The key is whether it can rise above 2674.15
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(ETHUSDT 1M chart)
The key is whether it can receive support near the important support and resistance area of 2513.01-2706.15 and rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
If it fails to rise, you need to stop trading and check the situation.
The reason is that there is a high possibility of further decline.
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(1W chart)
In order to turn into an uptrend, it is expected that the price will have to rise above 2706.15 at least to maintain it.
The reason is that the M-Signal indicators on the 1W and 1M charts are likely to cross near that point.
If it falls below 2316.10, it is likely to fall until it meets the HA-Low indicator.
Since the HA-Low indicator is likely to be newly created as the price falls, it is important to see if there is support near it if it is newly created.
The HA-Low indicator is currently formed at 1340.12.
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(1D chart)
The key is whether it can find support near 2316.10-2513.01 and rise above 2674.15.
If it fails to rise, it is likely to show a step-down trend.
Since it has currently fallen below the M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart, it can be seen as a downward trend from a long-term perspective.
However, since the transaction with the M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart is not far away, it is thought that it is likely to rise.
Therefore, the HA-Low indicator point of 2674.15 is likely to be the high point of the rebound.
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Basically, the time when we can trade is when the price rises above the M-Signal indicator of the 1D chart and maintains the price.
And, when the M-Signal indicators of the 1W and 1M charts are aligned.
Otherwise, the transaction must be short and quick.
When the downtrend begins during spot trading, it becomes busy.
The reason is that we need to increase the holding quantity.
There are two ways to increase the number of holdings: investing a lot of money to buy, and increasing the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit.
If you have a lot of cash or about 20% of the total investment, you can use the method of buying when the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart rises above the level and making a profit.
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If you have little or no cash, you will eventually have to sell the coins (tokens) you currently have and buy them again to increase the number of holdings.
In other words, when there is a rebound, you should sell part of the purchase principal, and when there is a decline, you should buy back the amount you sold.
The ultimate goal of this method is to recover all of the purchase principal and hold the remaining number of coins (tokens).
I think there is no better way for long-term investment.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful transaction.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, I expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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Beyond Technical Analysis
GBP USD LONG RESULT GBP USD Price Action has been ranging between major Support and Resistance.
I noticed price loosing bearish momentum as it was approaching my major Support and I decided to enter a long trade to the resistance zone again and it moved just as planned.
Choppy Movement has resumed again but we'll see How Price moves, Overall still Bullish in my opinion.
Nat Gas Report, Contract Rollove Day: 2/25/25The week has traded a bit stronger than expected, but the future contract rolls over tomorrow. And today there was a great deal of settlement positioning before rollover. As seen in the jump in volume at the expiration window timeframe. It is still expected that tomorrow there will be a great deal of selling into the strength of the pricing. The range of the 20-Day Bollinger Band for the March contract is more than $1.50. Last year it was closer to 30 cents. There were a great deal of contracts to settle with futures. Tomorrow we see a reversion to the mean.
I closed my putts last night, at the 3930 level. I did not expect the strength that we saw today begin last night, but I had my target in sight and took action. I am now waiting for the futures to rollover, some profit to be taken and then to enter my longs for the month. I was looking at the 3650 level on the upcoming April contract, but with the Models starting to see the cold coming, like discussed, I believe my new entry point will be 3800 on the April contract. Good luck and good fortunes.
Keep it burning!
$BTC: Key Levels to Watch in the MarketKey Levels to Watch in the Market
📉 Bybit hack aftermath:
Destroyed market sentiment
Shook institutional confidence
Killed the national reserve idea (US states considering Bitcoin reserves have now canceled their votes)
🚀 The last push to $99K was all Michael Saylor, spending SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B alone.
Is he insane? Buying at the top of the market?
Painful Consolidation Ahead?
We’re sitting at $91K—a crucial support. If Bitcoin fails to hold this level, expect a freefall to $85K, then possibly $81K (major support zones).
From there, Bitcoin can either:
✅ Bounce into a relief rally
❌ Break down into a full bear market if it falls below Support 3
Tough Times for Crypto
Meme coin frenzy scared off retail investors after massive losses.
Presidents rugging people doesn’t help trust in the industry.
Trump’s tariff policies could push inflation up, forcing the FED to hike interest rates.
Any Good News? Nope.
