Beyond Technical Analysis
Safe Entry ZoneStock heading South after recent up movement now stocks may Re-Test the green zone 1h.
and always Wait for buy signal after confirmation.
Note: "buy signal after confirmation" Means that:
We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone:
Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle.
Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone.
Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up.
Note: at Take Profit Always watch out for any selling pressure to exist your position and secure profit.
XAUUSD has 70% chance to drop with a 4 RRBased on a 2 years statistics, XAUUSD has high chance to drop.
We have a nice possibility to grab a 4 RR profit. This TP may be the reversal point to grow up. So, use BE or close partly your trade.
8 RR, why not? I'm ready to hold minimum 20% of its trade
Wish you good luck!
BTCUSDT Hello everyone!
Today's first signal came from the BTCUSDT pair. After reaching an all-time high of $112,000 yesterday, BTC formed an ABCD pattern and retraced down to the Fibonacci extension level 1.000. In this pattern, a buy trade is typically initiated after the price retraces to the 1.000 level, and the Take Profit is set at the 0.618 Fibonacci level drawn from the B wave to the D wave.
Although I didn’t open this trade based on the ABCD strategy, I noticed the pattern forming and wanted to share it with you purely for educational purposes.
As for the current active trade, here are the detailed parameters:
🔍 Trade Details:
✔️ Timeframe: 15-Minute
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:1.50
✔️ Trade Direction: Buy
✔️ Entry Price: 110844.19
✔️ Take Profit: 111497.09
✔️ Stop Loss: 110408.00
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I'm sharing a trade I'm personally taking based on my own system, strictly for educational and illustrative purposes.
📌 Interested in a systematic, data-driven approach to trading?
💡 Follow the page and turn on notifications to stay informed about future trade ideas and advanced market insights.
Institutional accumulation in NIRAJ Cements. Potential +20% Volume Surge: Noticeable spike in volume well above the average during this range. It’s a key indicator of institutional buying.
• Price Action: Strong bullish candles with narrow retracements suggest controlled accumulation and smart money entry.
• Structure: Price broke out of consolidation range with conviction. The range was tight before the move, another sign of stealth accumulation.
• These are often signs of order punching – institutions executing buy/sell orders in chunks to avoid moving the market too much.
• Occur mostly near resistance zones, hinting at testing for liquidity or stop-hunting before accumulation.
Market target 1. Support Area Assumption
Disruption: The highlighted support area is relatively narrow and based on a few candles. On a 1-hour chart, this might not provide a strong enough foundation for a meaningful bounce. The price has tested this level multiple times, suggesting weakening support rather than strength.
2. Target Projection
Disruption: The target area is drawn without showing how it was calculated—no Fibonacci level, previous resistance, or volume zone is referenced. Without clear technical justification, the target level appears speculative.
3. Pattern Expectation (Bounce Prediction)
Disruption: The blue arrow suggests a bullish reversal, but volume is declining, and there’s no strong bullish candle yet to confirm the move. In fact, multiple lower highs suggest bearish pressure.
4. Ignoring Bearish Continuation
Disruption: The red arrow suggesting a drop isn't emphasized as strongly as the bullish path. However, repeated testing of the support with no significant bounce increases the risk of a breakdown. Also, if macroeconomic conditions or broader crypto sentiment is bearish, this chart setup could break down easily.
5. Lack of Context
Disruption: The chart analysis is isolated to a short timeframe (1 hour). Without higher timeframe confluence (e.g., 4H, Daily), any short-term pattern can easily be a false signal.
Gold May Continue Rising – Signs of Short-Term Recovery EmergingGold is showing a strong recovery from the recent low of $3280/oz and has now surpassed the key resistance at $3325, currently trading around $3330. The upward momentum remains intact as gold continues to trade above the EMA 09, indicating that bulls are still in control in the short term.
There is a possibility that gold could retrace slightly to the $3310 zone to gather momentum before pushing higher toward the next resistance at $3350.
Key factors supporting the short-term bullish outlook:
• The US dollar has temporarily weakened after economic data came in less impressive, giving gold room to rise.
• Gold demand has seen a slight rebound from ETFs after recent sell-offs.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and cautious sentiment in equity markets continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset.
🔍 Technical Analysis:
• Price remains above the EMA 09, indicating the bullish trend is still intact.
