BTCUSD: This is a consolidation and we've seen it before.Bitcoin is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.151, MACD = -617.400, ADX = 24.376) as it hasn't escaped the right range it's been trading in since late December. The 1W MACD has converged but hasn't made the Cross yet and as long as it doesn't, based on the time cycles, this is most likely a short consolidation that has happened almost exactly during the same time both in January 2024 and 2023. When the 1W MACD made the Bearish Cross, we had the long consolidation phases. By next week we should see this consolidation break to the upside. Our target is the same with the early 2024 breakout, a +195% rise from the bottom (TP = 150,000).
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Bitcoin-btcusd
BTCUSD BITCOIN CRYPTO Short US inflation is due to back Fed pause after robust jobs data
Bonds stabilize after rout triggered by bets on fewer Fed cuts
Wall Street Sees Dollar Rallying Further as Trump Enters Stage
Bonds and Treasuries skyrocket
Inflation heating
FED possible interest rates hikes,but no cuts
ETHUSDT potential short-term correctionThe ETHUSDT market has recently experienced a decline, testing the key psychological level of 3000. Although it briefly broke below the previous support level, it soon retraced. Despite this, there are no clear signs of bullish momentum in the area, suggesting a potential lack of strong buying interest. This could lead the market to establish a range zone for accumulation. The market is likely to consolidate near this support level, with the range zone serving as both support and resistance. It is anticipated that the price could reverse and retest the 3000 level.
On the daily timeframe, the price appears to be forming an ABCD pullback, which implies the market might dip below the 2900 level. A similar pattern was observed earlier in 2024. The focus remains on the support zone near the 3000 level
Is Bitcoin Heading to $78K? Key Patterns Explained!
''BTC/USD: Key Supply Zone in Focus''
This chart highlights a significant supply zone between $94,858.98 and $95,979.83, marked by previous price rejections (indicated by the arrows). This zone represents a key area of resistance where selling pressure has historically dominated.
If the price revisits this zone, there’s a high probability of another rejection, potentially leading to a downward movement. Traders should monitor this area closely for potential short opportunities or signs of a breakout.
👉 What’s your take on this supply zone? Will it hold, or are we breaking through? Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
"BTC/USD: Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern"
This chart showcases a classic Head and Shoulders pattern, often regarded as a bearish signal. The price has already broken the neckline, indicating a potential continuation to the downside.
The target for this pattern lies near $78,490.59, calculated based on the height of the structure. Combined with the current price action, this setup suggests further bearish momentum could be on the horizon.
👉 Do you agree with this bearish outlook? Or do you see a reversal coming? Share your analysis in the comments below!
Bitcoin update 11 Jan 2025I don't often post bitcoin updates, not because I don't have anything to say, but because I understand what phase of the market we are in.
This phase as I said earlier in the posts is called distribution which will last until September 2025. After that I am expecting a correction of 50%+ from the put peak.
I have already made an assumption what reversal formation we will make.
Locally, it's January 11, 2025.
It is the beginning of the year, the market has already played Trump's presidency and as a classic “buy on rumors, sell on facts” the inauguration will be very soon, and I think the market will react down in a week. But after the positive news will continue, but we are unlikely to see in this cycle 200k for 1 bitcoin, but for me it will be a surprise. There will be a lot of talk about bitcoin. At the end of the year there should be euphoria with the new head of SEC pouring honey in the ears of crypto holders.
I'm not listening to anyone, I'm moving forward with my plan.
If you're reading me, there hasn't been a post in this series in a long time that I've changed my point of view.
I've actually started trading less cryptocurrency, it's now position trades on cycles. And it got a little boring.
So I've tapped into the traditional markets. And I'm more actively focused on them. If you're interested in any question, ask in the comments.
Best regards EXCAVO
Bitcoin: Can't Rally Because Of Rates?Bitcoin is consolidating within what appears to be a broad head and shoulders pattern. In my previous week's article I wrote about the break of the inside bar highs which had 4K profit potential (see previous article). I mentioned NOT to expect much more from there. Bitcoin has retraced back into the 90K AREA support zone since. Along with that a similar two inside bar pattern is present after a buying attempt which brings me to what I anticipate next.
