XAUUSD Technical Breakdown (1H + 4H Combo)
gold can spike briefly in early Tokyo session if BOJ doesn’t act immediately.
NO, it won’t last if BOJ hits the market or USD/JPY reverses.
1. Price Action – Tension’s High
• 4H: Classic Evening Star showing up. That’s a solid bearish reversal — sellers are circling.
• 1H: Weak bullish candle trying to break out, but it’s soft. Feels like bulls are exposed.
• Inside Bar on 1H: Tight, coiled range. Something’s about to pop — either a breakout or a flush.
2. Range Game – Price is Trapped
• Right now, we’re chopping between 3,154 – 3,160.
• Price is teasing strength but keeps rejecting resistance.
• Trap zone is active — don’t chase a late bull move here, that’s how you get clipped.
3. Indicator Signals – Read Between the Lines
• VWAP on 1H: Flat. Price is just above, but there’s no real conviction.
• Volume:
• 1H: Dropping off — sellers may be setting the bait.
• 4H: Climbing — looks like big money is getting ready to pull the rug after drawing in late buyers.
4. Trend Check – Short-Term Pullback Brewing
• 1H: Price is pushing into resistance — feels toppy.
• 4H: Overbought vibes, and bearish divergence is starting to creep in.
5. Volume – Telling the Real Story
• 1H: Weak follow-through. Buyers are drying up.
• 4H: Volume’s picking up, but it could be climax buying — one last push before it rolls over.
6. Key Zones – Support & Resistance
• Resistance: 3,160 – 3,175. Price hit it and bounced like it ran into concrete.
• Support: 3,132 – 3,122. That’s where buyers show up with bags of cash.
• A clean break below 3,154 opens the trapdoor.
7. Momentum – Running Out of Gas
• Bulls tried. They’re tired.
• No solid follow-through = bears lining up to take control.
8. Elliott Wave – The Final Push
• This looks like a stretched-out Wave 5. It’s spent.
• Correction Wave A likely on deck — target: 3,132.
9. Harmonics – Pattern Breaking Down
• Bearish AB=CD pattern forming, but the D-point never reached 3,172.
• It’s rejecting early — could be a heads-up for reversal traders.
10. Volatility – Calm Before the Storm
• Nikkei’s dropping — that’s risk-off. Could give gold a short-term pop.
• But if the BOJ steps in and the yen strengthens, USDJPY drops, and gold might not hold gains.
• No major moves out of Cambodia/Vietnam yet, but keep an eye on JPY volatility.
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Trade Setup – Asia Session Plan
• Order: Sell Stop @ 3,153.00 (wait for the breakdown)
• Take Profit: 3,132.00 (targeting the demand zone)
• Stop Loss: 3,163.00 (tight stop just above resistance)
• Confidence: 88%
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Why This Trade Makes Sense:
• You’ve got a bearish reversal on the 4H and no real volume to support a bullish breakout.
• A breakdown from this range opens up a clean downside run.
• Asia’s risk-off, but gold already reacted — the juice might be gone.
• 2.1 R:R setup — tight, sharp, and efficient.
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SHORT-TERM: Gold’s Got a Window – But It’s Narrow
• Nikkei’s drop = risk-off vibes.
• Tariff tension = safe haven demand rises.
• Asian traders might push XAUUSD up a bit early, sniffing fear in the market.
• If BOJ stays silent, gold pumps toward 3,162 - 3,170.
