Bias
NZDUSD shortWaiting for this rising wedge brakedown, retest of the structure and weekly level.
Stops have been taken out which is visible on Daily (blue line).
MACD divergence present over 3 peaks.( 3 drive pattern )
At least short term BIAS is bearish.
Watching price action to see how it develops, waiting for the brakedown.
If I dont see what I want to see then NO trade.
XAUUSD 24.06.2019WEEKLY:
- possible retest of the trendline before further downside
- pair bounce on trendline twice (yellow sphere), thereafter, pair broke out (pink sphere).
- there could be a possible short opportunity if pair rejects the ascending trendline
- pair could spike to the 100% fib before continuing its downward mvnt
INVALID IF:
- weekly closure above the trendline
NB:
- watch DXY + SILVER for correlation.
- wait for upward momentum to decrease, therefore look for multiple rejections on the daily/ 4H time-frame before shorting
- wait for clear rejection on daily + 4H time frame before entering trade
- watch fundamental release prior to entering
XAGUSD 24.06.2019WEEKLY:
- rejected the descending trendline (3rd rejection) possible mvnt to the downside.
- anticipating 1-2 more rejections of the 61.8% fib level + trendline before shorting.
- possible spike to the 71%/ 78% fib level before pushing further down
DAILY:
TRADE = INVALID IF:
- daily closure above 61.8% + trendline
GOLD My Old Buddy 4H XAUSUD Short Term Bias Down IdeaIdea - Gold 4h Short term bias down, following blue line trend wedge short.
Please share, comment or add your opinion. Thank you, Nath
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Psych Hack #0007 - decision-making - it's what we do. Everybody - I mean everybody - who is actively trading has to make decisions. Entry points, exit points, trailing stops, stop-losses and so on - they all involve decisions. But what affects the integrity of our decision-making ? Some say we don't need to make decisions, once we follow a mechanical trading plan. I disagree 100%. If everybody could follow a mechanical trading plan and be millionaires it would have happened already - it ain't happening! End of.
I say that our decisions are made in our heads - our brains, our minds. I say that I (we) need to know about the pitfalls in decision-making - pitfalls that may affect our minds.
I'm sharing some things I've learned with others. These may not be of relevance to everybody. However, as the hard evidence shows that between 75 and 90% of all traders lose money consistently, I think it should be of relevance to a majority.
Declaration : None of this is advice - even if so construed. Opinions on the two charts shown are not be relied upon. Your losses are entirely your own.
GBPNZD - Sun March 17This is a much longer term outlook on GBPNZD. As you can see on a DAILY time frame, price has been respecting the channel but in the past few weeks has been trying to breakout to the downside.
Looking at things from a technical perspective, I see the downside pressure winning this tug of war and taking price to the 1.7500 region.
Although, when you factor in the current state of affairs surrounding the Pound and Brexit... anything could happen.
This is strictly my opinion and I am not qualified to give financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Happy trading :)
~TraderTrev
Possible GBP/JPY Short Position!!SMP TRADING
SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Chart time frame - H4
Timeframe - 1-2 days
Actions on -
A – Activating Event
Market will meet resistance in zone @144.66 - .... and fall to the @141.200. In order to enter, the pair MUST be in line with my Entry Procedure....
B – Beliefs
Market move towards the first Target 1 level @ 141.400
FX:GBPJPY
Trade Management
Entered @ Sign up for mentoring
Stop Loss @ Sign up for mentoring
Target 1 @ 141.200
Target 2 @ ....
Risk/Reward @ 4.1
Happy trading :)
Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !!
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This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
SRT, Force Trends18th Feb - (p=227,355/l=282,215)
This pair is running a circus with tension on reversing. We have formed trendlines channels and I expect yet another to be formed inorder for a new uptrend to officially emerg. Previous trend continuation price action has been a failure however if we break low we are going to have a good downtrend.
