XAUUSD Technical Breakdown (1H + 4H Combo)
gold can spike briefly in early Tokyo session if BOJ doesn’t act immediately.
NO, it won’t last if BOJ hits the market or USD/JPY reverses.
1. Price Action – Tension’s High
• 4H: Classic Evening Star showing up. That’s a solid bearish reversal — sellers are circling.
• 1H: Weak bullish candle trying to break out, but it’s soft. Feels like bulls are exposed.
• Inside Bar on 1H: Tight, coiled range. Something’s about to pop — either a breakout or a flush.
2. Range Game – Price is Trapped
• Right now, we’re chopping between 3,154 – 3,160.
• Price is teasing strength but keeps rejecting resistance.
• Trap zone is active — don’t chase a late bull move here, that’s how you get clipped.
3. Indicator Signals – Read Between the Lines
• VWAP on 1H: Flat. Price is just above, but there’s no real conviction.
• Volume:
• 1H: Dropping off — sellers may be setting the bait.
• 4H: Climbing — looks like big money is getting ready to pull the rug after drawing in late buyers.
4. Trend Check – Short-Term Pullback Brewing
• 1H: Price is pushing into resistance — feels toppy.
• 4H: Overbought vibes, and bearish divergence is starting to creep in.
5. Volume – Telling the Real Story
• 1H: Weak follow-through. Buyers are drying up.
• 4H: Volume’s picking up, but it could be climax buying — one last push before it rolls over.
6. Key Zones – Support & Resistance
• Resistance: 3,160 – 3,175. Price hit it and bounced like it ran into concrete.
• Support: 3,132 – 3,122. That’s where buyers show up with bags of cash.
• A clean break below 3,154 opens the trapdoor.
7. Momentum – Running Out of Gas
• Bulls tried. They’re tired.
• No solid follow-through = bears lining up to take control.
8. Elliott Wave – The Final Push
• This looks like a stretched-out Wave 5. It’s spent.
• Correction Wave A likely on deck — target: 3,132.
9. Harmonics – Pattern Breaking Down
• Bearish AB=CD pattern forming, but the D-point never reached 3,172.
• It’s rejecting early — could be a heads-up for reversal traders.
10. Volatility – Calm Before the Storm
• Nikkei’s dropping — that’s risk-off. Could give gold a short-term pop.
• But if the BOJ steps in and the yen strengthens, USDJPY drops, and gold might not hold gains.
• No major moves out of Cambodia/Vietnam yet, but keep an eye on JPY volatility.
⸻
Trade Setup – Asia Session Plan
• Order: Sell Stop @ 3,153.00 (wait for the breakdown)
• Take Profit: 3,132.00 (targeting the demand zone)
• Stop Loss: 3,163.00 (tight stop just above resistance)
• Confidence: 88%
⸻
Why This Trade Makes Sense:
• You’ve got a bearish reversal on the 4H and no real volume to support a bullish breakout.
• A breakdown from this range opens up a clean downside run.
• Asia’s risk-off, but gold already reacted — the juice might be gone.
• 2.1 R:R setup — tight, sharp, and efficient.
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SHORT-TERM: Gold’s Got a Window – But It’s Narrow
• Nikkei’s drop = risk-off vibes.
• Tariff tension = safe haven demand rises.
• Asian traders might push XAUUSD up a bit early, sniffing fear in the market.
• If BOJ stays silent, gold pumps toward 3,162 - 3,170.
Beyond Technical Analysis
JPY/USD: Bearish Triangle Pattern Breakout Towards TargetChart Pattern: Triangle Pattern
Pattern Description
Type: The chart identifies a Triangle Pattern, which is a type of consolidation pattern that can act as either a continuation or reversal pattern depending on the preceding trend and the breakout direction. Triangles are characterized by converging trendlines, indicating a period of indecision in the market as the price range narrows.
Specific Type: This appears to be a Symmetrical Triangle, as the upper and lower trendlines converge at a similar angle, suggesting neither buyers nor sellers have clear control during the consolidation phase.
Appearance on the Chart:
The Triangle Pattern is marked with two converging trendlines:
Upper Trendline (Resistance): Connects the lower highs, sloping downward.
Lower Trendline (Support): Connects the higher lows, sloping upward.
The pattern began forming around March 27, after a sharp downtrend, and continued until the breakout on April 2, 2025.
Breakout Direction:
Symmetrical Triangles can break out in either direction, but they often continue the preceding trend. In this case, the preceding trend was bearish (a sharp decline from 0.006720 to 0.006640), and the breakout is to the downside, confirming a bearish continuation.
The chart shows the price breaking below the lower trendline of the triangle around April 2, 2025, with a strong bearish candle, indicating a confirmed bearish breakout.
