BTCUSD: Fvg to be FIlled?Hello. Relatively new in the BTC field, any feedback will be appreciated.
As seen on my chart, im expecting price to come back and fill a FVG formed on a recent dump. Seems that we have a somewhat decent bullish trend.
My entry is based on liquidity, currently set at 96206, but I am aware we might see a stop hunt slightly below.
First TP was set on a possible liq sweep reversal point since market does not really have a strong direction as of now, and Second TP is at the fvg start point.
SL is set right below a lower high to avoid getting stopped from a stop hunt, if it reaches said point.
Please, let me see your thoughts and if possible, to get feedback and learn more together:)
Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
BITCOIN Is the USDT dominance about to spark new rally to $150k?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been on a fierce consolidation the past few weeks, a lagging price action not helped at all by the recent market fundamentals.
From a technical view point though, the current BTC market structure is a Re-accumulation Phase similar to the Re-accumulation Phases of both previous Bullish Legs since the November 2022 bottom.
Those Re-accumulation Phases took place when the USDT dominance (chart on the right) posted a peaking 1D RSI struture similar to today's and the DXY (blue trend-line) was having a pull-back.
The current technical sequences matches the exact Re-accumulation Phases of BTC, which took place around the 0.5 Fibonacci level. If we apply this Fib structure now, even assuming the less ideal scenario that the 0.5 Fib is on the January 13 Low and not in the middle of the Re-accumulation, we get a potential Target for the upcoming rally at $150k.
SO what do you think? Can this unique USDT dominance pattern spark a new rally on Bitcoin to 150000? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Decoding the current consolidation. $112k to print soon.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating within roughly a 5000 range (100k - 94.1k) for the past 12 days. During all this time, it's been testing but never closed above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). There hasn't been a tighter consolidation of this duration in the past year and there is a technical explanation behind it.
The 3-month pattern has been a Channel Up and the last sub-1D MA50 consolidation before the current one, has been its previous bottom formation on its Higher Lows trend-line. The 1D RSI sequences between the two bottom fractals are so far identical and it appears that we are now on the way to complete Leg (f), which is the final step before a Double Bottom is formed. A new 1D MACD Bullish Cross may come as confirmation of the new Bullish Leg.
As a result, the market is close to its most optimal buy opportunity. Given that a 1.5 Fibonacci extension Target has been a fair expectation within this Channel Up, our medium-term Target on BTC after the new Bullish Cross would be $112000, which is still below the 1.5 Fib ext and very close to the top of the Channel Up.
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Bitcoin: Range Break Out This Week?Bitcoin is stuck in a tight consolidation that can be very confusing and costly IF you get too wrapped up in opinions and typical internet propaganda. To participate effectively in this you either play the range levels on small times frames (see my previous week's analysis) or just stay out completely until a decisive break unfolds. When and which way it breaks is ANY ONE'S guess.
The range support is in the 94 to 93K area. Use time frames like the 5 minute or 15 minute to confirm bullish reversals here and look for small bites. The coming week is the same story as the previous week. The 99K AREA is the range resistance and should be used as a reference point to gauge profit potential for swing trade longs or to anticipate sell signals for aggressive shorts. That is the game plan for the week UNTIL Bitcoin clears one of these price points.
The anticipated move (illustration on chart) is the same as the week before. Please keep in mind this market is sensitive to a variety of catalysts and has a tendency to be affected by the Nasdaq on a intraday basis. Unexpected news can come out of no where and throw off any analysis, especially longer term. This is why it is so important to stay opinion free while focusing on potential opportunities around predetermined price locations, Either the market delivers or it does not.
