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USDPLN Retesting the break line and support zone LONGHello fellow traders, Here is my idea for the pair USD PLN with major support level and retest of the break downtrend line. This is just an idea not a trading advise, always protect your capital, here I have a s/l below 3.76-3.65 when triggered I will manually react, with the T/P as indicated first at 4.2 and second 4.4 being Fob levels of usual reaction, also, the tarrifs are now sorted, dollar has also dipped and with a chance for recovery following the tax relief for businesses settling in USA good chance for the prosperity of the country and their currency all the best, good luck
Long
by lb-counts
Trading GBPUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 25/03/2025We had a good trading session with the Judas Swing Strategy two weeks ago, as the strategy delivered 3 solid setups, 2 on FX:EURUSD and 1 on $GBPUSD. And guess what? All three hit their targets! That’s a massive 6% gain for the week! And with these impressive results we wanted to see how the strategy will perform last week. The strategy did not produce any setups on the currency pair we monitor ( FX:EURUSD , FX:GBPUSD , FX:AUDUSD , OANDA:NZDUSD ) on Monday 24th March and instead of forcing setups like other traders would we sat that day out. Why was this possible? we had backtested the strategy and had enough data to prove that when we stick to this strategy long term we'd be in putting ourselves in a profitable position. On Tuesday, we returned to the trading desk, scouting for setups, when we noticed a potential opportunity on $GBPUSD. The currency pair had swept liquidity at the high of our zone, signaling a possible shift in direction. We then shifted our focus to selling opportunities for the session. Our strategy required waiting for a break of structure to the downside, followed by a retracement into the FVG before executing a trade After waiting for an hour and 15 minutes, we finally got the break of structure to the downside. The only step left was a retrace into the FVG. After some patience, the retrace materialized, meeting all the criteria on our entry checklist. We executed the trade, risking 1% of our account with a target return of 2% Trade Details: Entry: 1.29513 Stop Loss: 1.29611 Take Profit: 1.29311 After entering the trade, price consolidated around our entry point for a while, showing no clear direction. However, we remained unfazed, trusting our well-backtested strategy, which has a 50% win rate. With a 1:2 risk-reward ratio, we know that consistently following our strategy will yield profits in the long run. Since we had risked only what we could afford to lose, the slow price movement didn’t shake our confidence Unfortunately, this trade didn’t go in our favor and ended up hitting our stop loss. This serves as a reminder that not every trade will reach take profit and that’s perfectly okay. Losses are an inevitable part of trading, but what truly matters is maintaining a solid risk management strategy, sticking to a proven system, and thinking long-term. As traders, our edge comes not from winning every trade, but from executing consistently and letting probabilities play out over time
Education
by CleoFinance
Trump shakes up the markets: Strategies and impact on oilBy Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst Former President Donald Trump's recent decision to impose across-the-board tariffs has had a strong impact on global markets. European and Asian stock markets reacted with significant declines, while the oil market experienced notable volatility. Impact on the oil market The announcement of tariffs has affected global demand and economic expectations, generating downward pressure on crude oil prices. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) recorded declines of more than 3%, reflecting uncertainty about economic growth and energy demand. In addition, the unexpected increase in US crude oil stocks has contributed to the bearish sentiment in the sector. Possible scenarios and trading strategies 1. Technical perspective: The drop in oil prices has taken Brent to the $72 level and WTI to $69. If these key levels are lost, we could see an extension of the falls towards $70 and $67 respectively. 2. Hedging strategy: In the face of increased volatility, traders can consider hedging strategies through options or futures contracts, reducing exposure to risk. 3. Opportunities in safe-haven assets: Uncertainty could continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen. The VIX index has shown a rebound, indicating an increase in risk aversion. BRENT Analysis Yesterday the US market closed with a very pronounced bearish candle that de-escalated the price by more than 3 dollars. Despite having a previous sequence of candlesticks with relative volume, this did not prevent the day from closing negative for crude oil. Currently, after an Asian session without volume and the price recovering to the POC zone at $72.98, the European market has opened with a bearish session without excessive volume. A clearly oversold RSI can be seen at 29.55% so there could be a price reversal to the upside above the check point as soon as this downtrend eases. However, there has been a crossing of the 50-average below the 100-average that could indicate a bearish continuation until it meets the 200-average at a price that coincides around the indicated control point. It would not be unusual for the market to neutralize possible bullish attempts after a significant pullback after touching the high zone at least 3 times this week near the highs of $75.17. The central channel that has formed seems to be supporting at the lows of $71.88 so perhaps there could be a drop to this price zone to then gain momentum to the middle zone again. If this price does not hold, it could test the $70.27 area. Conclusion The U.S. tariff increase, bringing the average rate to 22% (its highest level since 1910), has dramatically changed the global economic landscape. Trade retaliation from the EU and China could further intensify volatility. In this context, it is crucial for investors to closely follow market trends and adapt their strategies to this new environment.
