Bitcoin short-term view - BTC broke above $23,455👀Bitcoin short-term update
(a) BTC broke above $23,455👀
(b) next bullish target at $24,150🐂
(c) next bearish target at $23,127🐻
Have a great day😎
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Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
BITCOIN is having a consolidation similar to December.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) got rejected yesterday on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and fear seems to be returning to the market for no particular reason. The price is above both the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and more importantly the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), which is the long-term Support during bull runs.
The STOCH RSI on the 1D time-frame made a Bullish Cross inside its oversold Support Zone and the last time we had a similar occurence was on December 20. That was again with the price below the 4H MA50. It consolidated until December 30 after which Higher Highs/ Higher Lows started, until the Parabolic Rise of January.
The Bars Pattern of December - early January fits very well the price action from January 20 until today. In fact it matches perfectly a projected contact with the 1D MA50 (which as mentioned is the long-term Support) and timing a January-like rally ideally.
A +30% rally from yesterday's low gives a medium-term target of $29000. Would you agree?
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BITCOIN 1W MA50 and 1D RSI aligned with previous Bull Cycles!This is the 3rd week in a row that Bitcoin (BTCUSD) comes that close but struggles to break above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Technically speaking that alone is a major Resistance. But if you check at the same time the start of all previous Bull Cycles, you will see that it was the 'Resistance-to-beat' during all.
More specifically during every new Bull Cycle, every time the price rebounded towards the 1W MA50 after a market bottom, it struggled there for a few weeks before it broke convincingly above it (exc Jan 2012 marginal break but still corrected for a few weeks before rising).
What's more interesting is that this short-term weekly correction was achieved after an already massively overbought 1D RSI got rejected at (or near) the 88.00 'First Rally Resistance'. As you see this is what happened on all new Bull Cycle starts: April 01 2019, June 29 2015 and December 26 2011. And it is what just happened now.
The target after the 1W MA50 break-out has been the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which we call 'Price equilibrium' and is sitting at $32650. Notice how each Cycle regardless of length or price range, tends to follow a similar wave structure. Will the 1D RSI turning 55.00 be a good enough level for you to buy as in 2019 or waiting for 37.00 as in the first two Cycles?
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN 1W Supertrend is bullish and not looking back!We have used the Supertrend indicator on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) extensively, especially on lower time-frames with great accuracy. This time we take a look on the 1W chart where the Supertrend has been green since the second trading week of January. Throughout BTC's history every time the Supertrend turned green after such an RSI rebound, the bottom of the Bear Cycle was formed.
The strength on such Supertrend rallies is normally so strong that the price typically rarely breaks or more importantly closes below the supporting line (floor). Bright exception has been of course the build up to the 2022 COVID crash (which as mentioned countless times is a 1 in 100 years event, thus an irregularity).
This 'floor' of the Supertrend has now been lifted to $17240, which was unthinkable in e.g. December as it was a Resistance. Traditionally we don't see immediately pull-backs to the floor on the first Bull Cycle rally. Instead, when the price breaks above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), BTC has always reached the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) before a major Bull Cycle pull-back.
The 1W MA100 is currently at 36150 (and falling). So with the 1W MA100 around 36k and the Supertrend's floor at 17.2k and rising, does that look like a solid Risk/ Reward ration trade for you or not?
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Perfect structural repeat of the 2019 rally?On the previous analysis we talked about Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) emerging Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame and how it is clashing with the emerging Death Cross on the 1W time-frame. Well the 1D Golden Cross has been formed today and automatically draws our attention to the 1D Golden Cross of April 23 2019. This was formed just after the early 2019 rally begun. So the question that pops out is this: 'Is BTC repeating this rally?'.
So far we can surely say that the structure since the November 21 2022 bottom resembles almost perfectly that from January 29 2019 to April 23 2019 and that 1D Golden Cross. As you see on the chart, both sequences started with a Channel Up on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), then consolidation before a hyper aggressive wave that broke above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) that later formed the Bullish Megaphone pattern that led us to the Golden Cross of today. RSI wise we are on the very same Bull Flag along the price's Megaphone.
Following the Golden Cross, the 2019 structure rose another +150% from the day of the Cross to the June 26 2019 High. Obviously that rally isn't easy at all to be recreated as it was additionally fueled by the Libra fundamentals and a +150% rise from today's lows would put the peak of the rally at $57000.
Unrealistic or not, it is yours to judge, so feel free to let us know of your opinion in the comments section below! Are we repeating the 2019 rally?
