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EUR/USD Analysis Ascending Triangle Breakout – Bullish TargetOverview of the Chart: The chart represents the EUR/USD (Euro to U.S. Dollar) pair on a 1-hour timeframe, showcasing a bullish ascending triangle breakout. The pattern indicates an upward continuation in the trend after a period of consolidation. This analysis will break down the key elements of the chart, the technical structure, and the potential trading strategy. 1. Market Structure & Key Zones A. Market Curve Area (Early Trend Development) The price started with a strong bullish trend leading up to the formation of the triangle. The curved trendline suggests a gradual increase in buying pressure, indicating that the market was preparing for a larger breakout. B. Resistance and Support Levels Resistance Level (Red Arrow & Blue Box): This level acted as a price ceiling where sellers previously dominated. The market attempted multiple times to break this resistance before successfully breaching it. Support Level (Green Arrow & Yellow Zone): The price consistently found buyers at this level, reinforcing a higher low structure. The rising support line within the triangle indicated strong accumulation by buyers. 2. Chart Pattern: Ascending Triangle Formation The price action formed an ascending triangle, which is a well-known bullish continuation pattern. The higher lows (trendline support) indicated buyers were gaining control, gradually pushing the price toward the resistance. Eventually, the resistance was broken with strong bullish momentum, confirming a valid breakout. 3. Breakout Confirmation & Retest The breakout above the resistance level came with high volume, indicating strong market participation. After the breakout, a minor pullback (retest) occurred, confirming previous resistance as new support. The price surged upward after the retest, validating the bullish trade setup. 4. Trade Setup & Risk Management A. Entry Strategy A trader would enter a buy (long) position after confirming the breakout. Entry Trigger: Either at breakout (high-risk, early entry) Or after a successful retest (safer entry) B. Stop Loss Placement A stop loss is placed below the previous support level at 1.07276, ensuring risk is limited in case of a false breakout. C. Target Projection The target price is measured using the height of the triangle added to the breakout level. Based on this calculation, the projected target is around 1.12838. 5. Conclusion & Trading Plan The EUR/USD pair has executed a clean ascending triangle breakout, signaling further bullish movement. The trading plan suggests: ✅ Entry: Buy after breakout confirmation or retest. ✅ Stop Loss: Placed below 1.07276 for risk management. ✅ Take Profit: Targeting 1.12838, based on the pattern’s height projection. This setup presents a high-probability long opportunity in a trending market, with proper risk management to protect against potential reversals.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
ID: 2025 - 0073.18.2025 Trade #7 of 2025 executed. So simple, yet far from easy... Trade entry at 30 DTE (days to expiration). This trade has a little more hot sauce and fire built into it. Unbalanced butterfly, close to expiration, will adjust the wing widths as the market adjusts either up or down. Goal is to be out of this trade in under two weeks before GAMMA really begins kicking in. The reason I like going in closer to expiration after big market moves, is the volatility is better, and fills are quicker, and spreads are tighter. The downside of playing super long DTE strategies is that when the market gets spooked or turbulent, the bid/ask spreads become a mile wide. Happy Trading! -kevin
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Kevins
PY/USD Analysis: Rising Wedge Bearish Reversal & Short SetupThis chart represents the JPY/USD (Japanese Yen vs. US Dollar) on a daily timeframe (1D), published on April 3, 2025, via TradingView. The price action and technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook based on the formation of a Rising Wedge Pattern, a classic reversal structure signaling potential price depreciation. 1. Chart Structure & Identified Patterns A. Rising Wedge Formation (Bearish Reversal Pattern) The price has been moving in an uptrend, forming higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). The two converging black trendlines indicate a rising wedge, a pattern that typically precedes a downside breakout. A rising wedge is considered a bearish signal, especially when formed after a strong rally. B. Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Zone (Highlighted in Beige, Upper Range) This level represents a historically significant supply area where selling pressure is expected. Price action shows multiple rejections at this level, indicating the presence of strong resistance. The red downward arrow further confirms that this level is acting as a cap on price movement. Support Zone (Highlighted in Beige, Lower Range) This area previously served as a strong demand level, where buyers stepped in, reversing the price. The green upward arrow suggests that it played a critical role in the prior bullish move. C. Key Price Levels All-Time High (ATH) Marked at ~0.007155 This represents the historical peak price, which serves as a potential long-term resistance. Stop-Loss Placement (~0.006959) This is placed above the resistance level to manage risk in case of a false breakout. Target Level (~0.006178) Based on the wedge height, this level is calculated as the measured move after a breakdown. 2. Price Action & Market Sentiment A. Recent Bullish Move The market has been in a strong uptrend since hitting the support zone. This move was characterized by higher lows and higher highs, reinforcing bullish momentum. However, momentum appears to be weakening as the price struggles to break through the resistance. B. Confirmation of a Bearish Reversal The price has touched the upper resistance zone multiple times but failed to break through. The trendline breakdown (expected move) suggests sellers are stepping in. A lower high formation is seen as an early warning of a reversal. 3. Trade Setup: Short Position Strategy This setup aligns with the principles of technical analysis, utilizing the Rising Wedge as a bearish reversal pattern. A. Entry Strategy Sell Entry Trigger: Enter a short trade upon a confirmed breakdown below the lower trendline. Retest Confirmation: Ideally, wait for a pullback to the broken trendline before shorting to avoid false signals. B. Risk Management Stop-Loss Placement: Above the resistance zone at 0.006959, to protect against an invalidation. Take-Profit Target: Set at 0.006178, calculated based on the wedge’s height projection. C. Reward-to-Risk Ratio (RRR) RRR = 2:1 or higher The target level offers a risk-reward ratio that justifies the trade setup. 4. Summary & Final Outlook Bearish Signals: ✅ Rising Wedge Pattern – A strong reversal indicator. ✅ Lower Highs and Weak Momentum – Suggests selling pressure. ✅ Failure to Break Resistance – Indicates bullish exhaustion. ✅ Projected Target Based on Wedge – Price expected to reach 0.006178. Neutral Considerations: If price does not break the lower trendline, the pattern is not validated. If a false breakdown occurs, prices may briefly recover before falling. Bullish Invalidation: If the price breaks above 0.006959 and sustains above resistance, the bearish setup is invalidated. Final Verdict: 📉 Bearish Bias – The market setup favors a downside move upon a confirmed breakdown. 🎯 Target: 0.006178 (Key support level). ⚠️ Risk: If the price does not break lower, consolidation may occur before a clearer move.
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
Opportunity Beneath the Fear: SPY's Reversal SetupIn the Shadow of Headlines: SPY’s Drop Could Be 2025’s Big Opportunity As markets react sharply to renewed tariff fears and Trump-related headlines, SPY continues its descent. Panic is setting in—but behind the noise, a strategic opportunity may be quietly forming. While many rush to exit, others are beginning to position for the bounce. A well-structured entry strategy could be key to turning uncertainty into gains. Entry Zone (Staggered): 🔹 543: First watch level—look for signs of slowing momentum. 🔹 515: Deeper entry point as the selloff extends. 🔹 <500 (TBD): Stay flexible—if panic accelerates, this could mark a generational setup. Profit Targets: ✅ 570: Initial rebound target. ✅ 590: Mid-range level if recovery builds. ✅ 610+: Full recovery potential—rewarding those with patience and vision. Remember: Headlines fade, but price action and preparation stay. This selloff may continue—but it might also be laying the foundation for 2025’s most powerful move. The key? Enter with discipline, protect your capital, and let the market come to you. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading carries significant risk. Always conduct your own research and use proper risk management.