USDCAD Bilateral BiasThis pair is moving in the series of Higher highs and High Lows Consequently and we can see on our chart that it has bounced off trendline 5th time which indicates that it is in Highly Strong Bullish Trend! Currently, it’s Hard to predict whether it’s Going Bear or Bull, We will wait for price Confirmation. It could Also Go and break Trendline since USOIL has fallen badly to 50 Price and Could Retrace Back up till 60 which indicates CAD to go strong with it only if it gonna respect the Co-relation.
Otherwise, If Dollar Going to keep the bullish momentum then we will take the Long trade after the confirmation above 1.32500.
Bitcoin , biased journalism ,C.C.N. BitscamLast night, a journalist from C.C.N., while Bitcoin was still in freefall, urged and ADVISED people to buy in. Explaining that at around 4600 (and change, who can keep track - unless it's your JOB) Bitcoin had found it's bottom. The piece was marked as an Op-Ed , a disclaimer indicating that he is not a financial advisor - this was not to be construed as advice , and everything else that is verse and chorus in the "please don't sue or prosecute me" song. "Buy the dip."
If you are still in H.O.D.L. , and bought the "dip," depending upon what amount you bought you have that much less wealth. If you set a stop loss, you have that much less wealth. Fool me again??
Once upon a time Journalism was an entirely different entity. Conducted with respect , integrity and FACTS. Last nights article brought me too a surety that is making my blood boil. I didn't buy the dip. I'm not drinking the Kool- Aid. I had to quit. WHY?
We who make up the community of Tech enthusiasts and /or investors have been done a GREAT INJUSTICE for about a year now , perhaps longer. It's like Bernie Madoff squared.
If an untrained, self taught observer like myself can see that the traditional weights and measures do not and can not apply to crypto , Journalists working under aid in this very esoteric sector most certainly should have come to the same conclusion before costing people their hard earned money day after day with their arbitrary analysis and predictions. My blood is boiling , why?
The people of this world have been subject to the biggest scam , ponzi pump and dump scheme in the history of man!!! Biased journalism , naked price manipulation that can be SEEN if you watch an order book , perpetuation of f.o.m.o. , fomenting gambling addiction , lies about price direction , support levels, resistance points. Constant prodding with the baseless claims of imminent breakouts. The sickest part of this is that people are behind what is happening and they have grown very , very wealthy. Bernie Madoff wealthy.
Not everyone is guilty , and I am quite sure that journalists who work for crypto new companies are under pressure to sell these stories. After all , an entity devoted to crypto news exclusively wouldn't thrive if they told the real truth. I suspect bribery in one or more forms , job pressure , and a herd mentality that tends to cause these writers to agree with each other. They probably just re-word another article half the time.
I DO believe that a digital currency will thrive based upon it's technological merits and use cases, but that is a product of research and I am not going to do this community the disservice of mentioning which one.
Nobody has been talking about the human toll. Disclaimers aside , there are a lot of dreamers in the world. During the Great depression , or as it ensued , people became so distraught that they were jumping from buildings often enough for it to be etched into human history. The stock market eventually put protections in place so those events would be less likely. THERE ARE NO PROTECTIONS IN THE CRYPTO MARKET.
There are people so deep into this downward spiral they cannot make themselves cut their losses. Insanity is defined by repeating the same cause and effect actions again and again , expecting a different result. There is a human toll , taken by greedy fat cats and scam artists who have no qualms about killing peoples dreams , savings , retirement resources etc.
I'm done. No more writing. I will not inadvertently cause any harm to this community.
Mining for nothing, hash wars , halving etc. - there are digital transaction networks and their tokens that don't require mining, but like I did , you'll need to research that if you don't already know , and while that may be an advantage , I'm only sure about the fact that I am very , very unsure.
Caveat Emptor.
Best of luck and fortune to all of you.
EURJPY Analysis.Personally, if it wasn't for the problems with Italy causing investors to stay clear of the euro at the time being - I would be investing in the common currency. The Asian currency is offering very little to investors and I think we will be seeing a sell of the Yen up until the year finish.
Price is currently at a key pivotal zone which we have highlighted to dictate our bias and where/when to enter in positions.
