Tariffs, and Tumult: Wall Street Waits on Super WednesdayHello everyone, it’s April 30, 2025. The TVC:DJI just closed its sixth consecutive green session, with markets clinging to hope as rumors swirl of a first tariff deal—possibly with India—though nothing is confirmed. That tiny breadcrumb of optimism was enough to boost sentiment late in yesterday’s session, even if volatility is dipping below 25% and investor enthusiasm seems to be fading in lockstep.
U.S. macro data continues to paint a picture of “not great, but not terrible.” Consumer confidence and job openings (JOLTS) came in below expectations but not disastrously so, prompting markets to collectively shrug and declare everything “less worse than feared.” It’s a strategy now: ignore bad data as long as it isn’t apocalyptic.
As earnings roll in, companies are split between those who pretend the tariff storm is “manageable” (hello, NASDAQ:COKE ) and those flying blind through economic fog ( NYSE:UPS , Snap, and Super Micro—who might be losing a major client named Nvidia). The overall takeaway? Visibility is garbage, and most companies are bracing rather than building.
All eyes are now on today’s so-called Super Wednesday, packed with economic data (U.S. GDP, PCE, ADP jobs, Chicago PMI) and mega-earnings from NASDAQ:MSFT and NASDAQ:META . But as usual, expectations may outpace reality. Markets often dream of clarity and wake up to more noise.
Meanwhile, China flashed its first big red light: a manufacturing PMI of 49, signaling contraction—the lowest in two years. No shock, considering their ongoing trade war with the U.S., which seems to be giving the global economy the flu.
On the political front, Trump celebrated his 100 days in office with a campaign-style detour to Detroit, throwing shade at Fed Chair Jerome Powell while declaring the economy in perfect health (despite the worst market performance since Nixon’s early days). He promised tax cuts, again, while doubling down on trade threats. Powell, of course, is just trying to survive the week.
Oil briefly dipped under $60 as markets considered the broader implications of economic warfare, gold sits at $3,311, and Bitcoin hovers around $95,000—looking resilient despite the madness.
As for corporate earnings, Starbucks missed on sales due to weak U.S. demand, Pfizer beat on EPS but saw revenue fall, and Visa continues to rake in profits as Americans keep spending like inflation isn’t real. Novartis crushed it but got no love from the market because apparently, +22% net income just isn’t sexy enough.
In short: chaos remains king. Markets seem oddly calm on the surface, but under the hood, it’s still all about tariffs, Trump tweets, and the fantasy that maybe—just maybe—some clarity will come today. Don’t hold your breath.
Enjoy the ride, and see you tomorrow for more market mayhem.
Beyond Technical Analysis
Gold Spot (XAU/USD) – Bullish Double Bottom BreakoutHello guys!
Yesterday we got our profit from gold!
It is a new one:
Gold has formed a clear double bottom on the 1H timeframe, accompanied by a bullish divergence—a classic signal of potential reversal. Following the breakout above neckline resistance, the price is currently in a retest phase, revisiting the breakout zone (now turned support).
🔹 Pattern: Double Bottom
🔹 Signal: Bullish Divergence
🔹 Breakout: Confirmed
🔹 Support Zone: ~$3,300–$3,305
🔹 Target: ~$3,375–$3,385
The bullish scenario remains valid as long as the price holds above the support area. A failure to hold may invalidate the setup and lead to further consolidation or decline.
📌 Watch for bullish price action near the retest zone for potential entries.
Trade Idea: Buy USDJPY from the highlighted demand zone (around The market has recently revisited a key demand zone highlighted around the 142.195 level on the 1-hour chart. Price previously reacted strongly to this area, suggesting the presence of institutional interest. After a sharp decline, the pair found support within this zone and has since shown a bullish push, indicating renewed buying pressure.
The Day Ahead Wednesday April 30
Data: US Q1 GDP, employment cost index, April ADP report, MNI Chicago PMI, March core PCE, personal income and spending, pending home sales, China April official PMIs, Caixin manufacturing PMI, UK April Lloyds Business Barometer, Japan March retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, Germany April CPI, retail sales, import price index, unemployment claims rate, Q1 GDP, France April CPI, March PPI, consumer spending, Q1 GDP, Italy April CPI, March PPI, Q1 GDP, Eurozone Q1 GDP, Canada February GDP, Australia Q1 CPI
Central banks: ECB’s Muller speaks, BoE’s Lombardelli speaks
Earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Samsung, Qualcomm, Caterpillar, TotalEnergies, Airbus, Iberdrola, Santander, UBS, KLA, Equinix, GSK, Tokyo Electron, MediaTek, Equinor, Mercedes-Benz Group, Credit Agricole, Barclays, Volkswagen, CaixaBank, Deutsche Post, Haleon, Robinhood, Societe Generale, Humana, eBay, GE HealthCare, ArcelorMittal, Evolution AB, Repsol, Norwegian Cruise Line, Albemarle, Wingstop, Etsy
Auctions: US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement
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XAUUSD | Bearish Order Block Rejection in Premium | Short Setup🔥 XAUUSD – 5M Timeframe Smart Money Setup | April 30, 2025
Gold just printed the kind of setup Smart Money waits for: liquidity sweep + order block retest + Fibonacci confluence — all in the Premium Zone.
