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Beyond Technical Analysis

With new wars appearing, is THALES a good buy?Pros: Massive scale & diversified contract base -€18 billion in annual revenue, 50+ years in defense—among Europe’s largest contractors . Secured key recent contracts: -NATO NCOP/BMD Phase 3 missile-defense and awareness system (ongoing since 2012, renewed in early 2025) . -NATO NCIA IT modernization contract (~€100 million+, six years) awarded via Proximus consortium . -Portuguese “ForceShield” VSHORAD air-defense system via NSPA . These show active involvement and political support in large, multiyear NATO/U.S.–backed defense programs. Exposure to rising defense budgets -With the new 5% NATO defense-spending pledge, countries are stepping up military expenditures—boosting demand for Thales’ radar, missile, and communication systems . -Positioned to capture billions more as defense budgets grow across Europe. Cons & Risks Size limits rapid gains -Large-cap stocks like Thales require major updates to move—tens or hundreds of millions in net new orders… a small contract won't cut it. -Expect slower reactions than mid-caps like Hensoldt or THEON. Valuation sensitivity -With high valuation levels, share price can dip on a valuation reset, even with decent results. -A disappointing earnings quarter or negative macroeconomic news could chip away at gains. Execution & political headwinds -Big contracts, like NATO BMD, are subject to delays or cost overruns, affecting profitability. -Geopolitical sensitivities (e.g., with Russia, Turkey, internal EU politics) can jeopardize projects or license approval. D) Mixed analyst sentiment -Although consensus leans positive, there are also Hold and Sell recommendations—some analysts worry about long product cycles and execution risks . -Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.
EURONEXT:HO
by bossout10
1
ETHFI Key Reclaim Watch — Only Long Above $1.09 Confirmation✅ Price currently below major 1D S/R — no bullish bias yet ✅ Only looking for a long entry after confirmed reclaim of $1.09 ✅ Structure remains bearish until then Primary Scenario (Bullish): Enter long only after confirmed reclaim/close above $1.09 Targets: Move to upper range ($2.76) on strength Bearish/Flat Scenario: If price fails to reclaim $1.09, no position — stay sidelined 🔔 Triggers & Confirmations: Only long above $1.09 with confirmation (candle close, volume spike, or strong reclaim) No trade below $1.09 🚨 Risk Warning: Structure remains bearish below $1.09 — avoid bottom picking or forced trades
Long
by Goldfinch_song
AAVE: Bearish Range Play — Watching for Move Back to Monday Low✅ Break above Monday high rejected, confirming resistance ✅ Structure is bearish — main scenario is return to Monday low ($221.56) ✅ Watch for reaction at target for partial profit taking Active Scenario: Hold/enter shorts while below Monday high Target: $221.56 (Monday low) Partial profit: On first touch of Monday low Watch: Price reaction for potential reversal/setup at Monday low 🔔 Triggers & Confirmations: Only consider reversal/long on strong bounce or reclaim at Monday low Remain bearish while price is under Monday high 🚨 Risk Warning: Local trend is bearish — don’t fight structure until reversal is confirmed
Short
by Goldfinch_song
BTC Short from H1 FVG + H4 OB Confluence — Risky Setup✅ Price in strong supply confluence (H1 FVG + H4 OB) ✅ SFP & order block add to short case, but context is choppy ⚠️ Trade is low conviction, manage size and stops accordingly Short Scenario: Entry: In $107,500–$108,500 zone (confirmation from SFP/OB) Target: $104,000–$105,000 (D1 FVG zone) Stop: Above $108,500 or invalidate on strong reclaim 🔔 Triggers & Confirmations: Look for reaction (SFP, rejection wicks) in FVG/OB zone before adding Exit quick if invalidated or strong momentum up 🚨 Risk Warning: Not a high conviction setup; use smaller position size and stay nimble
Short
by Goldfinch_song
USDCAD: If This Breaks, USDCAD Might Be Lining Up a Smooth DropUSDCAD tapped into a clear liquidity zone and showed signs of weakness at the top. Price is now hovering near a potential break of structure, and a fair value gap has formed just above. If we get that break, the idea is to wait for price to retrace into the FVG, then look for a clean continuation to the downside. There’s also a bearish trendline holding well, adding pressure to the move. On top of that, a head and shoulders pattern is forming, another clue that momentum could be shifting lower. No need to rush. Let the break happen. Let price return. Then act.
Short
by J4mesWick