AMEX:SPY
by Robert_V12
atom buy midterm"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟 We're a team of 📈 passionate traders 📉 who love sharing our 🔍 technical analysis insights 🔎 with the TradingView community. 🌎 Our goal is to provide 💡 valuable perspectives 💡 on market trends and patterns, but 🚫 please note that our analyses are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. 🚫 Instead, they reflect our own 💭 personal attitudes and thoughts. 💭 Follow along and 📚 learn 📚 from our analyses! 📊💡"
Long
by Golden_candle
BTC at a Crossroads: Breakdown or Fakeout to 84K?BTC Is At a Pivotal Level — Here's What I'm Watching We're hovering around 81,300. If that breaks, I’m watching for a move down to 79K. If selling pressure continues, 74K is next. And if that fails, 64K is on the table. But here’s the flip side — we could dip to around 81,200, hold, and squeeze up to 84K before the real drop begins. This is where traps happen. I’m staying cautious and letting price lead the way. Kris/Mindbloome Exchange Trade Smarter Live Better
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by Mindbloome-Trading
2
ES UpdateGap is still open but market is cycling down. RSI is not oversold yet. Probably a bounce when RSI hits oversold, but I don't expect a big one until the daily gets oversold. Market took such a big shit that firms had to sell gold futures for to cover losses and margin calls. So gold is red now as well. SO that play also appears to be done. Too bad I didn;t just short something before close like XLF or AAPL. Gaps are so huge, I have no idea how to play this. I don;t recommend going long today though, unless its just a day trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
8
PLTR Hovering at $80 Support: Will This Zone Absorb the Panic? 📉 Market Context: In the aftermath of the Trump tariff-driven market crash, PLTR is teetering at critical gamma + price support around $80.30. The question now: is this a trap door breakdown or a gamma bounce setup into OPEX week? 📊 Technical Analysis (1H Chart) Structure & Price Action: * PLTR’s short-term rally toward $91 was rejected at the GEX resistance zone. * Sharp breakdown back to $80 confirms this is a contested liquidity zone. * Current price sits at a red HVL zone, overlapping the PUT Support from options flow. Key Levels: * Support: * 🔻 $80.30–80.00: Major liquidity shelf & highest PUT support * 🔻 $77 / $75 = deeper gamma cliffs if $80 fails * Resistance: * 🔺 $82 = HVL reclaim needed to flip short-term trend * 🔺 $88–$91 = Gamma Resistance & supply zone * 🔺 $93–$97 = OTM CALL targets, low odds unless squeeze begins Indicators: * Volume spiking on sell candles, confirming the flush. * No bullish divergence visible yet on lower timeframes. * Still no structure signaling reversal — watching $80 reaction closely. 🧨 GEX + Options Sentiment GEX Insight (Options GEX ): * GEX Sentiment: 🔴🔴🔴 → deep in short gamma territory; dealers may hedge against bounces. * $80 = Highest negative NET GEX and PUT wall — this level is critical. * Below $80 → dealer gamma unwinding could accelerate → volatility spike. * Above $82 → could set up a fast magnet move to $88 if momentum shifts. Options Oscillator: * IVR 68.1 / IVx avg 84.3 → still relatively high, room for volatility to contract. * CALL$ 22.7% → moderate call buyers, but no clear signal of squeeze intent. * Time decay visible with large bets expiring in next 2 sessions. 🧭 Trade Scenarios 🐻 Breakdown Play: * Trigger: Candle close under $80.00 * Target: $77 → $75 (gamma void zone) * Stop: Above $82.00 * Notes: High odds for 0DTE / 2DTE PUTs on a weak open 🐂 Bounce from Gamma Support: * Trigger: $80 holds + reclaim $82 HVL with volume * Target: $88–$91 for gamma mean-reversion play * Stop: Below $79 * Ideal: Buy 0DTE/2DTE FWB:85C or debit spread targeting quick rebound 🎯 Summary: PLTR is sitting on the edge of a gamma shelf. $80 is the line between bounce and bleed. GEX shows this is the max pain zone. Bulls need to defend this level aggressively, or we open up for a potential flush to $75 with heavy dealer hedging in play. ⚔️ Suggested Trade: * 🔻 $80P 0DTE if market gaps below $80 * 🔺 FWB:85C 2DTE only after $82 reclaim with strong volume * 🎯 Scalpers can use $82/$88 as pivot zones Disclaimer: This breakdown is for educational purposes. Please trade based on your risk management and setup rules.
