Crude OilWhen hit the blue line (that show candle with low fractal below the alligator) go to short order. And AO,AC Williams have red bars, that confirms the short deal
Bill Williams Indicators
PYPL Update: What Does An Upside Breakout Look Like?I published a chart for-PYPL on September 8, 2016. I listed reasons for an upside breakout. Here is what I wrote.
I am always looking for chart breakouts -up or down.
Please consider the chart of-PYPL.
1. Buy Fractals.
2. CHOP line (below chart) sinking out of the shaded area, below 38.2, indicating a new TREND.
3. CHOP ZONE, below CHOP, is green, indicating up trend.
4. The alligator, YOUR COMPASS, is feeding in the uptrend.
5. The Ichimoku Cloud (black) base line and (red) conversion line are both rising.
6. Prices are above both of these lines.
7. The three indicators on top are very strong. End of recap.
Today PYPL-broke-out to the upside.
This was forecast on 10-17-2016 by all three top indicators, especially the lower top which reversed at the zero line.
The lower top indicator is a forward projection. For an estimation of possible FORWARD TRENDING I use the Ichimoku Cloud Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line + Base Line)/2)). This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the faster Cloud boundary. I then make an oscillator out of this and plot the progress up and down around a “zero line”.
I HAVE THE RESULTS OF THESE CALCULATIONS FOR-PYPL IN THE TOP LOWER INDICATOR.
IT IS VERY STRONG AND HAS BEEN FOR ALL OF SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER.
When a stock stays on the top fringe of a forward indicator,
the chances are high that the stock (or asset) is under accumulation (because the insiders know something good that you don't know).
If this line remains on the top for extended periods of time, the price of the stock/ asset will usually rise.
Since I last wrote about PYPL-it had all of the classic signs of an accumulating stock.
May all of your trades go well. Don.
VWO: Emerging Markets ETF, Equity Weakness Worldwide?Part 3. Three days ago I published Parts 1 and 2 for the-S&P and-IWM. (2,500 stocks total).
I wanted to share with you the emerging markets.
In my opinion they are weak, trend-less with a downward bias, and the risk/ reward ratio is to the down side.
VWO-is an ETF consisting of shares in the following countries:
China 23.23%
Taiwan, Province of China 15.35%
India 12.12%
Brazil 8.57%
South Africa 7.42%
Hong Kong 5.80%
Mexico 4.46%
Malaysia 3.92%
Russian Federation 3.91%
Thailand 2.99%
Kind of looks like the-S&P-500, doesn't it? This is an extremely difficult market in which you will find winning stocks .
You have to be very good to select the end of the draw-down periods and go long in the winners.
The rotation into and out of stock groups has been fast and furious. As for-VWO:
Let's put it this way, your upside gain is 1% to 2%, down-side 10%-15% +. This is not a good risk/ reward ratio.
Here are eleven negatives I see in-VWO, and why I feel this is a sell:
1. Sell Fractal in effect.
2. Alligator jaws NOW OPENING in tandem with sell Fractals. Alligator feeding in new down-trend. THIS IS YOUR DIRECTIONAL COMPASS.
3. Chop indicator (under chart) is ENTERING the shaded area.
4. Forward Ichimoku leading span (lower top indicator) is below the zero line. **
5. 34 day moving average (top indicator)-is bearish .
6. Prices are trading into the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
9. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This is a sell signal.
10. The Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal .
11. The CHOP ZONE indicator (under chart) is red, indicating a down trend.
** The lower top indicator is a forward projection as follows: For an estimation of possible FORWARD TRENDING I use the Ichimoku Cloud Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line + Base Line)/2)). This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the faster Cloud boundary. I then make an oscillator out of this and plot the progress up and down around a “zero line”.
I HAVE THE RESULTS OF THESE CALCULATIONS FOR-VWO IN THE TOP LOWER INDICATOR. IT IS VERY NEGATIVE.
I see very soft markets in the United States, Europe, and, emerging markets around the world.
My advice: because of severe rotation, it's hard to follow trend. I recommend long positions only after draw-downs to support levels.
If you do not do this you increase your chances of a loss.
I hope this has been helpful. May all of your trades go well. Don.
Having Trouble Picking Winners? Here Is Why: IWM Has Rolling TopPart Two. The Rullell-2000-as shown by-IWM. Kind of looks like the-S&P-500, doesn't it?
This is an extremely difficult market in which you will find winning stocks .
The-Russell-2000 (as measured by-IWM) has gone sideways.
You have to be very good to select the end of the draw-down periods and go long in the winners.
The rotation into and out of stock groups has been fast and furious. As for-IWM:
I detect a bearish AB=CD harmonic pattern . This, combined with very negative indicators, are warning signs of a break to the down side.
