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Oracle Just Frickin Exploded ....What the Hell Just Happened?!!When you hear the name Oracle, what comes to mind? Chances are, you're thinking of old-school databases, big enterprise contracts, or maybe Larry Ellison’s yacht. And you're not wrong — Oracle has been a software giant for decades. But behind the legacy, there’s a transformation underway that’s catching serious investor attention: Oracle is becoming one of the most quietly powerful cloud infrastructure players in the AI boom. So the real question smart investors should be asking right now isn’t: “Is Oracle still relevant?” It’s this: “Is Oracle still a smart investment at this price?” As a value investor who combines deep fundamental analysis with AI-powered tools, I’m going to walk you through a comprehensive breakdown of Oracle from a true value lens — one that cuts through the noise and gets to the numbers that actually matter. Whether you're learning how to value a stock or looking for your next long-term compounder, this guide will change how you see companies like ORCL. Let’s dive in. 🧩 First: What Even Is Oracle? To understand whether Oracle is a good buy, you first need to understand what it actually does — and how it’s reinventing itself in the AI era. 👇 TL;DR – Oracle in 3 Sentences: 💲It builds the databases that power much of the world’s enterprise software and runs mission-critical infrastructure for governments and companies. 💲It’s pivoting fast into cloud computing — and now claims cloud growth of over 70%, driven by demand from AI startups and enterprises alike. 💲With nearly 80% of its revenue coming from recurring cloud services, Oracle is quickly becoming an AI-first infrastructure provider. Oracle isn’t just the old guard anymore — it’s quietly competing with AWS and Azure for the future of cloud. 🧠 Understanding Value: What Makes a Stock Undervalued or Overvalued? Before we talk stock prices, let’s clarify something: Value investing isn’t about buying cheap stocks. It’s about buying great businesses for less than they’re worth. To determine whether Oracle is undervalued or not, I ran it through six institutional-grade valuation models — then created a weighted average fair value to account for both opportunity and risk. These models include: ✅ Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) ✅ Price-to-Earnings Multiples ✅ PEG Ratios ✅ Graham Formula ✅ Dividend Discount Model ✅ Forward Earnings Forecasts Let’s walk through them — simply and clearly. 💵 Market Snapshot (as of June 14, 2025) 🔹 Current Stock Price: $215.22 (All-time high) 🔹 Consensus Analyst Target: ~$230–240 (some stretch targets at $275) 🔹 My Fair Value Estimate (weighted model): $217.50 🔹 Upside Potential: ~1% base case, with a bull case of ~28%, bear case of -5-10%. 📊 Let’s Break Down the Valuation Models — One by One 1️⃣ Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) This model asks: “How much cash will Oracle generate in the future — and what is that worth today?” Assumptions: - Revenue grows at ~11% CAGR - 10% discount rate - Terminal growth at 2% Fair Value from DCF: $235.00 2️⃣ P/E Multiples (Price-to-Earnings) We look at how much investors are paying per dollar of earnings — adjusted for Oracle’s industry average. Fair Value from P/E: $220.00 (Oracle trades near 19× earnings vs. industry ~20×) 3️⃣ Forward P/E Valuation Forward P/E accounts for future earnings projections — critical for growth pivots like Oracle’s cloud expansion. Fair Value from Forward P/E: $240.00 4️⃣ Graham Formula Ben Graham’s method values a company based on conservative earnings and growth expectations. Fair Value from Graham Formula: $200.00 5️⃣ PEG Ratio (Price/Earnings/Growth) A PEG near 1.0 means the price matches growth. Oracle’s growth-adjusted valuation looks compelling. Fair Value Estimate from PEG: $250.00 6️⃣ Dividend Discount Model (DDM) Oracle pays a dividend, but it’s modest. This model gives a lower valuation since most profits are reinvested. Fair Value from DDM: $180.00 📊 Final Verdict: Weighted Average Fair Value = $217.50 At a current price of $215.22, Oracle is fairly valued — with more upside if growth exceeds expectations. BUT, I'd 100% wait for a pull-back. ⚖️ How I Weighed the Models (And Why It Matters) Some valuation models work better for mature dividend payers. Others capture future growth. For Oracle — which straddles both — we need a balanced lens. Here’s how I weighed the models: 🔹 Discounted Cash Flow (25%) Oracle’s predictable cash flows and stable margin profile make DCF highly reliable. 