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Bigskycrypto

TWTR - Possible Inverse Head and Shoulders PatternI believe Twitter has a strong possibility of completing the inverse head and shoulders pattern. It has made a strong move upward over the last 5 sessions and is most likely due for a rest or pull back. I believe this pull-back will form the right shoulder completing the pattern. My feeling is that if this pattern does not complete it will be because Twitter does not pull back enough to form the right shoulder, but instead just keeps pushing higher. My opinion is that Twitter is still undervalued at these prices and will eventually move to new all-time highs. I should also disclose that I believe strongly enough in Twitter's potential that I have entered a long position in Twitter with both shares and options.
NYSE:TWTRLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
Bitcoin - Is This an Accelerated Boom and Correction Cycle?Hello, fellow crypto enthusiasts! I hope you are all doing great. This is probably some pretty crazy analysis but humor me for a bit. So, during this bear market that Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies have gone through. I have been comparing this current market cycle to the 2013 - 2015 boom and correction cycle. My reason for doing this is to try to find similarities between the two cycles which may shed some light on how long this current cycle may last, and possibly when we may see another bull market begin. I should first say that when I speak of the start of a new bull market, I am not saying that at that point Bitcoin is going to skyrocket to new all-time highs within a matter of weeks or even months, although I would love that. My definition of a new bull market is a new uptrend where the price of Bitcoin is making higher highs and higher lows not only on a daily but more importantly on a weekly and monthly time frame. I should also say that I am making a lot of assumptions in coming up with this analysis but what the hell, what fun would it be if we didn't go out on a limb now and then. I want to also say that for this analysis I am using the Bitfinex price chart. Okay, getting to the point of this new chart, looking at the 2013 - 2015 cycle we can see that from the peak on Dec. 4th, 2013 it took 406 days to reach the low on Jan. 14th, 2015. We can also see that it took approximately 696 days from the peak to what I would call the start of a new bull market. I am saying that the bull market started around the end of Oct. 2015 when the price of Bitcoin broke out from the highs of the consolidation phase. So, looking at the current cycle we can see that it has taken 189 days from the peak on Dec. 17th, 2017 to reach the low on June 24th, 2018. This is where I make a big assumption, I am assuming that the low on June 24th will be the ultimate low for this cycle (fingers crossed!). So, moving forward comparing the timing of the 2013 – 2015 peak to low to the current peak to low, the current cycle has completed this in about half the time, 189 days compared to 406 days. Technically a little less than half but for this analysis, I am rounding it to half. So here, again I am going to make a big assumption, I am going to assume that this whole current market cycle will also be accelerated by 50%. I know crazy right! But I am going to do it anyway, although sometimes I think I jinx myself when I try to make predictions. Great I have probably doomed the whole crypto market! Yeah right, like anything I do has that kind of power. Sorry, getting back to my analysis. So, if I assume everything is accelerated by 50% then the time from the peak of this current cycle until the start of the next bull market should be about 348 days, which would put it somewhere around December 1st, 2018. I hate being too specific, so I will just say around that date. We can also see from the chart that it took about 483 days from the start of the new bull market in 2015 for Bitcoin to set a new all-time high on Feb. 23rd, 2017. So, if we extrapolate that to the current cycle then once the new bull market begins we should see a new all-time high around 240 days later, which would put it around the end of July 2019. Going even further out on a limb, we can see from the chart that it took about 780 days from the start of the 2015 bull market until the peak of this current cycle. So, that would then put the peak of the new bull market at around 390 days or around December 26th, 2019, that would be a great Christmas present for sure! I really appreciate you taking the time to check out my analysis, and I hope you found it interesting even if it is crazy!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
14
What is the Cause of Bitcoin's Low Volatility?What’s up crypto enthusiasts, traders and investors? I hope all is well. I read an article that came out yesterday titled “Bitcoin Market Has Run Out of Juice”. The article seems to be based on a report put out by Element Group a cryptocurrency economics and digital assets solutions analyst. The article states that the report explains that the SEC’s delay in approving any bitcoin ETF proposals is the primary reason why the market has become so boring and volatility so low in recent weeks. That article got me thinking, could there be another explanation for the large drop in volatility that we have seen, especially over the last few weeks. After I thought about it for a while I started to wonder if maybe the drop-in volatility is more just a normal part of a correction cycle rather than being news or event driven. So, first I started looking at some of the other cryptocurrencies to see if they also have experienced a large drop in volatility over the past 9 or 10 months. I concentrated on cryptos with larger market capitalization because I felt they were most likely more widely traded. What I found was that they all had substantial reductions in volatility since the beginning of this year, but a few of them hit a low a month or so ago and since have had an increase in volatility. I also went back and look at the boom and correction cycle Bitcoin went through starting at the end of 2013 and running into 2015 you will also see a very similar pattern to what we are seeing now. Before and after the peak there was extreme volatility but as the price moves closer to the bottom there is a substantial reduction in volatility. I also decided next to look at various stocks that had gone through severe corrections to see how the price action changed as the correction cycle progressed. So first I examined a chart of Amazon during the dot-com crash and what I found was that to me it looks very much like bitcoin does over the past 10 months. I am not saying that the price pattern looks the same but that the way the volatility decreases as the correction cycle progresses does follow the same pattern. You can see that before and after peaking Amazon experienced wild price swings but the closer the price got to the ultimate bottom the volatility subsided just as Bitcoin has done. I then went on and examined several other stocks and found similar patterns, this substantial drop in volatility seems to be most prevalent in stocks that experience a severe correction along with a prolonged consolidation period. There were some that I found where they did experience a correction but then bounced back quickly in the form of a “V” shaped bottom, in those instances there was a drop-in volatility but not to the extent that I found with Bitcoin, Amazon or the others that had prolonged consolidation periods. So, after examining quite a few different examples I believe what we are seeing with Bitcoin may well be just a very normal part of a typical correction cycle, I would characterize what we are seeing now as kind of a cooling off period such as you see during a normal consolidation phase. I am not saying that Bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies or any other asset can not be affected by news or events because they can, my opinion is just that for the most part the price action we are seeing right now is very natural.
