Get started

Bias

USDJPY REVISED PROJECTIONSHello traders, After the BoJ fiasco I had to restate my assumptions and my long term bias on this pair. It seems as though the BoJ wants to drive price below 100.00 before announcing massive QE programs to address their debt issues. A strong yen will highly impact exports on the downside and they don't want that. Even though I was anticipating this from much earlier that wont seem to happen in the near future. As instead the bears will hunt USDJPY further down the road. . So it's very dangerous calling a reversal at this point and very risky indeed. If you didn't go short on the initial move its highly recommended that you stay out of shorts either. There are many supports in between and a lot of structure below this level. My analysis shows certain prices to keep an eye on. Don't use this information as a signal because the signal should be generated depending on how the price behaves around those areas. Wait for PRZ to be tested. And act accordingly. If you see price showing a complete disregard for these levels might as well follow the trend. Trade safe, trade well.
Long
by fromzerotospyro
AUDUSD potential future tradesThe weekly channel that the AUDUSD is in is still holding strong and may hold strong for weeks and months to come. AUDUSD has been climbing upwards recently before ever breaking below or even touching the 0.6800 handle. Because of this, I will be watching for two possible outcomes. 1.) Price reaches the upper edge of the channel and gives a SELL signal - I will take a sell trade at this point. 2.) Price comes back down and finally breaks the 0.6800 level and gives a SELL signal - I will also take a trade at this point. Either way, I am on the sidelines for now, keeping my eyes on this.
Short
by SubTh3ory
EURCAD: TRIPLE TOP. REMAINING BULLISHPRICE IS APPROACHING A TRIPLE TOP FORMATION AT A MINOR MONTHLY SUPPLY LEVEL PRICE HAD MADE A NEW LOW FOLLOWED BY A LOWER HIGH, HOWEVER PRICE THEN FAILED TO MAKE A NEW LOW BRINGING PRICE BACK UP TO THE 0.618 FIB LEVEL. A CLOSE ABOVE 1.565 LEVEL FOR A CONTINUED MOVE TO THE UPSIDE WITH TARGET OF 1.623 WHICH IS ALIGNED WITH THE 0.764 FIB AS WELL AS 1.27 FIB EXTENSION! ANOTHER REJECTION OF THE 0.618 LEVEL FOLLOWED BY OTHER BEARISH CONFLUENCES WOULD SEE PRICE FALL BACK DOWN TO PREVIOUS DEMAND 1.141
Long
by teewp1
FALSE BREAKSo, the first day of december began with a false break above a considerably important price. A week later it corrected itself in light of a market dominated by the bears. We proceed on the assumption (assuming is inherent in forecasting) that this bear trend is still intact unless structure says otherwise. By that I mean if '3' is breached. 5 will be considered a pivotal point in trend-continuation only if new structure lows are established (break below close below 4). With that being said, at this particular time and price, there is no reason price can't retrace higher (between 3 and 4). However, as I've said, since the false break out occurred it wouldn't be wrong to assume that this market is still significantly bearish. Whether 5 is a true retrace or not doesn't matter, because that we will not know until either price makes new structure lows or retraces deeper. I am taking sides with the bears long-term. There are plenty options since between 3 and 4 there are 1000+ pips. so by all means I will counter the trend if a solid opportunity presents. Oh and one more thing. This work is not based on elliot wave theory or any other THEORY for that matter. So take it with a pinch of salt. TRADE WHAT 'YOU' SEE! :) Thanks for reading.