The two inside bars after a larger bullish candle (see arrow) point to a mini consolidation which if broken can lead to a test of the 100K area (see illustration). Keep in mind, IF the inside bar lows are broken instead, the 90K area can be tested again. Since the broader trend is still bullish, and the 90K support is still intact, I believe there is still a better chance price breaks higher but without any major catalysts behind it, potential is likely limited. It better to take smaller profits in this environment until price can prove there is real buying behind it.
What about the broad head and shoulders pattern? I do not give a lot of weight to such patterns, and would not jump to any conclusions just because one is present. Instead I focus on the key support level which is 90K. This also happens to be the low of the previous monthly BEARISH reversal candle. IF this low is compromised, it is possible to see a test of the 85K area sooner than not. Again this is not something that can be forecast, the market has to confirm one way or the other through price action before we can assess risk.
One other thing worth mentioning is interest rates are nearing highs. While this may not have a major effect on Bitcoin (especially in recent times), it does strengthen the USD and puts pressure on anti inflationary assets like stocks, gold, etc. A breakout here can act as a another factor that can limit Bitcoin potential for the short term. So you can put your party hats away for a while.
In this environment (consolidation), WAIT for support or resistance levels, WAIT for confirmations and look for small bites. Most importantly WAIT for the market to reveal its hand before committing.
Thank for you considering my analysis and perspective.
EURAUD - Start 2025 with a BIG Win!EURAUD has given us a fantastic opportunity to get in at the very start of a BIG move.
We are currently in an ABC correction. We'e completed waves A and B and now currently in wave C. We're expecting 5 waves from wave C and looks as if we've completed wave 1 and currently in wave 2. We're looking to catch the rest of the move on the break of the trendline.
Trade Idea:
- Safe entry on break of trendline
- Riskier entry within the fibs or anywhere below invalidation
- stops above invalidation
- Targets: 1.6 (700pips), 1.156 (1100pips)
- Taper as we move lower
What do you guys think?
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
ARWEAVE ($AR) Chart Analysis : A massive Weekly Bull FlagA massive Weekly Bull Flag, characterized by a strong initial rally followed by a consolidation phase within parallel downward-sloping trendlines.
Bull Flag Breakdown
1. Flagpole:
The sharp rally preceding the consolidation forms the "flagpole." This demonstrates strong bullish momentum.
2. Consolidation (Flag):
The price appears to be consolidating within the parallel downward-sloping channel. This often signals a pause in the market rather than a reversal.
Consolidation within a previous support zone (as highlighted in the green area) strengthens the bullish case.
3. Volume:
Ideally, in a bull flag, volume decreases during the consolidation and increases upon breakout. It’s worth monitoring this behavior.
4. Indicators:
The MACD looks to be flattening, suggesting that bearish momentum may be waning. A bullish crossover could confirm upward momentum.
The Stochastic RSI shows oversold conditions, which might indicate a potential reversal to the upside if confirmed by price action.
Targets Based on the Flag Structure
1. Breakout Target:
If this bull flag confirms with a breakout, the target is usually measured by adding the length of the flagpole to the breakout point.
The potential target could aim for the $40-$50 range, depending on where the breakout occurs.
2. Invalidation Level:
A breakdown below the support zone (~$13-$15) would invalidate the bull flag structure and could signal further downside.
Key Levels to Watch
1. Resistance:
The upper trendline of the channel is the key resistance. A breakout above it with strong volume would confirm the bull flag.
2. Support:
The lower trendline and the support zone (~$13-$15) need to hold for the bull flag structure to remain intact.
Potential Triggers
1. Macro Events:
Bull flags often play out during periods of improving market sentiment or bullish catalysts, watch for President Trumps inauguration on Jan 20, 2025.
2. Bitcoin’s Movement:
Arweave (AR) and altcoins tend to follow Bitcoin's price action. A Bitcoin rally could push AR out of consolidation.
Did Bitcoin top? Greetings, traders! Welcome to this BINANCE:BTCUSD market analysis, where we focus on identifying higher-probability trading opportunities.
In this video, I analyze the current narrative, highlight key trading zones, and discuss the confirmations we look for to optimize our swing entries.
If you like the breakdown, boost the idea and follow to receive more ideas.