Key Levels and Trading Setup
1. Support Level
A horizontal support zone is marked around 0.006640 (approximately 0.00664–0.00665).
This level acted as a base during the triangle formation, with the price bouncing off this zone multiple times (e.g., on March 28 and March 31).
The price has now broken below this support, turning it into a resistance level on any potential retest.
2. Resistance Level
A resistance zone is marked around 0.006705 (approximately 0.00670–0.00671).
This level corresponds to a previous high within the triangle and aligns with the upper boundary of the triangle at the time of the breakout.
After the breakout, this resistance level is where the stop loss is placed, as a move back above this level would invalidate the bearish setup.
3. Target
The target for the breakout is projected at 0.006599 (approximately 0.00660).
This target is likely calculated by measuring the height of the triangle at its widest point (from the highest high to the lowest low within the pattern) and projecting that distance downward from the breakout point.
The chart indicates a potential move of -0.000604 (-0.96%), which aligns with the distance from the breakout level (around 0.006654) to the target (0.006599).
4. Stop Loss
A stop loss is suggested above the resistance level at 0.006705.
This placement ensures that if the breakout fails and the price moves back above the triangle’s lower trendline (now acting as resistance), the trade is exited with a manageable loss.
Trading Setup Summary
Entry:
The setup suggests entering a short (sell) position after the price breaks below the lower trendline of the Triangle Pattern, which occurred around April 2, 2025. The breakout is confirmed by a strong bearish candle closing below the trendline at approximately 0.006654.
Stop Loss:
Place a stop loss above the resistance level at 0.006705 to protect against a false breakout or reversal. The distance from the breakout level (0.006654) to the stop loss (0.006705) is 0.000051, representing the risk on the trade.
Take Profit/Target:
Aim for the target at 0.006599, which is the projected price objective based on the triangle’s height. The distance from the breakout level to the target is 0.000055, or a 0.96% move.
Risk-Reward Ratio:
The risk is 0.000051 (from 0.006654 to 0.006705), and the reward is 0.000055 (from 0.006654 to 0.006599), giving a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:1.08 (0.000055 / 0.000051). While this ratio is slightly above 1:1, it’s on the lower side for a typical trading setup, so traders should ensure high confidence in the breakout.
Additional Observations
Price Action Context:
Before the triangle formed, the price experienced a sharp decline from 0.006720 (March 23) to 0.006640 (March 27), indicating a strong bearish trend.
The triangle represents a consolidation phase within this downtrend, and the downside breakout suggests a continuation of the bearish momentum.
Volume and Momentum:
The chart doesn’t display volume or momentum indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD). However, a typical confirmation of a triangle breakout would include:
An increase in volume on the breakout candle, indicating strong selling pressure.
Bearish momentum signals, such as an RSI below 50 or a bearish MACD crossover.
Traders might want to check these indicators for additional confirmation of the breakout’s strength.
Timeframe:
This is a 1-hour chart, so the setup is intended for short-term trading, with the target potentially being reached within a few hours to a day.
Market Context:
USD/JPY is influenced by factors like U.S. dollar strength, Japanese yen safe-haven demand, and interest rate differentials. A bearish move in USD/JPY could be driven by a stronger yen (e.g., due to risk-off sentiment) or a weaker dollar (e.g., due to dovish U.S. economic data).
Conclusion
The TradingView idea presents a bearish setup for USD/JPY based on a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern on the 1-hour chart. The price has broken below the triangle’s lower trendline, confirming a bearish continuation with a target of 0.006599. The setup includes a stop loss at 0.006705 to manage risk, offering a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:1.08. Key levels to watch include the former support (now resistance) at 0.006640 and the resistance at 0.006705. Traders should consider additional confirmation from volume and momentum indicators, as well as broader market conditions, before executing the trade. Since this chart is from April 2, 2025, market conditions may have evolved, and I can assist with searching for more recent data if needed!
EURUSD 2April25Price seems o be consolidating within a channel preparing for a major move to the upside.
We are Bullish on 4h and 1h so, leaning towards only BUY scenarios... Not interested in any sell setups. Only getting proactive when price gets into our Areas of Interest as described in the video..
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Wednesday, 2nd April 2024)Bias: No Bias
USD News(Red Folder):
-ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Analysis:
-Strong rejection from ATH 3148
-Looking for bearish structure on lower timefram
-Potential SELL if there's confirmation on lower timeframe
-Pivot point: 3140
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Thursday, 3rd April 2024)Bias: Bullish
USD News(Red Folder):
-Unemployment Claims
-ISM Services PMI
Analysis:
-Strong bullish momentum after US tariffs being announced
-Looking for retest of the bullish structure
-Potential BUY if there's confirmation on lower timeframe
-Pivot point: 3100
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
LOOKING AT STRONG BUYif you look back a couple of weeks ago, the week of the 13 of March. US100 was sitting at a low price of 19143. This price was never swept the following week. US100 pushed further up until it reached its maximum price of 20322 for the last two weeks. Which was also support on 15 November 2024. Signaled a downward signaled a momentum, which eventually led to 1943 being swept by this downward movement (normally this would take 1 week any weekly high/low to be swiped). Now comes the case of the weekly high 20322(27/03/2025). Current price is pushing towards this price. However there is resistance level at 19800, which needs to be broken before we go for the weekly high(which is our TP).