📍 Price Action Breakdown:
We marked a Clear Bearish Order Block after a strong move down.
Price retraced cleanly back into the 61.8%–79% Fibonacci Premium Zone — the exact area where Smart Money sells to retail buyers.
Price wicked into the OB, filled the imbalance, and showed strong bearish rejection.
Entry triggered on confirmation candle after tap.
🎯 Key Setup Elements:
✅ OB in Premium
✅ Bearish BOS before entry
✅ Fibonacci rejection (61.8–79%)
✅ Clean mitigation of the OB
✅ Low time frame confirmation entry
🧠 Smart Money Flow:
Retail: “Gold’s recovering! Time to buy!”
Smart Money: “Thanks for the liquidity. Here’s your SL.” 🫡💸
Every wick into that OB zone is a buy stop getting sniped by institutions.
💥 Trade Setup:
Entry: OB rejection zone at 3,328–3,332
SL: Above 3,332 (wick high / OB invalidation)
TP:
TP1: 3,314
TP2: 3,306
TP3: 3,299 (full RR completion)
Risk:Reward ~ 1:3+
📈 Risk Management Note:
Trailing SL advised once we reach TP1. Let price prove itself. Gold is volatile, but this structure is textbook.
🔮 What to Watch Next:
BOS below 3,320 confirms further bearish momentum.
Any re-entry into OB without momentum = trap.
🎤 Final Thoughts:
This is a play straight out of the institutional handbook — it’s not about chasing, it’s about letting price come to you.
Patience = Profit. 🧠💰
🗣️ Drop “GOLDEN SNIPER” in the comments if you caught this too.
💾 Save this chart — it's a lesson in precision.
👥 Tag your scalping squad — no excuses on this clean setup.
BTCUSD | Bearish Rejection from Order Block Zone | Choch Confirm📉 BTCUSD – 30M SMC Breakdown | April 30, 2025
Bitcoin just printed a clean bearish reaction from a high-probability supply zone, aligned with Smart Money tactics.
📍 Technical Breakdown:
Order Block (OB) marked clearly near 95,474 – 95,756, sitting in a premium price zone.
Price returned to this OB after a previous Change of Character (Choch) to the downside — a clear signal of distribution.
The Strong High remains intact — no structural break = institutional control still active.
Rejection wicks and slow momentum near the OB confirm buyer exhaustion.
🎯 Setup Breakdown:
Entry Zone: 95,474 – 95,756
SL: Above 95,800 (invalidates OB)
TP Zone:
TP1: 94,600
TP2: 94,000
TP3: 93,480 (next liquidity pool near the Weak Low)
Risk:Reward ~ 1:3.5+
🧠 Smart Money Insight:
This is where retail traders start buying the breakout — but Smart Money knows better.
They set traps in the OB, then reverse price for maximum stop hunts.
🔁 Market Psychology:
Choch = shift in sentiment
Price retesting OB = liquidity hunt
Weak Low = magnet for future price sweep
This short setup aligns with mitigation + manipulation + distribution.
📌 What to Watch:
If price fails to break Strong High → short bias remains
If we break below 94,600 → hold for full TP at 93,480
Re-entry possible on LTF pullbacks into new internal OBs
🧠 Execution Note:
Be patient — price might dance in OB before melting. Let it reject, confirm, and flow.
🔥 Final Word:
This setup is clean, logical, and follows institutional flow. If you missed the first touch, wait for a lower-timeframe pullback entry.
Smart traders don’t chase price — they let it come to them. 🧘♂️📉
🗣️ Comment “BTC BEAR ZONE” if you caught this short setup.
📥 Save this post — real case study for Smart Money traders.
📡 Share this with your trading group — gems like this don’t show up daily.
IBM leads the investment push in the USABy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
IBM (NYSE: IBM) has announced an ambitious investment of $150 billion in the United States over the next five years, aiming to strengthen its position in the development of quantum computers, mainframes, and critical infrastructure technologies. This strategic decision comes at a key moment when the U.S. technology sector is repositioning itself as a global innovation engine.
This announcement adds to the recent commitment by giants such as Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), which have jointly pledged over $500 billion in investments, consolidating an unprecedented wave of technological spending. The move not only reflects confidence in the sector's potential but also responds to the current geopolitical context, which is driving the relocation of strategic capabilities to U.S. soil.