• Nearest support: $3310 – could be an attractive entry point for buyers.
• Next resistance: $3350 – serves as the immediate upside target.
• Bullish candlestick patterns are forming with no strong reversal signals so far.
💡 Suggested Trade Strategy (Short-Term Bias: Bullish):
• BUY XAU/USD at 3310 – 3312
🎯 TP: 3325 – 3327
❌ SL: 3307
• BUY XAU/USD at 3320 – 3322
🎯 TP: 3335 – 3337
❌ SL: 3317
Market next move Current Analysis Summary:
Bullish Outlook: The chart suggests a bullish trend after price moves above a marked support area.
Price Scenarios:
Red arrow: Pullback to support.
Blue arrow: Bounce back upward.
Yellow arrow: Continuation of the bullish trend.
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Disruption of the Analysis:
1. False Breakout Risk:
The move above the support zone might be a false breakout. Volume does not appear significantly increased during the breakout, which is typically needed to confirm real breakout momentum.
2. Volume Confirmation Lacking:
Although some volume is present, the breakout does not show a clear volume spike to validate strong buying interest, which challenges the bullish bias.
3. Resistance Overhead Ignored:
No mention of overhead resistance. The price may face selling pressure near 1.35000, a likely psychological and technical resistance area.
4. Over-reliance on Simple Support Zone:
The support zone is too narrowly defined. If the price dips below it slightly, it could still be a healthy retest, not a reversal, which the red arrow path implies prematurely.
SUNWAY TO CONT MARK UPAs plotted , this is a rare Type #1 Schematic of Re-Accmulation
for a wyckoffian, our eyes are trained to spot any possible / confirmed Spring
Noticed the increase in Supply @ 9/5/25 (Black Arrow)
Despite that, Trigger Bar formed today
-This is A sign of SpringBoard that formed through absorption
As such, entry initiated as attached with a very tight SL
PureWyckoff
Ryanair Takes Off Strong Despite TurbulenceBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst, ActivTrades
Ryanair (ISE: RYA) closed its 2024/25 fiscal year with results that—despite some headwinds—demonstrate the resilience of its ultra-low-cost model. The Irish carrier posted a 4 % increase in revenues to €13,950 m, up from €13,444 m in 2023, while net profit fell 16 % to €1,610 m, penalized by fares that were 7 % lower and disputes with online travel agencies that impacted ticket sales. Despite the drop in profitability, Ryanair carried a record 200.2 million passengers over the past year—9 % more than the previous period—and has revised its guidance to 206 million passengers in 2026 thanks to a rebound in fares and summer bookings, which are already 1 % ahead of last season.
Key Financial Data
• 2024 (year ended 31 Mar 2024):
o Revenues: €13,444 m
o Net profit: €1,920 m
o Passengers carried: 200.2 m (+9 % YoY)
• 2025 (year ended 31 Mar 2025):
o Revenues: €13,950 m (+4 % YoY)
o Net profit: €1,610 m (–16 % YoY)
Analysis
As of the close on 20 May 2025, Ryanair’s share price stood at €23.70, having traded in a YTD range of €19.59–21.75—about a 23.5 % gain since January. On 2 May this range was breached, and the stock reached a high of €24.23 yesterday. That level corresponds roughly to the 23.8 % Fibonacci retracement, suggesting the price may struggle to exceed €25 without first establishing a new support level to underpin further gains. The current upside potential from today’s levels is around 3 %, and the consensus rating is “Outperform.” Moving-average crossovers support this bullish thesis: on 29 April, the 50-day MA crossed above the 100-day MA, confirming a strong uptrend and signaling stability. Additionally, the “bell signal” is robust within the trading range, reinforcing the case for a partial pullback toward the top of the range before the next leg up.
Outlook
With summer bookings and fares starting the season strongly, Ryanair plans to bolster its shareholders’ returns via a €750 m share buyback program and a €400 m special dividend, while optimizing its fleet in anticipation of potential delays to the 737 MAX 8 deliveries in Europe. The carrier believes that moderating fuel costs and strong underlying demand will support profitability in the 2025/26 fiscal year.