📉 SPX500 is also dropping.
🔍 TruthLabs warns that if a bear market starts, most exchanges and DeFi protocols won’t survive —they aren’t backed 1:1. This could trigger the worst bear market ever.
(See their warning here: x.com)
Final Thoughts
⚠️ Watch $91K—if it breaks, exit the market and wait. No need to get rekt in this toxic environment.
And pray that Tether has enough liquidity to handle the mass exodus. Put your funds on Binance or another reputable exchange.
🔍 DYOR
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Breakout or Deeper Pullback?Hello, Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on gold?
Gold remains in a robust uptrend, with each downturn providing a buying opportunity inside the trend.
The ideal strategy at this point is to wait patiently for a price pullback to support levels before starting a buy position.
Another method is to wait for a break above the most recent high before buying on a pullback to the broken level.
The bullish trend continues, but trades must be performed with correct risk management and confirmation indications.
What is your opinion on gold? Do you anticipate further growth?
🚀 GOLD (XAU/USD) – Breakout or Deeper Pullback? 🔥
💰 Gold Spot (XAU/USD) - 8H Chart Analysis
🔍 Market Insights:
🔹 Strong Uptrend: Gold continues to hold its bullish momentum, respecting the ascending trendline.
🔹 Key Resistance Zone: The $2,945 - $2,960 area has been acting as a supply zone (black box).
🔹 Fibonacci Support: Price recently tested the 0.236 Fib levels ($2,902 & $2,871), which align with a key demand zone (yellow box).
📈 Two Potential Scenarios:
📌 Bullish Breakout: If price holds above the trendline & reclaims resistance, we may see a breakout towards $2,980 - $3,000 🚀.
📌 Deeper Pullback: If support breaks, we could see a correction to $2,875 - $2,850 before a stronger reversal.
📊 Key Levels to Watch:
✅ Support: $2,902 - $2,871 (Fib Levels & Trendline)
✅ Resistance: $2,945 - $2,960 (Supply Zone)
💬 Do you think gold will break out or dip before the next leg up? Drop your thoughts below! 🔥👇
#gold #xauusd #forex #trading #priceaction #technicalanalysis
Analysis W9 - USD/CHF 15-Minute ChartAnalysis: USD/CHF (15-Minute Chart)
Long Entry: Entry at the marked blue line.
Take Profit: Target is the upper green line at 0.92000.
Stop-Loss (three red lines):
The three red lines mark a critical area.
As long as the price moves within these lines, no trade will be opened.
A buy order will only be placed once the price reaches the Long Entry line.
Warning: If all three red lines are broken – do not buy!
Monero: What is the "Fair Value"?Crypto investors need to be aware of Monero and its historic performance tendencies especially on a day like today. It has become the only cryptocurrency in which I think has actual USEFUL value in terms of being used as an '"currency".
KRAKEN:XMRUSD for the last several years has functioned much like a stablecoin albeit with a lot of volatility. It trades within a range but one that has been steadily increasing over time. The old range used to present a fair value of around 156 within the middle of the range. The new bottom of the range sits at 196. As this bear cycle continues I will look to these supports to hold $KRAKEN:XMRUSD.
I do not promise that one should expect the 10x, 100x, etc. from investing in $KRAKEN:XMRUSD. That is not what the cryptocurrency is for. Its value is in its privacy by default. Those values are; resistance against surveillance, true sovereign money, and the actual ideals of being a tool for human freedom that began cryptocurrency over a decade ago. Monero today has actually replaced Bitcoin as the currency of choice on the Dark Web... that was what gave Bitcoin its value in the early days.
Besides the afore mentioned fundamental value of Monero it is important to understand what recent price history has shown about Monero versus Bitcoin during the bull/bear price cycles:
Cryptocurrency Cycles
The relative performance of Monero to Bitcoin (which is, basically, the crypto market) at different points over the last few years can be charted using KRAKEN:XMRBTC
Since November 16, 2024 XMRBTC has performed +64%. This has happened while the price of Bitcoin has mostly stagnated by Monero has steadily appreciated in value.
The period prior was from April 2024 through September 2024, again when the price of Bitcoin stagnated by Monero held and increased in value.
