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Oil price this week – how to trade?Oil price down and continue into down direction. The Oil price follows our expectation into down direction. The lockdown in Europe is the major factor for the falling oil price. World-Signals in the forecast from October 26th predicted this scenario with target of oil price (US Oil) at $34-$35. If you are following our free forecasts hold this short position during the coming week because the first target of $34-$35 is almost reached and the price may continue down lower to levels of $32. The other key news that will move the oil price is U.S. Election of course. If Biden takes the vote the oil price may continue down even below $30. Biden strategy is to stop the economy to prevent the population from the corona virus.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by World-Signals
DXY recover time?Been watching the DXY closely for a few months now as i mainly trade Bitcoin and its heavily pegged to the strength of the USD mainly from global arbitrage. I was expecting a huge retrace on BTC when the DXY started to recover from those V bottoms but it quickly got shot down again when the US markets started to recover. BTC went on a run and hit close to 14k, and now we are starting to see a second recovery on the DXY. I know this thing will probably still play buggery up to the US election but its no denying this is a heavy contributor to the movement of a number of global traded safe haven asset closes like gold silver bitcoin and other commodities. A mass recovery on the DXY could see some other markets really bleed down hard so im watching a few for some short entries but will the recovery be short lived leading to the election??? Im tipping towards around 96 before we see a halt and a breather for world markets for now but will follow it up in a week.
TVC:DXY
by DeNomics
3
BidenAnd Joe must ... But I would like to put the same text of Trump's analysis before here! TRUMP !!! 🔻🤫 Tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, we will have to buy and sell the Corona chart, of course, if this chart of the American elections is correct! 😅 This analysis is a personal opinion and so far it has not been proven that he technically predicted the elections, but I think that the absence of either of these two will certainly not be useful for us Iranians with this mismanagement and ... maybe temporary and Greenhouse) ... Unless 13 Aban (5 days until the US elections), according to him (Trump), is not present for the elections and hits everything (I remembered someone's peak, in front of the communists of the world). Translated by GoogleTranslator (I hope he translated correctly)
B
by Mojtaba-Mirkazempour
US Presidential Elections and Investment Strategies ExplainedDisclaimer: this is a completely APOLITICAL analysis based solely on facts and my personal insight. This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. In this analysis, I’ll be discussing my own thoughts on the elections, the effect on the stock market, and what we can do as investors. To begin with, my guess is that Trump’s chances of getting re-elected is higher due to a few reasons: - Shy Trumpers: We have seen Clinton dominate the polls for the previous election, underestimating the number of conservatives who weren’t open about their political views - The Democratic Criteria: Traditionally, democratic candidates who won the elections qualified for either one of these: 1) Someone who had the presidential aura and vibe to begin with, absolutely dominating the campaign over his republican counterpart Ex) Franklin D. Roosevelt, JFK 2) Someone people never even imagined would be president Ex) Barack Obama Biden is a political veteran, and someone who isn’t unexpected, as he’s the former vice president. Therefore, he doesn’t fit the conventional model of democratic candidates who have won the presidential elections. However , there are always elements of surprise, and no one can really accurately predict the results. The real surprise is that the result of the election does not have a direct impact on the stock market . Generally, investors tend to be more conservative than liberal. This is due to the fact that republicans are generally more: - Business friendly - Pro Free Market - Less prone to regulations - In support of the wealthy class The psychological aspect of these traders is also reflected in the market. However, data suggests otherwise: Above in the chart, we can see the profitability comparisons of a case when a democrat is newly elected, in contrast to a case when a republican is re-elected. This is data from the S&P500 from 1924 to 2017. Market participants believed that the economy and the stock market would underperform with a democrat as president, because liberals tend to focus on distribution of wealth more so than the accumulation of it. However, in the inaugural year, the stock market demonstrates huge growth under the democrat president. This is because they start to realize that the distribution of wealth isn’t done as well as the president said it would be. In other words, people notice that having a democrat president isn’t necessarily bad for the economy. In the same context, people have high hopes for a republican president to lead the economy upwards, but the republican president won’t do anything extraordinary compared to the democrat president. As such, the inaugural year returns are much lower. Thus, considering everything, there isn’t much of a difference in the