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Bitcoin - BTC weekly EMA20❌EMA100 crossUpdate:
Bitcoin weekly EMA20❌EMA100 cross
Still record high negative DEMA indicator value with view to long-term DCA IMO ‼️
What do experienced BTC investors think... dear Crypto Nation ⁉️😎
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Disclaimer:
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The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
BITCOIN 1D Golden Cross vs 1W Death Cross. Which will prevail?Two major technical events are about to be materialized for Bitcoin (BTCUSD). On the 1D time-frame a 1D Golden Cross, which is when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), is about to be formed, while on the 1W time-frame a 1W Death Cross, which is the opposite, is about to be formed. So what do those conflicting formation tell us? And which one will prevail?
We decided to view this through the dominant technical patterns available. As you see right now the one that stands out is an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S), which is a pattern typically seen on market bottoms. This is one of the drivers that guide BTC at the moment. In similar fashion, it was a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern that formed the November 2021 market top and initiated the Bear Cycle.
The symmetry on that pattern is remarkable as the price dropped -52.50% from the H&S top to the bottom of the Right shoulder, and another -52.50% from that level to the bottom of the Bear Cycle. Similarly, depending on where the IH&S neckline is formed, we expect an proportional rise. If the neckline is formed on the best case scenario a little over the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) at 27000, completing a +73.80% rise, then another +73.80% would put BTC's next bullish wave to around $47000. If on the other hand the price peaks now within the green neckline and just below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) completing a +56.50% rise, then another 56.50% would but the top of the next wave at around $38500 before the next pattern emerges.
It is not unlikely to the medium-term High here as based on the 1D RSI Bearish Divergence (being on Lower Highs against the price's Higher Highs) indicates that the rally is losing strength. The 1W RSI however marginally missed the 60.00 mark and indicates that there is still room for the rally to grow before it turned overbought at 80.00.
Which one do you think will prevail? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin - RVGI indicator❌cross just occurred🔵🚨👀The RVGI indicator❌cross just occurred🔵🚨🚨🚨👀
Look at the great entry points🟢for Bitcoin when these crosses❌occurred in the past on the US10Y-US02Y chart dear BTC and Crypto Nation💥🚀😎
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Disclaimer:
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Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
Eviler long term chartThis is an updated version of the previous chart based on halvings again. Maybe the hype is wearing down for this cycle and the next 18 months will be a cool off period. And then about 6 months before next halving the hype starts up again. This would be near the beginning of 2020.
If the Bitcoin 25.2-23.3k zone cannot be crossed... #bitcoin the 25.2k-23.3k zone is an important resistance area. If this region cannot be crossed, my expectation is that the 11.6k-9.8k range is the first target, but I will prepare for a decline that may come up to the 6.4k-3.8k range and I will make a gradual purchase in 2 regions and wait for 48.2k-43.2k
BITCOIN The potential Resistance in 2023 based on the DXY.In continuation of our recent BTC-DXY cross comparison studies, we will quickly bring you today a trend-line that may have gone overlooked and can pose a real Resistance to Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in 2023.
As you see, if we exclude the March 2020 COVID crash period which is a non-technical irregularity, there is an underlying trendline on both assets, which on Bitcoin was the Support since late 2016 while on the U.S. Dollar (DXY) was its Resistance. A more controlled rise/ decline respectively may provide the true Resistance level in 2023.
What are your thoughts?
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Bitcoin - BTC On Balance Volume Oscillator❌🟢Bitcoin
We are out of the red cross❌phase since more than 2 weeks now 🚨👀
Chances of no lower prices than $15,563 are high IMO
Past false signal green crosses🟢consisted only of one cross so far
VERY bullish😎
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Disclaimer:
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Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
BITCOIN Major bullish signals aligned.Powell's icing on the cakeLots of euphoria yesterday after Jerome Powell's Press Conference where he gave the markets what they wanted to hear regarding future policy and how inflation is under control. The rates got increase by +0.25% but on a lower rate than the previous meeting. This may just be the icing on the cake for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) as technically we are close to three major indicators aligned for a huge triple buy signal.
We have moved up a time-frame to 3W to see an even longer term perspective that successfully filters out all the noise of short-term fluctuations. As you see, the RSI is already above its MA, the LMACD should complete the Bullish Cross on the next candle while STOCH is just below the 49.50 level. This is the last hurdle to overcome before BTC issues this triple buy signal as it is the level where STOCH got rejected on June 2015 and delayed the rally for another 2 months with one last low. However the LMACD Bullish Cross was formed after this low so if we get it on the next candle then most likely STOCH will be above the 2015 rejection point as well, or it will be invalidated.
