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Bitcoin Surges and Gold Falls: Risk Appetite RisesBy Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst Friday’s session sends a clear message to financial markets: risk appetite is roaring back, and investors are shifting their positions accordingly. While Bitcoin heads for its best week since March—fueled by geopolitical expectations and signs of a softer U.S. trade policy—the gold market, traditionally a haven in times of uncertainty, is undergoing a mild pullback from its record highs. Bitcoin Tops $93,000 and Eyes Weekly Gains The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), climbed to $93,300, marking a near 10% gain for the week after briefly touching $94,000 on Wednesday. This rebound represents a sharp reversal from the caution seen in recent weeks and largely reflects a shift in tone from Washington. President Donald Trump withdrew his threat to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a move interpreted as an institutional stability signal. He also hinted at potentially lowering tariffs on China, easing market tensions and benefiting higher-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies. Although Beijing officially denied any trade talks, Bloomberg reports suggest China is considering exempting certain U.S. goods from its 125% tariffs, stoking hopes for a de-escalation. In this context, Bitcoin, which has historically reacted to geopolitical uncertainty and market sentiment, has drawn investor interest as a speculative asset with upside potential amid greater liquidity and less trade friction. BTC/USD Technical Analysis A long-term Bitcoin chart reveals that the Fibonacci retracement has returned near the 61.0% level, currently sitting just below it. The Point of Control (POC) is around $84,568, significantly below today’s price of $93,617. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 55.84, shows no signs of extreme overbought conditions. Should the current resistance level be decisively broken, Bitcoin could surge toward $98,000, reclaiming territory lost in late February. Conversely, if momentum falters, a pullback to the 50% Fibonacci retracement—around $90,822, the previous resistance—becomes more likely. Gold Pulls Back from Record Highs On the flip side, spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,318.28 per ounce, while June futures slipped 0.6% to $3,328.67. These modest declines come after gold reached a historic peak of $3,500 earlier this week. The primary catalyst for the pullback has been renewed risk-on sentiment, driven by strong earnings from tech giants Alphabet (+2.5%), Amazon (+3.3%), and Nvidia (+3.6%)—all benefiting from the AI boom and boosting confidence in growth assets. Additionally, a rebound in the U.S. dollar, which had hit three-year lows, pressured precious metals. Yet gold remains elevated, underpinned by structural factors like persistent inflation, Middle East conflicts, and broader geopolitical tensions. A New Balance Between Safe Havens and Speculation This week’s action underscores a temporary shift in investor priorities. With signs of trade détente and no surprises from central banks, capital is moving from defensive assets into higher-return, speculative vehicles such as cryptocurrencies. Other altcoins have also performed well: Polygon is up 11%, Cardano +4.4%, Solana +2.7%, while Ethereum holds steady near $1,770. Although the backdrop remains fragile—trade talks remain uncertain and global risks linger—the market’s narrative has turned cautiously optimistic. This shift positions Bitcoin as a hybrid asset, straddling the line between a digital haven and a high-risk investment. Conclusion The divergent performance of Bitcoin and gold highlights the market’s current duality: optimism with reservations. If trade-tension relief takes hold, digital assets could see further gains. Conversely, renewed conflict would likely propel gold back into the spotlight as the premier store of value. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:BTCUSDLong
by ActivTrades
XAUMO | Tactical Market Report – Friday, April 25, 2025 Overall Market Outlook: The market is currently moving in a clear distribution zone, between 3,337 and 3,346. There’s strong evidence of a bull trap near the 3,346 high. Price is failing to stay above the VWAP, and we’re seeing overlapping signals between the HMA5 and EMA21. A close below 3,329.00 would be a major reversal signal, possibly kicking off a wide downward move. Session-Based Behavior (Cairo Time): 1. London Session (10:00 AM – 1:00 PM): Expected Behavior: Fake breakout to attract buyers Tactics:
