Get started

Beyond Technical Analysis

BTC To new ATH, Let's bet!For my followers, they know I dont usually write out the reasons for a trade during the week unless on weekends, reason been the nature of my trades. I enter on market orders and then I post, any time wasted to be outlining reasons will make them not to enter the trade. BTC is still bullish, I know the bears are coming, they always do, I know the cycle will end, it always does but now is not the time. Main reason is, everyone is now bearish. The chart hasn't also showed bearish signs, just retracement. I highlighted below 100k as my next POI because of the liquidity there, I've been buying since yesterday, I hope you do too. If not, this is another opportunity. For those that said R:R is big, Learn to hold your winning trades please, in that way you'll maximize profit and also reduce frequency of trades. If you can't, just open a new account, fund $100 and then trade my signals there. The account will be bigger than your main account by this years ending. I trade forex too, if you've any question regarding how you'll do this, ask away in the comment section I will show you how I do it Now someone said we wont be seeing a new ATH. I think he is very wrong and knows nothing. I will attach a post I made when BTC went below 77k and I was bullish and I outlined the reasons there. Enjoy Please, hold this trade. Follow me as my trades are market orders, so you'll see them no time and enter them on time.
ICMARKETS:BTCUSDLong
by UGBOR
Bitcoin Under PressureBitcoin remains mired in a bearish trend as price action struggles below key moving averages—the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day—all of which point to sustained downside pressure. On the higher timeframes, a clear descending trendline from the April–May highs remains firmly intact, reinforcing the macro downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to hover in the neutral-to-lower zones, with recent bounces still failing to cross bullish thresholds. A short-term relief rally emerged post-news volatility, with price attempting to retest the supply zone between $103.9K and $104K—a region of confluence with bearish Fibonacci levels and previous order blocks. However, rejection at this level could set the stage for a further breakdown, targeting the $96.3K–$95.5K range. In the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes, Fibonacci retracements and a climbing RSI suggest short-term relief is plausible, but a lower high formation would confirm continued bearish control. BTC remains technically vulnerable despite short-term bounces, while geopolitical events and U.S. policy narratives shape market sentiment. Yet behind the volatility, continued ETF inflows, stablecoin stability, and altcoin resilience signal a market that, while cautious, remains fundamentally engaged. Traders and investors alike should stay focused on key resistance levels for BTC, monitor developments in Middle Eastern tensions and U.S. crypto policy, and watch ETF and stablecoin flows as barometers of broader market conviction.
Short
by lesnermj
Check 350.47 support (HA-MS indicator interpretation method) Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (HD 1D chart) Can the HA-MS indicator be applied to stock charts?!!! The conclusion is that it can be applied to all charts. However, since the stock market is traded one week at a time, you cannot collect stocks corresponding to the profit of the coin market. Since the coin market can be traded in decimals, you can create a medium- to long-term trading strategy by selling the purchase amount when realizing profit and collecting the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profit. The basic trading strategy is to buy near the HA-Low indicator and sell near the HA-High indicator. However, when conducting short-term trading, you need to be careful to check whether the price is above or below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart. If the price is below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, you need to respond quickly and quickly in the form of day trading. Therefore, it is important to find stocks that maintain their price above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart if possible. If you are familiar with day trading, you can conduct trading according to the basic trading strategy regardless of the location of the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart. However, since the HA-Low or HA-High indicators are intermediate values, they may proceed in the opposite direction to the basic trading strategy depending on whether there is support. In other words, if the HA-Low indicator is resisted and falls, there is a possibility of a stepwise downtrend, and if the HA-High indicator is supported and rises, there is a possibility of a stepwise uptrend. To confirm this, you need to check the movement of the auxiliary indicator PVT-MACD oscillator indicator and the OBV indicator consisting of the Low Line ~ High Line channel. One thing to keep in mind here is that there are differences depending on the situation, whether it is a decline or an increase. In other words, if the HA-Low indicator declines, there is a possibility of a stepwise decline, but the end is an increase. This means that if the HA-Low indicator shows a stepwise decline, you should focus on finding the right time to buy. On the other hand, if the HA-High indicator rises, there is a possibility of a stepwise rise, but the end is a decline. Therefore, if the HA-HIgh indicator shows a stepwise rise, you should focus on finding the right time to sell. ---------------------------------------------- Looking at the current price position based on the above, the price is located near the HA-Low indicator. However, since the price is located below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, it is recommended to approach the transaction in a short and fast short-term trading (day trading) manner. The PVT-MACD oscillator indicator is showing a downward trend below the 0 point. In other words, it should be interpreted that the selling force is dominant. The OBV indicator is showing signs of breaking through the Low Line upward. However, since the Low LIne ~ High Line channel is not showing an upward trend, caution is required when trading even if the price is rising until it turns into an upward trend. Therefore, the key is whether there is support near 350.47, which is the HA-Low indicator point. If it receives support and rises above the M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart and maintains the price, it is highly likely to turn into an upward trend. At this time, since the HA-High indicator of the 1M chart is formed at the 363.37 point, there is a high possibility that it will act as resistance near this point. Therefore, if you are going to make a mid- to long-term investment in this stock, it is recommended to check for support near 363.37 or near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart. Otherwise, if you are thinking of buying in installments, you can buy whenever it shows support on the HA-Low indicator regardless of the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart. This is because the end of the stepwise downtrend on the HA-Low indicator is ultimately an uptrend. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful transaction. --------------------------------------------------
NYSE:HD
by readCrypto
USDT.D LONG - MID TERM PLANUSDT.D is one of the best tools to understand what's happening in the crypto market. It shows the dominance of USDT across the entire space — and has a strong inverse correlation with BTC and crypto assets. Technicals: USDT.D is approaching its long-term support trendline. I expect a deviation below that line — possibly toward the 0.75 Fibonacci level — before a strong move up. That move could last 1–3 months, which means more downside for alts during this time. Plan: Shorting altcoins — especially ETH-related tokens and memecoins. Looking to buy back around early August.
