Beyond Technical Analysis
XRP UpdateLooking at XRP, we have the same situation we have with Solana. This is a regular update.
This trading pair produced a bullish breakout recently. This bullish breakout produced a "shy higher high," just as it happened with Bitcoin. This shy higher high is good news.
This is good news because the consolidation phase is not yet over, not in relation to maximum growth and bullish momentum developing for the market. When the market is sideways, price swings are happening all of the time, up and down. This up and down can result in whipsaws, money lost. A break of support can result in many stop-loss orders being activated, many LONG positions being liquidated; but the market broke up.
This breakout is part of the same consolidation phase but it opens the doors for prices to move lower without changing the chart structure, the bulls remaining ahead. We have 28 days left before boom-boom 2025 bull-market, and it is evident how the market has been bullish, sentiment wise, and fundamentally, but neutral, sideways and even bearish in some cases technically, the price. This is all part of the last opportunity to buy before the 2025 bull-market bull-run. This is the last chance, truly it is.
As for XRPUSDT, the main scenario we see is more consolidation coupled with a small retrace, can be days or weeks. This small retrace will keep the chart intact as mentioned, and any drops and retraces are a buy opportunity for smart traders; always LONG, never SHORT.
Why always LONG?
We are in a bull-market.
The initial move is bullish (starting in October 2024).
The small retrace is part of a period of consolidation before additional growth.
The chart is bullish, the market is bullish; everything turning positive and getting better by the day.
XRP won the battle against the SEC.
The people won the battle against the capricious and abuse of power officials in the previous government. These developments are positive for the crypto-space and will soon show up in the price, make no mistake. This is it.
Patience is key of course but we are in the green.
The market never moves straight up nor straight down, there are always periods of rest between each impulse wave.
This is not bad. This is great.
Take it for what it is. The market is giving you an opportunity to find money and invest in Cryptocurrency all you want. The market is giving you time, another chance, to position yourself and plan, all this before maximum growth.
Is this cheating?
Is this even legal?
We know exactly what is going to happen so we know what to do to achieve financial success.
Knowing things beforehand is not cheating nor illegal, this is all based on experience, dedication and hard work. These things give us wisdom and this wisdom we use to support each other and produce positive results.
We know the market is going to grow, the best action is to buy and hold focusing on the long-term.
The bull-market will be a standard bull-market, and that's ok.
Just as everything turns positive, when the market peaks some reasons will develop that will compel the giants to sell, and this will mark the top. This too is normal and expected, we accept the profits and move on.
When the next bearish cycle is in, this one will be much smaller than the last one, we just take it as another opportunity to buy-in, rebuy and reload.
The market will continue to fluctuate.
XRP will continue to grow.
We are now reaching the end of a consolidation phase while in the bullish zone.
All conditions are bullish.
The recent rise allows for a drop that will not break the positive structure of the chart. This is what it means.
After the last flush, expect big green.
You can always count on me to be here and share some numbers when the time is right.
I never look at the charts for entry, nor chase any pair.
When the time is right, based on intuition, I just take a leap and let the market take care of the rest.
So far in this cycle we have perfect timing with XRP.
But it is ok to know that some trades are loss, some others we win.
It is ok to be wrong.
It would be foolish to think we have to be perfect or need to win them all.
We don't need to win anything, we just need to do our job.
Insist and persist, consistency will yield the results you want.
The battle is already half won.
Cryptocurrency is now being fully supported by the law.
First we fight. We fought and we won.
Namaste.
Solana: long term trends...GM gents!
Take a look at the trends that are active in the monthly and quarterly timeframe in $SOLUSDT.
The most optimistic long term scenario implies a 42 to 1 reward ratio, and gains worth more than 1700% from here...
It's easy to be swayed by short term noise and miss out on these insane gains, I have helped many people achieve such results in the past and can do it again, make sure to follow me here and in my socials.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
$XAUUSD: Gold firing on all cylindersSeems like OANDA:XAUUSD triggered a weekly up trend again, you can see it has been trending up strongly since I called the long term trend in Gold would take place a while back (see related ideas). Trump's ideas regarding inflation and rates might influence the Federal Reserve's actions going forward, perhaps the market is pricing this in now.
Historically, precious metals move in correlation to real interest rates, that is, inflation adjusted interest rates. At times, Gold might be affected by broad scale deleveraging at times of market stress, since it acts as collateral for many investors, or it might be bought as a hedge for geopolitical risk. In normal periods, real rates influence price the most.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
RELIANCE KEY LEVELS FOR 27/01/2025**Explanation:**
This trading system helps you avoid blind trades by providing confirmation for better entries and exits.
**Entry/Exit Points:**
- **Entry/Exit Lines:** Use the BLACK line for long trades and the RED line for short trades, based on confirmation from your trading plan.
- **Stop Loss:** For long trades, set the stop loss at the RED line below. For short trades, set it at the BLACK line above.
- **Take Profit:** For long trades, target the next RED line above. For short trades, target the next BLACK line below.
**Timeframe:**
Use a 5 timeframe for trading.
**Risk Disclaimer:**
This setup is for educational purposes. I'm not responsible for your gains or losses. Check the chart for more details.
$COFFEE: Nice weekly up trendPEPPERSTONE:COFFEE has been trending strongly since the long term trend turned up recently, it now offers a low risk entry for commodity traders who use the Forex.com platform (fairly convenient since you can trade from the charts directly here, I have no affiliation with them btw).
Reward to risk is 3.75 to 1, which is very considering the larger than 60% probability than this outcome has...
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Even if it falls, you should prepare for an uptrend
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please click "Boost" as well.
Have a nice day today.
-------------------------------------
The High Boundary Zone has been changed to the 101947.24-103706.66 range.
Therefore, anything above 103706.00 is considered a high range.
However, the basic 106133.74 point is likely to act as resistance.
-
The StochRSI indicator is showing a decline to the 50 point range.
Therefore, since volatility is likely to occur, a quick response is required when trading.
Therefore, the point of observation is whether there is resistance near 106133.74.
When a new candle is created, if the StochRSI indicator falls below the 50 point, the key point is whether there is support near 101947.24-103706.66.
If there is support, I think there is a high possibility that the uptrend will continue.
If the StochRSI indicator enters the oversold zone and falls below 101947.24 and shows resistance, you should check whether it touches the BW(0) indicator or the HA-Low indicator.
The 93576.0-34742.35 zone is expected to be an important support and resistance zone.
------------------------------
It seems that a lot of funds have flowed into the coin market through USDC.
Accordingly, the coin market is likely to show an upward trend soon.
As I said before, for the altcoin bull market to start, BTC dominance must fall below 55.01 and remain there or show a downward trend.
The maximum decline point of USDT dominance is expected to be around 2.84.
After that, since USDT dominance is expected to show an upward trend, the coin market is expected to show a downward wave.
If it goes up by 4.97 or more, I think you can definitely tell that a downtrend is in progress.
-
Based on the above coin market cap chart, this uptrend is expected to be the last uptrend.
Therefore, even if the price falls, a trading strategy that prepares for an uptrend is needed.
The point to watch is whether this uptrend can rise to the Fibonacci ratio point of 2.24 (116940.43).
This volatility period is expected to continue until January 31.
The next volatility period is expected to be around February 9-16.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
-----------------
Trading Signal : DOGECOIN ($DOGE) -1D - BREAKOUTTechnical Analysis:
Price remains in a strong Uptrend across all timeframes. Recently, it broke above the $0.37 resistance and prior swing high, signaling renewed bullish momentum. The presence of a Dragonfly Doji at this breakout level reinforces the bullish case, as the long lower wick indicates that sellers pushed the price lower but were overpowered by buyers. Momentum remains positive, as the MACD Line is above the Signal Line, and the RSI confirms the price is not yet overbought (RSI < 70). The breakout positions the price to target the next key resistance at $0.48, with potential for further upside if bullish conditions persist.
Entry Zone:
Enter on a confirmed breakout above $0.37, or on a pullback and retest of this level as new support.
Targets (Take Profit):
TP1: $0.48 (+30%).
TP2: $0.55 (if bullish momentum continues).
Stop Loss:
Below $0.35 to limit downside risk.
This notification constitutes a marketing communication. The information provided does not constitute a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell any crypto-asset. It is not intended as investment advice, and no consideration has been given to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or individual needs of any recipient. Any decision to act on the information provided is made at the sole discretion of the recipient. SwissBorg disclaims any liability for losses arising from the use of this material. Recipients should consult their own professional advisors before making investment decisions.
Bitcoin correction inevitableTime to Chart the King!
If you've checked my recent ideas, you'll find onefrom 11 December 2022 titled "Run it Back Turbo." Check it out!
Press the play button to see how I've pinpointed the perfect bottom!
Now, let's dive into why I've decided to close my trade:
Wave Count: I've marked the 5 waves we've seen so far.
Wave Comparison: Using the Date & Price Range tool, I've compared the size of wave 3 to wave 5. Wave 5 typically matches or exceeds wave 3, and you can see the King has done just that. How much more do you need to satisfy your greed?
ABC Correction: We're expecting an ABC correction where:
A Wave: Should hit the 0.382 Fibonacci level drawn from the bottom of the count to the current wave 5 peak.
B Wave: Logically, this would reach the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
C Wave: Expected to extend to the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
Fibonacci Retracement for Wave 5: If you draw a Fibonacci retracement just for the 5th wave, you'll see:
The A wave should touch the 0.618 level of this measurement.
The B wave goes to the 0.382
The C wave, as usual, should retrace fully to the 1.000 Fib level, where it began.
CME Gap: Check out the 1-day chart below to see there's still a CME gap to fill on the way down.
Monthly Close: We're nearing the first monthly close of Q1. Take a look at the RSI; there's a clear bearish divergence forming.
Liquidity Clusters: The liquidity clusters below look enticing and are prime for grabs, essential for further upward movements. Remember, this market thrives on the ping-pong effect with short stop hunts and liquidation hunts, followed by the same to the longs, rinse and repeat.
Here you see a freshly pulled LiqMap from The Kingfisher platform currently the only one I know of which can show you these clusters. As you can see we have a ton of liquidity to tap into before we can resume this bullrun!
Conclusion:
The King Needs to Reset!
No reason to be upset. Everyone needs a rest after such a run. We will resume our journey soon enough, reaching those higher targets sooner or later. See the bright side: we can sell now, load up at cheaper prices, and potentially make even bigger profits.
Follow me for updates to this idea and follow me on X for even more insights!
Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
NASDAQ closed lower, finding support at the 5-day moving average. Last Friday unfolded as expected, with a correction to the 5-day line being part of the wave pattern, making a sell-oriented approach the best strategy for the day. The downward wave emerged in the afternoon rather than during the pre-market, resulting in extended consolidation. On the weekly chart, it formed a bullish candle, reaching the upper range of the box zone; however, the MACD has yet to fully cross above the signal line.
This week, the area between the 3-day and 5-day moving averages (20,800–20,600) could act as a short-term pullback buying zone. If this area fails to hold and prices close lower with a bearish candle, the market might revert to maintaining a wide-ranging box zone. Therefore, it's crucial to close the week with a bullish candle to confirm a buy signal.
On the daily chart, the MACD and signal line are positioned above the zero line, indicating that buying pressure could persist. However, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting that significant additional surges are unlikely. A short-term correction perspective is advisable. If prices fail to decisively break above the 3-day moving average near 21,950, a correction to the 10-day moving average should be considered.
The 240-minute chart shows the emergence of a long bearish candle forming a double top. If Friday’s low at 21,844 is breached, there’s a strong likelihood of filling the gap created on January 22. The MACD and signal line still show a significant gap from the zero line, so there could be support and a rebound at the lower levels. In summary, while a short-term sell perspective is advisable, buying opportunities could emerge near the gap-filling zone around 21,700 during pullbacks.
OIL
Oil closed higher at $74, finding support and forming a bullish daily candle for the first time in six trading sessions. This bounce establishes a foothold at the key support level of $74. On the weekly chart, prices found support at the 5-day moving average. Although the MACD has crossed above the zero line, the signal line is still slightly below it.