Will this final alignment put the new Bull Cycle beyond doubt? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The Super Cycle Theory based on the USDThis is not the first time we look into the Super Cycle Theory, which is the idea that Bitcoin (BTCUSD) may have just finished its 2nd Cycle instead of the traditional notion of the Four Cycles driven by the Halvings.
It is however the first time we look into it using the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and our favorite CN02/CN20Y ration (Chinese Bond Yields 02Y/20Y). As you see on this 1W chart, this correlation is indeed eye-opening as it paints very efficiently the picture of the two Super Cycles.
The DXY (strong) pull-back shows that we are past leg (6), which is the bottom of the Super Cycle and have entered the rally phase. The Higher High on the CN02/CN20Y shows that we could be much closer to the start of the parabolic part than we think. If the DXY extends its aggressive decline, it will confirm the latter notion but a rebound and multi-month consolidation (on the DXY) will take us more smoothly into the rally phase.
Do you agree with this Super Cycle Theory based on the USD? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin surprise moveIt might not make much sense in the current mood because the majority of market participants expect either more downside or sideways price action for the next 12/18 months, but I feel the real surprise would be an upside move.
A strong move, forcing the many in disbelief to rush in mid-to-late on the way to an early top somewhere in the low 6 figures range.
I give this idea a 60% confidence rate.
BTCUSD Head and Shoulders reversalBitcoin has formed a Head and Shoulders pattern following the break-out below the Channel Up and the MA50 4H.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell as long as the price is under the 23500 neckline.
2. Buy above the 23500 neckline.
3. Further Sell under 22300.
Targets:
1. 22500 (top of Support 1).
2. 25400 (representing a +13.10% rise, a norm during this rally).
3. 20500 (top of Support 2).
Tips:
Textbook Bearish Divergence on the RSI.
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Bitcoin & Consumer Confidence Index by University of Michigan⚫️Update:
US Consumer Confidence Index by University of Michigan⚫️
Index with a bear channel breakout on the way up - needs to be confirmed above 65.2 dear Bitcoin and Crypto Nation 🚨🚨🚨
Exciting to see if a BTC🟠 #bullish run begins afterwards
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
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Disclaimer:
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Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
Bitcoin Retrace After 5 Waves?After some brief consolidation, a new buy signal has appeared off of the 23K level, but what is NOT obvious to the herd is the low probability. From the SWING TRADE perspective, this would NOT be a buy signal to capitalize on. There are two factors that emphasize this: level and wave count.
1. Level refers to support/resistance. At this time, Bitcoin is above the 22K support and about 1300 points below the 25K resistance. 25K is historically significant, and is a location where selling activity is LIKELY to assert itself. If you took a swing trade long from lower prices, this would be a time to give the trade a chance to see how it behaves IF it can probe into the 24Ks or test the 25K level. Can't it break through 25K like all the frauds like to promote? Anything is possible but it is better to respect probabilities than it is to believe in Santa Claus.
2. Wave Count: The bullish impulse I am referring to originate from the December low. It is possible to clearly count 5 waves into the current high. This OFTEN means the current bullish move does not have much left in it and that a broader retrace into the 22K or 20K supports is more reasonable to expect over the next two weeks, IF this retrace unfolds, it can potentially become a Wave 4 with the possibility of testing the high once more. Please note: IF this structure overlaps Wave 1, then it cancels out the entire expectation.
This analysis pertains to the swing trade perspective. This particular time frame has periods when the risk is too high to justify taking risk and requires a LOT of waiting (could be weeks). The solution to this is to work on smaller time frames to mitigate the large magnitude of risk while participating in the brief spurts of momentum.If the risk expectation is smaller, the profit expectation must also be in proportion. If you take a day trade with a swing trade price target, you are highly likely to be stopped out.
It is important to UNDERSTAND: Markets are HIGHLY random. This means a LOT of things: setups can appear randomly, levels can be broken randomly, markets cannot be forecast far into the future and ANYONE (especially those who HIDE from accountability) can make calls that appear to be right. IF consistency is your goal, then being able to recognize probabilities AND playing good defense is what improves your chances. Defense means cutting losses EFFECTIVELY or being able to AVOID a loss altogether. Losing trades and our own behavior are the only things we CAN control.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.