In all fairness to you, I have been expecting a draw-down for six months, yet we continue to move side-ways.
Let's put it this way, your upside gain is 1% to 2%, down-side 10%-15% +. This is not a good risk/ reward ratio.
Here are ONE DOZEN negatives I see in-IWM, and why I feel this is a sell:
1. Sell Fractal in effect.
2. Alligator jaws NOW OPENED in tandem with sell Fractals. Alligator feeding in new down-trend. THIS IS YOUR DIRECTIONAL COMPASS.
3. Chop indicator (under chart) is ENTERING the shaded area.
4. Forward Ichimoku leading span (lower top indicator) is below the zero line. **
5. 34 day moving average (top indicator)-is bearish .
6. Prices are trading into the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal .
8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal .
9. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This is a sell signal.
10. The red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal .
11. The Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
12. The CHOP ZONE indicator (under chart) is red, indicating a down trend.
** The lower top indicator is a forward projection as follows: For an estimation of possible FORWARD TRENDING I use the Ichimoku Cloud Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line + Base Line)/2)). This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the faster Cloud boundary. I then make an oscillator out of this and plot the progress up and down around a “zero line”.
I HAVE THE RESULTS OF THESE CALCULATIONS FOR-IWM IN THE TOP LOWER INDICATOR. IT IS VERY NEGATIVE.
As I write this the futures are strong, indicating an up day. But don't be fooled.
Between the-SPY and-IWM you have 2,500 picks. Yet most money managers and hedge fund managers are down for the year.
I feel we have the setup for an-IWM market decline. To be fore-warned is to be fore-armed.
I hope that all of your trades go well. Don.
Having Trouble Picking Winners? Here Is Why: S&P Has Rolling TopThis is an extremely difficult market in which you will find winning stocks.
The-S&P 500 (as measured by-SPY) has gone sideways for 18 months.
You have to be very good to select the end of the draw-down periods and go long in the winners.
The rotation into and out of stock groups has been fast and furious. As for-SPY:
I detect a bearish AB=CD harmonic pattern. This, combined with very negative indicators, are warning signs of a break to the down side.
In all fairness to you, I have been expecting a draw-down for six months, yet we continue to move side-ways.
Let's put it this way, your upside gain is 1% to 2%, down-side 10% +. This is not a good risk/ reward ratio.
Here are ONE DOZEN negatives I see in-SPY, and why I feel this is a sell :
1. Sell Fractal in effect.
2. Alligator jaws NOW OPENED in tandem with sell Fractals. Alligator feeding in new down-trend. THIS IS YOUR DIRECTIONAL COMPASS.
3. Chop indicator (under chart) is ENTERING the shaded area.
4. Forward Ichimoku leading span (lower top indicator) is below the zero line. **
5. 34 day moving average (top indicator)-is bearish .
6. Prices are trading into the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal .
8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
9. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This is a sell signal.
10. The red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
11. The Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
12. The CHOP ZONE indicator (under chart) is red, indicating a down trend.
** The lower top indicator is a forward projection as follows: For an estimation of possible FORWARD TRENDING I use the Ichimoku Cloud Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line + Base Line)/2)). This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the faster Cloud boundary. I then make an oscillator out of this and plot the progress up and down around a “zero line”.
I HAVE THE RESULTS OF THESE CALCULATIONS FOR-SPY IN THE TOP LOWER INDICATOR. IT IS VERY NEGATIVE.
As I write this the-S&P futures are strong, indicating an up day. But don't be fooled.
I feel we have the setup for an-S&P market decline. To be fore-warned is to be fore-armed.
I hope that all of your trades go well. Don.
National TV Alert: Caveat Emptor: Buyer Beware For CMESometimes I see stocks recommended on national TV coverage and I would bet that people rush out and buy on these "tips".
I watched as-CME was recommended. I just couldn't think of any reasons why.
CAVEAT EMPTOR is a Latin phrase that means:
"The principle that the buyer alone is responsible for checking the quality and suitability of goods before a purchase is made."
If you are considering-CME, here is what I ask you to consider:
Here are ONE DOZEN negatives I see in-CME, and why I feel this is a sell:
1. Sell Fractal in effect (red rectangle on chart).
2. Alligator jaws NOW OPENED in tandem with sell Fractals. Alligator feeding in new down-trend. THIS IS YOUR DIRECTIONAL COMPASS.
3. Chop indicator (under chart) is below the 38.2 shaded area. This indicates a strong down trend.
4. Phase energy (lower top indicator) is below the zero line. **
5. 34 day moving average (top indicator)-is bearish .
6. Prices are trading into the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
9. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This is a sell signal.