If a bullish candle forms this week, it will confirm a buy signal on the weekly chart, favoring buy-oriented strategies. On the daily chart, prices could rise again, finding support at the 20-day moving average. However, the sharp downward angle of the recent decline from $79 and the ongoing sell signal from the MACD indicate that any rally may face resistance and pullbacks.
If prices rebound to the $77–$78 range, there is a high probability of a pullback. The $74–$79 range is likely to hold, with a period of consolidation allowing moving averages to converge. On the 240-minute chart, bullish divergence is forming near $74, and the MACD is on the verge of generating a buy signal. A buy-oriented strategy on pullbacks is advisable.
GOLD
Gold closed higher with an upper shadow on the daily candle. On the weekly chart, prices reached the upper Bollinger Band. The MACD, however, has yet to achieve a golden cross above the signal line, keeping the sell signal intact. A strong rally with a long bullish candle would be required to confirm a buy signal.
If additional upward momentum fails and prices start to decline, the MACD may turn downward again. The current gap between the MACD and signal line suggests that an immediate buy signal might not be achievable. On the daily chart, buying pressure remains strong, and as long as the 10-day moving average holds, a one-way buying trend is likely.
On the 240-minute chart, resistance is evident at higher levels, and divergence in the MACD could occur. It’s advisable to avoid chasing prices higher. Given the staircase-like upward movement, a buy-oriented approach on pullbacks is recommended.
This Week’s Key Events:
FOMC meeting (Wednesday)
Tesla and Meta earnings reports (Wednesday)
Apple earnings report (Thursday)
Expect heightened volatility on Wednesday and Thursday. Good luck with your investments this week!
■Trading Strategies for Today
NASDAQ - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 21,850 / 21,785 / 21,720 / 21,630 / 21,530
-Sell: 21,970 / 22,010 / 22,055 / 22,105
OIL - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 74.15 / 73.40 / 72.80 / 72.40
-Sell: 75.20 / 75.95 / 76.40 / 77.10
GOLD - Bullish Market
-Buy: 2,774 / 2,768 / 2,762 / 2,752
-Sell: 2,782 / 2,793 / 2,799 / 2,816
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
WTI Crude Oil Futures: The Chokers of the Global EconomyLast Friday, January 10, 2025, the United States announced its most sweeping and aggressive sanctions against Russian oil trade, just ten days before Joe Biden leaves the White House and is replaced by Donald Trump.
In fact, it was more of a soap opera at first, as an unofficial document of unknown origin on the subject of sanctions had been circulating on the Web since the Fridays' morning before the official press release from the US Treasury appeared, causing the stock quotes of the companies affected by the sanctions to experience increased volatility in Friday trading on the local exchange.
Finally, about 160 oil tankers were sanctioned, and India, a key buyer of seaborne barrels, will not allow ships to call at its ports after the end of the curtailment period in March.
If these measures remain in place under Trump, they have a better chance of disrupting Russian oil exports than anything any Western power has done so far.
In addition to the tankers, sanctions were imposed on two major producers and exporters, traders arranging hundreds of shipments were listed, major insurers were named and two U.S. oil service providers were ordered to leave. A Chinese oil terminal operator was also included.
The measures could theoretically reduce what the International Energy Agency forecasts as a supply glut of nearly 1 million barrels a day this year.
Brent and WTI crude futures, which have generally traded lower for the past two and a half years, ended Friday at $80, data from ICE Futures Europe and CME Group's Nymex show.
Surgutneftegaz Sanctions RUS:SNGS and Gazpromneft RUS:SIBN are by far the most direct and aggressive move taken so far by Washington or any other Western power.
Together, the two companies shipped about 970,000 barrels of oil per day by sea in 2024, and their inclusion on the list will be a cause for concern for refineries in India as well as state-owned companies in China.
Putting their seaborne flows in context, that’s more than the global supply glut the International Energy Agency predicts for 2025. It’s also nearly 30% of Russia’s seaborne exports.
No one is suggesting that either company’s shipments will be completely shut down, but the fact that they are under sanctions, as well as other measures announced, means that supply chain disruptions and supply shortages cannot be ruled out.
Global markets, which were also hit by the December NFP report, reacted as expected.
