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Beyond Technical Analysis

SP500 what to expect next?As a seasoned trader with over a decade of experience navigating the markets, I’ve been closely monitoring the S&P 500’s current price action. The index is presently confined within a well-defined range, with resistance at 5,528 and support at 5,146, based on recent price behavior. We’ve observed a notable deviation below the lower boundary of this range, which often signals a potential reversal or absorption of liquidity before a move higher. My analysis suggests the next likely target is the upper boundary of the range at 5,528, coinciding with a weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) that has yet to be filled. Should the price approach this zone, I anticipate a strong market reaction, potentially driven by aggressive order flow as participants defend or challenge this key level. If the weekly FVG is invalidated—meaning price sweeps through this area without significant rejection—the S&P 500 could be poised to break out and target new all-time highs from its current position.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Almenio
USDCAD COT and Liquidity AnalysisCOT Report Analysis: This is a bit tricky one on the first sight you can see there is more longs than shorts, but !! And this where many traders makes mistakes when they are looking to the just current COT data. We can see that since march longs has dropped from the 165k to 1002K this is bearish. Net positions also going down. while the long % exposure is still 85% long it mostly go much lower. Also price action confirms lower prices, but I think healthy pullback is in play. So we got framework and bias now we need to look for setups. Which I will again use my CLS method. /b] Hey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. This is a big part of my FX Trading. Im always trying to trade with the Big players so knowing their positions is good thing. Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage. I created this simple free indicator which you can find in the my scripts. It's highlighting the day of the real report - Tuesday. Here is the tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance. Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
Short
by David_Perk
1
BSE - BSE Ltd. (45 mins. chart, NSE) - Long Position; short-termBSE - BSE Ltd. (45 mins. chart, NSE) - Long Position; short-term research idea. Risk assessment: High {volatility risk} Risk/Reward ratio ~ 3 Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 6480 Entry limit ~ 6370 to 6430 (Avg. - 6400) on April 23, 2025 1.⁠ ⁠Target limit ~ 6500 (+1.56%; +100 points) 2.⁠ ⁠Target limit ~ 6700 (+4.69%; +300 points) Stop order limit ~ 6300 (-1.56%; -100 points) Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter. LEGEND: {curly brackets} = observation notes = important updates (parentheses) = information details ~ tilde/approximation = variable value -hyphen = fixed value
NSE:BSELong
by VEDIMarketWatch
EURUSD 4H Time-frame analysis Let's dive into my EURUSD analysis on the 4-hour timeframe. From what I can see on your chart, here's a more detailed breakdown of potential interpretations: It looks like I've identified some key horizontal levels. These are often significant areas of interest for traders because they can act as: Support: Price might find it difficult to fall below these levels, and buying pressure could emerge. The lower horizontal line you've drawn around 1.12059 appears to be a potential support level. Notice how price bounced off this area previously in late March. Resistance: Conversely, price might struggle to rise above these levels, and selling pressure could take over. The upper yellow highlighted area, with the recent high reaching just above 1.13345, looks like a significant resistance zone. The price has recently tested this level and is currently pulling back. Recent Price Action: The sharp upward move in April, culminating at that high, suggests strong buying pressure. However, the immediate pullback indicates that the resistance zone is holding, at least for now. Potential Scenarios: Based on what I'm seeing, here are a couple of potential scenarios to consider: Rejection at Resistance: The current pullback could signify a rejection of the resistance zone. If selling pressure continues, we might see the price move back down towards your identified support level around 1.12059. A break below this support could then open the door for further downside. Consolidation and Breakout: Alternatively, the price might consolidate within the range defined by your resistance and support levels for a while. A subsequent break above the resistance (the yellow zone) would suggest renewed buying momentum and could lead to further upside. Conversely, a break below the support would reinforce the bearish scenario. Things to Consider for Further Analysis: To get a more complete picture, you might want to consider: Candlestick Patterns: Are there any specific candlestick patterns forming at the resistance level (like a bearish engulfing or a shooting star) that could confirm rejection? Similarly, look for bullish patterns near the support if price revisits that area. Volume: Analyzing the volume during the recent push to the high and the subsequent pullback could provide clues about the strength of the moves. High volume on the push-up might suggest strong buying interest, while high volume on the pullback could indicate strong selling pressure. Technical Indicators: Incorporating indicators like Moving Averages, RSI, or MACD could offer additional context and potential confirmation signals. For instance, is the RSI in overbought territory near the resistance? Is the MACD showing signs of bearish divergence? Fundamental Analysis: Keep an eye on any upcoming economic news or events related to the Euro or the US Dollar that could influence the price action. Remember, this is just an interpretation based on the snapshot you've provided. Trading involves probabilities, and no analysis is foolproof. It's crucial to manage your risk appropriately. What are your thoughts on these observations? What was your initial reasoning behind marking these specific levels? I'd be interested to hear more about your perspective!