🔹 Price-to-Earnings (20%) Solid earnings and long-term contracts make the P/E model effective here. 🔹 Forward P/E (15%) We factor in strong earnings guidance and cloud growth momentum. 🔹 Graham Formula (15%) Good for conservatively modeling a legacy-heavy but evolving business. 🔹 PEG Ratio (15%) Captures Oracle’s accelerating cloud growth and valuation premium. 🔹 Dividend Discount Model (10%) Minor weighting — the dividend is nice but not central to the investment thesis. Result: A composite valuation of $217.50 — right around current prices, but with a stretch case closer to $275. 📚 Book Value Growth: Quiet Compounding in Action Oracle’s Book Value Per Share (BVPS) is often overlooked — but it's telling a quiet growth story. Here’s how it’s evolved: 🔹 2020: ~$52 🔹 2024: ~$80 🔹 5-Year CAGR: ~11% If this trend holds, BVPS could reach $142 by 2029. At the current P/B ratio of 2.7×, that implies a future price target of ~$384 — long-term investors, take note. This isn’t just noise. It’s what compounding looks like beneath the surface. 🔍 The Metrics That Matter Here’s what’s driving my conviction: 🔹 P/E Ratio ~19× — Slightly below industry average. Not overvalued. 🔹 Forward P/E ~18× — Sign of efficient earnings growth. 🔹 ROE ~25% — A solid return on shareholder equity. 🔹 Debt/Equity ~1.2× — Manageable leverage, not excessive. 🔹 PEG Ratio ~1.3× — Growth-adjusted value looks reasonable. 🔹 Free Cash Flow: $20.8B — Plenty of ammo for buybacks, dividends, or reinvestment. 🔹 Cloud Revenue Growth: Expected to surge 40–70% next year. This isn’t a sleepy old tech company anymore. Oracle is moving — fast. 📰 What’s Happening Right Now? 🔹 Q4 FY2025 Beat: $15.9B revenue (+11%), EPS beat 🔹 FY2026 Outlook: $67B revenue target, cloud growth >70% 🔹 Stock Surge: +29% YTD; +14.5% in a single day — best in 3 years 🔹 Record RPO: $138B — 41% YoY growth, signaling backlog strength 🔹 Some Analysts Cautious: Concerned about margin pressure and stretched valuations Oracle is executing. But it's also priced for near-perfection — which means entry timing matters. 📈 Technicals: What Do the Charts Say? Even fundamental investors should watch the chart. 🔹 Pattern: Inverse head & shoulders breakout 🔹 RSI: Overbought (~85) — signals short-term overheating 🔹 Support Levels: $180 and $154 — key zones to buy on dips 🔹 Next Resistance: ~$275 — stretch target on breakout continuation 🔹 Momentum: Strong buy signals from moving averages 📌 Recommendation: Wait for pullbacks between $180–200 for best risk/reward. 🧠 Bottom Line: Should You Buy Oracle? Let’s be real: Oracle isn’t flashy — but it’s doing something very rare: ✅ Accelerating growth in a legacy business ✅ Winning cloud infrastructure deals in the AI race ✅ Generating enormous cash flow ✅ Reasonably priced vs. peers If you want exposure to AI infrastructure without the megacap premiums of NVIDIA or Microsoft — Oracle might be the play. It’s not undervalued by much, but pullbacks offer a great long-term entry. Disclaimer: this is for informational purposes only. Do your own due diligence. 🚀 Want To Analyze Stocks Like This Without Doing All the Math? I built Wallstreet Alchemist AI to help investors cut through hype and analyze real value — using the same models I use professionally. 🎯 Try it for free (LINK IN PROFILE) — and let AI do the math, so you can focus on conviction.
NYSE:ORCL
by Wallstreet_Alchemist
GBPJPY : Could price break the resistance area?Looking at the 1-hour chart of GBP/JPY, price is currently trading around 195.53, caught between two significant zones. Immediate resistance lies around the 196.40–196.50 area, where price has previously rejected several times—this is a strong supply zone. On the downside, the 194.40–194.60 zone acts as key support and demand, with price bouncing off this level multiple times, showing buyers are still defending it. The overall structure still respects a higher low formation, supported by an ascending trendline from the end of May, suggesting bullish bias unless that structure breaks. Next week, keep an eye on UK CPI and BOE rate decision—both could be big movers. If CPI comes in hot, it could spark bullish momentum and push GBP/JPY through the 196.50 ceiling. On the other hand, dovish BOE commentary could reverse sentiment fast. For now, potential long entries could be considered near 194.60 support with targets toward 196.50, while shorts might be taken around the resistance zone with tight stops and confirmation. Always watch for breakout or rejection signs at these levels before committing.