Trade safely
Trader Leo
ALTSEASON to $3 Trillion with BITCOIN at $200k??This is not the first time we make the comparison of the current Altcoin (Crypto Total Market Cap excluding top 10) Cycle with the 2014 - 2017 one. But it is the first time that we make this comparison, including Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles.
As you can see, there are striking similarities between the Alt Cycles:
a) Both bottom formations were in the form of a Cup pattern
b) A Pivot trend-line that turned from Resistance to Support
c) The MA50 (blue trend-line) was supporting once broken until the next Bear Cycle
d) A Bull Flag after the MA50 break-out found support on the MA50 and 0.382 Fib and started the Altseason (green Channel Up)
e) That Bull Flag started with a MACD Bearish Cross and ended on a Bullish Cross
It appears that we are now on the stage where Alts have the 1st consolidation of the Parabolic Rally. What's remarkable and the key difference between the two Cycles, is that this time BTC has diverged massively and made a new All Time High (ATH), while alts haven't.
Of course this is directly attributed to the Bitcoin ETF, which attracted enormous amounts of capital that pumped the asset beyond the technical restrictions of this model. This may be an indication however, that part of this capital may be diverted to Alts, once partial BTC profit taking takes place, as it has happened during every Altseason.
In any event, if the Cycle continues to replicate the 2017 rally, it should reach the -1.5 Fibonacci extension, which would translate to at least a $3 Trillion Altcoin Market Cap, while Bitcoin would be close to the $200k level! That may seem unrealistic in terms of market cap, but so did the levels during the 2020/21 and 2017 rallies. It all depends on whether Bitcoin can continues to attract outside capital with this pace, which will in turn grow interest on the rest of the crypto market and also on the rate of adoption (companies, consumer use of crypto).
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BTC - 4H Consolidation LikelyThe current low market volume is typical during the Christmas and New Year holiday period, as institutional players and many retail traders reduce activity. This reduction in liquidity often leads to lower volatility and smaller price movements. In this scenario, BINANCE:BTCUSDT appears to be consolidating within a well-defined range, as highlighted by the resistance zone around $99,000 and the support zone near $92,000.
With minimal external market drivers expected until trading activity picks up after the holidays, BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is likely to remain range-bound. This sideways movement aligns with historical behavior during low-volume periods, where breakouts or significant trends are less frequent. Traders should consider this low-volatility environment when planning short-term strategies.
Bitcoin Logarithmic Chart Since 2009Bitcoin is currently in a bull cycle similar to previous cycles. Bitcoin has a notorious 4 year cycle that almost everyone knows about due to it's halving. This means the current bull cycle should extend into late 2025. However, things may be a little different from what most people would expect this time.
This is an all-time Bitcoin logarithmic chart going back to 2009 which is when Bitcoin was released. This is a monthly chart so all the information can fit onto a single screen.
The red line shows a trajectory similar to an airborne projectile of some kind. As time goes on, the velocity is slowing. We all know what happens next when velocity slows down too much. Gravity takes over!
The green lines were drawn from the lows to the highs. I realize they may be off by a candle or so depending on data source or where somebody want to put the start/end times, but this doesn't change the overall concept. Every bull cycle has lower growth in terms of %. This is just a fact.
There are 3 important notes I want to make other than slowing velocity:
1) Bitcoin is already extended up to the red line this cycle. Which just so happens to coincide with the strong psychological $100000 level.
2) Notice how the growth percentages are drastically lower each cycle. Bitcoin is currently up more than 500% from it's low point this cycle. The previous cycle only made a 1829% move. So the high for this cycle may have already been made.
3) We are about 25 candle into the current cycle. Each cycle has different durations from low point to high point though. The shortest cycle was only 28 candles. Bitcoin may very well have made it's high point this cycle already. If not, there may be only a few months left of bullish movement.
See my previous analysis using a regular linear chart which I made near the top. Both long-term charts are in agreement.
BITCOIN'S NECKLINE IN THREAT!Will Bitcoin break the neckline to go lower, OR reverse towards the swing-high? There have been multiple rejections at the shoulder level as the price attempted to go higher on two past occasions.
N.B!
- BTCUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#ethusd
#crypto
#btcusd
Bulls & Bears cycles of #Bitcoin.Good day, dear investors.
