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ridethepig | USDCNH into the elections📍 USDCNH into the elections Oct 2020 Markets are moving quickly. Sellers completed the third wave target at 6.629x as widely expected. The pullback we are tracking in wave 4 is now brilliant proof of a lust to expand even further down. In the 2020 macro chart, we are ahead of schedule and a healthy pullback into the elections, followed by an exchange lower seems like the pragmatic play. Of course if you are short from above you have nothing to do but continue to add on pullbacks, but for those wanting to get closer to the flows, a leg back towards 6.85x seems highly likely. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
USDJPY Market Commentary - 21 Oct. 2020A lot of things going on right now. Buyers and sellers more stressed than ever. Bullish Dollar or Bearish Dollar? Stimulus or not? To be or not to be is the next question. USDJPY a clear path though. JPY seems to win the fight between the safe-havens as it usually does in volatile times. Buyers seemed to have faith in a bullish Dollar and this was apparent till 20 Oct. after they got crushed by bears on a triangle breakout. 105.xx got dominated afterwards. A retest would be a stupid move by buyers at this point because it's way too obvious that JPY bulls are serious. (see EURJPY) Most election speculations appear to be bullish for the Dollar, This belief is backed by factors like what policy the each of the election rivals is to apply or how investors feel safer by holding USD. On the technical side, price is performing an 1-2-3 bearish impulse move. The final target for bears appear to be the 104.00 big figure that lines up with the 161.8% extension of Wave 1 which was followed by Wave 2 that saw an end after the fakeout. For the time being, bears have the control of the price. Bulls are hidden in the bushes of 104.00 and are refilling their guns to snipe back to 105.00 After that, elections result will determine the next move...
Long
by GeorgeZii
1
The Climax of the Crisis Era - Joe Biden is no ObamaEarlier this year, when Biden won the nomination. I was pretty sure he had a good shot at taking the win. Let's face it, we're living in the climax of a Crisis Generation*, and bizarre things always happen during times like these. According to the Strauss-Howe Theory, the eponymous name elaborated by the two in the 1997 book, The Fourth Turning , there are historical cycles we are apart of that generally last 80 years. 4 generations make up these cycles, they call saeculums, that last 20-ish years. Right now, we are in a crisis generation that normally brings about the end to a previous culture/way of life for a new one, or evolves into a new one. So when you look at points I've brought up in my previous ideas, you can see how America, and the rest of the world (but for my sake, America), are in a turning point era where what was previously considered zany and unlikely becomes the new flavor of the week/month/year. This is the main crux to the argument for Trump losing to Biden, much how in the last crisis generation 1930s/1940s, Herbert Hoover lost to the somewhat controversial and not-so popular Franklin Roosevelt, because of Hoover's placement in time. en.wikipedia.org Strauss-Howe Theory Hoover's presidency was marred by the development of a depression that has now been considered to be caused, or at least prolonged, by him. Really, he just used the same get-out-of-jail-free card that every president has used since in economic turmoil - bailouts, keeping wages high, and running the money printing presses. The same failure economic policies he implemented were copied by Franklin Roosevelt, but on steroids, and helped keep the US in a depression until the end of WWII. We might think the war prolonged the depression, which obviously had an effect, but when you look at the big picture, many Americans had already been long-suffering before we jumped in for the last 3 1/2 years to clean up the mess the world had started (not to underestimate the Europeans who fought hard, Africans who were thrown into a war they shouldn't have been apart of, and Chinese who were raped and pillaged by wannabe-Samurai Warriors) Many "journalists" have compared Trump to Hoover because of Hoover's whole conservative stance on immigration and his friendliness towards tariffs. That's all well and good, until you look at the fact Trump has developed such a strong base of supporters. The once-trusted media who brought us unrestrained, generally unbiased facts about these elections are now, and let's be real, very biased, and have all their financial interests pinned to a Biden presidency. If one can look at how manufactured, and divisive the media has been, then one can start to understand the importance of anecdotal evidence. Nowadays, with how our echo (masochistic self-torture) chambers, there's no way to get the real stiffy on where the public is at on issues, other than our genuine personal experience. For me, I have had the blessing to analyze one of the most important states in the Union, culturally and economically, a state that has both strong supporters for both sides, and it has helped me form a sturdy grasp on what the average joe six-pack thinks about the world we are in. Aside from Biden's terrible rally turnouts, how far and few between they are, how his platform, if he has one at all, has become about distancing himself from the only strong Democratic Party supporters, socialists, and not to mention his endless old fart gaffs, I have seen an interesting change in how American culture has changed in my relatively short lifespan. The same vim and love for Obama that was media-sponsored and publicly adorned - a seemingly strong, young man with a glimmer in his eyes and nothing but optimism for the future, that