Long
by Bigsky_Crypto
4
Bitcoin - Low Volatility and ConsolidationHello fellow crypto enthusiasts! I wish I could tell you exactly what BTC is going to do in the days and weeks to come but sadly I can't. One thing that is apparent is how much the volatility has dropped. Since setting a low of $6119.50 (Bitfinex price) BTC has been in a slight uptrend. Zooming out to a long term view, compared to the wild swings we were seeing in the past BTC looks to almost looks to have flat lined. I can't say for sure that BTC has bottomed although it does feel like it has to me. I will go out on a limb here and say that I believe BTC is now in a consolidation phase and has been since it set the low on June 24th. As I said I am not sure what BTC will do from here but my feeling is that we could stay in the consolidation phase for a while yet, trading in a range from around $6000 up to 7500 or even $8000. Looking at the daily chart right now there are a couple things that I like. I like how the lower trend line is still being respected (at least so far) and I like how the 100 SMA has started to curve upward slightly toward the 200 SMA that is still trending downward. The spread between them is the closest since they crossed back on April 15th. As long as the bottom does not fall out, they should continue to creep closer to each other. At that point a nice sustained push higher by BTC could potentially get the 100 SMA back above the 200 SMA which would be very bullish. In my opinion besides BTC breaking out above the long-term downtrend trend line, getting back above and staying above the daily 200 SMA is a critical milestone that BTC has to accomplish before the next bull market can begin. I feel like the days and weeks ahead are going to be a very critical time for BTC and although I feel pretty confident that BTC has bottomed I also realize that anything is possible and as such BTC could still at some point take out the 2018 low and head much lower.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
Bitcoin Fibonacci FanI was messing around looking at the overall shape of Bitcoins price pattern, I was looking at angles, trend lines , support and resistance areas. So I decided to apply a Fibonacci Fan to it, I started at the point I believe Bitcoin started a new bull market at the beginning of Nov. 2015 @ $300. I then projected the fan up to the all time high near $20,000. I then spread the fan out so that it would encompass the whole price pattern. Maybe it is just because I want it to fit but to me it seems like there are an awful lot of areas where the price respects these Fib lines. I am new to using the Fib fan so if I totally screwed this up I am sorry. I still like it either way.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
1
Bitcoin – The Pressure Builds!Hello fellow crypto enthusiasts! I hope you are all having a great weekend. So, the Bitcoin saga continues and as we know where Bitcoin goes generally the rest of the crypto market follows. I wish my analysis and my outlook in the short to medium term was not so negative but I’m afraid that it is. What I am seeing when I look at Bitcoin's price action is steadily growing pressure. I believe the pressure is growing just like a spring that is being compressed. I am seeing this in a couple of ways, the first is what I see as the price forming smaller and smaller descending triangles and secondly, I am seeing a compression or increased frequency of the price waves. At some point I believe this pressure will be released and it is going to explode in one direction or the other. Unfortunately, I feel the odds are that it will be to the down side. If this does happen I feel that we will see a quick and substantial drop, I would say that most likely to the $5000 level or possibly even lower. To try and determine the ultimate downside target we can measure the widest part of the red descending triangle which measures about $2700 and then subtract that from the break down price. So, doing the math I would estimate the downside target to be around $3000. I don’t believe we will see an immediate drop to this level it most likely will take several weeks or even months to get there. Like I said I wish I had a more positive outlook but at this time I don’t, I would have to see a big change in the price action and much more bullish momentum before I could change my opinion. I published a chart back in July where I listed important milestones that I want to see before I will believe we have entered into a new bull market (Link below). I am also not trying to say that this bearish outlook is a sure thing, I could very well be wrong, and the major support level Bitcoin has been bouncing off will continue to hold. There is a possibility that Bitcoin has already bottomed, and we are now in a consolidation phase, but I will have to see support continue to hold and the price pattern change from descending triangles to a channel before I will believe it. As always I want to also add that long term I remain very bullish on cryptos as a whole and look forward to the next bull market, it is just in the short to medium term that I am bearish. For those not familiar with descending triangles here is a brief overview from StockCharts.com. 1) The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. 2) Trend: To qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. However, because the descending triangle is definitely a bearish pattern, the length and duration of the current trend is not as important. The robustness of the formation is paramount. 3) Lower Horizontal Line: At least 2 reaction lows are required to form the lower horizontal line. The lows do not have to be exact but should be within reasonable proximity of each other. There should be some distance separating the lows and a reaction high between them. 4) Upper Descending Trend Line: At least two reaction highs are required to form the upper descending trend line. These reaction highs should be successively lower and there should be some distance between the highs. If a more recent reaction high is equal to or greater than the previous reaction high, then the descending triangle is not valid. 5) Duration: The length of the pattern can range from a few weeks to many months, with the average pattern lasting from 1-3 months. 6) Target: Once the breakout has occurred, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and subtracting it from the resistance breakout. Thank you for taking the time to check out my analysis and I would appreciate your feedback, if you think I am crazy let me know!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Bigsky_Crypto
5
Anatomy of the Bitcoin Price PatternWelcome crypto enthusiasts! I hope you are all having a great weekend, and for those who are celebrating the Labor Day holiday it is a long weekend! What could be better? Right! So, what could be better? A new crypto bull market would be nice! I am not just talking about the three temporary rebounds we have seen over the last 7 months, I am talking about a real deal bull market that will take BTC and other cryptos to new all-time highs. So, after bottoming on August 14th at just over $5858 Bitcoin has been trending upward ever since, but is this just another temporary rebound or something more? My personal feeling is that the crypto markets aren’t quite ready for a new bull market, in my opinion there needs to be a period of consolidation before the next bull market begins. As I have said before I believe that this correction process is going to take more time, most likely a few more months before the market is ready for a real sustained bull market. Honestly, I would love to be wrong, nothing would make me happier than to see new all-time highs soon, but I just don’t feel that it will happen. For this week’s Bitcoin chart, I am