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doge buy midterm"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟 We're a team of 📈 passionate traders 📉 who love sharing our 🔍 technical analysis insights 🔎 with the TradingView community. 🌎 Our goal is to provide 💡 valuable perspectives 💡 on market trends and patterns, but 🚫 please note that our analyses are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. 🚫 Instead, they reflect our own 💭 personal attitudes and thoughts. 💭 Follow along and 📚 learn 📚 from our analyses! 📊💡"
Long
by Golden_candle
1
GBPUSD - Longs - Fundamental Analysis My trade idea for GBPUSD: DXY (USD) News: On 2nd April 2025, US president Donald Trump announced tariffs of 10% on most imports and up to 145% on Chinese goods. This has led to significant market volatility. Investors are increasingly concerned about the U.S.'s economic direction, prompting a shift away from dollar-denominated assets. This sentiment has been exacerbated by fears of a potential recession, as highlighted by JPMorgan Chase's forecast. Major foreign investors, including those from China and Japan, are reportedly reducing their holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds. This retreat diminishes demand for the dollar, contributing to its depreciation. ​ Conclusion: We can expect a further decline in DXY price. Possible opportunity to long XXX/USD pairs. BXY (GBP) News: The UK economy grew by a faster-than-expected 0.5% in February, official figures showed. Conclusion: With US placing tariffs globally, we can expect USD weakness over the next 2-3 weeks. GBP holds its ground with strong economic figures from Q1. My trade position: Between 14 - 18 Apr, I will be monitoring price action. Looking to buy below 1.32 with the first target being 1.35. 1.29 offers strong support.
Long
by TheForexMessiah
1
Bitcoin Income: STRK vs IBIT – Dividends, Covered CallsThis video provides a performance breakdown between two Bitcoin-related financial instruments—STRK (Strike) and IBIT—through the lens of passive income generation. I compare traditional buy-and-hold strategies with more active income tactics such as covered calls. Key insights include: STRK provided the best return YTD (26%) and yielded approximately 1.54% in passive dividends, requiring minimal effort—just buy, hold, and collect. IBIT, while slightly trailing in growth (13%), is optimized for a covered call strategy, offering an impressive 6% income yield through active options trading. The analysis highlights the trade-off between simplicity and engagement—STRK is more passive-friendly, while IBIT offers higher yields for those willing to manage options. This is ideal for tech-savvy investors exploring Bitcoin ETFs and derivative income strategies, weighing convenience versus return potential.
NASDAQ:STRK
by controllinghand
Trade Wars Heat Up – Bitcoin Heats Up Too. What's Next?After a textbook V-shape recovery from the April lows, BTC has reclaimed previous resistance levels (ATH) and turned them into support. The strong bounce shows impressive momentum, and the price is respecting the ascending trendline. Despite macroeconomic tension (e.g., Trump tariffs Europe pullback), the structure remains bullish. Current price action suggests a healthy consolidation or small pullback could lead to continuation toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension zone (~$135k). 📌 Key Areas to Watch: Support zones: ~$100.500k, 92k & $83k Resistance target: 1.618 Fib near ~$135k Structure: bullish continuation pattern forming Will BTC follow this path? All eyes on the trendline. Thoughts? Let me know in the comments! #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #VShapeRecovery #Bullish #Trendline #Fibonacci
Long
by CryptoLvke
Smells Like a Trend ReversalWeekly Recap – Gold Market Monday, May 12, 2025 The week began with a sharp GAP during the Asian session (starting around 1:00 AM London / 8:00 PM New York on Sunday) : Gold dropped abruptly by $60, from $3,325 to $3,266. The catalyst was a temporary easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, following weekend negotiations that led to a 90-day tariff pause. During the European session (starting at 8:00 AM London / 3:00 AM New York) , the downtrend continued, pushing the price further down to $3,207. Tuesday–Wednesday, May 13–14 Between these two sessions, the price consolidated within a narrow range of $3,265 to $3,202 (63 $ range). Despite better-than-expected U.S. inflation data, there was no significant breakout—the market remained indecisive. Wednesday, May 14 – European