Bist100
GARAN HEAD AND SHOULDERS BOTTOMSVolume confirms the formation. Prices can move above 10 after breakout. In any case Follow the uptrend for STOP LOSS
XBANK is full correlated with invers head and shoulders and fiboinverse head and shoulders pattern verified. below 90k , collapse may begin.
5,42 might be the short, even mid term topMost Possible Scenario for the short-medium term
We are out of Bollinger bands , the USD/TRY overperformance might be over for some time.
Probably a short to medium term top. USD needs to consolidate before continue the bull run.
In the mean time, BIST 100 , while USD is resting will try to push for 100.000 level as a first step. Turkish manipulators will use that consolidation period to push the prices up by using the same reason why it was sold off. Cheaper TRY attracting new investors to BIST. Use the wave but never believe their bullshit
BIST possible scenario cast
As previously stated two analysis . First on 22 April
. The spill has been effective to 88,200 Level
And also after the spill , as we have stated with the run away gaps t the downside.
The second analysis of 12 JULY
Turkish manipulators, if necessary conditions are not strongly distrubed, have the tendency to close those gaps.
So expect to close 98,800 gap. Then a trial of 100.000
There will be a profit realization from 100.000 but ,most possibly these realizations will be short lived and the prices would head up. For a possible scenario of : creation of a huge head and shoulders formation.
The hypothesis to assume that prices will break 100.00 and go on depends mainly on the positive divergence of RSI and Momentum on daily and weekly basis.
which brings out the possibility of making of a huge H&S formation.
If this scenario holds, expect to see the right shoulder close to 110.000 levels.
As the analsysis is bullish , fundamentally BIST is weak so I am not issuing a long position here.
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Notice the runaway gaps to the downside.Notice the huge pressure to the downside and the general pattern is still very very bearish with a possible target of 75.000 ( the mean of the previous squueze channel)
Although Turkish Manipulators like to close all possible gaps when/if there is suitable environment, this gaps mean that there will be a huge pressure on the market to the mean 75.000.
It also coincedes with the Turkish Lira depreciation story.
Turkey has two major problems at the same time, lack of Savings and Lack of Foreign Exchange. The latter problem can not be solved via Turkish Lira nominated/settled swap auctions. There is a need for actual USD. Full Stop!
If market volatility calms down and manipulators try to close these gaps, that will be a great opportunity to sell long assets.
XU100 EW ANALYSISIncreasing trend line is around on 90K...
If we stay above 90K: TARGET => 145K - 150K
BIST 100Chart Patterns showing signs of weakness and potential topping formation. While as the announcement of the election, RSI and Momentum should be closely watched for any positive or negative divergence.