ACTIVTRADES:BRENTLong
by ActivTrades
The Day Ahead Economic Data Releases (Market Impact) US: March ISM Services PMI – Key gauge of economic activity in the services sector. A higher-than-expected number could fuel rate hike concerns. February Trade Balance – Trade deficit/surplus could influence USD sentiment. Initial Jobless Claims – A lower figure may strengthen USD as it signals a strong labor market. UK: March Official Reserves Changes – Could impact GBP if there are significant shifts. China: March Caixin Services PMI – A strong reading could boost market sentiment, supporting risk assets. Italy & Eurozone: March Services PMI (Italy) & February PPI (Eurozone) – Weak data could reinforce ECB rate cut expectations, affecting EUR. Canada: February International Merchandise Trade – Affects CAD; trade surplus could strengthen the currency. Switzerland: March CPI – Inflation trends impact SNB policy expectations and CHF. Central Bank Events (Market Moving) US Fed Speakers (Jefferson, Cook) – Any hints on future rate hikes/cuts will drive USD and bond markets. ECB March Meeting Account – Insight into ECB’s rate path; dovish tone may weaken EUR. BoE March DMP Survey – Expectations on inflation and growth, potentially influencing GBP. Geopolitical Event NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting (April 3-4) – Any geopolitical developments could impact risk sentiment, affecting oil prices, defense stocks, and safe-haven assets. Trading Relevance USD: High impact from ISM Services PMI, jobless claims, and Fed speeches. EUR: ECB minutes and Eurozone PPI could drive movement. GBP: BoE survey and UK reserves data in focus. CAD: Trade balance key for CAD direction. CHF: Inflation print may influence SNB rate expectations. Risk Sentiment: Watch China PMI and NATO meeting for broader market impact. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
SPY Update + Learn & Understand the concept below!!Red vs. Teal has been the storyline for this downward momentum and it continues to be as we saw a strong hold from (bullish) red earlier in the week and after rejecting off of teal yesterday, this subsequent gap down that we're currently seeing. If we've built enough bearish liquidity utilizing our green controlled buying, we can see this dump penetrate this 547 support level and continue deeper with a mid-term target in the low $500's. However, if sufficient liquidity hasn't been built, per the laws of S&D, we will need to continue higher for a bit to grab more sellers and soak up more buyers prior to that penetration. Whenever the move seems too obvious in the market, expect it to look that way purposely and for it to be a trap. Get you to sell when it's so obviously bearish - and then the market pushes up as you realize that everyone who sold is the reason why it's going to now push up - big money will force you and the others to buy back your sells at a higher price/loss and that's where big money then swoops in, when things maybe started to look a bit bullish, and pushes the market down by selling back to you all your stop loss buys in one fell swoop! Learn this concept, understand it, and your trading will change forever. That knowledge combined with an understanding of how the algorithms inform the market's liquidity, is why I draw so many lines on my chart. Happy Trading :)
AMEX:SPY
by ReigningTrades
Buy Idea: Habib Bank Limited (HBL)📘 Buy Idea: Habib Bank Limited (HBL) 🔹 Timeframe: Monthly | Strategy: Structure + Type 1.4 + Context Targets ✅ Entry Zone: Buy between 145 – 155 PKR (near the marked "M Type 1.4" level). 📉 Stop Loss (SL): Below 92 PKR ("This low to be held as protected low" – the ITL zone). 🎯 Take-Profit Targets (TP): Target Price (PKR) Gain % Description TP1 240 ~60% First context target TP2 314 ~120% Previous major high TP3 411 ~165% Final potential rocket move 🚀 📌 Context & Narrative: Price broke key structure levels and is forming a bullish base. Multiple STL levels swept – shows smart money accumulation. "M Type 1.4" indicates institutional interest. Targets are based on historical price action and FVG-based projection. 💡 Position Strategy: Buy 50% at current price (150–155) Add 25% on a pullback to 140 Add 25% if price dips toward 130
PSX:HBLLong
by Asif_Brain_Waves
