BITCOIN is exactly where it's supposed to be.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is under heavy pressure lately due to the trade tariffs but as long-term investors, we shouldn't let this volatility affect us.
The MVRV has been one of the most consistent cyclical Top (sell high) and Bottom (buy low) indicators giving only a maximum of two optimal signals in each Cycle and it shows that the market is nowhere near a Top.
On the contrary the MVRV has spend the first 3 months of the year correcting from the 0.382 Fibonacci level to the 0.236. This is the exact same score it had i March 2017. Even in the other two Cycles that wasn't this low on Fibonacci levels, it still made a correction, flashing a red signal.
As the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) continues to support, there are far more greater probabilities that the market will recover, turning the recent trade volatility into the best buy opportunity of 2025.
As far as a Cycle Top is concerned, it has always been an excellent exit signal when the MVRV hit the 0.786 Fib.
So do you think that will be the case? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
BITCOIN Do you really want to miss this rally???Bitcoin / BTCUSD remains supported by the 1week MA50 just like it has been through the whole 2020/21 period after the COVID crash.
In spite of the massive bearish pressure of the polical developments (tariffs), the fact that the market is holding the 1week MA50, means that it is respective Bitcoin's Cycles.
In fact this is like the May-June 2021 accumulation on the 1week MA50, following the first Bitcoin Top of April 2021.
Similarly, we've had a peak formation in December 2024- January 2025 and the market corrected.
In addition to that, the 1week RSI is testing the 42.00, which isn't just where the August 2024 and September 2023 bottoms were priced, but more importantly the June 2021 one.
The symmetry between the last two Cycles is uncanny, both trading inside the long term Channel Up, with identical Bear Cycle and (so far) Bull Cycle ranges.
If all ends up repeating themselves, expect a value of at least $160000 by September.
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BITCOIN This is where the most aggressive part begins.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has turned sideways amidst the tariffs implementation today and on the longer picture (1W time-frame) it remains supported just above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). On this chart we display our Parabolic Growth Channel (PGC), which is the long-term Zone where BTC is a buy opportunity.
Throughout the market's historic Cycles, the time when BTC was supported above the 1W MA50 but still within its PGC was known as an Accumulation Phase (blue ellipse) before the final parabolic rally of the Cycle and its eventual Top (green Arc).
Based on this model, so far we haven't seen any such rally, despite the undoubtedly strong rallies of October 2023 - March 2024 and October 2024 - December 2024. Only the March 2024 and then the recent Tops can be counted as marginal breaches above the PGC and it's been no surprise that the market corrected back inside the Buy Zone but remained supported by the 1W MA50.
As long as it does, the probabilities of that final, most aggressive Cycle rally get stronger. On the last Cycle the peak was priced just above the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. That is currently a little below $170k and that is why our final Target is just below at $160000. Also right now we are marginally below the 0.618 Cycle top-to-top Fib, which is in line to where all previous final Cycle parabolic rallies started.
So do you think the 1W MA50 will now push BTC to its final Cycle rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Bollinger squeeze and 1D Death Cross aiming at $150kBitcoin (BTCUSD) will complete today a 1D Death Cross (1D MA50 crossing below the 1D MA200). A technically bearish pattern in theory but in practice it has been one of the greatest buy signals during the 2023 - 2025 Bull Cycle.
** Bollinger Squeeze, 1D Death Cross, 1W MA50 **
As you can see, since the long-term Channel Up started with the November 21 2022 Bear Cycle bottom, we have had another two 1D Death Crosses. Both took place on the Channel Up bottoms (September 04 2023 and August 05 2024), serving as Higher Lows for the pattern. At the same time, the price had a test (or close) of the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), while the Bollinger Bands (blue cloud) have already started to squeeze.
This squeeze is critical as it was even present during the November 21 2022 Bear market bottom, having started a little earlier on October 31 2022. In fact the squeeze started earlier on all three bottom phases and even on the current price action we are seeing so far a Bollinger Squeeze since March 17 2025, a little after the near test of the 1W MA50.
** The Transition Month **
In typical cyclical manner, each year had one Channel Up bottom. This bottom process (consisting of the Bollinger Squeeze, 1D Death Cross and 1W MA50 test) technically appears once a year. We call this month 'Transition Month', which is the necessary phase that BTC spends to go from the bottom to the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Up. In 2022 that month was December, in 2023 it was September and in 2024 August. Since all bottom conditions have been met this time also, we expect April to be the 2025 Transition Month.