NASDAQ:PLTR
by BullBearInsights
1
EOS Higher Low: Long Analysis With Positive Crypto-Market TalkEOS is now trading three consecutive weeks green. Higher low after long-term bottom. Double-bottom in 2024. Good afternoon my fellow trader. You are the essence of the Cryptocurrency market. The Cryptocurrency market is alive today and it exists only because of you. Without you and me, there would be no Cryptocurrencies. Only your support makes it possible for this innovation to continue to expand, improve and grow. It is because of your attention and commitment that Crypto will continue to shine; Bitcoin is going up. We are not only Crypto but we are also the financial markets and all markets. We are reality, we are life and we are all one and the same. Let's do this together. We can improve our lives, our environment and achieve success. Together we can win. Now, let's trade! ___ EOSUSDT is bullish confirmed. One being bullish confirms the rest of the market being bullish or moving in this direction. This is only a valid statement because we know the market and how it works. We know EOS is one of the solid projects and we know its patterns and cycles. It tends to move with the rest and this time around it will be strong. Let's look closer. This week is new but it is green. New and green is good; 100% positive. The week that produced the higher low, 10-March 2025, is a classic Doji (reversal signal). This reversal is confirmed with the action we are seeing now. Three weeks green after a long-term higher low means that we are now, already, within the bull-market period. This is the start of long-term growth. Prices are still low. Very low. EOS will grow really wild. It will go really high. Prices will end up being really strong in 2025. 14X higher or more. You can always use the 'Filter ideas' feature in my profile to find other publications for this and other pairs with the 2025 All-Time High. Type EOSUSDT after tapping on my username and you will see what I mean. This will produce a list of results. EOSUSDT has been sideways since August 2023. Or June 2023 based on a price average in-between the high and low of the sideways period between that date and present day. We are talking about some 666 days. This is really good. This is a very strong consolidation phase. This confirms and supports what is coming next. Overall, marketwide. Real Altcoins market. Everything is looking good. The bottom is in and has been in for a long while now and we are getting ready for growth. We are still within the sideways period, but this phase won't be valid and active for long. Notice how we have three green weeks on EOSUSDT. The market will not move straight up but this is the beginning of a new bullish wave. It tends to fluctuate. This is normal and expected. We have no complaints. All is good that ends well. All is perfect when the market is set to grow. Great entry timing is possible now, all across. Buy and hold. Remember, you can leave a comment with your request for any Altcoins you want me to look at. I will consider it and publish based on the chart and overall market conditions. Thanks a lot for your continued support. We are doing good but things will get better. This is only the start. Wake up! It is not too late. The 2025 bull-market is on now. Thank you for reading. Namaste.
Long
by MasterAnanda
10
Gold: Soaring on Tariffs, Testing Technical WatersIn the early trading session of the Asian market on Thursday (April 3rd), spot gold continued its upward trend and once reached a new all - time high of $3,167 per ounce. This was because US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he would impose a benchmark tariff of 10% on all goods imported into the United States and impose higher tariffs on some of America's largest trading partners. This move will lead to an intensification of the trade war that he initiated after returning to the White House, causing the market's risk - aversion sentiment to soar sharply. However, given the rapid increase in the gold price, one should not blindly chase after buying more gold. On the one hand, the rapid rise in the gold price has accumulated a certain amount of pressure for a correction, and there is a high probability that a pullback and subsequent recovery rally will occur. On the other hand, the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls data will be released tomorrow. On the eve of its announcement, the market will not quickly break out of a well - defined trading range and price level. On the daily chart level, gold entered a downward adjustment mode on Tuesday, breaking the previous consecutive upward trend with positive candles. However, the current moving - average system still maintains a pattern of diverging upwards. Today, the key focus is on whether the downward movement of the market is sustainable. Firstly, we need to pay attention to the support effectiveness of the short - term moving average MA5. Currently, this moving average is roughly located around 3098, which is extremely close to yesterday's low of 3100 when the price dropped. If this support level can hold, then in the short term, gold can still be regarded as being in a strong pattern. XAUUSD buy@3105-3115 tp:3140-3160
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by JohnGonzalez7
2