Recent Financial Results of IBM
In the first quarter of 2025, IBM reported revenues of $14.54 billion, exceeding analysts’ expectations. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.60, although this represented a 5% decrease compared to the previous year. The software division showed 7% growth, reaching $6.34 billion, while the consulting and infrastructure units experienced revenue declines.
Despite macroeconomic challenges and reductions in government contracts, IBM maintains its revenue growth forecast of at least 5% for 2025 and expects to generate free cash flow of approximately $13.5 billion.
IBM Analysis
At market close on April 29, 2025, IBM shares were trading at $246.95, representing a 2.38% decrease from the previous day. However, over the past year, shares have shown a positive trend, rising by 22%, reflecting investors' confidence in the company’s long-term strategy. Since May 2023, the stock has been trending upward in a sequence closely aligned with its quarterly earnings releases.
In the most recent cycle since March, combined with the U.S. tariff situation—which has significantly affected IBM—the share price dropped to $214.50, after which a strong support zone was established at that level. Currently, moving average crossovers indicate an intersection between the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, suggesting the price could return toward $222.49, slightly below the 38.20% level ($234.34), with the mid-zone around $240.48. This level coincides with previous resistances, now acting as support.
Currently, the Point of Control (POC) is located around $185, well below the current trading zone and the last impulse area. The RSI is at 49.91%, slightly oversold, which could lead to an upward price movement if quarterly results prove positive—as seen on previous occasions.
Impact on the S&P 500 and Outlook
The market reaction has been swift. The S&P 500 index, where IBM is a historic component, could benefit indirectly from this renewed investment momentum. Although IBM has not had the market spotlight of its more modern peers, its focus on high-value technologies such as quantum computing could lead to a progressive revaluation of its shares and support diversification within the index.
In an environment driven by artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and technological autonomy, IBM wants to make it clear that it remains in the game. Its bold move not only reinforces its role in the digital ecosystem but also underscores the renewed dynamism of the technology sector within the S&P 500.
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All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
NAS100USD: Bullish Continuation from Reclaimed SupportGreetings Traders,
In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, we identify ongoing bullish institutional order flow, and as such, we aim to align our trading opportunities with this upward bias.
Key Observations:
1. Retracement and Institutional Support:
Recent price action shows a healthy retracement, with price finding institutional support at the rejection block. This was followed by strong displacement to the upside, resulting in a bullish market structure shift. This suggests the retracement may be complete, with further bullish continuation likely.
2. Reclaimed Order Block as Key Support Zone:
Currently, price is approaching a reclaimed order block—a zone where institutions previously initiated buying before price traded higher. When price returns to this area, institutions often reclaim the zone to initiate new long positions. This reclaimed block is further strengthened by the alignment with a fair value gap (FVG), enhancing the zone’s validity as institutional support.
Trading Plan:
We will monitor this reclaimed FVG zone for confirmation of bullish intent. Upon confirmation, we will look to enter long positions targeting liquidity pools in premium pricing zones, where buy-side liquidity is likely to reside.
Stay disciplined, wait for confirmation, and ensure the idea aligns with your broader strategy.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
PSO Facing Trendline Resistance – Possible Retracement AheadMollyRonaldFx Report
The PSO 15-minute chart shows a strong bounce from recent lows, with price currently testing a well-defined descending trendline. Although today’s movement reflects bullish momentum (+2.22%), the resistance at this trendline may trigger a pullback. The projected short-term scenario indicates a potential dip towards the 348 support zone. A failure to break and hold above the trendline could confirm this bearish move. Watch price action closely near the resistance area for confirmation.
Bitcoin at Bull-Bear Crossroads: Fear vs GreedCurrently, the price of BTC continues to be tested within the range of 95,500-96,000. The support level below shows a trend of gradually moving upwards, which is in line with the technical feature of "higher lows", indicating that the current market is in a bullish correction stage. The overall trend is moderately bullish, and there is still some upward potential in the short term as no overbought signal has emerged yet.
In terms of technical indicators, the Bollinger Bands show that the price is closely following the middle band, and both the upper and lower bands are continuously narrowing, which means that the market is about to make a directional choice. The upward momentum of the MACD indicator above the zero axis is constantly increasing, but we need to pay close attention to the potential risk of a bearish divergence at the top to prevent a trend reversal.
In terms of time periods, the ascending channel at the 4-hour level remains intact. If there is a short-term pullback, the support level near 86,000 is worthy of key attention. At the 1-hour level, the upward oscillation structure has not been damaged. If it can effectively break through the resistance level of 96,000, it is expected to open up a new round of upward space; conversely, the price may fall back to 94,000 to seek support.
Regarding the current short-term trading strategy, the price of BTC is maintained at the high end of the oscillation range. So, before there is a breakdown of the range, we can continue to initiate short positions first. After the price retraces to the low point, we can go long again and look for a rebound opportunity.
BTCUSD
sell@95000-95500
tp:94000-93500
Investment itself is not risky; it is only when investment is out of control that risks occur. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment.