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Apple AAPL - Looks Fine on the Outside, but Tastes WeirdAfter last year's massive heat damage to Canada's fruit crops , there were some cherries I bought at the farmer's market from British Columbia that looked totally fine by any reasonable inspection. Whether you squeezed it, touched it, looked at it, smelled it, or cut it open, everything appeared to be fine. But once you bit into it, it had this twisted, sour sort of taste with these fungal notes that was really not particularly pleasant. I've never experienced fruit with a characteristic like that, and made me not buy any this year. Apple AAPL's price action is very much analogous to last year's heat damaged fruit. What was Apple really doing over these last two months of going up in a straight line, and coming so close, yet so far, to making a new all time high? Apparently, it was merely filling the gap left behind from March and April when everything started dumping 20 or 30 percent. Note: the gap box was created based on daily candles, which likewise formed bodies which respected the space. Frankly speaking, this is anything but bullish. An expectation that Apple is going to turn around and break $180 during the next few months is curiously unrealistic and likely to be a leading cause of margin calls and liquidations. Even at prices as low as $152, Apple is still trading at a premium inside of this multi-month dealing range. So, if price action across indexes and markets really gives us the whipsaw effect I expect this week: SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws Then Apple may very well give you a chance to fill in that August gap at $162. Many will see this as a buying opportunity, with the number $180 greedily illuminating their eyes. But the real numbers to keep an eye on is $149, and then $141, and then $133. Even if things aren't so bad for the bulls and there is no major market correction, one should really expect to see prices such as the above manifest before any further bull action, considering the fact Apple just went up in a straight line for two months with no challenge whatsoever. All of this means that, when looked at correctly, a revisitation of $162 gives a particularly pleasant short opportunity. And considering that Apple, which just keeps rehashing the same crappy phone with a really nice screen and the same super expensive desktop computer that runs OSX with a really nice monitor, more or less bolsters and drives the Nasdaq, and thereby all the languishing and floundering Big Tech meme stocks, life may not be so pleasant for those who have become fat and comfortable in the old paradigm. I've also forecasted that Tesla TSLA is also a legitimate canary in the coalmine, serving as a harbinger of the doom that lies ahead. Tesla TSLA - The Canary in the Coal Mine And that VIX is legit due to print a 72, just who knows when, exactly? VIX - 9x8 = 72 A question to bulls: why are you getting long on equities at high prices and refusing to sell at a profit when the world is in the shape it is in? Are you simply unwilling to let go of the delusion? Cash is King, and you at least need to hedge. Be careful. Gap downs today may become tomorrow's eternal losses.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by LordWrymouth
1
AAPL/USD Daily TA Cautiously BearishAAPL/USD Daily cautiously bearish. *AAPL has just experienced a Death Cross (50 MA below 200 MA). Equities and crypto are both down again, as fears of a recession are currently being amplified by low unemployment + low growth + inflation and a very hawkish (and fashionably late) Fed.* Recommended ratio: 25% AAPL, 75% Cash. Price is currently trending down after being rejected by $149 minor resistance; the next support is at $138.46. Volume remains moderate and has favored sellers in three of the past four sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $135.74, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending down at 45.39; the next support is at 35.61 and the next resistance at 57.58. Stochastic crossed over bearish in today's session and is currently trending down at 88, the next support is at 70.77. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up slightly at -3 as it is beginning to form a soft peak just below -2.36 resistance. ADX is currently trending down at 20 and is beginning to form a trough as Price is falling down after a resistance rejection; this is neutral but can switch to bearish if it can confirm a trough formation accompanied by continued Price depreciation. If Price is able to bounce here, it will likely retest $149.05 minor resistance. However, if Price continues to break down then it will likely retest $138.46 support (which may coincide with the lower trendline of the Ascending Channel from January 2019). Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $149.05.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by dailytaguy
It's a Story of the Tortoise and the Hare (IBM) 💾 As you can see, International Business Machines NYSE:IBM 💾 has been in a very long period of consolidation. Reasons why this big pennant is incredibly bullish beyond the chart. 1. IBM has everything to prove and the recent earnings beat gives support to this emerging idea of "there's no choice but to succeed". 2. It's been ugly in this bear market, but IBM has consistently resisted action to the downside and remained stalwart throughout volatile price action. 3. There is a parallel channel of support starting back in 2000 that IBM retested and held after succumbing to a 9-year downtrending channel of misery. 4. Again, IBM is sitting above a 20-year range , bounced, and it's toying with the idea of breaking out. 5. If you want a solid dividend with tech exposure, this 4.76% dividend yield is generous. Don't sit on this trade before a break to the upside occurs and you're buying above 150-160. When Big Blue does breakout to the upside, 250-300 is an easy target into 2023-2024 . PLEASE NOTE : For this trade to work, it is imperative for our friends at Internal Business Machines to produce some headlines and reasons for major Wall Street buyers to step in. Enjoy! Zach B.
