Beyond Technical Analysis
6/23 Gold Analysis and Trading ViewsGood morning, everyone!
Over the weekend, former President Trump announced and carried out an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, triggering a renewed wave of risk-off sentiment in the markets. At today’s open, gold surged to around 3394. Driven by geopolitical tensions, the bearish technical structure has temporarily been disrupted.
Whether the bullish momentum can sustain will depend on how the situation continues to unfold.
Key technical levels to watch today:
Resistance: 3389 / 3407 / 3423 / 3432
Support: 3372 / 3365 / 3356 / 3348
Trading strategy: Given the current news-driven market, a buy-on-dip approach is preferred, with short positions as a secondary option depending on price reaction near resistance zones.
Also, pay close attention to today’s daily close (1D chart). If the price closes below 3355, it could signal profit-taking from the bulls, potentially pulling gold back into a bearish technical trend.
craziest biggest yugest risk on right now? what is war and bomb?craziest biggest yugest risk on right now? what is war and bomb?
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#XAUUSD #GOLD 4H#XAUUSD 4H Trade Update
Gold continues to respect its bullish market structure, with clear Breaks of Structure (BOS) and formation of higher lows. Currently, price is consolidating around a key ascending trendline and demand zone.
📍 Entry Zone: 3,340 – 3,345
🎯 Targets: 3,370 / 3,390 / 3,400
❌ Stop-Loss: Below 3,315
This setup was shared yesterday and has since been perfectly activated as price tapped into our marked demand zone.
#Gold #Silver #ForexTrading #XAUUSD #PriceAction
Can 6 Holes in a mountain move gold this week? 23-27 June 2025Hello fellow traders of OANDA:XAUUSD
All about last week here
Since Israel's attack on Iran on Friday, June 13th, aimed at destroying all facilities for potential nuclear weapons production, the gold price initially rose to $3450. This surge lasted until Monday, June 16th, during the European session, but then began to fall from there. 📉🔻
Signs of potential peace talks and a swift end to the conflict largely made investors hesitant to invest. Throughout the week, the gold price mostly reacted negatively to higher prices due to investor uncertainty. This was further exacerbated by the fact that the US had not yet entered this war, which Israel initiated. 🕊️😟
However, since the US attack with bunker-busting bombs on the nuclear facilities on June 21st, they are now part of the conflict. Not least for this reason, they might become the target of retaliatory strikes, as already announced by the Iranian regime. 💣💥
If one looks at the timeline of news and announcements regarding potential US involvement in this war, and the two-week waiting period announced by President Trump, it will certainly become clear that this was nothing more than tactics. It was foreseeable that the US would become involved in the conflict, not least because the Israelis lack the appropriate weapons. The possibility of the US providing these weapons to the Israelis was also in the news; however, it then became clear that this specific bomb could only be used by the Stealth Bomber B2. This made it evident that it was only a matter of timing when it would happen, and they naturally wanted to keep that secret – anything else would be nonsensical anyway. 🤫✈️
What's to be expected next? Regarding this conflict, I hope for a swift end. 🕊️🙏 As for the gold price, well, I still believe in a new All-Time High (ATH). 🚀🌟 Will it come this week? Possibly. But the much more important question is whether the Iranian regime will truly dare to attack the US and exact revenge. 🤔⚔️
Market Structure:
The chart shows a clear shift from bullish 🐂 to bearish 🐻 structure. We see a significant high around June 13th at approximately $3,451, followed by a break of structure with lower highs and lower lows forming. 📉
Key Levels: 🔑
Premium levels: The area around $3,440-$3,451 represents premium pricing where institutional selling likely occurred. 💎
Fair Value Gaps: There appear to be several imbalances/gaps that price may seek to fill, particularly around the $3,380-$3,400 zone. 🎯
Order Blocks: The consolidation areas around $3,320-$3,340 and $3,380-$3,400 represent potential institutional order blocks. 🧱
Institutional Levels: 🏦
Psychological resistance: $3,450 level acted as significant resistance. 🚧
Current support cluster: $3,320-$3,340 area showing multiple touches. 🛡️
Liquidity zones:
The recent lows around $3,293 represent buy-side liquidity that institutions may target. 💧
Fibonacci Analysis: 📏
Based on the major swing from the low around June 9th ($3,300) to the high on June 13th ($3,451):
50% retracement: ~$3,375 (already tested and failed) 📉
61.8% retracement: ~$3,357 (near current price action) ✨
78.6% retracement: ~$3,337 (aligns with support cluster) ✅
Gann Concepts: 🔢
The timing shows potential significance around the June 13th high, with subsequent price action following geometric price relationships. The current price action around $3,328 suggests we're testing important Gann square relationships from the cycle highs. 📐
Cycle Timing: ⏰
The approximately 10-day cycle from low to high to current retracement suggests we may be in a corrective phase that could extend into late June, with potential for cycle lows around the June 25-27 timeframe based on typical precious metals cycles. 🗓️
Current Assessment:
Price appears to be in a corrective phase testing the $3,320-$3,340 institutional support zone. A break below could target the cycle lows, while a hold here with reclaim of $3,380 could indicate accumulation for the next leg higher. ⚖️🔍
Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
Market Structure 1hr According to what's happening between Iran and Isreal and Trump has attacked Iran in my anticipation and what I do see in the marketplace honestly right now and how the markets has been moving its so terrible so being more careful is important but am anticipating lower prices in this market NAS100 Index, that's not calling it for anybody to short but that's what am thinking is going to happen, it's going to be a nice week ahead at Sunday opening and there we shall see where we want to roll to
Everybody loves Gold Part 5Keeping it steady and reasonable
Part 5 weekly path is as shown.
Here's a breakdown of trading dynamics:
1. Expecting price to break past green line, level of significance (LOS) for continuation down
2. Price might bounce back for which; will be looking for a continuation from +50/+100 or +150pips to the downside
3. Will be looking for double tops/bottom along the way: Last week saw classic double top formed around level of significance (LOS)
As always price action determines trades
EurCad 06/19/25 NYPre-Analysis
1) Session Break (NY took out L)
2) Expecting? (Channel)
3) High Volume located at (Breach)
4) Leg being traded? (2)
5) Market digestion? (1hr)
6) Edge? (S1) higher TF is (4hr)
7) Edge Specifics? (S1H)
8) Continuation
9) Micro Timeframe (15min)
10) Class (A)
Improvements
hold trade as analyzed
scale in
Bearish GBP/USD Outlook: Shorting the Pound Against the DollarI can write a lot of text here but let make it short, liek and sub from you for that:
3 options:
pump till PDH then dump to weekly FVG 1.34 area
dump from here till weekly FVG 1.34 area
if it breaks above PWH with good volume and closing at least on 4h then only longs
CRV Approaching Demand — Bottom Fishing in the $0.40–$0.49 Zone🎯 BINANCE:CRVUSDT Trading Plan:
Scenario 1 (Reversal from Demand):
Look for bullish SFP, engulfing, or reclaim in $0.40–$0.49 zone
If confirmed, long with first target $0.83
Tight stop below $0.39
Scenario 2 (Breakdown):
If $0.39 breaks decisively, step aside — risk of new lows
🔔 Triggers & Confirmations:
Enter only with clear bullish trigger on LTF (H1/H4)
No trade if price grinds below $0.40
📝 Order Placement & Management:
🟩 Buy Zone: $0.40–$0.49 (alerts on wicks into zone)
🛡️ Stop: Below $0.39
🎯 Target: $0.83
🚨 Risk Warning:
Only bottom fishing with confirmation — avoid knife catching
[XAUSD] Potential Bearish Move During Asian SessionAlthough sentiment going into Monday is broadly bullish , driven by escalating geopolitical tension and anticipation of a breakout, XAU/USD may still open with a brief pullback , not because traders are ignoring the situation, but because markets often test the conviction of retail and early-positioned bulls before making a decisive move.
When gold opens during the Asian session, a wave of participants—already leaning bullish—may rush in with early long entries. However, smart money and institutional traders often prefer to buy on value , not at the highs. So instead of chasing price above $3,368–$3,370 immediately, they may allow or even trigger a short-term flush— pushing price down to retest key support at $3,343.88 . This level aligns with prior structure and psychological comfort: it offers an opportunity for a cleaner re-entry , or for those who missed the move on Friday to establish positions.