 Watch for fast moves into the 3,337–3,345 zone Sell if rejection candles appear (Shooting Star / Bearish Engulfing) Confirm with divergence or internal support break on the 15-min chart 2. Pre-New York (1:00 PM – 3:00 PM): Expected Behavior: Tight consolidation and position building Tactics:
 Monitor price around 3,320–3,329 If price stays below VWAP, stick with short positions Don’t go long unless there’s a real breakout with strong volume + RSI confirmation 3. New York Open (3:30 PM – 4:30 PM): Expected Behavior: Initial fake move followed by strong momentum Tactics:
 Sell after a break below 3,306 + retest RSI dropping below 40 = strong bearish momentum confirmation 4. New York Continuation (After 4:30 PM): Expected Behavior: Continuation in the dominant direction Tactics:
 If price stays under 3,306.50 → continue selling Use a trailing take profit and adjust based on price movement Trading Scenarios: Main Bearish Scenario (Primary Setup): Entry Options:
 Sell Limit at 3,329 Sell Stop at 3,306 Stop Loss Levels:
 SL1: 3,341.12 SL2 (Trailing): 3,345.35 Take Profit Targets:
 TP1: 3,294 TP2: 3,278 TP3: 3,255.74 TP4: 3,226.88 TP5: 3,198.01 Confidence Level: 85% Why This Trade?
 Failed breakout Clear distribution signals on the chart Confirmed bull trap above 3,342.82 Alternative Bullish Reversal Scenario (Low Probability): Entry: Buy Stop at 3,346 Stop Loss: SL at 3,337 Take Profit:
 TP1: 3,355 TP2: 3,367.45 Confidence Level: 50% Conditions Needed:
 Ichimoku Cloud breakout EMA21, EMA8, and HMA5 aligning upward Bullish RSI divergence + MACD crossover Structural Outlook (10:00 AM): Moving Average Cluster (HMA5 + EMA21): 3,307 – 3,310 Institutional Resistance Zone: 3,337 – 3,346 Confirmed Traps:
 Bull Traps at 3,342.82 and 3,338.70 Volume Profile:
 VWAP = Rejected VPOC shifted toward 3,294 Large selling volume: 246.69K ========= Key Economic Events Today (Cairo Time): 4:00 PM – Final US Consumer Confidence (April):
 Strong reading = Bullish for USD = Bearish for Gold Weak reading = Bearish for USD = Bullish for Gold Evening – US Oil Rig Count:
 Increase = Rising inflation expectations → indirect support for Gold No change = Minor short-term impact ======== XAUMO | Bullish Tactical Plan Bullish Idea Summary: Even though the market is under heavy selling pressure, there’s still a chance for a bullish counter move if these technical reversal signals show up: Reversal candles like a Hammer or Bullish Engulfing near 3,294–3,286 support A solid breakout above the Ichimoku Cloud at 3,346 Bullish RSI Divergence + MACD Crossover Conditions for Bullish Activation: Price must break and hold above 3,346 with rising volume HMA5, EMA8, and EMA21 must cross upward on both 15-min and 1-hour charts Must see strong momentum + BBMA reversal confirmation Buy Scenario Details: Entry: Buy Stop at 3,346.20 Stop Loss:
 SL1: 3,337 SL2 (Trailing): 3,333.15 Targets:
 TP1: 3,355.00 TP2: 3,367.45 (weekly high) TP3: 3,385.00 (Institutional exit zone via BBU) Confidence Level: 50–60% Why the caution? Previous breakouts in this range have failed repeatedly. Final Note: “Below 3,306, price gets crushed. Above 3,346 is just a distribution trap. Buying without a real breakout? That’s tactical suicide. Read the chart, not your wishes.” Conclusion: If the bullish scenario plays out today, Friday April 25, 2025, the market may be heading into a short-term rally fueled by temporary momentum after a sharp pullback. The key to this move is a strong and confirmed breakout above the 3,346 resistance zone. As of now, price is still hesitating below that level, which signals ongoing distribution—or maybe preparation for a breakout. To confirm the setup, you’ll need: a clean close above 3,346 upward crossover of HMA5, EMA8, and EMA21 on the 15m and 1h RSI crossing 55 and MACD flipping positive Only then does the Buy Stop at 3,346.20 become a serious play, with stops placed smartly at 3,337 and a trailing stop at 3,333.15 to avoid fakeouts. Initial targets are 3,355, then 3,367.45, and finally 3,385 as the stretch goal—an institutional area where profit-taking is likely. Still, with confidence only around 50–60%, this trade needs clear technical confirmation before execution. If the market drops back below 3,329, the bearish plan remains the default. The price decides. We just stay ready.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
ETHFI Breakout Loading? Targets Up to $1.67!$ETHFI/USDT Analysis Price is currently trading around a key resistance zone after a strong recovery from recent lows. While momentum looks bullish, the resistance has not been broken yet — making this a crucial level to watch. A clean breakout and candle close above this zone could confirm a potential rally toward the next targets. 🎯 Upside Targets (if breakout confirms): TP1: $0.881 TP2: $1.291 TP3: $1.677 📌 For now, stay patient. Let the price action confirm before entering — this zone could act as a rejection point if bulls fail to push through. DYOR, NFA