taking a long-term view at Bitcoins price action. The first thing that stuck out to me is how volatile the price action was just before and after the peak in December and how it has been smoothing out ever since. It reminds me of how when you drop a ball at first there is a lot of energy and you get a nice high bounce the first time but then every time the ball contacts the floor it loses energy making each additional bounce smaller and smaller. In my opinion this Bitcoin price action is very natural, after building up so much energy climbing to nearly $20,000 that energy was transferred to the subsequent fall to $6000. It happened with such energy and momentum that once the price collided with the strong support near $6000 it caused a quick reversal (V bottom) and the energy was transferred to the rebound. Of course, the collision with support caused an energy loss the same as a ball so naturally the rebound did not reach the original height. You can then see that each additional bounce is smaller, again just like a ball. Also notice that on average the daily candles are much shorter now then they were leading up to the peak and for several months afterward. You can also see this reflected in the MACD, the signals are very erratic during December, January and February but then they smooth out as time goes on. So obviously Bitcoin is not a ball so what would explain this similar reaction. I believe it has to do with market sentiment, after the first quick drop there were many people who were very eager to jump in, especially people who missed the first ride up to $20,000. Their belief was most likely that there would be a quick bounce and BTC would run to new highs over $20,000. In my opinion this is what caused the first very quick "V" bottom recovery, but instead of soaring over $20,000 it failed at just under $12,000 when the buying dried up and dropped back down again near $6000. For the next bounce there were plenty of buyers near $6000 but fewer people believing that BTC was going to recover quickly and soar so the bounce was not as quick and buyers dried up at even a lower price, this time BTC never even made it above $10,000. I think the same thing happened for each additional bounce, each time there were buyers down near $6000 but fewer and fewer people willing to jump in and buy BTC at higher prices, causing the bounces to get smaller and smaller. My point with all of this is that I believe we still have a few bounces left to go before the crypto markets climb their way to new all-time highs. Of course, as I said I could be wrong, so I will be watching Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies closely for clues that would convince me that a new bull market has begun. The first clue I will be watching for will be if BTC can push above the daily 200 SMA, it has been below it since the middle of March. If we go back and look at the 2013 to 2016 boom and correction cycle you will see that it was only after BTC was able to push and stay above the 200 SMA that it was able to enter a sustained bull market. I believe this will be the strongest clue that the correction is over, and a new bull market is just around the corner. Other clues I will be watching for are growing volumes, since bottoming in June the volume has increased each month since which is a good start. I will also be watching for back to back monthly closes higher than the last, that has also not happened since the peak in December. I should also add that I am not totally convinced that BTC has hit bottom, although BTC has bounced convincingly several times from just under $6000 the possibility still exists that it could go lower. It is possible the uptrend we are witnessing now could reverse and this time the price not bounce as it has in the past but instead drop lower creating a new low for the year. As I have said I believe that this correction process still has a way to go but If BTC was to drop substantially below $6000 then my opinion would be that we are in store for a very long wait for the next bull market. Anyway, I hate to end on a negative note but that's all I have for now. Thank you for checking out my charts and have a great weekend!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Bigsky_Crypto
8
This Could be a Critical Point for BitcoinHello, fellow crypto enthusiasts! First, I really appreciate you taking the time to check out my charts and analysis. So BTC has once again re-tested the 2018 low and once again it has held. The important question here is how long can this lower support level hold up? It is very possible we may find out the answer to that question very soon. On July 31st I published an idea that included three charts representing three different scenarios for BTC, one was bullish, one was neutral, and one was bearish. Unfortunately, this idea was hidden by TradingView because I violated the house rules (I included links to my website and store), this is only allowed for those with a premium plan (I have the Pro plan). Anyway, in this published idea the bullish scenario was that BTC had broken out of the top of the descending triangle it has been forming for many months and was now pulling back to re-test the upper triangle trend line. Unfortunately, this scenario was invalidated because the price of BTC did not bounce and kept dropping thru the upper trend line. The neutral scenario (Chart above) was that BTC has started trading in a consolidation channel ($6000 to $10,000) which started back in March. There is no telling how long this could continue, it could go on for many more months or it could end very soon with a break out above the upper trend line. During the 2014 correction, BTC spent about 10 months in a consolidation phase (the middle of January to the beginning of November). For this scenario to be validated BTC would have to continue trading in this channel. A break down lower to new lows or a breakout higher above the upper trend line would invalidate this scenario. The bearish scenario (Chart above and main chart) was that BTC has not broken out of and in fact still trades within a descending triangle. Since a descending triangle is a bearish continuation pattern, the move higher that BTC made back in July was nothing more than a move to the triangles upper trend line. You can see by the chart that the price did in fact move up to the upper trend line only to fail to break through and subsequently dropped back down to the lower support level. For this scenario to play out further I would expect a continuation of trading within the triangle or a move from here down to the lower trend line again, and possibly a break below the trend line to new lows. If instead Bitcoin pushes higher from here and breaks out above the upper trend line, that would invalidate this scenario. Of the three scenarios I wrote about (Bullish, Neutral, Bearish), I believe that only the neutral and bearish are still valid. My hope that we are in a neutral consolidation pattern (channel) and the lower support keeps holding however I still thing that there is a strong chance that the bearish scenario plays out. If I remember correctly descending triangles typically breakdown at about 2/3 of the way from the left side to the apex which is about where BTC is now. It should also be noted that it looks like BTC may be forming a head and shoulders pattern right on the lower support level. I should also say that I didn't spot the potential head and shoulders pattern it was Joey Rocket of Joey Rocket Cryptos or Team Joey Rocket who brought it to my attention. I want to also say that Joey provides tons of great information about cryptos and for anyone that wants to check him out, he is all over social media (Twitter, YouTube, Steemit, Discord). I am trying not to be too negative, there is a chance even if BTC is forming a descending triangle that it could still beak out of it to the upside. There are some instances where this does happen, especially the longer the lower support holds and the closer the price gets to the apex. The longer this goes on the shorts (sellers) lose hope of pushing it down any lower, it's all about psychology. Chances are as the price moves closer to the apex more and more shorts will most likely pile in but if they cannot force the price to break support because there are an equal number of buyers at some point they will give up and cover which will cause a quick and extremely powerful bullish move. Again, I really appreciate you taking the time to check out my charts/analysis and hope you all have a great weekend!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Bigsky_Crypto
