Short-term Bitcoin Analysis - Don't looking for long-term!!!Hello friends,
I always provide short-term analysis in my trades and the analyses I conduct because market conditions are variable and can change rapidly. The longer the analysis timeframe, the fewer factors and conditions it incorporates for potential changes. So Don't looking for long-term analysis!
Let's start with the Bitcoin analysis:
After hitting a new high, the price experienced a drop, but we cannot call this drop the end of the bull run or a trend reversal. We are simply observing the formation of a base. This base could potentially rally on the weekly timeframe, or maybe not.
As long as Bitcoin remains above the 58,200 to 59,100 level (the green zone from which the price bounced back), it can continue its upward movement. However, if this support zone is broken, the price could drop to a lower green level.
If you are a holder, you might consider lightening your portfolio if there is a sustained break below the support zone.
Keep your trading simple.
Bitcoin-btcusd
BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Detailed Technical Outlook
Since the beginning of June, Bitcoin is not in a good shape.
The market is trading in a minor bearish trend and formed
a falling expanding wedge pattern.
The test of a huge confluence zone based on a trend line of the wedge
and a horizontal demand zone triggered a strong rejection.
For now, the market is accumulating within a narrow range.
I believe that a bullish breakout of the resistance of the wedge
and a daily candle close above that can be an important bullish trigger.
The market may start a strong up movement then.
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BITCOIN Are you going to be able to handle this rally???Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is consolidating on the exact symmetrical spot it did relative to the previous Cycles. The blue circle marks that position historically and is that consolidation that always preceded the Bull Cycle's most aggressive part: the Parabolic Rally.
The Cycle bottom-to-bottom time range is fairly consistent to 1400 days and has been the bottom-to-top of the last two to 1064 days. Having broken above the cyclical Lower Highs (blue trend-line) on February, BTC historically posts only Higher Highs from here. The top can be anywhere within the $150k - $300k range for this Cycle, but as this chart shows, the important thing is to time it as closely as possible.
But what do you think? Is Bitcoin about to experience the start of the new Parabolic Rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN'S ULTIMATE PARABOLIC CURVE — EYEING $181,267.00The Parabolic Curve often emerges near the culmination of a major market surge, marking the end result of numerous base formation breaks.
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The Parabolic Curve patterns are commonly observed in growth stocks with innovative products, groundbreaking technology, novel business models, or visionary leadership. Typically, these assets represent market leaders — like Bitcoin for crypto.
💡 At the pivotal point of Base 3, symbolized by the "X" on the chart and situated at $25,700, Bitcoin is poised for a potential doubling in the shortest timeframe.
This pattern's hallmark is its staircase-like formation, creating short-term price range bases before catapulting to new highs, repeating the cycle multiple times in its ascent.
I've conducted a detailed analysis using Fibonacci tools and Elliott Waves, projecting Base 4's estimated range between the $60,000 resistance and $46,700 support.
Additionally, considering Fibonacci extensions and channels, the SELL POINT for the parabolic move is anticipated at range between $149,175 and $181,267.00
This parabolic curve, reminiscent of a rocket's trajectory, can endure for weeks or even months. However, caution is warranted as the pattern nears completion. The culmination of the rapid upward momentum often concludes abruptly, plunging in price even faster than its ascent.
BTC Bitcoin Bullish Flag, Eyeing Potential Triple Top FormationIf you haven’t reentered Bitcoin in the buy area:
Bitcoin has recently shown signs of being inside a bullish flag chart pattern, a technical setup that traders often interpret as a continuation signal. This formation typically suggests a period of consolidation before a significant price movement in the direction of the prevailing trend, which, in Bitcoin's case, has been upward.
The flag portion of the pattern has Bitcoin trading in a relatively narrow range, indicating that the market is gathering strength for the next move.
While the bullish flag pattern suggests a continuation of the upward trend, traders should also be cautious of a possible triple top formation. A triple top is a bearish reversal pattern that occurs when the price reaches a similar high three times, with intervening declines. This pattern signals that the asset is struggling to break through a particular resistance level, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish.
In conclusion, Bitcoin's current technical setup presents a compelling case for a bullish continuation towards the $69,000 price target, driven by the bullish flag pattern.
SOLANA - Top In Place! Down We Go...In our last analysis, we shared an unpopular opinion where we forecasted Solana to move down towards the $10 region.
We appear as if we've made the top and looking for further downside. The overall pattern we're seeing is a 535 Zigzag correction.
We had our confirmation to sell as the break of the red trendline, which we used to signalise the end of wave B and the start of wave C.
We're keeping invalidation levels for the bearish scenario above 210.
We'll be looking for further shorting opportunities. We'll be sure to update when we see another entry point!
