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Bitcoin Or Gold? Real Safe Haven In Middle East tension When the world shakes, where does money go— Bitcoin or gold ? You may think crypto is the ultimate safe haven… but data tells a different story. This breakdown compares digital dreams vs. physical trust —with charts, tools, and the psychology behind every move. Hello✌ Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. 🎯 Analytical Insight on Bitcoin: Contrary to common expectations, Bitcoin has shown relative resilience amid recent geopolitical tensions, refraining from a sharp sell-off. This price behavior signals a potential shift in market psychology—something I’ll explore further in an upcoming educational post. Based on my previous analyses, I continue to anticipate an upward breakout above the $110K resistance zone in the current structure. Now , let's dive into the educational section, 📌 Gold: The Legacy of Trust For thousands of years, gold has been the go-to safe asset. In wars, inflation, sanctions, and crashes—it remains the mental anchor of value. Tangible, historic, and out of government control. 🪙 Bitcoin: Revolutionary but Unstable Bitcoin promises freedom, decentralization, and anti-inflation. But during actual crises, trust wavers. High volatility, regulatory risk, and lack of a long history make investors hesitate when fear hits hard. 🛠️ TradingView Tools That Reveal Where Smart Money Flows One reason TradingView stands out is its wide set of tools that help you track market psychology—not just price action. When it comes to analyzing the Bitcoin-vs-Gold battle during global crises (like the Iran-Israel war), these tools are essential: Correlation Coefficient: This shows how closely BTC and gold move together. In panic moments, it helps reveal where the real trust is flowing. On-Balance Volume (OBV): Key for spotting where big money is headed. If OBV on gold rises while BTC’s falls, smart money isn’t betting on crypto just yet. Fear & Greed Index Logic (DIY): While not a native TradingView tool, you can mimic it by combining volatility and volume indicators to reflect market emotion. Overlay XAUUSD and BTCUSD: Place both on a single chart with “percentage scale” enabled. You’ll see exactly which one holds up better during chaos. Marking Geo-Political Events: Tag key events (like missile strikes or sanctions) on your charts. Track how Bitcoin and gold react immediately after. 📊 How Investors React in Crisis During events like an Iran-Israel war, data shows money often flows into gold—not BTC. When panic peaks, people run toward the “known,” not the “new.” 🧠 The Illusion of Crypto as Safe Haven We want to believe BTC is the new gold. But the human mind—under threat—defaults to ancient instincts. Fear doesn’t innovate. It runs to what it knows: shiny, physical, historical gold. 💡 When Will Bitcoin Truly Compete? When the next generation fully embraces digital assets. When institutions store BTC alongside gold. When BTC no longer crashes on scary headlines—that’s when the shift becomes real. ⚠️ Lessons from War Wars reveal that markets don’t behave rationally in fear. Even if Bitcoin makes sense on paper, emotion drives flows. Right now, that flow still favors gold. 🔍 What to Watch Next If, during a future conflict, Bitcoin drops less—or even rises while gold does—you may be witnessing a turning point. Until then, keep tracking both with your TradingView setups. 🧭 Final Takeaway Gold still owns the trust game in a crisis. Bitcoin is on its way but hasn’t crossed that psychological line. If you’re a smart trader, know how to read both—and move before the herd does. ✨ Need a little love! We put so much love and time into bringing you useful content & your support truly keeps us going. don’t be shy—drop a comment below. We’d love to hear from you! 💛 Big thanks, Mad Whale 🐋 📜Please remember to do your own research before making any investment decisions. Also, don’t forget to check the disclaimer at the bottom of each post for more details.