Session The price continued its descent, falling from $3,243 to $3,168—a $75 drop—indicating persistent downward pressure despite macroeconomic stability. Thursday, May 15 The Asian session (1:00 AM London / 8:00 PM New York) began quietly, with a range between $3,168 and $3,192. Then a sharp drop to $3,123 followed (down $71), triggered by new statements from President Trump, who announced potential trade deals with India, Japan, and South Korea. In the European session (8:00 AM London / 3:00 AM New York) , a strong reversal occurred. After failed peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, and due to growing geopolitical uncertainty plus a weakening dollar, gold surged by $132, from $3,120 to $3,252. Friday, May 16 The Asian session opened slightly bearish, with gold dipping from $3,252 to $3,218. However, bullish momentum returned during the European and U.S. sessions, continuing Thursday’s upward trend and adding $51 by day’s end. 📰 Geopolitical News Landscape India / Pakistan Since the Kashmir terror attack on May 9, 2025, tensions have escalated again. Cross-border airstrikes and border closures have resumed. A fragile ceasefire, brokered by the U.S., is under pressure. Disputes over water rights further strain relations. ➡️ Short-term outlook: high tension remains. Gaza Conflict On May 9, Israel launched Operation Gideon’s Chariot against Hamas, aiming to dismantle the group and rescue hostages. Over 300 deaths have been reported. A leaked plan suggests Gaza will be divided into three heavily controlled zones. The humanitarian situation is catastrophic (over 53,000 deaths since 2023). Peace talks are underway in Doha, but the situation remains dire. ➡️ No relief in sight. Russia / Ukraine Direct talks were held in Istanbul for the first time in three years. While a prisoner exchange (1,000 each side) took place, no substantial progress was achieved. Russia demands Ukrainian troop withdrawals from contested areas—Kyiv refuses. Simultaneously, Russian attacks intensified, including drone strikes on Sumy. ➡️ A ceasefire remains unlikely in the near term. U.S.–China Trade War A 90-day tariff pause was announced the weekend before May 12: U.S. tariffs cut from 145% to 30% Chinese tariffs reduced from 125% to 10% Markets reacted positively at first—especially in retail and shipping sectors. ➡️ However, unresolved structural issues (e.g., tech transfers, export controls) keep tensions fragile. No comprehensive deal is in sight. ⚖️ Trump vs. Powell Tensions escalate between President Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell: - Trump demands aggressive rate cuts - Powell warns of inflation risks - The Fed holds the interest rate steady at 4.25–4.5% - A 10% staff reduction is planned at the Fed for “efficiency” ➡️ The growing political interference is increasing market instability. 📉 U.S. Inflation – April 2025 The official inflation rate dropped to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021. However, consumer inflation expectations soared to 7.3%, the highest since 1981. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8—a historic low. ➡️ A clear gap between perception and data is emerging. 📊 Technical Analysis – Short-Term Since May 12, an open GAP exists between $3,289 and $3,325 (36 $ range) A V-shaped reversal formed from the low on May 15 ($3,120) to the Friday close ($3,204) Symmetrical triangle formation suggests a convergence around $3,284 (possible by Tuesday) ➡️ Current trading range: $3,172 to $3,285 (113 $ range) 💡 Outlook for Monday, May 19 Time-Zone-Based Expectations: Asia session (starting 1:00 AM London / 8:00 PM New York Sunday): 👉 Potential retest of $3,154 Europe session (8:00 AM London / 3:00 AM New York): 👉 Bullish outlook toward $3,234 U.S. session (2:30 PM London / 9:30 AM New York): 👉 Possible continuation of bullish move — open-ended potential 📌 Trade Setup – Monday 8:00 AM (London) / 3:00 AM (New York) If price is below $3,154 → I stay flat and wait for clear signals If price is above $3,172 → I consider a long position, unless conflicting news emerges 🎯 Weekly Target My goal for the week is $3,348, provided the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) holds near the 100-point level. 🧠 Conclusion I am increasingly convinced that news-driven trading delivers the best results—if one can properly interpret the signals. 🔢 Fibonacci Levels 1h chart: low $3,131 → high $3,500 (April 22) Levels: 0.315, 0.382, 0.5 1h chart: low $3,131 → high $3,435 (May 6) Levels: 0.315, 0.382, 0.5 1h chart: low $3,131 → high $3,252 (May 16) Levels: 0.315, 0.382, 0.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Wick-Sniper
