USOILUSOIL has created a reversal pattern ,Head and Shoulder, with bullish divergence. Currently the price is supporting a short inclining trendline and seems like the commodity is all set for bullish attempt.
Beyondtechnicalanalysis
GBPAUDGBPAUD is been in enormous bullish trajectory. Currently the pair trading at weekly high level and also created bearish divergence , will these confluences make the pair some retracement?
EURUSDEURUSD has broke through important support zone and one of the inclining trendline. and currently testing the broken support as a resistance around 1.0900 region. Will the pair hold bearish trend and move even lower?
Unraveling Efficient Market HypothesisMany believe that a well-defined, simple, and robust trading strategy can help a trader acquire gains that outperform the market or purchase undervalued stocks in hopes of outsized returns upon rebound, but is this the case? Students of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) would argue that fundamental and technical analysis are pointless approaches to the market that are merely a mirage of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
EMH is a cornerstone of modern financial theory, which posits that markets are perfectly efficient and always reflect all available information. The influence of EMH is pervasive, guiding investment strategy and shaping financial regulation. There is growing skepticism among academics and traders about the accuracy and efficacy of EMH in modern markets. EMH is a dense topic, but we will do our best to dive into what EMH is, its strengths, and its limitations in modern times.
Understanding EMH
To understand what EMH is, we need to understand the forms of EMH, of which there are three levels of efficiency: weak, semi-strong, and strong. The weak form of EMH suggests that current prices reflect all past trading information, including past prices. Thus rendering fundamental analysis and technical analysis moot and impossible to beat the market. Semi-strong EMH argues that the current price accounts for all public data and does not include private data. Again, fundamental and technical analysis will not be fruitful in helping traders outpace market returns. The strong form of EMH posits that prices reflect all available information, including insider information.
In Support Of and Against EMH
Supporters of EMH argue that markets are efficient because of the excess number of rational investors, and the competition among them (bulls vs. bears) ensures that prices are always accurate. The more market participants there are, the more efficient a market becomes as it becomes increasingly competitive and more price information becomes available. The competitive nature and increased liquidity of the market shows that it is difficult, at best, to consistently outperform the markets.
Opponents of EMH argue that human biases and irrational behavior can lead to market inefficiencies. Investors often make irrational decisions based on emotions and cognitive biases. This is tough to argue, given the countless articles and books on market psychology. Market anomalies, such as the value and momentum effects, also suggest that markets are not perfectly efficient. Historical market events, such as the 2008 financial crisis or other perceived “bubbles,” further question the assumptions of EMH.
Practical Implications and Real-World Observations
Despite EMH, some investors have consistently outperformed the market; famously among them is Warren Buffet. Some hedge funds have also been successful in beating market benchmarks. One could argue that though a market is efficient, there are individuals who are statistical anomalies that have outperformed the market under EMH theory.
Market inefficiencies and opportunities exist in specific asset classes or regions, such as emerging markets or distressed debt-stricken economies, but an easily observable form of market inefficiency is arbitrage trading. Wherein traders buy and sell to exploit minute price discrepancies of assets between exchanges.
Alternative Approaches
It is hard to objectively believe that one can not formulate a system that helps a trader make returns that outpace the market. Fundamental analysis and technical analysis are two approaches to investing that challenge the assumptions of EMH. Fundamental analysis involves examining company-specific information and valuations to find undervalued stocks which is entirely conflicting with EMH theory. While technical analysis involves using price patterns and indicators for market timing in hopes of profits in your chosen trade direction.
The Future of Market Efficiency
The rise of technology, such as high-frequency trading, trading algorithms, and artificial intelligence, is changing the landscape of financial markets. Some argue that technology is making markets more efficient; others would suggest that it is introducing new sources of market inefficiencies. Will the definitive parameters of what EMH need to be adjusted as the markets evolve? Only time and people with significantly larger brains than I will tell.
Conclusion
EMH remains a principal concept in modern finance, but not without limitations and challenges. It is paramount for traders to understand what EMH is, even if they rely on different analysis theories to make their own trading decisions. Investors should adopt a flexible and adaptive approach to investing, recognizing that markets are not always perfectly efficient and that opportunities for outperformance exist. Ultimately, we believe the key to successful investing is a combination of sound strategy, disciplined execution, and a willingness to learn and adapt.