10. The red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
11. The Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
12. The CHOP ZONE indicator (under chart) is red, indicating a down trend.
** The lower top indicator is a forward projection as follows: For an estimation of possible FORWARD TRENDING I use the Ichimoku Cloud Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line + Base Line)/2)). This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the faster Cloud boundary. I then make an oscillator out of this and plot the progress up and down around a “zero line”.
I HAVE THE RESULTS OF THESE CALCULATIONS FOR-CME IN THE TOP LOWER INDICATOR.
IT IS VERY NEGATIVE.
The same person would recommended CME-yesterday also recommended GDX-one day before is dropped 15% in one day.
Do I see an upside reversal for-CME? No, I do not.
Conclusions: CAVEAT EMPTOR - LET THE BUYER BEWARE.
I hope all of your trades go well. Don.
Trending Now: TTMI, Daily, Rules Of Engagement, Part 1A stock that shows strength in a daily interval is one that will usually keep climbing, even in market turbulence. Examine-TTMI.
TTM-Technologies, Inc. is a manufacturer of printed circuit board (PCB) products and is focused on technologically advanced PCBs and electro-mechanical solutions (E-M Solutions). The Company operates approximately 30 specialized facilities in the United States, the People's Republic of China (China), Canada and Mexico.
Look at your stock/ asset portfolio and determine if any of your holdings suffered severe technical damage in market declines.
It really isn't a stock market , it's a market of stocks . Strong stocks are worth investing in.
There are strong stocks . One such stock is-TTMI.
From a technical standpoint, Here are the positives:
1. Currently multiple buy Fractals.
2. The green shaded area below CHOP is the CHOP ZONE. This has been strong (up) since early July.
3. The alligator is feeding in the uptrend.
4. Prices are trading above the Ichimoku Cloud .
5. Prices are trading above the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line.
6. Prices are trading above the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud and this has been HEADING HIGHER.
7. The Forward Momentum indicator (top middle) is strong. **
8. The Ichimoku Cloud is rising.
9. The moving average trend line is rising.
In my opinion, TTMI-is in a solid uptrend. Very strong. I would hesitate to throw the baby out with the bath water....
(a.k.a. sell everything just because the broad market declined).
** For an estimation of possible FORWARD TRENDING I use the Ichimoku Cloud Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line + Base Line)/2)). This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the faster Cloud boundary. I then make an oscillator out of this and plot the progress up and down around a “zero line”. Currently the forward projection is strong, in the top of the zone.
I HAVE THE RESULTS OF THESE CALCULATIONS IN THE TOP LOWER INDICATOR.
These are some of the Rules of Engagement for a daily chart. I will now show you what this looks like on a 30 minute chart.
Please go to TTMI-Part 2. Don.
BTCUSD Update: Trendless Since Labor DayThis is an update from a week ago. Not much has changed. No trend.
Negatives:
1. Last valid sell Sell Fractal was Sept 13th.
2. Your compass for direction, the alligator, is sleeping.
3. CHOP is ABOVE the shaded area. This predicts NO trend.
4. CHOP ZONE is green, white, green, indicating no trend.
5. Prices are trading at the Ichimoku Cloud .
6. Prices are at the red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line.
7. Prices are at the Ichimoku Cloud baseline.
8. The 5/34 MACD (top) has a bearish cross. Histogram within is falling.
9. The phase energy (top lower) is red-green-red. Trend-less.
10. The forward price projection (top middle) is neutral to slightly bearish.
11. Ichimoku Cloud has red border.
Positives:
1. NONE TO REPORT.
Support is last swing low at $592.10.
Want odds? 75% odds down (because of the sell Fractal), 25% odds up or sideways. There is no trend that I can detect.
Good luck to you in all your trades. Don.
GDX Update: Bear Trend In Effect, Stromger Than 48 Hours AgoThis is an update from 48 hours ago, a chart I published on-GDX.
I thought this was necessary because I watched as-GDX was recommended on national cable television today.
I strongly disagree.
Here are ONE DOZEN negatives I see in-GDX, and why I feel this-ETF is a sell:
1. Sell Fractals in effect (red rectangle on chart).
2. Alligator jaws NOW OPENED in tandem with sell Fractals. Alligator feeding in new down-trend. THIS IS YOUR DIRECTIONAL COMPASS.
3. Chop indicator (under chart) is well above the 38.2 shaded area. This indicates a ZERO trend and, at best, sloppy action with a downward bias.
4. Phase energy (lower top indicator) is below the zero line. Tried to rally with an upside cross of the zero line, BUT FAILED
5. DMI-top indicator-is bearish . NEW NEGATIVE CROSS (red over green). This is a sell signal.
6. Prices are trading UNDER the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
9. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This is a sell signal .