1
NFP ANALYSIS🚀#NFP Analysis : Pattern Formation💲💲 🔮As we can see in the chart of #NFP that there is a formation inverse head and shoulder pattern and it's a bullish pattern. Also there is a perfect breakout and retest of the levels. This indicates a potential bullish move.📈📈 🔰Current Price: $0.0910 🎯 Target Price:    $0.1100 ⚡️What to do ? 👀Keep an eye on #NFP price action. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits. The price must close above the neckline. After that we will see a bullish move. ⚡️⚡️ #NFP  #Cryptocurrency #TechnicalAnalysis  #DYOR
Long
by ZEUS_Market_Alerts
1
Bitcoin: Bullish Flag Breakout Targeting $114K Zonehello guys! Bitcoin has been riding nicely inside an ascending channel, and it just broke out of a clean bullish flag on the 4H chart (classic continuation setup). The move looks strong, and the target for this flag breakout sits around the $114,000–$115,000 zone (gray area). There’s a chance BTC pushes straight into that target if momentum holds, but we should also be ready for a possible pullback to the channel’s lower trendline before the next leg up. That lower boundary would be a spot to watch for bullish reactions if the market cools off short term. What I see: Pattern: Bullish Flag within Ascending Channel Breakout Confirmed: Strong momentum after flag breakout Target Zone: $114,000–$115,000 Scenarios: Direct move to target Retest of channel support (~$106,000–$107,000) before continuation Invalidation: A Break below the channel support would invalidate the bullish setup
Long
by melikatrader94
13
EURUSD EURUSD – New Short Trade Opportunity There’s currently a selling opportunity on EURUSD. I’ve already activated the trade, and anyone interested can consider entering now as well. If the price starts ranging too much, I’ll manually close the trade. Please note: this trade will not remain active until tomorrow. 🔍 Trade Details: ✔️ Timeframe: 15-Minute ✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2 ✔️ Trade Direction: Sell ✔️ Entry Price: 1.13438 ✔️ Take Profit: 1.13128 ✔️ Stop Loss: 1.13592 🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I’m simply sharing a trade I’ve taken based on my personal trading system, strictly for educational and illustrative purposes. 📌 Looking for a systematic, data-driven approach to trading? 💡 Follow the page and turn on notifications to stay updated on future trade setups and advanced market insights.
Short
by Nurlan_PT
ETH (ethereum) – Massive Flag Pattern After 100% RunCRYPTOCAP:ETH – Bullish Flag After Monster Run Ethereum ( CRYPTOCAP:ETH ) has nearly doubled since April, and now it’s cooling off — but in the best way possible: a bullish flag consolidation. 🔹 After a nearly 100% move, ETH has been consolidating tightly for two weeks — textbook flag behavior. 🔹 The trend remains strong, and this type of structure often leads to another leg higher. 🔹 Volume has tapered off during the flag — exactly what you want to see before a breakout. Setup Overview: Pattern: Large bull flag Support/Risk: Defined risk to the $2500 zone Measured Move Target: Breakout could push to $3100–$3500 based on the prior leg Why I like this setup: Healthy consolidation after a parabolic run Risk/reward is favorable with structure and measured target Potential breakout fuel from the ETH ETF narrative + BTC dominance rotation
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by kunal00
2
Gold Rises on Tariff News, But Caution NeededGold prices surged after the U.S. President announced a 50% tariff on EU imports, triggering safe-haven demand. However, analysts warn that this may be a short-term FOMO reaction rather than the start of a sustainable rally. 📰 Key Drivers: - The tariff announcement spooked markets, boosting gold temporarily. - The U.S. dollar dipped slightly, but bond yields remain high – a bearish sign for gold. - No immediate EU retaliation weakens the long-term bullish case. 🔍 Technical Outlook: - Resistance: $3350 – being tested but not yet clearly broken. - Support: $3310 – may be revisited if upward momentum fades. - EMA 09: Price remains above, but fading volume and long upper wick suggest weakening strength. - Price Action: Sharp move looks emotion-driven; correction likely if no follow-up catalyst appears. 📉 Short-Term View: Despite the surge, gold’s rise may be temporary. If no escalation occurs, a short-term pullback is likely as markets reassess the impact. 💡 Suggested Trade Setup (Short-Term Bearish): SELL XAU/USD at 3345 – 3350 🎯 TP: 3330 ❌ SL: 3355 BUY XAU/USD at 3310 – 3312 🎯 TP: 3325 – 3327 ❌ SL: 3305