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GBPJPYGBPJPY along with all xxxjpy pair is been on huge bullish trend. But currently GBPJPY has created mature bearish divergence. Will the bearish divergence play its role and divert the bullish trajectory to some corrective structure.
📊 7 Steps To Plan Your TradingHere are 7 steps to consider before entering a trade. Pick one or multiple options for each step to incorporate into your plan.
🔷 Timeframe: This step involves determining the desired timeframe for the trade, which can vary from day trading on shorter timeframes (m15 to h1), swing trading on intermediate timeframes (h4 to d1), or position trading on longer timeframes (d1 to w1). Choosing the appropriate timeframe helps establish the trade duration and the level of monitoring required.
🔷 Risk Management: This step focuses on determining the level of risk to allocate to each trade. It is recommended to risk a certain percentage of capital per trade, typically ranging from 1% to 3%. This ensures that losses are limited and helps maintain consistent risk across trades.
🔷 Conditions: Identifying market conditions is crucial for trade planning. Traders need to assess whether the market is ranging (moving within a defined price range) or trending (showing a clear upward or downward direction). Understanding the prevailing market conditions helps in selecting appropriate trading strategies and indicators.
🔷 Markets: This step involves selecting the specific financial markets or instruments in which to trade. Traders can choose from a wide range of options, such as equities (stocks), options, bonds, futures or Crypto. The choice depends on individual preferences, market knowledge, and the availability of suitable trading opportunities.
🔷 Entries: Determining entry points is essential for initiating a trade. This step involves selecting entry strategies based on the identified market conditions. Common entry methods include taking advantage of pullbacks (temporary price retracements within a trend), breakouts (entering when price surpasses a key level), or trading news events that can cause significant price movements.
🔷 Stops: Placing stop-loss orders is crucial for managing risk and protecting capital. Traders need to determine stop levels that are strategically placed away from market structures, such as support and resistance levels. This helps minimize the chances of premature stop-outs due to normal market fluctuations while still ensuring that losses are controlled.
🔷 Targets: Setting profit targets is essential for determining when to exit a trade. Traders can choose between fixed targets, where a predetermined price level is identified to take profits, or trailing stops, where the stop-loss order is adjusted as the trade moves in the trader's favor. Both approaches aim to capture gains and lock in profits while allowing the trade to run if the market continues to move favorably.
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GBPAUDGBPAUD has broken the uptrend and seems like it successfully retested the broken structure to confirm bearish trend.
EURJPYEURJPY is been on huge bullish run and now is due for some deep correction. As the pair has created bearish divergence in 4H which is signaling for some deeper correction.
The Art of PatienceAmong the dozens of qualities and attributes, experts say traders need, patience is one of the most important qualities a trader can possess. It is a virtue often overlooked in the fast-paced world of trading, where new traders are lured into the trap of the get-rich-quick ideology. The ability to wait for the right trades can be the difference between success and failure, but how can we grow our patience?
In this article, we will dive into the art of patience. We will discuss why patience is important and methods to cultivate patience.
Why Patience is Important in Trading
In this day and age, patience is a difficult thing to master. As a society, we almost want things before we know we want them. That makes waiting for nearly anything a monumental burden for most. We are so impatient that we are willing to pay money to remove things that require patience. Ads on video or music streaming apps or expedited package delivery are great examples. However, this does not mean we cannot learn and become disciplined in the art of patience.
Patience allows traders to take a long-term view of the market. That market can be a volatile and unpredictable environment, and the temptation to blindly leap into a trade can be immense if we cannot maintain discipline and patience. Emotional or impulsive trades often lead to losses.
Patience allows traders to wait for ideal opportunities that are thoroughly analyzed, utilizing a robust yet simple trading system. If we as traders take the time to be patient and genuinely analyze potential opportunities we can often avoid trades that are likely to be unprofitable.