9. The red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal .
10. The Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
11. The CHOP ZONE indicator (under chart) is red, indicating a down trend.
12. The middle top indicator is a forward projection as follows: For an estimation of possible FORWARD TRENDING I use the Ichimoku Cloud Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line + Base Line)/2)). This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the faster Cloud boundary. I then make an oscillator out of this and plot the progress up and down around a “zero line”.
I HAVE THE RESULTS OF THESE CALCULATIONS FOR-GDX IN THE TOP MIDDLE INDICATOR.
IT IS VERY NEGATIVE, AND HAS GOTTEN MORE BEARISH IN THE PAST 48 HOURS, MOVING FURTHER DOWNWARDS.
Do I see an upside reversal for-GDX? No, I do not. In fact, the chart for-GDX has gotten weaker.
Good luck to you in all your trades. Don.
DAX Update: Technical Weakness, Bearish TrendUpdate from 4 days ago-DAX.
1. Sell Fractals in effect (red rectangle on chart).
2. Alligator jaws CLOSED in tandem with sell Fractals. Alligator sleeping for now. THIS IS YOUR DIRECTIONAL COMPASS.
3. Chop indicator (under chart) is well above the 38.2 shaded area. This indicates a ZERO trend and, at best, sloppy action with a downward bias.
4. Phase energy (lower top indicator) is below the zero line. Note downward trend.
5. MACD-top indicator-is bearish . NEW NEGATIVE CROSS. This is a sell signal.
6. Prices are trading into the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal .
8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
9. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This is a sell signal.
9. The red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal .
10. The Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
11. The CHOP ZONE indicator (under chart) is red, indicating a down trend.
12. The middle top indicator is a forward projection for 9 days of the Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. Readings below the zero line are negative.
The-DAX bounced off of its 233 day moving average (233 is a Fibonacci number ). This is an action/ inflection point.
EWG-the I-Shares for the-DAX, has been unable to get above $27.60. There were three failures at this level. This is-DAX 11,425.
A 50% retracement is 10,004. This is a logical downside target. If this holds, AND A RALLY BEGINS FROM 10,004,
there is massive over-head supply from structure to the left. In my opinion the-DAX will remain weak.
Good luck to you in all your trades. Don.
GDX: Update, Bearish Conditions Still In EffectUPDATE: Here are ONE DOZEN negatives I see in-GDX, and why I feel this-ETF is a sell:
1. Sell Fractals in effect (red rectangle on chart).
2. Alligator jaws CLOSED in tandem with sell Fractals. Alligator sleeping for now. THIS IS YOUR DIRECTIONAL COMPASS.
3. Chop indicator (under chart) is well above the 38.2 shaded area. This indicates a ZERO trend and, at best, sloppy action with a downward bias.
4. Phase energy (lower top indicator) is below the zero line. Trying to rally with an upside cross of the zero line.
5. DMI-top indicator-is bearish. NEW NEGATIVE CROSS (red over green). This is a sell signal.
6. Prices are trading UNDER the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
9. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This is a sell signal.
9. The red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line direction is heading lower. This is a sell signa l.
10. The Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
11. The CHOP ZONE indicator (under chart) is red, indicating a down trend.
12. The middle top indicator is a forward projection as follows: For an estimation of possible FORWARD TRENDING I use the Ichimoku Cloud Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line + Base Line)/2)). This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the faster Cloud boundary. I then make an oscillator out of this and plot the progress up and down around a “zero line”.
I HAVE THE RESULTS OF THESE CALCULATIONS FOR-GDX IN THE TOP MIDDLE INDICATOR. IT IS VERY NEGATIVE.
Do I see an upside reversal for-GDX? No, I do not. Good luck to you in all your trades. Don.
Piper Jaffary: Look For Entry Points During Market WeaknessLook at your stock/ asset portfolio and determine if any of your holdings suffered severe technical damage in market declines.
It really isn't a stock market, it's a market of stocks. Strong stocks are worth investing in.
There are strong stocks. One such stock is-PJC.
From a technical standpoint, Here are the positives:
1. Currently multiple buy Fractals (highlighted in green box).
2. The green shaded area below CHOP is the CHOP ZONE. This has been strong (up) since early July.
3. The top lower indicator is phase energy, and this is positive. Very strong.
4. The alligator is feeding in the uptrend.
5. DMI-top indicator-is strong.
6. Prices are trading above the Ichimoku Cloud .
7. Prices are trading above the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line.
8. Prices are trading above the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud and this has been HEADING HIGHER.
9. The Forward Momentum indicator (top middle) is strong. **
10. The Ichimoku Cloud is rising.
11. The moving average trend line is rising.
In my opinion, PJC-is in a solid uptrend. Very strong. I would hesitate to throw the baby out with the bath water....