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DLong
by UA_CAPITAL
9
Long-Term Growth Opportunity Awaits Breakout Targets: - T1 = $140.00 - T2 = $145.00 Stop Levels: - S1 = $133.00 - S2 = $130.00 **Wisdom of Professional Traders:** This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Palantir Technologies. **Key Insights:** Palantir Technologies has established itself as a leader in AI and big data analytics, consistently attracting investor interest due to its strong positioning in key markets. The stock demonstrates resilience near $135, which serves as psychological support, while contracts with government and enterprise sectors add further stability to its growth story. Palantir's innovative solutions and its ongoing expansion into commercial sectors are critical drivers of the bullish outlook. **Recent Performance:** Palantir's recent price movements have showcased its ability to maintain relative strength despite broader market volatility. The stock has remained favorably positioned near its upper-tier price range, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Institutional investors have shown confidence near the $135 level, which serves as a springboard for further upward movement. **Expert Analysis:** Market experts emphasize Palantir's focus on AI advancements and its role as a strategic partner in government and enterprise operations. This positions the company as a standout player within the data analytics landscape, with continued demand for its services reflecting market optimism. The firm’s technological expertise and its resilience within competitive sectors underpin its long-term growth potential. **News Impact:** Recent developments, including government contracts and advancements in artificial intelligence technology, significantly bolster Palantir's outlook. Strategic initiatives to diversify its services and increase penetration into commercial sectors have improved investor sentiment and strengthened the bullish thesis. As AI-related services gain traction globally, Palantir remains well-poised to capture sustained demand and market expansion. **Trading Recommendation:** Investors should consider a LONG position in Palantir Technologies, capitalizing on its innovative offerings and strong growth catalysts. The $135 level presents a solid support zone, with price targets at $140 and $145 reflecting near-term opportunities for gains. Tailored stop-loss levels ensure risk mitigation while maintaining exposure to the stock's upward potential.
NASDAQ:PLTRLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Report – June 23, 2025Geopolitical Shock: U.S. Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Sites Redefine Market Landscape The Trump administration’s decision to authorize precision airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities marks a major escalation in Middle East hostilities, significantly reshaping the global risk environment. Seven B-2 stealth bombers originating from Missouri carried out a long-range mission that deployed bunker-busting GBU-57 bombs on Iran’s underground nuclear installations in Fordow and Natanz. Additionally, Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from a U.S. submarine struck facilities in Isfahan. Pentagon officials describe “extremely severe damage,” though assessments remain preliminary. The attack also marks the first known combat use of the GBU-57, highlighting both the symbolic and tactical weight of the operation. While the U.S. maintains it is not at war with Iran but targeting its nuclear program specifically, Iran's leadership views this as a red-line breach. Tehran's immediate retaliation has so far focused on Israeli targets, but broader reprisals against U.S. assets and personnel in the region appear imminent. The Revolutionary Guards and Houthi allies have threatened to strike U.S. vessels in the Red Sea and disrupt oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy markets. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that no additional strikes are planned unless American interests are targeted, yet the situation remains highly unstable. Trump’s narrative aims to project decisive strength while avoiding a prolonged conflict. However, whether this operation achieves a limited military objective or drags the U.S. into broader war remains uncertain. Part 2: Energy Markets Under Siege – Oil Price Dynamics and Strategic Implications The U.S. airstrikes on Iran have triggered a spike in oil prices as markets react to the heightened risk of regional escalation. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude futures climbed 2.5% and 2.4% respectively in early Asian trading, pricing in immediate geopolitical risk. Front-month Brent is now hovering around $78.89 per barrel, with analysts forecasting potential surges to $90–$100 per barrel should supply chains be disrupted, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, the transit route for up to 30% of the world’s seaborne oil. According to Danske Bank, a complete closure of the strait could slash global oil supply by over 18 million barrels per day, equivalent to nearly 20% of daily output. That would constitute the most severe supply shock since the 1970s oil crises. Phillip Nova and ANZ analysts stress that while prices have initially stabilized, much of the “war premium” has yet to fully materialize unless Iran retaliates aggressively or Western energy infrastructure is damaged. OPEC+ spare capacity may act as a temporary buffer, but traders are increasingly positioning for long-term supply insecurity. The oil volatility index (OVX) has already surged to a five-year high, outpacing the VIX and reflecting concentrated hedging behavior via bullish options. Goldman Sachs reports an “extreme skew” in call options on crude futures, indicating strong institutional conviction for upward price movement. Panmure Liberum projects that a sustained 20% increase in oil prices over the next three months could boost European energy sector returns by 7.8%, with EPS growth forecasts across the sector already at 18%. U.S. oil majors like Exxon Mobil, APA, Devon Energy, and Diamondback Energy are poised to benefit given their dividend discipline and asset-light structures. Exxon, for instance, is forecast to yield 3.5% while paying out ~60% of 2025 net income, higher than industry average but seen as sustainable in a $90 oil environment. Part 3: Inflation Dynamics, Fed Strategy, and the Impact of Tariffs Markets are navigating a complex monetary landscape as the Federal Reserve grapples with rising price pressures, many of which stem from tariff-induced cost increases and geopolitical instability. The next major indicator, May’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, is expected to show headline inflation at 2.3% year-on-year (up from 2.1% in April) and core PCE at 2.6% (from 2.5%). These figures, while modest, are significant because they suggest that President Trump’s April tariff hike is beginning to feed into real consumer prices. Economists warn this is only the beginning. ING analysts describe