Bitcoin Update: Testing Critical Resistance LevelsCurrent Market Analysis
Bitcoin is currently in a crucial position as it challenges the resistance of the downtrend channel.
The current price action shows that Bitcoin is testing a significant technical level that has acted as resistance throughout the recent downtrend. What makes this particular test interesting is that the supply signature appears to be weakening compared to previous instances when Bitcoin approached this resistance level.
The Importance of the Confluence Level
This represents a critical confluence point where multiple technical factors align, creating a stronger resistance zone. Breaking above this level would be technically significant as it could trigger what analysts refer to as a "Change of Behavior" in Bitcoin's price action.
A Change of Behavior often precedes larger trend reversals, making this current test particularly noteworthy for market participants trying to determine Bitcoin's next major move. However, caution remains the prevailing sentiment until confirmation occurs.
What Needs to Happen Next
The market remains skeptical about Bitcoin's ability to continue higher without first clearing this technical hurdle. This reflects the technical reality that downtrend channels often require decisive breaks on higher volume to confirm their invalidation. While early signs appear promising with selling pressure seemingly diminishing, a clear breakout has not yet materialized.
Volume Requirements for Confirmation
A key component missing from the current picture is sufficient trading volume to support a breakout. This highlights an important technical principle in market analysis: significant technical breaks generally require increased volume to validate the move and increase the probability of continuation. Without this volume component, fake breakouts become more likely, potentially trapping buyers who entered positions prematurely.
To summarize the current Bitcoin situation:
Price is testing the resistance of the downtrend channel
Supply signature (selling pressure) appears to be weakening
A break above the confluence level could trigger a Change of Behavior
Confirmation requires breaking above resistance with increased volume
While early signs of weakening selling pressure provide some optimism, a cautious stance remains appropriate until Bitcoin can decisively break above the confluence resistance level with appropriate volume confirmation.
Traders and investors should watch for this potential breakout, as it could signal a more significant shift in Bitcoin's price trend if the technical conditions described are met in the coming trading sessions.
Silver (XAG/USD) - Bearish Breakdown from Rising Wedge!Market Overview:
The Silver (XAG/USD) 1-hour chart reveals a Rising Wedge pattern, which is a well-known bearish reversal formation. This suggests that the recent bullish trend is losing momentum, and a breakdown could lead to a significant price decline.
🔹 Key Technical Analysis
1️⃣ Rising Wedge Formation & Breakdown
The price has been moving within a rising wedge, characterized by higher highs and higher lows but with weakening momentum.
A breakdown has occurred, confirming the bearish structure as the price has failed to sustain higher levels.
Historically, when a rising wedge breaks to the downside, price tends to drop by the same height as the wedge itself, which aligns with our projected target zone.
2️⃣ Price Action & Retest Possibility
After the breakdown, a retest of the broken wedge support (now resistance) around $33.50 - $33.80 could provide a potential short-selling opportunity.
If price fails to reclaim the wedge support, further downside pressure is expected.
3️⃣ Downside Target & Support Zone
The measured move suggests a decline towards the $31.00 - $30.60 region, which coincides with a strong historical support zone.
This area is highlighted as a potential profit-taking level for short trades.
📉 Trading Plan - Short Setup
🔸 Entry: Look for a rejection from the $33.50 - $33.80 zone (previous wedge support, now resistance).
🔸 Stop Loss: Above $34.00 to protect against false breakouts.
🔸 Take Profit: $31.00 - $30.60 (previous demand area).
🔸 Risk-Reward Ratio: Favorable setup, ensuring proper risk management.
🛑 Risk Factors to Consider
⚠️ If Silver regains strength and breaks back above $34.00, it could invalidate the bearish breakdown and shift momentum back to the upside.
⚠️ Macroeconomic events such as inflation data, Fed speeches, or geopolitical factors could influence price action unpredictably.
Gold (XAU/USD) Bullish Breakout: Next Target $3,181?"Key Observations:
Current Price: Gold is trading at $3,127.450 at the time of the chart.
Trend: The chart exhibits a strong uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows.
Support Levels: Several support levels are marked in the $3,010 - $2,999 range, extending down to around $2,906.
Resistance and Target:
The immediate price range is highlighted, suggesting possible consolidation.