NYSE:IBMLong
by zwburger
AAPL/USD Daily TA Neutral BullishAAPL/USD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. *With China loosening their Covid-19 restrictions/lockdowns and planning QE (via a digital Yuan airdrop ) in the coming weeks, fears regarding supply chain constraints' potential negative effect on Apple product demand for their next market cycle is starting to subside. Additionally, Apple announced a new $90b share buyback program and a dividend increase of 7% . However, Big Tech is not out of the rubble yet so it's a bit premature to get too bullish at the moment.* Recommended ratio: 60% AAPL, 40% Cash. Price is currently testing $149.05 minor resistance (which is also the largest supply/demand zone on record) as the 50 MA is on the verge of crossing below the 200 MA (which would form a Death Cross); it should be noted that even though the 50 MA is so close to crossing over, it is a lagging indicator and therefore can reject the crossover at the very last second. Volume remains high (moderate) and is currently on track to break a three day streak of buyer dominance if it can close today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $133; this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 48, just below 57.58 resistance; the next support is at 35.61. Stochastic remains bullish at 98 and is currently on the verge of testing max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -4.36 after bouncing off of the ATL at -6.69; the next resistance is at -2.36. ADX is currently trending down at 23.71 as Price is surging, this indicates that either a temporary retracement or a trend reversal is underway and is thus mildly bullish. If Price is able to flip $149.05 minor resistance to support, then the next likely target is a test of $157.42 resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely increase the odds of a Death Cross significantly and have Price retest $138.46 support (which would coincide with the lower trendline of the channel from January 2019). Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $146.82.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by dailytaguy
PLTR/USD Daily TA Cautiously BullishPLTR/USD Daily cautiously bullish. *It's become rather apparent that even after an 85% drop from its ATH, investors still aren't done selling . Taking a closer look at their financials and it's clear that they are a tech growth company that intends to be here for a while but face the reality that they may be operating in a high interest rate environment for a year or more. Financials summary: negative income since going public due to arguably egregious spending on Selling/General/Admin Expenses (that exceed Gross Profit which is $1.20b); Shareholder Equity is at $3.32b as of Q1 2022 and they have maintained minimal debt since IPO; lastly, they started producing Free Cash Flow last year in their fourth year being publicly traded and continued to do so in Q1 2022. So even though they have a healthy balance sheet and are generating positive cash flow, growth companies are often faded in favor of value companies in rising/higher interest rate environments, which helps to explain a lot of the negative sentiment.* Recommended ratio: 65% PLTR, 35% cash. Price is currently retesting $8.52 minor resistance after bouncing from the lower trendline of the descending channel from November 2020. Volume remains moderate (low) and fairly balanced between buyers and sellers as of late but is currently favoring buyers for two consecutive sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $7.13, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 42.48 but is still technically testing the uptrend line from 01/27/22 as resistance at ~40; if it can continue surging, the next resistance is at 46.81. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently trending up slightly at 93 as it tests 89.92 resistance; the next resistance is max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -0.90 as it quickly approaches -0.81 resistance. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 39 as Price is attempting to establish a short term bottom, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to break out above $8.52 minor resistance, the next likely target is a test of $10.44 minor resistance. However, if it gets rejected here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from November 2020 as support at ~$7.31 before potentially heading lower. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $7.39.
NYSE:PLTR
by dailytaguy
TWLO/USD Daily TA Neutral BullishTWLO/USD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. *Twilio has fallen 81% from its ATH ($457.65) and is approaching the end of a massive Falling Wedge from March 2021.* Recommended ratio: 55% TWILIO, 45% cash. Price is currently testing the lower trendline of the Falling Wedge from March 2021 at $100.65 support. Volume has been shrinking since early May as Price trades within the second largest supply/demand zone on the chart; this is mildly bullish as it is indicative of an incoming breakout (due to it being a Falling Wedge the bias is to the upside). Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $105, this is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 40 as it continues testing 37.47 support for the sixth consecutive session. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 85; the next resistance is at max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up slightly at -10; the next likely target is a test of the descending trendline from May 2020 at -4.57 resistance. ADX is currently trending sideways at 33 as Price is attempting to establish support at $100, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to defend $100.65 support then the next likely target is a test of the upper trendline of the Falling Wedge at $120-$125 (this is also the largest supply/demand zone on the chart) before potentially breaking out of the formation to the upside. However, if Price breaks down below the lower trendline of the Falling Wedge at $92.60, the next likely target is a test of $70 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $95.50.