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mian-FXSignals
Market next target 1. Mislabeling of Support Area The red box is labeled as a support area, but price is approaching from below, not above—so technically, this should be called a resistance area. Until price closes above it with volume, it cannot be assumed to act as support. --- 2. Volume Misinterpretation The volume does not strongly support a breakout. The latest green bars are not significantly larger than prior volume, implying limited bullish conviction. Lack of volume surge through resistance is often a false breakout indicator. --- 3. Single Scenario Bias The analysis shows only an upside (bullish) projection, ignoring bearish possibilities. If price gets rejected from resistance, there’s a strong chance of a pullback to $33.00 or lower, especially with weak momentum. --- 4. No Confirmation Indicators The chart lacks confirming technical indicators like RSI, MACD, or trendlines to validate the bullish scenario. Price could be forming a lower high, indicating a possible continuation of the downtrend.
TVC:SILVERLong
by Gold_Free_Signals
Market next target 1. Misinterpretation of Support Area Claimed support area has already been broken previously (left of the red box), so it's no longer strong support—it might be better viewed as resistance now. The bounce from this zone could be a liquidity trap or a fakeout, rather than genuine buying interest. --- 2. Overreliance on a Single Target Zone The chart implies a clear target zone below, but no Fibonacci, moving average, or volume profile is shown to validate this zone. A better analysis might include additional tools (like RSI, Bollinger Bands, or Fibonacci levels) to confirm this as a realistic target. --- 3. Volume Analysis Oversight There is a volume spike on the most recent bullish candles, which could indicate strong buying interest, contradicting the downtrend expectation. This might suggest a potential breakout above resistance instead of a fall. --- 4. No Risk Management Consideration The chart lacks stop-loss levels or invalidation points, which is crucial for trading strategies. Without a clear invalidation, the trade idea becomes more speculative. --- 5. Alternative Scenario Missing A bullish breakout scenario (above resistance zone) isn’t given enough weight. Given the recent strength, there is a strong case for continuation upward if the price closes above the red box with volume.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Gold_Free_Signals
5 Trading Beliefs That Keep Me Untouchable! Do you check off 5?Everyone talks about edge, but few talk about identity. These are the thoughts I rehearse every day. Not to hype myself up, but to root myself deeper in who I must become. These beliefs don’t just sharpen my trading — they shield my mind from chaos. Welcome to The Part 2 1. Money is not important It’s fuel, not the fire. I don’t chase paper — I chase precision. The second money becomes my reason, fear walks in the door. But when it’s just the byproduct of execution and clarity? That’s when I move with power. > “He who chases the outcome loses the process. He who masters the process controls the outcome.” 2. It’s OK to lose in markets Losses don’t mean I’m off-track — they mean I’m engaged. Some trades are tuition. And I pay them with purpose. Because every great trader I study… bled first, banked later. I lose like a winner — with awareness, not emotion. 3. Mental rehearsal is essential Every night before bed — every morning before I trade — I see it first. I walk through the setup, the entry, the hold, the exit. I rehearse calmness, I rehearse precision. So when the real trade shows up? I don’t react. I recognize. I’ve already been there. 4. Trading is a game Serious results. Serious purpose. But never serious emotion. A game has rules. Patterns. Levels. And like every master of any game — I study, train, and outlast those who play sloppy. > “The market isn’t trying to beat me. It’s just the board I’m learning to dominate.” 5. I’ve already won before I start I walk in as the version of me who’s already achieved the outcome. Not hoping — knowing. I act from the future I’ve already decided is mine. And when I operate from that space? The market bends to meet me there. > These aren’t just beliefs. They’re mental armor. If you’re walking this path to elite performance, I’m not here to motivate you — I’m here to remind you of who you already are. Stay locked in. If you trade, which one of these are you still working on?