How to Cultivate Patience
Patience is not a natural trait for everyone, but it can be cultivated through practice. Here are some tips for building your patience:
Set realistic goals: Patience really requires a long-term perspective. Traders should set realistic goals for their trading strategy and focus on achieving them over time, rather than trying to get rich quick. The old adage of “Rome wasn’t built in a day” couldn’t be more pertinent. Great things take time to develop, but they are often worthwhile.
If you miss, you miss: Something that is difficult for any trader is missing an opportunity. Maybe you were pulled away or just generally distracted, and an opportunity passed by you. It is unwise to hop on the FOMO train in the hope that there is still room up or down for a trade to be profitable. It is far better to take a step back and analyze the market and find new entries or opportunities that can be verified by your system. Missed opportunities are also a great learning experience to build yourself up rather than tear yourself down.
Avoid distractions: Ohhhh look a squirrel! Anyways, the markets can be overwhelming, and it can be easy to get distracted. Examples of distractions would include nonconsequential/irrelevant news, misleading social media posts or groups, and personal environmental factors. Avoid distractions and focus on your trading plan; your future self will be thankful.
Practice mindfulness: Many mistakenly think mindfulness is to make your mind a blank canvas, devoid of thought, and disregarding everything external. Mindfulness is the practice of being present in the current moment, recognizing when your mind wanders, and letting it go as you bring your focus back. View your mind as a muscle that needs to be trained, not entirely dissimilar to an athlete training their body. Mindfulness can help you stay focused and avoid impulsive decisions as you bring yourself to the present moment.
Conclusion
The funny thing about patience is that it takes time to develop. Patience is a foundational pillar for a trader's market psychology, but it is one of the hardest to build up. It allows traders to wait for the right opportunities, avoid emotional decision-making, and take a long-term view of the markets. By cultivating patience and applying it to your trading strategy, you can increase your chances of success.
EURUSDEURUSD recently was in strong bullish momentum. But currently it seems like a bullish momentum is fading. A deep correction is also due after such strong impulsive move.
ARBUSDTARBUSDT has formed bullish divergence and also given the breakout of falling trendline. A breakout of 1.033 level will be a good buying option.
ASTRUSDTASTRUSDT is trading in long term bearish trend. Currently the price is retracing a bit but just about to face a long term daily declining trendline. Will these confluences push the price to lower side again?
Nostradamus 101: XRP EUR 3 months aheadDivide in two. Do your own research.
The bid to destroy the middle class is nigh.
Expect crypto to be stale until the end of the 2020s.
Bullish on $CSE:BTC Blue Sky Digital Symbol: CSE:BTC
Blue sky is a prime example of a dormant stock about to bounce!
Note the illustrated section where it notes crossing the MACD and I believe an upward trend to 0.06+ in near future, possibly the next two weeks!
BTC = Buy in my opinion
Note: This is not financial advice and I am not a financial advisor! Do your own research!
Problems You Face As A TraderIn the fast-paced world of Forex trading, you're constantly searching for a winning strategy that aligns with your trading style. It can be overwhelming, with multiple strategies leaving you frustrated and lacking the guidance needed to navigate the dynamic market.
Let's talk about the problems you may face on your journey and if you are facing them comment them below and maybe I can encourage you through it.
1️⃣ Trend Identification:
Without learning how to spot profitable trends and align yourself with the prevailing market direction, you may face the following challenges:
Missed Opportunities
You might miss out on potential profitable trades by failing to identify trends and enter at the right time.
Trading Against the Trend
When you trade against the prevailing trend, you increase the risk of entering losing trades, as the market momentum works against your position.
Uncertainty in Trade Direction: Without trend identification, you may struggle to determine the overall direction of the market, leading to confusion and indecisiveness in your trading decisions.
2️⃣ Market Structure Estimation Zones:
If you neglect to pinpoint critical entries through market structure (estimation zones), you may encounter the following issues:
Inaccurate Trade Entries and Exits
Without identifying your entry point, you may enter or exit trades at suboptimal price points, reducing your profitability.
Increased Risk
Failing to recognize key market structure price points increases the risk of placing trades in areas where price reversals or consolidations are likely to occur.