** What's next? **
As far as the next leg up in concerned, all 3 previous Bullish Legs rose by at least +100% from the bottom. Since March 10 was the close test of the 1W MA50, we can consider that the bottom from which to measure the +100% leg up. That suggests that BTC will hit at least $150000 on the next top.
But what do you think? Has this Bollinger Squeeze, 1D Death Cross, 1W MA50 Triple Combo just priced the new bottom? And if yes, will April be the Transition Month for the new Bullish Leg to $150k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Will it finally break the 2 month Resistance?Bitcoin / BTCUSD is having an impressive 1day candle,recovering the losses of the last 3 days and with the 1day RSI bouncing on its Rising Support.
Now it faces the most important Resistance of all, the Falling trend line that started on the January 20th ATH.
This is just under the 1day MA50 and this will be the 5th test.
If successful, it will be an early validation that the trend has finally shifted to long term bullish again.
The first technical target will be the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. Aim a little bit lower at the top of February's Resistance Zone at $100000.
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Bitcoin: Watching For Reversal 78K AREA.Bitcoin bear flag has become in play over the previous week as I anticipated in my previous week's analysis. While there is a potential minor support in the 81 to 80K area, the lower high established at 88K implies a lower low is likely to follow which can unfold this week. This scenario could see price retesting the 76K area low. There are a couple of potential opportunities that can present themselves in this situation.
The day trade long off the 81,500 area support (see thin rectangle and arrow). This would be appropriate for the smaller time frames like 30 min or lower. Waiting for price structure confirmations and looking for profit objectives that are proportionally within reason on your selected time frame (Trade Scanner Pro is ideal for this). Price may see smaller time frame reversal patterns between 81,500 and 80K numerous times. It is important to take proportional profits because there is NO guarantee the reversal will follow through especially in the face of a lower probability bounce (thanks to the lower high established at 88K).
The opportunity for larger time frames (like swing trades) is between 78 to 76K. This is the previous low and a broader double bottom formation can develop here. The confirmation patterns are the same as previously explained, except the profit objective can be much greater because of the magnitude of the levels in question. For example, if a long confirms at 78,500, risk would be like 2K points, profit objective would be 4K at minimum. Scaling out of a swing trade can also be considered here like selling half at 83.5K, another quarter at 84.5K and closing what is left at 85.5K. Scaling is a more advanced concept, if you find it confusing, just stick to a simple R:R of 2:1 or more all in all out in high potential situations.
While the broader trend in Bitcoin is still bullish, the short term structure is bearish until proven otherwise by price. Trying to piece together news, economic reports, etc., I find to be nothing but confusing and often counterintuitive to how the market actually reacts. This is why I rely ONLY on price structure and support/resistance levels. They are objective and help me align with the market intent (and why a lot of my anticipated scenarios happen to play out).
The fact that the short term structure is bearish implies support levels have a greater chance of breaking. This helps to shape my expectations, and also why it is so important to wait for confirmation. The reason I prefer longs over shorts in this situation is because I do not lose site of the BIG picture. The 76K to 73K area is VERY relevant location of a broader higher low. This is why you need to have a very deep understanding of the time frames you are using along with the potential and risks presented by reach one. The larger the time frame, the more weight it carries. The short term bearish trend is nothing more than a retrace of a broader BULLISH structure that has been in play since the 15K low a few years ago.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN BEARISH WEDGE BREAKOUT|SHORT|
✅BITCOIN made a bearish
Breakout of the bearish wedge
Pattern which reinforces our
Bearish bias and we will be
Expecting a further move down
SHORT🔥
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Bitcoin - This Is Just Wonderful!Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) creates textbook market stucture:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
The entire stock market is selling off significantly but Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies are still holding their strong levels. This is clearly a sign of bullish strength and even if we see a retest of the previous all time high, the overall uptrend remains perfectly valid over the next months.
Levels to watch: $70.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
BITCOIN Is it owed a parabolic rally based on the GoldBTC ratio?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading on a highly structured manner within a Channel Up for the entirety of its Bull Cycle since the November 2022 bottom. We've discussed before how this is the smoothest Cycle of all.
What we didn't bring into the mix before was the Gold/BTC ratio (black trend-line), naturally negatively correlated to Bitcoin, which has been trading within a Channel Down since its January 2023 Top. As you can see it posts the same pattern on every Cycle: Channel Down (blue), followed by its bearish break-out and a huge drop (red ellipse) that prices the Bull Cycle Top on BTC.