EURJPY Double Top - Bearish Reversal Ahead Toward Target!🔍 Chart Analysis: Identifying the Double Top Pattern The EURJPY (Euro/Japanese Yen) 1-hour chart shows a classic Double Top pattern, which is a strong bearish reversal formation. This pattern occurs when the price reaches a significant resistance level twice but fails to break above it, indicating a potential shift from bullish momentum to bearish control. 1️⃣ Top 1: The first peak formed as buyers pushed the price higher, but strong resistance forced a pullback. 2️⃣ Top 2: The price attempted to break the same resistance level again but failed, forming a second peak at approximately 164.165, confirming that sellers are overpowering buyers. 3️⃣ Neckline (Support Level): The critical support level around 160.000 acted as a trigger for the bearish move. Once this level broke, the double top pattern was confirmed. 📌 Key Levels and Market Structure 🔹 Resistance (164.165): The highest level where sellers dominated, preventing further upward movement. 🔹 Support/Neckline (160.000): This level acted as a crucial pivot. Once broken, it signaled a trend reversal. 🔹 Take Profit Levels: TP1 – 159.036: This serves as the first profit target, aligning with a prior demand zone. TP2 – 157.200: The full projected downside move based on the double top pattern. 🔹 Stop Loss (SL): Above 164.165, ensuring a risk-managed approach in case of trend invalidation. 📉 Trading Strategy: How to Trade This Setup? 1️⃣ Entry Confirmation: The ideal entry was after the price broke the neckline at 160.000 and retested it as resistance. A breakdown candle with high volume confirmed seller dominance. 2️⃣ Stop-Loss Placement: A stop-loss above 164.165 provides room for price fluctuations while protecting against false breakouts. 3️⃣ Profit Targets: TP1: 159.036, securing partial profits. TP2: 157.200, completing the double top measured move. 📊 Market Psychology & Price Action Insights The double top pattern reflects a shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. The repeated rejection at 164.165 signals a lack of buying strength, increasing the probability of a downward move. The breakdown of the 160.000 neckline confirms that sellers have taken control. The price action also shows a lower-high formation, reinforcing bearish momentum. ✅ Conclusion: Bearish Bias Until 157.200 This setup strongly favors short positions, as long as the price stays below 162.500. A break above 164.165 invalidates the bearish setup, signaling a potential reversal. Until then, the market remains bearish, with TP1 & TP2 as achievable downside targets. 💬 What’s your outlook on EURJPY? Drop your analysis below! 👇
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
QQQ Slammed Below $465! Gamma Flip Confirmed QQQ Slammed Below $465! Gamma Flip Confirmed as Tariff Panic Grips Tech Sector 🌐 Macro Context (April 2, 2025) Trump’s new tariff announcement this morning ignited fear of inflation returning and disrupted global trade expectations. That spooked big tech and growth-heavy indices like QQQ, triggering gamma-driven liquidation and a sharp intraday breakdown. * Traders and dealers were not positioned for this headline — the rapid IV expansion and negative delta hedging caused a cascading sell-off. * From a GEX perspective, today’s action triggered a flip below HVL ($471), with gamma accelerating downside volatility. 📉 Technical Breakdown – 1H Chart Price Action: * QQQ attempted to push through $475–$480, but got rejected violently. * The huge red candle that nuked through $471 HVL and $469 confirmed a break of structure and bearish imbalance. Support Zones: * $455 – being tested now; psychological and options-related level * $453.86 – today’s session low * $450–$447 – likely short-term gamma target if weakness persists Resistance Levels: * $465 – 3rd PUT Wall * $471 – HVL (now major resistance) * $474–$477 – stacked CALL walls and former support 🔻 Options GEX & Dealer Positioning GEX Flow: * 🔴🔴🔵 = Short Gamma territory, and it’s growing more negative. * Highest GEX support has disintegrated, with dealers hedging by shorting into the drop. * Net GEX flipped negative below $471, increasing volatility. * Dealer gamma continues to point down, with no major PUT walls until $450 zone. Options Sentiment: * IVR 38.4 / IVx avg 35.6 – slightly elevated vol, but with more room to rise * PUTs 55.5% – bearish lean confirmed * Expiry in 2 days + tariff panic = likely continuation or high chop volatility tomorrow 📌 Trade Setups 🐻 Bearish Continuation (Preferred Bias) * Entry: Below $453.50 * Target: $450 → $447 * Stop: Above $458 reclaim * Contract Idea: 0DTE or 2DTE $455P/$450P depending on risk appetite * Note: Gamma trap zone from $455–$450 likely to accelerate price movement 🐂 Dead Cat Bounce Setup (Low Conviction) * Only valid if QQQ reclaims $465+ with volume + positive options flow * Target: $471–$474 * Play with small size or debit spreads due to risk of gamma reversal 🔍 Conclusion + My Thoughts This tariff-triggered crash was unexpected, and it created a dealer short-gamma loop in QQQ. The break below $471 HVL turned the table fast. Unless QQQ quickly reclaims $465+, we're likely heading to test $450 levels in the coming sessions. Tech tends to react aggressively to macro policy shifts, and the lack of near-term options support shows dealers are NOT stepping in. That opens the door for continued downside or extremely choppy relief rallies. Be fast. Be nimble. 🎯 Key Levels Recap: 🔴 HVL $471 Former support → resistance 🔻 Support $455 / $453.86 Price and psychological 🚨 GEX Target $450 / $447 Dealer hedging likely 🔼 Resistance $465–$471 Gamma ceiling now 📢 Final Tip: Watch VIX, bond yields, and /NQ overnight — any panic escalation may turn this into a larger gamma-driven flush. Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always manage your risk and position sizing accordingly.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