Long
by unichartz
Trump's World Liberty Financial to add SUI to strategic reserve!CRYPTOCAP:SUI , a leading Layer-1 blockchain, has entered into a significant partnership with World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform affiliated with Donald Trump. This collaboration involves integrating Sui's native token (SUI) into WLFI's "Macro Strategy" reserve, a strategic token fund designed to diversify holdings and support emerging blockchain projects. The partnership also aims to explore product development opportunities leveraging Sui's technology. WLFI's Macro Strategy reserve already includes prominent digital assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and tokenized real-world assets like U.S. Treasury-backed tokens. The addition of SUI reflects WLFI's focus on supporting innovative blockchain projects while expanding decentralized finance access to a broader audience. The announcement of this partnership coincides with broader developments in the U.S. crypto landscape. President Trump is expected to unveil details about a proposed "Crypto Strategic Reserve" during the White House Crypto Summit on March 7, 2025. This reserve is anticipated to focus primarily on Bitcoin while also considering other digital assets Trump-backed World Liberty Financial plans to add SUI to its strategic reserve. I think the upside for SUI is Huge from here!
Long
by TopgOptions
EURUSD COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend. 🎯 Non Commercials added decent longs in last 2 weeks and little bit shorts also, this week Tuesdays reports comes out with -4.2K net. Which means momentum is slowing down a bit and we will might see a correction. 📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage. 💊 Tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance. 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions. Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
by David_Perk
6
WELCOME TO THE BEGINNING OF ALT COIN SEASON!Traders, Hodlr's and Soon to be Liquidity (late retail buyers), This is likely the moment we have been waiting for. Last week in our weekly VIP market update we discussed just a few things that would really show us if we just saw the bottom of the alts and if it was now time to start seeing some new local HH's and then HL's showing us a shift in trend. I had posted a few trades pointing this out. We have now at this point accomplished what we were looking for to see if we would be starting Alt coins season. We have been watching a few things. The first being Bitcoin Dominance or CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D as this is a great chart to watch and look for reversals prior to looking at the chart of the specific alt coin against BTC to see if it also is showing it could have a rally or a pullback based on your bias on this BTC.D chart. For instance if I were to want to see maybe when XRP would likely start breaking out say that this BTC.D chart is in fact correct and the triangle trend line will end up being the top for btc dominance at around 64.4% of the total market I would go to BITSTAMP:XRPBTC to give myself some insight on confluence of market movements. Being that we are now here at the point that I believe we will start to see money flow into alts based on this chart and others such as CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 , CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 and CRYPTOCAP:TOTALDEFI and the specific BTC pairings that I am holding by looking up the ticker of my alt coin/BTC and studying that chart I will honestly say that I am in the 90%/10% bullish on alts to bearish. I hope this information helped you in your journey to get more information and come up with your own analysis to base your investment decisions and you become prosperous for doing soo! Stay Profitable Folks, Savvy!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by Crypto_Kinfolk
USDCHF – breakout (down), retest and bearish continuation The area between 0.8410 and 0.8330 has been a solid support but recently, price broke (to the downside). Now, price has been pulling back for a re-test and I believe that next week we may see a bearish continuation. Price will also come closer to the 20ema that I rely on as a guide to the mean. I will be watching this area on a lower time frame, looking for bearish price action to go short. If bearish price action does resume, we are likely to see the round number 0.8000 be achieved. This is not a trade recommendation; it’s merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose and carefully manage your capital and risk. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!! It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