This decline isn't a breakdown, but a strategic sweep of weak hands and stop losses —a classic fake-out move. Once that level is tagged and buyers step back in, the market quickly finds footing. With news-driven urgency and broader sentiment tilting toward risk aversion, gold recovers fast. By late Asia or early London hours, price grinds back toward the $3,385–$3,390 zone , right below the known bullish breakout ceiling.
This kind of "bearish tap then bullish reclaim" sequence builds the technical base necessary for a stronger breakout attempt later in the session—shaking out early longs and inviting smarter buying near support rather than resistance.
ETH / USDC Pool StakeSharp sell-off following the U.S. strike on Iran—ETH whale has entered. Set your liquidity pool range wide to capture a potential rebound. If the price continues to drop, no problem—full ETH position is anchored at the bottom of the range. Avoid swapping ETH to realize losses. Hold your original ETH and continue adjusting the range downward if needed. Your only real costs are minting and gas fees, so operate on a low-cost network like Arbitrum or Base to keep expenses minimal.
Skeptic | Weekly Watchlist Top Triggers for Forex, Gold & More!DXY: The Market’s Compass
Let’s kick it off with DXY—the Dollar Index every trader needs to watch to get the market’s big picture.
Daily Timeframe: After a failed break below the critical support at 98.801 , DXY dumped to 97.596 , then pulled back to test 98.801 . With rate cuts looking likely soon , I’m betting on more downside for DXY. The only wildcard? Rising Middle East tensions could spike inflation, push rates higher, and strengthen DXY, hammering crypto and CFD indices.
4-Hour Triggers:
Short: Break below 98.530 —a clean setup to ride down to 97.596 . I’m leaning heavier on this, pairing it with USD-based forex trades for max R/R. 😤
Long: Break above 99.114 —riskier against the trend, so keep stops tight and profits quick.
Pro Tip: Shorts are the safer play here, but watch geopolitical news for sudden reversals.
EURX: Uptrend Power
EURX is flexing some muscle.
Weekly Timeframe: The resistance at 1072.6 looks broken. If we avoid a fakeout and hold above this zone, I’m expecting the major uptrend to keep rolling.
Game Plan: No trigger needed—just confirm a few 4-hour candles above 1072.6, and I’m opening longs on EUR-based pairs. Patience for confirmation is key! 🙌
Pro Tip: Watch for fake breakouts—let the market prove itself before jumping in.
Commodities: Gold & Silver
XAU/USD (Gold)
My gold analysis from last week still holds ( check it if you missed it—it’s got Middle East war scenarios and Bitcoin insights too ). No need to repeat—go read it for the full scoop! 📚
XAG/USD (Silver)
Silver’s been on a wild ride after a massive pump.
4-Hour Timeframe : We’re now in a 4-hour range, which makes sense, and I expect it to linger into next week.
Triggers:
Long: Break above resistance at 37.31559 .
Short: Break below support at 35.56800 .
Pro Tip: If you’re holding my 33.68317 long from last week, don’t close yet—let it ride for more gains. If you’re not in, avoid FOMO and wait for the range break. 😎
Forex Pairs
EUR/USD: Ready to Pop
With EURX in an uptrend and DXY likely breaking support, I’m super bullish on EUR/USD next week.
4-Hour Triggers:
Long: Break above resistance at 1.15429 . No need for RSI or SMA confirmation—just a clean breakout, and we’re in. 🚀
Short: Break below 1.13566—only if EURX’s 1072.6 break turns out to be a fakeout.
Pro Tip: Longs are the play here—keep it simple and ride the breakout wave.
GBP/USD: Bearish Break
GBP/USD is looking spicy after a downward move.
Daily Timeframe: The upward channel broke to the downside. I cloned the channel and placed it below—support at 1.34090 is massive, with multiple reactions in the past.
4-Hour Trigger: Break below 1.34090 opens a bearish move with high R/R. I’m personally shorting this break. 😤
Pro Tip: This is a key level—set alerts and don’t miss it!
USD/JPY: Range Game
USD/JPY is stuck in a long 4-hour box range.
4-Hour Timeframe: Price keeps testing the ceiling but travels less toward the floor, showing traders want to break up, not down.