So far every BTC Cycle had its parabolic rally (green ellipse) when the Gold/BTC ratio broke downwards. Does the market owe one this time also? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Say goodbye to low prices if this level breaks. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has turned sideways the past couple of days following the strong bullish reaction on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). The reason it that it is about to face the most common Resistance of this Cycle, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Within the current (2023 - 2025) Bull Cycle, BTC always started its new rally near or on the 1W MA50 but the most important development to confirm that was a break above the 1D MA50. On both previous correction/ accumulation phases, the 1D MA50 break coincided with a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement break.
The bottom of each phase is formed when the 1W MA50 gets tested on a Double Bottom, which we've had on March 11 2025, September 06 2024 and September 11 2023. Among those fractals, their 1D RSI patterns post identical sequences.
As a result, once the price breaks above the 1D MA50, we can claim that the most optimal buy opportunity of the past 6 months will cease to exist and then you'll have to chase a rally all the way to at least a +97% rise (late 2023 rally, the late 2024 was even stronger at +106%). That gives us a minimum target estimate of $150000.
Do you think that would be the case? Break above the 1D MA50 and off to the races with no looking back? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN on a Bull Flag that targets $94000.Bitcoin is trading inside a Channel Up since the March 11th market bottom.
The recent 2day pull back is a Bull Flag that just hit the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.
Ahead of an emerging Golden Cross (4h), this is a triple buy signal.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 94000 (the 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is also rebounding on its 2 week Rising Support. An additional strong buy signal.
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BTCUSD: Can $160k be a very 'pessimistic' target estimate?Bitcoin is neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 50.359, MACD = 2868.500, ADX = 51.194) and having rebounded almost on its 1W MA50, there couldn't be a better buy opportunity for the rest of the year. Basically the price is now ranged inside the 1W MA50 and top trendline of the Pi Cycle, while the 1W CCI hit the -100.00 oversold limit. This has been the most efficient buy entry in August 2024 August 2023 even on the Cycle before in June 2021.
Even if the market doesn't make an 'excessive top' above the Channel Up, like the last two Cycles, hitting $160,000 would still be under the top of the Channel Up and the top of the Pi Cycle. No matter how high this target seems now, it will still be a pessimistic, 'bad case' scenario.
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BITCOIN Wait For Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN is trading below
The horizontal resistance
Of 92,000$ and has formed
A bearish wedge pattern so
We are bearish biased and
IF we see a bearish breakout
From the wedge we can
Be expecting a further move down
Sell!
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BITCOIN Mega Cycle starting the final Parabolic Rally.This is not the first time we review the Mega Cycle Theory on Bitcoin (BTCUSD). This states that in reality BTC's Cycle's since the beginning aren't 4 as traditional models suggest but 2. And in fact instead of the 4th, we are currently on just the 2nd BTC Mega Cycle.
Well this Theory has for sure a better gel with the stock market trend in the past 15 years but what's more important is that the price is now (March 2025) within the underlying Pivot trend-line and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the same level it was coming toward the end of the 1st Mega Cycle. That was when it broke above the Pivot and started the hyper aggressive Parabolic Rally.
This Pivot trend-line is essentially the level that starts after the initial Cycle rally and acts as a Resistance turned Support and then Resistance again until the Cycle's final Parabolic Rally. Practically the Cycle mapping is more effectively viewed on the 1W RSI sequence. We are now at the stage when the 1W RSI ranges for the past 2 years between overbought (80.00) and neutral (45.00) like it was in 2016 - 2017.
In any case, this is yet another study showing that Bitcoin's Top can be at around $150k, which is currently marginally above the Pivot and as we head towards the end of 2025, the bar is raised to as high as $200.
So do you think we are just starting the final year Parabolic Rally to at least $150k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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S&P500 This is the buy opportunity of the year for a 7000 TargetThe S&P500 index (SPX) is in the process of posting its 2nd straight green 1W candle, following a streak of 4 red weeks since the February 17 peak. That streaκ was technically the Bearish Leg of the 1.5-year Channel Up and as you can see, it made a direct contact with its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line).
As the same time, the 1W RSI almost touched the 40.00 Support that priced the October 23 2023 Low, which was the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up. The similarities don't stop there as both Bearish Legs had approximately a -10.97% decline, the strongest within that time-frame.
The Bullish Leg that followed that bottom initially peaked on a +28.85% rise, almost touching the 2.236 Fibonacci extension. Assuming the symmetry holds between the Bullish Legs as well, we can be expecting the index to start the new Bullish Leg now and target 7000 by the end of the year, which is marginally below both the 2.236 Fib ext and a potential +28.85% rise.
This may indeed be the best buy opportunity for 2025.