by sitokagebson
[ TimeLine ] Gold 21-22 April 2025Hello everyone, 📅 Today is Monday, April 21, 2025 I will be using the High-Low price levels formed on the following dates as reference points for potential trade entries: 📌 April 21, 2025 (Monday) 📌 April 22, 2025 (Tuesday) 🧠 Trading Plan & Notes: ✅ Gold has broken its ATH multiple times over the past two weeks —volatility remains high ✅ The range formed on April 21 is approximately 3331 to 3430 — a massive 1000-pip zone ⚠️ Due to the large range, reversal entries or trades based on Fibonacci levels may be more appropriate ✅ I will personally trade both signals as part of my ongoing research and strategy ⚠️ If you're unsure or risk-averse , consider skipping April 21's signal 📋 Execution Plan: 🔹 Wait for the price range from the candles above to fully form ( marked with green lines ) 🔹 Entry will be triggered upon breakout, with a 60-pip buffer 🔹 If the trade hits Stop Loss (SL), switch direction and double the position size on the next valid entry for potential recovery 📉📈 Chart Reference: x/lgXVOC2u/
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
DXY Trading Opportunity: Bullish Setup & Precise SignalsOn Thursday, the DXY declined, trading below 99.50 with a drop of over 0.50%, mainly influenced by the latest remarks of U.S. President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin regarding global tariff negotiations. Meanwhile, the U.S. durable goods orders data showed a divided picture, reigniting market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. On the hourly chart, the DXY exhibits obvious technical pressure characteristics. The price has gradually retreated from the previous high near the 100 level and is currently consolidating around 99.30. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF line and the DEA line are in a deadlock above the zero axis, indicating a weakening of short-term momentum. The RSI indicator stands at 43.2687, in the neutral zone; 99.1000 has become an important support level in the near term. From a daily chart perspective, the DXY shows an obvious downward trend. Since February 2025, the price has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, and has recently broken below the psychological threshold of 100.00. The MACD indicator shows that the bearish momentum is dominant, with DIFF at -1.3961 and DEA at -1.3223 both operating below the zero axis. The RSI indicator is at 35.1769, on the verge of the oversold area, suggesting a possible technical rebound. 97.9229 is the recent low and constitutes an important support level. If this level is broken, the DXY may accelerate its downward movement. DXY buy@99.100 - 99.200 tp:99.800 - 100.300 Investment itself is not risky; it is only when investment is out of control that risks occur. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment.
TVC:DXYLong
by CyberFinMagus
1
Bitcoin Surges and Gold Falls: Risk Appetite RisesBy Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst Friday’s session sends a clear message to financial markets: risk appetite is roaring back, and investors are shifting their positions accordingly. While Bitcoin heads for its best week since March—fueled by geopolitical expectations and signs of a softer U.S. trade policy—the gold market, traditionally a haven in times of uncertainty, is undergoing a mild pullback from its record highs. Bitcoin Tops $93,000 and Eyes Weekly Gains The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), climbed to $93,300, marking a near 10% gain for the week after briefly touching $94,000 on Wednesday. This rebound represents a sharp reversal from the caution seen in recent weeks and largely reflects a shift in tone from Washington. President Donald Trump withdrew his threat to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a move interpreted as an institutional stability signal. He also hinted at potentially lowering tariffs on China, easing market tensions and benefiting higher-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies. Although Beijing officially denied any trade talks, Bloomberg reports suggest China is considering exempting certain U.S. goods from its 125% tariffs, stoking hopes for a de-escalation. In this context, Bitcoin, which has historically reacted to geopolitical uncertainty and market sentiment, has drawn investor interest as a speculative asset with upside potential amid greater liquidity and less trade friction. BTC/USD Technical Analysis A long-term Bitcoin chart reveals that the Fibonacci retracement has returned near the 61.0% level, currently sitting just below it. The Point of Control (POC) is around $84,568, significantly below today’s price of $93,617. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 55.84, shows no signs of extreme overbought conditions. Should the current resistance level be decisively broken, Bitcoin could surge toward $98,000, reclaiming territory lost in late February. Conversely, if momentum falters, a pullback to the 50% Fibonacci retracement—around $90,822, the previous resistance—becomes more likely. Gold Pulls Back from Record Highs On the flip side, spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,318.28 per ounce, while June futures slipped 0.6% to $3,328.67. These modest declines come after gold reached a historic peak of $3,500 earlier this week. The primary catalyst for the pullback has been renewed risk-on sentiment, driven by strong earnings from tech giants Alphabet (+2.5%), Amazon (+3.3%), and Nvidia (+3.6%)—all benefiting from the AI boom and boosting confidence in growth assets. Additionally, a rebound in the U.S. dollar, which had hit three-year lows, pressured precious metals. Yet gold remains elevated, underpinned by structural factors like persistent inflation, Middle East conflicts, and broader geopolitical tensions. A New Balance Between Safe Havens and Speculation This week’s action underscores a temporary shift in investor priorities. With signs of trade détente and no surprises from central banks, capital is moving from defensive assets into higher-return, speculative vehicles such as cryptocurrencies. Other altcoins have also performed well: Polygon is up 11%, Cardano +4.4%, Solana +2.7%, while Ethereum holds steady near $1,770. Although the backdrop remains fragile—trade talks remain uncertain and global risks linger—the market’s narrative has turned cautiously optimistic. This shift positions Bitcoin as a hybrid asset, straddling the line between a digital haven and a high-risk investment. Conclusion The divergent performance of Bitcoin and gold highlights the market’s current duality: optimism with reservations. If trade-tension relief takes hold, digital assets could see further gains. Conversely, renewed conflict would likely propel gold back into the spotlight as the premier store of value. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:BTCUSDLong
by ActivTrades
XAUMO | Tactical Market Report – Friday, April 25, 2025 Overall Market Outlook: The market is currently moving in a clear distribution zone, between 3,337 and 3,346. There’s strong evidence of a bull trap near the 3,346 high. Price is failing to stay above the VWAP, and we’re seeing overlapping signals between the HMA5 and EMA21. A close below 3,329.00 would be a major reversal signal, possibly kicking off a wide downward move. Session-Based Behavior (Cairo Time): 1. London Session (10:00 AM – 1:00 PM): Expected Behavior: Fake breakout to attract buyers Tactics:
 Watch for fast moves into the 3,337–3,345 zone Sell if rejection candles appear (Shooting Star / Bearish Engulfing) Confirm with divergence or internal support break on the 15-min chart 2. Pre-New York (1:00 PM – 3:00 PM): Expected Behavior: Tight consolidation and position building Tactics:
 Monitor price around 3,320–3,329 If price stays below VWAP, stick with short positions Don’t go long unless there’s a real breakout with strong volume + RSI confirmation 3. New York Open (3:30 PM – 4:30 PM): Expected Behavior: Initial fake move followed by strong momentum Tactics:
 Sell after a break below 3,306 + retest RSI dropping below 40 = strong bearish momentum confirmation 4. New York Continuation (After 4:30 PM): Expected Behavior: Continuation in the dominant direction Tactics:
 If price stays under 3,306.50 → continue selling Use a trailing take profit and adjust based on price movement Trading Scenarios: Main Bearish Scenario (Primary Setup): Entry Options:
 Sell Limit at 3,329 Sell Stop at 3,306 Stop Loss Levels:
 SL1: 3,341.12 SL2 (Trailing): 3,345.35 Take Profit Targets:
 TP1: 3,294 TP2: 3,278 TP3: 3,255.74 TP4: 3,226.88 TP5: 3,198.01 Confidence Level: 85% Why This Trade?