Education
by theeOperator90
Stuck in a Squeeze, Fade the TopAs the Australian Dollar, a currency traditionally correlated with risk, has been trading in a range since mid-April, fading rallies near the top of that range appears to offer the best odds in the current environment. Here’s the breakdown. Fundamental Analysis The Australian Dollar continues to move without clear direction as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) pursues a clearly dovish path. The RBA’s most recent 25bp rate cut, bringing the official cash rate down to 3.85%, was justified by the central bank’s confidence that inflation is returning to target, coupled with lingering global uncertainties. According to the RBA Rate Tracker, markets are now assigning a 70% probability to yet another 25bp rate cut at the next meeting, an outlook that continues to weigh heavily on AUD yields and the currency’s appeal. On the other side of the Pacific, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders do not expect any policy easing from the Federal Reserve before late summer at the earliest. This means the US-Australia interest rate differential is likely to increase, making it even more expensive to hold AUD against the greenback. Compounding the challenges for the Aussie is the ongoing economic slowdown in China, Australia’s largest trading partner. With Chinese demand for commodities muted, there is little external support for the AUD. Technical Analysis Technically, after a sharp rebound in early April, the Aussie has remained stuck in a frustratingly tight range, unable to regain any significant upward momentum. Since its highs at the end of September, the currency is still down almost 7%. Price action has been confined to a broad consolidation zone between 0.6350 and 0.65 USD for over a month, with sellers consistently capping rallies at the upper end. The volume profile analysis reveals a heavy concentration of traded volume in the 0.6440–0.6465 band, reinforcing this area as a significant battle zone where sellers are likely to defend their ground. For the bulls to regain control, a sustained break above 0.6520 would be needed, something that appears unlikely in the current macro context. Sentiment Analysis From a positioning perspective, the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that large speculators continue to hold net short positions in the Aussie, signaling ongoing professional bearish bias. Retail sentiment paints a similarly contrarian picture: broker data from FX/CFD platforms indicates a slim majority of retail traders remain long AUD/USD, with some brokers showing more than 70% long positions. This crowded long condition means there is still fuel for further downside, especially if key support levels give way. Notably, retail stop losses are clustered between 0.6400 and 0.6350, and these could act as accelerants if triggered by a downside break. In addition, risk sentiment remains fragile. While the VIX has eased somewhat, it struggles to remain sustainably below 20, a sign that investor nerves are still on edge and defensive flows are likely to persist. Listed Options Analysis The options market continues to reinforce the idea that rallies will struggle to gain traction. Open interest on call options remains heavily concentrated above spot, particularly at the 0.6500, 0.6525, 0.6550, and 0.6600 strikes, creating a robust technical ceiling. This makes it difficult for the Aussie to stage any sharp or lasting rallies. In contrast, open interest on put options is moderate and scattered, with the largest concentrations around 0.6400 and 0.6450, but there is no significant put wall below spot. The put/call open interest ratio is close to parity, indicating a relatively balanced positioning between calls and puts, with no strong directional bias from the options market. Implied volatility for the front month remains elevated around 9.8–10.1%, and the risk reversal remains slightly negative, suggesting a modest preference for downside protection, but markets are not in panic mode. The heavy concentration of call OI above spot still introduces some gamma risk: if the market rallies into the 0.6500–0.6550 zone, a short squeeze could briefly occur, but such moves are likely to encounter renewed selling pressure and fade quickly. Trade Idea With the RBA set to remain dovish, China’s demand subdued, and global risk aversion remaining elevated, the Aussie remains a tactical short on rallies. The macro, technical, and sentiment picture all favor a bearish stance. Entry: Short Australian Dollar (6AM5) on rallies to 0.6440–0.6465 Stop: 0.6520 (just above high-volume node and call OI cluster) Target: 0.6350 (support, stop loss cluster below 0.64) The trade provides a risk/reward ratio close to 2:1, thanks to a tight stop above resistance and a realistic profit target near support. However, the outlook could change if the Fed pivots more dovishly than expected after the recent Moody’s downgrade of US debt. The FX landscape could shift rapidly and trigger a covering rally in AUD/USD. For now, though, the odds favor playing from the short side. We’ll monitor stops closely and be ready to adapt if the macro winds start to shift. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/. This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6A1!Short