Conclusion
Ryanair once again underscores the strength of its ultra-low-cost model: it carried a record number of passengers, adjusted fares upward, and raised its traffic guidance—all despite margin pressure. With a solid stock performance (YTD gain near 24 %) and an analyst consensus rating of “Outperform,” the airline heads into summer with confidence. The €750 m buyback and €400 m special dividend reinforce its shareholder commitment, while lower fuel costs and efficient management of the 737 MAX fleet underpin expectations for a rebound in profits in 2025/26. In short, Ryanair is catching a favorable tailwind that could lift both its results—and its share price—to new highs by 2026.
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All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
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Gold (XAUUSD) Long Setup – Targeting Fresh Highs Bullish Move📊 Chart Breakdown & Market Context:
This 30-minute chart of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) shows a strong bullish price structure that is currently forming higher lows while respecting dynamic trendline support. The chart illustrates demand and supply transfers, which are pivotal concepts in price action trading. Let’s explore the technical reasoning behind this trade setup:
🔄 1. Demand & Supply Shift Zones:
Demand Transferred: Initially, price consolidated within the blue elliptical region. This area saw aggressive bullish pressure that pushed price upward, confirming the presence of institutional demand. As the market progressed, this demand shifted higher — now located at the most recent zone where price bounced after a pullback.
Supply Transferred : A major bearish reaction zone was taken out after the market absorbed selling pressure. This suggests that sellers are no longer in control and demand is rebalancing in favor of buyers.
📈 2. Bullish Structure Confirmation:
After the pullback on May 22, price formed a higher low, perfectly aligned with both the new demand zone and the ascending trendline support. This confirms that buyers are defending this area.
The price is currently pushing upward from this demand, signaling a potential bullish continuation.
The 50% equilibrium level of the recent bearish leg is being tested. A clean break and close above this level would confirm buyers’ dominance and could invite momentum trading interest.
🔵 3. Entry, Targets & Stop-Loss Plan:
✅ Entry:
Entry is ideal from the current price region near 3,313 (or on minor retracement, maintaining RR).
🎯 Take Profit Zones:
TP1 (~3,336): This is just above the 50% level and near the previous swing high. Partial take-profit here is wise in case price consolidates.
TP2 (~3,360): Located at the upper resistance zone, marking the potential target if bullish momentum continues.
❌ Stop-Loss:
SL: 3,287.891 — placed below the recent higher low and below the demand zone. This protects the trade from deeper pullbacks or breakdowns below structural support.
📉 4. Risk Management & Trade Psychology:
Maintain a Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) of at least 1:2 to ensure profitable expectancy.
Avoid over-leveraging, as we are trading near a key resistance zone (50% area).
Watch for volume confirmation or strong bullish candles before fully committing to the trade.
Use a trailing stop once TP1 is hit to secure profits toward TP2.
⚠️ 5. Key Considerations Before Execution:
Monitor any macroeconomic events (e.g., Fed announcements, CPI/PPI, NFP) that may impact gold volatility.
Check DXY (Dollar Index) — if the dollar weakens, gold will likely strengthen further.
Volume behavior around the 50% zone will indicate breakout vs rejection.
🧠 Summary for Minds Section:
Gold shows a clear higher-low structure supported by trendline and demand transfer.
Buyers absorbed supply; now building momentum toward upper resistance zones.
Entry near 3,313, SL under 3,288, TP1 ~3,336, TP2 ~3,360.
Trend remains bullish unless trendline and demand zone are broken.
💡 Educational Takeaway: Watch for demand/supply shifts and trendline confirmations. This setup is a textbook example of structural continuation supported by market psychology and price action zones.
Is US debt a threat to equity market recovery?Introduction: The equity market is marking time in the short term after a vertical uptrend since the beginning of April. There are many issues of fundamental concern, but one is currently front and center: the sustainability of US sovereign debt. Of course, it's far too early to talk about a US public debt crisis, but the new tax bill championed by the Trump Administration envisages raising the US debt ceiling by $4 trillion, putting short-term upward pressure on US bond yields on 10-, 20- and 30-year maturities. Is this a threat to the rebound in US equities since the beginning of April?
1) US bond yields reach macroeconomic warning zone
The Trump Administration's tax bill calls for tax cuts and, above all, an increase in the US public debt ceiling by US$4 trillion to allow the US federal government to continue its massive indebtedness.