The Power of a Trading System with the Right Mental State 📅 April 3, 2025 Over the years, I’ve learned that discipline in trading isn’t just about having a system — it’s about being in the right state of mind to follow that system. 🧘‍♂️📈 You can have the cleanest rules, the best strategy, and solid backtests … but if your mindset is off, none of it matters. That’s when hesitation creeps in. Or worse — revenge trades, FOMO, or doubt. So I started focusing on one thing: my internal state before and during a trade. 🧭 🔄 How I Manage My Mindset ✅ 1. Pre-Trade Check-In Before I trade, I ask: How do I feel right now? If I’m not grounded, I don’t trade. Simple. I’ve learned the hard way that it’s not worth it. 🔥 2. Anchoring a Disciplined State I recall moments where I executed perfectly — calm, focused, in control. I mentally step into that version of myself before every session. 🧩 3. Staying Congruent During a trade, I pay attention to my behavior. If I notice myself drifting from my plan — I pause, breathe, and realign. 🎯 Why This Works A trading system gives structure. But structure means nothing without mental discipline. By mastering my emotional state, I stopped sabotaging my own edge. No more reacting from fear. No more chasing. Just clean, committed execution. 🧘‍♂️✅ 💬 Final Thought Consistency doesn’t come from the market — it comes from me. So now, before I look at the chart, I check in with myself first. Because when my state is right, my trading flows. ⚖️✨ If this resonates, drop your thoughts below — let’s grow together.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSEducation
by vagada
Gold (XAU/USD) – Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish SetupOverview Gold (XAU/USD) has been in a strong uptrend, making consistent higher highs and higher lows. However, the price action has formed a Rising Wedge Pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal formation. This pattern suggests that the bullish momentum is weakening, and a potential sell-off could follow. The recent breakdown of the wedge structure confirms the bearish bias, and sellers are now in control. Based on price action analysis, we can anticipate further downside movement toward key support levels. 📊 Technical Analysis – Rising Wedge Breakdown 1️⃣ Understanding the Rising Wedge Pattern The Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that occurs when the price consolidates within an upward-sloping channel but shows signs of exhaustion. Here’s how it developed: Higher Highs & Higher Lows: The price consistently formed higher peaks and troughs, indicating an uptrend. Declining Bullish Momentum: As the wedge progressed, price action became increasingly squeezed, showing reduced bullish strength. Breakout Confirmation: Once the lower trendline of the wedge was breached, it confirmed that buyers were losing control and that sellers had stepped in. 2️⃣ Key Levels & Market Structure 🔵 Resistance Level: The upper boundary of the wedge around $3,150 - $3,163 acted as a supply zone, where sellers pushed prices lower. 🟠 Support Level: The lower boundary of the wedge, around $3,100 - $3,120, initially provided demand but eventually failed to hold. 🔻 Breakdown Confirmation: The price broke below the wedge, which is a strong bearish signal. 🎯 Trade Setup & Strategy 3️⃣ Bearish Trading Plan Given the breakdown of the wedge pattern, the setup favors a short (sell) trade. Here’s how to approach it: 📉 Sell Entry: The ideal short position is initiated after a confirmed break of the wedge’s support level. 📍 Stop Loss (SL): A tight stop-loss is placed above the previous resistance at $3,163.67, ensuring risk is controlled if the trade goes against the bias. 🎯 Take Profit (TP) Targets: TP 1: $3,080.66 – First major support level, where buyers might step in temporarily. TP 2: $3,057.33 – Extended downside target, offering a greater risk-to-reward ratio. 4️⃣ Additional Price Expectations Retest of the Wedge Breakdown: The price may pull back to the broken wedge support before continuing downward. Stronger Bearish Momentum: If selling pressure remains strong, price could fall even lower, breaking TP 2. Invalidation Level: If price climbs above $3,163, the wedge breakdown would be invalidated, signaling that bulls have regained control. 📌 Conclusion & Market Sentiment 🔹 Rising Wedge Breakdown Signals Further Downside – The market structure suggests that sellers are gaining control. 🔹 Sell Setup with Risk-Managed Approach – With a defined stop-loss and two profit targets, this trade offers a favorable risk-to-reward setup. 🔹 Gold’s Short-Term Bearish Outlook – The chart confirms a potential correction, and price may drop towards $3,080 and $3,057 if the bearish momentum continues. 📊 Final Thought: This is a high-probability short trade based on classic technical analysis. Traders should monitor for confirmation retests and manage risk accordingly. ✅ Would you like any refinements or additional insights? 