the current calm as “the calm before the storm,” expecting tariff-driven price hikes to become visible from July onwards. If inflation accelerates further, it would seriously challenge the Fed’s ability to justify rate cuts, particularly as Powell continues to emphasize a “data-driven” and “risk-managed” approach. Markets had been pricing in two rate cuts for 2025, beginning in October. However, stickier inflation and rising geopolitical risks make this increasingly uncertain. Powell recently admitted to being in a “very foggy time,” indicating that clear signals are lacking. Traders are now more cautious, and the Fed itself remains split: 10 out of 19 officials favor rate cuts this year, while 7 expect no cuts at all. This divergence is exacerbated by real-world shocks, particularly Trump's foreign and trade policies. For example, the April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff package disrupted supply chains and added upward pressure on goods costs, despite some temporary demand surges as businesses front-loaded inventory. That trend has started to fade, and the inflationary effects are taking hold. Analysts like Krishna Guha of Evercore ISI suggest that unless the labor market deteriorates meaningfully, the Fed will be reluctant to stimulate and risk fueling further inflation. Part 4: Global Trade Shifts, China’s Export Strategy, and the U.S.–China Financial Decoupling In response to U.S. tariffs and geopolitical instability, China is aggressively reorienting its trade and capital strategies. Trade data shows a sharp decline in Chinese exports to the U.S., but a simultaneous and strategic pivot toward Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. In May, Chinese exports to Europe jumped 12% year-on-year, with Germany alone rising 22%, while shipments to Southeast Asia rose 15%. Factory owners across Zhejiang province, China’s second-largest exporter, are scrambling to secure new markets and insulate their operations from escalating U.S. trade barriers. This shift is more than tactical, it reflects a structural decoupling from the American consumer market. Tariff rates on many Chinese goods remain above 50%, with fears that Trump may reinstate even more punitive measures. Factory managers report that U.S.-bound shipments now account for a shrinking share of their revenues, some dropping from 60% to 30% within a year. Manufacturers like Shaoxing Sulong Outdoor and Shaoxing Shangyu Lihua are expanding to Europe, the Middle East, and local e-commerce platforms. The Chinese government is reinforcing this shift with subsidies for export credit insurance, trade fair attendance, and initiatives to promote domestic consumption of export-grade goods. Zhejiang province alone is nurturing 100,000 cross-border e-commerce sellers and partnering with supermarkets and online marketplaces to absorb unsold inventories. Simultaneously, the financial relationship between the U.S. and Chinese markets is deteriorating rapidly. Since 2019, over 80 Chinese companies have delisted from U.S. exchanges. The NYSE and Nasdaq now host less than 2% of their capitalization from Chinese stocks, a dramatic decline from the heyday of IPOs like Alibaba’s in 2014. More recent listings have been small, speculative, and at times scandal-ridden, such as the collapse of Luckin Coffee. Washington is actively pressuring U.S. pension funds and financial institutions to divest from Chinese companies. The SEC faces mounting pressure to ban firms with alleged ties to the Chinese Communist Party, slave labor, or national-security threats. Even China’s own regulators are pushing top companies like Shein and Didi to list in Hong Kong or remain private. As a result, Hong Kong has become the main IPO venue for major Chinese firms, aided ironically by Wall Street banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America. This trade and financial decoupling underscores a broader geopolitical realignment, with profound implications for investors. The U.S.–China economic axis that once drove global growth is fracturing, and capital is flowing toward more politically aligned markets. Part 5: Energy Markets, Oil Price Risks, and the U.S.–Iran Escalation Following President Trump’s direct military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, global oil markets are in a state of heightened alert. The initial operation involved B-2 bombers deploying 14 bunker-buster bombs on Fordow and other key nuclear sites, with additional cruise missiles launched from U.S. submarines. This first-ever combat use of the GBU-57 “Massive Ordnance Penetrator” demonstrates the severity of Washington’s commitment to dismantling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure without formally entering a prolonged war. Despite Trump’s assertion that “we’re not at war with Iran,” Tehran and its proxies have begun retaliatory strikes, primarily against Israel for now. But threats from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, potential disruptions in the Red Sea by Houthi forces, and calls in Tehran to shut the Strait of Hormuz raise red flags for global energy markets. The Strait handles 20–30% of the world’s oil flow, and its closure would amount to an 18 million barrels/day supply shock, nearly 20% of global output, per Danske Bank analysis. The market’s reaction has been swift but measured. Brent crude surged to $78.89/bbl (+2.4%) and WTI to $75.67/bbl (+2.5%), as investors priced in a “war premium.” Yet the oil market remains in limbo: while sentiment is bullish, actual supply disruptions have not materialized. As CBA’s Vivek Dhar notes, the real driver of $100+ oil will be evidence of shipping blockades or facility destruction, not speculation alone. Brent at $90–95 is plausible in the event of retaliatory action by Iran. Goldman Sachs’ analysis of three-month options skews shows the highest implied volatility for bullish calls versus bearish puts in 25 years. This reflects overwhelming investor demand for upside exposure, a rare pricing pattern signaling traders expect a substantial rally. ANZ and RBC Capital also highlight the rising risk of damage to Gulf infrastructure, which could catapult prices well beyond current levels. Yet markets have shown remarkable resilience. The VIX remains muted compared to the 2023 tariff shock, while crude volatility (OVX) is spiking, indicating that energy markets are absorbing geopolitical risk far more intensely than equities. This divergence implies that energy stocks and commodities could outperform broader indices in the event of further escalation. Strategically, investors are rotating into dividend-paying oil stocks with solid fundamentals. APA (yield 4.9%), Diamondback (2.6%), Devon (2.8%), and Permian Resources (4.1%) all pay less than 40% of 2025 net income in dividends and offer upside if oil prices remain above $70. ExxonMobil, yielding 3.5%, is more leveraged to price but offers size and balance sheet strength. Canadian producers like ARC Resources (2.4% yield, aggressive buybacks) are also drawing attention due to flexible capital