Check if it can rise along the rising trend line (2) Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- We need to see if USDT and USDC can continue the gap uptrend. - (BTC.D 1M chart) If BTC dominance rises above 62.47 and maintains or continues to rise, altcoins are likely to record a larger decline. Therefore, you should think about how to respond to the altcoins you are trading. If the uptrend continues, it is expected to rise to the Fibonacci ratio range of 0 (73.63) ~ 1 (77.07). In order for the altcoin bull market to begin, it must fall below 55.01 and be maintained or show a downward trend. - (USDT.D 1M chart) In order for the coin market to begin an upward trend, the USDT dominance must fall below 4.97 and be maintained or show a downward trend. If it does not, and it rises, the coin market is likely to show a downward trend. We need to see if it can meet resistance near the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 and fall. If not, the coin market will show a large downward trend as it rises to around 7.14. - USDT is likely to continue to rise. This is because it is the fund that supports the coin market. Due to this, USDT dominance is also likely to continue its upward trend. Therefore, rather than following the overall flow of USDT dominance, it is better to look at where it starts to decline. ----------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1D chart) Whether the price can be maintained above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart while maintaining the price above the upward trend line (2) and passing through April 4-6 is the key. In order to continue the upward trend, it must rise above 89294.25, so if possible, we should also look at whether it can rise above 89294.25. If it does not and falls along the downward trend line, it is possible that it will touch around 73499.86 during the volatility period around April 25. - The most recently formed high-point trend line is trend line (3). And, the recently formed low-point trend line is the (2) trend line. Since these two trend lines are not moving in one direction, we can see that we are currently in the volatility zone. If the StochRSI indicator rises this time and forms a peak in the overbought zone and then falls, the high-point trend line will draw an upward trend line like the low-point trend line. When that happens, it seems likely that the trend will start. Therefore, the point of interest is whether the two volatility periods in this April, around April 5 and around April 25, will become turning points. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​This is an explanation of the big picture. I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire BTC range. I rewrote the previous chart to update it by touching the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10). (Previous BTCUSD 12M chart) Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend. Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025. - (Current BTCUSD 12M chart) Based on the currently written Fibonacci ratio, it is displayed up to 3.618 (178910.15). Fibonacci ratio 0.618 (44234.54) is not expected to fall again. (BTCUSDT 12M chart) Looking at the BTCUSDT chart, I think it is around 42283.58. - I will explain it again with the BTCUSD chart. The Fibonacci ratio ranges marked in the light green boxes, 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10) and 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83), are expected to be important support and resistance ranges. In other words, it seems likely to act as a volume profile range. Therefore, in order to break through this section upward, I think the point to watch is whether it can rise with support near the Fibonacci ratios of 1.618 (89126.41) and 2.618 (134018.28). Therefore, the maximum rising section in 2025 is expected to be the 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83) section. To do that, we need to look at whether it can rise with support near 2.618 (134018.28). If it falls after the bull market in 2025, we don't know how far it will fall, but considering the previous decline, we expect it to fall by about -60% to -70%. So, if the decline starts near the Fibonacci ratio 3.14 (157451.83), it seems likely that it will fall to around Fibonacci 0.618 (44234.54). I will explain more details when the downtrend starts. ------------------------------------------------------
by readCrypto