A breakout above this range could lead to a target around $3,181.
Chart Annotations:
A retracement (red structure) indicates a short-term correction before continuation.
A breakout structure (black lines) suggests a previous significant upward movement.
The range and possible continuation are marked, indicating that the price may consolidate before attempting to reach the target.
Trading Perspective:
If price holds above the range, we may see bullish continuation towards $3,181.
A break below support levels could signal a deeper pullback towards $3,010 or lower.
This chart suggests a bullish outlook, with potential for more upside if momentum continues. Traders might look for confirmations before entering long positions.
The Day AheadWednesday, April 2
Data Releases: US March ADP report, February factory orders, Japan March monetary base, France February budget balance.
Central Banks: Speeches from Fed’s Kugler, ECB's Schnabel, and Escriva.
Trump Tariff Announcement: Trump’s team is finalizing options for a 4 p.m. announcement, considering a tiered system with flat rates or a customized approach.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Paradigm Shift: Markets in Tension over Trump's New TariffsBy Ion Jauregui - Analyst at ActivTrades
The recent announcement of tariffs by Donald Trump's administration has generated a wave of uncertainty in financial markets. This measure could trigger a forceful response from the European Union, marking a paradigm shift in global trade and in the European bloc's economic strategy.
Reactions in Europe and the ECB
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), has stressed the need for Europe to move towards greater economic independence. Her statements suggest that the EU will not back down from protectionist measures and that its fiscal and financial policy will have to adapt to this new global context.
It can be sensed from the statements that countries such as Germany and Italy, with a strong dependence on automotive exports, could be among the most affected. In addition, strategic sectors such as steel and aluminum would face an increase in production costs and possible interruptions in supply chains. Spain and Poland could be affected in the strategic raw materials sector as one of the most powerful net exporters in Europe. Especially Spain, given that it dedicates a large part of its aluminum exports to the North American country.
Economic and Financial Impact
A tariff-based trade war could slow growth, increase unemployment and generate a disinflationary or even deflationary environment not only in the United States but also in the European economic region. In this context, the bond market has begun to discount further interest rate cuts, reflecting declines in longer maturity yields and break-even inflation rates. Expectations of Europe, and even traditional allied countries Canada and its rapprochement with Europe, as well as Japan and Korea showing approaches to China, could be demarcating a red line for the White House in terms of its foreign policy form. What Trump will have to consider if the market begins to respond so negatively to such an “enemy of trade” attitude, and especially such a “bad friend” to his traditional allies. Another key factor to consider is the NATO-NATO section where Europe may eventually displace the US from the grouping.
DAX Analysis (Ticker AT: GER40)
The German index has started the Asian session with a sideways movement and 2 hours before the European opening there have been strong falls after the alliance comments in Asia. The situation of the index seems to have reached a floor around 22,241 points generating a possible support this Wednesday. If we look at the trend, the index has reached highs twice last month on March 6 and 18, marking on the second occasion a new milestone trading at 23,480.22 points, generating a return to a range where the index is comfortable this year between 22,918 points and 22,105 points, with the annual lows at 22,209.21 points. The current situation is indicating a possible golden crossover to reverse the current situation. The Current Control Point (POC) is located at 22,967.56 points, so it would not be unusual with the increase in volume and with an oversold RSI at 44.93%, it is possible that the index climbs to 22,522 points in its mid-range zone and try to pierce if the news accompanies the Euro zone and in particular Germany and the companies that make up the index. If this happens, we could see an advance to the upper part of the range slightly below the indicated checkpoint.
Future Outlook
If the Trump administration maintains its uncompromising trade strategy, pressure on European financial markets could intensify. The EU, for its part, will have to assess possible countermeasures to protect its economy and maintain stability in an increasingly challenging environment. At ActivTrades, we are closely following these developments and their impact on global markets.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Gold and Elliott Wave Theory.Wave 2(Green) was a Zigzag and we should expect a Flat correction for a Wave 4. An A Wave forms shortly after Wave 3 was formed and a Wave B should follow. B's have 3 waves-- two impulses and one corrective-- and in this case Wave A was a simple Wave that was corrected by a Flat for B(Black). Our last impulse is a 5 Wave move and is marked in Black. We are currently on Wave 4 which will be a Flat because 2 was a zigzag. We are currently on the last phases of the B wave(Blue) that comes before a C(Blue) also a 4(Black) in this case. A retest at the 261.8% would spark a Wave 4.
GBP/JPY showing the Bulls some love !!As i write this down GBP/JPY teases us with a triangle on a 1h timeframe with a break and test... and maybe a confirmation?