was made into a grey, blob of a 2-term presidency that has all-but been forgotten for how uneventful and corporatized it was, is not what we have for either Trump nor Biden. When I was a little kid and I had family friends and teachers who were once-Republican voters instead voting for Obama, it revealed at least some kind of unification among Americans for an idea. Albeit, a very general, unenlightened idea that at best was about free stuff for special interest groups. There was a media/public in-tandem love for Obama that couldn't be hindered by what was seen as a corporation-loving, out-of-touch evangelical sect of conservatives that ran the country, media, and public thought. Though, nowadays, the tables have turned for everyone. Young liberals are disenchanted with the Democratic Party and yearn for some socialist revolution. Nobody except democrat boomers and detached, high-falutin' progressives are blind enough to worship the TV and fake news that was once so potent in the American lifestyle. With Trump's sobering 2016 victory came a new experience to the American meta - The Shy Tory Factor, or what I'll call the Silent Majority Effect. en.wikipedia.org With important, working class states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio all going for Trump in 2016, it brought a stark reminder of a huge amount of people in this country who have felt long-forgotten as their once-enriched states that saw the American Experience at its height in much of the 20th century, fall to job outsourcing, socialist embankment in their local governments, crime spikes, and loss of buying power. These people looked to Trump as their only way out. He brought that vim and vigor that Obama brought in 2008, but with a real message - a message that America still had strength, could still rise above its crumbling infrastructure, and could be the last bastion at odds with neoliberal Europeans, dangerous terrorist-supporting OPEC countries, and a communist Chinese empire. He wanted to Make America Great Again. And when you watch his speeches and his debates from that campaign trail, which is something I have done ritually every year since, you see how he spoke truth to power. He went after how the Fed manipulated currency, how China had to "pay up", and how the US had been cheated for decades. While you might disagree, and I definitely do disagree with how he blamed foreign nations for stealing our buying power, when really we've been doing it to ourselves by selling off our entire infrastructure for lives of relative luxury, the idea was still strong. He harkened back to a time the US had real strength and optimism for the future. The Silent Majority went for him. They were pissed off, and wanted a change, but unfortunately, I will say, Trump has been just as much of a spender and clamorer for MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) as much as any other president would have, but that is unimportant to what is still so effervescent about his message, and how he has continued to do everything right in his 2020 campaign. His first term hasn't left anyone who voted for him unconvinced of his power. They are even stronger in supporting him. When I travel across my state, all I see are vivacious supporters building beautiful messages of prayer and support for Trump, hundreds of miles of Trump flags, signs, and posters, big F250s with Trump and American flags on the back. www.youtube.com It has become very clear that Trump is a strong speaker and even at his ripe old age, can still battle with the same passion. Alternatively, the Biden campaign has had a lack of rallies, terrible turnout, a platform that is unclear what it really wants aside from being anti-Trump and rhetorically anti-Socialist. This clear disparity between the abilities of both candidates, and the strength of both groups of supporters, is a testament to why Trump will win this election. Biden could've won if he took a firm position, and had the same vim Trump did, and spoke to the socialist aura of his supporters, but instead, Biden will get the same treatment Hillary did - a shallow, "grr we hate racist, but I wanna stay home and watch True Blood so wtvr" support from most liberals, and a last-time at seeming like relevant heroes who totally didn't ruin the country for the past 60 years Boomers. But in Crisis eras, we just have to wait and see. But as I said, the anecdotes matter, not so much whatever the media is throwing out. Biden is no Hillary, and Hillary was certainly no Obama. The support has waned, and we haven't seen a strong Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton, who let's be real, was able to win the South a lot easier because of his southern drawl. Al Gore, John Kerry, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton, and Joe Biden all have one thing in common - they are uninspiring, forgettable, platform-lacking candidates who have all-but become jokes. John McCain was probably the best out of all of the, but again, could not fight against the strong meme of the handsome, optimistic Obama. Biden will be remembered, along with the other losers, as a weirdo pedo who could barely talk for 20 minutes, couldn't garner any support, and only had the opportunity to fight Trump because Pocahontas and gang dropped out to let loser Biden take their delegates (I wonder what that meeting was like). Imagine if in 2016, the Republicans had forced everyone out to let Jeb Bush win - we woulda been living under a fascist Hillary dystopia right now. Trump will win, and while I'm no fan of either side, I have seen where the American consciousness is at. The Democrats have an inability to get a likeable, truth-speaking candidate out there, even if his/her truth is marred with inconsistencies and nonsense hopes and dreams. "As we must account for every idle word, so we must account for every idle silence ." - Benjamin Franklin