Part of being a savvy trader/investor is knowing when to simply stay out. Consolidations offer opportunities at the range boundaries, while the WORST place to take action is around the mid point which is the most RANDOM area. There is not much more to say than that. When the market breaks one way or the other, new profit and risk expectations can be adjusted for only then.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTCUSD: Crossing of 4H MA100 brings enormous rally.Bitcoin has turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.096, MACD = -559.600, ADX = 41.025) as it is rising aggressively today and just hit the 1D MA50. This is its major Resistance level, which when crossed has caused the two main rallies of 2025 so far. The first (Dec 30th-Jan 7th) crossed the 0.618 Fibonacci before pulling back, while the second (Jan 9th-Jan 20th) made a full +20% rally. As you realize, if we do get a 1D candle close over the 1D MA50, the target for the modest scenario of Fib 0.618 is TP1 = 103,500 and if it continues (which as some point it will since the Bull Cycle has at least another 6-9 months more) for the good case scenario of +20%, the target will be TP2 = 113,000.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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BITCOIN bounced on last Cycle's Pivot and targets $125k.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating every since the Double All Time High (ATH) formation of December and January. As we've pointed out in previous analyses, this is similar to the December 2023 - January 2024 consolidation.
What we haven't seen before and we bring it forward to you today, is that the January 2025 Low was priced exactly on the Higher Highs trend-line that emerged from the November 2021 and April 2021 Highs, i.e. the previous Cycle's tops!
To make things more interesting, we can see an identical Higher Highs trend-line that held the January 2024 Low (of the similar consolidation phase we discuss above) with an identical 1W RSI sequence as well. That was what initiated the February - March 2024 rally.
Assuming the current Low holds, BTC should kick start any time now the new 2025 Bullish Leg, which technically eyes the Higher Highs trend-line of the current Bull Cycle (dotted line). Even if it starts as early as this week, it should target at least $125000.
Do you think that is a plausible scenario, assuming the former Higher Highs trend-line, which has now turned to a pivot, holds? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD: 4H Bull Flag targeting 103,000Bitcoin is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.119, MACD = -816.800, ADX = 35.629) as it may have reached the 4H MA50 today but remains ranged inside a Channel Down since February 4th. According to the 4H RSI, this is technically a Bull Flag pattern like the one on Dec 26th-30th that was also formed during a 4H Death Cross. The Bull Flag bottomed and rebounded to the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. We can be bullish (TP = 103,000) at least on the short term.
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BTCUSD: Falling Wedge close to breaking to $105.5kBitcoin is marginally bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.917, MACD = -782.200, ADX = 41.331) but neutral on both 1H and 4H, as it is close to conclude a Falling Wedge. Today the price held the 1H MA50 for the first time after a test of the pattern's top, which increases the chances of a bullish break out. Buy only if the break out happens and target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 105,500), which happens to be just under the R1 level.
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BITCOIN This is what happened on the last 1D MA100 double test.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit yesterday its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the second time in 6 days and is reacting on a bullish note early today following basically 4 straight flat 1D candles.
We mentioned the importance of the 1D MA100 as a Bull Cycle demand level on previous analyses. What we didn't discuss though is how BTC behaved the last time we had a 1D MA100 double test on such short time-frame.
As you can see, the last time Bitcoin had a 1D MA100 Double Test within a 1-week time-frame was on October 10 2024 and the one before that on May 08 2024. The common characteristics of both those fractals was that the 1D RSI held the 43.00 level (just like it's doing today) and the price rebounded to hit the respective Resistance Zone from the previous High. Channel Up patterns emerged on both occasions, the difference is that in May 2024 BTC got rejected on the Resistance Zone, while on October 2024 it broke to the upside aggressively following the U.S. elections.
As a result, we can target at least $108k on the short-term. Since long-term Accumulation Phases like March - October 2024 only take place two times at most during each Cycle (and we've already had this twice already), we give more probabilities to an extended rally like November - December to a new All Time High. Long-term traders may seek to sell these positions when the 1D RSI approaches the 85.00 profit taking level (overbought).
