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Bigshort

BTC: The Big Short 2022 📉🐻When people live on hopium they detach from reality and refuse to look at the bigger picture Analysis paralysis is an inability to make a decision due to over-thinking It’s usually accompanied with an overall sentiment of wishful thinking in the financial markets This translates to extreme fear and greed, the more fearful or greedy investors are, the harder it gets to predict the next market move. This is especially true when markets are at new all time highs or lows. You guessed it, current market readings are overbought, everyone is greedy and wants in, and prices are at new ATH Sooner or later this leads to one end… and it’s much simpler and uglier than you think Crypto first, others follow Crypto markets has relatively proven to be test grounds for conventional stock markets , as almost every major crypto crash is followed shortly by a stock market crash I strongly believe we’re on the verge of a recession at the very least, others might even call it a depression My view depicts an imminent bitcoin & crypto market crash, followed by a stock market crash initiating a long-term bear market and a chain reaction of global recession Without further ado, let’s dive in! The Technicals Yield Curve The yield curve shows the relationship between short-term & long-term interest rates of U.S. Treasury notes Usually, the longer the duration, the higher the interest rate, but when the rates draw closer to one another, the yield curve flattens. An inversion of the curve is typically seen as a warning signal for the market Long story short, The yield curve has flattened recently, with long-dated bonds nearing their lowest point for a year Last time this happened in 2018 bitcoin crashed hard! Consumer Price Index (U.S.) CPI is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services in the U.S. Pre 2008 recession, the CPI was at an all time high of 5.6%, currently it’s at an ATH of 6.8% Money Stock You can’t print money forever! Scarcity is the definition of value. If everyone have it, why would they want it? In fact, this is why economies plunge and currencies become worthless just like in Venezuela and Lebanon Quantitative easing (QE) is a monetary policy whereby a central bank purchases predetermined amounts of government bonds or other financial assets in order to inject money into the economy to expand economic activity This fancy term simply translates to creating more money whether physically or digitally out of thin air! The Federal Reserve has printed unprecedented amounts of money to support the coronavirus-stricken economy Data from the Fed shows that a broad measure of the stock of dollars, known as M2, rose from $15.4 trillion at the start of 2020 to $21.18 trillion in December 2021. The increase of $5.78 trillion equates to 27.28% per cent of the total supply of dollars. It means more than one in four dollars was created in 2020 and 2021 ! U.S. Dollar Strength U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) represents the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, most significant of which is the Euro, accounting for 57.6% of the basket As of this writing, the DXY has failed twice to break historic resistance level of Fib 0.618 around 100 and unless it’s able to break it this time (which i doubt considering the over-bought RSI) it’s expected to pull back to previous support of 80 at least, if not retest ATL of 70 The EUR on the other hand is expected to rise as a hedge against the USD Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Overview Looking at the weekly and monthly time frames, you can clearly see ~$70k price rejected twice with a double top, zoom out a little and a head & shoulders pattern is half complete with a declining volume, an over-bought RSI, a bearish MACD, and a widening BB. Price action Scenarios Best case scenario is we climb up one more leg to hit the last Fib 4.236 retracement from 2017’s ATH to 2018’s ATL at around $73.5k-$74k (depending on the exchange) The only way we can have another bull-run continuation is if we manage to break-out and close weekly above $74k Average case scenario is an H&S right shoulder at $53k, if we manage to break-up, it could be a bull trap retest to $58k-$60k Worst case is we just keep dumping to retest previous key support levels at $42k, $36k, and $30k which is the neckline of the double top If we can’t hold $30k then it’s downhill from there to $20k, $16k, $13.5k, $11.5k, and lastly $9.5k which could be the last time ever for BTC hitting 4 digits again, as $20k will be the new support This has confluence with the intersection of 0.5 pitchfork (19850-3217-64802) and 0.5 pitchfork (64802-28149-68974) and Fib 0.382 (19850-3159) at $9534 which makes sense when viewed on a log-scale chart on the 1W frame, you can clearly see a strong support zone there. BTC Dominance The inverse correlation between BTC price and its market dominance means that when BTC is at ATH, BTC.D is at ATL This is exactly the case right now where BTC.D is currently at 40.5% and seems en route to retest previous support at 37.5% thus forming a huge double bottom ready to bounce back up strongly ----------- Stay Safe, Don’t lose your money, It’ll be painful for the unprepared See you on the other side, inch-Allah Godspeed ----------- You can read more here: I predicted the 2018 bitcoin crash... It's time to sell 📉 DISCLAIMER: Not Financial Advice! Please trade at your own risk.
Short
by TannerJ
5
A huge drop for bitcoin. are you ready A huge head-to-shoulder pattern is being completed, and we will probably see a huge drop in early 2022, with prices dropping to around $ 14,000. So do not rush to buy because great opportunities are on the way. And the biggest and worst issue in the recent trend of selling whales and Maple companies is macro-strategy, and many other issues that prove to us that the uptrend is definitely over, so be sure to divide all your assets into dollars so that you can Take advantage of future opportunities. shoooooooooooooooooooooooooort !!!