(a.k.a. sell everything just because the broad market declined).
** For an estimation of possible FORWARD TRENDING I use the Ichimoku Cloud Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line + Base Line)/2)). This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the faster Cloud boundary. I then make an oscillator out of this and plot the progress up and down around a “zero line”. Currently the forward projection is strong, in the top of the zone.
I HAVE THE RESULTS OF THESE CALCULATIONS IN THE TOP MIDDLE INDICATOR.
Good luck to you. Don.
GDX: Update, Bearish Conditions Still In EffectHere are ONE DOZEN negatives I see in-GDX, and why I feel this-ETF is a sell:
1. Sell Fractal in effect (red rectangle on chart).
2. Alligator jaws opened in tandem with sell Fractals. Alligator feeding in down-trend. THIS IS YOUR DIRECTIONAL COMPASS.
3. Chop indicator (under chart) is well above the 38.2 shaded area. This indicates a ZERO trend and, at best, sloppy action with a downward bias.
4. Phase energy (lower top indicator) is below the zero line.
5. DMI-top indicator-is bearish.
6. Prices are trading UNDER the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
9. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This is a sell signal .
9. The red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
10. The Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
11. The CHOP ZONE indicator (under chart) is red, indicating a down trend.
12. The middle top indicator is a forward projection as follows: For an estimation of possible FORWARD TRENDING I use the Ichimoku Cloud Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line + Base Line)/2)). This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the faster Cloud boundary. I then make an oscillator out of this and plot the progress up and down around a “zero line”. Currently the forward projection is VERY WEAK.
I HAVE THE RESULTS OF THESE CALCULATIONS FOR-GDX IN THE TOP MIDDLE INDICATOR. IT IS VERY NEGATIVE.
Based on the above 12 indicators, I feel GDX-is heading lower. Good luck to you in your trades. Don.
GBPAUD: Bearish Outlook, Selling Should Gain MomentumNegatives:
1. Last valid sell Sell Fractal was August 16th.
2. Your compass for direction, the alligator, is feeding in a down trend.
3. CHOP is almost BELOW the shaded area. This predicts a trend.
4. CHOP ZONE is red, indicating a downward bias.
5. Prices are trading below the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
6. Prices are below the red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This is a sell signal.
7. Prices are below the Ichimoku Cloud baseline. This is a sell signal.
8. The-DMI (top) has a bearish cross. This is a sell signal .
9. The phase energy (top lower) is steadily falling, and it is below the zero line. NOW HAS A DOWN-WARD BREAK. This is a sell signal.
10. Ichimoku Cloud has red border.
11. Trend-line is heading lower.
Positives:
1. NONE TO REPORT.
For an estimation of possible FORWARD TRENDING I use the Ichimoku Cloud Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line + Base Line)/2)). This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the faster Cloud boundary. I then make an oscillator out of this and plot the progress up and down around a “zero line”. Currently the forward projection is VERY WEAK.
I HAVE THE RESULTS OF THESE CALCULATIONS FOR-GBPAUD IN THE TOP MIDDLE INDICATOR.
AS YOU CAN SEE, THE FORWARD PROJECTION IS HEADING DOWN TOWARDS THE ZERO LINE.
Note: DMI-top and phase energy (bottom) already have negative crosses. These usually lead the forward projection because they are faster indicators.
A four hour chart looks even more NEGATIVE.
So, I feel-GBPAUD will be heading LOWER.
Good luck to you in all your trades. Don.
DAX: Bearish Divergences Abound In Current Rally, Retest 10,262?Part 1 of 2. Part 2 will be the I-Shares-chart for Belgium (to compare strong vs weak charts).
Yes, the-DAX had a strong rally from mid-July to mid-August.
On 09-16-2016 the-DAX low was 10,262.19.
The rally since then has been weak and not nearly as robust at the previous up move.
Negatives:
1. Last valid sell Sell Fractal was Sept 16th at 10,262.19.
2. Your compass for direction, the alligator, is directionless, JAWS CLOSED.
3. CHOP is in the shaded area. This predicts NO TREND.
4. Prices are trading into the Ichimoku Cloud .
5. Prices are mostly below the Ichimoku Cloud baseline.
Positives:
1. Prices are ABOVE the red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line.
2. The-DMI (top indicator) is positive, but the strength is only half of the August rally.
3. The phase energy (top lower) is steadily rising, but BELOW ZERO. It has a downward bias (arrow).
4. No Buy Fractal during rally.
5. The FORWARD PROJECTION (top middle) was strong in August, but VERY WEAK today.
For an estimation of possible FORWARD TRENDING I use the Ichimoku Cloud Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line + Base Line)/2)). This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the faster Cloud boundary. I then make an oscillator out of this and plot the progress up and down around a “zero line”. Currently the forward projection is VERY NEGATIVE.
