Biotech
My Top Piece of shitThis is just garbage. Sitting here a bubbly parabolic ATH's. This is the #1 short on the planet right now. Overbought on the fucking weekly now in both RSi and MFI. The top is in.
Targovax $TRVX.OL clinical phase oncolytic virus valued 35 mUSDTargovax OSL:TRVX a clinical phase norwegian Biotech is currently at market cap NOK 327 million / 35 million USD.
Value inflection point very close as the company will need to raise funds in the very near future, which must either come from investors or from a possible partner deal.
PRESENTATION OF ONCOS-102 MELANOMA DATA AT SITC ANNUAL MEETING
www.healthcap.eu
Q3 report:
www.targovax.com
Q3 transcript:
finance.yahoo.com
Did the norwegian Biotech 3 year bear market come to an end?Oslo Stock Exchange info page:
www.oslobors.no
Oslo Cancer Cluster:
oslocancercluster.no
Radforsk:
radforsk.no
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Photocure IR: OSL:PHO
photocure.com
Nordic Nanovector IR: OSL:NANO
www.nordicnanovector.com
PCI Biotech IR: OSL:PCIB
pcibiotech.no
BergenBio IR: OSL:BGBIO
www.bergenbio.com
Ultimovacs IR: OMXSTO:ULTIMOO
ultimovacs.com
Targovax IR: OSL:TRVX
www.targovax.com
Photocure $PHO.OL stock trade above resistance, close at 5yr hghRecent news by OSL:PHO :
Randomized phase 3 study in Denmark demonstrates significant advantage in Bladder Cancer for Hexvix/Cysview blue light cystoscopy over standard white light variant:
photocure.com
At Q3 2019 Photocure reported continued record growth in the US as well as upfront payments from Chinese partner Asieris:
photocure.com
Further improvements for US reimbursements for Cysview from january 2020:
photocure.com
Technical analysis:
Technical indicators sliding into high momentum and near overbought values at this price level, so any entry should be done with clear considerations of short term risks.
Technicals versus PolicitiansWIth Warren and Bernie fading a bit, Bio/health have jumped nicely. Too much too soon IMO, at the minimum a short term pull back is coming. I am hoping we can become more range bound in the technicals and return to cyclical trading between 78 and 87, this type of cycle is great IBB and XBI, however getting caught when it breaks down can hurt! I use XBI has my measure, but trade LABU and LABD.
**Short XBI via LABD
Some upside potential in Athenex after sales beatAnalysts have been lowering their earnings forecasts on Athenex, Inc., causing the stock to crash. However, the company not only met earnings expectations on its report this morning, but also beat sales expectations and raised its full-year revenue guidance from a 32.5% increase to a 37.5% increase year-over-year. That's a pretty big bump, and it could cause analysts to revise their views on the company in the coming weeks. One or two upgrades could send this stock climbing back to the $14-15 range.
A long-term risk is the company's financial health. Athenex operates at a large loss and only has cash to fund operations until late 2020. The company is expected to make some progress toward profitability by then, but it will still be a long way from achieving that goal. So this is not a safe long-term investment; it's just a short-term scalp.
Risk Reward, Plenty of Potential vs ProblemsMYGN has been a player for a while, large company, with actual earnings, however litigation and companies are generally a bad thing. "healthy" enough of a chart for me to participate, but I will not have much patience to the downside, stop in place.
**Long this last collapse, limited in size... confidence is enough to buy, not enough to bet the farm
Short, waiting, use stopsI like the very short term trend lower, however this stock has very positive news in the pipelines. Be careful and use stops when shorting this stock. I like using a stop in the 90-95 area because of the very large swings and I am willing to risk gains for another move lower. I still beleive this is an overbought bounce that should find a home lower than the current valuation.
**I am short - happy trading!
CCXI is undervalued ahead of 4 catalystsTrade Summary
Ticker: CCXI (Last: $8.84)
Entry: $8.50-8.84
Price Target: $13-15.0+
Target Timeframe: 0-6 weeks
Trade Thesis
CCXI is an orphan/rare disease-focused company with a robust pipeline of clinical assets targeting autoimmune and inflammatory disorders as well as cancer. The company's lead asset CCX168 (Avacopan) is an orally administered small molecule being tested as a treatment for 3-indications. The most advanced of which is a pivotal phase 3 study in patients with ANCA associated vasculitis (AAV). Topline data is due this quarter. A key differentiator discussed by Nick Dinh, PharmD in this article between Avacopan and its failed peers is its ability to selectively inhibit parts of the complement system. In doing Avacopan avoids over-suppressing the patient's immune system.
On June 5th, 2019 CCXI dropped -20% in response to the failure of its competitors InflaRx (Nasdaq: IFRX) lead asset (IFX-1) in phase 2. The market, in turn, failed to realize is that the mechanism of action of IFX-1 is distinctly different from Avacopan. Avacopan is a small molecule, unlike IFX-1 which is an antibody. The share price continued to decline and hit a new 52-week low of $6.16 in August following weak Q2 earnings. The stock price was resurrected after a J.P. Morgan analyst upgraded them to overweight and commented that CCXI's phase 3 ADVOCATE trial "has a high probability of success and the stock could rally +90-110% if successful, or fall -45-80% if it fails.
To succeed Avacopan must prove non-inferior to the standard of care (SOC)(Rituximab or Cyclophosphamide and steroids). In phase 2 Avacopan hit its primary endpoint and demonstrated comparable efficacy (if not superior) to the SOC. Based on comments by the CEO, and the fact the management decided to withdraw its conditional marketing application in Europe so they could instead submit the phase 3 data due this quarter in support of full marketing authorization, and an NDA in the U.S, I bullish on the data readout. Of note, in May 2016 Vifor Pharma licensed Avacopan from CCXI gaining rights for areas outside the U.S. The deal was pretty sweet for CCXI and came with an upfront cash payment of $60 million, royalties, and milestone payments. Additionally, in 2016 CCXI was awarded PRIME designation by the EMA.
On top of all this, there are 3 three more data catalysts coming in 2020 for a total of 4-shots on goal. CCXI is still down -22% since the IFRX data drag down. Consequently, positive data is not baked into the share price.CCXI's stock price should bounce into the second half of Q4. Heavy call option volume for Dec. 20th @$13 strike suggests the market is optimistic.
Key Focus
Phase 3 ADVOCATE top-line data due Q4 2019.
Technicals
RSI= 53 on the daily chart.
Nearing a recent support level at $8.52
The next support level is $7.70
The 9-day EMA is holding above the 20-day and 200 day EMAs.
(Assuming an $8.67 entry)
Risk Assessment
To mitigate the downside risk we can hedge by buying puts (Dec. 20th @$8.00 strike). I am looking to enter on any dips next week and am shooting for a cost basis below $8.84.
Reward Potential and Price Targets:
+14% ($9.90)
+28% ($11.11)
+49% ($13.00)
+73% ($15.00)
I (Sultan) have no position but intend to buy shares and/or call/put options next week. CCXI
BLCM #VolatilityWatchBLCM has been in continuous long-term downtrend since IPO. Stock price has been showing signs of a bo...
Click here to read the rest of my analysis on BLCM.
Disclosure: I am long BLCM. This is not a recommendation to buy/sell as I am NOT a financial advisor. Please do your homework before investing.
NGM updateOn a winstreak here lately with picks. Hope i'm helping someone else besides myself out. stonkman out