Two possible bullish scenariosBitcoin's free fall below the 600 area has been pretty intense, but the selloff's reaching exhaustion.
We're trading inside a channel, with clearly defined areas of brief consolidation over time, which act as support and resistance levels.
I'm fairly confident that if Bitcoin manages to climb over 550-580 it can hit 754 by the end of the month.
Bill Williams Indicators
SPY WEEKLY NEUTRAL WHIPSAWFor longer term traders long term primary trend is still bullish
with momentum slowing. News fears are
creating this wiggle IMO and I look for an
updraft once things settle. I am still long
my long term portfolio. We are in a area of
whipsaw for sure now inside the alley gators
mouth. A close below the blue jaw line and
I will reduce risk dramatically
USD/JPY 4 HOUR WHIPSAWYen is basically trend-less for now on 4 hr time frame
and is consolidating its move from last week, The Gator is asleep LOL
Watching
sell fractal. Suspect not a great deal of movement until
news events come later in the week.
IWM NEUTRAL ON WEEKLYfollowing Bill Williams rules from a weekly perspective
we do not have a full blown sell signal on the IWM. Price
needs to take out thte fractal area first. I have found if you
enter now too much whipsaw. Anytime price is below the
blue balance line price has a way of accelerating below
the jaw line. Let the trade come to you. On a weekly perspective
SPY, Q,s DIA, and IYT all are above the balance line and still bullish
IWM is where money managers reduce risk first, I am waiting to see if price takes out
this fractal level and then evaluate.
SilverUsing Bill Williams Chaos analysis using Operative Time Frame and his way of delineating the Elliott waves using momentum, we are beginning a powerful wave 3 of 3 uptrend.
I'll go long using options when we get to 19.44 or above.
EURO NeutralI am taking off this trade ahead of the FED
FOMC announcement. The advantage of
the Bill Williams Alligator trade system IMHO is it allows the trader
to maximize the trade. You can take or ignore signals and signals and often
take awhile to trigger. Each signal is one or two ticks
above each candle
Acuity Brands Inc. (AYI) potential breakout to 145-155 priceAYI volume surge upward to 201.61% yesterday which might make the price rallies to 145-155 zone according to Darvas' box system. As per Darvas, prices moving up and down the top "box" (coordinates 126-145) coupled by rising volume will trigger a potential rally. Looking in hindsight starting June 2013, "boxes" or sideways channel as per technical terms are piling up on top each other and will probably continue on. AYI has also good EPS rating , 81% compared to its group. I'll watch this stock and at the same time, setting up BUY stop order @ 143.89 using a BUY entry signal by Bill William's fractals and an initial stop loss of 127.
Euro NeutralMomentum continues to slow in the EUR/USD. I expect
more sideways action however I will enter short on the fractal
below the alley-gators jaw, blue line. Buyers are loosing interest
with these failed highs but it is too early to go short
copx longCopper is setting up for a long.
It is now trading close to the saddle point as
Bill Williams describes and has nice bullish
divergence.from its previous low. This is a
technical trade and fundamentally has headwinds
with China, but none the less the chart is showing
buying pressure as the bears may have over done it
from a weekly perspective
OIH Breakout Weekly Oil Services has broken out on the weekly. Price is now above the
alley-gator blue line and the Awesome Oscillator is now showing a
green bar.with momentum now shifting.
My entry point would be 2 ticks above this past weeks high
or a retest of the Alley-gator blue line. Halliburton and Schulberge are also strong.
As the summer driving season approaches the oil patch normally shows strength.
PEP Short WeeklyPepsi had a volatile week after earnings and there
was heavy selling on Friday. They missed on revenue
from the streets estimate. Pepsi is impacted by volatility in the
Emerging markets and currency valuations. The Awesome
Oscillator now is showing a clear saucer sell with price well
below the Alley-gator, blue line. I expect an increase of selling pressure
long term.not to mention a double top on the weekly
SPY NEUTRAL WEEKLYOn the Bill Williams Alley gator trade system
price is currently inside the alligators mouth which
means no trade.Price needs to break the alley-gators jaw, blue line
or take out the top fractal. The awesome oscillator is showing red bars
indicating momentum is slowing and selling pressure. As a longer term
investor I am in cash until market shows its hand. The ATR on the daily is
showing elevated volatility with whipsaw.
Chaos GLDThis is GLD analyzed using Bill Williams' Chaos techniques and showing the apparent start of a 3rd Elliott Wave in the current up trend.
Euro/USDI am waiting for a Fractal to setup under the Alley-gator Jaw Blue line.
price is still consolidating and the safe play is wait for the fractal until
it breaks out of this range
This is a weak short though as it is in a longer term uptrend and may
be expanding its range
BA LongBA settled their labor dispute this past Friday.
BA has been in consolidation and the Alley-gator has been
compressed, or as Bill Williams describes the sleeping alley-gator. I would buy with a buy stop 2 ticks above the
fractal marked; 138.90 My stop loss would be below the blue line or the gators jaw.
BA is in a strong sector under accumulation the past month and three months the XLI is what i use.
I will sell put spreads 60 days out with a 20 delta so I would also have the option of putting a condor on if it does
not move
CAT Bullish WeeklyOn a weekly chart CAT is setting up nicely for a breakout move. It is in a tight consolidation range which Bill Williams refers to as the saddle point. I have highlighted the first bullish fractal. Will be setting my buy stop 2 ticks above that high. One could also put in a short entry on the fractal below the alligator. Either way this is a high probability setup.
My stops would be just below the alligator (blue line) for a low risk entry or as Williams says taking your trade in the low rent district LOL. My first target would be 50% retrace from the high of the sell off..
IBM WEEKLY SHORTIBM on the longer term is bullish
however it is loosing momentum and setting up for a
short. It needs to take out this fractal for the setup.
According to Bill Williams when price is below the Jaw balance line
it is easier for it to fall. This weeks candle looks ominous for the bulls.
Will sell call spreads above for safety rather than buying puts or debit spreads. It will also allow me to Condorize it with an Iron Condor to collect more credit