My Thoughts on Bitcoin as of August 4th 2018Hello, fellow crypto enthusiasts, investors, and traders. I hope you are all having a great weekend! Okay, let's get right into it. Once again Bitcoin was rejected at the daily 200 SMA, this makes the fourth time (my count) that Bitcoin has approached but failed to push above the 200 SMA. I believe this shows just how strong of resistance the daily 200 SMA really is and how important (bullish) it will be when Bitcoin eventually does break above it. It is possible that it will take some sort of bullish event to occur before this will happen, possibly the SEC approval of one of the Bitcoin ETF's this month. This could cause an upward movement with enough momentum to break through the daily 200 SMA. On the flip side if both ETF applications are rejected by the SEC this could be the catalyst for continued selling and possibly new lows. Personally, I would rather see Bitcoin bounce in the next day or so and continue to create higher lows as it moves higher once again. I would also like to believe that the bottom has already been set for Bitcoin at just under $6000. Obviously, I have no way of knowing just what Bitcoin will do over the next days and weeks, long-term I remain very bullish but in the short to medium-term I am probably more neutral to bearish. I still get the feeling that the correction the whole crypto market has been in for months now still has a ways to go yet before we see the next real bull market. I published three charts of Bitcoin on July 31st with my thoughts on what I see as three possible scenarios Bitcoin could follow. Unfortunately, it was hidden for violating the house rules (I included links to my website and store), that was totaly my fault, I should have been aware of the rules ahead of time. Anyway, I though I would include those charts and thoughts again here (without the links) for anyone who may be interested in seeing it. I have also added updates to the charts and analysis. Scenario #1 ( Bullish scenario) - In the chart above shows that Bitcoin has broken out of the top of the descending triangle it has been forming for many months. It also shows that with the recent pull back, Bitcoin is now re-testing the upper trend line of the triangle before continuing it's march higher. In my opinion for this scenario to be validated Bitcoin will need to bounce off of the trend line and continue it's move higher. I believe a failure to follow through in this manner would invalidate this scenario. Update: Bitcoin failed to bounce and broke through the trend line, therefore this scenario is invalidated. Scenario #2 ( Bearish scenario) - In this scenario Bitcoin has not broken out and in fact still trades within a descending triangle . Due to the fact that a descending triangle is a bearish continuation pattern, the move higher that Bitcoin has made over the last month was nothing more than a move to the triangles upper trend line . For this scenario to play out further I would expect a continuation down to near the lower trend line , and possibly a break below the trend line to new lows. If instead Bitcoin pushes higher and breaks out above the upper trend line , that would invalidate this scenario. Update: Bitcoin did not breakout above the triangles upper trend line and is now moving lower so IMO this scenario is still valid. Scenario #3 (Neutral scenario) - In this scenario Bitcoin -5.69% is in a consolidation phase and is trading in a channel which started months ago. There is no telling how long this could continue, it could go on for many more months or it could end very soon with a break out above the upper trend line . I am just as anxious as anyone for Bitcoin (and cryptos in general) to take off to new all-time highs but I believe a long consolidation phase would be very healthy for BTC.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Bigsky_Crypto
Bitcoin Showing Some Signs of Life!Hello, fellow crypto enthusiasts and investors! So with the nice surge higher that we have seen in Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies over the last few days, I just thought I would once again publish a chart showing what I believe are important steps Bitcoin needs to accomplish in order to keep up the bullish momentum (Listed below, they are also on the chart). Bitcoin has made an impressive move with some pretty good volume but is this really the start of a sustained recovery or just another temporary bounce higher? If I really knew the answer to that I would either be buying all of the Bitcoin I could get or shorting the shit out of it! Unfortunately, I don't know the answer and will just have to watch the price action for any clues that it may provide. As many of you most likely are aware, I am very bullish on cryptos long-term but feel that this boom and correction cycle that cryptos are working through may have quite a while to go yet. So, I am not yet convinced that the double bottom we saw between $5700 and $5800 was actually the real bottom or just a short-term bottom. Believe me, nothing would make me happier than to see Bitcoin and all the other cryptos skyrocket higher from here, however, I am trying to be patient and not get my hopes up every time there is a large move higher. My gut feeling right now is that this is more likely just a short-term bounce higher and that Bitcoin will most likely fail to push through the resistance zone from $7800 to $8000. Below are the important steps I believe Bitcoin needs to accomplish in order to keep moving higher. Important Steps for Bitcoin 1) Pushing above and staying above the 100 SMA (daily time frame) 2) Breaking through the Pink downtrend trend line 3) Pushing above and staying above the 200 SMA (daily time frame) 4) Push above and stay above $10,000
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Bigsky_Crypto
Digibyte - A Bullish TrendHello and thank you for checking out my charts. Although most of my money is invested in the larger market cap. cryptos I do own quite a few other smaller market cap. cryptos also. One of the small cap. cryptos that I am very bullish on is Digibyte. In my opinion, it has been one of the strongest cryptocurrencies as of late, it has shown strength even when many other cryptos were falling, including Bitcoin. I like the price chart which shows that DGB has been in a consolidating trading channel for about six months. To be honest I have no idea how long DGB will continue to trade in the channel, at this point I really don't care as I consider my position in DGB to be a very long-term position (years). I have been adding and will continue to add to my position especially on any pullbacks, ultimately I am looking at a minimum position size of 50,000 to 100,000 depending on future purchase prices. In my opinion, DGB looks even better when compared to Bitcoin (see chart below), DGB is forming an upward sloping symmetrical triangle and has just pushed above what I see as a pretty strong resistance zone that extends from around .00000500 up to .00000600.