Education
by MadWhale
8
Path Toward 1.20 Still in Play but there's a catch....The pair has recently completed a major technical breakout by moving above a long standing trendline that dates back to the 2008 high. For more than 15 yearsthis trendline acted as strong resistance, repeatedly rejecting bullish attempts. The latest move did not just break through this resistance. It returned to retest the level around the 1.1450 to 1.1500 area and held with near perfect precision. This successful retest signaled a structural shift, turning former resistance into solid support. Since then, the pair has remained within a steep upward channel, forming higher lows and maintaining strong upside momentum. This momentum appears to be backed by real macro flows rather than just short-term speculation. The euro’s recent strength is not being driven by strong economic performance in the Eurozone. Instead, it reflects a broader shift in global capital allocation and diverging monetary policy expectations. The Federal Reserve began easing policy in late 2024 with a series of rate cuts aimed at responding to softening inflation and slowing labor market conditions. By early 2025, the Fed had completed a handful of cuts before entering a pause. That pause remains in effect for now but markets are increasingly expecting the Fed to resume cutting later this year, with 2 to 3 additional cuts projected for the second half of 2025. These expectations have weakened the dollar as traders anticipate a return to more accommodative policy. (This is known as pricing in or speculative markets) On the European side, the European Central Bank began cutting rates in late 2024 (Duh we all know this by now) and is now widely seen as operating in neutral territory. The ECB has taken a careful and measured approach to easing, avoiding any aggressive dovish turn and instead emphasizing a data dependent path. With limited room to cut further and no urgent economic pressure to do so, the euro has maintained a relative yield advantage compared to the dollar, even in a context of muted growth. Another important driver of euro strength has been the rotation of capital into U.S. equities, particularly in the technology and large cap sectors. As investors allocate more capital into risk assets, the dollar tends to weaken in FX terms, as funding shifts out of USD and into growth exposures (aka emerging markets) This type of flow indirectly benefits the euro. At the same time the dollar is no longer acting as a dominant safe haven for now. Despite the presence of global uncertainty, low market volatility and return focused positioning have reduced the appeal of defensive USD flows. This has allowed the euro to benefit from repositioning, not because of its own economic strength, but because the dollar is no longer absorbing global liquidity the way it once did. From a technical standpoint, the breakout above the 2008 trendline marks a significant structural change. As long as the 1.1500 area holds as support, the trend remains intact. The next major upside target is around 1.20, which aligns with the top of the rising price channel and represents a likely area for medium term profit taking by larger market participants. However , risks to the upside scenario remain. Because this rally is being driven by capital flows and positioning rather than Eurozone fundamentals, it is highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment and data. A stronger than expected U.S economic report, such as an upside surprise in CPI, employment or consumer spending, could quickly change the market’s view on the Fed’s rate path and trigger a resurgence in dollar strength. Similarly, any signal from the ECB that suggests renewed dovishness or further deterioration in European economic data, could weigh heavily on the euro. In addition, if a geopolitical shock or a sharp decline in risk appetite occurs, safe haven flows could return to the dollar and result in a fast reversal in EUR/USD. We saw a warning of this past weekend with Israel and Iran attacking each other. all in all, the euro has made a technically sound and macro supported breakout, driven by diverging rate cycles, capital rotation and the evolving role of the U.S dollar in global flows. The move toward 1.20 remains a valid target as long as 1.1500 holds as support. But this is not a fundamentally bullish euro story. It is a positioning driven move based on relative rate expectations and macro sentiment. If those expectations shift, the rally could unwind quickly. Active risk management remains essential. I hope this helps you all, Cheers! Chart White dashed line - 2008 Resistance Red and Blue Ascending channel (Bullish on Daily) Red is 1.19-1.20 AOI TP
by RobertTMFX
1