The most important period to study for now, when Bitcoin has likely entered its bearish cycle phase, is the period between December 2021 and January 2023; the last Bitcoin bear cycle. XMRBTC outperformed by about 150% as Bitcoin went down but Monero depreciated less. This period ended when the recent Bitcoin bull cycle began.
Critics will rightly point out though that "Bitcoin over time has outperformed" and they would be correct, historically. Within this truth though crypto investors need to look for a correlation that works anywhere close to this; where when Bitcoin goes down that cryptocurrency consistently holds its value against Bitcoin. There is no other major cryptocurrency that behaves this way. Knowing the cycles can provide investors with a "safe haven" potentially.
Trade wisely!
doge midterm buy"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟
We're a team of 📈 passionate traders 📉 who love sharing our 🔍 technical analysis insights 🔎 with the TradingView community. 🌎
Our goal is to provide 💡 valuable perspectives 💡 on market trends and patterns, but 🚫 please note that our analyses are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. 🚫
Instead, they reflect our own 💭 personal attitudes and thoughts. 💭
Follow along and 📚 learn 📚 from our analyses! 📊💡"
XAUUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS LONG TRADE IDEA CHECK CAPTAIN This chart suggests a potential bullish reversal setup for gold (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe.
Key Observations:
1. Support Zone (Around 2,885 - 2,908):
The price recently dropped but found support around 2,885.926, suggesting possible buyer interest.
A horizontal support line indicates this level has been tested.
2. Potential Reversal & Upside Target:
A V-shaped recovery is anticipated, shown by the sharp upward arrow.
The price could first retest support before a strong bullish push toward 2,960.000, aligning with the previous trendline.
3. Red Resistance Zone (Above 2,920):
Previous price action faced resistance here, making it a key area to watch for confirmation of the bullish move.
Possible Trade Idea:
Entry: Around 2,885 - 2,908 if price confirms support.
Target: 2,960 (or adjust based on structure).
Stop Loss: Below 2,885 to limit downside risk.
Confirmation of Wave 5 being complete, but which wave 5? It's waves within waves within waves, well maybe...
So now I'm seeing it either as the 1st of a 5th wave extension, or the 5th of the entire move from $15.4k.
These levels here should show what's up. Ideally it finds support around the halfway back, but it could go further, maybe the 618. How it gets there as well is to be considered so let's see. But below those levels and it will probably start getting outside the geometric boundaries I'd consider indicative of this move extending, meaning a deeper sell off to a possible 41K bitcoin.
That kind of sounds like wishful thinking, but some players will want in at a discount, so it's conceivable. The weekly moving averages are always worth considering as well. In any such move down so far, bulls would really want to see it rebounding and closing well above the 200 period moving average that it would likely breach in the sell off.
One longer term tool I keep an eye on is the base channel on the entire move from 15k - so channel on beginning of move to the end of 2, parallel with top of 1. Bitcoin hasn't traded below that base channel since quickly dipping its toe through in 2015, before which it had been above it since March 2013 (log scale) and had tried twice to break above it. So that will be my main overall indicator of whether I'm bull or bear.
Still, whatever happens, it's always a shakeout.
GBP/CHF Testing Channel Support – Breakout or Support Hold?GBP/CHF is moving in an upward channel, meaning the price has been going up while staying within a set range. Right now, it's sitting at the support level of the channel, which is an important point.
If the price breaks below this support, it could mean sellers are taking control, and the price may drop further, possibly down to 1.1100.
But if the support holds, buyers might step in, pushing the price back up and keeping it inside the channel. In that case, it will continue following the upward trend.
GOLD ACCORDING TO MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 400PIPS GIVEN US.This chart represents a technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe. Here's what it suggests:
Key Observations
1. Trend & Price Action:
Two bullish channels (marked in blue) show previous uptrends.
Price broke out of these channels sharply, leading to a strong downtrend.
2. Resistance & Support Levels:
$2,942.35 and $2,928.70 are resistance zones where price previously rejected.
$2,887.82 is a support zone, marking the 400-pip drop from the resistance area.
3. Breakdown & Price Projection:
After testing resistance, price dropped aggressively, as indicated by the downward arrows.
The chart suggests a potential retracement before continuing downward toward $2,887.82.
Conclusion
This chart highlights a successful short trade setup on Gold, capturing 400 pips. It shows a bearish continuation pattern, with possible minor pullbacks before further downside.
Are you planning to share this as a trade recap or looking for the next setup?