But what do you think? Is BTC starting a rally to at least $108000? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD: Is it about to explode while the Dollar tanks?Bitcoin remains bullish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 62.733, MACD = 8478.500, ADX = 61.463) but neutral on 1D, which suggests that it is a buy opportunity long term. What can really help the price explode from this point onwards though, is a strong drop on the DXY, which has already shown signs of peaking. Based on the last 2 Cycles, it is out of the Accumulation Phase and is has completed the fake-out, which traps investors into thinking that higher prices are coming. This is where a bearish reversal has taken place in the past, lasting 399 days until its bottom, which is where BTC tops. Get ready for a full 2025 Bitcoin rally.
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BITCOIN Pure 2-month symmetry targets $102.5k and $108k.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been practically consolidating for more than 2 months (since November 22 2024) within a Rectangle pattern and what's more striking is the amazing symmetry it has been displaying.
Right now the price has broken above a Lower Highs trend-line following the February 03 2025 Low near the Rectangle's Bottom and every time it has done so within this pattern, a rally towards the Higher Highs trend-line started.
It is interesting to mention that so far the range from the first High to the last High of this trend-line has been 101 4H candles (roughly 25 days). Since on the new (blue) phase that started on the February 03 High, we had our first, we can expect it to conclude near the top of the Rectangle by February 26.
This technical symmetry can help us set our next short-term Targets. Target 1 is at $102500, just below Symmetrical Resistance Zone 1 and Target 2 is at $108000, just below Symmetrical Resistance Zone 2 (top of the Rectangle as mentioned). Needless to say, the current 4H RSI pattern resembles the bullish break-outs above both of the previous first Lower Highs fractals.
Do you think this symmetry will play out in the same way once again? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN You can't get a more bullish symmetry than this.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marginally breached its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) two days ago and immediately rebounded in a mirror price action like last year's bounce of January 23 2024. We analyzed this on our previous publication but what we bring you today is the amazing RSI based symmetry of the two fractals.
The dominant long-term pattern remains a Channel Up and this is what will most likely guide BTC to the finish line and the Top of this Cycle. This pattern displays two (blue) Accumulation Channels, which is the formation we're currently at.
In fact Bitcoin has most likely started the process of breaking above this Channel as the January 23 2024 1D MA100 bounce was the starting point of the Bullish Leg (green) that made a Higher High at the top of the long-term Channel Up.
As mentioned, what's incredibly interesting is the 1D RSI symmetry between the two Accumulation Channels. As you can see on the current Accumulation Channel, the time between the 2nd RSI Lower High (blue circle) and 3rd (yellow circle) was 25 days and between the 3rd and 4th (red circle) was 32 days. The respective ranges on the previous Accumulation Channel were 25 and 34 days, which showcase a striking degree of symmetry.
The Bullish Leg peaked on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension from the last High (red circle) and as a result, we can expect the new rally to follow an equally symmetric/ proportional rise and target the new 2.618 Fib at $145000.
Can this be the case by March/ April 2025 or is it to soon? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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$BTC - Value AreaThis bounce might just be shorts covering and/or hedges – a kind of mechanical reaction following a liquidation event.
If we are going to consolidate within the current value area (96.5k-104k), I wouldn't be surprised if we get an upthrust retesting 103.8k-104k range before rotating back to take out the swing low.
A potential level for shorting, but I'm only interested in shorting on signs of weakness or a strong rejection at that level.
Possible targets:
94k - 93.5k
90k- 88.5k
84k-80k
BITCOIN Can a 1D MA100 rebound reverse the 'Tariffs narrative'?Just a week ago (January 27, see char below) we made a case of why it was essential for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) to test and rebound on its 1D MA100 (green trend-line), if the market was to find the necessary Support to move it forward through the rest of the year and the Bull Cycle:
Well BTC went on to confirm our expectation and hit the 1D MA100 for the first time in almost 4 months (since October 11 2024).
That analysis was focused on the current Bull Cycle (2023 - 2025) and the recurring 1D MA100 rebound sequence within the 2-year Channel Up, which has so far provide its Higher High both times.
Today's analysis examines if this is a pattern that emerged and held during the previous Bull Cycles as well. The results are eye opening.