NYSE:TWLO
by dailytaguy
long term logarithmic growth fan pattern horizontal supportthe gann fan and log view with broadening wedge indicates stock is trending toward long term support. if we cant close over the 4/1 monthly its probably headed for that lower trendline. were at horizontal support so a bounce starting here would probably head for the 2424 area. closing above the mid 2400s and we could head for 2988 where TRAMA is currently hanging out. if 2050 breaks it could go as low as 1785 but its much more likely we see a monthly bounce soon.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by cerealpatterns
AMZN Back to 1300, Nasdaq Back to 7000Back at the end of 2018, I made an attempt to call a longer term bear market for big tech. Linked below are some of those posts. I was new to markets, and all I did was look at the chart. Even back then, the charts for Apple and Amazon looked ridiculous, but now it's undeniable that they've seen parabolic growth. This is the AMZN chart zoomed further in, where you can see how I was dead wrong at the end of 2018, as the money printer and QE kicked in again, taking the market to new highs shortly before the pandemic hit. Then, the pandemic hit and the Fed exhausted the last of its firepower. Will they save the market again? Above, I marked the 1600 and 1300 levels as areas of support, should the current level fail. Also shown on my Amazon chart is the long term uptrend, which has now been broken and confirmed as resistance. I expect markets to fall back to pre-stimulus levels, as the 2021 rally was largely "fake." Even though some of these companies may continue to remain profitable, I think some disappointing earnings will start to trickle in, signaling a depressing outlook for growth in the near future. Take Netflix, for example. It's already getting closer to testing some of those earlier levels. Perhaps it's a "canary in the coal mine" situation. What's especially concerning is that even companies that have exceeded expectations (like Tesla) cannot sustain a rally. Look at that earnings pump and dump: This implies that market participants are exiting regardless, and booking profits after many years of easy economic policy. Now here's something truly hilarious. Elon Musk and Bill Gates claim to be shorting each other's companies! What happens in this scenario? They both still profit. Billionaires are just playing games. Here are some levels marked for Tesla. If Elon continues to innovate and do well, TSLA may not drop quite as much as some others, but that's still a lot of profit on the table. He's even sold some of his own shares himself: And Microsoft: Why Would the Fed Just Let It Happen? The easiest way to fix inflation is perhaps to just simply let things unwind. As big corporations lose profits, smaller businesses close, and people lose their jobs, their homes...a big financial crunch occurs that shocks the living daylights out of our systems. New solutions will need to be found, some of which may seem obvious, such as taxing the wealthy and corporations much more heavily. Some we haven't even dreamt of yet. Here's a speculation: Community living becomes more desirable, and new small businesses will need to emerge to tailer to those communities. A world owned by corporations already causes pressure on communities and small businesses, where your boss is forced into implementing oppressive working conditions to stay afloat. All the while, your next door neighbor begins trading Dogecoin and digital images to finally have a glimpse at paying off his debt or buying a home. It's an escape into a black void that consumes your soul, and the soul of society. Ready for the collapse? Let's see what happens. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only. -Victor Cobra
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by VictorCobra
15
The Bears Come For Google Well, well, well, this is precisely what I was talking about in my post about big tech. This is just a short post, showing some levels. These overheated stocks are finally getting a taste of profit-taking. Netflix managed to actually break below its 200 week moving average. If Google does the same, another 50%+ drop is possible. On the conservative side, Google can simply head towards the 200 MA and bounce. However, I really think there are some people sitting on enormous profits that have yet to start realizing those gains. Let's see! Will GOOGLE tank another 50-80% from here? I am of the general opinion that markets will need to return to pre-COVID levels (at best) in order to correct current inflation, and in order for the economy to begin sorting itself out with significant policy change. This is because the market has largely been propped up due to money printing and QE. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not financial advice. -Victor Cobra
NASDAQ:GOOGShort
by VictorCobra
3
NASDAQ Bubble Bust DXY CorrelationThe market peaked in Nov and is in Bubble-Bust-Mode. DXY is breaking out upwards from a multi-year consolidation. Looking back to the DotCom Bubble and comparing NASDAQ to DXY, DXY broke out near the equity peak and reached its peak when NASDAQ was near bottom of the crash. It's not a perfect correlation in shorter time-frames, but close enough that it may be useful on the macro time-frame. If the current Asset/Big-Tech Bubble rhymes with history, look for DXY to continue upward into 110-120 range or higher over the next year or so as NASDAQ plummets back down to reality, e.g. somewhere around the 200 Month Moving Average. Then whenever DXY is crashing back down towards ~100 that may be a good signal that the bottom is in for equities.
TVC:IXIC
by RobBiddle