The market is beginning to worry about this situation, as US debt is on the verge of surpassing the 1946 record when expressed as a percentage of US GDP. The annual interest burden on existing debt has reached US$880 billion, equivalent to the US defense budget.
Chart showing the evolution of US public debt as a percentage of US GDP
As a result, financial markets are expressing their concern with rising US bond yields on the long end of the yield curve.
Chart showing Japanese candlesticks in daily data tu 10-year US bond yields
Graph showing monthly Japanese candlesticks for the 30-year US bond yield.
2) The market is hoping for activation of the FED put to ease bond tension
This upward pressure on US bond yields may represent a risk for the equity market, as higher US federal government yields will have a direct impact on US corporate borrowing rates.
S&P 500 companies have solid balance sheets and should be able to cope, but long-term bond yields must not rise above 5/6%, as the financial situation of small and medium-sized US companies would then become problematic. This 5/6% threshold has been identified as the macroeconomic warning threshold for the majority of US companies. In such a scenario, the FED would be obliged to intervene directly on the bond market to relieve the pressure.
3) The S&P 500 is overheating in the short term, but the underlying uptrend is technically intact, and remains supported by the new record high in global liquidity.
At this stage, technical analysis of the financial markets suggests that the upward rally since the beginning of April is not under threat. The market was overheated in the short term and needed to breathe. For the S&P 500 index, the consolidation is short-term in scope, and the recovery remains intact as long as the major technical support zone of 5700/5800 points remains intact. The 200-day moving average, shown in blue on the chart below, passes through this price range.
Chart showing Japanese candlesticks in daily data for the S&P 500 future contract
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NIFTY Possible Short Setup – Eye on 24,631 SupportNIFTY formed multiple reversal signals and is now showing signs of weakness after rejecting near 24,825. Volume is high at the top zone, indicating possible distribution.
Current price : 24,789
Expected move: Pullback towards 24,727 and possibly to 24,631 (strong support)
If price holds at 24,631, potential bounce is expected.
Trade Plan :
Entry (Short): Below 24,780
Target 1: 24,727
Target 2: 24,631
Stop Loss: Above 24,820
If support holds, watch for bullish reversal setups.
Market next move Original Analysis Summary:
Price has entered a support area and is expected to bounce.
Two possible bullish paths (blue & yellow arrows) suggest a continuation toward the marked target zone.
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Disruption Thesis: Bearish Reversal Setup
1. Overextended Rally Into Resistance
The move up into the “support area” is sharp and fast, suggesting it's a liquidity grab.
This zone might actually be a supply zone, where smart money is offloading.
Disruption Call: Price could stall or reverse sharply from this area due to lack of follow-through volume.
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2. Volume Profile Weakness
Volume peaked earlier in the rally and is now diminishing, which often signals buyer exhaustion.
Disruption Call: Fading bullish momentum implies a fakeout, not a breakout.
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3. False Breakout / Bull Trap
The green arrow assumes a bounce, but price may just be hovering to bait longs before dropping.
Previous swing highs near 1.1320 may act as a strong rejection point.
Disruption Call: A sudden drop below 1.1300, with a new bearish wave back to 1.1250 or lower.
Market next move Original Analysis Recap:
Support Zone marked just below the current price.
Bearish Move Expected (red arrow) from current resistance.
Bullish Bounce Expected after initial drop (blue and yellow arrows).
Target is placed lower than current price, implying expected downward movement.
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Disruption / Contrarian Thesis:
1. Fakeout to the Downside (Bear Trap)
The analysis assumes a rejection at resistance and a drop, but:
After the large red candle previously, the market may have absorbed all selling pressure.
Current consolidation shows higher lows—suggesting hidden buying.
Disruption Call: A quick dip below support (triggering stops), followed by a strong bullish reversal breaking through the resistance zone.
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2. Volume Insight Ignored
Note that recent volume spiked on green candles during recovery.
Current retracement has lower volume, suggesting it may be a pause in uptrend (not a reversal).
Disruption Call: This is accumulation, not distribution. A breakout above 33.20 could happen, aiming for 33.40 or higher.
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3. Structural Misinterpretation
The “support” identified may not be valid—it’s part of the consolidation range.
True demand zone could be deeper, around 32.90–33.00.