During the last two years of each of the past 3 Bull Cycles, a 1D MA100 contact has most of the times (9) met with an incredible rebound, making it the most efficient buy entry on such basis. It was only 3 times this failed to initiate an immediate rebound (April 2024/ ETF led rally corrected, April 2021/ Musk led rally corrected, March 2020/ COVID flash crash), all valid reasons fundamentally.
Is this new all-out Trade War another one of those events? Not impossible, but this chart shows that it is 3 times more probable for this 1D MA100 contact to produce an aggressive rebound. If we narrow the sample to just the last year of the Bull Cycle, it was only once that a 1D MA100 failed to produce an instant rally.
As a result, it is now more probable to see a rally similar to the one that followed the January 2024 or October 2024 1D MA100 contacts, which were within a +85% / +90% range. Even the 1D RSI patterns among the Cycle fractals at the start of each final Bull year are similar.
So what do you think? Do you expect this technical 1D MA100 contact to reverse the dismal Tariffs sentiment? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Price Bounce Back To 100K Area?Bitcoin has rejected the 105K AREA resistance (wrote about this for two weeks see previous). Risk for longs was very high in that area, if you bought, now you pay. The 100K support was cleared but there is some minor support around the mid to high 96Ks (see arrow). There may be a brief retrace from here back to the low 100Ks over the next day or two. IF the 95K area is cleared, the 90K support can be tested quickly. This is a very high momentum environment, the key to navigating this is paying more attention to the bigger picture and adjusting risk by sizing smaller.
Knowing your environment is key to adjusting effectively. For example, in the recent weeks, price action on smaller time frames has been extreme, moving 500 points in less than a minute. While this may sound great on paper, the problem is getting caught in noise will be very expensive, since the whole point of working on smaller time frames is to utilize larger size. This is where zooming out and getting smaller with the plan of averaging into a position can help to better control risk while minimizing getting caught in noise.
On the daily chart, pay attention to the levels and how price reacts on time frames like the 4 hour (swing trades). Notice the pin bar (arrow) off the 96K area recently. This serves as a point of reference for longs. A reversal candle or strong close on a smaller time frame like 4 hour or 1 hour can prompt you to take a smaller position with a much wider than usual stop (like 2 to 3K points). If Bitcoin fails, and price action stays bearish, you get stopped out but you never add to the position. You lose on small size. IF Bitcoin shows strength off this level instead you can justify an add, and aim for at least 2 to 3K profit objective (100K to 102K area).
The point is you are adjusting your risk to the environment. If there is any skill to this game, it is knowing how to adjust your style, size, risk as the environment changes.
The market gives the clues and that is the best source to acknowledge them from. Bitcoin has been in a consolidation since mid December with the 108K AREA being the high and the 90K AREA being the low. While the general trend is bullish, there are going to be numerous swing trade opportunities within the range, especially at the extremes. In ranging environments BOTH support and resistance levels can hold UNTIL the range eventually breaks. You are better off adjusting to the price action around the major and minor levels within this range rather than trying to forecast the breakout to 200K.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN This where things get interesting for the greedy..Bitcoin / BTCUSD has entered its parabolic rally mode, as we are in the final year of the Bull Cycle.
We are 812 days after the Bear Cycle bottom and on this chart we applied that range on the previous Cycle to get an idea of were we are in relation to the past.
As you can see we are just after a 1week LMACD squeeze, which in March 15th 2021 turned into a bearish cross that delivered a strong correction while in March 20th 20217 a smaller technical pull back.
In both cases the EMA Bollinger Bands Baseline (green) came to support.
This Cycle however draws more similarities with 2017.
It needs to be said that when BTC is in parabolic rally mode, it tends to spend more time above the BB Upper band (blue).
What this indicates is that any pull back towards the baseline should be bought as Bitcoin is now more likely to make higher highs above the Upper Band.
We project a smoother uptrend compared to past Cycles towards the end of 2025.
Be greedy, buy every pull back below the blue line and take profit a bit above it. Repeat until September-October.