Short
by Trading_Vista
LINKUSDT - Time to consider Alts more seriously?Is it time to reconsider Alt coins with some more sincerity? Notoriously up and down in the past, are top Alt coins set to experience some sustained gains over the coming years? Time will tell. For now, our team has identified an opportunity within LINKUSDT, where momentum may very well be turning to a 'bullish' rating should price be able to hold current levels - Caution as always is warranted. We do however see elevated risk of 'bearish' momentum coming into play below the $14.00 mark. We're inspired to bring you the latest developments across worldwide markets, helping you look in the right place, at the right time. Thank you for reading! Stay tuned for further updates, and we look forward to being of service along your trading & investing journey... Disclaimer: Please note all information contained within this post and all other Bullfinder-official Tradingview content is strictly for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice. Please DYOR & Consult your licensed financial advisors before acting on any information contained within this post, or any other Bullfinder-official TV content.
Long
by Bullfinder-official
Importance of HA-Low, HA-High indicators Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1D chart) I wonder if you think that BTC has turned into an uptrend as I mentioned before, as it has risen above 89294.25. The previous idea is titled "Breakthrough trading starts with finding support and resistance points." It is ideal to buy at the lowest price possible and sell at the highest price possible, but in order to do that, you need to constantly check the chart in real time. Therefore, I think it is better to focus on finding the most ideal trading time. Therefore, you should try to trade according to your own trading rules, that is, your trading strategy. - In that sense, my trading criteria are the HA-Low and HA-High indicators. As you can see from the published formula, when the Heikin-Ashi chart shows an upward trend, the HA-Low indicator is created, and when it shows a downward trend, the HA-High indicator is created. Therefore, if possible, you can think of a trading strategy to buy when it shows support near the HA-Low indicator, and sell when it shows resistance near the HA-High indicator. If it falls below the HA-Low indicator, a stepwise downtrend may begin, and if it rises above the HA-HIgh indicator, a stepwise uptrend may begin. Therefore, it is necessary to look at how long the HA-Low and HA-High indicators make a horizontal line. Looking at the current chart, we can see that the HA-Low indicator was created at the 89294.25 point and the price fell, but the HA-Low indicator remained the same. Therefore, even if it fell below the HA-Low indicator, it did not lead to a stepwise downtrend. In order for a stepwise downtrend to lead, the HA-Low indicator must show a new shape as it falls. - The HA-High indicator on the 1D chart is formed at the 101947.24 point. Therefore, the section that determines the trend again is expected to be around 101947.24. However, since the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart is formed at the 97224.92 point, we must first check whether it can rise above this area. - OBV has broken through the upper line. However, since there is a difference from the previous high, the point to watch is whether it can rise above the previous high. Section A is the section where the lower point of the HA-High indicator box and the upper point of the HA-Low indicator box overlap. Therefore, the key is whether it can receive support and rise in this section. This is because it can be considered a volume profile section because it is a section where the influence of the HA-Low indicator and the HA-High indicator are simultaneously applied. - This volatility period is expected to be around April 25-29 (up to April 24-30). If the StochRSI indicator falls from the overbought zone after this volatility period, then the support around 89294.25 is expected to be an important issue. The movement of the StochRSI indicator and the price movement do not necessarily appear in the same direction. Therefore, we recommend that you focus on finding a selling time when the StochRSI indicator is above the 50 point and on finding a buying time when it is below the 50 point. - The biggest disadvantage of the breakout trading mentioned earlier is that