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Bitcoin-btcusd-btc

BITCOIN broke above both the 1D MA50 and 1W MA200! What's next?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has now broken above both the 1D MA50 (green trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). This is a critical benchmark as it last hit the 1D MA50 on April 21 (3 months ago exactly) and it has been trading below the 1W MA200 since the June 13 1W (weekly) candle (more than 1 month). As I've mentioned before numerous times, since the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) held as Support as it last did during the early March 2020 COVID collapse, a break above those trend-lines would be the first and perhaps most decisive signal that the Bear Cycle has bottomed. ** The TSI and MFI ** Notice how the True Strength Indicator (TSI) and the Money Flow Index (MFI), two key indicators for Bitcoin, has printed the same sequences during both the March 2020 and December 2018 bottoms. The TSI now just needs to make a new Bullish Cross (first since August 2021) while the MFI a break above its Falling Wedge, in order to confirm a new rally similar to those of April 2020 - April 2021 (blue pattern) and February 2019 - June 2019 (green pattern). ** Two possible rallies ahead ** For comparison purposes I've plotted those two Rally Sequences on today's price action. Note that this is just an illustration in an attempt to project the trend's action if the same pattern is repeated. If this is indeed the bottom of the Bear Cycle and the beginning of a new Bull Cycle, then the price is more likely to post the less aggressive rally of early 2019 (which was still much stronger than the previous Bull Cycles) as Bitcoin tends to still accumulate after a market bottom and posts the aggressive rally of the Cycle after the Halving. It is worth noting though that both projections show that they will make contact with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) almost exactly at the level they did when they originally played out. This is remarkable and goes to show that there is indeed a degree of symmetry between phases. So do you think that the break-out above both the 1D MA50 and 1W MA200 has signalled the bottom of the Bear and start of a new Bull Cycle? If yes, what projection is more likely for you, the green to $80000 towards the end of the year or blue to $200000 by mid 2023? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
26
BITCOIN hit the 1DMA50 for the 1st time in 3 months! Whats next?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 21. There are various patterns and trend-lines to consider at the moment, but mostly I want to bring forward the similarities with the November 2021 - March 2022 drop. ** Fractal comparison ** That sequence broke its 1D MA50 when first tested but pull-back back near its bottom shortly after. However it recovered equally quickly and tested both the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D MA200 proved to be the ceiling of that potential recovery as the price got rejected exactly there, which happened to be just over the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. It is worth noting that both sequences made their bottoms around the same time from their tops (75 and 82 days respectively). Also note the similarities on the RSI structures. The 1D MA50 test coming after the RSI broke above its most recent Resistance. ** Level's to consider now ** The 1D MA50 test on today's sequence, comes at exactly the same level with the Lower Highs trend-line from the top. That could add extra rejection pressure. In addition, it is exactly on the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the small Channel Up pattern that has been formed since the June 18 bottom. As a result, that's technically a triple level Resistance. A break above the 1D MA50, naturally targets the 1D MA100 and similarly above that, targets the 1D MA200. If the Nov-March fractal tells us anything, its that the market shouldn't be expecting a long-term bullish reversal before closing above the 1D MA200, which has been containing the price action below it since December 31 2021, so practically for the whole year! Do you think its time to change that? Would a break above the 1D MA50 signal a bullish reversal, for the short-term at least? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
5
Bitcoin: Bearish Break Likely.Bitcoin is stuck within a lower high consolidation that ranges between the 22K resistance and high 18Ks. Meanwhile, structurally and environmentally, NOTHING has changed. Basically this market is out of play until a new catalyst comes along. Let's talk about which way price is likely to eventually break. The short term structure is BEARISH and the 22K level has YET to be compromised. This resistance is a LOWER HIGH within the context of the bigger picture. Lower highs often lead to lower lows UNLESS a new piece of information comes into play. At this time, the broader price structure still favors a test of lows. Along with that, bond yields are inverted which is a bearish sign. What do treasuries have to do with Bitcoin? An economic recession is bad for the S&P and in case you haven't noticed, Bitcoin is correlated at the moment. On top of that, we have a Federal Reserve that is fighting inflation by supporting a rising rate environment, which further supports a very strong Dollar. These factors do NOT facilitate a bullish and highly speculative environment like we have experienced over the previous two years. For Bitcoin to rally, (especially to nonsensical levels like some self appointed "authorities" are calling for), the economic environment NEEDS to be encouraging AT LEAST. Even if Bitcoin manages to break the 22K resistance, it has many more levels to go before it proves that a change of trend is in play. For example, the 28 to 30K level (next major resistance) would have to be cleared at minimum. I called a short the previous week off the sell signal that appeared near the 22K level. It pulled back into the 18Ks. IF you go back to that report, I shared an update the next day pointing out that it would be wise to lock something in even though there was no conflicting signal at that time. Since then, a bullish outside bar developed and now price is trying to work its way higher. Could this be the rally everyone is waiting for? Probability is NOT in favor. The rational thing to do is cover the short for whatever you can and WAIT for the next sell signal. Your primary goal should be to mitigate risk, NOT chase profits. Greed is a liability of human nature and most retail traders/investors are not aware they are controlled by it. If you are new to this game, instead of chasing false dreams and listening to cowards who hide behind fake names proliferate nonsense, take the time to learn how markets work. There is NO hurry, Bitcoin nor the stock market is likely to turn higher any time soon. In order to make objective and effective decisions in any environment, you need to LISTEN to the market. You NEED to listen to PRICE. Markets are highly random and efficient which means NO ONE knows MORE than the market. That means markets cannot be forecast over long time horizons with any degree of accuracy. At the same time, it is possible to isolate opportunities on smaller time frames that are associated with a reasonable level of risk. Charts are not perfect by any means, but there is enough information on a chart to make effective choices. Listen to PRICE NOT PEOPLE. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
50