Short
by saba007
2
Pfizer manipulates the marketPre pandemic this stock was in the process of a bear market. Big handed investors prepared their investors where to move money. With the help of the government they can now force every citizen to take their manufactured "Drug" for life. ... Big government is working for big business to keep money flowing into their pockets for Life. Gov+Mandates= money for an entirety of human life will go into big pharmaceuticals. Al those yellow lines are day gaps in money that need to be filled. What will be the last domino and when?
NYSE:PFEShort
by Morbius_Murphy
Re distribution Next event!Welcome to thunderboy21 technical analysis, Here you see 2 parts on the chart that are very similar to each other, as i have said is my previous Post i was looking at this fractal from above distribution and projected it on this price action. i shorted the top via this fractal for a 20% move down ( Did not expect that fast ) i think this is just going to play out, first on the rise up to 49k ish everyone gets ultra bullish and fomo longs, only to sell into the bigger sell orders that are waiting at these levels. in the next post i will post the picture of this .618 - .66 fib with all the confluence i found! Make sure you check it out! SMASH that like button ! Follow for more great insights! that is thunderboy21 signing out
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PShort
by Thunderboy21
2
Negative Rate Cut? Powell Wants a Correction $SPYThe markets are at a crucial spot and Powell is due for a decision soon... The chance of negative rates is low but definitely not out of the picture and if that happens, TLT will pump and HYG/IWM will dump (yes SPY too). Timing will be hard but the pressure is certainly building and is confirmed on the technical side of things. $TLT tested a crucial level at $148.9 this last week which could signal weakness in the equity/bond market as well as the Dollar. Either A) things will spin out of control regarding Delta variant and TLT will breakout or we could see this melt-up continue for roughly 4-5 more months before seeing IWM and the rest of the market make its correction. If TLT were to fall the market could also very likely follow to the downside, this environment is choppy. On the other hand, we watch IWM as it typically can signal weakness in the market via smaller cap companies. If the markets do correct, puts on IWM/HYG will pay beautifully. I'll give this 6 - 8 month then pop, otherwise my short position will get stopped and we could just continue to melt up until the next election. Also whether Crypto has it's one or two top cycle will play a part in all this as money will either transfer away or to the Crypto market (& possibly away from other markets). It should go as followed If markets do correct to the downside: 1) TLT will breakout and possibly melt quickly as done in 2020 or flash crash. SPY/ETFs could see a gap down then trend up to retest as resistance 2) SPY will begin its bleed, IWM HYG leads the way to the downside. 3) Metals and Cryptos seem like they could move in sync. Cryptos might even lead the way. The one question I ask is if people sell out of both Cryptos and Stocks, where does their money go? Will this create the largest spending era or send us into a depression? Share your thoughts below DCJ | Melt-Up or Short
AMEX:HYGShort
by DotcomJack
2
CRASH on the S&P500 and the economy / PART 2 ( Update )---------------------------------------------- REMINDER ---------------------------------------------- We did a few months ago an analysis on the S&P500 chart based on some behavior patterns, which would trigger some results, we marked some crash zones, but the fundamentals have changed this past scenario. What is the reason for this change? The big dollar printing by the Federal Reserve and the unwary investors who have been lured by these big gains. This generated a short squeeze that has continued to drive the price higher. The chart has changed, but what has not changed is the price projection. We are still in the Crash Danger Zone, this zone will never disappear until the market has made a deeper correction. Pay attention, because we are facing a complex situation, and here a good management is the only thing that will help us. ---------------------------------------------- ANALYSIS ---------------------------------------------- On the one hand, we still have a prolonged Divergence, which ALWAYS triggers an extremely strong correction. On the other hand, the fibonacci calculations have been rendered obsolete by the short squeeze generated, but this has triggered a Bubble pattern. The curved red line is the guide to the pattern we are talking about. Normally bubble patterns, when they break the curve strongly and consistently, usually lose 60% of the value of the asset, then a strong rebound to 61% Fibo, and end with a total fall of 70% 80% or 90% of the value. After this... the market is as if it were dead. If the asset has a real and natural value... This zone becomes an accumulation zone. ( Buy ) All this mentioned is the normal behavior of this type of patterns. But as we are talking about a very important and controlled market .... We must watch all the support zones marked on the chart. In normal circumstances or less important graphs... It should penetrate all the support zones no matter what the zones are. But in this market we must be pending in each support zone and go managing our stop loss with caution and without greed. I do not recommend looking at earnings, simply be guided by the drawing and manage well the Traling Stop. I would like to remind anyone who has forgotten... that before a sharp fall in the market... We are warned with viruses, from 2 to 3 viruses, and then always comes the crash. I did not invent this, it is written in the chart. ---------------------------------------------- HOW DO WE MANAGE IT? ---------------------------------------------- For all this, I recommend caution. - If you are in a trade or you are in the market, the most advisable is to have a traling stop below the bubble curve. - For the more risky, we can prepare our progressive shorts as the price continues to rise. - For the more conservative, you can wait for the bubble to burst and on the bounce towards the 61% fibo area, open a bearish trade. Best of luck to all.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Pro_Trade_Robots