BITTREX:DGBUSDLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
5
Bitcoin - Return to the Long-Term Trendline?Hello, fellow crypto enthusiasts! Most cryptos saw a nice little pop yesterday with Bitcoin getting back over the $6000 level going from around $5900 to over $6500. I am very skeptical of this bounce though, I do not believe that this is the beginning of a long-term recovery, it could, however, be the start of a short-term recovery. My personal belief is that it is going to take some time before we see a real long-term recovery, which I believe will come after a period of consolidation which could last several months. So, for today's chart, I am looking at a long-term view of the price of Bitcoin using the daily time frame (Bitfinex price). Because I am looking at a very long-term view I am using a logarithmic scale, another reason I am using a log scale chart is because of the huge increase in the price of Bitcoin over this period. Okay, so looking at the chart which starts around July of 2013 you can see that I have drawn in a long-term trend line which begins around the beginning of September 2015 and has periodic price touches up until the end of March 2017. You can see that I have also extended the trend line up beyond today's price level. Notice how starting around the end of March last year the price of Bitcoin broke away from the trend line and accelerated higher culminating in the hysteria of last fall and the eventual peak at just under $20,000 in December. Since that peak on December 17th, the price of Bitcoin has been stuck in a correction phase which is still playing out today. Ultimately, the price of Bitcoin will find a bottom, which as of today is unknown. It is possible that the price of Bitcoin is close to a bottom now or the bottom could be much lower. Either way, my belief is that eventually, we are most likely going to return to the long-term trend line before starting to move higher in a sustained long-term recovery. The return to the trend line, in my opinion, could happen in a couple of different ways. One way would be if the price of Bitcoin somewhat follows the red short-term trend line lower until eventually finding a bottom and making contact with the long-term trend line, in the $4000 to $5000 area. Another way I believe is possible is that if the price is already at or near a bottom and moves sideways in a consolidation phase from here until it eventually makes contact with the long-term trend line somewhere between $5000 and $8000. Still another scenario would be that the price of Bitcoin crashes from here in a very steep decline down to the trend line between $3000 and $4000, I think this scenario is very unlikely though so I would expect one of the other two to occur. I should also say that I am not blind to the fact that it is possible that none of these scenarios will come true. Who knows, the price of Bitcoin in the near future could take off higher and never come close to my long-term trend line. I try to keep an open mind and consider all of the possibilities, I also want to say that I personally don't care which scenario plays out because long-term I remain very bullish on cryptocurrencies. I believe that in a couple of years from now they will be at a much higher price than they are at today, the only question I see is in the short-term how things play out and transition into the next bull market. I really appreciate you taking the time to view my chart! Until the next one, take care! BigskyCrypto Questions or comments? Email me at info@bigskycrypto.com
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Bigsky_Crypto
6
Bitcoin - Another Comparison to the 2013/2014 Price CycleHello and thank you for taking the time to check out my charts. Once again I am taking a look at the 2013/2014 boom and correction cycle to see if I can gain some insight into how this current cycle may play out in the future. I have said this many times but it is worth repeating, the current boom and correction cycle we are going through is nothing new for Bitcoin it has been through them before and will undoubtedly see more in the future. Those calling for the death of Bitcoin are nothing new either, people have been saying Bitcoin is dead for years! So looking at the two price cycles I see some similarities, I realize that analyzing charts is somewhat subjective so others may look at the same two charts and see something completely different. Other than the fact that both price cycles peaked in December, I also see some similarities in the percentage drops to each low and also in the time distance between lows #1 and #2. Looking at the 2013/2014 chart you can see that from low #1 to low #2 is just over 2 months. When looking at the 2018 chart you can see that from low #1 to low #2 is just under 2 months. I am sure that this probably doesn't mean anything but I found it interesting. I also found interesting the similarities between the percentage drops. The percentage drop for the #1 low on each chart was as follows, 2014 - 67.5% 2018 - 69.8% . The percentage drop for the #2 low on each chart was as follows, 2014 - 65.9% 2018 - 67.7% . The percentage drop for the #3 low on each chart was as follows, 2014 - 71% 2018 - 71% (but still forming). The percentage drop for the #4 low on the 2014 chart is 76.6% , so far there is not a #4 low on the 2018 chart. The percentage drop for the #5 bottom low on the 2014 chart is 85.8% . So far BTC has not bottom yet so we do not know what the ultimate bottom percentage drop will be. I took the liberty to draw on the 2018 chart one possible scenario for the price of BTC into early next year. Obviously I have no way of knowing what BTC will do in the future but I do feel it still has a way to go before an ultimate bottom and also that there will be a months long consolidation period leading up to the next bull market. So for now all we can do is watch and be ready to load up before the next ride higher. Until the next chart, Take care! BigskyCrypto Questions or comments? Email me at info@bigskycrypto.com
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Bigsky_Crypto
6
Bitcoin - Looking for the Next Bounce AreaSo before I get started I just want to say I hope you are all having a great weekend so far. For today's chart, I decided to take a look at the bearish wave pattern Bitcoin has been forming over the last month. What I found was that both the drops and bounces I concentrated on are pretty symmetrical. I am using the 12-hour time frame and concentrating on drops lasting more than 7 candles leading up to a bounce that also lasted more than 7 candles. As you can see from the chart the first drop I identify from high to low is approximately $1600 followed by a bounce of approximately $700. Then moving to the second drop you can see that again from high to low it is also approximately $1600, once again there is a bounce lasting more than 7 candles which from low to high is around $700. So looking at the current drop Bitcoin is in the middle of if this pattern repeats a third time I would estimate a low around $5200 before there is a bounce lasting more than 7 candles (3.5 days). I realize I could be full of crap (wouldn't be the first time!) and it might just be a coincidence that the last two are so similar but what the hell lets see how this plays out! Looking at the chart I can see that Bitcoin is entering what I would classify as a pretty strong support zone from about $5800 down to $5400, so getting to my target of about $5200 without a significant bounce may be a little tough. Anyway, right or wrong I really enjoy attempting to analyze chart patterns and appreciate you taking the time to look it over. Take care! BigskyCrypto
