Get started

Beyond Technical Analysis

CADJPY SELL TRADE PLAN🔹 Conservative, High R/R Entry (BEST INSTITUTIONAL ENTRY) 📌 Sell from 106.50-107.00 📌 SL: 107.50 📌 TPs: 105.00, 104.50, 103.00 📌 More refined & avoids early stop hunts. 🔹 Aggressive Entry (Still Valid, But Riskier) 📌 Sell from 106.00 📌 SL: 106.50 📌 TPs: 104.50, 103.50, 102.50 📌 Only valid IF strong rejection occurs. Final Decision – What’s the Best Trade? ✅ If price reaches 106.50-107.00 → That’s the best place to sell. ✅ If price rejects HARD from 106.00 → A lower risk entry is possible. 🚀 This is how Smart Money trades – always waiting for premium price before selling!
Short
by jibkhan111
SMCI - Eyeing this for a potential reloadBEWARE - Market-wide we're seeing a potential institutional "rugpull" sort of situation after plenty of ATH's made last week. Not predicting the market's "top" but I am seeing a common theme on many charts that correlate to the S&P recent ATH and subsequent dump (especially considering it wasn't provoked by any specific news). Also, SMCI specific, keep in mind their deadline approaching to submit the required documents to avoid de-listing. Goes without saying that this would have a huge effect on the stock if somehow they failed to submit. Happy Trading :)
NASDAQ:SMCI
by ReigningTrades
ID: 2025 - 0011.2.2025 1st trade of 2025 executed today. Trade entry at 134 DTE (days to expiration). Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 25 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 13. Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved. IF target profit is not captured after 60 DIT (days in trade), then target is reduced by 50% for the next 30 days. IF reduced target profit is not captured after 90 DIT, then short strikes are covered to add BSH (black swan hedge) protection for a catastrophic move down. This trade will deploy every 10 days until account value has doubled in size. :-) Happy Trading All! -kevin
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Kevins
BTCUSD 1WBitcoin Liquidity Analysis: Possible Price Movement Scenarios After liquidity was taken at the previous month's high, followed by the prior high at 108,353, the major liquidity zones have been cleared. Now, the primary focus is on last month's low, where a significant imbalance is observed (89,376.90). At the moment, there is no apparent logic for the price to continue its upward trend without first clearing the remaining liquidity. However, the market remains unpredictable, and news events could influence the current scenario. We are currently in an accumulation phase, indicating the potential for an imminent impulsive move. The direction of this move remains uncertain. If we think logically and consider market structure, the most probable scenario is closing the liquidity pool in the imbalance zone and testing last month's low. This will be our key target in the near future. I continue to closely monitor Bitcoin’s movements and will soon share a more detailed idea for a short position (short). It is essential to note that this analysis represents my personal opinion and is not a call to action for trading. Always conduct your own research before making any trading decisions. Have a great weekend!
Short
by TraderNo007_
Impact of yesterday’s Piercing Bar (Gold/USD 1D Chart)Impact of yesterday’s Piercing Bar (Gold/USD 1D Chart) 1. Price Action & Candlestick Pattern Analysis • The Piercing Line pattern on the daily chart is typically a bullish reversal signal, appearing after a downtrend. • However, today’s strong bearish follow-through (big red candle) invalidates the bullish intent of the pattern. This signals weakness in buyers’ strength. 2. Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) & Market Sentiment • Volume change is negative (-5.8%) with an increase in spread (74.95%), which means there’s a wider price range with less participation—suggesting weakness in demand. • Weak buying pressure across lower timeframes (1H, 4H, 8H) confirms that any bounce is likely to be short-lived. 3. Support & Resistance Zones • Key resistance at 2,956-2,972 (VWAP Upper Band & Liquidity High) acted as a rejection zone. • Key support at 2,888-2,891 (VWAP & VSA Liquidity Low). This is the level to watch for potential breakdown. 4. Momentum & Trend Analysis • The bearish momentum is strong across multiple timeframes (1H, 4H, 8H). • Price failed to hold above 2,932 VWAP, confirming further downside risk. 5. Order Flow & Market Strength • Negative Delta on footprint charts shows that sellers are dominating order flow. • Absorption at 2,899-2,900 suggests smart money is still distributing, not accumulating. Outlook & Trading Plan Bias: Bearish Outlook (Short Continuation Expected) • Entry: Sell Below 2,891 (Breakdown confirmation) • Stop Loss: 2,920 (Above rejection zone) • Take Profit 1: 2,863 (Liquidity Low) • Take Profit 2: 2,850-2,810 (VWAP Lower Band zones) • Confidence Level: 75% Justification for Trade: • The Piercing Line failed to reverse trend. • VWAP breakdown & weak volume structure confirm bearish continuation. • Momentum remains bearish, with weak demand signals. 