when it shows a downward trend, it is a split selling period. In other words, when it rises from the point where the breakout trading was made and then shows a downward trend, it is the first selling period. If you ignore this, you may suffer a loss or increase psychological anxiety, so you need to be careful. Since the current HA-Low indicator is the standard for breakout trading, you will feel less psychological anxiety. The reason is that the HA-Low indicator is created, which means that it has broken out of the low range. When the price rises and breaks through the HA-High indicator, it feels different from when it breaks through the HA-Low indicator. When the HA-High indicator breaks upward, it makes you think that it will rise more. No matter how much you try to calm your mind and look at the chart with a third-party's eyes, it is not easy to stop thinking like that. The HA-High indicator is created, which means that it has fallen from the high range. Therefore, since rising above the HA-High indicator means that it has risen to the high range, it is not strange if it falls at any time. However, as I mentioned earlier, the idea that it will rise more will be dominant, so there is a high possibility that FOMO will take effect. In order to escape this psychological state, support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts are absolutely necessary. It is necessary to make an effort to stabilize your psychological state by conducting a split transaction depending on whether there is support near the drawn support and resistance points. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful transaction. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​This is an explanation of the big picture. I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire BTC section. I rewrote it to update the previous chart while touching the Fibonacci ratio section of 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10). (Previous BTCUSD 12M chart) Looking at the big picture, it seems to have maintained an upward trend following a pattern since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend. Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025. - (Current BTCUSD 12M chart) Based on the currently written Fibonacci ratio, it is displayed up to 3.618 (178910.15). It is expected that it will not fall again below the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 (44234.54). (BTCUSDT 12M chart) Based on the BTCUSDT chart, I think it is around 42283.58. - I will explain it again with the BTCUSD chart. The Fibonacci ratio ranges marked in the green boxes, 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10) and 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83), are expected to be important support and resistance ranges. In other words, it seems likely that they will act as volume profile ranges. Therefore, in order to break through these ranges upward, I think the point to watch is whether they can receive support and rise near the Fibonacci ratios of 1.618 (89126.41) and 2.618 (134018.28). Therefore, the maximum rising range in 2025 is expected to be the 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83) range. In order to do that, we need to see if it is supported and rises near 2.618 (134018.28). If it falls after the bull market in 2025, we don't know how far it will fall, but based on the previous decline, we expect it to fall by about -60% to -70%. Therefore, if it starts to fall near the Fibonacci ratio 3.14 (157451.83), it seems likely that it will fall to around Fibonacci 0.618 (44234.54). I will explain more details when the bear market starts. ------------------------------------------------------
by readCrypto
1
XAUUSD Bullish Setup | Bounce from Major Support Zone!Hello dear friends 👋 GOLD/XAUUSD Trade Signal Technical Analysis Setup 👇 Gold is showing strong bullish reversal signals—let’s look for a buy setup! • Trade Setup 📈 📊 • Entry Zone: 3,280 – 3,300 🔹 • Take Profit 1 (TP1): 3,400 🔹 • Take Profit 2 (TP2): 3,470 🔹 • Take Profit 3 (TP3): 3,545 ⭕ • Stop Loss (SL): 3,260 Technical Analysis Setup: • Strong support zone holding with multiple rejections. • Price forming higher lows and potential breakout setup. • Momentum shift indicating bullish pressure building. ⚠ Manage your risk wisely! Let the market work in your favor—patience and discipline matter. Do Trade at your own risk.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Alex_gold_trader
1
