Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
BITCOIN Inflation down -0.5% a 9-month low! Is it truly Bullish?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is having an initial bullish reaction before the U.S. session opens following a more than expected -0.5% drop on the U.S. CPI to 7.7% from 8.2% in the previous month. This reading beat the forecast by 0.3%. Is a drop to inflation truly bullish for BTC?
To answer this, we should look at the previous 3 times that the CPI had a monthly fall. Since August we basically have falling CPI each month:
* On August 10 the CPI fell to 8.5% from 9.1% the previous month.
* On September 13 the CPI fell to 8.3% from 8.5% the previous month.
* On October 13 the CPI fell to 8.2% from 8.3% the previous month.
* And today (on November 10 ) the CPI fell to 7.7% from 8.2% the previous month.
As we see on the chart, the August 10 CPI fall instead of a rise caused a massive drop on Bitcoin. The September 13 CPI fall also caused a drop on BTC instead of a rise, though less aggressive. The October 13 CPI fall though did start a rally but not as aggressive as one would expect, but reasonable considering the drop was only 0.1%.
That price action has kept Bitcoin within a Channel Down since the June 18 Low and yesterday the bottom was hit making a new Lower Low. This time though, the 1D RSI is rebounding after breaking yesterday below the 30.000 oversold level. The last two oversold 1D RSI readings caused short-term rallies (May and June-August) which are highlighted (black and yellow lines). Their projections are illustrated within the Channel Down, both showing a touch of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) in 4-5 weeks. If it happens, that would be the first 1D MA200 contact since January 02!
Do you think this huge monthly CPI drop will make Bitcoin fall and break below its Channel Down or rebound and test the 1D MA200? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Begins to Capitulate Lower After 5 Months of IndecisionBitcoin has broken under the critical 17567 - 18892 support zone, a range that has held since the middle of June, opening the door to resuming the broader downtrend.
BTC/USD is also testing a break under the November 26th, 2020 low at 16200.
That has exposed the September 2020 low at 9813.
A push back above lows from June may shift the focus back to a neutral setting as the 200-day Simple Moving Average nears. The latter may reinstate the dominant downside focus.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
BITCOIN Nightmare fractal if this level breaksBitcoin (BTCUSD) is following the overall panic sentiment of the market after the Binance news and tested the Support Zone of the June 18 Low. A break below can set in motion a sell-off similar to that of May 09, which first hit the 1.5 Fibonacci extension and after some consolidation, moved to make the June 18 Low on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
What stood out then as the trigger of the sell-off was a Lower Highs trend-line that started on March 02 and then turned into Lower Lows that held the price action until the Support Zone. When it broke, the aggressive sell-off took place. On today's sequence, we have that (former) Lower Highs trend-line starting on the August 15 High, getting hit today on the Binance exchange.
A break below it can trigger that same massive sell-off with the 1.5 Fib extension being around 14000 and 2.0 around 10200. Another common characteristic of the two fractals is the fact that the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) was never broken and acted as a Resistance. That means that technically only a break above it can invalidate this bearish pattern.
So what do you think? Can the former Lower Highs trend-line save the day? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin - Price action with the MAsIn this chart I look at some basic overlays to the BTC chart; a Fibonacci channel, the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) and the untested support level at $12k.
I note the 1W 300MA is now above the prior low, which means price will have to break this level to find a new bear market bottom.
1D 50MA is currently the only MA offering support (at $19.6k) and if price falls below that level, all the daily MAs will then be cast as offering resistance against price appreciation. Not really a strong position for Bulls.
Notably, the Fibonacci levels within the parallel channel structure have been well respected throughout this bear market, including where price was rejected at $21.4k just three days ago. I observe that the earliest intersection of the $12k level with the channel levels is around November 25.
What do you think? Will the 1W 300MA offer a floor to the BTC price, or will we make a lower low? If a lower low, then will $12k become confirmed support?
Either way, it would seem that the 1D 50MA has to support the close today for Bulls to have confidence.
BITCOIN Can the Adam & Eve pattern push the price to 29-34k?Despite today's drop, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is still on its path of completing an Adam and Eve (A&E) pattern since the June crash, which is a formation consistent with market bottoms. In fact as we see on this analysis, which is made on the 1D time-frame, every market Bottom on BTC's previous Cycles was formed on a A&E pattern. Despite the different eras, even the RSI and MACD indicators seem quite consistent across those patterns.
Technically, the short-term target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The next is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which was the previous Support Zone during this Bear Cycle and is around $29700. But based on the A&E characteristics, the price can skyrocket by Q1 2023 as high as Eve's 2.0 Fib, which is around $34400.
