USDT.D & BTC Price Action Understanding the Market Move: USDT.D, BTC.D, and BTC Price Action
Currently, USDT Dominance (USDT.D) is approaching a key level, sweeping its previous high. This indicates that traders are moving funds into stablecoins, usually a sign of risk aversion. Due to its inverse correlation with Bitcoin (BTC), this movement suggests that BTC may experience further downside in the short term.
However, once Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) completes its retest of the previous high, a major shift is expected. If BTC.D starts to decline sharply, it means capital is flowing back into altcoins and BTC itself. Historically, this pattern has led to strong bullish momentum for Bitcoin, potentially triggering a major rally.
This dynamic between USDT.D, BTC.D, and BTC price action is crucial for traders to anticipate market movements. Keeping a close watch on these metrics can provide valuable insights into the next big move in the crypto market.
Beyond Technical Analysis
Will DNUT test $1.86? Looks like DNUT will continue to go lower before going back up.
I like buying at $2.75 - $2.25 range and scale into a trade as price gets to $1.86
Have some before it goes back to it's fair market value or tangible book value $6.68
Feels like more down before an upwards move back to the upside
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SPY - Macro-Market Overview and what the algorithms are sayingCurrently we are being guided by a strong selling teal on the LTF but we must keep in mind the HTF algorithms of red and white (which are bullish liquidity builders). Right now, we need to see who wins out in this fight between teal and red - if we break red and prove teal guidance, we are definitively in strong selling and can easily make our way toward the HTF white at the low $500's.
As always, let the algorithms guide you!
Happy Trading :)
ETHUSDWith the weekly candlestick that closed last night,
There are no signs of weakness in the Ethereum chart and I expect to see a 1650 range based on the liquidity inflow chart.
Of course, this analysis is completely dependent on macroeconomic data and we will have to see what happens in the next few days with Mr. Trump's tariffs, unemployment rates, and the Fed meetings.
As always, we are moving in step with the market.
Best regards
Trade the Yellow LevelThe Yellow Level of 21.37 acts as a key inflection point for GME since 2022.In May 2024, GME's stock experienced significant volatility (The Hiccup), closing the month at $23,14 - close to the Yellow Level. Similarly:
June 2024 closing price: 24,69;
July 2024 closing price: 22,67;
August 2024 closing price: 23,42;
September 2024: this is where things get interesting. On September 11th, the price was hammered below the critical support level of 21,37 - and spent 7 trading days below that level, then immediately reclaimed it on September 20th. This level was lost on 7th of October, an attempt to breakout was made in between 14th and 18th of October, and the price got hammered again. Another breakout was attempted on 25th of October and confirmed on 4th of November. It's been over that level until 27th of March, when a short ladder attack happened. The level held firm, briefly falling under 21,37.
The Yellow Level is crucial for GME:
1) The stock has tested The Yellow Level previously, making it a potential demand zone where buyers might step in. If it holds, a reversal upwards could be on the table.
2) If GME bounces off 21,37, it could trigger bullish momentum, pushing it toward 34,20 and higher;
3) If GME breaks below 21,37 and confirms it as resistance, it could go as low as 18,66
4) Trading volume always spikes around this level, it confirms that market participants view it as meaningful support. Check volume on March 27th.
The Yellow Level isn’t just a number—it’s been a decision point since at least 2022. How GME reacts here will determine the next wave of momentum, so watching for price action and volume is crucial now.
Long Next Week: Crude Oil Set for Potential Price Recovery
- Key Insights: Crude oil sees potential upward momentum with prices trading
above the 8-day moving average. Market sentiment favors short-term recovery
despite mid-level volatility due to geopolitical tensions and supply-demand
dynamics. Analysts emphasize crude oil's undervaluation and opportunities
due to supply constraints and potential oil production peaks by 2025.
- Price Targets: Next week targets aim for a recovery from the current level.
Tight stops and returns provide a trading framework.