The Nasdaq-100 immediately fell about 1%, the U.S. dollar index TVC:DXY rocketed to the moon while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds TVC:TNX jumped nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, its highest since October 2023.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average - a benchmark for the global economy - ended last week lower for a sixth straight week, while Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Bears are already dreaming to enter a Bear Market, approaching a 20% decline from the highs of around $108,000 reached in December 2024.
The technical main graph is dedicated specifically to WTI oil futures (the contract following the expiring one), and supported by the averages of the 5- and 10-year SMA.
It points to the reversal of the disinflationary time span seen in the previous two and a half years, from mid-2022.
// Don't say "hop" , before you throned 😏
Gbpusd continuation to the upside. Price Action : GBP/USD is currently in a 4-hour Point of Interest (POI) bullish pattern which shows a retracement.
London Session took out Asian lows, indicating a strong bullish momentum.
SMT divergence with EUR/USD.
Entry: 15min fvg balanced @1.2245
Target: Asian highs and the ultimate target is the buyside at 1.23455.
BEARISH DOGE - COULD THIS BE THE START OF A FLUSH DOWN? SIT DOGEWe've noticed an interesting pattern on Doge.
Normally with news and hype, DOGE would/should have 2x-7x by now with Elon being close to the US regulators. It would seem clear to me that after today's TSLA trading session, and trump news, and the level that DOGE is currently at, we firmly believe a massive ~ -33% drop is coming for DOGE while the next few days, bearish tilt increases and fear settles in.
BTC - Top around October 2025 - bottom in October 2026I was fooled by the bearish divergence on the 1W-3W charts in thinking that we'd get another correction from these levels. That is still possible, but this overview is based on if we just continue up from these levels.
Our next stops could be 112K, and 127,500K. Maybe we get a correction from those levels.
I think that the BTC top will probably be around 174K - 250K. If all goes as it has in the past, then we probably top around October of this year. Then we would be in a downward bear market until October of 2026, where the bottom will probably be around 80% from wherever we top.
Also, we do appear to be doing a classic Elliot Wave 5 wave structure, so we may do a big ABC type move downward into October of 2026.
Gold can fly to higher highs @2800Hey traders and investors! 🚀 Hope you're shining bright today! Today, January 23, 2025, I'm sharing my thoughts on gold
Gold has broken through the resistance zone ($2,740-$2,720) and is forming a potential Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. The Commitment of Traders (CoT) report also shows a bullish sentiment. 📈
Gold is looking bullish! Key points to watch :
Entry Price: $2,744
Target Price: $2,767
Stop Loss: $2,735
Your feedback is valuable!
- Like this post if you found it informative!
- Comment below with your thoughts on the gold market!
- Share this post with your fellow traders and investors!
Trade safe and stay informed! 💡
Best wishes Tom 😎
GBPUSDHello Traders! What are your thoughts on GBPUSD?
My GBPUSD Technical Analysis Breakdown
Current Market Context
The British Pound versus US Dollar (GBPUSD) has shown resilience by bouncing from the critical $1.2300 support level. This price action suggests buyers are defending this level, though we remain within a larger bearish channel.
Technical Setup
- Strong support established at $1.2300
- Key resistance level: $1.2440 (bearish channel resistance)
- Current price action: Upward momentum from support
- Market structure: Inside bearish channel
Trade Scenarios
1. Bullish Scenario
- Entry Trigger: Clear break and close above $1.2440
- Profit Target: $1.2610
- Stop Loss: Below $1.2300
- Risk/Reward ratio: Approximately 1:2
2. Bearish Scenario
- Entry Trigger: Break below $1.2300
- Profit Target: $1.2210
- Stop Loss: Above $1.2340
- Risk/Reward ratio: Approximately 1:2.2
Today's Trading Plan
- Trading Range: $1.2300 - $1.2475
- Recommendation: Wait for clear breakout confirmation
- Risk Management: Keep position sizes moderate given current market uncertainty
- Key Action Points: Watch for strong price action and volume at key levels before entering
Remember: Enter trades only when your chosen scenario shows clear confirmation signals. This reduces the risk of getting caught in false breakouts.