strategies. Conclusion: The energy sector is now a frontline investment space in geopolitical strategy. While oil may already reflect a partial war premium, any actual disruption, particularly in Hormuz, will send prices sharply higher, potentially reigniting inflation and delaying Fed rate cuts. Investors should be prepared for volatility, but also opportunity, especially in energy equities and structured trades such as call spreads on ETFs like USO. Part 6: Market Reaction, Credit Liquidity, and Investor Positioning Under Geopolitical and Policy Stress The intensifying geopolitical turmoil, centered around Trump’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, has not yet catalyzed a market crash, but beneath the surface, cracks are forming in credit spreads, investor sentiment, and sector participation. The S&P 500, while only 3% off its all-time high, is displaying signs of internal weakness masked by headline stability. Over the past two weeks, the index has traded in a narrow 1.8-point range, the tightest since December 2024. This tightness reflects both indecision and complacency. While major indices remain resilient, a concerning breadth divergence is emerging. Fundstrat’s Mark Newton reports that the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average has slipped below 50%, and just under 40% are above their 20-day average. The equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF is down 1.5% over the past month, while tech-driven cap-weighted indices remain buoyant, suggesting fragility if megacaps falter. Volatility metrics confirm the growing divergence. The Cboe Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index has spiked to near five-year highs, while the equity VIX remains muted. This divergence, as noted by Citi’s Scott Chronert, shows how geopolitical risk is being priced into oil, not equities, a phenomenon that cannot persist indefinitely. Quant Insight notes a waning correlation between the VIX and S&P 500 moves, suggesting that risk appetite is higher than it appears, or that equity markets are underestimating tail risks. On the macro front, the Fed’s wait-and-see posture continues, with Powell reiterating uncertainty over the inflation trajectory amid tariff pressures. While headline CPI for May came in at 2.4%, below expectations, core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to tick up to 2.6% in May from 2.5% in April. Analysts, including ING, warn this may be the “calm before the storm,” as July’s data begins to reflect full tariff pass-through. The futures market is still pricing in two rate cuts this year, beginning in October, but expectations remain fragile and data-dependent. Credit markets are showing early signs of tightening. Though no full-scale panic is evident yet, spreads on lower-grade debt have widened modestly as investors reassess risk in a stagflationary environment. Liquidity remains thin in parts of the high-yield market, and primary issuance has slowed. In contrast, investment-grade debt, especially from oil majors and defense contractors, is gaining interest as investors reposition portfolios to benefit from war-driven fiscal priorities. Internationally, appetite for the U.S. dollar has diminished in Asia, per DBS strategists. Asian currencies like the SGD and HKD have appreciated, reflecting inflows as investors diversify away from dollar assets. Meanwhile, Japanese government bonds (JGBs) have seen heightened demand, with yields falling across the curve following a strong 5-year auction. The BOJ is not expected to raise rates aggressively, keeping Japanese yields attractive amid global uncertainty. Conclusion: The global financial system is at a precarious crossroads. Equities are holding, but under the surface, technical deterioration and volatility divergence are flashing warning signs. Fixed income markets are rotating into quality, especially defense- and energy-related names. Liquidity is tightening slowly, with further stress likely if oil breaches $90 or core inflation surprises to the upside. Part 7: Sector-Specific Analysis, Strategic Positioning, and Outlook for the Week Ahead As geopolitical uncertainty and policy ambiguity persist, investors are increasingly turning to select sectors and assets that offer resilience, strategic leverage, or asymmetrical upside. Below is a breakdown of how key sectors are positioned and what the market dynamics suggest for the coming days and weeks: 1. Energy Sector: Oil’s Strategic Premium With the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites and Tehran’s potential retaliation, including threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets are on edge. Brent futures are up 2.4% at $78.89, while WTI has jumped to $75.67. Analysts including CBA’s Vivek Dhar see $100/barrel as a viable short-term target if Iran substantially disrupts shipping. ANZ’s Daniel Hynes notes a supply shock could push oil to $90–$95/barrel. Danske Bank warns that a full Hormuz closure would cut global supply by nearly 20 million barrels/day, almost 20% of the total. This dwarfs past supply shocks and would be catastrophic for both inflation and industrial production globally. Investor Strategy: Focus on large, low-cost producers with strong dividend policies and hedging flexibility: Exxon Mobil (XOM): 3.5% yield, diversified base, strong dividend coverage. APA & Diamondback (FANG): Payouts below 40% of earnings, asset returns aligned with industry averages. Permian Resources (PR) & Devon Energy (DVN): U.S.-centric and operationally nimble. Canadian producers like ARC Resources also offer supplemental upside, blending modest yields (2.4%) with capital returns via buybacks. 2. Defense & Aerospace: War-Driven Tailwinds With the U.S. explicitly targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure using B-2 bombers and GBU-57 bunker busters, defense stocks are gaining renewed attention. The U.S. is unlikely to launch further strikes unless provoked, but the scale of this preemptive action elevates long-term defense spending prospects. Investor Strategy: Defense majors such as Raytheon (RTX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) benefit from this new operational reality. The U.S. is already building out missile defense in the Middle East, while allies like Israel are expected to increase their defense procurements, potentially financed with U.S. foreign aid. 3. Technology: Internals Weakening Amid Breadth Divergence Despite megacap tech keeping indices afloat, breadth is deteriorating. Over 60% of S&P 500 stocks now trade below their 50-day moving averages. The equal-weighted S&P 500 is down 1.5% in the past month vs. a 3% rise in tech-focused ETFs. Investor Strategy: Exercise caution with overexposed names. Consider reallocating toward: Broadcom (AVGO) and Nvidia (NVDA): For AI exposure, but take partial profits. Shift some exposure into infrastructure tech or AI-software-as-a-service plays with earnings durability but lower valuations (e.g., Salesforce (CRM)). 