I HAVE THE RESULTS OF THESE CALCULATIONS FOR THE-DAX IN THE TOP MIDDLE INDICATOR. AS YOU CAN SEE, THE FORWARD PROJECTION IS LOWER.
A four hour chart looks slightly more positive, but there are the same negative divergences.
So, I feel the-DAX will be heading lower.
The next chart I publish will be for Belgium. I am doing this so you can compare a strong chart (Belgium) to a weaker one-DAX.
Good luck to you in all your trades. Don.
USDJPY: Possible Trend Reversal With Bullish BAT ?There are faint signs that the down-trend in-USDJPY may reverse. First, here are the technicals:
Negatives:
1. Last valid sell Sell Fractal was Sept 21th.
2. Your compass for direction, the alligator, is feeding weakly in a down trend, BUT JAWS ARE CLOSING.
3. CHOP is in the shaded area. This predicts NO TREND.
4. CHOP ZONE is red, indicating a downward bias.
5. Prices are trading below the Ichimoku Cloud .
6. Prices are below the Ichimoku Cloud baseline.
7. Ichimoku Cloud has red border.
Positives:
1. Prices are ABOVE the red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line.
2. The 5/34 MACD (top) has a BULLISH cross. Histogram within is RISING.
3. The phase energy (top lower) is steadily RISING.
4. BULLISH BAT.
5. Buy Fractal at 101.247.
For an estimation of possible FORWARD TRENDING I use the Ichimoku Cloud Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line + Base Line)/2)). This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the faster Cloud boundary. I then make an oscillator out of this and plot the progress up and down around a “zero line”. Currently the forward projection in starting to move upwards ever so slightly.
I HAVE THE RESULTS OF THESE CALCULATIONS IN THE TOP MIDDLE INDICATOR.
Will USDJPY-reverse trend and head higher? Who knows? All I am trying to show is the set-up is very favorable for this to happen.
The best of luck to you in all your trades. Don.
BTCUSD Update: Bearish Trend Building Its Downward Momentum Negatives:
1. Last valid sell Sell Fractal was Sept 13th.
2. Your compass for direction, the alligator, is feeding weakly in a down trend.
3. CHOP is almost BELOW the shaded area. This predicts a trend.
4. CHOP ZONE is red, indicating a downward bias.
5. Prices are trading below the Ichimoku Cloud .
6. Prices are below the red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line.
7. Prices are below the Ichimoku Cloud baseline.
8. The 5/34 MACD (top) has a bearish cross. Histogram within is falling.
9. The phase energy (top lower) is steadily falling, and it is still below the zero line. NOW HAS A DOWN-WARD BREAK.
10. The-DMI (top middle) has the dominant direction as down (red line over green), and the black line is rising. This means more strength in SELLING.
11. Ichimoku Cloud has red border.
Positives:
1. NONE TO REPORT.
Support is last swing low at $594.63.
Want odds? 92% odds down (because of the sell Fractal, down alligator direction, lower-DMI, lower phase energy),
8% odds up/ sideways (CHOP VERY NEAR indicating trend).
What to look for: if there is to be a breakout move lower, CHOP should start falling (lower in the shaded area,
THEN OUT OF SHADED AREA) to confirm the trend.
Another indication of trend is-DMI (top middle). Currently-DMI has a strong negative bias.
Note: DMI-indicates trend. CHOP indicates trend. From my own experience, CHOP is more reliable as a trend tool, but-DMI reacts faster.
This is why I use both.
There are PLENTY OF NEGATIVES AND NO POSITIVES on this three hour chart.
The daily chart should be used to confirm. (Naturally, the daily moves more slowly).
In my opinion, use tight stops if you are long. I would not short until a breach of $594.63.
Good luck to you in all your trades. Don.
Seattle Genetics: Rules And Disciplines That Will Help You WinWhat determines whether or not I take a position, up or down, in a stock , commodity, or futures contract?
WHAT IS THE SINGLE BIGGEST FACTOR THAT I SHOULD KNOW?
To me the answer is simple. Is what I am reviewing "TRENDING" or "RANGE BOUND"?
I need to know if a stock or commodity is trending. Why? RANGE BOUND assets are very hard to make money, long or short.
Let's look at-Seattle-Genetics, a biotechnology company focused on the development and commercialization of therapies for the treatment of cancer.
Is-SGEN TRENDING? Yes. How do I know?