GoldFxMinds Sniper Plan — June 17, 2025 🚀 GoldMinds Battle Plan Loaded — June 17, 2025 Good morning GoldMinds 👋 The market is again building perfect traps after CPI & PPI whipped both sides last week. Liquidity is stacking and volatility is hiding behind a quiet news calendar — exactly when the market loves to attack both sides. We stay patient, sniper-style. 🌎 Macro & Sentiment: No major data today, but liquidity still reacts after last week’s CPI & FOMC tone. DXY remains stable — gold remains capped inside premium supply zones. The real game now is liquidity manipulation — we focus on clean execution. 🔬 Structure & Bias: ✅ D1: Liquidity sweep above 3450 — sellers protecting premium. ✅ H4: Lower high distribution forming. ✅ H1: Bearish order flow starting to control. ✅ EMAs 5/21/50: compressed bearish. ✅ RSI: showing divergence on intraday. Bias: Tactical Bearish — under 3460 we remain sellers on sweeps. Liquidity hunts both ways but premium remains the trap zone. 🎯 Sniper Zones 🔻 SELL ZONES: 3405 – 3410 → early pullback rejection zone 3435 – 3445 → main OB liquidity sweep 3452 – 3460 → extreme premium trap zone 🔻 BUY ZONES: 3365 – 3380 → golden zone buy (perfect fibo confluence) 3335 – 3345 → deep flush exhaustion buy 🔄 Tactical Scenarios Sell spikes into premium → M15 rejection → target 3380 first. If flushed into golden zone → watch M15 confirmation → target 3405. If deep flush into 3335 → exhaustion buy setups only. 💡 Tactical Notes No chasing — liquidity first, reaction second. News absence = perfect condition for engineered liquidity sweeps. Stay sniper. Only act when structure confirms. 🔥 If this sniper battle plan helps you prepare, smash the 🚀, drop your bias in comments & hit FOLLOW to support real structure-based trading. Let’s bring back real value content to TradingView. GoldFxMinds 🧠✨
VANTAGE:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
10
US100 is Currently trading in a clear bullish zoneUS100 Technical & Fundamental Outlook (4H Timeframe) The US100 is currently trading in a clear bullish zone on the 4-hour chart. Despite underlying pressure due to cautious market sentiment, the index shows signs of resilience Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist but have yet to spark panic selling. Market uncertainty remains high ahead of this week's anticipated Federal Reserve outlook. Technical View: The index is showing strength, and a 4H candle close above the 22,000 level would be a significant bullish signal. A confirmed breakout above this level opens the door to the next potential target at 22,500 If you like this idea if find more better analysis from our team we need support from You Guys.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by MrMartin_11
USDJPY Looking Very Strong sideUSD/JPY Poised for Breakout: Bullish Momentum Ahead? USD/JPY to be gearing up for a significant breakout. Based on current market data, we are observing strong bullish momentum, suggesting the potential for a major upward move. Key Observations: Technical Structure: Pattern seems to be forming a breakout pattern rather than a breakdown, indicating that upward price movement is more likely the U.S dollar remains one of the strongest global currencies, supported by robust economic data and interest rate differentials. Resistance zone 148.500 Support Levels 143.000 you may find more details in the chart thanks you and Good luck Ps Support with like and comments for more insights.
Long
by MrMartin_11
NZDUSD Expecting ahead of GrowthNZDUSD Market Outlook NZD/USD experienced a sharp decline during the Pacific and Asian sessions and is now testing support along its established upward trendline. This downward move appears to be a temporary correction, occurring amid broader U.S. dollar weakness and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Resistance zone 0.61200 Support Level 0.59800 Despite the recent drop, the overall trend for NZD/USD remains bullish, with the pair likely to find support at key technical levels. The correction in the U.S. dollar could offer further upside potential for the New Zealand dollar if the broader trend persists. you may find more details in the chart Ps Support with like and comments for modify Thanks.
Long
by MrMartin_11
GBPJPY Hello traders. Today's first trade comes from the GBPJPY pair. The trade is currently active on my side, and I’m happy to share it with you as well. 🔍 Trade Details ✔️ Timeframe: 15-Minute ✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2 ✔️ Trade Direction: Buy ✔️ Entry Price: 195.715 ✔️ Take Profit: 196.260 ✔️ Stop Loss: 195.444 🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I’m simply sharing a trade I’ve taken based on my personal trading system, strictly for educational and illustrative purposes. 📌 Interested in a systematic, data-driven trading approach? 💡 Follow the page and turn on notifications to stay updated on future trade setups and advanced market insights.