- T1: $71
- T2: $72
- S1: $67
- S2: $66
- Recent Performance: WTI crude oil is trading around $68, with predictions
suggesting a pullback to $67 before potentially rising. Trading above its
8-day moving average suggests persisting upward momentum, pending market
movement. Market volatility exists due to fluctuating demand-supply dynamics
and geopolitical factors, with price support at $64.75 and resistance around
$70 to $73.50, indicating critical levels for potential trends.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts highlight the undervaluation in commodities,
including crude oil, suggesting investment opportunities as the energy
sector benefits from supply constraints. Expectations exist for peak oil
production by 2025, which could lead to long-term market shortages and
volatility. Companies like Occidental Petroleum remain sensitive to price
variations, focusing on debt reduction and dividend increases.
- News Impact: Geopolitical tensions related to Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan
oil could pressure supply chains and affect price stability. The move
towards renewable energy continues to reshape long-term demand; however,
robust demand is anticipated until major shifts occur. China's crude oil
strategies will significantly impact global supply and price alignment.
Monitoring these developments is crucial for understanding future price
trajectories in the crude oil market.
Go Long on TSLA: Targeting a Bullish Rebound Next Week
- Key Insights: Tesla's stock is presently experiencing heightened volatility,
influenced by delivery figures, significant corporate updates, and economic
conditions. The anticipation around Tesla's delivery report and advancements
in AI and autonomous vehicles suggests possible bullish movements if current
trends hold.
- Price Targets: Next week’s price target ranges for a long position are set
between $274 (T1) and $282 (T2). Stop levels are strategically placed below
current market sentiment impacts, with S1 at $252 and S2 at $250 to manage
downside risks.
- Recent Performance: Tesla's recent market activity reflects significant
fluctuations tied to delivery data and broader tech sector challenges. The
stock's price has hovered around key resistance and support levels,
indicating potential readiness for an upward movement should positive
catalysts emerge.
- Expert Analysis: Influential figures like Cathie Wood maintain a positive
outlook on Tesla, driven by the company's AI advancements and potential in
the autonomous vehicle sector. Analysts have pointed out that Tesla's
exposure to international tariffs is relatively moderate compared to its
competitors, possibly positioning it advantageously within the automotive
market.
- News Impact: Key upcoming reports, particularly Tesla's delivery announcement
on April 2nd, could dramatically affect stock perception and investor
sentiment. Advancements in AI, particularly the potential launch of Robo
taxis, are seen as game-changers for Tesla's market valuation. Meanwhile,
operational and regulatory challenges remain, including the uncertain impact
of geopolitical moves such as tariff implementations.
GBP/USD Today - News Supports Short-Term Uptrend💢💢💢 GBP/USD news :
➡️The GBP/USD pair surged sharply to nearly 1.2965 during Asian trading hours on Monday. Concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs could drive inflation and slow economic growth have put pressure on the U.S. dollar (USD), acting as a catalyst for the major currency pair.
➡️ Last week, Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks, effective April 3. This measure follows a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum and the upcoming announcement of retaliatory tariffs by Trump on Wednesday. Many analysts are worried that these tariffs will have a negative impact on the U.S. economy, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates while also increasing inflation in the coming months. As a result, this could weaken the USD further, boosting the GBP/USD pair in the near future.
Personal opinion:
➡️ Current news is supportive for GBP/USD in the short term. DXY is also having its third consecutive losing streak, further strengthening this pair.
➡️ Analysis based on resistance - support levels and Fibonacci combined with SMA to come up with a suitable strategy
Plan:
🔆Price Zone Setup:
👉 Buy GBP/USD 1.2940 – 1.2930
❌SL: 1.2900 | ✅TP: 1.2980– 1.3010
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Safe Entry ZoneNever Ever Follow stocks let it come.
Two Zone Two Scenarios:
Scenarios One: The Blue POI Zone (Point Of Interest) acts as strong support level.
if not respected
Scenarios Two: the 4h Green Zone Act as the strongest support level.
We have two scenarios indicating Buyers step in Strongly:
One: strong buying volume reversal Candle.
Two: Fake BreakOut of green Buying Zone.
Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly.
Once One Showed Up a safe entry would be 50% Fibo from the buying Candle at 1h TF.
Take care.
