Bitcoin Bullish! BIP 91. And test of top of downtrend channel!In my last post, I completely overlooked the news of BIP 91. Therefore, my short call became null and void. Being away from my desk for almost a week caused me to miss this important news. As of this morning, BIP 91 was signaled by 66% of the miners. This is huge. Only 80% is needed and if locked in, will help prevent a fork. Only 14% more support is needed to lock in BIP 91 and as I understand it tonight miners will have another chance to begin signaling.
Watch the chart at the following link to keep on BIP 91 adaptation: www.xbt.eu
A few notes of caution before we become bullish again:
1) We are still in the RED downtrend channel
2) We are nearing the top of this channel and will test it's resistance strength soon
3) Typically, a channel resistance/support is not broken without multiple hits
4) RSI is also indicating some resistance soon
5) Middle Bollinger Band to act as resistance soon
6) Huge resistance at $2400 coming up soon
I could be wrong, but all of this indicates to me that we might see at least one more leg down before breaking through these strong resistance points. This theory seems to correlate with our timeframe as well.
I don't know that I see us going back down below our upward sloping RED trendline again now that we are above it. I think it will act as support now and may end up helping us break out of our bearish RED channel in the next few days.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect us to dip a bit in the next few days before breaking out, but not below our RED support.
Bip148
BTCUSD: Bottom's in - Expecting Segwit activation and no splitI updated my last publlication when I went long again. I have a full position now, in all my crypto portfolio. Waiting to add after we get further confirmation, and after being in some profit, on each and every single trend continuation signal on the way up. Sentiment and technicals gave me a good signal today, so I closed my $ETCETH and $ETCXBT longs, and kept my $ETH as a longer term stake. Made out with 2% with it, which helps alleviate some of the loss.
Hopefully, people following me have a reduced drawdown, and are in good shape to continue following this powerful trend.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
LTCUSDT: Litecoin is accumulated, probably sideways for nowLitecoin has been acting stronger than $BTC, I assume it might grind sideways like practically all coins, until all hell breaks loose by August 1st. Most people are worried, or bearish overall, and in the recent bottoms, we saw traders unload long positions in loss, to quickly realize they had fallen for a bear trap. Until fundamental risks aren't out of the way, it is highly unlikely to see a strong trend in the cryptocurrency space, so, safest bet is to accumulate longs with the smart money in your preferred basket of solid fundamental picks in this market. I'll share my entries with my clients as usual, and we will continue to build our portfolio in preparation for the eventual resumption of the weekly rally in crypto, which might culminate in a blow off top, specially if it hits my weekly targets before the long term timeframe time expires for $BTC and $ETH.
The closer we get to 29.54, the safer the long entry in this range...Try to average in gradually, specially when traders become vocally negative, and specially if oversold, on dips.
Coins like $LTC and $XRP, have been accumulated for long periods of time, and might be extremely resilient, despite being affected by short term volatility and bear traps/shakeouts during periods of negativity.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Disclaimer: I'm long $LTC, $BTC, $XRP, among other currencies and tokens.