Long
by Nurlan_PT
5
The "True Close" Institutions Don't Talk About — But Trade On█ My Story from the Inside I worked at a hedge fund in Europe, where I served as a Risk Advisor. One thing I never expected before joining the institutional side of the market was this: They didn’t treat the current day’s close as the "true" close of the market. Instead, they looked at the first hour of the next day — once all pending flows had settled, rebalancing was done, and execution dust had cleared — that was the true close in their eyes. Here’s why that changed everything I knew about trading: █ Institutional Reality vs Retail Fantasy ⚪ Retail traders are taught: “The daily close is the most important price of the day.” But institutions operate under constraints that most retail traders are never exposed to: Orders too large to fill before the bell Internal compliance and execution delays Batch algorithms and VWAP/TWAP systems that extend into the next session So while the market might close on paper at 17:30 CET, the real trading — the stuff that matters to funds — might not wrap up until 09:30 or 10:00 the next morning. Although the official “close” prints here, institutional volume ends quickly. It drops off sharply, almost immediately. Once the books are closed and final prints are done, big players exit — and what's left is thin, passive flow or noise. The first hour of the New York session reveals structured flows, not random volatility. This is where institutions finalize yesterday’s unfinished business, which is why many consider this the “true” close. And that’s the price risk managers, portfolio managers, and execution teams internally treat as the reference point. █ Example: The Rebalance Spillover Let’s say a fund needs to offload €100 million worth of tech stocks before month-end. They start into the close, but liquidity is thin. Slippage mounts. They pause execution. Next morning, their algo resumes — quietly but aggressively — in the first 30 minutes of trade. You see a sharp spike. Then a reversal. Then another surge. That’s not noise. That’s structure. It’s the result of unfinished business from yesterday. █ Why the First Hour is a War Zone You’ve probably seen it: Prices whip back and forth at the open Yesterday’s key levels are revisited, sometimes violently Big moves happen without any overnight news Here’s what’s happening under the hood: Rebalancing spillovers from the day before Late-position adjustments from inflows/outflows Risk parity or vol-targeting models triggering trades based on overnight data The market’s not reacting to fresh news — it’s completing its old to-do list. █ What the Research Really Says About Morning Volatility The idea that "the true close happens the next morning" isn’t just insider intuition — it’s backed by market microstructure research that highlights how institutional behaviors disrupt the clean narrative of the official close. Here’s what the literature reveals: █ Heston, Korajczyk & Sadka (2010) Their study on intraday return patterns shows that returns continue at predictable 30-minute intervals, especially around the open. The key driver? Institutional order flow imbalances. When big funds can’t complete trades at the close, they spill into the next session, creating mechanical, non-informational momentum during the first hour. These delayed executions are visible as persistent price drifts after the open, not random volatility. █ Wei Li & Steven Wang (SSRN 2010) This paper dives into the asymmetric impact of institutional trades. It shows that when institutions are forced to adjust positions — often due to risk limits, inflows/outflows, or model-based triggers — the market reacts most violently in the early hours of the day. When funds lag behind the clock, the next morning becomes a catch-up window, and price volatility spikes accordingly. █ Lars Nordén (Doctoral Thesis, Swedish Stock Exchange) In his microstructure research, Nordén found that the variance of returns is highest in the early part of the session, not at the close. This is especially true on days following macro events or at the end/start of reporting periods. The data implies that institutions “price in” what they couldn’t execute the day before, making the next morning more informative than the actual close. █ Bottom Line from the Research: The first hour isn’t wild because it’s full of emotion. It’s wild because it’s full of unfinished business. These studies reinforce that price discovery is a rolling process, and for institutional flows, the official close is just a checkpoint, not a final destination. █ How to Use This as a Trader ⚪ Don't assume the official close is final Treat it as a temporary bookmark. Watch what happens in the first hour of the next day — that’s when intentions are revealed. ⚪ Volume in the first 30–60 minutes matters It’s not noise — it’s flow completion. Often non-price-sensitive. Often mechanical. ⚪ Design strategies around “true close” logic Test fade setups after the first hour’s range is established. That’s often the real “settled” level. ⚪ Use the first-hour VWAP or midpoint as a reference Institutions may anchor to that — not the official close — for mean reversion or risk metrics. █ Final Thought The first hour is not the start of something new. It’s the conclusion of yesterday’s market. And unless you understand how institutions truly close their books — and how long that takes — you’ll always be a step behind. So next time you see chaos at the open, stop calling it random. 👉 It’s just the market putting yesterday to bed — late. ----------------- Disclaimer The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
OANDA:NAS100USDEducation
by Zeiierman
41