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed higher on the daily chart. However, following the announcement of mutual tariffs after the previous session’s close, the index experienced a significant gap-down. On the daily chart, the MACD has crossed below the signal line, generating a sell signal, though confirmation is still pending. If today's session closes with a bearish candle, we must monitor whether this leads to a third wave of selling, signaling further downside. Due to the gap-down, the price is now significantly distanced from the 3-day and 5-day moving averages (MAs), making it crucial to observe whether the price rebounds intraday or continues to decline further. With the first support level at 19,000 now breached, the next key support is around 18,500. When considering buy positions, it is essential to manage stop-loss risk carefully. On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has appeared but is not yet confirmed. If confirmed, it could trigger a third wave of selling pressure, potentially leading to further declines. Given the increased market volatility, a cautious approach is recommended—reducing leverage and only trading at key price levels to minimize potential losses. Crude Oil Crude oil closed higher while maintaining a range-bound movement around $72. On the daily chart, the MACD has moved above the signal line and the zero line, establishing a bullish trend. However, following the mutual tariff announcement, the price gapped down, dropping below $70. The strongest support zone lies around $68, making it crucial to observe whether the MACD adjusts and aligns with the signal line before rebounding from this support level to resume the bullish trend. On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has appeared, but with multiple support levels nearby and both MACD and the signal line still above the zero line, the market is likely to attempt rebounds. A buy-the-dip approach remains favorable, but caution is necessary given today’s OPEC meeting, which could lead to increased volatility. Gold Gold closed higher, finding support at the 5-day MA. Following the mutual tariff announcement, the price initially gapped up to around 3,200, before pulling back. As previously mentioned, the upward target for this wave is around 3,216, with strong buying momentum continuing. On the daily chart, gold is trading between the 5-day MA and the upper Bollinger Band, maintaining a one-way bullish structure. A bullish strategy remains favorable unless the daily close falls below the 10-day MA. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD remains above the zero line and previously attempted to break above the signal line but has since pulled back. Since buying momentum is still present, if the price finds support at a key supply zone, another leg higher could occur, potentially triggering a golden cross in the MACD and leading to a third wave of buying pressure. Short positions should be approached with caution, and given the increased market volatility, risk management is crucial. Whether buying or selling, stop-loss discipline is essential to manage potential risks. Market volatility has surged since the pre-market session due to Trump’s mutual tariff policies. Volatility is both an opportunity and a risk for traders. Do not let greed lead to losses in a market that doesn’t match your trading style. Adjust position sizes accordingly and only trade within your comfort zone. The market is always open. Do not focus solely on today—take a steady and stable approach to trading. Wishing you a successful trading day! If you like my analysis, please follow me and give it a boost! For additional strategies for today, check out my profile. Thank you!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
Hilarious algo failImagine getting one hour to think about what to do after the Trump speech, and coming up with the idea to sell your only winner (gold futures) at market price immediately after the one hour break, lol. Probably sold it to buy more index futures, lol, morons. Apparent that is what at least one of the algos did. It looks like all of the algos are desperate for cash right now because gold futures are not tracking spot price. (I posted a plot) If you bought GLD like I did, look at spot pricing XAU/USD tomorrow, not futures GC1!. We're up over 1% now.
COMEX:GC1!
by hungry_hippo
Gold Futures (GC1) not tracking spot priceSpot price for gold is up close to 1%, but futures (red line) is up only half of that. Looks like the algos are desperate for cash and selling futures for less premium than usual. I think we've all done it a time or two, especially when we were starting out trading, where we sold our winners to cover the margin call for the loser stocks only to watch the winner stock go up more and loser stocks tank. Well, that's what the algos are doing tonight, selling gold and pumping US index futures. As a result, June gold futures isn't gaining any traction, it appears to be forming a huge pennant. The investment firms that run the algos must have a shitload of gold futures. The difference in spot price and Jun gold futures, that's how desperate the algos are, they're selling at below market value. Anyways, GLD ETF carries actual physical gold, so I assume pricing will track spot price, not futures.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by hungry_hippo