by satelysfx
Nasdaq futures - medium term correction is quite likely# Elliott Wave Analysis of Nasdaq 100 Futures: Critical Juncture Signals Potential Reversal Based on the provided Elliott Wave chart analysis of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures, the market appears to be at a critical inflection point where Wave 5 of the primary impulsive sequence may be nearing completion. At the current level of **20,910.75**, down **267.50 points (-1.26%)**, technical indicators suggest a potential major corrective phase could be imminent. The convergence of Elliott Wave completion patterns, RSI divergence signals, and extreme market sentiment readings creates a compelling case for heightened caution among traders. ## Elliott Wave Structure Analysis ### Current Wave Count and Positioning The chart reveals a completed five-wave impulsive structure that began from the March 2020 lows, with Wave 5 potentially reaching its terminal point around current levels . According to Elliott Wave Theory, **Wave 5 is prone to truncation and often presents with indicator divergence** . The current structure shows classic characteristics of a maturing Wave 5, where **the fifth wave is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend** . The exponential moving averages positioned at **20,211.64** and **20,278.60** provide crucial support levels that align with the expected Wave 4 correction zone. Elliott Wave practitioners recognize that **Wave 4 typically retraces less than 38.2% of Wave 3** , and the current price action respects these theoretical boundaries. The fractal nature of Elliott Waves suggests that within the larger degree Wave 5, we have likely completed five sub-waves of lesser degree. ### Fibonacci Relationships and Target Zones Elliott Wave analysis relies heavily on Fibonacci relationships between waves. The chart shows potential completion targets where **Wave 5 equals Wave 1** or represents **0.618 to 1.618 of Wave 1 plus Wave 3** . Current price levels appear to satisfy these mathematical relationships, suggesting the impulsive sequence may be mathematically complete. When **Wave 5 is extended, the most common multiple for its length is 1.618 times the length of Wave 1 through Wave 3** , which aligns with current market positioning. ## RSI Divergence Signals ### Bearish Divergence Formation The RSI indicator at the bottom of the chart displays classic **bearish divergence characteristics**, where **price makes higher highs while RSI forms lower highs** . This divergence pattern typically occurs **when RSI is above 70, signaling that the asset is overbought** . The current RSI reading suggests that **buying pressure is fading** despite continued price advances, which **is usually a sign that the uptrend is losing strength, and a downward reversal might be coming** . **Wave 5 almost always presents with indicator divergence** , and the RSI pattern confirms this theoretical expectation. The divergence serves as an **early warning that the uptrend might lose momentum and reverse** , providing traders with advance notice of potential trend changes before they manifest in price action. ### Momentum Deterioration The weakening RSI momentum while prices reach new highs indicates **underlying selling pressure building beneath the surface** . This divergence pattern suggests that **institutional smart money may be distributing positions** while retail sentiment remains bullish. The divergence becomes more significant when confirmed by other technical indicators and Elliott Wave completion patterns. ## Market Sentiment Context ### Fear and Greed Index Implications Recent market sentiment data reveals extreme volatility in investor psychology. The **CNN Fear and Greed Index plunged to just 3 on April 8, marking its lowest level since March 2020** , before recovering modestly to **8** by mid-May. These extreme fear readings historically correlate with major market turning points, though **fear of this magnitude can bring extreme volatility, often resulting in steep market declines** . The index's current positioning