195.00 level is also there - giving us extra confirmation
the YEN showed some strength since the year began maybe because of the ongoing Japanese fiscal year ending up in march,
but since we are talking about fiscal years, UK's fiscal year concludes in April ! ( during fiscal year end companies tend to repatriate their offshore capital for several reasons: Tax Optimization, Financial Reporting, Dividend Payments, Debt Servicing, Currency Exchange Considerations, Strategic Investments) - this ensure a increased demand for the specific currency making it raise in value ( supply and demand 101)
so where are we at right now:
- Fundamentals favor the GBP in the near term future ( other fundamentals must be taken into consideration - do some research tell me what you find)
- Technically we see an opportunity to profit for the coming fundamentals even tough is a good chance this setup is not the start line of the race upwards
when it comes to Taking profits the only level that comes into mind is 198.200 (not a guarantee but a possibility)
- Other Technical's
the currency sits above the YTD Anchored VWAP and the march Anchored VWAP for some time now,
in terms of Market Structure we see higher highs on the 4h/Daily and previous highs taken out ( feb high and Jan high) - this an uptrend no doubt
For day traders:
on the lower timeframes we see some head & Shoulders formations gearing up
1min_ chart completed H&S
5m_chart H&S in construction -
and if I'm stretching my luck a bit maybe another H&S on the 15 min
that's all there is to it!
Whatever your trading remember to take the risks into consideration and always do your own analysis before taking a decision !!
I'm still new to sharing ideas on the community - don't start throwing rocks now if your Bearish :D
-Not financial Advice !
FedEx: Balancing Act or Precarious Gamble?Recent market activity highlights significant pressure on FedEx, as the logistics giant grapples with prevailing economic uncertainty. A notable drop in its stock price followed the company's decision to lower its revenue and profit outlook for fiscal year 2025. Management attributes this revision to weakening shipping demand, particularly in the crucial business-to-business sector, stemming from softness in the US industrial economy and persistent inflationary pressures. This development reflects broader economic concerns that are also impacting consumer spending and prompting caution across the corporate landscape.
In response to these domestic headwinds, FedEx has adopted a more conservative operational stance, evidenced by a reduced planned capital spending for the upcoming fiscal year. This move signals an emphasis on cost management and efficiency as the company navigates the current economic climate within its established markets. It suggests a strategic adjustment to align spending with the revised, more cautious revenue expectations.
However, this domestic caution contrasts sharply with FedEx's concurrent and ambitious expansion strategy in China. Despite geopolitical complexities, the company is making substantial investments to enlarge its footprint, building new operational centers, upgrading existing gateways, and increasing flight frequencies to enhance connectivity. This dual approach underscores the central challenge facing FedEx: balancing immediate economic pressures and operational adjustments at home while pursuing a long-term, high-stakes growth initiative in a critical international market, all within an uncertain global environment.
GBPJPY LONGSLongs Taking us further up, following price breaking out of the bearish channel. since price has broken out we should expect a pull back/ retracement to retest the broken trend.
AOI @ 193.318 this is the level where we will see price come back to retest and our longs should be active. Targeting highs @195.998
QQQ is Breaking the Trendline – Could the Tech Rally be started?Market Structure & Price Action:
QQQ has broken out of a descending channel and printed a CHoCH to the upside around $471, shifting structure into a bullish stance. The breakout follows a clean reversal from the red demand zone near $463, suggesting institutional interest around that area. Price is now consolidating near $473.5–$474 after a strong 3-bar rally and retest of prior highs.
Supply & Demand Zones:
* Demand Zone (Support): $463–$465
* Supply Zone (Resistance): $495–$497 (unmitigated upper green zone)
Support & Resistance Levels:
* Immediate Resistance: $474 (minor psychological level, aligning with trendline retest zone)
* Major Resistance: $495–$497 (overhead supply)
* Support Levels: $470 > $465 > $463
Indicators:
* MACD: Still bullish, but showing some slowing momentum – histogram flattening.
* Stoch RSI: In overbought territory – may suggest short-term consolidation or pullback.
* Volume: Rising on the breakout, confirming strength.
Options GEX + Sentiment Analysis:
* Gamma Walls:
* CALL Wall (Resistant): $472 (64.62%) – Price is currently sitting above this wall.
* Next Gamma Cluster: $474–$476 (GEX9/GEX10) – Potential short-term magnet.
* PUT Wall Support:
* $465–$463 zone aligning with strong GEX put support and HVL (0DTE) – strong defense.
* IV Rank (IVR): 40.6
* Implied Volatility vs Average (IVx avg): IV is above avg at 3.27%
* Sentiment: PUTS 52.6% | GEX shows 🟢🟢🟢🟡 (Bullish leaning but hedged)
Trade Scenarios:
* Bullish Scenario:
* If QQQ holds above $472 and sustains above the GEX CALL Wall, we may see a move toward $476–$480.