overall returns of a stock market under either a republic or democrat president. What matters more than the president’s political stance is market timing. So what should we do as investors? Based on the data of the stock market, and the psychological insight we can get from how investors react, our plan as investors can be organized as follows: 1. If Trump Gets Re-elected The highest probable case for the stock market is that we see the market continue its uptrend for the short term. As I have previously mentioned in my other analysis, the current market is driven heavily by momentum, and Trump’s re-election will be identified as bullish news by investors. (Above is the analysis on the current Nasdaq’s uptrend) As such, in case Trump gets re-elected, it would be best to wait to see the market reach overbought territories for the short term, in order to cash out and wait for the next dip to buy in. 2. If Biden Gets Elected The highest probable case for the stock market when Biden gets elected, is to see a temporary dip in the market. As the market is driven by momentum, investors’ fear, doubt, and uncertainty will be reflected in the market, leading to a short term correction. However, as mentioned in my other analysis (chart above), the fundamentals of the companies sustaining indices such as the S&P500 or the Nasdaq index are solid. As such, over the long run, the news of Biden getting elected itself will not have any negative impacts on the stock market, and the correction will be a ‘buy the dip’ opportunity for the long term. Conclusion In summary, no one can accurately predict future events, or the market’s price action or reaction to such events. What we can, and need to do, is be prepared for all probable cases of outcomes. Above, I have provided my own take on the current situation, and how I plan on preparing for the volatility to come. These are the steps you need to follow to do your own research and analysis: 1. Establish a hypothesis, and conduct research and look for data to back it up 2. Think of all probable cases 3. Weigh in probabilities to all those cases 4. Think of an investment plan to prepare for all probable cases 5. Test your hypothesis 6. Revise your decision and thought process, and analyze why you were (in)correct. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
Editors' picks
TVC:SPX
by Michael_Wang_Official
54
NRG ENERGY BEARISHNRG is my renewable energy choice. It has great potential for growth and is currently undervalued by at least 27% according to Yahoo finance. At this moment the stock market is seeing a huge drawback and as we near the election, markets are becoming more volatile. Currently, NRG might correct to $30 over the next few days. If $30 does not hold, next stop is $28. Watch the DMI and MACD for trend reversal and buy the dip as low as you can. NRG with regards to the election, my prediction : a Biden win surges NRG upward a Trump win will correct NRG to levels below $28. BUT, it will climb again after the election. Hit like if you found this helpful. Thanks, Ev
NYSE:NRG
by BlockTechEv
1
ridethepig | Dollar UpdatesThe threat of a pullback has been set up, the unpleasant rally in USD as investors rush to park capital in the greenback. Just at the right moment, because of lockdowns, covid chapter II and things of this nature the highs can be burst open. Although we are in LONG TERM structural decline in the dollar, it does not mean we will not have to rush and take cover under the table when the storm hits shore. Buyers thus have a fortunate swing in play this week towards 95.4x. The job is only half finished, governments are aiming to default on the debt and covid / lockdowns provide the perfect cover. Capitalism is taking a sabbatical, it's being undermined and globalisation is collapsing like a house of cards. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
TVC:DXYLong
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | SPX into elections and beyond📍 SPX - into the elections and beyond This waterfall is a demonstration of how and where a decline in confidence on the risk front should be punished. The lust to expand equities higher is rather less here than one might suspect at first look. With the unsurprising hurdle of a contested election in US, buyers are threatened by an obstruction in democracy and Schwab transferring his influence across the Atlantic. The only valid plan here is to look for sells and be prepared for a waterfall into November. Sharp speculators are not buying at these levels and looking to set in motion a new economic cycle (yet), first we must finish the correction.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | Consumer Staples🛒 Consumer staples is dealing with a remarkable situation on the macro front which we have discussed at earlier opportunities (see ALPHA PROTOCOL: SEEKING IMMEDIATE EXTRACTION). One should be wary of the immediate risk for a waterfall as consumer staples hang onto the highs by a fingernail. After completing the 5 wave sequence to the topside, clearly the end of the road is approaching for this economic cycle and we must decline into 2021/2022 in order to untangle the flows for 2022 -> 2030. Time to start paying close attention for early signs of a turn. Risk is threatening to breakdown in an impulsive fashion, our opponents are attempting to prevent the breakdown, but with stimulus delayed till after the elections the protective move is out of the question this week. Strong support from a technical perspective is found at 53/52 and 48/47.