Tesla Suspends Guidance: Why Its Forecasts Were Often WrongTesla Pulls the Plug on Guidance: Why Its Forecasts Weren't Worth Much Anyway Tesla, the electric vehicle behemoth that has captivated and often confounded investors for over a decade, has made another move guaranteed to stir debate: it's suspending its forward-looking guidance. For many companies, withdrawing financial forecasts signals significant uncertainty or a major strategic shift, often sending shares tumbling. While Tesla's stock undoubtedly reacts to such news, a deeper look reveals a compelling argument: Tesla's official guidance, particularly in recent years, had become such a moving target, so frequently untethered from eventual reality, that its predictive value was already deeply questionable. Suspending it might simply be acknowledging the obvious. For years, Tesla's earnings calls and investor communications were punctuated by ambitious, often audacious, targets set by CEO Elon Musk and the company. These weren't just vague aspirations; they were often specific numbers for vehicle deliveries, production ramps, timelines for new technologies like Full Self-Driving (FSD), and launch dates for anticipated models like the Cybertruck or the Semi. The market, enthralled by Tesla's disruptive potential and Musk's charismatic pronouncements, frequently hung on these words, baking them into valuation models and trading strategies. However, the history of Tesla meeting these self-imposed targets is, charitably speaking, inconsistent. The guidance often veered into the quixotic, reflecting a potent blend of extreme optimism, engineering ambition, and perhaps a dash of Musk's famed "reality distortion field." Consider the infamous "production hell" of the Model 3 ramp-up. Initial targets were wildly optimistic, projecting volumes that the company struggled immensely to achieve, facing bottlenecks in battery production and assembly line automation. While Tesla eventually overcame these hurdles, the timeline and cost deviated significantly from early guidance. Similarly, the promise of Full Self-Driving has been a perennial "next year" phenomenon. While the capabilities of Tesla's Autopilot and FSD Beta have advanced significantly, the arrival of true Level 4 or 5 autonomy, capable of operating without driver supervision under virtually all conditions – as often implied by the timelines suggested in guidance – remains elusive, years behind schedules hinted at in past forecasts. The Cybertruck provides another stark example. Unveiled in 2019 with a projected start date that came and went multiple times, its eventual, limited launch in late 2023 was years behind schedule, and scaling its unique manufacturing process remains a challenge. Guidance around its ramp-up has been adjusted repeatedly. This pattern isn't necessarily born from deliberate deception, but rather from a confluence of factors inherent to Tesla's DNA and the volatile industries it operates in: 1. Aggressive Goal Setting: Musk is known for setting incredibly ambitious "stretch goals" intended to motivate teams to achieve breakthroughs. While effective internally, translating these aspirational targets directly into public financial guidance is fraught with risk. 2. Underestimation of Complexity: Bringing revolutionary products to mass market – whether it's a new vehicle platform, a complex software suite like FSD, or novel battery technology – involves navigating unforeseen engineering, manufacturing, supply chain, and regulatory hurdles. Initial guidance often seemed to underestimate these complexities. 3. Market Volatility: The EV market itself is dynamic. Consumer demand shifts, government incentives change, raw material costs fluctuate, and competition intensifies – all factors that can derail even well-laid plans and render guidance obsolete. 4. The "Musk Factor": Elon Musk's public statements, sometimes made spontaneously on social media or during earnings calls, often became de facto guidance, even if not formally enshrined. His optimism could inflate expectations beyond what the operational side of the business could reliably deliver on a set schedule. Given this history, why did the market continue to pay such close attention? Part of it was the sheer scale of Tesla's ambition and its undeniable success in revolutionizing the automotive industry. Investors betting on disruption were often willing to overlook missed targets, focusing instead on the long-term vision. Past stock performance also created a feedback loop; as the stock soared despite missed guidance, it reinforced the idea that the specific numbers mattered less than the overall trajectory and narrative. Guidance served as a signal of intent and ambition, even if the execution timeline slipped. However, the context has shifted dramatically. Tesla is no longer the lone wolf in a nascent EV market. Competition is fierce, particularly from Chinese