To Thine Own Shoe be True - $BTC's Other Foot is About to FallBitcoin’s Floor Must Be Lower – Chart Physics and Market Psychology at Work
In this video, I explain why Bitcoin has no choice but to find a lower floor, despite many traders believing the worst is behind us. While price is briefly going to appear to confirm support, this is just part of the process before it comes back down and breaks through it on the third test. The real focus here isn’t whether this level holds for another day or two—it’s about why Bitcoin must go lower before it can establish true support.
For a long time, Bitcoin has been floating over clear air with no real structural support. When price climbs too high without building a strong foundation, it eventually has to fall back down to fill the gaps. Right now, the market is in denial, desperately trying to hold Bitcoin in the $90,000 range, but this isn’t about what traders want—it’s about chart physics and liquidity. When there’s nothing left to hold the price up, it must seek a lower equilibrium.
Psychologically, traders don’t want to accept that Bitcoin might have to revisit $70,000 or lower to reset before moving higher. But markets don’t move based on hope—they move based on supply, demand, and liquidity positioning. Right now, there are no meaningful buyers willing to absorb the sell pressure at this level, which means Bitcoin has nowhere to go but down. Once it finally breaks through, it will likely move quickly, as there’s no real support structure beneath it.
Know thy shoe.
The shoe will find the ground.
(My sincerest apologies about the volume ladies and gentlemen. The problem which I thought I had corrected from a prior video still exists in this video. It is an issue I'm hoping Trading View can correct before too long on their end… The problem originated on my end, but there was nothing I can do after it was recorded, and I had to get this video up there - I believe it contains important time sensitive information…
Please try listening with the volume turned all the way up or perhaps with headphones until the problem can be corrected.
My system issue has been corrected for the future, but Trading View if you can, please tweak this on your end and amplify it. This video is extremely worthwhile..)
ETHUSDT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NEXT MOVE POSSIBLE CHECK CAPTAIN This chart represents an analysis of Ethereum (ETH) against Tether (USDT) on a 1-hour timeframe from Binance. Here’s a breakdown of the key elements:
1. Price Action & Trendlines
The chart shows previous ascending channels (marked in blue) that led to a breakdown.
The price recently dropped sharply after breaking below a key resistance zone.
2. Support & Resistance Zones
The red zone around $2,621.45 indicates a resistance level where price may struggle to break through.
The green zone around $2,724.32 suggests a target level if price breaks resistance.
3. Fibonacci & Technical Indicators
Concentric circles in red and blue suggest Fibonacci-based confluence levels.
The price has reached a potential support level (marked with the lightning bolt icon), suggesting a possible reversal.
4. Projected Movement
The black arrow suggests a bullish rebound from $2,423.12, targeting $2,621.45 first.
If price breaks the resistance, it could move toward $2,724.32.
Conclusion
The chart predicts a potential bullish recovery, but confirmation is needed with price action at $2,423. If ETH holds this support, it may rally toward $2,621 and higher. However, if it fails, further downside is possible.
Would you like me to analyze this further or suggest a trading approach?
Opening (IRA): USO April 17th 68 Covered Call... for a 66.58 debit.
Comments: With /CL dropping sub-70/bbl., putting on a starter position in USO, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 66.58/share
Max Profit: 1.42
ROC at Max: 2.13%
50% Max: .71
ROC at 50% Max: 1.07%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
"MEGA - Make Europe Great Again "The technical formation is cristal clear. Look at the 4hr char.
Fundamentals are not clear as the technicals, but smart money is posioned themself long ago and constantly buying reasonable dips, since its a probability game now.
Is the Ukraine war will end in the comming months Yes: 60%
Europe inflation is under control? Yes 80%
ECB will cut on th next meeting? No 60%
Will europe profit from the end of the war trough reconstruction? 50%
Germany elections are done coalition will be formed and will function. ( German politicians already have done a self-revising process and they wont fail.)
USA will impose severe tarrifs on European Union: 10%-(chance)
Is German economy bottling out: Yes altough france needs to join for party. Italy is italy : We love them and feed them.
USA: Is the economy strong as they claim?
In the next post we gonna have look at it. Just a hint: How the GDP calculated and what the USA goverment wants in future. Every actions is effectecting the GDP calculations and not on the most positive way.
to be continued.