4. Small-Caps and International Equities: Tactical Diversification Domestic small-cap stocks continue to underperform, but foreign small-caps, especially in non-tariff-affected sectors, offer compelling value. Funds like Brandes International Small Cap and Avantis International Small-Cap Value ETF are outperforming with annualized returns over 15%. Managers are targeting niche names such as: Magyar Telekom (Hungary) – 50% market share, local monopoly. Japan Elevator Service Holdings – strong growth, 23% profit margins. Investor Strategy: Use actively managed vehicles with deep on-the-ground research or ETFs with proven quantitative screens. 5. Credit & Bonds: Return to Quality With the Fed cautious on rate cuts amid reaccelerating inflation, bond investors are shifting back to high-quality, longer-duration instruments. Corporate credit is showing early-stage stress, particularly in lower tranches. Investor Strategy: Focus on investment-grade debt, especially from oil and defense issuers. Allocate to long-duration Treasuries for capital protection. Avoid high-yield for now unless oil prices breach $90 sustainably. 6. Vaccine & Pharma Sector: Under Pressure from Political Appointments RFK Jr.'s appointment and the firing of the immunization advisory committee has spooked biotech investors. Stocks like Moderna and Novavax are down 36% and 18%, respectively. Merck, though not a pure play, is down 17% as fears grow that existing recommendations (e.g., Gardasil) could be rolled back. Investor Strategy: Caution is warranted. Some companies may benefit long-term if the FDA holds the line, but political risks will weigh heavily in the short term. Look to companies with broad portfolios and global exposure. 7. AI & Regulation: Big Tech’s Shield Big Tech is lobbying for a 10-year federal ban on state-level AI regulation. If passed, this would shield companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta from fragmented compliance costs. Critics call it a power grab, but the budget bill’s passage by July 4 would solidify their advantage. Investor Strategy: Maintain core positions but expect growing scrutiny. Midcap AI companies may benefit from looser oversight and acquisition potential. 8. China Trade & Delistings: Fragmenting Global Markets More than 80 Chinese companies have delisted from U.S. exchanges since 2019. Delisting pressures are accelerating amid scrutiny over VIE structures and national security concerns. While some IPOs continue on Nasdaq, most are speculative and illiquid. Investor Strategy: Reduce exposure to U.S.-listed Chinese ADRs. Instead, access Chinese growth via Hong Kong listings or multinational partners (e.g., Samsung, Taiwan Semiconductor). Macro Summary: Risk-Reward Outlook Bullish Forces: Oil supply shock potential, defense spending, tech lobbying gains. Bearish Forces: Inflation upside risk, Fed delay, tariff pass-through, credit deterioration. Neutral/Mixed: Equity index stability masking internal weakness. Part 8: Portfolio Positioning, Asset Allocation, and Thematic Strategy for the Weeks Ahead With the macro landscape defined by geopolitical escalation, domestic political uncertainty, and global supply-side risk, investors face an increasingly bifurcated environment—one where aggregate indices appear calm, but sector-specific volatility and dispersion are rising. As a senior analyst advising institutional portfolios, I recommend the following strategic blueprint: 1. Recommended Portfolio Allocation (Short-Term Tactical Tilt) Asset Class Weighting (%) Change Rationale U.S. Equities 35 ▼ Breadth deterioration and tech overextension. Favor quality over growth. International Equities 20 ▲ Hedge against USD volatility. Favor Europe ex-UK, Japan, and small-caps. Energy & Commodities 15 ▲▲ Brent-WTI divergence and Hormuz risk support overweight. Bonds (IG + Duration) 20 ▲ Rates on hold, but inflation limits downside. Extend quality duration. Cash / Short Duration 5 — Maintain dry powder for dislocations. Alternatives (AI, Infra, Private Credit) 5 ▲ Focus on uncorrelated return streams. 2. Equity Sector Positioning Overweight: Defense & Aerospace: Geopolitical risk justifies premium. Lockheed Martin, Northrop, RTX. Energy/Oil: Strong cash flows, resilient dividends. Exxon, Chevron, APA, Devon. International Small Cap Value: Strong relative returns, less tariff exposure. Brandes, Avantis, Pzena. Neutral: Mega-Cap Tech: Maintain core exposure but rebalance to reduce momentum risk. Industrial Cyclicals: Mixed macro signals. Exposure through diversified ETFs preferred. Underweight: Consumer Discretionary: Inflation sticky, credit card delinquencies rising. Biotech/Vaccine: Regulatory overhang, sentiment risk from RFK Jr. policies. 3. Fixed Income Guidance Duration: Increase duration cautiously. Prefer U.S. Treasuries and munis with >7-year tenor. Credit: Focus on investment grade. Avoid HY unless oil stays >$90/bbl. Inflation Protection: Position in short/intermediate TIPS to hedge against tariff-related CPI pressure. 4. Tactical Thematic Plays Strait of Hormuz Shock Hedge: Buy USO ETF Aug $84–$94 call spread for high upside/defined loss. Overlay with short Aug $75 puts for those comfortable owning on a pullback. AI Lobbying Success: Long MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, especially if Senate passes regulatory moratorium. Mid-cap AI names (Palantir, Snowflake) as tactical trades. China De-Exposure: Rotate from ADRs to HKEX listings or U.S. multinationals with China-lite exposure. Consider India or Vietnam ETFs as structural beneficiaries of decoupling. Defense of Democracy Theme: Long nuclear, aerospace, cyberdefense (BWX Technologies, Cameco, Palantir). Cameco AP1000 export boost = significant EPS uplift in Q2. Credit-Card Squeeze: Avoid heavily consumer-exposed banks. Monitor delinquency rates; shift to non-bank lenders or fintechs with better risk models. 5. Policy Event Calendar (Key Risk Dates) Event Date Impact Iran Retaliation Window Next 5–10 days High – Oil spike, market risk-off FOMC Commentary & PCE Data June 28, 2025 Medium – Market path for Sept/Oct rate cuts Trump Tariff Signing Deadline July 9, 2025 High – CPI spike trigger, inflation repricing Senate Budget Finalization July 4, 2025 Medium – Tech regulatory outlook clarity Eurozone PMI & ECB Presser June 25–28, 2025 Medium – EUR/USD, global growth confidence
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
Weekly Red Candles Signal Potential PullbackOn the weekly chart, two clean red candles have formed. The price is struggling to move higher — every attempt to break above is being sold off. An additional factor is geopolitical tension, which puts extra pressure on bullish momentum. After such an exponential rally, I expect at least a pullback . Could there be a new high and breakout above resistance? Yes, it's possible. But the current setup offers a clear stop-loss just 1.60% below the current price — a small and comfortable risk. This is not a quick trade. I plan to hold the position anywhere from 1 week to 1 month, depending on how the market develops. Therefore, I choose an optimal position size for my account, knowing that margin will be frozen.