Triggers:
Long: Break above ceiling at 146.204.
Short: Break below the upward trendline, then support at 145.194 .
Pro Tip: Longs have more juice—watch for volume on the break.
EUR/CHF: Mirror of USD/JPY
EUR/CHF is vibing like USD/JPY—a 4-hour box range.
4-Hour Triggers:
Long: Break above resistance at 0.94293 .
Short: Break below channel floor at 0.92963 .
Pro Tip: Wait for a clean break—ranges can be choppy!
Final Vibe Check
That’s your Weekly Watchlist , fam! I’ll keep you updated daily as markets shift. Stay safe with capital management—max 1% risk per trade, no excuses. This week’s loaded with banger triggers, so sit down now, analyze, and set your alerts so you don’t miss a single move. Let’s make it a profitable week! 🚨
💬 Let’s Talk!
If this watchlist got you hyped, smash that boost—it means the world! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to hit next? Drop it in the comments. Thanks for rolling with me—keep trading sharp! ✌️
Nifty 50 Bullish SignalsThe Nifty 50 Index on the weekly chart has been consolidating within a defined range for the last 5 weeks, as highlighted in the green box. Here's a quick breakdown:
1. Next Week Ascending CPR (Central Pivot Range)
Implication: An ascending CPR suggests bullish sentiment. It indicates that price action is likely to trend upward, especially if the index stays above or bounces from the CPR.
CPR levels are moving higher week over week, showing positive price structure and strengthening momentum.
2. Weekly Golden Pivot Zone
The golden pivot zone (between Weekly CPR and S1) is considered a strong support zone.
In the chart, price bounced sharply from that zone, confirming its strength.
It now acts as a demand zone. As long as the price remains above this zone, bullish momentum is intact.
What the Monthly CPR Suggests:
✅ Bullish Bias for June-July:
Price above CPR + strong bounce from the buy reversal zone = continuation of uptrend is likely.
As long as price holds above 24,600 (CPR center) or 24,426 (L3 Buy Reversal), expect higher highs.
⚠️ Key Trigger Levels:
Bullish Breakout Trigger: Above 25,400 (M-H4)
Bearish Reversal Caution: Below 24,426 may indicate weakness, especially if it breaks 24,101 (L4).
Strategy Insights:
Buy on Dips: If Nifty pulls back near the CPR zone (~24,600–24,800), it offers a potential long entry.
Upside Targets: 25,276 → 25,400 → 25,781
Avoid Shorts unless price closes below 24,600 with strong volume.
Bull Trap or Bear Bait? The Real Agenda Behind the Crypto PumpThe market just printed a powerful pump—and traders are standing at the edge of uncertainty.
What if the bears are right? What if this sudden surge was nothing more than a carefully staged bull trap, luring buyers into FOMO entries, only to dump hard and leave them holding the bag?
Or maybe…
What if this was a setup for the bears? A calculated move to bait sellers into opening shorts, before a single violent candle wipes them out, triggering mass liquidations on the way up.
It’s a psychological battleground—buyers and sellers clashing at a critical zone.
So, what’s really going on? Is this a trap to crush longs, or a setup to punish the shorts?
Let’s break it down.
What do you think? Vote below: Bull Trap / Bear Bait?
Follow for real-time analysis as this plays out
MSFT Rejected the Top — Here's What to Watch This Week Jun 23 MSFT saw rejection at the upper bounds of its rising channel and is now sitting at a key decision point as both GEX sentiment and price structure signal caution ahead of the week. Let's break it down.
🔍 GEX (Gamma Exposure) & Options Sentiment
* Call Walls:
* 490 (2nd Call Wall)
* 495 (Top Call Wall)
* Put Walls:
* 472.5 → Major pivot zone
* 460 → Strong PUT support
* Key Net Gamma Zone:
* Highest Positive GEX at 477.5 — acting like a magnetic pivot
* Below 472 → Opens up risk to 460 flush
📊 IVX avg: 24.6 | PUTS: 21.3%
🟢 GEX bias: Neutral to mildly bullish — but sentiment flipped from bullish last week.
🕹 Daily Chart Breakdown (1D)
* Trend: Still in macro uptrend, but short-term candle shows rejection off highs.