Is this a realistic Target Zone for Bitcoin for the next 4 months? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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Common Double Bottom StructuresShowing double bottom structures that can be seen across the board, with Bitcoin being in yellow.
Its interesting because these altcoins are heavily following BTC which in the past hasn't always been the case.
I have listed three for example however there are definitely many more I have came across.
I wonder how the bullish reversal (consequent of double bottom) will play out :0
BTC Detailed Top-Down Analysis - Day 98Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard Nasr, as known as theSignalyst.
98 out of 500 days done.
I truly appreciate your continuous support everyone!
Let me know if you like the series, and if you would like me to change or add anything.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
BITCOIN Supertrend about to turn green after a year! Bottoms in?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading on a red (bearish) Supertrend on the 3D time-frame since November 2021, i.e. a year. If the price breaks above 23k, this very reliable indicator will turn green (bullish) again. On this time-frame in particular, it has the highest historic accuracy.
With inflation being the cause of this 2022 Bear Market so far (asset wide), a big part of it is Oil (black trend-line). In fact it is often the leading indicator of inflation. An extremely interesting correlation of Oil with BTC is that every time the Supertrend turned green after a Bear Cycle bottom, WTI Oil was already on a strong, counter trend (as the primary trend was bearish) rally after a Lower Lows bottom.
In ten years, this combination of parameters has always been the start of Bitcoin's new Bull Cycle. Oil has been on a bearish trend since March 2022 but posting a counter trend rally since the September low. Can this be the build-up to a Supertrend green reversal and a new BTC Bull Cycle? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Is LTC a leading indicator to BTC's Bull Cycle??This is a chart on the 1W time-frame of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Litecoin (LTCUSD). This is not the first time we do this analysis, those who follow for long will know that during the previous BTC Cycle, right when it was consolidating after the December 2018 bottom, we used LTC's price action to identify similarities with historic price runs.
And yes, in the past two Cycles, Litecoin has been an excellent leading indicator to Bitcoin, showing the way with a first rally into the market's new Bull Cycle. As you see on the chart, LTC right after the market bottom, tends to make an initial rally and diverge from BTC while it is still sideways (green zone). Shortly after, LTC explodes to the upside with a strong rally, while BTC only posts a small rise (blue zone). Right after this, the Bull Cycle begins officially.
Litecoin has been rising since mid October, diverging significantly from Bitcoin. We can claim that we are already in a new Green Zone as at the same time Bitcoin is trading sideways. Do you think this correlation will play out once more? And if so, should we expect a small rise for Bitcoin in the final two months of 2022 and a new Bull Cycle starting as early as next year? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN 4H Channel Update In the previous analysis, we mentioned the ascending channel, which now, after reaching the bottom of the channel, has started an upward trend towards the top of the channel. Now, with the breaking of the resistance range, we expect the price to increase.
Its not Buy or Sell SIGNAL
DYOR
BY : M.TeriZ - @AtonicShark
BITCOIN Complete 1H analysis. Buy above this level only!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is falling back after the Fed's +0.75% Rate Hike and Powell's press conference. From a technical perspective on the 1H time-frame, the price remains within a Channel Down pattern (blue) since the October 29 High but on the longer term within a Channel Up (dashed lines) since the October 13 Low.
We can see an interesting finding on this chart as this Channel Down is a recurring pattern since October 07. The price drops with the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line) as its Resistance and the catalyst that gives a confirmed signal to buy is a break above the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line). In remarkable fashion, both previous MA200 break-outs, gave an instant rise of +2.50%. Based on the 1H MA200's current level, a +2.50% rise would approach the $21000 mark.
Until the 1H MA200 breaks, the Channel Down would aim lower. A break below the Channel Up bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) can target Support (A) and further break-out Support (B) at 19240 and 18650 respectively. On the bull side, if the Channel Up extends fully to its Top to form a new Higher High, it can hit $22000.
Which break-out do you think will come first? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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Start of the next bull run?I was looking through some of my old trading strategies and ran across my CCI setups. What's interesting about this chart on the 2 week per candle is that we are currently crossing up from -130 and -70 on the CCI. This is the 4th time it's happened in Bitcoins history. Each time it has done so, it has been the beginning of a notable increase in price and has triggered a bull run. Is this time different?
BITCOIN Can it reach the 250-500k range based on the DXY Cycles?This is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) against the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the monthly chart. It is obvious how the two are (naturally) negatively correlated. When the DXY rises (green channel), BTC enters a Bear Cycle (red channel), when the DXY trades sideways (blue), BTC accumulates and starts the new Bull Cycle (blue), when DXY falls (red), BTC registers the 1 year parabolic rally of the Bull Cycle (green).