SP:SPXShort
by kventinka
Can Geopolitics Redefine Market Risk?The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which analysts widely dub the "fear gauge," currently commands significant attention in global financial markets. Its recent surge reflects profound uncertainty, particularly from escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While the VIX quantifies market expectations for future volatility, its current elevation signals more than mere sentiment. It represents a sophisticated repricing of systemic risk, capturing the implied probability of significant market dislocations. Investors find it an indispensable tool for navigating turbulent periods. The dramatic escalation of the Iran-Israel proxy conflict into a confrontation, involving the United States, directly fuels this heightened volatility. Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities on June 13, 2025, prompted swift Iranian retaliation. Subsequently, on June 22, the U.S. launched "Operation Midnight Hammer," conducting precision strikes on key Iranian nuclear sites. Iran's Foreign Minister immediately declared diplomacy over, holding the U.S. responsible for "dangerous consequences" and vowing further "punishment operations," including a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This direct U.S. military intervention, particularly targeting nuclear facilities with specialized munitions, fundamentally alters the conflict's risk profile. It moves beyond proxy warfare into a confrontation with potentially existential implications for Iran. The explicit threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global chokepoint for oil supplies, creates immense uncertainty for energy markets and the broader global economy. While historical VIX spikes from geopolitical events often prove transient, the current situation's unique characteristics introduce a higher degree of systemic risk and unpredictability. The Cboe VVIX Index, measuring the VIX's expected volatility, has also risen to the higher end of its range, signaling deep market uncertainty about the future trajectory of risk itself. The current environment necessitates a shift from static portfolio management to a dynamic, adaptive approach. Investors must re-evaluate portfolio construction, considering long exposure to volatility through VIX instruments as a hedging mechanism, and increasing allocations to traditional safe havens like U.S. Treasuries and gold. The elevated VVIX implies that even the predictability of market volatility is compromised, demanding a multi-layered risk management strategy. This specific confluence of events might signify a departure from historical patterns of short-lived geopolitical market impacts, suggesting geopolitical risk could become a more ingrained and persistent factor in asset pricing. Vigilance and agile strategies are paramount for navigating this unpredictable landscape.
CBOE:VIXLong
by UDIS_View
ADL | Direction: Neutral to Bullish | Valuation| (June 23, 2025 ADL | Direction: Neutral to Bullish | Key Reason: Valuation Re-rating Potential | (June 23, 2025) 1️⃣ Insight Summary ADL is trading near its book value and showing modest sales growth. Although profits are very low, there's speculative potential if margins improve or the sector attracts investor attention. 2️⃣ Trade Parameters Bias: Neutral to Long (speculative) Check out the chart. 3️⃣ Key Notes ✅ Valuation – Trades close to book value, offering some downside cushion if fundamentals improve. ❌ Weak profitability – Earnings are almost flat; valuation appears stretched without consistent profits. ✅ Stable ownership – High promoter holding, no signs of aggressive leverage. ❌ Low liquidity – Very limited average trading volume may impact order execution and price volatility. ✅ Sector catalyst potential – If building materials or housing themes gain traction, small-cap names like ADL could benefit. 4️⃣ Follow-up Note I’ll reassess this trade setup after upcoming earnings or on a confirmed break above current resistance with volume support. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is the best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
NSE:ADLLong
by Risk_Adj_Return
A bullish position on GME as price action indicates resilience Targets: - T1 = $24.75 - T2 = $25.81 Stop Levels: - S1 = $23.00 - S2 = $22.79 **Wisdom of Professional Traders:** This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in GameStop’s price action. **Key Insights:** GameStop's ongoing transition from brick-and-mortar retail to an increasingly digital and e-commerce-focused business model continues to make it an intriguing investment prospect. The company is refocusing on collectible merchandise and leveraging its loyal gamer-oriented customer base, which suggests growth potential even amidst uncertain macroeconomic conditions. Technical indicators reveal steady accumulation phase, implying confidence in its long-term appeal from institutional investors or seasoned traders. Another important factor for GameStop comes from its niche appeal within the digital gaming realm, which could act as a counterbalance to broader economic pressure on retail stocks. As consumer trends shift towards experiential gaming content and small-scale collectibles, GameStop’s pivot could forge stronger competitive positioning. **Recent Performance:** Over the past month, GameStop has demonstrated relative resilience despite broader market volatility. While retail stock performance largely suffered under the weight of waning consumer confidence, GameStop remained compressed within a narrow range, indicative of investors cautiously accumulating shares ahead of potential catalysts. Recent price movements showcase a stock finding footing near key support levels amidst growing trading volume—a bullish signal. **Expert Analysis:** Technical analysts highlight bullish divergence seen in proprietary oscillators, supporting an upside bias. On top of this, institutional inflows remain consistent over recent weeks, reinforcing sentiment for a continuation rally. GameStop’s ongoing transformation efforts into the direct-to-consumer digital gaming experiences mitigate risks associated with economic downturns. Overall liquidity levels in equities support limited