside if Nike maintains market dominance)
Conclusion: Buy, Hold, or Sell?
• Short-Term (2025–2026): High risk, potential upside if Nike stabilizes its sales and margins.
• Mid-to-Long Term (2027–2030): Likely strong recovery, given Nike’s brand strength, innovation, and historical growth.
• Best Strategy: Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) for long-term investors; traders may wait for a confirmed reversal.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Stock market investments carry risks, including the loss of capital. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