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Bigsky_Crypto
2
BTC - Bearish Descending TriangleHello and thank you for checking out my analysis, I really do appreciate it. Before I get started I also want to say I hope everyone has a great weekend, I know I am really looking forward to it here in Lakeside, Montana. Okay, so BTC once again couldn't hold over the $6500 - $6600 resistance zone and is now retesting the $6000 level for the second time in a little over a week. For my chart this time I am looking at the daily time frame so that we can get a birds-eye view of the long-term pattern for BTC. You can also see that I have drawn in a descending triangle pattern, which for those of you who may not know is generally a bearish continuation pattern. So as a continuation pattern and because we are in a long-term down-trend the odds are that BTC will break down at some point through the bottom of the triangle. If in fact, BTC does break through the bottom of the triangle at $6000 my feeling is that it will fall much farther, in my opinion, it will most likely also break below $5000. I posted charts months ago where I said I would not be surprised to see a bottom for BTC in the $2000 to $4000 area. Obviously, this is just my opinion and in the past, I have also posted possible alternative scenarios. One possible scenario is that $6000 is the bottom and that BTC now enters a consolidation phase trading in a channel may be between $6000 and $8000 which could last several months before the next bull market. Personally, I just don’t get the feeling that BTC is going to skyrocket to new all-time highs anytime soon. I would prefer to see a nice consolidation period followed by a gradual move higher, in my opinion, that would make for a much more stable market. Here is a break down of the descending triangle from Stockcharts.com 1. Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. However, because the descending triangle is definitely a bearish pattern, the length and duration of the current trend is not as important. The robustness of the formation is paramount. 2. Lower Horizontal Line: At least 2 reaction lows are required to form the lower horizontal line. The lows do not have to be exact but should be within reasonable proximity of each other. There should be some distance separating the lows and a reaction high between them. 3. Upper Descending Trend Line: At least two reaction highs are required to form the upper descending trend line. These reaction highs should be successively lower and there should be some distance between the highs. If a more recent reaction high is equal to or greater than the previous reaction high, then the descending triangle is not valid. 4. Duration: The length of the pattern can range from a few weeks to many months, with the average pattern lasting from 1-3 months. 5. Volume: As the pattern develops, volume usually contracts. When the downside break occurs, there would ideally be an expansion of volume for confirmation. While volume confirmation is preferred, it is not always necessary. 6. Return to Breakout: A basic tenet of technical analysis is that broken support turns into resistance and vice versa. When the horizontal support line of the descending triangle is broken, it turns into resistance. Sometimes there will be a return to this newfound resistance level before the down move begins in earnest. 7. Target: Once the breakout has occurred, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and subtracting it from the resistance breakout.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Bigsky_Crypto
1
Bitcoin - June 18th Market UpdateSo we just saw a pretty nice pop higher in the price of BTC within the last 2 hours, but what does it mean? Does it mean the bottom is in for Bitcoin? Afterall we did come within $108 of the $6000 low set on Feb. 5th (Bitfinex) and it held. We have now bounced from that level but can we be sure this is the start of a new uptrend? Does it signal a time to BUY! Not for me, I will have to see much more progress than this before I start any major buying. I did sell a major portion of almost all of my positions last December and again in January so at some point I do need to start the rebuilding process. Obviously, I want to do it at the best prices possible but I am trying to be patient and not jump in too early, I am certainly not trying to catch the absolute bottom. I keep a very close eye on the markets anyway so if I see positive momentum building I may start nibbling but really the first buy trigger for me is for BTC to push above $8000 again. I should also say that I am talking about buying for long-term holding, not day or swing trading. Long-term I remain bullish on cryptos as a whole but ultimately, I would say that there are two huge steps BTC needs to make before I become very bullish in the short-term and start putting serious money back into the markets. Step #1 is to push back above and hold above $8000 again, while also regaining the 100 day SMA. Step #2 is to push back above and hold above $10,000 again, while also regaining the 200 day SMA. A bonus would be pushing back above $12,000 at which time I would become even more bullish. I have only talked about Bitcoin here because generally most of the crypto markets follow Bitcoin. Also, I want to say again that everything I am saying here is in regards to entering long-term positions. I am fairly active at also short-term trading cryptos (mostly swing trading) and will continue to do so as the opportunities present themselves, after all, it would not make any sense (at least for me) to pass up those opportunities which arise on almost a daily basis. That's all I have for now, I just wanted to share what I am thinking and a bit of my overall plan. So until the next blog post. Take care and protect your capital! BigskyCrypto Questions or comments? Email me at info@bigskycrypto.com
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Bigsky_Crypto
LTCUSD - Bearish Descending TriangleSo looking at the Litecoin chart I am also bearish in the short-term (weeks to months). Litecoin is forming a descending triangle with a base at about $110 which has held several times. There is also pretty strong support around the $100 level. The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern which would mean further downside for Litecoin. Actually, as I am writing this the price has dropped below the $110 level so we will have to see if it can regain the $110 level or if this is the start of a larger drop to the $100 level or even lower. Besides at the $100 level I see a support zone around $80 but if that does not hold I could see the price dropping to the $40 to $60 level. As I have said I will be watching closely for trading opportunities and also for opportunities to add to my long-term Litecoin holdings at discounted prices.