Lack of Confidence in Trade Decisions
Without a clear understanding of market structure, you may lack the confidence needed to make informed trade decisions, leading to hesitation and missed opportunities.
3️⃣ Efficient Execution in Under 1 Minute:
If you are unable to execute trades swiftly and efficiently with predefined targets, stop-loss levels, and positions, you may face the following challenges:
Missed Entries
Delayed trade execution can cause you to miss optimal entry points, resulting in reduced profit potential.
Emotional Decision-Making
Slow execution may lead to emotional decision-making, as you may be influenced by short-term market fluctuations rather than sticking to your predetermined strategy.
Increased Exposure to Market Risks
Procrastination in trade execution increases your exposure to market risks, such as sudden price reversals or volatility, potentially resulting in higher losses.
4️⃣ Emotion-Free Trading with Pending Orders:
Without incorporating pending orders to trade unemotionally and discipline yourself, you may encounter the following problems:
Impulsive Trading
Making decisions based on emotions and immediate market movements can lead to impulsive trades that deviate from your overall strategy.
Inconsistent Trade Execution
Emotion-driven trading decisions can result in inconsistent trade execution, causing variations in risk management and profit potential.
Lack of Trading Discipline: Without the use of pending orders, you may struggle to adhere to your predefined trading plan, increasing the likelihood of undisciplined and impulsive behavior.
5️⃣ Customization for Different Trading Styles:
If you neglect to tailor the trading strategy to your preferred trading style, you may experience the following challenges:
Ineffective Trading Approaches
Using a strategy that does not align with your preferred style may result in suboptimal trading decisions and reduced profitability.
Lack of Comfort and Confidence
If you cannot customize your strategy to match your preferred style, you may feel uncomfortable and lack confidence in executing trades, leading to indecisiveness and missed opportunities.
Inconsistent Results
Without adapting the strategy to your trading style, you may struggle to achieve consistent results, as the approach may not cater to your strengths and preferences.
6️⃣ Support for Struggling Traders and Beginners:
As a struggling trader or beginner, without personalized coaching and guidance to nurture your trading skills, you may encounter the following difficulties:
Inconsistent Performance:
Without proper guidance, you may find it challenging to achieve consistent performance, leading to frustration and a lack of progress.
Lack of Confidence
Without support, you might struggle with self-doubt and a lack of confidence in your abilities, hindering your growth and development as a trader.
Difficulty in Identifying Mistakes
You may have difficulty identifying your mistakes and finding effective solutions without the guidance and feedback provided through personalized coaching.
By focusing on trend identification, market structure estimation zones, efficient execution, emotion-free trading, and customization for your specific trading style, TMP(trend, market structure, and pending orders) empowers you to trade better so you can overcome some of the problems listed above.
Traders, if you liked this idea, need encouragement, or liked my take on problems you may face as a trader, write it in the comments and like this post.
Bitcoin Dominance BTC.D. Bitcoin will outperform?Bitcoin Dominance trying to break a key level ~49%. If price stays on top of it, the rectangles target is around 58-60%.
Bitcoin will outperform most of the alts at that point, and alts bleed against BTC.
SEC has labeld some alts as securities so Bitcoin outperforming makes sense. For now.
I'm interested to see how this weekly candle closes. Does it close above 49%?
I also made an analysis from a micro-cap project which I think can 20-100x in few years.
Check it here
Radix XRD/BTCThe only crypto project which I did accumulate during bear market. In time I think Radix has a good change to be bigger than Polkadot and Cardano. I'd suggest you do your own research about them.
31st of july Radix Public Network upgrade from Olympia to Babylon will occur and ready build DEFI apps can move from "tech mode" to the main net, among other things.
Noticeable about the weekly chart.
25EMA (yellow ema) which worked as resistance 5 times was flipped, tested and showed some support. 70/30 I'd guess this would hold. Time will tell
Let's analyse few things from daily timeframe
DOTUSDTDOTUSDT was trading in range from sometime , and recently broke through the range and now testing the broken level. It also facing the pressure from declining trendline.
Will it head even lower ?