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BITCOIN historically sees huge rally when Gold peaks. This time?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is coming, slowly but surely, out of a consolidation following the test and hold of its 1W MA50 and one of the reasons it is about to rally strongly may be flying under the radar for the majority.
That reason has to do with Gold (XAUUSD) and its long-term Cycles. As you can see on this 1W chart, every time Gold peaked in the past 10 years, BTC started the parabolic rally of its Bull Cycle. Equally during Gold's past 2 Cycles, when it revisited that peak and tested that Resistance, it made a Double Top and declined again, which for Bitcoin was translated into a Bear Cycle confirmation.
With the help of the Sine Waves, we can be expecting that Gold Double Top in early April 2026, which means that by that time BTC will already be in its new Bear Cycle. As a result, it is suggested be already out of the market with our profits by the end of 2025.
So based on all that, if Gold makes its Cycle Top now, which is highly likely, Bitcoin will start a parabolic rally. Now, will it be the strongest of its Bull Cycle as the past Cycles suggested? Could be, but even if its not, it should be enough to replicate the late 2024 one and give one final opportunity for profit making.
But what do you think? Is Gold's potential peak here give a very favorable rally to Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD: The Cycle won't peak before September!Bitcoin remains neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 47.334, MACD = 3198.500, ADX = 54.017) which, having kept the 1W MA50 intact as Support, suggest that this is the ideal level to buy again upon the continuation of the Bull Cycle. Despite the recent 2 month correction, the Cycle hasn't peaked and according to the Pre-Halving/ Post-Halving theory, that suggests that the time from the Cycle's Bottom to the Halving is almost identical to the time form the Halving to the Cycle's Top, we have until the end of September before the bull run is over. And that's because the range from the Cycle's Bottom to the 4th Halving was 75 weeks (525 days), which indicates that it will take around the same amount of time from the Halving before the Bull Cycle tops. See how amazingly consistent that has been on all of prior 3 Cycles. Consequently, the best strategy here would be to hold and start selling in September.
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BITCOIN Will this historic level break too?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) remains supported on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is its main Bull Cycle Support, despite the recent volatility. As mentioned numerous times, in periods of uncertainty it helps you maintain an objective long-term perspective if you zoom out and look on the wider time-frames.
On this 1W chart, we can see that so far all of BTC's Cycle's have followed the same pattern. The Bear Cycle bottoms and the first bounce of the Bull Cycle aims at breaking above the ATH Lower Highs trend-line (blue Arc). It is what we call the 'Growth Channel' that guides the market from its Cycle bottom to break above the ATH Lower Highs and when it does the Parabolic Rally Phase (green Rectangle) starts. The most aggressive part is when the price breaks also above its Growth Channel.
This is the only Resistance level that has yet to be broke on this Cycle. If it does, the market will explode to Targets above $200k that will start putting it to capitalization levels that would require earth shattering catalysts in terms of adoption. A continuation of expansion within the boarders of the Growth Channel however can easily target $150k. Notice that throughout the whole process of the Growth Channel expansion on all Cycles historically, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) tends to hold and support.
So what do you think will happen this time? Will Bitcoin break above the Growth Channel and offer us another proper Parabolic Rally or will it be a more standard rise within it? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The Ultimate Cycle Model calls for $160k!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is rebounding following yesterday's Fed Rate Decision. Technically the rebound has already started 10 days ago after the market nearly bottomed on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). This is the strongest long-term Support level, as it is where BTC priced Lows and rebounded on August 05 2024 and September 11 2023, but it is not the only one.
With the current 2023 - 2025 Bull Cycle pattern being a Channel Up, this is the absolute and ultimate model that has been guiding the price action and can help estimate any future moves. Given that, it's also the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level that supported both Lows (as well as the current one) on the 1W MA50 mentioned above. As a result, we are so far on a double Support cluster.
The 1W RSI comes in as the 3rd Support, as it hit and is rebounding now on its 2-year Support level, where the bounces of September 07 2024 and September 11 2023 happened. It is also important to mention that the Channel Up can be divided into two phases, Phase 1 (green Channel Up), which traded within the 0.0 - 1.0 Fibonacci range and Phase 2 (blue Channel Up), which trades within the 0.5 - 1.5 Fibonacci range.
The symmetry within those patterns are so high that the two Bullish Legs of Phase one have both rallied by +100.64%. If Phase 2 follows the same dynamic, and there is no reason to assume it won't as the Bearish Legs have been almost identical, we can assume that the Bullish Leg that has just started will rise by +121.48%, same as the previous one (Aug - Dec 2024). That gives us a Target estimate of $160000.