COINBASE:LTCUSDShort
by Bigsky_Crypto
ETCUSD - My Bearish OutlookSo from what I see Ethereum like Bitcoin is also forming a symmetrical triangle. Because I see both patterns as being very similar and the outcomes most likely similar I have just copied over most of my Bitcoin analysis. In my Bitcoin chart that I just published, I explained how In most instances, the symmetrical triangle is a continuation pattern which unfortunately would mean more downside for Ethereum. Symmetrical triangles also indicate a period of indecision in the market which plays out as a pattern that moves sideways as bulls and bears fight for dominance. As you can see by the chart we are seeing classic signs of the symmetrical triangle or contracting wedge , there is the continued tightening or coiling of the consolidation pattern along with decreasing volume as the pattern tightens and pressure builds so when the breakout does occur you can usually expect it to be accompanied by a large spike in volume . Generally, with a symmetrical triangle, the breakout will occur near the 1/2 or 3/4 point of the pattern, to me, it looks like we are very near the 3/4 point so I would say a breakout is imminent. Looking at the chart I can see pretty good support around the $500 level and if that does not hold I see even stronger support in the $400 area and then in the $300 area. Just based off what I am seeing in the chart I am bearish in the short-term (weeks or months) but remain bullish long-term (years). I will be watching the price action closely for possible trade opportunities and also for opportunities to pick up more Ethereum at discount prices to add to my long-term holdings.
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by Bigsky_Crypto
BTCUSD - Looking Very Bearish to me at Least in the Short TermSo first I should say again that longer term (years) I remain bullish on cryptocurrencies. I really believe the technologies behind them are changing our world and will continue to do so for many years to come. Having said that though in the short term (weeks or months) I have to say that the chart patterns I see on at least the major coins and tokens look pretty bearish to me. Looking at Bitcoin here what I see is a symmetrical triangle forming during a downtrend. While it is possible for the symmetrical triangle to mark important trend reversals, which in this case would mean a breakout to the upside. In most instances, though the symmetrical triangle is a continuation pattern which unfortunately would mean more downside for Bitcoin. Symmetrical triangles also indicate a period of indecision in the market which plays out as a pattern that moves sideways as bulls and bears fight for dominance. As you can see by the chart we are seeing classic signs of the symmetrical triangle or contracting wedge, there is the continued tightening or coiling of the consolidation pattern along with decreasing volume as the pattern tightens and pressure builds so when the breakout does occur you can usually expect it to be accompanied by a large spike in volume. Generally, with a symmetrical triangle, the breakout will occur near the 1/2 or 3/4 point of the pattern, to me, it looks like we are very near the 3/4 point so I would say a breakout is imminent. As far as a target price, one way to calculate it is to take the widest distance of the triangle and in the case of a breakout to the downside subtract it from the breakout point. In this case, it looks like the widest distance is about $6600 so if the breakout point was at say $7000 that would put the downside target at $400. I have to say that I just don't see that happening, I have a hard time believing that the price of Bitcoin would ever get that low. As of now I believe there is enough buying support to keep the price much higher than that. In my opinion if we do breakout to the downside and re-test the $6000 price level and this time it does not hold I could see the price dropping to maybe the $2000 to $4000 level before forming a bottom, but as of now I just don't see the price going much below that. In a chart I published at the end of March (below) I compared the current boom and correction cycle Bitcoin is going through with the boom and correction cycle that occured toward the end of 2013 and lasting through 2014. Although this correction has happened much quicker, (the 2013/2014 cycle took over a year to bottom) if we end up seeing a similar ultimate percentage drop that would put a bottom this time in the $2000 to $4000 area. An alternative and a more neutral scenario would be for Bitcoin to breakout to the downside and re-test the $6000 level which ends up holding. In this scenario I could envision a possibility where Bitcoin could create a trading channel between $6000 and say $10,000. Bitcoin would then consolidate in this range over a period of time creating a bottom before at some point starting a new bull market. In closing I would say the third but maybe more unlikely scenario is that Bitcoin does in fact breakout from this triangle to the upside. I personally would prefer this scenario and I only say it is unlikely because most symmetrical triangles play out as continuation patterns and since we have been in a downtrend the odds are to the downside. Either way as I said before longterm I still remain bullish on cryptocurrencies and look forward to the next bull market.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Bigsky_Crypto
4
Bitcoin - A Nice Move Higher but What Comes Next?Bitcoin, where are you headed next? Over the last four days, Bitcoin has made a nice move higher and after a few attempts Bitcoin finally broke out above the long-term downtrend trend line. So how important is this break above the trend line? In my opinion, it is somewhat important but does not mean it can't still go lower, Bitcoin could still reverse course and move lower and still remain above the trend line. You can see that during the 2013/2014 boom and correction cycle the price of Bitcoin interacted many times with the downtrend trend line, both above and below while still moving lower. On March 31st I published charts showing how I thought this boom and correction cycle shared similarities to the 2013/2014 boom and correction cycle. In it, I showed how if this boom and correction cycle equals the percentage drop of 2014, Bitcoin would bottom somewhere between $2000 and $4000. No matter what happens from here, it will be very interesting to watch how this correction unfolds. I look at the price action of Bitcoin lately as a start of the bottoming process, again, I'm not saying the bottom has already been made, but just that this is a start of that process. In my opinion, at some point, we will see the price of