Overcoming Regret: How To Move Forward and SucceedRegret is a common emotion experienced by traders when they miss out on opportunities or a trade they took doesn't go the way they believed it would. It is a feeling of disappointment or dissatisfaction with a decision that has been made or not made. In trading, the fear of missing out (FOMO) can often lead to irrational decision-making, which leads to missed opportunities or poorly timed entries. Today we will explore the psychology of regret in trading and provide tips for dealing with missed opportunities.
The psychology of regret:
Regret is a complex emotion that can be triggered by many factors when trading. In trading, regret is frequently stirred up by missed opportunities. When an opportunity slips past a trader, they may experience disappointment, frustration, and anger. These emotions can lead to irrational decision-making, often resulting in further missed opportunities or poorly executed trades.
One of the reasons why traders experience regret is due to the phenomenon of counterfactual thinking. Counterfactual thinking is the process of imagining alternative outcomes to past events. When traders miss out on an opportunity, they may engage in counterfactual thinking by imagining what could have been if they had made a different decision. This can lead to feelings of regret and disappointment.
Another reason why traders experience regret is due to cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance is the discomfort that arises when one feels a conflict between beliefs and actions. When traders miss out on an opportunity, they may experience cognitive dissonance because their faith in what they see in the market may conflict with their actions.
How do we deal with missed opportunities?
Dealing with missed opportunities is a principal aspect of trading psychology and maintaining a positive mindset. Your trading strategy and plan may have a strong foundation, but our own mind is often the biggest obstacle we face in trading. Here are some tips for dealing with missed opportunities.
Accept that missed opportunities are a part of trading:
Missed opportunities are a part of trading. No trader can catch every opportunity that arises in the market. Accepting this fact can help traders cope with the disappointment and frustration that can manifest when opportunities are missed. If we do not recognize this we may start to make brash decisions, which can lead to over-trading. Overtrading can lead to losses that may impact your trading mindset, more negatively than simply missing an opportunity.
Learn from missed opportunities:
Missed opportunities can be a valuable learning experience for traders. By analyzing the reasons why an opportunity was missed, traders can learn from their mistakes and improve their decision-making in the future. However, it is important to be careful with this, one or two missed opportunities do not mean you need to question your entire strategy. It is important to take a step back and objectively look at what happened and analyze if there were possible opportunities for improvement.
Focus on the present moment:
Focusing on the present moment can help traders avoid counterfactual thinking. Do not get sucked into making FOMO decisions and entering trades at poorly executed times. Instead of dwelling on missed opportunities, traders should focus on the current market conditions. As traders, we need to be forward-looking to explore new opportunities that can be confirmed by a robust yet simple trading system.
Talk it out with other traders or a trading community:
Talking to other traders or a trading community can help traders deal with missed opportunities and regret. Other traders can provide support, advice, and a fresh perspective on the given situation. You might be surprised to find out you are not alone in how you feel about missed opportunities. A trading community can also offer a sense of belonging and understanding, which can be helpful in managing other difficult emotions when trading.
Conclusion
Regret is a complex emotion that can be triggered by a variety of factors when trading, and if you have felt it, you are definitely not alone. Dealing with missed opportunities is a critical part of trading psychology as it happens to everyone at every skill level. By accepting that missed opportunities are a part of trading, learning from missed opportunities, focusing on the present moment, and talking to others, traders can cope with the disappointment and frustration that comes with missed opportunities and improve their decision-making in the future.
ZECUSDTZECUSDT broke through strong support and is under sell pressure. Currently the instrument is consolidating and seems like it will retest the broken level around $31 region, which is also the 3rd pivot for declining trendline.
DxyDXY
Hey Traders, in today’s trading session I'm are monitoring DXY for a selling opportunity around 103.90 zone, once we will receive any bearish confirmation the trade will be executed...
USDCHFUSDCHF
Hey Traders, in today’s trading session I'm are monitoring USDCHF for a selling opportunity around 0.90702 zone, once we will receive any bearish confirmation the trade will be executed...
USDCADUSDCAD is trading in strong bullish momentum and currently trading at strong support zone and also getting support from inclining trendline.
Will it continue its bullish trajectory from multiple support zones?