We will be keeping this post updated and also posting trades if the opportunity appears. We will be staying patient and waiting like a sniper.
AUDUSD SHORT UPDATEUpdate from my SHORT AUDUSD call I wrote posted here , currently up +340 pips across the two lots as price is nearing the target area of the 3 Drives Pattern I drew in here . On March 14th I absolutely nailed the coming decline . Do yourself a favor and check out that post.
Confluence : Relevant confluence around target area include the 78.6% retracement, the 100% extension, and the 0.764 round number.
Sentiment and Trend Strength : Retail trader sentiment shows moderate LONG bias, buying into the decline in anticipation of a trend reversal. However, most technical indicators support further decline as the current BEARISH trend continues to strengthen.
Outlook : SHORT with 1st target between 0.7640 and 0.7615
The markets are there to make you feel stupid or brilliantMany a trader will have made their best analysis based on information at the time and then taken an entry position, only to find that the market does something unexpected. Price may move violently in the wrong direction i.e. not the favoured direction and comes close to a stop loss or actually stopping out the position for a loss. Now with hindsight a trader feels or thinks, " How stupid - I should have seen it coming. I shouldn't have done that. "
This happens enough times to new traders. Seasoned traders live with it and have less such self-talk. I think it's important to acknowledge those feelings. These are partly thinking processes and emotional processes. New traders often feel demoralised after 10 or so failures in a row. " Am I doing something wrong? " - they may think. This is a reasonable question. It could be that something is wrong. However, nothing may be found wrong with one's methodology or application of one's personal rules - after a careful reassessment. It's good to check.
The BTCUSD chart shows what is some sort of 'head and shoulders' pattern. It's not the best picture of it in the world but something is there. Wherever one takes a position in BTCUSD, it could be wrong. Why? The markets respect no one person.
A proportion of traders will have taken a position in this and made some real profits. They will punch the air and with joy go, " YESSSS!! " From my long experience I've learned that 'feelings' of being right or wrong, actually bends the mind a trader. I'm speaking for myself quite clearly. Others may have similar experience. A feeling of being good after a string of wins, often creates a subconscious sense of confidence. Imperceptibly this can creep into future trades and then one realises some major losses.
My own strategy is to try at best to reduce trading frequency and exert even greater diligence in entering trades after a series of wins. I aim to expect the unexpected. It's always a tad difficult when I get stopped out for a loss. But I repeat to myself that the stoploss is there to protect against the 'unexpected' - so it's not actually unexpected. It is a limit. It is the expected limit of price moving not in a favoured direction.
There is no single path to 'a promised land' in trading. Traders can adopt different methods, different rules, and be consistently profitable. The largest obstacle which is difficult to train out a trader, is their own personal psychology . By this I mean things like attention to detail, biases, emotions, discipline etc. So in many ways feeling stupid or brilliant can affect our future decision-making in imperceptible ways. Traders can lose discipline after losses or big gains. Mark Douglas spoke about these sorts of things.
The BTCUSD chart is not intended to attract thoughts on whether to go long or go short. I'm not really interested in whether the H&S is there at all or correctly drawn. I'm taking it beyond that. What happens next to traders who come out of this period - some bruised, some overjoyed? Trading is not about winning one trade or a small handful. It's about the long road ahead.
I'm delighted if others can share their experiences.
Practical Exercise - Understanding Fractal NatureMarket develops in FRACTALS.
Understanding how each timeframe is developing is important in timing our trade entries. When we decide to take any trade, we now have a better understanding and expectation of our trades.
Practical Exercise
1) Find an example where the two timeframes' bias are aligned.
2) Find another example where the two timeframes' bias are NOT aligned.
3) Keep trade of how these two examples develop.
AUD / USD Bullish My bias for aud/usd is bullish.
I was shorting this pair 2 times this week with small positive outcome. But bears have difficulties to push down, and we are entering bull area which means that there is better chance to go long than short. Enter at lows and take profit at last highs as showed in the chart.