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
Bitcoin: TIMING the market beat Time IN the market!We've heard the addage; "time in the market beats timing the market." That may be true of stocks and people that want to be lazy but results dramatically improve with this one simple signal based in Ichimoku.
That signal JUST HAPPENED!
The results over 13 years of Bitcoin's price history are clear even when the last 4 years are isolated. Do the backtest yourself and see!
BITCOIN Just flashed the strongest Buy Signal of the Bull Cycle!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) turned oversold on its 1D RSI on Monday and yesterday immediately rebounded back above the 30.00 RSI oversold barrier. The previous 3 times it did that exact same sequence since November 09 2022, it was an indication that the bottom was formed and a structured rise / Channel Up would follow.
Technically we can claim that this is the strongest/ most consistent Buy Signal of the whole Bull Cycle so far. Those 3 times turned out to be the most optimal long-term buy entries for investors that buy on dips.
The Gaussian Channel shows that at worst, we are looking at a bottom formation process/ consolidation of another 2 months (as BTC did from August 17 2023 to October 16 2023) but the upside on this Fibonacci Channel Up is significant, with a repeat of the lowest % rise these past 2 years (+91.05%) giving us a minimum Target of $110000.
Do you agree with that? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Are Bitcoin And ALTcoin Friends In Summer Consolidation?Since 2018 Bitcoin and other cryptos were mostly consolidating through summer before they eventually broke out, in September or October.
If we take a look at BTCUSD chart from Elliott wave perspective, we can see it unfolding a five-wave bullish cycle. Notice that final subwave V can be still missing, so after current wave IV correction that can take even more time through the summer, watch out for a bullish resumption within wave V.
25/6 update to yesterday update: BTC 9:00 UTC-4 18/6/2024 Short Hello everyone,
looks like yesterday's call: "In my opinion, there is still potential to move to Lower prices, but we need to take a close look at how the price will behave around 1M ATH Close price @ 61.375$. If we are able to blast through it, my next expected target would be 58.500$."
- comes to fruition once again. Extra 5% in the bag for those who stuck with trade at least partially.
So what's Next?
As we can see, after we arrive at our target 58.500$ we got immediate bounce back to the price I told you to keep an eye on. Reason Why I already mentioned several times in my previous posts.
As for my next trade, I can still see odds in favor of continuation to Lower price targets - 58.500$ again and depending on How it will act around that price on a 1-5-15min chart determine if we can see further bleeding or we bounce and revisit Higher price.
So for now, I'm of the opinion that if we reach around 61.375$ to 61.500$ again it would be still a great Short entry area. Having in mind that I will be using STOP LOSS around 61.850$ as protection in a case I'm WRONG and we go to the "bounce target" I mentioned yesterday which is around 63.8k$-64.2k$. If that happens, that would be my New Short Entry area.
Good luck in your trading
Joe
$BTCUSD Algorithm Sell AlertWe are long-time investors in Bitcoin and do not short the crypto. On June 18th, our proprietary algorithm gave a sell alert, indicating it is time to be cautious when we see a large red dot. Our strategy is to wait for a large green dot algorithm buy alert to start accumulating the crypto
To the $60K area would be better..It would be good if there was a fakeout to the $60K area on the falling wedge to trap traders and then pump strongly, if the $60K area is not strong then it will go to $56K again.
𝘪𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴𝘯'𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘺𝘣𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘰𝘧 $63𝘬 𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘢 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘴𝘶𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘶𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘶𝘮𝘱 𝘢𝘨𝘢𝘪𝘯.
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BITCOIN Hit 60k! Is the bleeding finally over?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) followed the medium-term June bearish forecast and as we projected on the following 2 analyses (see charts below), made the expected correction on the Support Zone around 60k:
Now the market has entered into a medium-term buy opportunity again and once we get confirmation from the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it will be a long-term one too. The May 01 Low and ultimate Support level is at 56550.
As you can see the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) has been resisting throughout the majority of the Channel Down/ corrective wave but the Resistance and true bullish confirmation was last time given (May 15) when the price broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As the top chart above shows, last year's accumulation phase (green) took another 2 months (August 17 - October 16 2023) to rise after the price broke below the 4D MA50, so we may see real movements at the end of the Summer when the price hits the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bull Cycle's Channel Up.
In any event, BTC is on levels that long-term investors start consider buying again. Our standard medium-term Target is $72000. Note also that the 1D RSI is massively oversold at 25.50, last time it was this low was 10 months ago (on August 26 2023).
But what do you think about this price action? Is Bitcoin a solid buy now that it hit 60k again? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Elliot Wave 3-4 : FINAL Correction before NEW ATHI've been watching this bearish M-Pattern for some time, and I still believe this is a multi-month playout towards a new ATH:
This lines up with my initial correction target using Elliot Wave Theory:
We see a very clear Double Top play out in the Total Chart, also indicating that it's time for a correction:
HOWEVER - I expect the bulls to be ready and sweep in lower prices when the right support zone is reach (whale zone), which seems likely to be in the 40k zone. It won't be a straight line down - again, a multi-month playout is likely.