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BITCOIN rejected on the MA50 (4h). 95k possible.Bitcoin is trading inside a Channel Down pattern which has just formed a Lower High on the MA50 (4h).
This is a technical rejection, which after holding the MA200 (4h) previously, now should aim for a final Lower Low on the next support level, the MA100 (1d).
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 95000 (-10.70% decline as the previous bearish sequence of the Channel Down and potential contact with the MA100 (1d)).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is about to cross under its MA trend line again, confirming the bearish move.
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BITCOIN Rebounded on a Double Support. Will it continue higher?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) experienced a sharp sell-off yesterday following the DeepSeek news but managed to recover more than 50% of the losses as it rebounded on the Double Support level.
The obvious level that catches your eye is the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) which was tested for the first time in 12 days. The second is the Pivot trend-line, which was formerly a Lower Highs trend-line initiating from the December 17 2024 All Time High (ATH).
At the same time, it almost touched the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of January's Channel Up. Technically that is similar with December's Channel Up, which also had a Pivot trend-line test that delivered a rebound and a Higher High to the December 17 ATH.
As a result, if the price breaks above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), we expect a Higher High (new ATH), on a minimum 112000 estimate. If the price gets rejected on the 4H MA50 however, we expect a Double Bottom test of the 98000 level (or slightly below), similar to those of December 23 and January 13.
The reason that both scenarios are plausible is the fact that they both got their 4H RSI oversold (<30.00) and then rebounded.
The above show that even in the event of a 96000 Low, BTC is a buy even on the current levels, as once again we are closer to the technical bottom than the Cycle's Top. The technical upside remains enormous in 2025.
So which scenario do you think will prevail? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Probabilities NOT Opinions.Bitcoin has not done much in the previous week besides defining the range of the trade area that I anticipated a week earlier (in a matter of one day actually). The key technical points are established and it is a matter of catalyst and confirmation when it comes to aligning with the potential trade areas that can develop over the coming week. The 105K AREA is the key resistance while the 100K AREA continues to be the key support. Price action confirmation in either one of these areas can justify risk for smaller time frame strategies.
This is a tricky time, and one where the wrong opinion will be very costly which is why I am a big proponent of probabilities NOT opinions. The broader trend is bullish which means resistance levels are more likely to break, UNLESS proven otherwise. With a double top now established in the 105 to 108K area, the higher probability entry for longs would be the low 100K area. Which can also offer shorting opportunities for smaller time frame strategies. IF 100K is cleared, that would increase the chances of a 90K test.
This may be a Wave 4 of a much broader Wave 3. There is no way to know for sure until the market breaks one way or the other to confirm. In bullish trends, support levels tend to be maintained which presents buying opportunities at least on smaller time frames at the 100K area, anticipating a test of the 105 to 108K. This type of price action can be classified as a consolidation on the short term and expectations should be adjusted for that.
What about a bullish break above the 109K area high? While the general price structure favors such a scenario, the question is what is going to drive the price? Instead of trying to guess, IF this is the path the market will choose, I would rather WAIT and let the market confirm before taking any action. Sure I would have to sacrifice better entries, but I am okay with that if it means getting on the right side of the price momentum.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN will reach $1 million in 2041.Bitcoin / BTCUSD hit last month the once unthinkable benchmark of $100k.
It took 2 Cycles to do so since it reached the previous benchmark of 10k.
The log sequence of hitting those benchmarks started at $0.10. It took quarter (0.25) Cycle to go from 0.10 to $10, i.e. x100 jump.
The next x100 increase was from 10 to $1000 and it took BTC half (0.5) Cycle to do so.
Then we move to the x10 jumps, 1000 to $10000, which took it a perfect 1 Cycle.
We already discussed above 100k and the pattern is obvious. For each of those logarithic jumps, Bitcoin needs double the time, i.e. it doubles the previous Cycle expectancy.
This means that for the million dollar mark ($1million), it should take 4 Cycles to do so (2 Cycles it needed from 10k to 100k x 2).
This gives us a rough estimate for the end of 2041!
Realistic or not in your opinion?
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