* A breakout above $480 could open the door for a test of the $495–$497 upper supply zone.
* Bearish Scenario:
* Rejection at $474 and failure to hold $470 could push price back toward the $465–$463 demand zone.
* Breakdown below $463 would invalidate the bullish thesis in the short term.
Conclusion:
QQQ is showing strength after breaking the descending structure, and options positioning supports a slow grind higher unless it gets rejected at $474. Watch for consolidation or a clean breakout to confirm momentum continuation. Bulls want to defend $470 on any pullback.
WMT Approaching Key Resistance! Will It Break Above $90?🧠 Price Action & Market Structure:
WMT has made a powerful push off the $84 demand zone after forming a CHoCH reversal and strong impulsive candles. The 1-hour chart shows a clean breakout from the falling wedge structure, confirming bullish intent. Price is consolidating inside a smaller green SMC supply zone just under $89. Watch closely for either a clean break above $89.11 or rejection from this level.
🔍 Key Support and Resistance:
* Immediate Resistance: $89.11 (local high)
* Next Resistance: $90.00 psychological + Gamma wall
* Support 1: $87.00
* Major Demand Zone: $84.00–$85.00
📈 Indicator Insights:
* MACD is neutral after prior bullish momentum.
* Stoch RSI shows slight cooling, nearing midrange after previously being overbought.
* EMAs are stacked bullishly with 9 EMA above 21 EMA – trend remains intact.
📊 GEX (Options Sentiment) Breakdown:
* Highest Positive GEX: $90.00 — CALL Resistance / Gamma Wall
* Highest Negative GEX: $91.00 — PUT Wall
* Options Flow Sentiment:
* IVR: 58
* IVx avg: 29.5
* GEX: 🟢🟢🟢 (very bullish)
* Put/Call $ Flow: Only 0.2% in PUTs — very bullish
📌 Trade Scenarios:
Bullish Breakout:
* Entry above $89.20
* Target: $90.50 → $93
* Stop Loss: Below $88.25
Rejection Play (Fade Gamma Wall):
* Short from $89.00–$90.00 if candles weaken
* Target: $87
* Stop Loss: Above $90.50
🔮 Outlook:
WMT is showing strength and positive sentiment in the options chain. As long as $87 holds, the bias remains bullish. Break and close above $90 could lead to gamma squeezing toward $92–$93.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
Having no position is also position- EURUSD - Official Tarrifs
Dear Traders, Investors and every interested person
I dont going to lie Im trough hard weeks maybe months after Trump became president although I’m sure you too. As of 01/04/2025 we are just few hours away to enjoy our rollercoaster ride in the amusement park of the USA GOVERMENT. Their old-new attractions is about tariffs and reciprocal tariffs.
Those who’s are not familiar what is a tariff I recommend reading this part those, whose already going to the bed and waking up with it may skip it the following section.
A **tariff** is a **tax imposed by a government on imported or exported goods**. It's one of the tools countries use in international trade policy. Here's a breakdown:
Types of Tariffs :
1. Import Tariff – tax on goods coming **into** a country. ( We are dealing with this curently)
2. **Export Tariff** – tax on goods going **out** of a country (less common).
Why Governments Use Tariffs:
Protect domestic industries by making foreign products more expensive.
Generate revenue for the government.
-Retaliate against unfair trade practices or tariffs from other countries.
Example:
If the U.S. places a **20% tariff** on imported French wine, that means any French wine imported into the U.S. will have an additional 20% tax added to its price. This makes domestic wine relatively cheaper, helping local producers compete .
___________________________________________________________________________
As of April 1, 2025, President Donald Trump has implemented or announced tariffs affecting a wide range of goods from multiple countries. Here's a summary of the current tariff measures
Tariffs on Canada and Mexico
February 1, 2025: President Trump signed executive orders imposing a 25% tariff on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico, citing concerns over illegal immigration and drug trafficking.
-March 4, 2025: These tariffs took effect, leading to retaliatory measures from both countries.
April 2, 2025: Tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods from Canada and Mexico, which had been temporarily exempted, are set to be enforced.
Tariffs on China
-February 1, 2025: An additional 10% tariff was imposed on imports from China due to the country's alleged failure to curb the export of fentanyl precursors and address money laundering activities.
March 4, 2025: The tariff rate on Chinese imports was increased to 20%
Global Tariffs - COMMING
April 2, 2025 President Trump has declared this date as "Liberation Day," marking the implementation of new tariffs aimed at addressing trade imbalances.
Reciprocal Tariffs The administration plans to enforce tariffs that match the rates other countries impose on U.S. goods, effectively applying a **20% tariff** on most imports.
Automobile Imports: A specific 25% tariff on imported passenger vehicles, light trucks, and key automobile parts is set to take effect on April 3, 2025.