Crypto PSA! Stay Patient! As mentioned countless times in my previous videos, the market doesn't care about your dreams to become rich. It cares about liquidity - and right now, especially with the broader markets dumping, crypto's are building liquidity for the massive moves we all want to see in the future.
Let it do what it needs to do and wait for proper entries at areas that the market needs to go to replenish its supply of buyers.
Happy Trading :)
USDJPY NEXT MOVE Support Breakdown:
The analysis assumes that the price will respect the support level and bounce back up. However, if the support at around 149.000 is broken, we might see a further decline rather than a bullish reversal.
2. False Breakout at Resistance:
The target suggests a move toward 151.000 resistance. However, price might fail to break above resistance and reverse back down, trapping buyers in a bull trap.
3. Sideways Movement (Consolidation):
The price may not follow the expected movement and could enter a range-bound phase, moving sideways between support and resistance.
4. Fundamental Factors:
Unexpected economic news, central bank intervention, or geopolitical events could disrupt the technical setup, leading to an outcome that does not follow the projected path.
Warning: what can save us from a collapse: must read.⚠️This analysis isn’t purely chart-based, but in this macro environment, understanding the bigger picture is essential for predicting market movements. Hopefully, TradingView will allow this idea so that everyone can read it.
What Can Save Us?
Before looking for a solution, we must first acknowledge the problem—and then determine if and when a resolution is coming.
1. Trump’s Tariffs & Policies: A Market Shock
Trump’s economic strategy marks a radical departure from the policies of the past 30 years. However, previous administrations weakened U.S. global influence, shifting power in favor of China.
Since Trump's motto is "Make America Great Again", serious changes are inevitable. Until investors fully grasp these policies, uncertainty will persist.
Let’s break down the key areas of impact and Trump’s expected responses:
2.Monetary Policy & The Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve (FED) and Jerome Powell are not aligned with the White House.
Powell is sticking to his monetary policy approach, but Trump needs 0% interest rates to implement his vision.
Markets hate uncertainty, and this is fueling volatility.
🔴 Trump's Response:
Expect a bombshell move—Trump will fire Jerome Powell and replace him with a Fed chairman who supports rate cuts to 0%. This will cause short-term chaos but ultimately fuel a massive market rally as:
✔️ The housing market recovers
✔️ Liquidity surges
✔️ Stocks skyrocket
3.U.S. Dependence on China & Russia for Raw Materials
The U.S. imports essential resources from China and Russia, making it vulnerable.
The BRICS alliance is strengthening, further threatening U.S. dominance.
🔴 Trump's Response:
Trump has openly expressed interest in acquiring Greenland, citing its rich natural resources. He will take it by military force if necessary, positioning the U.S. as a raw material powerhouse on par with Russia.
4.Lost Allies: Canada, Mexico & South America
Canada is aligning with Europe
Mexico & South America are leaning towards BRICS
🔴 Trump's Response:
To counter this:
Canada will be pressured into rejoining a U.S.-led trade bloc—or face potential annexation.
South American economies will be crippled by tariffs, forcing them to reintegrate under U.S. influence.
5.Geopolitical Conflicts: Middle East & Ukraine
Iran is aligned with Russia & China
Ukraine relies on Europe (France, UK, EU), rather than the U.S.
The U.S. is not benefiting from these wars
🔴 Trump's Response:
If Zelensky continues to align with Europe, Trump may order a full-scale U.S. bombing of Ukraine, flatten Kyiv, eliminate Zelensky live on TikTok, and then split Ukraine with Russia.
This move would:
✔️ Strengthen U.S.-Russia relations
✔️ Secure a deal on Greenland
✔️ Humble Europe
6.Conclusion: A Global Power Shift
Expect a period of chaos and fear. However, what investors must understand is that Trump is 100% serious about these moves—and he will execute them regardless of global opinion.
If Trump’s strategy works:
✅ The U.S. will regain dominance
✅ Markets will rally hard
✅ Confidence in the U.S. economy will be restored
If Trump fails:
🚨 A prolonged economic downturn (15-20 years of stagflation)
🚨 U.S. & Europe suffer major losses
🚨 Best move? Relocate to Asia or the Middle East before the crash.