Last month, the DXY closed its first red candle after 4 straight green months. If this is the top of DXY, based on this model we should see it turning sideways, prompting BTC into an Accumulation Phase (blue). What is really interesting is that since April 2015, we see a clear Pivot Zone for DXY, which the price always revisits. At the same time, BTC has its own Pivot Zone which also revolves around its previous two Accumulation Phases.
If the same pattern is repeated and DXY's pull-back of roughly -14% hits its Pivot Zone, then Bitcoin may register the top of its next Bull Cycle within a (wide indeed) range of 250k - 500k USD by late 2024/ early 2025.
How realistic can this scenario be? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BTC ACCUMULATIONDear Trader,
This is my prediction in short-term for bitcoin based on WYCKOFF,FIBONACCI,SUPPORT+ RESISTANCE, SMC and some indicators.
I cleared my chart, because it was unreadable, this is the consumable one.
You can see my entry points and stop losses determined in lower time frame after the events.
If you agree please like my idea.
If you would change something please comment.
If you wanna keep updates please make sure you're following me.
BITCOIN Fibonacci charts the new Bull Cycle! It's already began!This is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame displaying all of its Cycles historically. I've used the Fibonacci Channel extensions to identify any possible correlations and how this can create a roadmap moving forward and project the next Cycle. To start putting the chart's indicators into perspective, the 1W MA50 is the blue trend-line, the 1W MA200 the orange, the 1W MA300 the red, while the yellow represents the Multiple 5 and the green the Multiple 6 of the Fib MA's.
** The next High **
For starters, I've made several publications on why the +.382 (horizontal) Fibonacci extension roughly calculates the Highs. I've plotted that on this chart again and as you see so far the 2.382 Fibonacci extension has roughly predicted the December 2013 High while the 3.382 extension, the December 2017 High. The previous Cycle though broke that progression and topped on the 3.786 Fib extension instead. This means that the top of the next Cycle doesn't have to be on the 4.382 Fib extension (roughly at $350k) but most likely will be in the lower 4.236 (230k) or even 4.0 (120k) tier.
** The Fibonacci Channel extensions **
But let's circle back to how the Fibonacci Channel extensions can relate to these patterns. As you see, the first two Cycle Highs have been (naturally for the first) on the 0.0 Fib with bottoms outside of the 0.5 Fib. The High of the next Cycle was on the 0.5 Fib with the Low outside of the 1.0 Fib. The Highs of April 2021 and November 2021 were outside of Fib 1.0 and the Low of June 2022, closer to the middle of the 1.5 Fibonacci extension of the Channel.
This pattern, though not perfect, it shapes fairly well Bitcoin's parabolic path over the years. Based on that, the next High should be either on or on the left of Fibonacci Channel extension 1.5 but most likely after its middle and the Low either on or left of extension 2.0 (probably middle).
** The Triangles and the bottom based on LMACD **
Notice also that all Cycles have traded inside an Ascending Triangle pattern until they hit their prior (All Time) High, and after turned parabolic for some months to complete the Cycle's Top.
As for those who are unsure if June was the bottom and if a new Bull Cycle now is not plausible amidst the current high interest and inflationary fundamentals, they can seek answers, only technically, on the 1W LMACD. As you see, we have completed the Ultimate Bottom Pattern: Formed a Bullish Cross and after a red rising histogram narrowed down, it has turned into green territory. MACD-wise, there isn't any other condition left to fill.
So if the bottom is in, is a top by late 2024 a wild projection to make? Can those Fibonacci Channel extensions identify the logarithmic path of Bitcoin and if so is $120k, $230k or $350k the next top? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN: Can hit 24k next month. Major breakout on 1D RSI/ MA100Bitcoin hit the 1D MA100 (green) last week for the first time in 1.5 month with the 1D RSI crossing above the Lower Highs trendline that started on January 05 2021.
We have seen similar RSI Lower Highs breakouts in all previous Bear Cycles, namely on February 16 2019 and June 13 2015. Common characteristic is that the RSI breakout happened at the same time with a breaking above the 1D MA50 (blue) and caused an instant test of the 1D MA100. It took 15 days in 2015 and 40 days approximately in 2019 to reach (and break with ease) the 1D MA200 (orange).
Based on the above Bear Cycle bottom occurence, we should be expecting a test (and break) of the 1D MA200 next month, which is now at 24,665. Thumbs up if you agree!
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