 Failed breakout Clear distribution signals on the chart Confirmed bull trap above 3,342.82 Alternative Bullish Reversal Scenario (Low Probability): Entry: Buy Stop at 3,346 Stop Loss: SL at 3,337 Take Profit:
 TP1: 3,355 TP2: 3,367.45 Confidence Level: 50% Conditions Needed:
 Ichimoku Cloud breakout EMA21, EMA8, and HMA5 aligning upward Bullish RSI divergence + MACD crossover Structural Outlook (10:00 AM): Moving Average Cluster (HMA5 + EMA21): 3,307 – 3,310 Institutional Resistance Zone: 3,337 – 3,346 Confirmed Traps:
 Bull Traps at 3,342.82 and 3,338.70 Volume Profile:
 VWAP = Rejected VPOC shifted toward 3,294 Large selling volume: 246.69K ========= Key Economic Events Today (Cairo Time): 4:00 PM – Final US Consumer Confidence (April):
 Strong reading = Bullish for USD = Bearish for Gold Weak reading = Bearish for USD = Bullish for Gold Evening – US Oil Rig Count:
 Increase = Rising inflation expectations → indirect support for Gold No change = Minor short-term impact ======== XAUMO | Bullish Tactical Plan Bullish Idea Summary: Even though the market is under heavy selling pressure, there’s still a chance for a bullish counter move if these technical reversal signals show up: Reversal candles like a Hammer or Bullish Engulfing near 3,294–3,286 support A solid breakout above the Ichimoku Cloud at 3,346 Bullish RSI Divergence + MACD Crossover Conditions for Bullish Activation: Price must break and hold above 3,346 with rising volume HMA5, EMA8, and EMA21 must cross upward on both 15-min and 1-hour charts Must see strong momentum + BBMA reversal confirmation Buy Scenario Details: Entry: Buy Stop at 3,346.20 Stop Loss:
 SL1: 3,337 SL2 (Trailing): 3,333.15 Targets:
 TP1: 3,355.00 TP2: 3,367.45 (weekly high) TP3: 3,385.00 (Institutional exit zone via BBU) Confidence Level: 50–60% Why the caution? Previous breakouts in this range have failed repeatedly. Final Note: “Below 3,306, price gets crushed. Above 3,346 is just a distribution trap. Buying without a real breakout? That’s tactical suicide. Read the chart, not your wishes.” Conclusion: If the bullish scenario plays out today, Friday April 25, 2025, the market may be heading into a short-term rally fueled by temporary momentum after a sharp pullback. The key to this move is a strong and confirmed breakout above the 3,346 resistance zone. As of now, price is still hesitating below that level, which signals ongoing distribution—or maybe preparation for a breakout. To confirm the setup, you’ll need: a clean close above 3,346 upward crossover of HMA5, EMA8, and EMA21 on the 15m and 1h RSI crossing 55 and MACD flipping positive Only then does the Buy Stop at 3,346.20 become a serious play, with stops placed smartly at 3,337 and a trailing stop at 3,333.15 to avoid fakeouts. Initial targets are 3,355, then 3,367.45, and finally 3,385 as the stretch goal—an institutional area where profit-taking is likely. Still, with confidence only around 50–60%, this trade needs clear technical confirmation before execution. If the market drops back below 3,329, the bearish plan remains the default. The price decides. We just stay ready.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
How do I know if a day will be bullish?"Daily Bias" is one of the most asked questions by traders! You’ve probably heard someone say: “If only I knew where the candle would expand, I’d be rich!” Well, today I’m sharing a framework that can help you start answering that exact question. 🚶🏽‍♂️Walk with me as we break down the ES Futures Daily Candle for April 24, 2024. By the end of this video, you'll have a solid starting point to study and apply this method— #OneCandlestickAtATime
CME_MINI:MES1!Education
by MarketsByLee_
LINKUSDT - Time to consider Alts more seriously?Is it time to reconsider Alt coins with some more sincerity? Notoriously up and down in the past, are top Alt coins set to experience some sustained gains over the coming years? Time will tell. For now, our team has identified an opportunity within LINKUSDT, where momentum may very well be turning to a 'bullish' rating should price be able to hold current levels - Caution as always is warranted. We do however see elevated risk of 'bearish' momentum coming into play below the $14.00 mark. We're inspired to bring you the latest developments across worldwide markets, helping you look in the right place, at the right time. Thank you for reading! Stay tuned for further updates, and we look forward to being of service along your trading & investing journey... Disclaimer: Please note all information contained within this post and all other Bullfinder-official Tradingview content is strictly for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice. Please DYOR & Consult your licensed financial advisors before acting on any information contained within this post, or any other Bullfinder-official TV content.
Long
by Bullfinder-official