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CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Possible Double-Top Targeting 60-63kIf 67k is lost and not reclaimed, Bitcoin may target a drop down to ~63k and then 60-61k (around 60.6k).
This relates to a couple of other charts previously posted:
A smaller double-top on the 4 hour chart that is already confirmed and hit TP 1, which is likely headed towards TP 2:
A daily chart that is targeting 73-75k if it can hold 60k:
BTC - Daily TR phaseIn the daily timeframe, Bitcoin is navigating within a defined trading range, characterized by a descending channel with a gentle slope. This pattern suggests a period of consolidation following the substantial bullish momentum observed earlier in the year. The channel's boundaries are formed by resistance around the $73,000 level and support near $60,000. The gradual decline of the channel reflects a controlled correction rather than a sharp drop, which can often indicate a healthier retracement phase within a larger bullish trend.
Observing recent price action, Bitcoin has encountered resistance twice within this descending channel, failing to break through the $72,000 zone. Each attempt has resulted in a pullback, highlighting the strength of the resistance level. The current price action suggests a possible decline towards the support zone at the lower boundary of the channel. Despite these pullbacks, there is a possibility that Bitcoin may find support above the lower end of the channel, potentially around $60,000 to $62,000. This would reflect buyers stepping in at higher levels, indicating underlying bullish sentiment even within the corrective phase.
The behavior within this channel is critical for anticipating the next move. If Bitcoin finds support higher than the channel's bottom, it could set up for a bullish breakout in the future, targeting a move back towards and potentially above the resistance zone. Conversely, a failure to hold these higher support levels might lead to a test of the channel's lower boundary, necessitating a closer watch on the $60,000 support area for potential buying opportunities. Overall, the descending channel should be monitored for signs of consolidation, accumulation, and possible reversal, which could provide clues to the next major move for Bitcoin.
$61,357 is the 2021 highest monthly candle closeMaintaining this on a closing basis for JUNE & JULY
is essential to ensure we haven't prematurely topped out
we did have some topping signals
namely the #bitcoin ETF approval and going live
and Andrew Tate destroying the #Solana network :)
It would not be entirely disastrous in BTC ends the calendar year around 50k but it would actually give fuel for a full 4 year cycle
I am still leaning into this being a Bear Trap
And a MASSIVE #Altcoin shakeout.
and the #MTGOX distribution not having much effect
(remember they got hacked for 700,000 coins and only have 140k to reimburse )
Bitcoin's Momentum Is Slowing Down (BLX Chart)As I'm sure you've noticed, my posts have really slowed down. I'm just focusing on other things in my life, and it's mostly been good. Some hard times very recently, but that's how it goes. I hope you are all alright and trading safely :)
Now...to Bitcoin. Volume is declining overall as less actual Bitcoin is traded. Hardly any coins have been sent to exchanges, when compared with the past. Bulls say this is a good thing, due to less supply being available, which in theory pushes up price. However, if demand is lacking overall, there is not much that can be done. Bulls therefore hope that the new ETF's provide enough demand to keep the all time highs coming.
Momentum is also slowing down, hence the longer term monthly bearish divergences in the Ultimate Oscillator.
It's interesting to note that the total crypto market cap (TOTAL) has not made a new all time high.
Unless Bitcoin can get above its curved channel, growth will continue to slow down. For bulls, the hope is that Bitcoin continues to outperform traditional markets. We'll see what happens! Above, I've provided both long term bullish and long term bearish scenarios. As for what could send Bitcoin back to $3k or lower? It would probably involve forced selling, particularly by someone like Michael Saylor.
On the weekly chart, it's possible Bitcoin is simply consolidating before the next leg up. Seller volume is declining. Unless we see a huge push down before this coming Sunday, it's very possible the recent lows are set and price will make a new all time high.
There is also room to test some lower levels based on these trendlines:
$53k and FWB:42K are major levels buyers would be defending if price drops lower.
For now, $60k is being defended. Need a more convincing bounce though, to prove the selling is over.
There are more options than that, but this is currently the way I'm looking at it. Doesn't mean I'll be right or wrong, but that's how it is! I'm trying to provide both bullish and bearish options so that my bias doesn't take over.
I'm still positioning myself short. My opinion is that Bitcoin has a critical mass, or maximum price, and that there are some signs pointing to Bitcoin's over-saturation. This includes the lack of new addresses, decrease in volume, and lack of overall interest from the everyday person. The irony is that if all of a sudden everyone started talking about Bitcoin, we'd probably be near a top. So, you may take this as a bullish argument.
Anyway, thank you for reading and for your support. This is not meant as financial advice. This is purely speculative!