by anakliarfx
GBP/AUD Trade Setup: Bullish Outlook Aligned with Fundamentals 📊 Market Insight: How Base Currencies Drive the Market One key lesson I’ve learned from my mentor is this: When a base currency is trending, it often pulls the entire forex market with it. For example: When the Dollar Index (DXY) is trending, the whole forex market tends to move with momentum. When the DXY is ranging, the entire forex market often consolidates or lacks clear direction. The same applies to EURUSD, another major pair. If EURUSD is trending, the whole market tends to trend. If it’s ranging, most of the market reflects that indecision. This happens because the USD and EUR are two of the most influential currencies in global markets — they affect risk sentiment, liquidity, and overall volatility. --- 🔍 GBP/AUD Analysis: The Power of Multi-Timeframe Perspective This week, I was analyzing GBP/AUD. My initial bias was bearish — I saw what looked like a clear drop and assumed the pair was falling. But I made a common mistake: I was zoomed in too closely, focused only on the lower timeframe structure. When I finally zoomed out to view the higher timeframes, I saw a different story: The market was not actually falling. What looked like a downtrend was just a retracement. It was a liquidity grab, tapping into demand zones and trendline support before continuing upward. This shift gave me clarity: GBP/AUD is still in a bullish trend and what I was seeing was just a setup for the next move higher. --- 🌍 Fundamental Bias: USD Weakness, GBP Strength Looking across the market: The Dollar Index is falling, signaling USD weakness. As a result, pairs like EURUSD and GBP/USD are rising. This tells me that GBP is currently strong, especially against weaker currencies like AUD. So, with GBP/USD trending bullish, it supports the idea that GBP/AUD will also rise, given GBP strength and AUD relative weakness. --- ✅ Trading Plan for the Week Ahead I use the weekend to prepare for the upcoming trading week by aligning my technical setups with fundamental bias. Current status: ✅ All technical confirmations are in place. ✅ My bias for GBP/AUD is bullish. 🕒 I’m waiting for the Monday open to see where price begins to trade from. 📉 Then I’ll drop to the lower timeframes (M15–H1) to find my entry. My targets are: 🎯 Target 1: Marked by the blue line on my chart 🎯 Target 2: Marked by the red line 🎯 Target 3: Higher up, beyond visible chart range due to screen limitations 💡 Final Takeaway This experience reinforces the importance of: Multi-timeframe analysis Zooming out to see the bigger picture Aligning technical setups with fundamental trends It’s not just about what the chart shows in the moment — it’s about the broader context driving the market.
Long
by Onyukwu
USDCHF COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend. 🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking. 📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage. 💊 Tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance. 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions. Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
by David_Perk
2
USDJPY COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend. 🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking. 📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage. 💊 Tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance. 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions. Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
by David_Perk
2
Opportunity for gold price to return to ATH: 3500✍️ NOVA hello everyone, Let's comment on gold price next week from 06/16/2025 - 06/20/2025 ⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold prices surged for a third straight session on Friday as geopolitical tensions flared following Israel’s military strikes on Iranian targets, including nuclear facilities and key leadership. The escalation sparked a broad risk-off move across global markets, fueling demand for safe-haven assets. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,422, marking a gain of over 1% on the day. The yellow metal briefly soared to a five-week high of $3,446 before paring gains, as traders took profits ahead of the weekend. The geopolitical unrest, combined with dovish signals from recent US inflation data, has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates later this year—despite improving consumer sentiment. Together, these dynamics continue to support the bullish momentum in gold. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Military tensions continue next week, which is a big boost for gold prices to continue rising above 3500. 🔥 Technically: Based on the resistance and support areas of the gold price according to the H4 frame, NOVA identifies the important key areas as follows: Resistance: $3488, $3502, $3562 Support: $3382, $3342 🔥 NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account - The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Nova-Scalper
1
GBPUSD COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend. 🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking. 📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage. 💊 Tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance. 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions. Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
by David_Perk
1