Short
by WaveAlchemy
Inverting the chart to avoid bias in trade selectionHave you ever taken a chart and looked at it from the flip-side? Why would you do that? To avoid bias. There is a long bias and a short bias. We all have biases, but just need to confirm it by a simple test. Plot a chart of SYM and then plot the inverse of the chart next to it by using 100/SYM. You can make the numerator any size you want to get the price scale you want. In the example above I used 10,000/DIA to plot the inverse of the DIA as a $59 stock instead of a $168.23 stock. If you see a difference in the charts then you have a bias and it would be good to take any of your charts and flip them over first to see before you take a trade. Look at the chart of the DIA on the top left. It looks more bullish to me than bearish and my eye sees the resistance as more likely to be overcome to my eye than the chart on the top right. I see the base as more supportive and the area above as a zone to retest and work through the resistance. Therefore, I have a long bias. I see the chart on the right as bullish (bearish in reality, the inverse). See what you find in yourself. We are all different and we also see different parts of the chart stand out to our eye when we flip it over. Check it out for yourself. Tim 11:58AM EST 10/7/2015
NASDAQ:AAPL
by timwest
6
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: BOEING HOLDS 10-YEAR TRENDDuring the recent selloff, Boeing on long term basis failed the 5-year uptrend by falling below 1st upper standard deviation from 5-year (260-week) mean @ 137, however held the test of 10-year uptrend by bouncing up from 1st upper standard deviation from 10-year (520-week) mean @ 121. On short term basis, the price managed to hold 1-year ascending channel (marked by 1st standard deviation from 1-year (264-day) mean, but the risk remains on quarterly basis - the price is below 1st standard deviation from quarterly (66-day) mean (also close to 137), reflecting probability of more downside here. Thus we can conclude that while price is trading above upper 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean @ 121, the overall bias remains positive. It will be confirmed by price getting back into 5-year uptrend by breaking above upper 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean @ 137
NYSE:BALong
by Killy_Mel
Key Heuristics and Biases in Trading - Educational PieceThere is an extremely famous psychology paper written by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky named ‘Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases’ (psiexp.ss.uci.edu) (Kahneman won a Nobel Peace Prize in 1992 for his work in the field, specifically on prospect theory) which explores the decision making process. As trading requires decisions to be made constantly – stop loss adding, lot size, whether a trade is right to take etc – I think a quick write up would be highly applicable. Essentially, there are several ‘heuristics’ or ‘biases’ which I will attempt to put into a trading context. 1) Reliability . Making sense of data on the spot is a difficult task to undertake. When you look at a chart, you are looking at a representation of the market and not the actual market. Adding more and more indicators causes the reliability of this data to further decrease, possibly leading to a distorted view (however, if you are profitable with indicators then that is all that matters). 2) Representation . We normally feel that if a pattern is forming that it will play out in the way we expect. When back testing, you may look for data to represent the notion you have about a certain set up and ignore the set ups that have failed, therefore leading to a skewed view of that strategy. Indicators represent a potential set up and not what is actually occurring – indicators are used to fit a concept in your head. The fact that something is more representative does not make it more likely to occur. 3) Anchoring . Do you remember that month when you did fantastically and the next month you lost 5% of your account under the belief you could continue your run and then possibly ditched your strategy to start from scratch? This is called anchoring – you place some meaning on a certain set of results with the thought that the initial point is meaningful. You will face losses. Maybe even a quarter where you make no money. On the flipside, you may triple your account. The market is impartial to you, your strategy and your money. 4) The Gambler's Fallacy . When an event occurs more or less is a short time period, you may believe that it will happen less or more in the future. As said before, the market is impartial. Past events do not change the probability of future events occurring. 5) Hindsight bias . ‘I knew that was going to happen’. This is reasonably self explanatory and I think everyone has faced this once or twice (maybe nearer 1000) times in their trading career! Automated traders do not have the problem of biases as the emotion is taken out of the trade, which is why possibly developing an algorithm can be hugely beneficial if you have a stringent set of rules that you can programme into a computer. There are many more biases. Which have you noticed in your trading?
Education
by DavidBelleFX
GBP/CHF LONG BIASAS THE GBP CONTINUES ITS BULLISH MOMENTUM ACROSS THE BOARD IT COULD PROVIDE A NICE LONG OPPORTUNITY ON THIS PAIR. WE HAVE MADE 2 HIGHER LOWS AND RECENTLY SNEAKED IN A HIGHER HIGH. ALTHOUGH WE WASNT ABLE TO GET A CLEAN BREAK ABOVE THAT RESISTANCE IT COULD BE A GOOD SIGN OF THINGS TO COME. I AM NOW MONITORING P.A CLOSELY FOR A LONG SETUP. I HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA AROUND 1.4470 WHERE WE FIND THE 50% FIB LEVEL ALONG WITH THE ASCENDING TRENDLINE. IF PRICE HIT THIS ZONE WE COULD ALSO TAKE IT AS A RETEST OF THE DESCENDING TRENDLINE THAT WAS RECENTLY BROKEN MEANING SOME GREAT CONFLUENCES TO TAKE THE LONG IF WE GET THE RIGHT P.A. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL HIGHER HIGH TO BE MADE AT AROUND 1.4960. ONE TO WATCH HERE
Long
by UnknownUnicorn185710