So, even if Trump’s policies seem insane, the best-case scenario is that he succeeds.
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SPY at a Pivotal Zone – Bounce or Breakdown? 🧠 Market Structure + Price Action (1H)
* Trend: Downtrend confirmed. Recent Break of Structure (BOS) followed a Change of Character (CHoCH) from bulls to bears.
* Bearish momentum intensified after SPY broke support near 570.90, then plummeted through 564.85 and 558.11 key demand levels.
* Current price: 554.15 — bouncing slightly within a local demand/reaction box, but still under selling pressure.
* Price is now consolidating below structure, but inside a potential reaction zone (possible dead cat bounce or minor retracement).
🔍 Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
* CHoCH & BOS align with institutional exit behavior. The BOS confirms bearish intent.
* SPY has entered a minor demand zone, but hasn’t reclaimed any bullish market structure yet.
* If it breaks below 549.68, the next support zone opens toward the 540s.
🔁 Indicators
MACD:
* MACD is starting to curve up, with histogram showing decreasing red momentum – a potential bounce brewing.
Stoch RSI:
* Oversold condition with both lines crossing upward — supports a short-term relief rally or retracement.
🔥 GEX & Options Sentiment Analysis
* IVR: 37.8 (Moderate); IVx Avg: 22.6
* Put Positioning: Very high at 71% — bears are loaded up.
* GEX Sentiment:
* GEX is red 🔴🔴🔴 — strong gamma exposure to puts, favoring downward pressure.
* Highest negative NETGEX / PUT Support at 555.83, which is just above current price — this acts as a magnet and pivot.
* If SPY stays below this level, dealer hedging accelerates selling.
* Major Put Walls at:
* 545: GEX8 at -22%
* 544-540: Very deep bearish gamma — potential acceleration if we break lower.
* Call Resistance (Gamma Wall):
* 573 → 577 → 580 zone = Gamma ceiling.
* Dealers short calls here and hedge by selling, which adds resistance on rallies.
⚖️ Trade Scenarios
🐂 Bullish Reversal Setup:
* Trigger: Break & close above 555.83 with volume.
* Target: 558.11 → 564.85
* Invalidation: Below 549.68
* Risk/Reward: Favorable if volume confirms.
🐻 Bearish Continuation Setup:
* Trigger: Break below 549.68 with follow-through.
* Target: 545 → 540 zone (GEX & PUT walls)
* Stop-Loss: Above 555.83 or structure retest
* Confluence: GEX alignment + broken structure + dealer flow pressure.
🧭 Directional Bias:
Bearish bias still intact — but signs of short-term bounce forming. Likely we see a dead cat bounce unless 555.83 is reclaimed with conviction.
🎯 Actionable Strategy:
* Intraday scalp: Long toward 558 if price reclaims 555.83.
* Swing short: Below 549.68 toward 540 using SPY or PUT options.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
GBP/USD: Tariffs & Retail Shift the ScalesThe GBP/USD slightly rose to 1.2965 during the Asian trading session on Monday this week, with an increase of 0.21%. The US dollar failed to make an effective rebound amidst several consecutive days of downward pressure.
US President Donald Trump announced the imposition of a 25% tariff on imported automobiles and light trucks, and this measure will come into effect on April 3rd. The market is concerned that this measure may drive up inflation and dampen economic growth, thus dragging down the US dollar and causing it to weaken. Trump's trade policies may also limit the room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, further pressuring the US dollar. On the other hand, the UK's retail sales data for February exceeded market expectations, further boosting the British pound. The data shows that the UK's retail sales in February increased by 1.0% month-on-month, surpassing the market's expected decline of 0.3%. This data indicates that despite the uncertainties faced by the UK economy, consumer demand remains strong, supporting the rise of the British pound.
From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD maintains an upward momentum in the short term and is currently approaching the level of 1.2965. If it breaks through this key level, it may further test the psychological barrier of 1.3000. With the weakness of the US dollar, the British pound is likely to continue to rise and challenge higher levels.
GPBUSD
buy@1.28800-1.29300
tp:1.29600-1.30000
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