suggests that while fear has dominated recent sessions, contrarian signals may be emerging. Historically, **when fear reaches extreme levels, it has marked moments of potential opportunity or further market turbulence** . The combination of extreme sentiment readings with Elliott Wave completion patterns creates a confluence of reversal signals. ### Volatility Environment The **CBOE Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index (VXN)** has elevated to significant levels, with recent readings around **24.20** . Higher VXN levels indicate **heightened expectations of near-term price swings** and often correlate with **institutional hedging activity** . When combined with Elliott Wave completion patterns, elevated volatility readings suggest market participants are positioning for significant directional moves. ## Trading Recommendations ### Short-Term Strategy (1-4 Weeks) **Bearish Positioning**: The confluence of Elliott Wave 5 completion, RSI divergence, and extreme sentiment readings suggests high probability of corrective action. Traders should consider **shorting rallies toward resistance zones between 21,000-21,200** with stops above Wave 5 highs. Target initial support at the **Wave 4 low around 19,000-19,500**, representing a potential **10-15% correction** . **Risk Management**: Given the potential for **truncated Wave 5 scenarios**, where the market reverses sharply without reaching typical extension targets , position sizing should be conservative. **Limit single-trade exposure to 1-2% of capital** and maintain strict stop-loss disciplines above recent highs. ### Medium-Term Outlook (1-3 Months) **Corrective Wave Expectations**: Following Elliott Wave theory, the completion of the five-wave impulsive sequence should trigger a **three-wave corrective pattern (A-B-C)** . Wave A corrections typically retrace **38.2% to 50% of the entire impulsive move**, suggesting potential targets in the **18,000-19,000 range**. Wave C of the correction **is typically at least as large as Wave A and often extends to 1.618 times Wave A** . **Sector Rotation Opportunities**: During major Elliott Wave corrections, defensive sectors often outperform growth-oriented technology stocks. Consider reducing exposure to **semiconductor and cloud computing sectors**, which have shown weakness with **-9.3% and -5.8% monthly declines respectively** , while increasing allocations to utilities and consumer staples. ### Long-Term Perspective (3-12 Months) **Accumulation Zones**: Major Elliott Wave corrections create optimal long-term accumulation opportunities. The projected **Wave A target zone between 18,000-19,000** should provide strategic entry points for patient investors. Historical analysis suggests that **Wave 2 corrections of higher degree** often retrace to previous resistance levels that become support. **Volatility Strategies**: Elevated VXN readings and expected corrective volatility create opportunities for **volatility premium capture strategies**. Consider selling put spreads at projected support levels and buying protective calls to benefit from mean reversion following the corrective sequence. ## Risk Considerations ### Alternative Wave Counts Elliott Wave analysis requires consideration of alternative scenarios. The current count assumes Wave 5 completion, but **complex Wave 4 patterns** could extend the impulsive sequence. If price breaks above recent highs with strong momentum, the **extended Wave 5 scenario** becomes more probable, targeting **22,500-23,000** levels . ### Macroeconomic Catalysts **Trade policy developments** and **Federal Reserve communications** could accelerate or delay the expected corrective sequence. **Trump's tariff policies** and ongoing **US-China trade tensions** create fundamental headwinds that support the bearish Elliott Wave scenario. Monitor **employment data and inflation readings** for confirmation of economic slowdown that typically accompanies major market corrections. ## Conclusion The Elliott Wave analysis of Nasdaq 100 Futures presents a compelling case for major trend reversal as Wave 5 approaches completion. The convergence of RSI bearish divergence, extreme sentiment readings, and theoretical wave relationships creates a high-probability setup for significant corrective action. Traders should prioritize capital preservation and position defensively while preparing for strategic accumulation opportunities in the projected correction zone. The fractal nature of Elliott Waves suggests this analysis applies across multiple timeframes, reinforcing the significance of current technical developments. Based in AI research
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by mfeigin