Tariffs on the European Union- Because we treated very badly.....
-February 26, 2025: President Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from the European Union, with a particular focus on the automotive sector.
Secondary Tariffs on Oil Imports
March 2025: The administration has threatened secondary tariffs on countries importing oil from Russia and Iran. This means that nations purchasing oil from these countries could face U.S. tariffs if they continue such trade while also engaging with the American market.
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In case of you get lost between the dates please take look at the
Comprehensive Tariff Table – President Trump (2025)
as of 01/04/2025
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Hereafter I would like turn your attention to the period of 28/02/2025 - 19/03/2025
What caused this relentless and, for many traders, painful +5.35% upside move under 19 days?
🇩🇪 Germany has unveiled a comprehensive fiscal strategy involving substantial investments in both infrastructure and defense sectors over the next decade. Here's a breakdown of the planned expenditures:
Infrastructure Investment:
€500 Billion Special Fund : The government has established a €500 billion special fund dedicated to infrastructure and climate-related projects over a 12-year period. This fund is designed to modernize critical systems, including energy grids, transport networks, digital infrastructure, education, and healthcare facilities. Notably, €100 billion of this fund is earmarked specifically for climate action initiatives aimed at achieving carbon neutrality by 2045.
Defense Spending:
Exemption from Debt Brake: In a significant policy shift, Germany has amended its constitutional "debt brake" to exempt defense and security expenditures exceeding 1% of GDP from borrowing limits. This adjustment effectively removes the previous cap on defense spending, allowing for increased investments in military capabilities.
Projected Defense Expenditure: While exact figures may vary based on annual GDP and specific defense needs, this exemption is anticipated to facilitate approximately €400 billion in additional defense spending over the next 10 years.
This fiscal policy measures does not take place often, but honestly signs were on the market that something is cooking at the back: Someone knows something that I dont. And you neither.
XETR:DAX from 01/January/2025 was not too much reason for the steady increase in the shadow of the trade war.
FX:EURUSD just look at the price actions from 01/January/2025 till the German gov announcement.
I could not explained for myself fundamentally what is happening. Why I see huge positioning with towards the upside when we still facing measures which can push major economies in the EURO AREA as France and Germany more deeper under the water where they already been.... No economic data refuted my findings.
Anyway, after all I said to myself let’s wait meanwhile, I was shorting the EUR because I felt the possible damage of the planned measures are not correctly priced in. (Interest rate parity, industrial production under 50 ( which means contraction) and a few other things. )
03/03/2025 Thats when everything got sense. Lesson learned: If you feel something do not suppress it especially when the signs are that strongs as above mentioned period.
The effect: All Europen goverment bond yields skyrocketed TVC:DE10 TVC:FR10
Why ? The German plans means that the goverment needs money and market said well i need return so I will finance you +3% and 2,30%
Bonds market are the real drivers behind the currency movements and this case the effect was drastic. In order to buy eur denominated bonds you need euro, therefore you exchange your currency to euro.
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Tomorrow questions is whats will be new in terms of tarrifs?
I do expect that soon the inflation will edge higher in the US which can trigger US bonds yield to increase significantly, but is will lead for short term dollar gain.
USA is playing with the fire since if their avarage debt interest payments will be +5% thats will open darker boxes soon than in 2008. Much darker.
So thats why I would enjoy the short term currency gain which is autonomous and than exchange my dollar to euro everywhere.
GOLD XAUUSD – SNIPER PLAN 2 APRIL 2025👇
🦁 GOLD XAUUSD – SNIPER PLAN 2 APRIL 2025 📆
📍 Macro & Political Context
🗞️ Geopolitical Tension: Ongoing war in Ukraine + fresh tariff threats from Trump are sparking investor fear. Safe-haven flows into gold continue.
💰 Fundamentals: Inflationary fears remain strong. Market eyes the US NFP later this week. Fed is silent... too silent. 👀
🌍 Central banks are still buying gold – clear sign of institutional appetite.
🔍 Market Structure Overview
Trend: Bullish HTF ✅
Current Price: $3,113
All-Time High: $3,148 (Reached recently – likely liquidity swept!)