We present to your attention the analysis of the last 2 #Bitcoin growth cycles and the forecast for the beginning of the bear cycle.
The data demonstrated a surprising coincidence of numbers:
- the bull cycle (the growth of the asset from the minimum quote, to which the asset has not returned) is 1050 days on average.
- the bear cycle consists of 365 days on average.
At the same time, with each cycle, the depth of the asset correction also decreases:
- 2017/2018 loss of 85% of the value of Bitcoin and 95% of Ether.
- 2021/2022 loss of 75% of the value of Bitcoin and 80% of Ether.
Our conservative forecast for the value of Bitcoin is 150,000. A positive forecast, in the event of the adoption of the "Law on the Strategic Reserve" - 250,000.
William Abagnale
Cryptanalyst of Vokcapital.
BITCOIN A long term investment target.Bitcoin is trading inside a Channel Up since the top of the 2017 Cycle.
It was supported by the 1W MA50 in August and that kept alive this Bull Cycle's Channel Up.
The last year of the previous Cycle was 2021 and throught its course, the 1W MA50 was in support.
Even if the 2025 Phase fails to peak at the top of the 8 year Channel Up, it can still complete the phase on the Channel's 0.75 Fib and technically looks like a minimum.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price as a long term investment.
Targets:
1. 250000 (0.75 Fib and smaller Channel Up top).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1w) should be near 90.00 when the Cycle top is priced. Use it as a complementary indicator in order to close the position earlier if 90.00 is reached before the price hits 250000.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Bitcoin monthly candles starting to look spookyBitcoin has given up its gains made in the initial days of the year following a very strong performance last year. But in December, BTC/USD formed an inverted hammer candle at technically overbought levels, potentially providing a bearish signal for the early parts of this year.
Each time the monthly RSI has risen above 70.00 it has invariably dropped back because of a sell-off in BTC/USD rather than a mere consolidation. We could see another drop to work off its overbought conditions before the next bull run potentially starts in the months ahead.
What makes Bitcoin more interesting this time is the fact the bearish monthly signal has been formed around a major milestones of $100K.
If the December low of $91,271 breaks, and BTC holds below that level, then we could see the onset of a correction. While the dip could ultimately prove to be shallow this time because of the impact of Trump and Musk, prices could still dip towards long-term support levels such as $74K or even $65K. Should we get to these levels, I would then expect to see a potential low and the onset of another rally. But we will cross that bridge if and when we get there.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
BITCOIN Cycle Top can be as high as $200kBitcoin (BTCUSD) has started 2025 on high volatility amidst geopolitical and economic news input. 2025 is the last year of this Bull Cycle, according to the Cycles Theory which for more than a decade has been very accurate at predicting Cycle Tops and Bottoms.
** LGC, MMB and Pi Cycle *
On today's analysis we present to you this view in more detail by displaying Bitcoin's Logarithmic Growth Channel (LGC) with the addition of the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB) and the Pi Cycle trend-lines. From the MMB we use its extremes, the 3SD above (red trend-line), which is the Mayer Top and the 3SD below (black trend-line), which is the Mayer Bottom. From the Pi Cycle we use a tighter range, its top trend-line (orange) and bottom trend-line (green), which form a zone that typically serves as more of a 'Fair Value' before the Bear Cycle's extreme selling and Bull Cycle's extreme buying (Parabolic Rally).
** Current Cycle in 2025 **
As mentioned, BTC has entered the last year of its current Bull Cycle. Based on this cyclical pattern, the 3 previous Tops have been either on a November or December. As a result, we expect the new Cycle Top to start forming by November 2025. The last one was formed above the Pi Cycle Top (never hit the Mayer Top) and on the 2nd LGC Zone from the top.
This suggests that even if the price barely tests the bottom for the LGC 2nd Zone from the Top, by November 2025 we should be close to $200000. Technically the projected Peak Zone should be within the 180k - 200k range. That may still be below the Pi Cycle Top, so technically we can argue that it is a fair scenario to expect and not an overly optimistic.
Unrealistic or not, this is what 3 separate traditional long-term models suggest.
But what do you think? Is a $180-200k Top a realistic expectation within 2025? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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