* Volume: Spike in sell volume Friday — potential for downside continuation.
* Fib Zones: Current price sitting just above key 0.382 Fib support near $475.
* Reversal Risk: If it fails to hold above $472–$475, strong support only comes near $460.
🧠 Note: Price failed to break 485–490 resistance. Option sellers may defend hard there.
⏱ 1H Intraday Structure & Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
* Trendline Support: MSFT is barely clinging to the lower edge of an ascending channel.
* CHoCH: Multiple Change of Character signals near $480 and $477 indicate instability.
* Liquidity Pool: Purple demand zone around $471–$473 is last stand for bulls.
* Upside Target if Bounce: $483.88–$485 first, then $487–$490 stretch goal.
* Downside Target if Breakdown: $473.5 → $471.5 → $468.7
📉 If price closes below the $475.1–$473.3 zone with volume, look for fast move to $470 → $460.
🎯 Trade Scenarios
🔼 Bullish Case
* Entry: 475.50 with confirmation bounce
* Target: 483.80 → 488
* Stop: 472.40
🔽 Bearish Case
* Entry: Break + retest of 473.30
* Target: 470 → 468 → 460
* Stop: 476.20
🧠 Final Thoughts
MSFT is at a key inflection point. The GEX levels show option sellers are ready to defend $490 hard while support sits around $472. Unless bulls step in with volume early week, this could roll over toward 470–460. Watch for a rejection at $480.25 if tested again.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
AAPL at a Key Breakout Zone! Can Bulls Hold This Level?🔍 Technical Analysis Overview (Daily + 1H)
Apple (AAPL) just printed a powerful bullish candle, reclaiming $201 with strong volume. This move broke above recent consolidation and swept minor liquidity under $196 before reclaiming key levels. From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) lens, we’ve confirmed a bullish CHoCH and BOS (Break of Structure), with price now entering a potential supply zone.
* Trend: Short-term reversal to the upside.
* Volume: Strong breakout volume supports bullish continuation.
* Liquidity Sweep: Price swept lows around $195 and reclaimed — a classic SMC setup.
* Rejection Watch: Overhead supply around $202–$204 is the next test zone.
🧠 Key Levels to Watch
* Resistance Zones:
* $202.5 → GEX3rd CALL Wall
* $204 → Highest positive NetGamma / Call Bias
* $207.5 → GEX2
* Support Zones:
* $197.5 → GEX9
* $192 → HVL + 50% Zone
* $190 → GEX Put Support
* $185 → 3rd Put Wall
⚙️ Options Sentiment (GEX Analysis)
* 📈 GEX Tilt: Call walls dominating from $200 → $210.
* 🧲 Gamma Magnet: $202–$205 could act as a magnet zone short-term.
* ❗ Volatility: IV Rank at 21 and IV% below avg = room to expand.
* 🛡️ Put Protection: Strong GEX support around $190–$192 — buyers stepped in here.
🔄 Intraday Outlook (1H Chart)
Price already filled the green demand zone (~$195–$197), swept key liquidity, and confirmed CHoCH. The strong bullish engulfing candle closed above the descending trendline and is now entering the supply zone marked in red.
* 📌 Possible Scenarios:
* Bullish: If price reclaims and holds above $201.30 → watch for $204–$205 squeeze.
* Bearish: Rejection at $202–$204 and loss of $200 could push us back to $197 retest.
🔁 Scalping Levels
* Breakout Long Trigger: Above $202.5
* 🎯 Target: $204.5 → $207
* ❌ Stop: Below $200.3
* Short-term Reversal Short: From $203.5–204 zone
* 🎯 Target: $200.5 then $198
* ❌ Stop: Above $205
🎯 Swing Trade Plan
* Entry: $200.50–201.00 zone (hold retest)
* Stop: $196.5
* Target:
* TP1 = $204.5
* TP2 = $207.5
* TP3 = $210
🧠 Final Thoughts
AAPL is entering a high-confluence zone both technically and via options data. If bulls hold above $200, there’s a strong chance we tag $204+ soon. But keep in mind — heavy resistance above may cause choppiness. Ideal strategy? Trail stops tight and scale out into GEX walls.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.