BShort
by MoneybagsMcGee
Trump vs Biden - Who Will Win? -Elliott Wave Applied Hey traders, Elliott wave theory tracks sentiment that moves from optimism to pessimism. These are cycles that occur everywhere in our life not only on the markets. So EW theory its a tool that can be applied even to politics. I will look at EW cycles on US Presidential elections and wondering if we can see a surprise here or shift in trend. What are your thoughts, who will win? Please leave an answer in the commentary below. Take care, GH
BEducation
by ew-forecast
9
S&P 500 EEUU 500Hello good morning I hope you’re right. A few days ago I published this idea to you, to this day it is the same I have only modified trend and lines by market movement. In the comments, in the 2 comments that our brokers commented that it would follow the second trend, The fall BEARISH . We believe that in the short term you will see high volatility whit corrections... but in the middle term we’re BULLISH and in the long run we’ lo see. LEAVE YOUR OPINION In the comments 1 or 2, and how they are positioned in short, medium up to elections, and long. Sincerely L.E.D In Spain at 13/10/2020
UShort
by wallstreetstocks
Gold remained steady near its three week peakGold remained steady near its three week peak on Monday as the dollar recovered some ground but the prospects of more US Coronavirus relief spending and uncertainty around next month’s presidential election put a floor under prices. The Trump administration called on Congress to pass a stripped -down Coronavirus relief bill using leftover funds, as negotiations on a broader package stalled ahead of the November 3 presidential election. Technically, Gold hovering on a support zone 1900-1920 with pivot at 1911 and support at ma50 (h4) at 1904. Upside resistance lies at 1922. For the day we advise to stay on buy on dips for upside ma200 as an initial target., a break above and settle scan rise sharply till 1936 or d ma50. A break that says a chart channel resistance breaks can leads to directly 1984-1995 initial resistance zone. Overall buy on dips is advised for the day. Suggestion: BUY GOLD FROM 1910-11 SL BELOW 1895 TGT 1920-25 ELSE SELL BELOW 1895 TGT 1880/1875 SL ABV 1915
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by OfficialYaMarkets
SPHealth 2 Week Comparisons (Oct 7-20 2020)SPHealth - Growth Analysis & Comparison - Cindicator Poll Submission (October 7th - 20th 2020) I've been looking through my Cindicator questions, making forecasts and watching markets as new polls pop up. Here's a comparison chart for 5 major S&P health companies and my rankings forecast. (Descending order from most growth to least) United Health Group Inc (UNH) Abbott Labs (ABT) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Pfizer Inc. (PFE) Merck & Co. (MRK) This forecast will be explicitly graded by total growth % comparisons of opening prices on October 7th to closing prices on October 20th across the 5 aforementioned companies. As of right now before 10-9-20 daily market open, the percentage growth is as follows: UNH +1.9% PFE +1.87% JNJ +1.56% ABT +1.1% MRK +0.54% When looking at a specific metric within the already completed duration since I submitted my forecast, overall recent growth is: UNH +2.82% PFE +2.66% JNJ +2.24% MRK +2.22% ABT +1.62% 10-9-20 Forecast Adjustments: Now that I have seen the last 2 days play out, I'm starting to notice a couple things about my forecast and actual live value. I'm confident that United Health will still outperform, but this outlook could change if any major market sell off occurs before the 20th. Pfizer looks like it could be a strong runner up, and I may have flubbed my original forecast by ranking it 4th in growth. Johnson & Johnson is performing approximately as expected. Merck and Abbott Labs could be tricky to pinpoint exactly without some further research and analysis but, I'm guessing that Abbott may come in 4th place if everything settles after any quick rallies that should happen. If a light pump in Merck occurs over the 19th-20th, then there could be a small chance it outperforms Abbott for 4th but it feels like an unlikely scenario. After these deliberations, I've decided my forecast doesn't need much adjusting other than to swap the placement of Pfizer and Abbott. My updated forecast is as follows: United Health Group Inc (UNH) Pfizer Inc. (PFE) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Abbott Labs (ABT) Merck & Co. (MRK) One thing to note is that I believe TradingView is not calculating its percentage scale correctly, its placing the 0% Y axis at the close value of the first candle used to calculate growth. So this graph is really just more for me to check my own work by hand, as the percentages on the left will not accurately portray what is actually being graded by Cindicator. I'll check back in after the 20th to see how this turned out! Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, I am not responsible for any losses incurred while attempting to use my data, I hope this can prove to be some sort of learning tool for some and give insight as to how I personally come up with my own numbers. Take into full consideration this could be a completely bad forecast. Cheers
NYSE:UNH
by Hambooger