automakers like BYD, but also from legacy manufacturers finally hitting their stride with compelling EV offerings. Global EV demand growth, while still present, has slowed from its previously exponential pace. Tesla itself has engaged in significant price cuts globally to maintain volume, putting pressure on its once-stellar automotive margins. In this more challenging environment, the luxury of consistently missing ambitious targets wears thin. The decision to suspend guidance now can be interpreted in several ways: • Pragmatic Realism: Management may genuinely lack visibility into near-term demand, production capabilities (especially with new models or processes), or the impact of macroeconomic factors. Suspending guidance is arguably more responsible than issuing forecasts they have low confidence in. • Strategic Pivot: Tesla is increasingly emphasizing its future potential in AI, robotics (Optimus), and autonomous ride-sharing (Robotaxi). These ventures have even longer and more uncertain development timelines than vehicle production. Focusing investor attention away from quarterly delivery numbers might be part of a strategy to reframe the company's narrative around these future bets. • Avoiding Accountability: A more cynical take is that suspending guidance removes a key benchmark against which management's performance can be judged, particularly during a period of slowing growth and heightened competition. Regardless of the primary motivation, the practical implication for investors is clear: the already thin reed of Tesla's official guidance is now gone entirely. This forces a greater reliance on analyzing tangible results – actual deliveries, reported margins, cash flow generation, progress on FSD adoption rates, and demonstrable advancements in new ventures – rather than promises of future performance. The suspension underscores that investing in Tesla requires a strong belief in its long-term vision and its ability to execute on extremely complex technological and manufacturing challenges, often without a clear, company-provided roadmap for the immediate future. The focus must shift from parsing guidance to meticulously evaluating performance, competitive positioning, and the plausibility of its next-generation bets. In conclusion, Tesla's decision to stop issuing formal guidance is less of a shockwave and more of a formal acknowledgment of a long-standing reality. Its forecasts were often more aspirational than operational, reflecting a culture of ambitious goal-setting within a highly volatile industry. While the absence of guidance introduces a new layer of uncertainty, savvy investors likely already applied a significant discount factor to Tesla's projections. The company's future success now hinges more transparently than ever not on what it promises for tomorrow, but on what it demonstrably delivers today. The quixotic forecasts may be gone, but the fundamental challenge of execution remains.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by bryandowningqln
Looking to Short Bitcoin if Key Support FailsFrom a short-term perspective, the instrument is in a well-defined uptrend, so shorting at current levels doesn’t make much sense. It’s better to wait for signs of weakness — specifically, when price starts to move lower and breaks below the initial local lows. In this case, the key zone to watch is the narrow range between 91,911 and 91,631. If price begins to break below that range, a short setup becomes valid, with the first target at 82,953–82,753. The final target is 74,565–74,456. For now, though, price is still moving upward and could continue higher. Wait for confirmation before taking any position.
Short
by nlt_group
EURJPY: Short Setup with Target Zones in FocusEURJPY outlines a clear W-X-Y corrective pattern. Wave (W) ended at 161.297 , followed by an upward corrective move in Wave (X), which topped at 162.665 with a classic ABC formation. Currently, the price is hovering around 162.084, likely forming Wave B of the final Y leg. A brief move higher could complete this B wave before the pair resumes its decline toward the 160.922–160.680 area, which marks the projected end of Wave C of (Y). The broader correction is framed by two descending blue trendlines, providing dynamic resistance and support, while a short-term red ascending trendline is currently holding the price action but may soon give way. If the price stalls or rejects around the 162.3–162.5 zone, it could signal the start of the next leg down, making it a potential setup for short positions. After the reversal from Wave Y, potential upside targets are 161.600, 162.500 , and 163.100 . We will update it soon!
by Money_Dictators
2