AMEX:XLPShort
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Dollar into the elections📌 This will act as the start of the next 'novel' on dollar: the first of course will serve as our map into the next 13 days. We must review the Medium and Long term charts to understand the art of what we are tracking, and the contact between Dollar and safe-haven flows as we enter into another expansion of volatility. The follow diagram portrays the position from earlier in the year, momentum arose with Covid and to such an extent that a rise in USD is no longer possible without venom for EM FX in particular. We have also been able to construct examples of the flows in main course dishes like EURUSD: In a nutshell, what we are tracking here is the C leg in a retrace wave, inside a more structural, longer term decline in the USD. A complex multi dimension environment, my short-term models are indicating of USD inflows as a protection for election risk and as an example of the ultimate safe haven with lockdowns & covid chapter II. The key question which we will answer as we move along will be if this is infact a retrace inside a sustained decline, or the start of a brand new uptrend in USD. In this scenario, a test of 97.5x would be enough to build confidence in the view. Recommend layering these in G10 and EM FX as we go for all those following the live calls. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:DXYLong
by ridethepig
27
ridethepig | USDCAD Market Commentary 2020.10.28📍 I am trying something out here with some faster flow charts. This is of similar nature to the preparations and strategy notes we made in EURUSD: In order to liberate the highs in USDCAD, buyers must take out the Tokyo defence. They are hoping to prevent the breakup for as long as possible, the annoying notion for sellers is Canada cases accelerating quickly and lockdowns chapter II entering into play. We also have managed to provoke the bull into attack from the Oil side. The supply side outweighs the demand side and will only continue to widen as national lockdowns enter back into play. The moves lower in Oil are also playable of course. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming and if these shorter-term flow charts are becoming more useful for those trading the faster flows.
Long
by ridethepig
VIX Approximations Update (Oct 26th-Dec 2nd 2020)S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) (October 26th through December 2nd 2020) Just making an update to a previous VIX forecast that I see going outside my last expected ranges, I felt it necessary when checking on SPX trends, especially with yesterday's start to a drop in E-mini futures. See below for previous guesses: Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, I am not responsible for any losses incurred while attempting to use my data, I hope this can prove to be some sort of learning tool for some and give insight as to how I personally come up with my own numbers. Take into full consideration this could be a completely bad forecast. Cheers
CBOE:VIX
by Hambooger
Descent in the DJI (October 26th-Nov 9th 2020)Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) (October 26th through November 9th 2020) Low: 27,843.7 points High: 28,374.2 points May have been way too ambitious with my last DJI projection, have now since adjusted for short term just to see where we are for my own learning purposes. Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, I am not responsible for any losses incurred while attempting to use my data, I hope this can prove to be some sort of learning tool for some and give insight as to how I personally come up with my own numbers. Take into full consideration this could be a completely bad forecast. Cheers
TVC:DJIShort
by Hambooger
Descent in the SPX (October 26th-November 9th 2020)S&P 500 Index (SPX) (October 26th through November 9th 2020) Low: 3362.9 points High: 3455 points How E-mini futures market started off yesterday: My previous SPX forecast: My adjustments today are more to correct the trajectory and duration I was originally expecting. Will be interesting to see how this spooky week turns out. Time for temporary bloodbath just before halloween? ;) Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, I am not responsible for any losses incurred while attempting to use my data, I hope this can prove to be some sort of learning tool for some and give insight as to how I personally come up with my own numbers. Take into full consideration this could be a completely bad forecast. Cheers
TVC:SPXShort
by Hambooger