Several things tell me. The buy Fractals (in rectangle). The rising Ichimoku Cloud . The rising trend-line. The Alligator is feeding in the up trend.
IMPORTANT: to determine the STRENGTH of the trend I use CHOP, (lower indicator below chart). The lower the red line the stronger the trend.
The higher the red line the more likely I will see "choppiness", or range bound trading. (It is harder to make money with lots of chop).
Right now CHOP tells me-SGEN has a trend, the trend is very strong (it is below the shaded area).
The dashed line is the price trend in CHOP, so the trend will likely remain strong.
The lower the line is below the shaded area, the stronger the trend.
Here are the positives for-SGEN:
1. Currently a buy Fractal.
2. The lower indicator under the chart is CHOP; readings below the shaded area (38.2) indicate a strong trend.
Authors Note: last weekend I reviewed almost 900 charts for trend. I found only 8 CHARTS THAT HAD CHOP READINGS UNDER THE SHADED AREA.
This told me that only about 1% of what I reviewed are trending. If you have had trouble with your trades lately, ask yourself the TREND question.
Then I would suggest you add trend analysis to your own "Rules of Engagement" . It will most likely keep you out of frustrating range bound trades.
3. The top lower indicator is phase energy, and this is positive. Very strong.
4. The alligator is feeding in the uptrend.
5. 5/34 MACD (top indicator) is strong.
6. Prices are trading above the Ichimoku Cloud .
7. Prices are trading above the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line.
8. Prices are trading above the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud and this has been HEADING SHARPLY HIGHER.
9. The Directional Movement (top middle, a.k.a.-DMI) is strong.
In my opinion, SGEN-is in a solid uptrend.
I hope you establish your own "Rules of Engagement" and stand by them.
Two final thought:s if you swing trade and look left for structure, an understanding of trend enhances your probabilities of being correct.
If the CHOP is below the shaded area and you have sell Fractals and a falling cloud, and other indicators are falling,
CHOP is still valid in telling you the strength of the down-trend. USE Directional Movement (a.k.a.-DMI) to help compliment CHOP.
If you do your homework you will find plenty of opportunities.
Identify TRENDS and wait for the market to come to your price objective. Don't chase.
I hope this helps you.
Mark Twain said: “Good judgment comes from experience, and most of that comes from bad judgment.”
Good luck to you. Don.
GBPUSD: Federal Reserve Jitters? Key Support At Fib .236This is a three hour chart. If you looked at a daily chart for-GBPUSD you will notice a TRIPLE BOTTOM and a well defined inverse head and shoulders pattern.
The low of the triple bottom was 1.27893 on July 7th. The next low was 1.28654 on August 15th.
The third low is right now, 1.29942 on September 16th.
The negatives on the above chart are many:
1. Many Sell Fractals.
2. Your compass for direction, the alligator, is feeding STRONGLY in a down trend.
3. CHOP is almost BELOW the shaded area. This predicts a STRONG SELLING TREND.
4. CHOP ZONE is red, indicating a downward bias.
5. Prices are trading below the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
6. Prices are below the red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This is a sell signal.
7. Prices are below the Ichimoku Cloud baseline. This is a sell signal.
8. The 5/34 MACD (top) has a bearish cross. Histogram within is falling. This is a sell signal.
9. The phase energy (top lower) is steadily falling, and it is still below the zero line. This is a sell signal.
10. The-DMI (top middle) has the dominant direction as down (red line over green), and the black line is rising. This means more strength in SELLING.
11. Ichimoku Cloud has red border.
Positives: none to report.
What to look for:
Key chart support levels: Fibonacci .236, last swing low at 1.28654, bottom-most level of the triple bottom at 1.27893.
As prices approach these levels, look to the indicators listed above for any signs of directional change.
Price action might have to wait for the Federal Reserve meeting next week.
Good luck to you in all your trades. Don.
BTCUSD Update: Trendless Action But Increased Bearish DivergenceThis update is from two days ago. Sideways action prevails. Here are the indicators.
Negatives:
1. Last valid sell Sell Fractal was Sept 13th.
2. Your compass for direction, the alligator, is feeding weakly in a down trend.
3. CHOP is almost above the shaded area. This predicts a lack of trend.
4. CHOP ZONE is red, indicating a downward bias.
5. Prices are trading below the Ichimoku Cloud .
6. Prices are below (or at) the red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line.
7. Prices are below the Ichimoku Cloud baseline.
8. The 5/34 MACD (top) has a bearish cross. Histogram within is falling.
9. The phase energy (top lower) is steadily falling, and it is still below the zero line.
10. The-DMI (top middle) has the dominant direction as down (red line over green), and the black line is rising. This means more strength in SELLING.