So do you think that BTC has bottomed on this Triple Support Cluster and if so, can it reach $160k by the end of this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The 2021 Pivot trend-line that is coming to its rescue.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has stayed stable after last week's rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the level that offered support on the Bull Cycle Channel's previous Higher Low (August 05 2024).
Technically however, that is not the only major Support level that may be coming to BTC's rescue as we've identified the Pivot trend-line that started on the April 12 2021 High as a Resistance and since then made another 2 contacts (as rejections). This is the first time now that is being tested as Support.
During the previous Cycle (2018 - 2021) a similar Pivot trend-line was the level that supported Bitcoin during the last year of its parabolic rally on January and June 2021. The June 2021 contact in particular tested the 1W MA50 as well, which is the exact situation we're in right now. That double support hold initiated the final rebound towards the Cycle's new All Time High (ATH).
Check also how similar the 1W CCI patterns between the two fractals are and based on that, a 1W CCI reading at 200.00 would be a solid level to sell and take profit. As a result, we expect this Cycle's Channel Up to accelerate the current rebound, technically its Bullish Leg and make a new ATH, which would be the Cycle's new Top, ideally with a CCI at 200.00.
So do you think this cyclical Pivot trend-line is coming along with the 1W MA50 to BTC's rescue? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD: This isn't the Top by any meansBitcoin remains slightly bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41.137, MACD = -3097.700, ADX = 33.471) as even though it appears its trading on a macro bottom, just over the 1W MA50 (1W RSI = 45.068), it hasn't broken out yet. The market undoubtedly took a psychological hit with February's drop but despite the voices calling for a new bear market, we are here to show you why this Cycle hasn't topped yet and is still far from doing so.
This metric measures BTC's temporary stops/ tops during a Bull Cycle. It is a Halving-to-Halving method, starting on the most recent Halving and ending on the next one. Stop 1 is where the starting Halving takes place and the market pulls back. Stop 2 is the next pullback on the 0.236 Time Fibonacci level. The 0.382 Fib prices Stop 3 and basically the Cycle Top. This has been happening on both previous Cycles exactly as described and on the 2012-14 Cycle it just had to be adjusted a little before the 1st Halving due to the Cycle being much shorter since it was the earliest. Nevertheless, it fits the Stop points perfectly.
Note also that distance from the Halving (Stop 1) to Stop 3 has always been 76/78 weeks. This suggests the we can have a new Cycle Top by October 20th 2025 the latest.
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BITCOIN The 0.5 Fib Golden Rule! This is not a Bear Market yet!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) shook the bullish market sentiment last month, as late February saw it drop aggressively not just from the 109k All Time High (ATH) but also below the key psychological Support of $90000. We have discussed already how the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) coming to its rescue, is the critical Support and rightfully so, but there is also another critical condition that is currently showing incredible strength, keeping BTC into Bull Cycle territory (for now).
That is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level Golden Rule. This suggests that BTC's corrections/ pull-backs up to the 0.5 Fib level are technical and perfectly systemic, especially with the 1W MA50 supporting. If anything, such pull-backs during a Bull Cycle are the most optimal buy opportunities. We are currently on an exact such opportunity as the price hit last week both the 1W MA50 and the 0.5 Fib.
In the past 10 years since the August 2015 Bear Cycle bottom, every correction up to the 0.5 Fib was a buy. In the 4 cases it broke, 2 were the signals of the 2018 and 2022 Bear Cycles and the other 2 signals of the market correcting the bullish overreaction to the Libra (2019) and Musk (2021) rallies. The latter though was still contained above the 1W MA50 and so would the 2019 one if it wasn't for the March 2020 COVID crash.
As a result, we still see no cause for concern (yet) and so far this is the best buy opportunity for Bitcoin since last year and the August 05 2024 Low.
But what do you think? Is this 0.5 Fib Golden Rule coming to push Bitcoin higher to its next ATH? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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This is a 4-hour chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD)This is a 4-hour chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) showing a key resistance level around $86,527 and a potential bearish move towards lower support zones.
Analysis:
Price is currently trading near the resistance zone, struggling to break above it.
A sell setup is suggested, expecting rejection from resistance.
The first target is around $78,500, with an extended downside target at $75,869 and possibly $71,580 if momentum continues.
A stop-loss level is placed above resistance at $86,527, indicating a risk management strategy.
The overall structure suggests bearish sentiment unless price breaks above resistance.
Potential Trading Plan:
📉 Bearish Scenario:
Short below resistance confirmation.
Targets at $78,500, $75,869, and $71,580.
Stop-loss above $86,527.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
A break and close above $86,527 could invalidate the bearish setup.