downside risk for the stock in the short term. A close above the $23.60-$23.75 range would confirm upside momentum, with price challenges towards the $25 area by short-term swing traders. Seasonal factors within the gaming industry further support a possible upswing as Q4 approaches, a period notably associated with higher consumer spending on gaming products. **News Impact:** Recent headlines around global economic instability, such as geopolitical conflicts and inflation concerns, have put pressure on consumer discretionary sectors. However, no significant negative news specific to GameStop or shifts in its competitive landscape recently emerged. Updates on ongoing cost-streamlining measures from the leadership team could clarify its financial positioning even further. News in the digital gaming ecosystem, particularly around cloud-based or subscription models, may provide opportunities to reinforce positive sentiment. **Trading Recommendation:** For traders considering a position in GameStop, its ability to maintain price levels near $23 while navigating retail stock challenges suggests bullish potential for the near term. Current momentum indicators and volume patterns support initiating a LONG position. Target 1 at $24.75 offers an achievable upside within a week-long timeframe, while Target 2 at $25.81 provides an extended outlook should market conditions corroborate the existing upward bias. Traders are advised to set stop-loss levels at $23.00 and $22.79, managing downside risk effectively.
NYSE:GMELong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
PayPal poised for recovery as fintech sector evolves Targets: - T1 = $72.15 - T2 = $74.55 Stop Levels: - S1 = $68.75 - S2 = $66.50 **Wisdom of Professional Traders:** This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in PayPal. **Key Insights:** PayPal’s stock displays resilience amid broader fintech sector challenges, finding stable ground at its 50-day moving average—a key technical support level. Regulatory uncertainties surrounding stable coins and digital currencies present challenges but also potential opportunities for growth. The company’s robust technical positioning suggests room for upside, especially if the broader fintech sentiment improves. PayPal’s leadership in the digital payment landscape and its push into cryptocurrency transactions, coupled with potential advancements in financial technology and partnerships, highlight its long-term potential. However, near-term volatility is expected given the tight regulatory landscape and macroeconomic pressures. **Recent Performance:** PayPal’s recent performance has mirrored broader market movements in the fintech sector. The stock has hovered around its key technical support levels, showing signs of stabilization. Despite bearish macro trends in digital finance, PayPal has displayed resilience, maintaining its position above critical price points. **Expert Analysis:** Market analysts are divided on PayPal, with some citing regulatory risks as significant headwinds and others emphasizing its technical setups and long-term growth opportunities. The stock’s ability to hold its ground even amid sector-wide challenges suggests that it has potential for recovery in the medium-to-long term. Professional traders view PayPal as a potential buy, particularly for those willing to ride out near-term instability for future upside gains. **News Impact:** Recent regulatory developments concerning stable coins and cryptocurrency transactions have undeniably influenced PayPal’s outlook. While regulatory pressure remains a concern, potential breakthroughs or clarifications in these domains could unlock new opportunities for growth in digital payments and fintech innovation. **Trading Recommendation:** Given current technical resilience and long-term growth prospects, a LONG position in PayPal is recommended. Traders should carefully monitor regulatory shifts and macroeconomic conditions while taking advantage of the stock’s potential to rebound. Key targets have been outlined for near-term gains while keeping stop-loss levels conservative to mitigate downside risks.
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Why Soybean Oil Outperforms Crude Oil?From their recent lows, soybean oil has quietly crept up by 50%, while crude oil has risen by 40%. The reason goes beyond the recent renewal of tensions in the Middle East — it runs deeper than that. Mirco SoybeanOil Futures Ticker: MZL Minimum fluctuation: 0.02 per pound = $1.20 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by konhow
Bullish Opportunity with Strong Technical Signals Targets: - T1 = $110.00 - T2 = $117.00 Stop Levels: - S1 = $104.00 - S2 = $102.00 **Wisdom of Professional Traders:** This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Shopify. **Key Insights:** Shopify's bullish pennant pattern is signaling strong upward potential, with market sentiment favoring tech stocks. Seasonal strengths during the winter offseason provide additional clarity for positive performance in challenging macro conditions. Traders may find an opportunity to capitalize on Shopify’s momentum. **Recent Performance:** Shopify’s stock has shown stable price movement with signs of bullish momentum. The formation of a bullish pennant indicates an imminent breakout possibility, as traders maintain interest in tech-focused equities experiencing similar technical setups. **Expert Analysis:** Analysts highlight Shopify’s positioning among tech leaders, leveraging its seasonal advantages and strategic focus on merchants during less competitive periods. Along with positive chart formations, expert sentiment supports the view of upward price movement. **News Impact:** No major recent announcements were noted; however, Shopify’s offseason strategies have reinforced optimism in its ability to innovate and grow amidst fluctuating economic conditions. Technical signals underline its potential for positive performance in the short term. **Trading Recommendation:** Traders should take a bullish position on Shopify given its favorable technical signals and seasonal advantages. The breakout potential, coupled with stable market sentiment, makes this an attractive opportunity for upward movement toward the defined price targets.