FX Update: USD close to the brink of support as US yields spikeSummary: USD weakness has extended to pivotal levels that are the bull-bear dividing line between a return to a weak USD regime and the more neutral tactical outlook if USD support holds here. Volatility remains muted, but will have a hard time remaining that way if we continue to see anything resembling the pronounced weakness in US treasuries yesterday Trading focus: Getting a grip on the US yield spike and what it means for the US dollar The most important development across markets yesterday was the steep sell-off in US treasuries all along the yield curve coming after a period in which US yields have been moribund. What are the drivers here? Is the market satisfied that US data is bouncing back strongly as evidenced in the latest strong September ISM Services yesterday (at 57.8) and that a stimulus deal looks more likely now that Trump is back in the White House and has argued in favour of striking a deal? Or perhaps the signs that Biden is pulling away in the polls is the chief driver and the argument here is that the Democrats are set to take back the presidency and the Senate, therefore paving the way for a massive multi-trillion stimulus passed in the first one hundred days of a Biden administration, taking US inflation much higher while leaving the Fed policy rate pegged near zero. The US dollar has clearly been driven by the market’s pricing of future inflation. The Biden argument seems the more plausible driver here, and US rates spiked all along the curve, but most aggressively at the long-end yesterday, with the 10-year trading above 0.75% resistance and the 30-year above 1.50%, a notable chart level. Also, the stronger the apparent edge that the Democrats are achieving in the polls, the less likely that Trump’s claims of a fraudulent election will be able to drive “contested election” uncertainty for any appreciable length of time after Election Day. In the meantime, however, if US rates continue spiking here the risk sentiment apple cart could be upset and keep the USD bears at bay – tough to tell where the balance of risks lies, but equities are stumbling in the European session today after the boost yesterday, supposedly from Trump’s quick return to the White House (at the margin, a healthy Trump through Election Day keeps the risk of election chaos at bay as well). Chart: AUDUSD The AUDUSD rally has found that 0.7200 is the sticking point here after an uninspiring RBA meeting overnight that provided no notable shift in forward expectations for policy. This has coincided with EURUSD testing the 1.1800 area. The narrative for the USD bears is that the US is set to unleash further torrents of liquidity, either right away in a last-ditch Trump administration-Democratic House deal to juice the economy and get checks in the mail ASAP, or at worst, after the election with a massive, multi-trillion new stimulus from an increasingly likely US Democrat “clean sweep” scenario. The downside trigger is rather far away at 0.7000 but is the more prominent chart point. The G-10 rundown USD – the US dollar taken to the last bits of support in a number of pairs – more USD liquidity from stimulus and rising expectations of a Biden win and the deeper negative real US rates that this might bring on a heavier dose of fiscal stimulus are theoretically USD negative, but if spiking US yields spike risk sentiment, the USD bears could be in for a rough ride tactically. EUR – EURUSD has tickled the 1.1800 level, arguably the local bull-bear line for the pair and a key for the broader USD outlook. The services PMI revisions for Europe were positive for Germany, but even worse for Spain at a terrible 42.4 as piecemeal shutdowns are threatened there. The only argument for euros is that they will hold their value because more cautious fiscal in Europe together with demographics will keep the negative real rate threat lower than elsewhere. JPY – hard to argue in favour of the yen if yields spike further, but as long as the spike is isolated to the US on fear of negative real rates, the stronger JPY story could re-emerge if risk sentiment wobbles here. So many JPY crosses resemble their USD counterparts (EURUSD and EURJPY, for example) and would expect that to continue. GBP – sterling poised for good news, which the market seems to be leaning for as we await the key headline announcing some breakthrough in post-Brexit transition period negotiations. Still have long term doubts on the height of the ceiling for sterling due to the UK’s structural deficits, but a sterling surge on finally getting the Brexit issue in the rear view mirror is likely in the cards.. CHF – nothing to report here, but watching with interest on whether yield move continues higher and drives weakness at the margin. EURCHF 1.0600-1.0900 is the limbo zone for the franc and has been since June. AUD – the RBA looking for ways to bring further easing if needed, but happy where it is at present and already hopeful that the unemployment rate peaks at a lower level than previously feared. AUDUSD has found resistance again at the pivotal 0.7200 area as noted above. CAD – CAD failed to react much to the very strong surge in WTI crude yesterday as USDCAD sits at a local tactical pivot area of 1.3250 – the pair looks passive and low-beta to the USD direction. NZD – in NZDUSD terms, we have been coiling and coiling since July – the clearest level at the moment there is the 0.6500 area, which could set up a run towards 0.6400 if the USD puts on a rally again. The AUDNZD cross is lost in the desert, but downside pressure risk towards 1.0600 perhaps weighs more as long at 1.0850 isn’t retaken. S EK – EURSEK needs a positive news in Europe and another surge in risk sentiment to punch back down through the 10.40 pivot area and suggest an end to upside risk. Right now - in limbo between recent top and that 10.40 area. NOK – a nice rebound in crude oil gives the NOK a shot in the arm and if positive risk sentiment continues here, we could see a full return to the 10.50 area in EURNOK. The CPI rise and implications for negative rates looks scary until we consider that it is mostly FX-driven as the trade-weighted NOK is some 8% below where it was a year ago even after the comeback from the spring-time lows. 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