NASDAQ Daily Observation Scenarios & Probabilities In ContextCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! IG:NASDAQ BLACKBULL:NAS100 EIGHTCAP:NDQ100 Well obviously they're 3 possible outcomes but the idea is how we read the context in the upcoming week as the market unfolds each day. But, weighing the outcome based on the current news / fundamentals I would be leading towards 2/3 the the Bullish Long-Term Trend still holds true. My assumptions would be holding on to the news development of the Iran Israel conflict. Based on TA heavy we would be still be bullish but a good retracement as the Negotiations of ceasefire with market volatility increase as each time there's a news update with the Conflict & top that with the current Trump Tweets, Tariffs, FED Rate cuts. Market is weighing the value of this Conflict escalation and deciding the time to price it in. Because market is always forward thinking, IMO. I personally will be trading these scenarios each-day as the market updates me with NEWS, TA and mainly the Key Levels. As a day futures trader, I will be preparing for volatility. Not as much as the "Liberation Day Sell Off" or the "90 Day Tariff Extension Rally", but futures traders thrive in these kind of market conditions. It is also sad to hear about the news, or course fundamentally. I am also hoping for the market to make a strong stance absorbing it all with a positive outlook. Bullish Scenario: - Market ignores all the war in the Middle East and a rally continuation to make New All Time High. - News updates on the development of de-escalation war negotiations each day which ends up with a Weekly positive green candle. Neutral/Consolidation - News updates brings about both positive & negative impact causing market to range giving the opportunity for accumulation / distribution. Bearish - Bad news WAR escalation, Tariffs, Not enough Rate Cuts, Bearish Data. - Sell side Liquidity wipeout NOTE: * 2/3 outcome leaning Bullish because even when a retracement / pullback happens we will rally back up * since it's a daily observation, i will be looking into the Daily Key Levels of Support/Resistance, Fib Levels, Liquidity Zones, Volume Levels to be tested. * I wish all good luck and god bless. Thank You.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by Gone_Trading
EURUSD COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend. 🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking. COT Data Commentary – EURUSD (Last 5 Weeks) EURUSD climbed steadily from 1.11 to 1.15 over the past five weeks, and the COT reports consistently showed market makers increasing their long positions during this period. This steady accumulation aligns with the bullish price action and reinforces the strength behind the uptrend. Institutional interest seems to be backing the move, suggesting continued upside potential as long as positioning remains supportive. 📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage. 💊 Tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance. 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions. Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
by David_Perk
Short Uber to deathUber driver's pay is declining constantly. This week it reached the point where good drivers are quitting. The self driving technology to replace these drivers is not yet here. Uber will start absorbing the self driving cars maintenance costs. They will be surprised how much money it takes to have a running clean car. Uber jacked up riders prices to prepare for this; accounting them as insurance costs. Riders are looking more and more into cheaper alternatives. Public transportation is making a come back. Uber will be bankrupt with this model. Their biggest mistake is not taking care of their biggest asset; their drivers. I'm shorting UBER to their death.
NYSE:UBERShort
by gastonvazqz
NASDAQ Weekly Analysis TA & Fundamental News Alignment CME_MINI:MNQ1! IG:NASDAQ CME_MINI:NQ1! NASDAQ:NDX BLACKBULL:NAS100 Highest Probability for the upcoming week? Not looking good with the Friday news tension of Israel Iran war escalation. Not much of a selloff coming in, I guess the market is still in the wait and see mode of the upcoming weekend news development; could even be in the next week if the success of de-escalation negotiations. The TA sure look eerie though, big a** H&S formation completion of the last leg. If successful, could we well be in the recession? Will this scare off the FED and force them to CUT RATES? Smart money opportunity to buy another big dip? Have we been in a real proper pullback after a massive rally from "Liberation Day" ? I wonder why we can't break this level in the last week, could it be that the Smart Money selling to Retail? It sure does look like an exhaustion point doesn't it? BEARISH SCENARIO: - Final Leg of the H&S lead to a massive selloff by Retail and Smart Money buying the dip. - News WAR breakout with Iran vs Israel, with every development leading to a sell-off / rollover. - Weekend news leading to a massive gap lower in the Monday Asia Open. - Last week weekly candle close RED wick/shadow suggesting a strong resistance/ rejection level. A high-probability of the next candle will also be a RED Weekly Continuation? BULLISH SCENARIO: - Healthy Retracement and holding strong support levels. - Even for any bearish news the market holds & the participant buying power will maintain a healthy pullback. - Sweep up to the liquidity making New All Time High. NOTE: *This is a weekly analysis, Price Action within the week will reflect differently from day to day. *The outcome will only be projected by the end of next week. *Please do comment on your thoughts, a healthy discussion is always welcomed. *I am publishing my thoughts and context to the way I interpret the market, in no way I am giving any financial advise.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by Gone_Trading
Is SPX at a crucial point here.... inflection point?Until yesterday, it seemed that bulls were fully in control chugging along to make new ATH or go closer to previous ATH. Seemed like SPX was breaking from ascending triangle. Looked bulllish going into this Opex close, certainly propped by good data and good tariff comments. Now with the recent war news, and the dip we had yesterday, seems like new pattern emerging (rising wedge) which is bearish. Also keep in mind the JPM hedge that expires end of month. The open interest shows that JPM hedge is still alive (they havent closed) and based on my calculations currently JPM has a loss of around $622M. To stem losses market at minimum needs to be below 5900 by end of month (at 5900 JPM loses $59M but its chump change for them) and for them to be neutral or make money then SPX needs to be 5300 and below by end of month. Currently around 5975, would mean a drop of 500-600 points in next 2 weeks... certainly can happen.... Appreciate your comments!
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by Options_Life_
4