NASDAQ:SHOPLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Potential 3000+pips on XXXUSD PairsGBPUSD We anticipate a potential bullish move towards the 1.3540 region, from there, we'll be watching closely for sign of exhaustion to initiate a short position, targeting up to 300pips to the downside. A confirmed daily close below the 1.2270 level will serve as out trigger to hold the short position with confidence, EURUSD For this market, we remain cautiously bearish. A 4H timeframe close below the 1.3950 region will be our signal to begin more sells to the downside targets around 1.3400 and 1.12800 zones. Until that breakdown occurs, we'll remain on the side-lines to avoid premature entries. XAUUSD Gold will be traded with a high level of discipline- only high conviction trades will be taken here. We're currently waiting for a clear breAK and close below the 3291.90 level before initiating any shorts positions. Until then, we maintain a neutral stance and monitor price action closely around key levels. USOIL We're keeping an eye on possible entry opportunities, anticipating a potential rally towards the 116 region. Updates on the setup and validation criteria will follow as price action unfolds. Send a direct message if you are interested in more info about Capital Management. Patience is the Way! Ieios
TVC:USOIL
by Ieios
NVDA at a Decision Point! (June 24–28)NVDA at a Decision Point! Gamma Walls and CHoCH Setups in Play 🔥 🔍 GEX Analysis (Options Sentiment Overview) * Current Price: 143.85 * Key Gamma Levels: * GEX Support Zone: 140 → 141 (Major PUT Support with -28.46% positioning) * PUT Wall Zones: 139, 138 (risk of acceleration below 140) * Resistance Above: 146 → 149 range (Highest positive GEX @ 150, dense CALL walls up to 155) * GEX Interpretation: * Above 146: Triggers a mild-to-strong positive gamma squeeze potential. Clear air to 150 → 155. * Below 141: Exposes NVDA to negative gamma drift toward 138 and possibly 134. * Sentiment Metrics: * IVR: 3.9 (Extremely low) * IVx avg: 43.6 * Options Skew: Call $ flow only at 4.5% → suggesting lower speculative bullish bets currently. 📈 Technical Structure – 1H SMC Breakdown * Trend: Currently in a consolidation range with a breakdown attempt under ascending channel and CHoCH shift. * CHoCH Confirmed: Multiple bearish CHoCHs signal change of character at the highs. * Rejection Zone: 145.48 → 146.20 (purple supply zone holding) * Support Demand Zone: 140.86 → 142.20 (green box below where buyers may defend) * Break of Structure (BoS): Under 143.13 opens the door to revisit lower demand zones. ⚔️ Trade Scenarios 🟩 Bullish Scenario * Entry: Above 146.20 reclaim (post-break and retest) * Target 1: 149.00 * Target 2: 150.50 → 155.00 * Stop Loss: Below 143.50 * Confluence: Gamma squeeze + reclaim of CHoCH rejection = fuel to upside 🟥 Bearish Scenario * Entry: Breakdown below 143.13 with confirmation * Target 1: 141 * Target 2: 138 * Stop Loss: Above 145.50 * Confluence: Bearish CHoCH + gamma wall at 140 could act like a magnet 📌 What to Watch * GEX Pivot: 146.20 → Key reclaim level to watch early week. * Volume Clues: Last drop had strong volume surge → If it sustains below 144, favor bearish flow. * Intraday Bias: First retest of 144 → 145 zone may be a short opportunity unless bulls absorb and flip structure. 💡 Quick Thoughts * NVDA is stuck in a high-volatility zone between a strong CALL wall cluster above and PUT support danger zone below. * If macro or SPY drags, the 140 wall could get tested quickly. * On the flip side, a reclaim of 146.20 is an easy trigger for bulls to squeeze to 150 and potentially 155. 📉 Bias: Slightly bearish unless bulls reclaim 146.20 and hold.
🎯 Most Important Level This Week: 146.20 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by BullBearInsights
Bitcoin Short: Wave CAfter a 6-days move up after we have hit our target in the previous analysis, I think Bitcoin has completed what I think to be the Wave B and is already on the Wave C run down. Over in this video, I expressed my personal viewpoint that Bitcoin is not a hedge against the dollar and that it is actually a risk-on/off product more similar to the equities markets like the S&P500. I recommend that anyone who is interested to perform a study on the correlation and beta Bitcoin. I suggested that the reason why it more closely related to the equity markets is due to it's deep integration within the financial sector (e.g. ETFs, structured products from banks). Given that I think that the equity markets are primed to crash soon, I think that Bitcoin will follow suit. Good luck!
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by yuchaosng
ETH UPDATE Eth is at a major strong support of 2200. But i dont think this gonna hold much longer and we will go for the blue box, Reason is bitcoin, btc broke the major major support of 100k and gave a 4h closing below 100k which is a breakdown of a sentimental support too. Look for short, dont long right now until market cools down from the war. If iran retaliates and a war officially breaks then were going to 90k or below, we also have a cme gap around that point Stay safe everyone
BINANCE:ETHUSDShort
by sksr1919
ENA At Make-or-Break Demand — Long-Term Thesis on the Line🎯 BINANCE:ENAUSDT Trading Plan: Scenario 1 (Reversal from Demand): Watch for strong reaction in demand zone ($0.24–$0.20) Long-term entries on confirmation (H4/D1 SFP or reclaim above demand) Scenario 2 (Breakdown): No trade if $0.20 breaks with high volume/no bounce Next demand much lower, patience required 🔔 Triggers & Confirmations: Wait for clear reversal signal in HTF demand before entries No knife catching if breakdown occurs 📝 Order Placement & Management: 🟩 Watch Zone: $0.24–$0.20 (set alert) 🛡️ Stop: Below $0.20 (on breakdown confirmation) 🚨 Risk Warning: This is the last major demand before price discovery lower Only enter if there’s clear strength or volume spike on reclaim
Long
by Goldfinch_song