Calibrating Trading Indicators for Different MarketsCalibrating Trading Indicators for Different Markets: A Beginner's Guide (Simple Steps to Adjust RSI , MACD , and Other Tools for Better Results) Key Idea : Just like you'd tune a guitar differently for rock vs. classical music, trading tools like RSI or MACD need adjustments depending on what you're trading (stocks, crypto, forex) and how it moves. This guide shows you how to tweak these tools using price swings (pivot points) to make them work better for your specific asset. --- Why "One Size Fits All" Doesn't Work Most traders use default settings for indicators (like RSI's 14-day period). But these defaults were created for "average " markets. Real markets aren't average! Example: - Crypto ( CME:BTC1! ) : Super volatile → Needs faster, more sensitive indicators. - Blue-Chip Stocks ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) : Less wild swings → Needs slower, smoother indicators. If you use the same RSI settings for both, you'll get bad signals. Calibration fixes this. --- The Pivot Point Method for Calibration One effective approach to calibration is measuring the natural rhythm of price swings between high and low points. Here's how to do it step by step: Step 1: Find Pivot Points on Your Chart Pivot points are like "price turning points." Use TradingView's ZigZag indicator (or draw them manually) to spot these swings. How to Add ZigZag on TradingView : 1. Open your chart. 2. Click "Indicators" → Search " ZigZag " → Select it. 3. Adjust settings (defaults work fine for starters). The ZigZag will draw lines between significant highs (peaks) and lows (valleys). --- Step 2: Measure the "Rhythm" of the Market Count the bars (candles) between pivot points to find the market's natural cycle. Example : - If Bitcoin swings from peak to peak every 14 bars on average, its "cycle" is 14 bars. - If Apple does this every 16 bars, its cycle is 16 bars. In the picture above, we used the Williams Fractal to identify pivots. Formula for Indicator Settings : - RSI Period = Half the average cycle → If cycle = 16 bars → RSI = 8 days. - MACD Settings : Fast EMA = ¼ cycle, Slow EMA = ½ cycle → Cycle = 16 → Fast EMA = 4, Slow EMA = 8 --- Step 3: Test Your Calibrated Indicators Backtest on TradingView : 1. Add your indicator (e.g., RSI) with the new settings. 2. Use the Strategy Tester (click "Add to Chart" → " RSI Strategy ") to see if signals improve. Look For : - Fewer false signals (e.g., RSI saying "oversold" too early). - Clearer trends (MACD crossovers matching price moves). --- Calibrating Popular Indicators (Simple Rules) 1. RSI (Relative Strength Index) - Default : 14 days. - Calibrated : Half the average cycle length. - Example : Cycle = 16 bars → RSI = 8 days. Why It Works : Shorter RSI reacts faster to volatile markets (like crypto). 2. MACD - Default : 12, 26, 9. - Calibrated : - Fast EMA = ¼ of cycle. - Slow EMA = ½ of cycle. - Signal Line = ⅙ of cycle. - Example : Cycle = 20 → Fast = 5, Slow = 10, Signal = 3. Why It Works : Matches the asset's natural momentum shifts. 3. Williams %R - Default : 14 days. - Calibrated : Same as RSI (half the cycle). --- How to Avoid Common Mistakes Mistake 1 : Overfitting (Making It Too Perfect for the Past) - Problem : If you calibrate too precisely to old data, it might fail in the future. - Fix : Test on 2 types of data: 1. Training Data : First 70% of your chart (to calibrate). 2. Testing Data : Last 30% (to check if it still works). Mistake 2 : Ignoring Market Changes - Problem : What works today might not work next month. - Fix : Recheck your settings every 3 months or after big news (e.g., Fed rate hikes). --- Free Tools to Help (No Coding Needed) 1. TradingView's "Auto-Detect Cycle" Scripts Search for indicators like "Cycle", "RSI Adaptive" or " Rainbow Adaptive RSI " in TradingView's public library. These automatically calculate cycle lengths (Not tested). 2. Adaptive MACD/RSI Indicators Try pre-built adaptive indicators like: - Adaptive MACD : Adjusts itself based on volatility. - Dynamic Pivot : Uses pivots to set stop-loss and take-profit levels. --- Building a Simple Pivot Calibration System Basic ZigZag Calibrator Method : 1. Add ZigZag to your chart. 2. Manually count the bars between 5 recent swings. 3. Calculate the average → Divide by 2 → Use that number for your RSI/MACD. Example : - Swings: 12, 14, 16, 10, 8 bars → Average = 12. - Calibrated RSI = 6 days. --- Why This Works (Without the Math) Markets move in waves. By matching your indicator's speed to the wave length, you "surf" the trend instead of fighting it. Research shows adaptive methods like this beat default settings. The Science Behind It When you calibrate to an instrument's natural rhythm: - Oscillators (RSI, %R) catch extremes at the right time - Trend indicators (MACD) signal changes faster - Volatility bands (Bollinger Bands) expand and contract appropriately --- A Step Further: Multi-Timeframe Calibration For even better results, calibrate across timeframes: 1. Calculate cycles on daily charts for swing trading 2. Calculate cycles on 4-hour charts for day trading 3. Use both calibrated indicators together for confirmation --- Final Tips for Beginners 1. Start Small : Calibrate one indicator (like RSI) first. 2. Use Free Tools : TradingView has thousands of free scripts to automate calculations. 3. Keep Records : Document what settings work for which assets. 4. Be Patient : Finding the right calibration takes time, but the results are worth it. Calibration isn't about being perfect—it's about making your tools work better for specific markets . Happy trading!