Last Valid BOS: H1 and H4 both show bullish structure, but a correction is brewing. 🍃
📊 Key Technical Zones & Confluences
🔻 Sell-Side Liquidity Below
📌 $3,100 – Clear liquidity pool (equal lows + psychological level)
🔥 Below $3,100 to $3,085 – Strong imbalance zone + unmitigated FVG
🧲 Expectation: Price may grab liquidity here before next leg up
🔷 Imbalance + Discount Zone
📉 $3,085–$3,095 – Massive H1/H4 imbalance. Could be a POI if price breaks $3,100
🧱 Valid Demand OB (H1) inside this zone + FIBO 61.8% retracement from last impulse
🔺 Premium Rejection
🧱 H1/H4 OB near $3,135–$3,145 = Price sharply rejected = probable redistribution zone
✂️ This was also the weekly high, which got swept = liquidity taken
🎯 Plan of Action
🟢 Scenario 1: Long Entry from Discount Zone
"Let them take the liquidity, we take the reversal!" 💸
Entry Zone: $3,085 – $3,095
Confluence:
Valid H1 OB (confirmed with PA)
Imbalance zone
FIBO 61.8% + structure break
Sell-side liquidity sweep from $3,100
Confirmation: M15 CHoCH + Bullish engulfing or low volume sweep
SL: Below $3,078
TP1: $3,130
TP2: $3,145
TP3: $3,150 (liquidity magnet again)
🔴 Scenario 2: Short if Price Pushes Back to $3,140+
Catch the premium short 🧨
Entry Zone: $3,140 – $3,148
Confluence:
All-time high sweep (liquidity trap)
HTF OB rejection
Weakness shown on M15
Confirmation: M5-M15 CHoCH + engulfing
SL: Above $3,155
TP1: $3,125
TP2: $3,100
TP3: $3,085
🧠 Final Notes
📌 Be reactive, not predictive – wait for PA confirmation at POIs
📰 Watch news – especially unexpected geopolitical catalysts or Fed surprise
🧘♂️ Stick to risk management. At ATHs, volatility is high and manipulation common.
👉 If this breakdown helped you, don’t forget to FOLLOW for more sniper setups and smash that ❤️ LIKE button to show some love!
Your support keeps this 🔥 content coming!
AUDCHF time to see changes?
OANDA:AUDCHF much upsides-downsides we are not see some special moves here from start of Mart.
Today we are have RBA, AUD looks like its gather power, currently price exepcting to come in zone and break of same expecting in this week.
CHF showing self weak and with other pairs, like CAD and GBP.
SUP zone: 0.55000
RES zone: 0.56200, 0.56600
SPY at a Pivotal Zone – Bounce or Breakdown? 🧠 Market Structure + Price Action (1H)
* Trend: Downtrend confirmed. Recent Break of Structure (BOS) followed a Change of Character (CHoCH) from bulls to bears.
* Bearish momentum intensified after SPY broke support near 570.90, then plummeted through 564.85 and 558.11 key demand levels.
* Current price: 554.15 — bouncing slightly within a local demand/reaction box, but still under selling pressure.
* Price is now consolidating below structure, but inside a potential reaction zone (possible dead cat bounce or minor retracement).
🔍 Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
* CHoCH & BOS align with institutional exit behavior. The BOS confirms bearish intent.
* SPY has entered a minor demand zone, but hasn’t reclaimed any bullish market structure yet.
* If it breaks below 549.68, the next support zone opens toward the 540s.
🔁 Indicators
MACD:
* MACD is starting to curve up, with histogram showing decreasing red momentum – a potential bounce brewing.
Stoch RSI:
* Oversold condition with both lines crossing upward — supports a short-term relief rally or retracement.
🔥 GEX & Options Sentiment Analysis
* IVR: 37.8 (Moderate); IVx Avg: 22.6
* Put Positioning: Very high at 71% — bears are loaded up.
* GEX Sentiment:
* GEX is red 🔴🔴🔴 — strong gamma exposure to puts, favoring downward pressure.
* Highest negative NETGEX / PUT Support at 555.83, which is just above current price — this acts as a magnet and pivot.
* If SPY stays below this level, dealer hedging accelerates selling.
* Major Put Walls at:
* 545: GEX8 at -22%
* 544-540: Very deep bearish gamma — potential acceleration if we break lower.
* Call Resistance (Gamma Wall):
* 573 → 577 → 580 zone = Gamma ceiling.
* Dealers short calls here and hedge by selling, which adds resistance on rallies.
⚖️ Trade Scenarios
🐂 Bullish Reversal Setup:
* Trigger: Break & close above 555.83 with volume.
* Target: 558.11 → 564.85
* Invalidation: Below 549.68
* Risk/Reward: Favorable if volume confirms.
🐻 Bearish Continuation Setup:
* Trigger: Break below 549.68 with follow-through.
* Target: 545 → 540 zone (GEX & PUT walls)
* Stop-Loss: Above 555.83 or structure retest
* Confluence: GEX alignment + broken structure + dealer flow pressure.
🧭 Directional Bias:
Bearish bias still intact — but signs of short-term bounce forming. Likely we see a dead cat bounce unless 555.83 is reclaimed with conviction.
🎯 Actionable Strategy:
* Intraday scalp: Long toward 558 if price reclaims 555.83.
* Swing short: Below 549.68 toward 540 using SPY or PUT options.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.