Bitcoin transition from the downtrend and into an accumulation phase, just as it did during 2014 correction. On my chart, I show a support zone from about $6000 to $6500, Bitcoin has now bounced twice from that level. I also show a resistance zone around the $9000 level, which Bitcoin is now approaching. Could this be the start of the accumulation phase? Sure, I believe it could, we could see Bitcoin move sideways from here creating a channel between $6000 and $9000. Could Bitcoin still break below $6000 and create a bottom at a lower price? Sure it could. I know, I'm sorry, I wish I could tell you with 100% certainty that $6000 was the bottom and Bitcoin will only move higher fom here but I would rather be honest with you and just share what I believe are some of the possible scenarios. So after all of that what is my outlook for cryptocurrencies? Long-term I remain bullish, my opinion is that this is just another boom and correction cycle just like Bitcoin has experienced in the past. I think this correction is just a healthy reset and after a period of accumulation (boring phase), Bitcoin along with other cryptocurrencies will enter another bull market. I have just started within the last week to make some small purchases of Bitcoin and several other cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Dash, Monero, NEO, OMG, UBIQ, CVC). My plan is to be patient because as I stated, I believe we are going to move into an accumultion phase at some point which will give me plenty of time to rebuild my positions. I really appreciate you taking the time to read my opinions and I hope you all have a great rest of your weekend. BigskyCrypto Anyone with questions or comments can also email me at: info@bigskycrypto.com
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Bigsky_Crypto
BTC - Dissecting Boom & Correction CyclesI decided to examine a previous boom & correction cycle Bitcoin has gone through to get an insight into how the price reacted over time and also to compare that cycle to the current boom and correction cycle. I was going to call the cycle’s boom & bust cycles but I don't like the word bust, my definition of bust is when something crashes and never regains its previous stature. That is like the word bubble, to me when something is in a bubble and it bursts, that's it, it never returns. Just like a real bubble when you pop it, it's gone. Right or wrong that is just how I look at it, I prefer to just say something has run up too far and is way overvalued, not in a bubble. Okay, sorry I got a little sidetracked, on with the examination. I have to say I found some interesting similarities between the two corrections. Before I start I want to add that the line chart doesn't really line up too good at times with the price scale due to very quick spikes lower that occurred on 12/18 and 2/25 which the line chart does not pick up, I am using the cursor to determine the prices for each day (high or low). Also, I am using the Bitfinex price chart. Looking at the chart we can see that BTC peaked at $1175 on 12/4/2013, it then suffered a 68% correction which it hit the low of on 12/18 ($381.50). Following that low, there was a nice bounce which peaked on 1/6/2014, but BTC could not hold those gains and the price once again dropped down to $400 on 2/25, thus re-testing the low set on 12/18. BTC bounced again but this time it was short lived and the price dropped setting a new low of $340 on 4/11. We can see that there was another bounce but then over the next several months the price slowly kept dropping until it hit a low of $166 on 1/14/2015. There was then a period of 7 months where the price was basically sideways and on 8/18/2015 the price hit $162, re-testing the low set on 1/14. Not too long after that low the price of BTC began to increase again and has not hit that low since. So from peak to the first low set on 1/14/2015 was a little over 13 months. The accumulation phase that followed I would estimate lasted over 10 months culminating with a breakout above $300 on 10/28/2015. Examining the current boom & correction we can see that BTC hit an all-time high of $19,891 on 12/17/2017 followed by a correction down to $6000 (70% drop) which it hit on 2/6/2018. Following that low, BTC had a nice bounce but could not hold the gains and again dropped to where we are today, it actually hit a low of $6533 yesterday (3/30/2018). What I find interesting but may be totally meaningless is that during the 2014 correction the time interval between the 12/18 low and the re-test on 2/25 was a little over 2 months. Now look at the current correction, we had the low set on 2/6 and we are now approaching 2 months later and may soon be witnessing the re-test of that low. Also, I find it interesting how close the percentage drops were 68% in 2013 compared to 70% this time. Again, I find these things interesting but hey I am easily amused. So where does BTC go from here? I wish I knew, if I did I could make a fortune. It will be very interesting though to see if BTC follows the 2013/2014 correction further. So just for fun lets say it does, both in time and the correction percentage. That would mean we would bottom sometime towards the end of this year or beginning of 2019. Then enter a correction phase which would last severl months before another bull market begins. Of course, another scenario could be that we see a similar percentage drop but in a shortened time frame, possibly hitting bottom in a matter of a couple of months from now say like May or June. We then enter the accumulation phase for several months then enter another bull market later this year or early in 2019.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Bigsky_Crypto
2
BTC - My Bearish OutlookOkay, this is my bearish scenario for BTC, I already published my bullish outlook. I know, these are about as polar opposite as an outlook could be but I just didn't want to publish a rainbows and unicorns view without at least showing an alternative. It is also very possible that there could be a third possibility, something in between where BTC just meanders in a more sideways pattern for an extended period (weeks or months). In my opinion for this bearish outlook to play out, several things would have to happen first. We would first have to see BTC break below my long-term trendline, followed by a drop to test the Feb. 6th low, followed by a failure of the Feb. 6th low leading to a stair-stepped drop to a support level that finally holds, followed by an extended consolidation period. I know this is a pretty dark view but I don't think it is out of the question, I like to acknowledge all possibilities.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Bigsky_Crypto
4