👉 Conclusion: Gold remains bearish unless bulls reclaim 2,932-2,956. Short positions favored on breakdown.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Why the Piercing Line Failed to Reverse the Trend?Why the Piercing Line Failed to Reverse the Trend? A Piercing Line pattern is a bullish reversal signal that appears after a downtrend. However, this pattern failed to reverse the bearish trend in today’s price action due to the following key reasons: 1. Lack of Follow-Through Buying • A strong Piercing Line requires the next candle to be bullish, closing above the previous day’s high, confirming a shift in momentum. • Instead, today’s candle is a strong bearish engulfing bar, completely wiping out the bullish intent. This shows sellers overpowered buyers immediately. 2. Rejection at Key Resistance (Supply Zone) • The price attempted to push higher but got rejected at 2,956-2,972 (VWAP Upper Band & VSA Resistance). • Liquidity absorption at this level suggests smart money selling into strength, not accumulation. 3. Weak Volume Confirmation • A strong Piercing Line should come with increasing volume, indicating strong buying pressure. • Volume was weak (-5.8%), meaning there was no real commitment from buyers. • A spread increase (+74.95%) without volume support suggests a liquidity grab rather than true demand. 4. Order Flow Shows More Aggressive Selling • Delta is negative, indicating more market sells than buys. • The footprint chart shows large sell orders dominating, meaning big players are still offloading. 5. Bearish Momentum Dominates Lower Timeframes • 1H, 4H, and 8H charts show bearish continuation patterns with price breaking key VWAP levels. • No higher highs or strong demand zones were created, meaning bulls are not defending. Conclusion: No Bullish Confirmation → Bearish Continuation A Piercing Line is only valid if buyers sustain momentum. Since today’s session completely erased the bullish signal, this is a failed reversal and more downside is expected. Trade Plan (Bearish Bias) • Sell Below: 2,891 • Stop Loss: 2,920 • Target 1: 2,863 • Target 2: 2,850-2,810 👉 Key Takeaway: Price action alone is not enough. Volume, order flow, and momentum must align for a true reversal.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Opening (IRA): TQQQ April 17th 60 Covered Call... for a 57.91 debit. Comments: Adding at strikes better than what I currently have on ... . Here, going lower net delta by selling the -84 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 2 x expected move 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 57.91/share Max Profit: 2.09 ROC at Max: 3.61% 50% Max: 1.05 ROC at 50% Max: 1.82% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
Gold Gann Analysis – Will the Bulls Keep Running?Gold is on fire! 🔥 Currently trading around $2,919, the yellow metal is testing key Gann levels after an impressive bullish rally. The price recently broke above $2,901 (630° Gann level), showing strong momentum—so what’s next? Let’s break it down! 📊 Technical Breakdown: 🔹 Resistance Ahead: The next major hurdle is at $2,955 (720° Gann level). If we clear this zone, gold could aim for $3,000+ in the coming sessions. 🚀but that could be the top too! 🔹 Trend Strength: Price is respecting the ascending yellow channel, reinforcing the bullish trend. 📈 🔹 Key Support: Watch out for $2,847 (540° Gann level) and $2,794 (450° Gann level)—potential bounce zones if a pullback happens. 🏹 Potential Scenarios: 🟢 Bullish Case: Holding above $2,901 keeps the uptrend intact, with eyes on $2,955 and beyond. A clean breakout could send gold soaring past $3,000. 🚀 🔴 Bearish Case: Rejection from $2,955 and a break below $2,901 may lead to a dip toward $2,847 - $2,794. Losing these levels could push gold further down to $2,742 (360° Gann level). Above is Showing important Fib 1.618 Level on the chart "2946.53" Hard Resistance and Target! ⚠️ Key Takeaway: Gold remains strongly bullish, but we’re at a critical resistance zone. A breakout or rejection from $2,955 will determine the next big move! 📉📈 💬 What’s your take? Will gold smash through $2,955 and set new highs, or are we due for a pullback? Drop your thoughts below! ⬇️🔥 #Gold #XAUUSD #Trading #GannAnalysis #Forex 🚀
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Magic_xD
1
XAUUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on GOLD? Gold remains in a strong uptrend, and every pullback presents a buying opportunity within the trend. The best approach at this stage is to wait patiently for a price correction to support levels before entering a buy position. Another strategy is to wait for a break above the recent high and then enter a buy trade on a pullback to the broken level. The bullish trend remains intact, but trade entries should be executed with proper risk management and confirmation signals. What’s your outlook on gold? Do you expect further upside? Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by HAMED_AZ
11