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by TradeVizion
2
TSLA Sitting on the Edge: Gamma Pivot or Breakdown? 🧠 Macro View: The Trump tariff shock sent waves across the market, particularly hitting growth and export-sensitive sectors. While NVDA and tech names dumped earlier, TSLA showed relative strength, bouncing near its high volume node — but this could change fast. 📊 Technical Analysis (1H Chart) Structure: * Price bounced from ~243 back toward 260, reclaiming key HVL. * But it failed to break through the 265–285 supply zone (Gamma Wall zone). * Now sitting on 260, a key equilibrium level. Levels: * Support: * 🔹 260 (Current HVL zone) * 🔹 250 – Gamma Put Support * 🔹 243.36 (recent low, key for invalidation) * Resistance: * 🔺 280 → Call Resistance / GEX Wall * 🔺 285–293 → Gamma ceiling, extremely difficult to break without institutional help Indicators: * Volume spiked on rejection from 280+, suggesting profit-taking or hedging. * TSLA must hold above 260 to avoid slipping into a liquidity vacuum toward 250 or lower. 🔥 GEX + Options Sentiment GEX Positioning: * GEX: 🔴🟢 — mixed but leaning negative * Call Walls: * 280 = Gamma Wall + Call Resistance * 285 = major rejection zone * Put Walls: * 250 = key dealer support * 245 & 240 = deeper magnets if panic resumes Options Oscillator: * IVR 67 → High implied volatility rank, meaning traders are buying premium. * IVx avg 87.2 vs current IVx (-0.35%) → indicates elevated fear is still embedded. * Call$ 23.6% → neutral-to-bearish skew (not heavily bullish) 🧭 Trade Setups 🐻 Bearish Breakdown: * Entry: Breakdown below 260 + confirmation with volume. * Target: 250 → 243 (Put wall & previous swing low) * Stop: 266+ * Catalyst: Further macro deterioration (tariff escalation, weak futures) 🐂 Bullish Bounce: * Entry: Bounce from 260 with reclaim of 265. * Target: 280 → 285 test (but high risk) * Stop: Close below 258 * Watch: Strength in QQQ or SPY supporting the move 📌 Final Thoughts: TSLA is at a tipping point. The Gamma wall at 280 caps upside unless we see an unwinding of fear. Dealers are likely short gamma below 260, and if 260 cracks, their hedging will accelerate the downside to 250–243. This is a reaction zone, not a trend zone** — trade lightly and watch for traps. ⚔️ Trade Idea: Buy 250P (1–2 week expiry) on breakdown below 260
Alt: Scalper can try 260C if market shows strong bounce and reclaim 265 with volume
Neutral bias till clear break of 260 or reclaim of 265+ This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by BullBearInsights
1
AUD/USD Trend Before and After Tariff Announcement✍ ✍ ✍ AUD/USD news: ➡️ AUD/USD is struggling to extend its previous day's recovery and remains below the 0.6300 mark early on Wednesday, as markets await U.S. President Trump's tariff announcement later in the day. However, buyers continue to find support from optimism surrounding Chinese stimulus measures and the RBA's cautious stance on policy outlook. ➡️ Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) faces a challenging task: ongoing trade tensions could drive higher inflation, potentially justifying prolonged rate hikes. However, early signs of a cooling U.S. economy suggests the need for restraint, even as labor market data remains solid. ➡️ During its March 19 meeting, the Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25–4.50% and reiterated its patient "wait-and-see" approach. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the need for caution, highlighting forecasts that indicate slower growth and slightly higher inflation—some of which could be exacerbated by the upcoming tariffs. Personal opinion: ➡️ The Australian Dollar has a 2-day winning streak, but this currency still depends on the developments of global trade tensions, China's growth prospects and central bank policy moves ➡️ Technically, AUD/USD has entered the overbought zone and is showing signs of decline. Therefore, it is difficult to maintain the upward momentum in the short term, especially with the upcoming US tariff announcement. ➡️ Analysis based on resistance - support levels and Pivot points combined with EMA to come up with a suitable strategy Plan: 🔆Price Zone Setup: 👉Sell AUD/USD 0.6295 - 0.6310 ❌SL: 0.6335 | ✅TP: 0.6255 - 0.6225 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Short
by FM-ForexMastermind
1
Hilarious algo failImagine getting one hour to think about what to do after the Trump speech, and coming up with the idea to sell your only winner (gold futures) at market price immediately after the one hour break, lol. Probably sold it to buy more index futures, lol, morons. Apparent that is what at least one of the algos did. It looks like all of the algos are desperate for cash right now because gold futures are not tracking spot price. (I posted a plot) If you bought GLD like I did, look at spot pricing XAU/USD tomorrow, not futures GC1!. We're up over 1% now.
COMEX:GC1!
by hungry_hippo