11. Ichimoku Cloud has red border.
Positives:
1. Not many. Price is hanging above trend support, but this is a very weak positive.
Support is last swing low at $594.63.
Want odds? 88% odds down (because of the sell Fractal, down alligator direction, lower-DMI, lower phase energy),
12% odds up/ sideways (CHOP not yet indicating trend).
What to look for: if there is to be a breakout move lower, CHOP should start falling (lower in the shaded area) to confirm the trend.
Another indication of trend is-DMI (top middle). Currently-DMI has a strong negative bias.
Note: DMI-indicates trend. CHOP indicates trend. From my own experience, CHOP is more reliable as a trend tool, but-DMI reacts faster.
This is why I use both.
There are FAR MORE NEGATIVES than positives on this three hour chart. The daily chart should be used to confirm. (Naturally, the daily moves more slowly).
In my opinion, use tight stops if you are long. I would not short until a breach of $594.63.
Good luck to you in all your trades. Don.
Update: All That Glitters Is Not XAUUSD: 12 Bearish SignsUpate from three days ago. XAUUSD-is still weak. It is down an additional 2% since then.
Here are ONE DOZEN negatives I see in-XAUUSD, and why I feel-Gold is a sell:
1. Multiple Sell Fractals in effect (red rectangle on chart).
2. Alligator jaws OPEN, feeding in down-trend. THIS IS YOUR DIRECTIONAL COMPASS.
3. Chop indicator (under chart) is in the shaded area. This indicates a ZERO trend and, at best, sloppy action with a downward bias.
4. Phase energy (lower top indicator) is heading LOWER. The action is below the zero line. Decidedly bearish .
5. DMI-(middle top indicator) has red (sell) as the dominant factor, and this bearish action is gaining strength as the (black) DMI-line rises.
6. Prices are trading BELOW the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
9. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This is a sell signal.
9. The red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
10. The Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
11. The CHOP ZONE indicator (under chart) is red, indicating a down trend.
12. 5/34 MACD (top) is heading lower.
My comments: very bearish signs. Decision: do not go long-XAUUSD. If you are short, maintain position.
Good luck to you. Don.
Update: All That Glitters Is Not GDX: 12 Bearish SignsUpdate: GDX-is weaker than when I published the negative (sell) chart four days ago. It is down another 6% since them.
Here are ONE DOZEN negatives I see in-GDX, and why I feel this-ETF is a sell:
1. Sell Fractals in effect (red rectangle on chart).
2. Alligator jaws opened in tandem with sell Fractals. Alligator feeding in down-trend. THIS IS YOUR DIRECTIONAL COMPASS.
3. Chop indicator (under chart) is well above the 38.2 shaded area. This indicates a ZERO trend and, at best, sloppy action with a downward bias.
4. Phase energy (lower top indicator) is heading LOWER. The action is below the zero line. It failed at a rally and is now lower.
5. Momentum (top indicator) is the 5/34 measure, and this is bearish action and is heading lower. Histogram within is also heading lower.
6. Prices are trading UNDER the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
9. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This is a sell signal.
9. The red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
10. The Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
11. The CHOP ZONE indicator (under chart) is red, indicating a down trend.
12. DMI-(above chart, middle) is showing red (sell) as the dominant force. The DMI-(black line) is flat to down. Note: the DMI-and-CHOP are in sync. NO TREND.
In my opinion-GDX is heading LOWER. I have given you a dozen negative signs as my objective evidence.
Because of the recent sell Fractals and other negative signs, its hard for me to envision GDX-heading into a new up-trend.
As always, good luck to you in all your trades. Don.
ACRE: Double Bottom With Upside Move ?Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation is a specialty finance company. The Company is focused on directly originating, managing and servicing a portfolio of commercial real estate (CRE) debt-related investments for its own account.
With the slight uptick in interest rates-ACRE has digested previous gains.
There is a double bottom (thick black line beginning August 12th) with a possible upside move.
Please consider the positives in the chart of-ACRE.
1. Buy Fractal (green box).
2. CHOP line (below chart) sinking out of the shaded area, below 38.2, indicating a new TREND.
3. CHOP ZONE, below CHOP, is green, indicating up trend.
4. The alligator, YOUR COMPASS, is feeding in the uptrend.
5. The Ichimoku Cloud (black) base line and (red) conversion line are both rising.
6. Prices are above both of these lines.
7. The three indicators on top are strong. The middle top indicator is-DMI, and the dominant move is green (up) and the black line (trend) is starting to rise. This confirms the CHOP indicator below the chart.
In my opinion, this stock is a strong buy. Good luck to you. Don.
